politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How referendums can add to the democratic process
Comments
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Ah yes, another person to blame instead of looking at your own culpability.MarqueeMark said:
When will it end? "Well, I blame the person who delivers the milk to the hairdresser of the woman who prepares the schedule of Mrs May's chiropodist."
Grow a pair, man;0 -
The government enables 'No Brexit' via a second referendum which allows it to expose Corbyn's cynical positioning.rcs1000 said:shiney, GIN et al:
The EU is unlikely to offer us a better deal.
The question therefore becomes stark: does the government back No Deal, which would allow it to capture some UKIP votes, but would probably mean losing soft Leave votes to absentions, Labour or the LibDems?
Or does the government back this deal, which keeps the LibDem vote share depressed, but risks losing votes to UKIP?
With support for No Deal Brexit of 32%, and with some of that being left wing No Deal (a la Sandy Rentool), and some of it being loonies who'd back UKIP (because Muslims) irrespective, it's not clear to me that the Conservatives would be pursuing a winning strategy by going the No Deal route.
It's also clear that those who lost jobs - and yes even if it turned out to be all sunshine and roses, there would be some losers - would probably never return to the Conservatives.0 -
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through0 -
Welcome back, Mr Tyndall. I hope you are well.Richard_Tyndall said:Excellent thread header by Fisherman. The best for a long time. But of course I only say that because I agree with everything he says. If I disagreed then it would be the worst thread header I had seen in ages on here.
On the question of the moment I am reluctantly in Casino Royal's camp. Thanks to May's ineptitude and iniquity this is a pretty awful deal but I would take it any day over Remain. I would be 50:50 over this Deal compared to No Deal, mostly because of the threat of Brexit being cancelled if this deal falls.
It does all however reinforce my view that all politicians are basically dishonest shits and the sooner we have more direct democracy the better.0 -
1979, it led to the SNP assisting Mrs Thatcher to become PM, thank Allah for that referendum.OchEye said:
Scotland didn't get a Scottish Assembly in 1978 with the same rules, comment please!AndyJS said:
Well we certainly wouldn't have a Welsh Assembly with those requirements.OchEye said:Very interesting, but if I may I would put in my tuppence worth. Referendums should have a minimum percentage (say 40%) of the electorate to vote, and 60% of the actual voters to vote for change. Otherwise, we keep coming back to another referendum until one side or the other gets the result they want. Anybody who doesn't vote can't complain if the vote didn't go the way they wanted - the rules were there. I would also put in that in elections on a FPTP, if the total vote in the constituency is less than 50% of the electorate, then there should be a run off between the top 2 - should start to concentrate minds.
It also explains why Scotland qualified for international tournaments in 1982, 1986, 1990, 1992, 1996, and 1998.
Have you noticed how the Scottish football teamed stopped qualifying for major tournaments since Holyrood opened.0 -
If May's Deal is voted down (even after the others), doesn't it just then default to No Deal unless she gets A50 extension?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through
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The problem being of course that, as we have seen from this referendum, our democracy is anything but representative.matt said:As for the header, unless I’ve missed it, it avoids the key pointt which is that referendums only work on simple matters and matters where you can control the process. So the Swiss car parks, Irish abortion changes and Californian taxes are a matter of internal policy. EU membership involves complicated multifaceted trade off and relies on bringing third parties with you. It’s wholly unsuitable for a simplistic binary question. Some things are too complicated for that. There’s a very good reason for the existence of representative democracy.
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The question should be decided by what is in the national interest, not what is most likely to get the Tories a few votes from UKIP. This whole farrago has arisen because the Tories made these kinds of short term tactical considerations and allowed them, rather than the national interest, to dictate policy.rcs1000 said:shiney, GIN et al:
The EU is unlikely to offer us a better deal.
The question therefore becomes stark: does the government back No Deal, which would allow it to capture some UKIP votes, but would probably mean losing soft Leave votes to absentions, Labour or the LibDems?
Or does the government back this deal, which keeps the LibDem vote share depressed, but risks losing votes to UKIP?
With support for No Deal Brexit of 32%, and with some of that being left wing No Deal (a la Sandy Rentool), and some of it being loonies who'd back UKIP (because Muslims) irrespective, it's not clear to me that the Conservatives would be pursuing a winning strategy by going the No Deal route.
It's also clear that those who lost jobs - and yes even if it turned out to be all sunshine and roses, there would be some losers - would probably never return to the Conservatives.0 -
Well, you can't use the gross figure, because £20-something billion of that is spent in the UK. Can we spend it better? Probably, but simplistically, we're talking about what the overall level of aggregate demand will be in the UK, so you have to use net in measuring the immediate impact on the economy.TGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.
So, let's say it's £18bn that's available to cushion the blow. That's comfortably under 1% of the economy.0 -
Thanks JJ I am fine. I am generally staying away from posting on the site because I find myself wanting to say things to people that they do not deserve. Better to say nothing at all.JosiasJessop said:
Welcome back, Mr Tyndall. I hope you are well.Richard_Tyndall said:Excellent thread header by Fisherman. The best for a long time. But of course I only say that because I agree with everything he says. If I disagreed then it would be the worst thread header I had seen in ages on here.
On the question of the moment I am reluctantly in Casino Royal's camp. Thanks to May's ineptitude and iniquity this is a pretty awful deal but I would take it any day over Remain. I would be 50:50 over this Deal compared to No Deal, mostly because of the threat of Brexit being cancelled if this deal falls.
It does all however reinforce my view that all politicians are basically dishonest shits and the sooner we have more direct democracy the better.0 -
And England didn't win an Ashes series until Labour stopped polling above 35% in general elections *innocent face*.TheScreamingEagles said:
1979, it led to the SNP assisting Mrs Thatcher to become PM, thank Allah for that referendum.OchEye said:
Scotland didn't get a Scottish Assembly in 1978 with the same rules, comment please!AndyJS said:
Well we certainly wouldn't have a Welsh Assembly with those requirements.OchEye said:Very interesting, but if I may I would put in my tuppence worth. Referendums should have a minimum percentage (say 40%) of the electorate to vote, and 60% of the actual voters to vote for change. Otherwise, we keep coming back to another referendum until one side or the other gets the result they want. Anybody who doesn't vote can't complain if the vote didn't go the way they wanted - the rules were there. I would also put in that in elections on a FPTP, if the total vote in the constituency is less than 50% of the electorate, then there should be a run off between the top 2 - should start to concentrate minds.
It also explains why Scotland qualified for international tournaments in 1982, 1986, 1990, 1992, 1996, and 1998.
Have you noticed how the Scottish football teamed stopped qualifying for major tournaments since Holyrood opened.0 -
Welcome back Richard.Richard_Tyndall said:Excellent thread header by Fisherman. The best for a long time. But of course I only say that because I agree with everything he says. If I disagreed then it would be the worst thread header I had seen in ages on here.
On the question of the moment I am reluctantly in Casino Royal's camp. Thanks to May's ineptitude and iniquity this is a pretty awful deal but I would take it any day over Remain. I would be 50:50 over this Deal compared to No Deal, mostly because of the threat of Brexit being cancelled if this deal falls.
It does all however reinforce my view that all politicians are basically dishonest shits and the sooner we have more direct democracy the better.0 -
It's a shame you cannot post any of what you are smoking cos i'd love to try some of it.TGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.0 -
Welcome back Richard. If you or Casino were PM I would trust your advice. As it is I cannot support this deal. May has lied every step of the way and she's still lying now.Richard_Tyndall said:Excellent thread header by Fisherman. The best for a long time. But of course I only say that because I agree with everything he says. If I disagreed then it would be the worst thread header I had seen in ages on here.
On the question of the moment I am reluctantly in Casino Royal's camp. Thanks to May's ineptitude and iniquity this is a pretty awful deal but I would take it any day over Remain. I would be 50:50 over this Deal compared to No Deal, mostly because of the threat of Brexit being cancelled if this deal falls.
It does all however reinforce my view that all politicians are basically dishonest shits and the sooner we have more direct democracy the better.
I'm clinging to the hope that what the ERG is doing is distracting everyone from the fact that the default is still no deal and that by appearing to be after May, they are deterring the remainers from removing her themselves.0 -
I'd support that.williamglenn said:
The government enables 'No Brexit' via a second referendum which allows it to expose Corbyn's cynical positioning.rcs1000 said:shiney, GIN et al:
The EU is unlikely to offer us a better deal.
The question therefore becomes stark: does the government back No Deal, which would allow it to capture some UKIP votes, but would probably mean losing soft Leave votes to absentions, Labour or the LibDems?
Or does the government back this deal, which keeps the LibDem vote share depressed, but risks losing votes to UKIP?
With support for No Deal Brexit of 32%, and with some of that being left wing No Deal (a la Sandy Rentool), and some of it being loonies who'd back UKIP (because Muslims) irrespective, it's not clear to me that the Conservatives would be pursuing a winning strategy by going the No Deal route.
It's also clear that those who lost jobs - and yes even if it turned out to be all sunshine and roses, there would be some losers - would probably never return to the Conservatives.0 -
You do not have 39 billion. The treaty obligations are in the region of 30 billion leaving 9 billionTGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.
TM made the point on wednesday, and it has been repeated by many, the UK stands by its legal obligations. Ignore them and we become a pariah state
But since when have brexiteers understood anything about the reality of their position
And of course brexiters do not care about manufacturing cars or aerospace. Boris affirmed that when he told Airbus to FO0 -
Meh - you can snark all you want but wild horses wont drag me to the polling booth to back the Cons under this regime.felix said:
It's a shame you cannot post any of what you are smoking cos i'd love to try some of it.TGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.0 -
rcs1000 said:
shiney, GIN et al:
The EU is unlikely to offer us a better deal.
I think they might. But i also think it will be a negligible improvement.
The Hoc party politics requires one party to switch: the DUP is the simplest: ditch the backstop and the DUP buy the deal. But the EU has invested quite a lot of cred in Ireland.
Depends I guess if germany/france tell the Commission on D-30 to stop messing with their export industries. Otherwise a negligible improvement will have a negligible effect.0 -
Anyhoo I'm so glad I'm spending most of next March and April in Canada.
My threads will be focussing on the Sunlit Uplands of Brexit.0 -
I think the problem you would have there would be the lack of ability to compel the Government to take action. It is, as I understand it, simply impossible to legislate against a No Deal because that is the default if the Government does nothing before March 29th.... I think.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through0 -
Please ignore that post.rcs1000 said:
Well, you can't use the gross figure, because £20-something billion of that is spent in the UK. Can we spend it better? Probably, but simplistically, we're talking about what the overall level of aggregate demand will be in the UK, so you have to use net in measuring the immediate impact on the economy.TGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.
So, let's say it's £18bn that's available to cushion the blow. That's comfortably under 1% of the economy.0 -
Who would vote for an MP who backed this deal ?
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/the-top-40-horrors-lurking-in-the-small-print-of-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/
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What are you getting for £39Bn - sell it to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not have 39 billion. The treaty obligations are in the region of 30 billion leaving 9 billionTGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.
TM made the point on wednesday, and it has been repeated by many, the UK stands by its legal obligations. Ignore them and we become a pariah state
But since when have brexiteers understood anything about the reality of their position
And of course brexiters do not care about manufacturing cars or aerospace. Boris affirmed that when he told Airbus to FO0 -
Thanks Robert.rcs1000 said:
Welcome back Richard.Richard_Tyndall said:Excellent thread header by Fisherman. The best for a long time. But of course I only say that because I agree with everything he says. If I disagreed then it would be the worst thread header I had seen in ages on here.
On the question of the moment I am reluctantly in Casino Royal's camp. Thanks to May's ineptitude and iniquity this is a pretty awful deal but I would take it any day over Remain. I would be 50:50 over this Deal compared to No Deal, mostly because of the threat of Brexit being cancelled if this deal falls.
It does all however reinforce my view that all politicians are basically dishonest shits and the sooner we have more direct democracy the better.0 -
New ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Sunday Express: Half of Britain’s voters want Theresa May to stay on as PM and see Brexit through, including nearly one in three Labour voters
As Theresa May clings on, half (47%) of adults say she should remain in post at least until 29th March 2019, when Britain officially leaves the EU.
Despite Jacob Rees-Mogg’s efforts, only three in ten (31%) think May should resign, and only 17% think Rees-Mogg should replace her.
Voters are split evenly on whether Theresa May should continue as Prime Minister for the foreseeable future (38% agree vs. 41% disagree). But this rises to seven in ten (72%) among Tory voters.
Only a quarter (26%) say May should trigger a General Election immediately.
However, Labour have increased their lead over the Conservatives (40% vs. 36%) – while Labour remain unchanged since the last ComRes/VI poll for the Daily Express (28th September), a tumultuous week for the Government is reflected in the polls with a 3 percentage point decrease for the Conservatives (Labour are unchanged).
Just over half (53%) of adults do not think there should be a second referendum but that the 2016 referendum result should be respected, while 47% think there should be a second referendum of some kind.
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Not if no deal is voted downrottenborough said:
If May's Deal is voted down (even after the others), doesn't it just then default to No Deal unless she gets A50 extension?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through0 -
0
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ComRes
Fears over possible chaos post-Brexit have been overblown
Agree 42%
Disagree 35%
Don’t know 23%
Two in five (42%) agree that fears over possible chaos post-Brexit have been overblown.
Two thirds (65%) of Conservative voters agree, compared with one quarter (26%) of Labour voters.
Over half (54%) of 65+ year olds agree, compared with fewer than three in ten (28%) 18-24 year olds.0 -
Men's team, Meh! Women's? Probably got more balls...TheScreamingEagles said:
1979, it led to the SNP assisting Mrs Thatcher to become PM, thank Allah for that referendum.OchEye said:
Scotland didn't get a Scottish Assembly in 1978 with the same rules, comment please!AndyJS said:
Well we certainly wouldn't have a Welsh Assembly with those requirements.OchEye said:Very interesting, but if I may I would put in my tuppence worth. Referendums should have a minimum percentage (say 40%) of the electorate to vote, and 60% of the actual voters to vote for change. Otherwise, we keep coming back to another referendum until one side or the other gets the result they want. Anybody who doesn't vote can't complain if the vote didn't go the way they wanted - the rules were there. I would also put in that in elections on a FPTP, if the total vote in the constituency is less than 50% of the electorate, then there should be a run off between the top 2 - should start to concentrate minds.
It also explains why Scotland qualified for international tournaments in 1982, 1986, 1990, 1992, 1996, and 1998.
Have you noticed how the Scottish football teamed stopped qualifying for major tournaments since Holyrood opened.0 -
I couldn't care less who you vote for. Your knowledge of financial reality regarding the £39b is sufficient to suggest you are a Corbyn supporter anyway.TGOHF said:
Meh - you can snark all you want but wild horses wont drag me to the polling booth to back the Cons under this regime.felix said:
It's a shame you cannot post any of what you are smoking cos i'd love to try some of it.TGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.0 -
ComRes
Do you think there should be a second referendum on whether Britain remains a member of the EU, or not?
NET: Yes 47%
Yes, with or without a deal 36%
Yes, but only if there’s no deal 12%
No, the 2016 referendum result should be respected 53%
Just over half (53%) do not think there should be a second referendum but that the 2016 referendum result should be respected.
One third (36%) say there should be a second referendum with or without a deal.
One in ten (12%) say there should be a second referendum if there is no deal.
Seven in ten (71%) Conservative voters do not think there should be a second referendum and the 2016 result should be respected, compared with one third (33%) of Labour voters.
Half (51%) of 18-24 year olds say there should be a second referendum with or without a deal, compared with one in five (21%) 65+ year olds.0 -
And the tens of thousands employed in these factories?TGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.0 -
More ComRes
f there was a referendum tomorrow on whether to leave the EU, which of the following best describes your opinion?
I would vote to stay in 45%
I would vote to leave 43%
I’ve had enough of Brexit and wouldn’t vote 10%
I would spoil my ballot in protest at being asked the same question again 2%
Just under half (45%) would vote Remain in a referendum now, while almost the same proportion (43%) would vote Leave. Excluding those who would not vote or spoil their ballot papers, this equates to a Remain win of 49% to 51% - in other words, too close to call.
Two thirds (67%) of Conservative voters would vote Leave now, compared with just over one in four (28%) Labour voters.
Almost two thirds (63%) of 18-24s would vote Remain; however almost exactly the same proportion (62%) of 65+ year olds say would Leave. Given that the 65+ age group are substantially more likely than 18-24s to vote, the results confirm ComRes polling that, to coin a phrase, ‘nothing has changed’ since the 2016 Referendum.
Finally, one in ten (10%) say they have had enough of Brexit and wouldn’t vote if there was a referendum tomorrow.0 -
He's in denial, and has been for some time.JosiasJessop said:
Ah yes, another person to blame instead of looking at your own culpability.MarqueeMark said:
When will it end? "Well, I blame the person who delivers the milk to the hairdresser of the woman who prepares the schedule of Mrs May's chiropodist."
Grow a pair, man;0 -
And your ability to analyse polling is even worse than your financial understanding - I know a few Nigerian princes who'd like a chat pronto.TGOHF said:0 -
Yes, I think that's right. You have a bill to accept the deal. Amendments to go for no deal or for a referendum (in @big_G_NorthWales ' example) fall. The bill as a whole is put to the vote. The bill doesn't pass either. So that you're back to the previous "no deal is the default" situation. There's no way of forcing the house to choose one option of three, so doesn't matter which order they are presented in.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think the problem you would have there would be the lack of ability to compel the Government to take action. It is, as I understand it, simply impossible to legislate against a No Deal because that is the default if the Government does nothing before March 29th.... I think.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through
The only way no-deal ceases to be the default is to pass something new, or pass something to repeal the previous Brexit legislation.0 -
Yes, the true level of Tory support is much lower. And will be lower tomorrow.John_M said:
Must be an outlier.bigjohnowls said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
31m31 minutes ago
More
Westminster voting intentiomn:
LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 36% (-5)
UKIP: 8% (+2)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @OpiniumReseach, 14 Nov
Chgs. w/ 11 Oct0 -
How do you vote it down? As long as May remains in power (or if she is replaced by another Brexit supporter) she cannot be compelled to settle a deal. All she or her successor have to do is do nothing until March 29th. For all that I am in favour of any form of Brexit, I do see this as a great failing in our current constitutional arrangements.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not if no deal is voted downrottenborough said:
If May's Deal is voted down (even after the others), doesn't it just then default to No Deal unless she gets A50 extension?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through0 -
Apologies if already shared. Very good stuff.
https://www.captiongenerator.com/1176382/Jacob-Rees-Mogg-saves-Brexit#.W_BRR4YanUO.twitter0 -
May can produce a masterstroke if she supports a Deal versus Remain binary referendum. She can plausibly argue that "no deal" cannot be supported by any reponsible government and that the withdrawal agreement is the only plausible gateway to a negotiated exit.williamglenn said:
The government enables 'No Brexit' via a second referendum which allows it to expose Corbyn's cynical positioning.rcs1000 said:shiney, GIN et al:
The EU is unlikely to offer us a better deal.
The question therefore becomes stark: does the government back No Deal, which would allow it to capture some UKIP votes, but would probably mean losing soft Leave votes to absentions, Labour or the LibDems?
Or does the government back this deal, which keeps the LibDem vote share depressed, but risks losing votes to UKIP?
With support for No Deal Brexit of 32%, and with some of that being left wing No Deal (a la Sandy Rentool), and some of it being loonies who'd back UKIP (because Muslims) irrespective, it's not clear to me that the Conservatives would be pursuing a winning strategy by going the No Deal route.
It's also clear that those who lost jobs - and yes even if it turned out to be all sunshine and roses, there would be some losers - would probably never return to the Conservatives.0 -
If the party had rallied around the leader and put the national interest first - both things that once upon a time were core Conservative instincts - things might be very different.TGOHF said:0 -
The “evidence always fits my conclusion” school of thought.felix said:
And your ability to analyse polling is even worse than your financial understanding - I know a few Nigerian princes who'd like a chat pronto.TGOHF said:0 -
The existing treaty obligations, even walking out, add upto approx 30 billion over 45 years. So that money is due and payable no matter what you doTGOHF said:
What are you getting for £39Bn - sell it to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not have 39 billion. The treaty obligations are in the region of 30 billion leaving 9 billionTGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.
TM made the point on wednesday, and it has been repeated by many, the UK stands by its legal obligations. Ignore them and we become a pariah state
But since when have brexiteers understood anything about the reality of their position
And of course brexiters do not care about manufacturing cars or aerospace. Boris affirmed that when he told Airbus to FO
I do find it odd that brexiteers not only want to trash our economy but walk away from our international obligations which are enforceable anyway0 -
Welcome back, Mr. Tyndall.0
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I could have saved them a load of money and told them that and thrown in May is crap questions as a freebie.TheScreamingEagles said:More ComRes
f there was a referendum tomorrow on whether to leave the EU, which of the following best describes your opinion?
I would vote to stay in 45%
I would vote to leave 43%
I’ve had enough of Brexit and wouldn’t vote 10%
I would spoil my ballot in protest at being asked the same question again 2%
Just under half (45%) would vote Remain in a referendum now, while almost the same proportion (43%) would vote Leave. Excluding those who would not vote or spoil their ballot papers, this equates to a Remain win of 49% to 51% - in other words, too close to call.
Two thirds (67%) of Conservative voters would vote Leave now, compared with just over one in four (28%) Labour voters.
Almost two thirds (63%) of 18-24s would vote Remain; however almost exactly the same proportion (62%) of 65+ year olds say would Leave. Given that the 65+ age group are substantially more likely than 18-24s to vote, the results confirm ComRes polling that, to coin a phrase, ‘nothing has changed’ since the 2016 Referendum.
Finally, one in ten (10%) say they have had enough of Brexit and wouldn’t vote if there was a referendum tomorrow.0 -
A lot of denial and butt hurt about tonight. May has blown this big time.felix said:
And your ability to analyse polling is even worse than your financial understanding - I know a few Nigerian princes who'd like a chat pronto.TGOHF said:
Quicker she is gone the better - can't limp on for another 6 months - poisoning the well.0 -
ERG have played a big roll but interesting to see how well supported TM is in the pollingTGOHF said:0 -
Welcome back @Richard_Tyndall - you’ve been missed!0
-
Is it a big cheese roll?Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have played a big roll but interesting to see how well supported TM is in the pollingTGOHF said:0 -
It would be her last act as Conservative leader (possibly her first brave one on some definitions), but as far as I can see, once the bill was introduced, it might make its way through the house before a new leader was in place. It would probably enjoy majority support. It's possible the only recourse of the ERG and friends at that stage would be to try and NC the government and cause a GE.NorthofStoke said:
May can produce a masterstroke if she supports a Deal versus Remain binary referendum. She can plausibly argue that "no deal" cannot be supported by any reponsible government and that the withdrawal agreement is the only plausible gateway to a negotiated exit.williamglenn said:
The government enables 'No Brexit' via a second referendum which allows it to expose Corbyn's cynical positioning.rcs1000 said:shiney, GIN et al:
The EU is unlikely to offer us a better deal.
The question therefore becomes stark: does the government back No Deal, which would allow it to capture some UKIP votes, but would probably mean losing soft Leave votes to absentions, Labour or the LibDems?
Or does the government back this deal, which keeps the LibDem vote share depressed, but risks losing votes to UKIP?
With support for No Deal Brexit of 32%, and with some of that being left wing No Deal (a la Sandy Rentool), and some of it being loonies who'd back UKIP (because Muslims) irrespective, it's not clear to me that the Conservatives would be pursuing a winning strategy by going the No Deal route.
It's also clear that those who lost jobs - and yes even if it turned out to be all sunshine and roses, there would be some losers - would probably never return to the Conservatives.0 -
More of a souffle - puffed up, mostly hot air, and prone to collapse.Bromptonaut said:
Is it a big cheese roll?Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have played a big roll but interesting to see how well supported TM is in the pollingTGOHF said:0 -
Unless A50 is extended or withdrawn I think we leave by automatic process of law. Parliamentary motions of themselves change nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not if no deal is voted downrottenborough said:
If May's Deal is voted down (even after the others), doesn't it just then default to No Deal unless she gets A50 extension?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through0 -
I think that is plausible and thanksPolruan said:
Yes, I think that's right. You have a bill to accept the deal. Amendments to go for no deal or for a referendum (in @big_G_NorthWales ' example) fall. The bill as a whole is put to the vote. The bill doesn't pass either. So that you're back to the previous "no deal is the default" situation. There's no way of forcing the house to choose one option of three, so doesn't matter which order they are presented in.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think the problem you would have there would be the lack of ability to compel the Government to take action. It is, as I understand it, simply impossible to legislate against a No Deal because that is the default if the Government does nothing before March 29th.... I think.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I keep asking the question which does not seem to be getting traction but is really very important.rottenborough said:
May needs to put her Deal to the vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be allowed to happen. The mps have to stop it or they will all be unelectablerottenborough said:
The Tories will suffer a Canada level existential event if it is No Deal and that scenario does turn out to involve empty shelves, lorry parks, meds in short supply and even deaths.rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
If it falls, she should immediately request that the EU allow an extension of A50.
The Brexit the ultra unicorn lovers dream of should be put out of their reach.
When it comes to the meaningful vote the government will take the amendments first. You can bet Bercow will accept a second referendum amendment which looks as if it would fall.
It then leaves no deal which surely must fall
And we are the left with deal and that is the way TM gets the deal
I am very much open to comments on this that would change the whole likelyihood of the deal going through
The only way no-deal ceases to be the default is to pass something new, or pass something to repeal the previous Brexit legislation.0 -
No, the Brexiteers have. And they have a rather long and far-from-illustrious history of doing exactly that under Thatcher, Major, Cameron and now May.TGOHF said:
Except now we have the delights of a Corbyn-led government as the alternative.0 -
Both tonight's polls have Labour down slightly on the general election. It's a swing from Con to UKIP that's the main movement.0
-
Shrugs - I won't be voting for her.JosiasJessop said:
No, the Brexiteers have. And they have a rather long and far-from-illustrious history of doing exactly that under Thatcher, Major, Cameron and now May.TGOHF said:
Except now we have the delights of a Corbyn-led government as the alternative.0 -
Not clear which side would win another referendum, in other words.TheScreamingEagles said:More ComRes
f there was a referendum tomorrow on whether to leave the EU, which of the following best describes your opinion?
I would vote to stay in 45%
I would vote to leave 43%
I’ve had enough of Brexit and wouldn’t vote 10%
I would spoil my ballot in protest at being asked the same question again 2%
Just under half (45%) would vote Remain in a referendum now, while almost the same proportion (43%) would vote Leave. Excluding those who would not vote or spoil their ballot papers, this equates to a Remain win of 49% to 51% - in other words, too close to call.
Two thirds (67%) of Conservative voters would vote Leave now, compared with just over one in four (28%) Labour voters.
Almost two thirds (63%) of 18-24s would vote Remain; however almost exactly the same proportion (62%) of 65+ year olds say would Leave. Given that the 65+ age group are substantially more likely than 18-24s to vote, the results confirm ComRes polling that, to coin a phrase, ‘nothing has changed’ since the 2016 Referendum.
Finally, one in ten (10%) say they have had enough of Brexit and wouldn’t vote if there was a referendum tomorrow.0 -
Broken, sleazy, DIVIDED Tories on the slide!Scott_P said:0 -
Scotland South Africa has had a cracking first half.
Fear for Scotland in the second though.-1 -
Welcome back!Richard_Tyndall said:Excellent thread header by Fisherman. The best for a long time. But of course I only say that because I agree with everything he says. If I disagreed then it would be the worst thread header I had seen in ages on here.
On the question of the moment I am reluctantly in Casino Royal's camp. Thanks to May's ineptitude and iniquity this is a pretty awful deal but I would take it any day over Remain. I would be 50:50 over this Deal compared to No Deal, mostly because of the threat of Brexit being cancelled if this deal falls.
It does all however reinforce my view that all politicians are basically dishonest shits and the sooner we have more direct democracy the better.0 -
I am not seeing anything in these polls to indicate the Tories would be doing better with a Buccaneer in charge. Given May’s comparative popularity there is an argument to say they’d actually be doing worse.0
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Says the man who will accept no responsibility for Brexit being a consequence of his lot lying to the electorate for forty years.JosiasJessop said:
Ah yes, another person to blame instead of looking at your own culpability.MarqueeMark said:
When will it end? "Well, I blame the person who delivers the milk to the hairdresser of the woman who prepares the schedule of Mrs May's chiropodist."
Grow a pair, man;
Grow a fucking spine, man. Take the blame.0 -
That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.0
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Good to hear you are well, but there has been some concern about you.Richard_Tyndall said:
Thanks JJ I am fine. I am generally staying away from posting on the site because I find myself wanting to say things to people that they do not deserve. Better to say nothing at all.JosiasJessop said:
Welcome back, Mr Tyndall. I hope you are well.Richard_Tyndall said:Excellent thread header by Fisherman. The best for a long time. But of course I only say that because I agree with everything he says. If I disagreed then it would be the worst thread header I had seen in ages on here.
On the question of the moment I am reluctantly in Casino Royal's camp. Thanks to May's ineptitude and iniquity this is a pretty awful deal but I would take it any day over Remain. I would be 50:50 over this Deal compared to No Deal, mostly because of the threat of Brexit being cancelled if this deal falls.
It does all however reinforce my view that all politicians are basically dishonest shits and the sooner we have more direct democracy the better.
I fear you've heard the sad news of Plato's passing?0 -
Direct democracy leads immediately to demagoguery. The Athenians voted to put Socrates to death (and the generals at Arginusae, and the inhabitants of Mytilene, and stacks of other people) for a bit of fun and because unscrupulous demagogues put them up to it. It is entirely non-coincidental that the euref was swung by buses and xenophobia. How the Swiss get round this problem I don't know, but if ancient Athens couldn't manage it I doubt we can.0
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I've always thought that nothing much has changed in terms of Remain/Leave sentiment in the country at large. Ultras on both sides like to believe otherwise of course. Farage, for instance, thinks another referendum would see a 60% Leave vote but there's no evidence that would happen.MaxPB said:That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.
0 -
You need to look at the other questions, it is clear that the voters, mostly Leavers who think things like lack of food and meds in the event of no deal is just Project Fear.MaxPB said:That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.
If the reality of that changes then Remain's going to get a surge.0 -
That's a harsh yellow card, I'm not even sure that's a deliberate knock on.0
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There isn't going to be any going back by then so it will be rejoin, which isn't going to be on the table.TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look at the other questions, it is clear that the voters, mostly Leavers who think things like lack of food and meds in the event of no deal is just Project Fear.MaxPB said:That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.
If the reality of that changes then Remain's going to get a surge.0 -
It’s pretty obvious that “Do you still really want a unicorn?” will lead unicorn-wanters to say “yes, we do, and why do you want do ask again?”MaxPB said:That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.
The important thing is what their reply is to the real world question: “we’re offering you the best we can find: do you want this elegant donkey/ice cream cone combo?”0 -
Seems likely that the Con drop is largely a function of the resignations / turmoil / divisions within the party.
The polling post Chequers when Con dropped but then recovered quickly shows that the vast majority of the public are not concerned about the minutiae of the negotiations and precisely what has been agreed / not agreed.
Indeed the vast majority haven't the faintest idea what is in / not in the agreement.
Going forward, all that people are going to be concerned about is whether Brexit actually happens in some shape or form - the only single exception being that people will care about Freedom of Movement.
Everything else - customs unions, single markets, backstops, trade agreements etc etc - forget it.0 -
There will have to be a deal at some point. The one we get after we’ve gone back following two or three weeks of actually experiencing No Deal will be worse than the one May has got now.MaxPB said:
There isn't going to be any going back by then so it will be rejoin, which isn't going to be on the table.TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look at the other questions, it is clear that the voters, mostly Leavers who think things like lack of food and meds in the event of no deal is just Project Fear.MaxPB said:That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.
If the reality of that changes then Remain's going to get a surge.
0 -
Quite possibly. But watching May/Hammond's public evisceration will take the edge off it.TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look at the other questions, it is clear that the voters, mostly Leavers who think things like lack of food and meds in the event of no deal is just Project Fear.MaxPB said:That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.
If the reality of that changes then Remain's going to get a surge.0 -
It’s a compliment that anyone would write a thread header in response to one of my own. Thank you.0
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Yes that's true, which is why this deal will probably pass, of the 40 or so letter writers 10 will be bought off by the cosmetic changes the gang of five will get and enough Labour MPs will break ranks IMO.SouthamObserver said:
There will have to be a deal at some point. The one we get after we’ve gone back following two or three weeks of actually experiencing No Deal will be worse than the one May has got now.MaxPB said:
There isn't going to be any going back by then so it will be rejoin, which isn't going to be on the table.TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look at the other questions, it is clear that the voters, mostly Leavers who think things like lack of food and meds in the event of no deal is just Project Fear.MaxPB said:That Comres poll makes for miserable reading for remainers. Two point lead after all the relentless negativity for two years. That's literally nothing.
If the reality of that changes then Remain's going to get a surge.0 -
"My lot?"MarqueeMark said:
Says the man who will accept no responsibility for Brexit being a consequence of his lot lying to the electorate for forty years.JosiasJessop said:
Ah yes, another person to blame instead of looking at your own culpability.MarqueeMark said:
When will it end? "Well, I blame the person who delivers the milk to the hairdresser of the woman who prepares the schedule of Mrs May's chiropodist."
Grow a pair, man;
Grow a fucking spine, man. Take the blame.
Which lot is that? I was going to vote leave, but the inherent and obvious contradictions - lie - at the heart of the leave campaigns were a major factor in my voting remain.And my fears were sadly proven correct.
For the record, I've never argued strongly for remain or leave: I just want to see a successful, thriving country. And I've said many times, before and after the referendum, that the country can be successful and thrive in or out of the EU, just as it could be a failure in or out.
As for your last line: I've got a spine, thanks.0 -
There is a disturbing lack of realisation on this board that dropping out of the EU without a deal has a pretty severe impact on the UK's non-EU trade.
We have not replicated the Open Skies agreement with the US, nor the seven bilateral trade agreements, nor the Atlantic Council for dispute resolution. These are mostly technical and uncontroversial (except Open Skies). But with a distracted US administration and an incompetent DfIT, dropping out without a deal could have a major negative impact on the UK's exports to the US.
Likewise, we drop out of existing agreements with the EFTA countries, with South Korea and Canada. Worse, prior trading frameworks have been retired to be replaced by EU agreements, so we'd be starting from scratch in many cases.
In my video, I said that the UK's non-EU exports would be - in the short term - more negatively impacted than EU ones. That remains the case.0 -
If the party could agree what is "the national interest" the problem would not have arisen in the first place.IanB2 said:
If the party had rallied around the leader and put the national interest first - both things that once upon a time were core Conservative instincts - things might be very different.TGOHF said:0 -
Unless referendums get a landslide win eg the Common Market referendum or the AV referendum of 60% or more they never solve anything as Scotland and the EU referendum proved but just lead to division. They should be saved more major constitutional issues only and only if there is real public demand for them and they are a manifesto commitment of the governing party otherwise we should lead legislating and policy making to the legislators we elect0
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Yep.TGOHF said:
Not for me - reading that Spectator piece on the horrific content of the deal has put me right off. What sort of PM offers that up ? It's a shocker.MikeL said:Seems likely that the Con drop is largely a function of the resignations / turmoil / divisions within the party.
.
It's real election leaflet stuff. Nice simple bullet points aimed right at the Guilty.
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That assumes Leave with a Deal though, propose Leave with No Deal and Remain would win comfortably.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Do you think there should be a second referendum on whether Britain remains a member of the EU, or not?
NET: Yes 47%
Yes, with or without a deal 36%
Yes, but only if there’s no deal 12%
No, the 2016 referendum result should be respected 53%
Just over half (53%) do not think there should be a second referendum but that the 2016 referendum result should be respected.
One third (36%) say there should be a second referendum with or without a deal.
One in ten (12%) say there should be a second referendum if there is no deal.
Seven in ten (71%) Conservative voters do not think there should be a second referendum and the 2016 result should be respected, compared with one third (33%) of Labour voters.
Half (51%) of 18-24 year olds say there should be a second referendum with or without a deal, compared with one in five (21%) 65+ year olds.
Notice support for EUref2 jumps from 36% to 48% if No Deal ie almost 50% and YouGov had over 60% backing EUref2 if No Deal last week once you exclude Don't Knows0 -
A similar result to post Chequers polling ie some movement from Con to UKIP who move up to 7% (which would be their second highest general election total since 2015, so much for Brexit killing UKIP then) but even with May's Deal the Tories are still polling at 2010 and 2015 levels and Labour is unchanged on 2017TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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As the house of lords report said the legal obligations are unclear and likely nowhere near £39B. The majority of which is for two years of transition which covers the current budget agreement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The existing treaty obligations, even walking out, add upto approx 30 billion over 45 years. So that money is due and payable no matter what you doTGOHF said:
What are you getting for £39Bn - sell it to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not have 39 billion. The treaty obligations are in the region of 30 billion leaving 9 billionTGOHF said:
Use the £39Bn as a stimulus to avoid any dip. You have 3 years until the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How are you going to avoid the international treaty obligations of approx 30 billion, huge collapse in the pound, JIT manufacturing paralysed, and fury across the nationTGOHF said:
Depends entirely on how they react - a radical PM could see a second Thatcherite revolution.rottenborough said:rcs1000 said:
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the polls would be saying if it was announced that it had been impossible to reach agreement with the EU, and we were leaving without a deal, and please fasten your seabelts?TGOHF said:Unsurprising drop in the polls as the scales fall away from the eyes of the public and they see what a clusterfudge the May/Hammond axis of crap has made of the negotiations.
As a lifelong Con voter I wont be voting for them again whilst these two are at the helm.
Get the letters in please Con MPs.
Because the prior polling might have been based on Schrodinger's Brexit.
Quit the EU cleanly. Massive tax cuts and investment incentives and focus on the future.
And there is no radical pm out there that could get consensus, especially from ERG
Importing high value car parts to screw into a chassis is overrated anyway.
TM made the point on wednesday, and it has been repeated by many, the UK stands by its legal obligations. Ignore them and we become a pariah state
But since when have brexiteers understood anything about the reality of their position
And of course brexiters do not care about manufacturing cars or aerospace. Boris affirmed that when he told Airbus to FO
I do find it odd that brexiteers not only want to trash our economy but walk away from our international obligations which are enforceable anyway
No deal results in no transition and an open question as to whether we're liable for a budget spent when we're no longer members.0 -
Thanks for the header, Fisherman.0
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The 2016 referendum fulfilled all of those criteria.HYUFD said:They should be saved more major constitutional issues only and only if there is real public demand for them and they are a manifesto commitment of the governing party otherwise we should lead legislating and policy making to the legislators we elect
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The opportunity cost of the Brexit vote and result thereof must be massive....0
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Indeed. Very thought-provoking,RobD said:Thanks for the header, Fisherman.
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Forget watergate, bloodgate, horseygate, crying at a funeral-gate,
Now there is fart-gate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/amp/darts/462459930 -
My favourite was lasagnegate when Spurs bottled qualification for the Champions League in 2006.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget watergate, bloodgate, horseygate, crying at a funeral-gate,
Now there is fart-gate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/amp/darts/462459930 -
March in Canada...make sure you pack your thermals!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo I'm so glad I'm spending most of next March and April in Canada.
My threads will be focussing on the Sunlit Uplands of Brexit.0 -
You mean Southern Canada it isn't like California?FrancisUrquhart said:
March in Canada...make sure you pack your thermals!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo I'm so glad I'm spending most of next March and April in Canada.
My threads will be focussing on the Sunlit Uplands of Brexit.0 -
Not at the moment:TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean Southern Canada it isn't like California?FrancisUrquhart said:
March in Canada...make sure you pack your thermals!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo I'm so glad I'm spending most of next March and April in Canada.
My threads will be focussing on the Sunlit Uplands of Brexit.
California wildfires: The day Paradise burned down
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-461984980 -
Surely you mean someone made mincemeat of them.TheScreamingEagles said:
My favourite was lasagnegate when Spurs bottled qualification for the Champions League in 2006.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget watergate, bloodgate, horseygate, crying at a funeral-gate,
Now there is fart-gate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/amp/darts/46245993
Or where there extra layers of meaning to your bottling comment?0 -
The polling tonight suggests
TM is popular and the Country want her to negotiate Brexit
There is some movement to UKIP from the conservatives
There is little evidence of a move to remain
There is little appetite for a second referendum0 -
I was saying that before the referendum! (In fact, I thought if you googled "opportunity cost" you'd only find me).Scrapheap_as_was said:The opportunity cost of the Brexit vote and result thereof must be massive....
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