Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses

1356

Comments

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    They're bluffing.
    The EU overplayed their hand on the backstop, and they know it, and they know we know it.

    If we didn't have a PM who was so useless at anything other than capitulation we'd be able to pull them back from the precipice.

    The UK government should pass some emergency legislation making backstops of any kind illegal. Focus a few minds.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Amongst the mockery it seems they're planning on going for Mickey Fab's post vote ambush plan.
    Don't tell them Pike.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Sean_F said:

    It's unreasonable to argue that the GFA must override the constitutional wish of a majority of British voters to leave the European Union, particularly as the GFA does not bind any part of the UK to remain in the European Union.
    The process that led to the GFA included a binding commitment on the part of the British government that arrangements on the island of Ireland were a matter for the people of the island of Ireland. Northern Ireland voted Remain, and Ireland didn't ask for Brexit at all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945
    Scott_P said:
    We can quit speculating then if the Oracle of Mid Bedfordshire has pronounced.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    They just can't help themselves can they:

    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1064856688791093249

    Has Nadine put one in? :D
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited November 2018
    eek said:

    Anyone know off hand how much we spend subsidising Northern Ireland every year?
    £350m a week

    In case you think I’m joking...

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/northern-ireland-would-plunge-to-the-level-of-a-developing-nation-if-we-lost-uk-subsidies-1-8598687/amp
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    The smarter ERGers should have retracted their letters for the moment. Last thing they want to do is accidentally hit 48 with them looking such a shambles now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/abradacabla/status/1064858422196281344

    It's the same "leverage" they keep saying we have with the EU...
  • If any of the ERG lose their seats at the next election I’m counting those as Tory gains.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Don't tell them Pike.
    Be bloody funny if a handful of May loyalists put in their letters to force the issue and made her safe for a year.

    I think I'd set aside a full afternoon just to point and laugh at each member of the the ERG in turn.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,326
    I don't buy the May is incompetent. I think she's a pathological liar that prioritises her own political survival above the government, the party and the country (in that order) but she knows exactly what she's doing.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    The smarter ERGers should have retracted their letters for the moment. Last thing they want to do is accidentally hit 48 with them looking such a shambles now.

    Nah, focuses a few minds reminding people May is hovering very close to the threshold. Keeps it at the front of her mind when she goes to Juncker to prostrate herself for permission to re-open negotiations on the backstop omnishambles.
  • Mr. Ace, sounds like Honorius.

    Anyway, I must be off. Do play nicely, everyone.
  • dixiedean said:

    We can quit speculating then if the Oracle of Mid Bedfordshire has pronounced.
    The latter option will achieve both if slump in Tory poll numbers continues...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2018
    Beaten by TSE.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    The process that led to the GFA included a binding commitment on the part of the British government that arrangements on the island of Ireland were a matter for the people of the island of Ireland. Northern Ireland voted Remain, and Ireland didn't ask for Brexit at all.
    The Courts have rejected any attempt to claim that Brexit violates the GFA.

    An unspoken assumption that the UK would remain within the EU is not worth the paper it's written on.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't buy the May is incompetent. I think she's a pathological liar that prioritises her own political survival above the government, the party and the country (in that order) but she knows exactly what she's doing.

    Can't it be both?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited November 2018
    Anorak said:

    Be bloody funny if a handful of May loyalists put in their letters to force the issue and made her safe for a year.

    Is there such a thing as a "May Loyalist" ?

    The fact the ERG are struggling to get to 48 letters should be in no way seen as the Tory Party having any love or loyalty to Theresa May....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Xenon said:

    It's impossible to leave the EU?

    FFS it was easier for countries to get out of the Soviet Union. The comparisons get ever more apt every day don't they?
    No, May has a deal under which we leave the EU. It's her own government (including two former Brexit ministers) which is the first barrier. Then there's the DUP and parliament, it's not the EU that are the problem.
    Plus we'd be better off staying anyway.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    GIN1138 said:

    Is there such a thing as a "May Loyalist" ?
    Philip May.
  • Off topic

    All going well here in Wales with labour's new 'Transport for Wales' franchise

    TFW have apologised after more than a quarter of it's trains were left needing repairs mainly because of 'leaves on the track'. 36 trains out of 127 are under repair. Repair work was also being done on trains damaged during storm Callum. TFW and Network Rail have issued a joint apology.

    So how does nationalisation help. Mind you in Wales nationalisation is off the table as Welsh labour has signed a 15 year franchise
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,715
    Xenon said:

    The EU are playing hardball because we wanted a free trade agreement.

    May should have realised that wasn't possible ages ago instead of capitulating on everything else.

    It is absolutely her fault that they continued down this path long after it was shown that we couldn't get any acceptable deal from it.
    I thought the whole point of leaving was to sign, er, free trade agreements.

    But now you don't want one with the EU.

    Or were you cutting and pasting from the Daily Mash? Difficult to tell with you hardcore leavers these days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited November 2018

    No -- the Prime Minister would lose a no confidence vote because any likely successor would have broadly the same policies, and few MPs will want her anywhere near an election campaign.

    There has been a paradox. Two paradoxes. The smaller is that Theresa May has got better at campaigning which ought to strengthen her position but probably won't. The crucial one is the ERG is revealed to be a busted flush. This means backbenchers can vote against May knowing that the ERG can't get 48 letters written so does not have a prayer of getting a Brexiteer into the final two.

    The ERG's blustering has made it safe to depose Theresa May!

    No - The PM absolutely will win a no confidence vote as no alternative leader has a better plan for a Deal and most Tory MPs want a Deal and there will not be a general election anyway as most Tory MPs will not vote for one and it requires 2/3 of MPs and in any case May outpolls any alternative Tory leader. More likely is May will call EUref2 if she still cannot get her Deal through after the markets crash when it is voted down on a Deal v No Deal v Remain basis and that requires a simple Commons majority which there is for EUref2 in the Commons over No Deal.

    Many Brexiteers have not signed letters that does not mean they would not back a Brexiteer in a leadership vote but there will not be one anyway as May will survive any no confidence vote
  • GIN1138 said:

    Is there such a thing as a "May Loyalist" ?

    The fact the ERG are struggling to get to 28 letters should be in no way seen as the Tory Party having any love or loyalty to Theresa May....
    I’m a fully fledged May loyalist.

    Yes I’m amazed as the rest of you but No Deal is a disaster and this deal respects the main referendum commitment to end free movement and doesn’t crash the economy.

    Plus the opponents to this deal are people who I so detest so she must be doing something right.

    I mean look at how stupid David Davis was shown to be yesterday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Pulpstar said:

    Amongst the mockery it seems they're planning on going for Mickey Fab's post vote ambush.
    Which is smart. Because then that isn't an ERG move, it is a much wider Party move.

    And so is much more dangerous for May.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,715

    The backstop is the single greatest error of May's career of terrible errors.

    The backstop might be the single greatest foreign policy fuck up in UK politics since Suez?

    The backstop needs to die, and that means May's dodgy deal needs to die, and that means May's career needs to die. There must be no forgiveness for a fuckup of this magnitude.

    You have become one of the funniest (as in laughing with you) posters on PB of late.

    This comment, however, is a laugh at one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    I’m a fully fledged May loyalist.

    Yes I’m amazed as the rest of you but No Deal is a disaster and this deal respects the main referendum commitment to end free movement and doesn’t crash the economy.

    Plus the opponents to this deal are people who I so detest so she must be doing something right.

    I mean look at how stupid David Davis was shown to be yesterday.
    My view is that she and her deal are preferable to any plausible alternative.
  • I see the EU are again coming up with bonkers laws for the interwebs.

    https://torrentfreak.com/upload-filters-article-13-the-latest-eu-proposals-181120/
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Most of the parliamentary party is a May loyalist... for the immediate future.

    They will remain loyal until the precise moment of the meaningful vote. Then ALL HELL will break loose, whatever happens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Sean_F said:

    The Courts have rejected any attempt to claim that Brexit violates the GFA.

    An unspoken assumption that the UK would remain within the EU is not worth the paper it's written on.
    Forget about the GFA and read the Downing Street Declaration.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Which is smart. Because then that isn't an ERG move, it is a much wider Party move.

    And so is much more dangerous for May.
    Less smart, more obvious. It's only smart by comparison to Mogg's profoundly stupid actions last week.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,715

    And it was a British Lawyer who wrote the 2 years bit into the treaty....

    Edit: If we do not put up barriers then our own industry is exposed to worldwide competition which will undercut many of them.
    Don't forget that Patrick Minford sees the destruction of the UK's domestic manufacturing as a positive outcome of Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    They're bluffing.
    No they are not, No Deal screws us more than them. We are just 16% of their exports, they are 44% of ours
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Which is smart.

    LMAO

    The ERG completely fucked up their coup.

    Now completely backed into a corner, Brexiteer proclaims their latest spin attempt "smart"...
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    I’m a fully fledged May loyalist.

    Yes I’m amazed as the rest of you but No Deal is a disaster and this deal respects the main referendum commitment to end free movement and doesn’t crash the economy.

    Plus the opponents to this deal are people who I so detest so she must be doing something right.

    I mean look at how stupid David Davis was shown to be yesterday.
    +1
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,326
    GIN1138 said:



    Is there such a thing as a "May Loyalist" ?

    Big G, Carlotta and HYFD or whatever the fuck they're called would die on a cross for her.
  • I’m a fully fledged May loyalist.

    Yes I’m amazed as the rest of you but No Deal is a disaster and this deal respects the main referendum commitment to end free movement and doesn’t crash the economy.

    Plus the opponents to this deal are people who I so detest so she must be doing something right.

    I mean look at how stupid David Davis was shown to be yesterday.
    And me
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Which is smart. Because then that isn't an ERG move, it is a much wider Party move.

    And so is much more dangerous for May.
    May would still win it anyway as most Tory MPs want a Deal and there is no alternative to this one
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Scott_P said:

    LMAO

    The ERG completely fucked up their coup.

    Now completely backed into a corner, Brexiteer proclaims their latest spin attempt "smart"...
    The Mickey Fab plan is smart. The ERG have been forced to accept a smarter plan by smarter people. It does mean that they are now at least listening to people who know what they're doing. It also makes them much more dangerous.

    The resistance now has a leader that knows what he's doing, and his name is FABRICANT.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    And me
    Me too, as Dura points put.

    If rebels are relying on Michael Fabricant, he makes even Baldrick's 'cunning plans' look clever
  • Scott_P said:
    he hasn't got the frabricant memo i see
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    Forget about the GFA and read the Downing Street Declaration.
    The Downing Street Declaration is just that, a declaration. It does not constitute a treaty, or indeed, any binding obligation on the UK.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Lillico is incomprehensible. I mean, consistency is overrated in politics, but Lillico often switches ideology mid-sentence.

    He's exhausting.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    May would still win it anyway as most Tory MPs want a Deal and there is no alternative to this one
    By that point she may have massively lost a vote and looking at cap in hand back to the EU or no deal.

    At that point a new leader would be a smart move for the party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Less smart, more obvious. It's only smart by comparison to Mogg's profoundly stupid actions last week.
    Rowing in behind it is smart. Especially when you haven't spotted it's what the rest of the party are doing - and a chunk of those you thought were "supporters"!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Scott_P said:

    LMAO

    The ERG completely fucked up their coup.

    Now completely backed into a corner, Brexiteer proclaims their latest spin attempt "smart"...
    Brexiteer =/= ERG supporter
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The Mickey Fab plan is smart. The ERG have been forced to accept a smarter plan by smarter people. It does mean that they are now at least listening to people who know what they're doing. It also makes them much more dangerous.

    The resistance now has a leader that knows what he's doing, and his name is FABRICANT.

    HYUFD said:

    If rebels are relying on Michael Fabricant, he makes even Baldrick's 'cunning plans' look clever

    This juxtaposition was just too perfect...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    He's certainly lost the plot. He also thinks ten years of economic chaos, or staying and joining the Euro, would both be preferable to the WA.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Big G, Carlotta and HYFD or whatever the fuck they're called would die on a cross for her.
    Why the unnecessary language. I am entitled to my view as you are but abusive language says more about you than me.

    And by the way, I do not see TM leading my party post next spring
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,326

    The Mickey Fab plan is smart. The ERG have been forced to accept a smarter plan by smarter people. It does mean that they are now at least listening to people who know what they're doing. It also makes them much more dangerous.

    The resistance now has a leader that knows what he's doing, and his name is FABRICANT.
    Are you a FABRICAN or a FABRICAN'T?
  • Southampton students' union president resigns in WW1 mural row

    "I acted impulsively and as such fully accept how careless and hurtful my words were."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-46274283

    Stop f##king lying.....her tw@tter timeline was stuffed with similar hate.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Are Brexiteers mentally ill?

    Pretty sure that a good chunk of Mogg's bunch wouldn't accept any deal ..... short of one that involved a Trident launch on Brussels, of course.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Are Brexiteers mentally ill?

    More Remainer gaslighting. Not to mention pretty distasteful slurs on those with mental health issues.

    It's what lost 'em a referendum I guess.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Rowing in behind it is smart. Especially when you haven't spotted it's what the rest of the party are doing - and a chunk of those you thought were "supporters"!
    What the fuck are you talking about? Last Thursday it became very clear that May's deal was doomed but that at the moment the numbers don't exist to remove her. It doesn't take a brain the size of a planet to know at that point that the ERG should sit tight, not make a big song and dance of launching a failed coup to kill an already dead deal.
  • Sean_F said:

    He's certainly lost the plot. He also thinks ten years of economic chaos, or staying and joining the Euro, would both be preferable to the WA.
    Can we deport him back to New Zealand ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited November 2018
    Andrew said:

    Pretty sure that a good chunk of Mogg's bunch wouldn't accept any deal ..... short of one that involved a Trident launch on Brussels, of course.
    How about we compromise and launch a Trident mission at Paris?

    It would unite the country.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Southampton students' union president resigns in WW1 mural row

    "I acted impulsively and as such fully accept how careless and hurtful my words were."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-46274283

    Stop f##king lying.....her tw@tter timeline was stuffed with similar hate.

    I'm sure it is just coincidence that the painting was by Sir William Rothenstein.....
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    What the fuck are you talking about? Last Thursday it became very clear that May's deal was doomed but that at the moment the numbers don't exist to remove her. It doesn't take a brain the size of a planet to know at that point that the ERG should sit tight, not make a big song and dance of launching a failed coup to kill an already dead deal.
    So why did they launch a coup?
  • Ivanka Trump used a personal email account to send hundreds of messages discussing official White House business last year, officials confirm.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46271021

    Lock her up....lock her up....

    I thought she was supposed to be the smart one of the family. Given dad spent 2 years banging on about private email servers etc, how could she not be aware of the rules?
  • TGOHF said:

    More Remainer gaslighting. Not to mention pretty distasteful slurs on those with mental health issues.

    It's what lost 'em a referendum I guess.
    When SeanT published a piece on Telegraph asking if atheists were mentally ill that was fine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited November 2018

    I'm sure it is just coincidence that the painting was by Sir William Rothenstein.....
    Are you suggesting she has an irrational hatred of those trained at the Slade School of Art?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    currystar said:

    So why did they launch a coup?
    Because they're idiots
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,326
    It's hard to decide what I like more about Fabricant: the 1965 vintage Peter Noone wig or that time he called a teenage girl "a complete twat" on twitter.

    Oh yeah, the apartheid flag on the mantelpiece. That was a nice touch as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Nad must have forgotten she was writing one of her tales of motherhood and apple pie at some stage.
  • Sean_F said:

    He's certainly lost the plot. He also thinks ten years of economic chaos, or staying and joining the Euro, would both be preferable to the WA.
    I think my eyes rolled into the next time zone.

    Please sort out your fellow Leavers, for the sake of the country.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    I think my eyes rolled into the next time zone.

    Please sort out your fellow Leavers, for the sake of the country.
    When he thought Remain had won he regretted that the small margin would make it unlikely we'd join the Euro.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/746091433019453440
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/746091918648446977
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Sean_F said:

    The Downing Street Declaration is just that, a declaration. It does not constitute a treaty, or indeed, any binding obligation on the UK.
    Isn’t trade across the border one of the areas that is subject to cooperation and agreement under the North/South Ministerial Council as required by the GFA? Genuinely don’t know whether this is relevant or not. Also, is it a coincidence that the Assembly and NI Executive are suspended during this period? Is it the aim of the DUP to exploit Brexit in some way to bring about an end to the GFA? Again, would welcome comment from anyone who understands NI politics better than me.
  • The Mickey Fab plan is smart. The ERG have been forced to accept a smarter plan by smarter people. It does mean that they are now at least listening to people who know what they're doing. It also makes them much more dangerous.

    The resistance now has a leader that knows what he's doing, and his name is FABRICANT.
    Indeed. Better to have a latent threat, a fleet in being to commit only when your opponent is at their weakest, than no threat at all.

    "I believe that if the current Chequers plan were rejected, she would apply her talents to delivering a Brexit which would work in the national interest while not binding us to Brussels. And if she is not prepared to pivot and work for a no-deal Brexit, then – and only then – will I be free to write my letter to Sir Graham."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/18/michael-fabricant-mpwhy-wont-writing-letter-chairman-1922/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Are you suggesting she has an irrational hatred of those trained at the Slade School of Art?
    Just those renowned for their representations of Jewish synagogues in London....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    TGOHF said:

    By that point she may have massively lost a vote and looking at cap in hand back to the EU or no deal.

    At that point a new leader would be a smart move for the party.
    Regardless May will not budge as long as she cannot be toppled, she May even call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through to screw the ERG who are now her enemies and that would pass Parliament over No Deal
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945

    When SeanT published a piece on Telegraph asking if atheists were mentally ill that was fine.
    Do you have a link to that article? SeanT on the ontology of faith might be moderately diverting. I think St Anselm, Augustine and Aquinas will be looking down fearing for their reputations.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    When SeanT published a piece on Telegraph asking if atheists were mentally ill that was fine.
    Did he ? It wasn't.
  • Its odd how some people don't seem to understand the difference between guff spouted by a politician to influence a vote, and detailed specific explanations by business and industry as to how their businesses and industries actually work.
  • Just those renowned for their representations of Jewish synagogues in London....
    You are giving her a lot of credit for being sufficiently well versed in art history to know this.
  • When he thought Remain had won he regretted that the small margin would make it unlikely we'd join the Euro.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/746091433019453440
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/746091918648446977
    Why would the lead economist of the official Leave campaign, want us to join the Euro?
  • dixiedean said:

    Do you have a link to that article? SeanT on the ontology of faith might be moderately diverting. I think St Anselm, Augustine and Aquinas will be looking down fearing for their reputations.
    You’ll have to ask Sean, it was wiped when the Telegraph changed their blogs.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    TGOHF said:

    More Remainer gaslighting. Not to mention pretty distasteful slurs on those with mental health issues.

    It's what lost 'em a referendum I guess.
    Is 'gaslighting' your new word of the day? ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    Why would the lead economist of the official Leave campaign, want us to join the Euro?
    He's basically a strong believer in having a clear national story. Either we (and the wider British diaspora via CANZUK) should be a separate force in global geopolitics, or Britain should fully commit to European integration. What he doesn't like is muddled ambiguity.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Off topic

    All going well here in Wales with labour's new 'Transport for Wales' franchise

    TFW have apologised after more than a quarter of it's trains were left needing repairs mainly because of 'leaves on the track'. 36 trains out of 127 are under repair. Repair work was also being done on trains damaged during storm Callum. TFW and Network Rail have issued a joint apology.

    So how does nationalisation help. Mind you in Wales nationalisation is off the table as Welsh labour has signed a 15 year franchise

    TFW Rail is not nationalized, it’s operated by Keolis Amey. The difference is that it’s let as a concession on the same model as Merseyrail and the London Overground, a model which has proven very successful.

    And as to leaves on the tracks disabling trains, this is a very real problem: the leaves form a mulch on the rail which causes the train wheels to slip and then slide along the track. This causes flats to form on the wheels, which if not addressed will develop until the wheels won’t roll at all. Fixing them requires the wheels to be turned on a lathe. It’s not just Wales: it’s a nation- indeed world- wide problem. We have exactly the same problem on the NYC area commuter rail.

    The degree of the problem varies from year to year depending on the weather. It is a bigger problem in modern times than it was in the past for a number of reasons. The end of steam traction means that the railway doesn’t as aggressively cut back vegetation close to the line as it once did as the risk of lineside fires from sparks and hot ash from steam locomotives has gone away. Of course, when Network Rail tries to return to more aggressive vegetation management to prevent leaf-fall, everyone starts complaining about trees being cut down. The switch of train brakes to much more efficient disk brakes has not helped either, as the traditional brake blocks would help scrape the lead mulch off the wheels.

    So it’s a bit unfair to blame politicians and management in Wales for something that is caused by nature and is a problem world-wide.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Is 'gaslighting' your new word of the day? ;)
    If it was, you'd think he'd find out what it meant.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Its odd how some people don't seem to understand the difference between guff spouted by a politician to influence a vote, and detailed specific explanations by business and industry as to how their businesses and industries actually work.
    Maybe the difference does not matter. Only Brexit matters and it is consequence free .... apparently :D:D
  • eek said:
    announcing you're delaying the coup?

    Joaquim, fetch me my helicopter
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    rpjs said:

    TFW Rail is not nationalized, it’s operated by Keolis Amey. The difference is that it’s let as a concession on the same model as Merseyrail and the London Overground, a model which has proven very successful.

    And as to leaves on the tracks disabling trains, this is a very real problem: the leaves form a mulch on the rail which causes the train wheels to slip and then slide along the track. This causes flats to form on the wheels, which if not addressed will develop until the wheels won’t roll at all. Fixing them requires the wheels to be turned on a lathe. It’s not just Wales: it’s a nation- indeed world- wide problem. We have exactly the same problem on the NYC area commuter rail.

    The degree of the problem varies from year to year depending on the weather. It is a bigger problem in modern times than it was in the past for a number of reasons. The end of steam traction means that the railway doesn’t as aggressively cut back vegetation close to the line as it once did as the risk of lineside fires from sparks and hot ash from steam locomotives has gone away. Of course, when Network Rail tries to return to more aggressive vegetation management to prevent leaf-fall, everyone starts complaining about trees being cut down. The switch of train brakes to much more efficient disk brakes has not helped either, as the traditional brake blocks would help scrape the lead mulch off the wheels.

    So it’s a bit unfair to blame politicians and management in Wales for something that is caused by nature and is a problem world-wide.
    I'd wish politicians would spend a little more time looking at the concessionary model: after all, we have experience of it, and it might be a reasonable alternative to both the current franchise system and the full-fat renationalised BR.

    As for the problems with leaf mulch: bring back the Swedish Scrubbers ... ;)
  • Its odd how some people don't seem to understand the difference between guff spouted by a politician to influence a vote, and detailed specific explanations by business and industry as to how their businesses and industries actually work.
    Yes and Carney though not a politician was saying more of the former than the latter.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    If it was, you'd think he'd find out what it meant.
    I'm too mentally ill to undertstand.
  • HYUFD said:

    No they are not, No Deal screws us more than them. We are just 16% of their exports, they are 44% of ours
    That's moot. It isn't the EU that wants the backstop, it is the Irish. If the EU said the backstop wasn't needed, the Germans wouldn't insist upon it.

    What proportion of Irish exports rely upon us?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    announcing you're delaying the coup?

    Joaquim, fetch me my helicopter
    Coup 2 The Reckoning
  • And it was a British Lawyer who wrote the 2 years bit into the treaty....

    Edit: If we do not put up barriers then our own industry is exposed to worldwide competition which will undercut many of them.
    Fantastic! When can it start?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    tlg86 said:

    Makes a change for an organisation (if that's the right term) to not be obsessed with such nonsense.

    You actually damage your argument against them by making that point.
    Yes but you damage your counterargument by using that point too.
  • HYUFD said:



    No they are not, No Deal screws us more than them. We are just 16% of their exports, they are 44% of ours

    That really is sophistry.

    The only comparison that matters is that in absolute terms of total value we sell about half as much to the EU as they sell to us.

    It is also the case that the UK's huge and unsustainable balance of trade deficit with the world is entirely accounted for by our trade with the EU alone. So if we believe the scare stories of Project Fear and conclude that the UK would be unable to export to the EU and vice versa, the consequence would be that UK's historic balance of payments problem would be solved overnight.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,303
    HYUFD said:

    No they are not, No Deal screws us more than them. We are just 16% of their exports, they are 44% of ours
    So if I threatened to cut your foot and my leg off, then you'd be OK with that, as it would hurt me more than you? I'd wager you'd be looking at alternatives that involved no amputations if you thought I even might be serious.
  • Southampton students' union president resigns in WW1 mural row

    "I acted impulsively and as such fully accept how careless and hurtful my words were."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-46274283

    Stop f##king lying.....her tw@tter timeline was stuffed with similar hate.

    One odd thing is the Union boss did not know what the painting depicted. Perhaps the vice chancellor should get a description placed underneath it, as happens in art galleries, and any other paintings and statues knocking about the place.
This discussion has been closed.