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Fecund.

JosiasJessop said:

Fecund.

Is this a sign congratulations to Mr and Mrs Jessop are in order?

I wonder whether the reluctance of the PM’s staunchest critics in the parliamentary party to send confidence vote letters to Graham Brady has been because they detected a change in the public mood.

For my money it's more likely to be a mixture of cowardice, incompetence and illiteracy. After all, we were told they were at, or nearly at the threshold before the mood change. Now we find that far from having 48 in, we don't even have the 23 who have publicly claimed to have written one. That's genuinely embarrassing for the ERG.

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.

* also applies to referendum votes

True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.

I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages.
It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.

I agree. If you accept Brexit offers not a single improvement* over the status quo, weakens the UK diplomatically and damages us economically, the draft Withdrawal Agreement is not a bad deal from the UK's PoV. It avoids immediate chaos and apart from some possible stuff during the transition period, it doesn't commit us to adopt anything we haven't already agreed. It's not an agreement for the future, so we may still end up in the Vassal State, but the deal defers that.

* Some people might see governments controlling where go as an improvement.

The French and the Spanish are doing their best to get the deal through Parliament as well by squealing about its provisions.

Getting into an argument with your own party's fundamentalists does often seem to do well for a party leader.

I think that, in reading and commenting on the document, Pulpstar has put himself (assumption)in line for Poster of the Year!

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.

* also applies to referendum votes

True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.

I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages.
It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.

I agree. If you accept Brexit offers not a single improvement* over the status quo, weakens the UK diplomatically and damages us economically, the draft Withdrawal Agreement is not a bad deal from the UK's PoV. It avoids immediate chaos and apart from some possible stuff during the transition period, it doesn't commit us to adopt anything we haven't already agreed. It's not an agreement for the future, so we may still end up in the Vassal State, but the deal defers that.

* Some people might see governments controlling where go as an improvement.

It is merde and for sure if you could understand/read all the clauses then it will be total capitulation and we are stuck as lackeys to the EU for the forseeable future. 600 pages of toilet paper.

ydoethur said:

I wonder whether the reluctance of the PM’s staunchest critics in the parliamentary party to send confidence vote letters to Graham Brady has been because they detected a change in the public mood.

For my money it's more likely to be a mixture of cowardice, incompetence and illiteracy. After all, we were told they were at, or nearly at the threshold before the mood change. Now we find that far from having 48 in, we don't even have the 23 who have publicly claimed to have written one. That's genuinely embarrassing for the ERG.

How would they know the public mood, you think they would come out of their subsidised bars and restaurants and actually speak to some plebs.

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.

* also applies to referendum votes

True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.

I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages.
It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.

I agree. If you accept Brexit offers not a single improvement* over the status quo, weakens the UK diplomatically and damages us economically, the draft Withdrawal Agreement is not a bad deal from the UK's PoV. It avoids immediate chaos and apart from some possible stuff during the transition period, it doesn't commit us to adopt anything we haven't already agreed. It's not an agreement for the future, so we may still end up in the Vassal State, but the deal defers that.

* Some people might see governments controlling where go as an improvement.

The French and the Spanish are doing their best to get the deal through Parliament as well by squealing about its provisions.

Most of the squealing is happening here - and there’ll be more when the French and the Spanish get what they want!

+1

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.

* also applies to referendum votes

True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.

I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages.
It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.

I agree. If you accept Brexit offers not a single improvement* over the status quo, weakens the UK diplomatically and damages us economically, the draft Withdrawal Agreement is not a bad deal from the UK's PoV. It avoids immediate chaos and apart from some possible stuff during the transition period, it doesn't commit us to adopt anything we haven't already agreed. It's not an agreement for the future, so we may still end up in the Vassal State, but the deal defers that.

* Some people might see governments controlling where go as an improvement.

It’s a can kicking exercise that gets us over the line. Once we formally leave the EU the referendum result is delivered. That changes everything from the UK government’s perspective. It will make it much easier to negotiate and to come to sensible compromises. So, farewell freedom of movement, hello movement that is free!

DecrepitJohnL said:

OldKingCole said:

I think that, in reading and commenting on the document, Pulpstar has put himself (assumption)in line for Poster of the Year!

Rubbish. It's taken weeks for Pulpstar to plough through it. There were some on pb who devoured all 600 pages in half an hour and posted that it was like Magna Carta written by Shakespeare.

It wasn't actually that long. If it had been properly laid out and close typed it would have been maybe 200 pages. And about 40% of its clauses were relatively uncontroversial things like definitions of key words. So it took me two hours.

I think the real problem with the initial response was that people didn't bother to read it and just reported their expectations of it - which didn't ultimately match the reality.

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder whether the reluctance of the PM’s staunchest critics in the parliamentary party to send confidence vote letters to Graham Brady has been because they detected a change in the public mood.

For my money it's more likely to be a mixture of cowardice, incompetence and illiteracy. After all, we were told they were at, or nearly at the threshold before the mood change. Now we find that far from having 48 in, we don't even have the 23 who have publicly claimed to have written one. That's genuinely embarrassing for the ERG.

How would they know the public mood, you think they would come out of their subsidised bars and restaurants and actually speak to some plebs.

Surely you mean 'turnips,' Malcolm?

LOL

SouthamObserver said:

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.

* also applies to referendum votes

True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.

I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages.
It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.

I agree. If you accept Brexit offers not a single improvement* over the status quo, weakens the UK diplomatically and damages us economically, the draft Withdrawal Agreement is not a bad deal from the UK's PoV. It avoids immediate chaos and apart from some possible stuff during the transition period, it doesn't commit us to adopt anything we haven't already agreed. It's not an agreement for the future, so we may still end up in the Vassal State, but the deal defers that.

* Some people might see governments controlling where go as an improvement.

It’s a can kicking exercise that gets us over the line. Once we formally leave the EU the referendum result is delivered. That changes everything from the UK government’s perspective. It will make it much easier to negotiate and to come to sensible compromises. So, farewell freedom of movement, hello movement that is free!

And hello being made accountable for that at the next GE.

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

My forecast : at least 50 opposition MPs will vote for the deal, and another 100 will abstain.

It will end up passing fairly easily.

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

My forecast : at least 50 opposition MPs will vote for the deal, and another 100 will abstain.

It will end up passing fairly easily.

If Labour end up splitting as badly as that, it really would be a disaster for them. That would be a bigger split than we'll see among the Tories.

I say again, Corbyn should whip abstention.

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

So will the capitulation momentum continue and the ERG-o-Dims fall in behind the deal? My gut feel is yes enough of them will.

Not from possession of any moral fibre or damascene analysis but just because shorn of their leader, who is now a laughing stock, they will be more biddable.

The political capital that the ERG had has been spent, and public support for the sort of extreme Brexit these people have been advocating is ebbing away. People can see the difficulties and risks that have been involved with getting even as far as the transitional arrangement, and there isn't any appetite for pushing further right now.

Indeed, since the transitional arrangement preserves most of the benefits of membership that matter to ordinary people, yet resolves none of Brexit's difficulties and contradictions, the transitional period is very likely to be extended, leaving open the option of rejoining to a future government - which would probably be easier than pressing ahead with cutting all the institutional ties.

So on reflection it is probably remainers who (if the People's Vote falls) should be having a good hard think about whether they really want to be opposing the deal. You can feel the tide starting to turn in May's favour already.

I thought it was a great deal for remainers as soon as the details started coming out. Take No Deal off the table and the argument becomes about exactly what our relationship with an EU with is.

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

My forecast : at least 50 opposition MPs will vote for the deal, and another 100 will abstain.

It will end up passing fairly easily.

If Labour end up splitting as badly as that, it really would be a disaster for them. That would be a bigger split than we'll see among the Tories.

I say again, Corbyn should whip abstention.

Officially abstaining on such a massive issue for the country would look terrible. A free vote would have better optics IMO.

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

My forecast : at least 50 opposition MPs will vote for the deal, and another 100 will abstain.

It will end up passing fairly easily.

If Labour end up splitting as badly as that, it really would be a disaster for them. That would be a bigger split than we'll see among the Tories.

I say again, Corbyn should whip abstention.

It's the smart move. He'll get the Brexit he wants, with the splits all being seen on the Tory side.

But he won't get a general election, unless the DUP go into revenge mode. Maybe he could offer them two billion....

Totally o/t, as someone who cycles to work I always watch the weather forecast on Sunday for the week ahead. The foreacst for Southern Hamsphire was cold but no rain for the week. So far this week on Monday it rained for 2 hours, yesterday it rained for 5 hours and this morning the rain is so hard the roads are beginning to flood. Other than economic forecasters weather forecasters are the only profession that can get their jobs completely wrong most of the time and it not affect their standing.

We know that May likes to come on to a backing track. Maybe when she meets Juncker, she could have a laugh by coming on to a bit of Orange Juice - Rip It Up (and start again).....

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

My forecast : at least 50 opposition MPs will vote for the deal, and another 100 will abstain.

It will end up passing fairly easily.

See my calculations on the previous thread.

currystar said:

Totally o/t, as someone who cycles to work I always watch the weather forecast on Sunday for the week ahead. The foreacst for Southern Hamsphire was cold but no rain for the week. So far this week on Monday it rained for 2 hours, yesterday it rained for 5 hours and this morning the rain is so hard the roads are beginning to flood. Other than economic forecasters weather forecasters are the only profession that can get their jobs completely wrong most of the time and it not affect their standing.

In the case of the great Michael Fish, it greatly enhanced his standing!

So this poll about TMay turns round in less than a week. What will the Survation poll do next week.

IanB2 said:

williamglenn said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

So will the capitulation momentum continue and the ERG-o-Dims fall in behind the deal? My gut feel is yes enough of them will.

Not from possession of any moral fibre or damascene analysis but just because shorn of their leader, who is now a laughing stock, they will be more biddable.

The political capital that the ERG had has been spent, and public support for the sort of extreme Brexit these people have been advocating is ebbing away. People can see the difficulties and risks that have been involved with getting even as far as the transitional arrangement, and there isn't any appetite for pushing further right now. Indeed most non-politicians have had enough of the whole story and just yearn for a new settled status quo.

Since the transitional arrangement preserves most of the benefits of membership that matter to ordinary people, yet resolves none of Brexit's difficulties and contradictions, the transitional period is very likely to be extended. If the Brexiters try and reopen the whole debate they will get short shrift from voters.

This leaves open the option of rejoining to a future government - which would probably be easier than pressing ahead with cutting all the institutional ties.

So on reflection it is probably remainers who (if the People's Vote falls) should be having a good hard think about whether they really want to be opposing the deal. You can feel the tide starting to turn in May's favour already.

The key to unlocking a second referendum lies with hard Brexiteers who prefer Remain to any kind of deal.

But they don't, not really.

Some genuinely do.

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

Tories can’t count.

Erg can’t count to 48
May supporters can’t count to 322

Do you always write in less than 140 characters?

Cicero said:

(snip).

Post-Brexit UK is going to need to face up to major reform, yet the Tories, as is their want, cannot deliver that. However the fact is that is that Labour are just not electable under Corbyn and 2017 was the high watermark. Unless the Labour Party gets its act together we are condemned to Tory mediocrity (at best) for the foreseeable future when what we now need is root and branch changes to our politics and economy.

I think we could well see another attempt at political realignment in the aftermath of another Conservative win, but would rather the process began asap to head off yet more years of bitter Tory misrule- they have already cost us too much (remember the AAA? *sigh*).

Whilst I agree that Labour have made themselves unelectable I am not so I agree that we need "root and branch changes" to our economy. In fact our economy, despite the chaos, is doing rather well. Record employment, low inflation, increasing real wages, reasonable if not exciting growth, a rapidly falling deficit and an improving balance of trade. We also have reduced income inequality and have used the very high level of employment to drive up the Living Wage to more acceptable levels reducing the subsidy burden on the State.

Given how the economy is progressing I think the last thing we need is politicians thinking that they know better and tearing things apart with the skill and precision that they have so recently demonstrated.

We do need to put Brexit to bed, to encourage more investment and less consumption, to make education more relevant to the jobs the market is likely to create, to encourage training, to improve the efficiency of the housing market in getting workers to where they are needed, to improve connectivity both physical and online, to rebalance public investment away from London and the SE to the north, to create a more level playing field between bricks and clicks etc etc. I am not suggesting that there is not plenty to be done but it is at the margins/supply side of our economy and politicians really need to stop causing more problems than they solve.

In particular we do not need politicians seeking to nationalise parts of industry, seeking to increase the tax burden on the mobile higher paid even further than has been done already, reducing the flexibility of our labour market that has done so much to eliminate unemployment, thinking that they know where investment in industry is likely to be most effective, indulging protectionist tendencies or anything else that Corbyn/McDonnell have dreamed up. It really wouldn't help.

You're going to have to help me with the AAA, I'm afraid.

williamglenn said:

IanB2 said:

williamglenn said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

So will the capitulation momentum continue and the ERG-o-Dims fall in behind the deal? My gut feel is yes enough of them will.

Not from possession of any moral fibre or damascene analysis but just because shorn of their leader, who is now a laughing stock, they will be more biddable.

The political capital that the ERG had has been spent, and public support for the sort of extreme Brexit these people have been advocating is ebbing away. People can see the difficulties and risks that have been involved with getting even as far as the transitional arrangement, and there isn't any appetite for pushing further right now. Indeed most non-politicians have had enough of the whole story and just yearn for a new settled status quo.

Since the transitional arrangement preserves most of the benefits of membership that matter to ordinary people, yet resolves none of Brexit's difficulties and contradictions, the transitional period is very likely to be extended. If the Brexiters try and reopen the whole debate they will get short shrift from voters.

This leaves open the option of rejoining to a future government - which would probably be easier than pressing ahead with cutting all the institutional ties.

So on reflection it is probably remainers who (if the People's Vote falls) should be having a good hard think about whether they really want to be opposing the deal. You can feel the tide starting to turn in May's favour already.

The key to unlocking a second referendum lies with hard Brexiteers who prefer Remain to any kind of deal.

But they don't, not really.

Some genuinely do.

Those'll be the UKIP MEPs with their perks, profile and privileges to lose. All of the others may say they hate an 80% EU deal but would take it over 100% EU if all other options were removed.

MarqueeMark said:

We know that May likes to come on to a backing track. Maybe when she meets Juncker, she could have a laugh by coming on to a bit of Orange Juice - Rip It Up (and start again).....

https://youtu.be/PpLfvBcxjyo

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

So will the capitulation momentum continue and the ERG-o-Dims fall in behind the deal? My gut feel is yes enough of them will.

Not from possession of any moral fibre or damascene analysis but just because shorn of their leader, who is now a laughing stock, they will be more biddable.

The political capital that the ERG had has been spent, and public support for the sort of extreme Brexit these people have been advocating is ebbing away. People can see the difficulties and risks that have been involved with getting even as far as the transitional arrangement, and there isn't any appetite for pushing further right now. Indeed most non-politicians have had enough of the whole story and just yearn for a new settled status quo.

Since the transitional arrangement preserves most of the benefits of membership that matter to ordinary people, yet resolves none of Brexit's difficulties and contradictions, the transitional period is very likely to be extended. If the Brexiters try and reopen the whole debate they will get short shrift from voters.

This leaves open the option of rejoining to a future government - which would probably be easier than pressing ahead with cutting all the institutional ties.

So on reflection it is probably remainers who (if the People's Vote falls) should be having a good hard think about whether they really want to be opposing the deal. You can feel the tide starting to turn in May's favour already.

Fools are easily deceived, UK is full of thicko's so it will likely be supported in the end. You can put any old rubbish on the Headlines of the papers and the dupes are taken in. It has to be big big letters though as most don't read the actual articles.

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

I possess, Shrodinger-like, two simultaneous and contradictory opinions.

The first, as indeed even NPXMP has noted, I can't see more than half a dozen Lab MPs voting for the deal. Given the then forces lined up against it I can't logically see a way through for it.

At the same time, I can't believe that the HoC will vote it down.

But goodness knows how each side will look come the day.

Public opinion is turning in favour of the deal, people just want it done. Thats what might turn MPs. I also think it was an error by Corbyn to be aligning himself with Nicola Sturgeon, that never plays well in England

MarqueeMark said:

SquareRoot said:

So this poll about TMay turns round in less than a week. What will the Survation poll do next week.

Her critics will still say "if only she had shown a small fraction of that tenacity when negotiating with the EU...."

But she has. If she lands this deal against the odds and given all the handicaps and handcuffs imposed on her from her own side, she'll be untouchable. At least until Tories start thinking about a looming election (and even then...).

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

My forecast : at least 50 opposition MPs will vote for the deal, and another 100 will abstain.

It will end up passing fairly easily.

I hope you're right. My forecast is that it will fail, just, the first time around but with some entirely decorative tweaking it will scrape through on the second occasion as the alternatives become more stark.

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

UK is full of thicko's

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. When criticising others for being thickos, do not add the rogue apostrophe!

What a faux pas, three of the belt for that one.
PS it looks nicer with the rogue apostrophe, style over substance every time
PPS too early to be worrying about grammar pedantry anyway

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mrs May’s greatest ally has always been the alternatives to her. The ERG has one again proved that point. Funnily enough, with her queue jumping comments she actually made me remember why I find her world view so toxic, damaging and fundamentally dishonest. But it’s not people like me she needs to convince.

Not sure about that. I still think that this deal is going to need the support of a fair number of moderate Labour MPs to pass, ideally voting for but at the least abstaining. And at the moment I am wondering who these moderates might be. Caroline Flint has been mentioned a few times but May needs 30-40 who are willing to be accused of maintaining a Tory government in office. I think that remains a very big ask.

This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?

I possess, Shrodinger-like, two simultaneous and contradictory opinions.

The first, as indeed even NPXMP has noted, I can't see more than half a dozen Lab MPs voting for the deal. Given the then forces lined up against it I can't logically see a way through for it.

At the same time, I can't believe that the HoC will vote it down.

But goodness knows how each side will look come the day.

The only real obstacle May faces is that her two sets of opponents haven't had their preferred options removed.

For remainers, they cling to the hope that losing the deal leads to a second vote and remaining. So she needs to allow a proper debate and vote on the People's Vote amendment, and see it fall.

For the hard leavers, they cling to the hope that if they can defeat the deal and keep the political chaos going for a few more weeks, we will arrive at no deal. There are a few dramatic political moves May could make to close off the no deal option - but at the moment she can let the public mood do the pushing for her. Those MPs who went back to their constituencies last weekend got the message loud and clear.

It's like AV, and she just needs to get those second preferences counted.

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

UK is full of thicko's

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. When criticising others for being thickos, do not add the rogue apostrophe!

What a faux pas, three of the belt for that one.
PS it looks nicer with the rogue apostrophe, style over substance every time
PPS too early to be worrying about grammar pedantry anyway

It is never too early to worry about grammar pedantry!

Marking calls. Have a good morning.

The UK has fallen from being the second largest economy in the world in the early 1960s to being fifth on the eve of the Brexit vote. It is now 7th after France and India over took us and we are barely holding our own in the top ten. Part of that problem is the structure of the economy. here is a left wing critique in today's Graun...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/britain-boardroooms-brexit-westminster-europe

The "absentee landlordism" of investment funds has, in my view quite a bit to do with why large UK business is either poorly run or foreign owned.

AAA? Remember in 2010 how it was going to be so critical to keep our AAA credit rating on a par with Germany. It is now AA with a negative outlook and only a notch above Estonia.

This is a problem irrespective of Brexit. Germany is still AAA.

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

UK is full of thicko's

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. When criticising others for being thickos, do not add the rogue apostrophe!

What a faux pas, three of the belt for that one.
PS it looks nicer with the rogue apostrophe, style over substance every time
PPS too early to be worrying about grammar pedantry anyway

I thought you were more of a rouge apostrophe type yourself, Malc?

While a swing of that size in one week is clearly a very real phenomenon I think we need to calm down slightly. While we know what voters are saying we don't yet know what they mean. It may simply be they don't want to add a prime ministerial resignation to the chaos at this precise moment. It may be no deeper than that. We need more data. And what data we did get at the weekend, Opinion and Com Res, had modest deterioration.

Cicero said:

The UK has fallen from being the second largest economy in the world in the early 1960s to being fifth on the eve of the Brexit vote. It is now 7th after France and India over took us and we are barely holding our own in the top ten. Part of that problem is the structure of the economy. here is a left wing critique in today's Graun...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/britain-boardroooms-brexit-westminster-europe

The "absentee landlordism" of investment funds has, in my view quite a bit to do with why large UK business is either poorly run or foreign owned.

AAA? Remember in 2010 how it was going to be so critical to keep our AAA credit rating on a par with Germany. It is now AA with a negative outlook and only a notch above Estonia.

This is a problem irrespective of Brexit. Germany is still AAA.

Not to dispute your valid points, but out of interest, if the £ appreciated by, say, 15% what would it do to our place in the rankings?

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdotally I’m coming across a lot of people with an instinctive sympathy for Theresa May, the way that tv viewers feel for penguins in the Antarctic winter.

The ERG has kindly built a ladder to allow the trapped bird to escape the ravine....

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

Jonathan said:

Cicero said:

The UK has fallen from being the second largest economy in the world in the early 1960s to being fifth on the eve of the Brexit vote. It is now 7th after France and India over took us and we are barely holding our own in the top ten. Part of that problem is the structure of the economy. here is a left wing critique in today's Graun...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/britain-boardroooms-brexit-westminster-europe

The "absentee landlordism" of investment funds has, in my view quite a bit to do with why large UK business is either poorly run or foreign owned.

AAA? Remember in 2010 how it was going to be so critical to keep our AAA credit rating on a par with Germany. It is now AA with a negative outlook and only a notch above Estonia.

This is a problem irrespective of Brexit. Germany is still AAA.

AAA, how quaint. The Tories haven’t quite delivered on their promise. The curious point is they have completely gotten away with it.

Interesting we chose the same word. Credit rating agencies exist to make the ERG look good.

That political debate feels such a long time ago, made more distant by the mismatch of Tory rhetoric and the chaos they actually delivered.

You mean reducing the deficit they inherited by 80% to date? That chaos?

Cicero said:

The UK has fallen from being the second largest economy in the world in the early 1960s to being fifth on the eve of the Brexit vote. It is now 7th after France and India over took us and we are barely holding our own in the top ten. Part of that problem is the structure of the economy. here is a left wing critique in today's Graun...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/britain-boardroooms-brexit-westminster-europe

The "absentee landlordism" of investment funds has, in my view quite a bit to do with why large UK business is either poorly run or foreign owned.

AAA? Remember in 2010 how it was going to be so critical to keep our AAA credit rating on a par with Germany. It is now AA with a negative outlook and only a notch above Estonia.

This is a problem irrespective of Brexit. Germany is still AAA.

First whether we are 5th or 7th depends entirely on which figures you look at.

Second, of course in the 1960s we still had much of the Empire, much of Africa was still under British rule as was Hong Kong and parts of the Middle East and given India has well over 10 times pur population it was always going to overtake us. Indeed India and China were the largest economies until the 17th century. What matters more is GDP per capita

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdotally I’m coming across a lot of people with an instinctive sympathy for Theresa May, the way that tv viewers feel for penguins in the Antarctic winter.

It's what happens when a defenestration isn't done swiftly and properly. By achieving the double whammy of not having the numbers and not having a plan that's plausible outside their echo chamber of extreme right wingers. Similar happened with Gordon Brown among Labour voters at least. While most knew he'd struggle to win the 2010 election and might have accepted a clean break if David Miliband had gone for it and shown he knew how to change the party's fortunes, the sniping and botched efforts of Purnell engendered sympathy for Brown, as did some of the vicious press coverage - which I think even his greatest Tory detractors would admit went several steps too far and was an unpleasant early example of the game playing and dreadful rhetoric that has since had more far reaching consequences.

IanB2 said:

Recidivist said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

So will the capitulation momentum continue and the ERG-o-Dims fall in behind the deal? My gut feel is yes enough of them will.

Not from possession of any moral fibre or damascene analysis but just because shorn of their leader, who is now a laughing stock, they will be more biddable.

The political capital that the ERG had has been spent, and public support for the sort of extreme Brexit these people have been advocating is ebbing away. People can see the difficulties and risks that have been involved with getting even as far as the transitional arrangement, and there isn't any appetite for pushing further right now.

Indeed, since the transitional arrangement preserves most of the benefits of membership that matter to ordinary people, yet resolves none of Brexit's difficulties and contradictions, the transitional period is very likely to be extended, leaving open the option of rejoining to a future government - which would probably be easier than pressing ahead with cutting all the institutional ties.

So on reflection it is probably remainers who (if the People's Vote falls) should be having a good hard think about whether they really want to be opposing the deal. You can feel the tide starting to turn in May's favour already.

I thought it was a great deal for remainers as soon as the details started coming out. Take No Deal off the table and the argument becomes about exactly what our relationship with an EU with is.

Isn't it the other way around? Take People's Vote/Remain off the table, and backing the deal is a no brainer. (Edit/ unless you are prepared to gamble with the outcome of no deal, of course)

It is interesting that exactly the same calculation - with different results - is being made on each of the extremes.

The ERG type extremists are calculating the odds of the failure of this deal leading to a Second Referendum.

The People's Vote extremists are calculating the odds of the failure of this deal leading to a No Deal.

Both hope they can manipulate the outcome of this deal failing to their advantage but either side is at all certain. In both cases this deal is perhaps starting to be viewed as being the second best (and safest) option rather than losing everything.

F1: a little bird told me that rain is a credible possibility for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Of course, odds are against but we did nearly have a wet practice session a few years ago, and Singapore proved usually dry races can sometimes get soggy.

May be worth throwing down 10p or so each way on drivers from Sauber, Toro Rosso, Williams, McLaren etc to 'win'. Odds range from Leclerc's 101 to Sirotkin's 501 (131 and 651 respectively with boost).

BBC forecast reckons it'll be dry (albeit with thundery showers a few days later) but the forecasting this year has been unusually errant. Not sure why.

AlastairMeeks said:

Anecdotally I’m coming across a lot of people with an instinctive sympathy for Theresa May, the way that tv viewers feel for penguins in the Antarctic winter.

As have I. The image of elderly (or quasi elderly), men in glasses actively abusing and (in impression) bullying a woman is not a good TV look.

currystar said:

Totally o/t, as someone who cycles to work I always watch the weather forecast on Sunday for the week ahead. The foreacst for Southern Hamsphire was cold but no rain for the week. So far this week on Monday it rained for 2 hours, yesterday it rained for 5 hours and this morning the rain is so hard the roads are beginning to flood. Other than economic forecasters weather forecasters are the only profession that can get their jobs completely wrong most of the time and it not affect their standing.

You must have been looking at a different forecast to me, because I could have told you there would be rain about on Sunday.

Part of the problem is that forecasters now rely too much on the raw model output. For example, it's been a feature of the models for ever that they do not persist showers inland as far as observed in this sort of setup. The forecaster should have made this uncertainty clear. Similarly with relatively small positional errors for fronts having larger impacts on people's experience of the weather. I suppose they only have a short period to provide a forecast for the whole country though.

Even with those caveats the skill of the weather forecast in the large scale picture is phenomenal. Of course, it's the small-scale detail that you experience.

DavidL said:

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

Jonathan said:

Cicero said:

The UK has fallen from being the second largest economy in the world in the early 1960s to being fifth on the eve of the Brexit vote. It is now 7th after France and India over took us and we are barely holding our own in the top ten. Part of that problem is the structure of the economy. here is a left wing critique in today's Graun...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/britain-boardroooms-brexit-westminster-europe

The "absentee landlordism" of investment funds has, in my view quite a bit to do with why large UK business is either poorly run or foreign owned.

AAA? Remember in 2010 how it was going to be so critical to keep our AAA credit rating on a par with Germany. It is now AA with a negative outlook and only a notch above Estonia.

This is a problem irrespective of Brexit. Germany is still AAA.

AAA, how quaint. The Tories haven’t quite delivered on their promise. The curious point is they have completely gotten away with it.

Interesting we chose the same word. Credit rating agencies exist to make the ERG look good.

That political debate feels such a long time ago, made more distant by the mismatch of Tory rhetoric and the chaos they actually delivered.

You mean reducing the deficit they inherited by 80% to date? That chaos?

Stop stating facts, words like chaos to describe an economy where there is record employment, rising wages and a massively reduced deficit are much more appropriate. We need 5 years of Corbyn to bring some order to the economy. lets get back to high unemployment, a massive deficit and big cuts in wages. That will be much better.