Mr. Meeks, if someone wanted to leave the EU because they wanted control of trade, how do you square that? The vote was Leave or Remain, not approving or disapproving of either campaign.
May is negotiating, very poorly, our departure. Nobody made her trigger it prematurely. Nobody made her call (and then spectacularly bungle) an early election. Nobody prevented her planning for no deal. Nobody forced her to seek to retain as close as relationship as possible with the EU rather than seeking to optimise the opportunities of governing ourselves.
And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.
Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?
Labour is about working people representing themselves and using government to meet our needs.
It is not about patricians and do gooders trying to save us. We can look after our own.
Mr. Meeks, if someone wanted to leave the EU because they wanted control of trade, how do you square that? The vote was Leave or Remain, not approving or disapproving of either campaign.
May is negotiating, very poorly, our departure. Nobody made her trigger it prematurely. Nobody made her call (and then spectacularly bungle) an early election. Nobody prevented her planning for no deal. Nobody forced her to seek to retain as close as relationship as possible with the EU rather than seeking to optimise the opportunities of governing ourselves.
And nobody on the Leave side is recognising that she has negotiated on the basis of the referendum campaign that they fought. If those weren’t their priorities, they have only themselves to blame.
Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
Quite. The DUP were never the sharpest tools but they had effective leadership. Foster has her own little (in NI cash terms, huge) corruption scandal going on so is wrapping herself in the union flag. Tactically that might be ok, strategically she’s wandering around a minefield blindfolded.
Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Well quite - the hand wringers of the modern day really lack any ability to think critically so consumed are they by their guilt of being white, middle-aged and comfortably off.
Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.
The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.
In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.
Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.
Mr. Jonathan, disagree. If nobody likes the deal, the nation is united.
Mr. Meeks, holding people who aren't negotiating to account for the way the negotiation has been mishandled is an odd view.
I think you are wrong - they are the very people seeking to torpedo a deal which is about as good as any serious commentator ever expected to get and it reflects quite accurately the 52/48 split. Of course the deal is bad, it is what Brexit was always going to be.
All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
That's all very well , but both sides aren't telling the public the truth about Brexit.
I think Alastair is right - MPs should take a view on the deal and then ask the public, either:
Remain vs the Deal (if it's been approved) or Remain vs No Deal (if it's been rejected)
with, to be fair, some clear reassurance that even No Deal won't mean total paralysis, and we'll aim to settle for WTO status and normal 3rd party trading.
I think the EU would be willing to wait for such a decision, as they'd see a fair chance of Remain, which they would still, eye-rolling and all, prefer.
On SquareRoot's point, every democratic vote in Britain is accompanied by a legion of lies and half-truths. The electorate mostly work their way through them.
Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
They weren’t priorities. Being unpleasant to foreigners was. So your consternation is a consequence of Leaver priorities as expressed through the referendum campaign. Blame the Leavers who thought that was a good way to campaign.
And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.
Why not? Guatemala is a source of avacados, used in guacamole, which as we know the people of Hartlepool consume in huge quantities, instead of mushy peas. According to its former MP.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city firms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.
There's that sneering metropolitan putdown which helped drive the Brexit vote again.
Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?
Really, Most people I know, even Labour folk think he's a lefty loon.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
Customs union didn't come up once with the leave voters I spoke to
Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?
Really, Most people I know, even Labour folk think he's a lefty loon.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
None of the final polls had Remain ahead by 10% or more.
However if Leave with No Deal wins fine, it will likely be economically devastating and many Leave voters could lose their jobs and the UK could break up but fair enough, they cannot say they were not warned.
They would have voted to Leave on the No Deal terms given not on terms of the 'easiest Deal in history' with the EU or staying in the single market all of which were claimed as options by some Leavers in EUref1
May can win the vote if she talks about the future FTA, the powers the UK will have, and what she'll use them for. There are tentative signs she is starting to recognise this.
She will lose if she mentions the Withdrawal Agreement (of which 95% is about a maximum 45 month transition period) again after Sunday.
What are these imaginary powers she will get from a future FTA, what Utopia is she promising us.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.
There's that sneering metropolitan putdown which helped drive the Brexit vote again.
Funny, I thought it was a sneering putdown of metropolitans.
Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
Customs union didn't come up once with the leave voters I spoke to
I campaigned a lot during the referendum, including in Morris Dancer’s patch, the customs union was mentioned once, Northern Ireland never by Leavers.
And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.
There's that sneering metropolitan putdown which helped drive the Brexit vote again.
Funny, I thought it was a sneering putdown of metropolitans.
Wonderful moment in an interview at a school in Bristol:
'I'm afraid you come across as very condescending Dr because you simply can't understand an inner-city setting.'
Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
If you really believe that the mass of the electorate understands what the Customs Union is and has a view on it or gives a shit about Ulster you’re a sheltered and ignorant fool. It was all about immigrants and proper lightbulbs.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
None of the final polls had Remain ahead by 10% or more.
However if Leave with No Deal wins fine, it will likely be economically devastating and many Leave voters could lose their jobs and the UK could break up but fair enough, they cannot say they were not warned.
They would have voted to Leave on the No Deal terms given not on terms of the 'easiest Deal in history' with the EU or staying in the single market all of which were claimed as options by some Leavers in EUref1
I found it fascinating that Hartley Brewer was not really in favour of gambling but yet in favour of a no deal Brexit on QT. If that's not a gamble with the whole country I have no idea what is. Of course she's one of the media vox pops that'll be completely unaffected by no deal.
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.
Surveys also showed that the desireless than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?
Corbyn is not talking towhistling their core it will happen again.
That’s a but not a majority.
Mays hunting dog whistles helped push me into the arms of Corbyn. Little did I know that was a critical part of her integrated no deal Brexit policy. How foolish I was.
Attacks on EU immigrant queue jumpers and the like will certainly help to keep the fragile Labour coalition together. May’s sour, xenophobic nativism, combined with the sheer lunacy of the Bucanneers, are very good reasons to prevent the Tories winning, I do concede. And if it were not for the Corbyn factor Labour would get my vote without hesitation. But who do you choose when the fight is between two racists?
The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last y will do the rest.
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.
Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?
Corbyn is not talking to centrists like us because he doesn’t need to. Enough of us will break for him as the lesser of two evils. Many did last time having sworn they never would. When you get into a campaign with Tories dog whistling their core it will happen again.
Actually centrists are moving to the Tories post Deal, Yougov had 7% of 2017 LDs now backing the Tories and 3% of 2017 Labour voters backing the Tories even as the Tories lose 7% of their 2017 vote to UKIP for not being Leave enough. Overall as a result the Tories lead Labour with Yougov 39% to 36%
If we want to sell product into the EU as a third country then you need to abide by EU standards. Simple as that.
We can, of course, ask for different (higher or lower) standards for the U.K. market but our exporters would need to then decide whether it is worth manufacturing to twi sets of standards. For some it will be for others not.
In practice those areas would be very limited. I would expect that, over time, we will have better standards in financial services (some tougher, some looser) but that the EU is u likely to withdraw equivalence (in the way it treats US regulation as equivalent). I’d also like to see higher standards in animal welfare where we have always been on the stricter end.
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last y will do the rest.
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.
Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?
Corbyn is not talking to centrists like us because he doesn’t need to. Enough of us will break for him as the lesser of two evils. Many did last time having sworn they never would. When you get into a campaign with Tories dog whistling their core it will happen again.
Actually centrists are moving to the Tories post Deal, Yougov had 7% of 2017 LDs now backing the Tories and 3% of 2017 Labour voters backing the Tories even as the Tories lose 7% of their 2017 vote to UKIP for not being Leave enough. Overall as a result the Tories lead Labour with Yougov 39% to 36%
7% of 2017 LibDems or Brian as he is known to his friends.
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.
Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?
Indeed, Tories got a 10% swing from Labour in the Bush Hill Park by election in Remain voting Enfield on Thursday after May got her Deal. In 2017 Enfield swung to Labour to try and stop hard Brexit with Labour gaining Enfield Southgate from the Tories and increasing its majority in Enfield North and Edmonton
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
Mr. Observer, Corbyn's an order of magnitude worse. When has May marched beneath banners of genocidal dictators? She has her many, many faults, but I'm not aware of her laying wreaths for anyone unworthy, or appointing as her economic chief someone who describes himself as a Marxist and wants to take down capitalism.
Mr. Observer (2), what's the verbal equivalent of a tin ear? A lead tongue? A granite larynx?
May's record of unforced errors and stupid little mistakes (cf the reduction of FOBT stakes, magically transforming a good government policy into terrible headlines) is remarkable.
I'd still take the mediocrity over the Marxist every day of the week, though.
MD, you are very naive, May supports and arms the despots and helps them murder children, just she has not got the guts to do it openly. Thatcher wanted Mandela hanged , today's despots can be tomorrow's freedom fighters. May and the Tories support plenty of really nasty people.
Lol these Brexiteers are a wildly different type to those found in the wild out here
I don’t interpret that as saying they would support Remain.
I think they are emphasising this is a truly awful deal in their view.
The fundamental issue is the breakdown in trust. If we trusted the EU we could sign up to the backstop. But we don’t because of the idiocy they have demonstrated over the last 2 years
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
I do agree there are some xenophobes in Scotland as well, and you think that exonerates the xenophobic and racist behaviour that is rife in England right up to the PM.
Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.
The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.
In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.
Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.
Foster really is clueless, not only is Corbyn friends with Sinn Fein and a republican who supports a United Ireland as does McDonnell, polling in Northern Ireland shows a majority of Northern Irish voters would vote for a United Ireland over a hard border, Northern Irish Catholics overwhelmingly
You make some good points here about the problems. There is a lot of wishful thinking going on with a lot of the available options, from Labour and the Tory rebel 'it'll work out somehow don't worry' option to the 'remain will definitely win so dontworry' option,
Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.
The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.
In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.
Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.
She clearly is either as thick as an Irish bog or favours a united Ireland as that is what Corbyn will give her.
I cannot believe May is unaware that the DUP will bring her down if the deal goes through so i presume foster is talking to other Tory mps rather than May, since whatever one thinks of her deal May clearly believed it is more important than preserving the government too, so pointing out the DUP will happily bring about Corbyn won't impact May.
And good deal or not the principal of that is sound. Brexit is more important than fearing a Corbyn government.
I don't see a path to an outcome the DUP could possibly like.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
The issue then is that the messaging is
1. The voters told us to leave 2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order 3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
Except when they are Russing to judgement.
You appear to be Hungary for more.
Yup I'm off to Iceland this morning.
But will anyone be found to Serbia when you get there?
Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.
Revenge is like trying to hurt your enemy by drinking poison yourself.
And yet people will do it. We've seen people on here happily admit to that intention and motivation. People vote for all sorts of reasons and many others will often think those reasons are bad, but they'll still do it.
Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNC
All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
The issue then is that the messaging is
1. The voters told us to leave 2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order 3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
The issue then is that the messaging is
1. The voters told us to leave 2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order 3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over
I didn’t say it was good. The other options are worse.
I found it fascinating that Hartley Brewer was not really in favour of gambling but yet in favour of a no deal Brexit on QT. If that's not a gamble with the whole country I have no idea what is. Of course she's one of the media vox pops that'll be completely unaffected by no deal.
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.
Polls can be wrong.
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
Except when they are Russing to judgement.
You appear to be Hungary for more.
Yup I'm off to Iceland this morning.
But will anyone be found to Serbia when you get there?
I'm off as well. Have a good weekend.
Good - your jokes are a [S]pain in the proverbials!
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....
One would hope rUK would negotiate with more strategic vision and flexibility than the EU have.
The DUP have calculated that a no-deal Brexit with no backstop kills the Good Friday Agreement. That is their goal and that explains their behaviour.
It will also lead to a United Ireland as Northern Irish voters polled prefer a United Ireland to a hard border with the Republic, especially Catholics, unless Foster is ready to go full Iain Smith and declare UDI for Protestant Ulster?
Ironically if she did and Northern Ireland left the UK GB might be able to get the Canada style FTA it has always wanted as Barnier has always offered that for GB but not Northern Ireland
The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.
Without wishing to be an apologist for the House of Saud -
That remark is simply wrong.
The Tories have been chums with the nastiest of the nasty throughout the years , they are no better than Corbyn, just nastier.
The SNP's ex-leader is cuddling up well with the mouthpiece of not-at-all-nasty Putin ...
Cuckoo arrives and not yet spring, give us an anecdote about your best pal Erdogan nutty.
Eliza, when faced with an uncomfortable truth, it's best not to divert with an absolute lie.
Can you ask your drunken first-year programmers to get some help, as whilst you're patently artificial, there's precious little intelligence in your implementation.
All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
The issue then is that the messaging is
1. The voters told us to leave 2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order 3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over
What's your solution? I'm content with deal being in a referendum but it is pointless since it would only occur after hundreds of Mps on both sides said it was crap.
No deal instead? Maybe it wont be as bad as People say i guess but what a gamble. GE is even more a distraction. There's no time to negotiate significantly and no incentive for the EU to do so.
Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNC
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline Brexiteer
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....
One would hope rUK would negotiate with more strategic vision and flexibility than the EU have.
That would be nice but i fear it is beyond politics to manage that.
Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNC
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline Brexiteer
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNC
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline Brexiteer
As with her deal, May is the 'least worst' option - a Remainer/second referendum PM could just as easily be VONC by the ERG
Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little Englanders
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....
One would hope rUK would negotiate with more strategic vision and flexibility than the EU have.
Leavers would be in just as much a mood to punish Scotland for leaving the UK as the EU has been to punish the UK for leaving the EU.
Plus ironically the harder Brexit gets and the more it looks like No Deal the greater the economic damage not only to the UK with its largest market, the EU but also potentially to an independent Scotland with its largest market, England
Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNC
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline Brexiteer
Tory MPs are going around essentially calling each other traitors. The idea there's no chance a few of them might just say fuck it and vote against even at the cost of expulsion seems unwise. They are no longer a party they are a disorganised scrum at best.
Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNC
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline Brexiteer
As with her deal, May is the 'least worst' option - a Remainer/second referendum PM could just as easily be VONC by the ERG
Exactly. The same applies with Corbyn too with the voters
The pound, and the Bank of England moves to Edinburgh, and Scottish people get free access to English public services but not vice versa Otherwise it's not really leaving. If England doesn't like it they're evil Nazis.
The U.K. can either maintain the full union of the four British nations under Westminster’s authority — or it can end freedom of movement, a key motivator for Leave voters worried about immigration. It can’t do both.
Is May stronger or weaker than she was on polling day 2017? I
Corbyn is probably in my estimations is about back where he was. The Liberals are against the odds weaker. That might help May.
In what way?
Cable is useless.
Yes but how does that help May much? I think the effect is negligible.
Cable and LDs really have struggled in the current climate, maybe it is the media (ie less on BBC QT) and maybe it is the party still reeling post 2015 but they need some magic and fast. I was hoping a byelelction may have perked things up but nothing doing,
They need a selling point and really need to get a grip on how it is sold
Is May stronger or weaker than she was on polling day 2017? I
Corbyn is probably in my estimations is about back where he was. The Liberals are against the odds weaker. That might help May.
In what way?
Cable is useless.
Yes but how does that help May much? I think the effect is negligible.
Cable and LDs really have struggled in the current climate, maybe it is the media (ie less on BBC QT) and maybe it is the party still reeling post 2015 but they need some magic and fast. I was hoping a byelelction may have perked things up but nothing doing,
They need a selling point and really need to get a grip on how it is sold
All anyone probably knows is they are for remain, but labour still get the nod over them there.
Comments
May is negotiating, very poorly, our departure. Nobody made her trigger it prematurely. Nobody made her call (and then spectacularly bungle) an early election. Nobody prevented her planning for no deal. Nobody forced her to seek to retain as close as relationship as possible with the EU rather than seeking to optimise the opportunities of governing ourselves.
It is not about patricians and do gooders trying to save us. We can look after our own.
As an aside I’m looking like even more of a visionary now.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/03/18/if-the-dup-can-make-martin-mcguinness-deputy-first-minister-of-northern-ireland-then-we-shouldnt-rule-them-out-making-corbyn-prime-minister/
Remain vs the Deal (if it's been approved) or
Remain vs No Deal (if it's been rejected)
with, to be fair, some clear reassurance that even No Deal won't mean total paralysis, and we'll aim to settle for WTO status and normal 3rd party trading.
I think the EU would be willing to wait for such a decision, as they'd see a fair chance of Remain, which they would still, eye-rolling and all, prefer.
On SquareRoot's point, every democratic vote in Britain is accompanied by a legion of lies and half-truths. The electorate mostly work their way through them.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
But you're right in a sense, it is an unfair comparison. Corbyn would probably be quite a bit worse.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
However if Leave with No Deal wins fine, it will likely be economically devastating and many Leave voters could lose their jobs and the UK could break up but fair enough, they cannot say they were not warned.
They would have voted to Leave on the No Deal terms given not on terms of the 'easiest Deal in history' with the EU or staying in the single market all of which were claimed as options by some Leavers in EUref1
It was all about immigration.
'I'm afraid you come across as very condescending Dr because you simply can't understand an inner-city setting.'
If that's not a gamble with the whole country I have no idea what is. Of course she's one of the media vox pops that'll be completely unaffected by no deal.
We can, of course, ask for different (higher or lower) standards for the U.K. market but our exporters would need to then decide whether it is worth manufacturing to twi sets of standards. For some it will be for others not.
In practice those areas would be very limited. I would expect that, over time, we will have better standards in financial services (some tougher, some looser) but that the EU is u likely to withdraw equivalence (in the way it treats US regulation as equivalent). I’d also like to see higher standards in animal welfare where we have always been on the stricter end.
But that’s just life. It’s not “vassalage”
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
I think they are emphasising this is a truly awful deal in their view.
The fundamental issue is the breakdown in trust. If we trusted the EU we could sign up to the backstop. But we don’t because of the idiocy they have demonstrated over the last 2 years
And good deal or not the principal of that is sound. Brexit is more important than fearing a Corbyn government.
I don't see a path to an outcome the DUP could possibly like.
That remark is simply wrong.
1. The voters told us to leave
2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order
3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over
I'm off as well. Have a good weekend.
Ironically if she did and Northern Ireland left the UK GB might be able to get the Canada style FTA it has always wanted as Barnier has always offered that for GB but not Northern Ireland
Can you ask your drunken first-year programmers to get some help, as whilst you're patently artificial, there's precious little intelligence in your implementation.
No deal instead? Maybe it wont be as bad as People say i guess but what a gamble. GE is even more a distraction. There's no time to negotiate significantly and no incentive for the EU to do so.
(Or David Coulthard, or Jackie Stewart ... )
Plus ironically the harder Brexit gets and the more it looks like No Deal the greater the economic damage not only to the UK with its largest market, the EU but also potentially to an independent Scotland with its largest market, England
A shame. She, and Coulthard (and McNish before he departed) were excellent contributors to F1 coverage.
https://www.politico.eu/article/real-brexit-bill-northern-ireland-tories-civil-war/
They need a selling point and really need to get a grip on how it is sold