politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So the Deal’s going down. Then what?
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I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sky subscribers are all Tories, aren't they?alex. said:
There was something not right about that Sky poll - it was "a representative sample of Sky customers". I would be slightly surprised if you could construct a nationally representative poll from purely Sky customers.HYUFD said:
Currently just 32% back No Deal according to Sky and Survation this week, once the economy crashes so will Brexit and certainly hard Brexitydoethur said:
The laws of politics, sanity and physics have been suspended.HYUFD said:
What an absurd point, No Deal still screws us far more than it screws the EU because it will hit a for bigger proportion if our economyDavid_Evershed said:
But EU exports are far greater than UK exports.HYUFD said:
The UK is 16% of EU exports, the EU is 44% of UK exports.Philip_Thompson said:
Replacing Theresa May would make a lot of sense if you plan on either Brexit with no deal (or more likely a series of mini deals) or Remain since May isn't preparing for or seeking either of those.AlastairMeeks said:Replacing Theresa May would be displacement activity. Whatever her many flaws, it would deflect from the basic choice, which is: go with this deal; Brexit with no deal; or Remain. (“Renegotiating” is just another way of deferring the same choice because no one on the EU side has the time, interest or energy to engage with this, nor should they when Britain is so hopelessly riven - it would simply encourage the next group of impossibilists to hold out for more.)
The choice does not change with the leader. The problem is that the choice has yet to be made by MPs.
And while no one on the EU side has the time, interest or energy to engage with this that is because they think May is done for and will sign whatever deal they give her, which is the case. If they found that suddenly in charge of the UK was someone who was dead seriously preparing for no deal they might suddenly find they have the time, interest and energy afterall.
To seek peace, prepare for war.
The idea the EU will blink because of No Deal is absurd. If anyone blinks it will be us
So 16% of a big number is much the same as 44% of a small number.
No, I'm not bobbing on the ceiling, I'm just finding myself in agreement with Hyufd.0 -
It’s the same question, framed differently. The difference being in my scenario the withdrawal bill can pass and we get to explore the trade agreement first.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I simply don't agree. You're creating a new article 50 style right, but it is definitely something new - let's call it Article 50A. The consequence of triggering Article 50A is inexorably a hard border in Ireland. So you have definitely created a new Irish border question.Jonathan said:
This is just plain vanilla EU membership terms. There is no additional Irish border question. The incentives are no worse than the backstop.TheWhiteRabbit said:
OK, so the Irish have ruled that out because (in their view) the EU should never agree/sanction a deal which would entitle the UK to legitimately create a hard border in Ireland. It also creates a weird set of incentives for the ultra-remain and ultra-no-deal camps, but I accept no system is perfect in that regard.Jonathan said:
Imagine 3 years down the line, with a reentry backstop there are 3 outcomes.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't understand. If re-entry is the backstop, then (unless the UK defaults on its international obligations) hard Brexit is impossible.Jonathan said:
Because we can immediately trigger hard Brexit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
What's the EU's incentive to agree a new partnership if they can sit on their hands for two years?Jonathan said:
Reentry is a better backstop.SouthamObserver said:
The backstop has to exist until the final deal is done. Whether it is ever used or not it has to be in the withdrawal agreement.
1) The illusory permenant trade deal
2) Reentry and long term membership
3) Rentry and A50, this time with no negotiation and two years to implement no deal exit.
Whilst 3) might sound weird and would probably not be implemented exactly like that. It has the advantage of the U.K. unilaterally deciding its fate and together no Irish backstop issue at all.
What’s more it does not contradict the 2016 vote. We would have left. There could be a vote in 2021 on the 2 or three options.0 -
With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.0 -
The sample can still be demographically balanced like any other. It's not obvious why Sky customers should be more inherently biased than people who join panels for other pollsters.viewcode said:I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.
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The EU indicated last night the only grounds to delay A50 were a second referendum or GEGoupillon said:If the police investigation into the Leave campaign's financing and overspending results in the people responsible being charged during the next 3 months surely the 2016 referendum's validity will be even more strongly questioned. For this and several other very sound political reasons there has to be a second referendum/"Peoples Vote" and the Government needs to request the EU for at least a 2 month extension to the 29th March exit date as soon as possible to ensure this can happen.
However, it would not permit any change to renegotiate the deal.0 -
My knee-jerk non-lawyer view would be that the common-sense finding would be "revocable by mutual consent between the UK and European Commission"YellowSubmarine said:The CJEU hearing on revocability of A50 is scheduled for 27/11 two days after EUCO will sign off on the deal. If the deal is voted down we may very well get a definitive ruling before a second vote. Who knows what the ECJE will say ? They could say A50 is totally and unilaterally revocabile. Huge win for Remainders and would blow the debate wide open. We could keep the status quo by sending a letter. They might say A50 is completely unrevocable ending any discussion of a second referendum. They could fudge along the lines of current council/comission thinking.
Who knows ? But the potential impact is why the government has been so desperate to block the referal from a UK Court.
This week we'll get the Supreme Court 3 Justice panel ( including Lady Hale the President ) decision on letting HMG appeal *despite* the Scottish courts refusing leave to appeal. The government has been refused a hearing and the decision is being made on the papers. Of course if the Supreme Court does stop the Scottish courts referal and thus we get no judgement on revocability it'll be a huge PR coup for the Nationalists.0 -
Wasn't she publicly trying to oust Theresa May a year ago....rottenborough said:0 -
"In reality, a no-deal Brexit would be an economic and political calamity worse than the Winter of Discontent in the Seventies, worse than the three-day week and potentially even more damaging than the Great Depression."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html0 -
Sounds good. Let’s get on with it then.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU indicated last night the only grounds to delay A50 were a second referendum or GEGoupillon said:If the police investigation into the Leave campaign's financing and overspending results in the people responsible being charged during the next 3 months surely the 2016 referendum's validity will be even more strongly questioned. For this and several other very sound political reasons there has to be a second referendum/"Peoples Vote" and the Government needs to request the EU for at least a 2 month extension to the 29th March exit date as soon as possible to ensure this can happen.
However, it would not permit any change to renegotiate the deal.0 -
Recidivist, c. 60% of the revenues are circulation and that is slowly increasing. You can do something about circulation (basically, increase the cover price by a small amount where ytou don't drive away customers), advertising less so.Recidivist said:
Genuine question - is it the cover price or the advertising sales that generate most cash? If it's the latter then things might be going according to plan.TheKitchenCabinet said:For those interested in the Daily Mail's stance towards TM, look out for November 29th when the financial results of the parent company, DMGT, are published.
A few have commented on here about the Daily Mail's falling circulation (down low teens year on year, which is the key metric). That has been accelerating for some time. Less commented on is that the website is underperforming the other newspaper groups' websites as well and is down nearly 20% yoy in terms of traffic.
The newspapers have become, paradoxically, more important to DMGT as they have been disposing of other assets (now over 1/3 of profits). Falls in advertising and circulation revenues drop through at a high rate to profits (well over 50%) and there is a limit to how much more cost cutting can be done.
In my mind, if the newspaper results are bad, then I don't think DMGT's owner, Lord Rothermere, will give Georgie Greig much more time, especially if the view sticks that the DM's stance is driving away readers. His main wealth is in DMGT and the shares tend to react very badly to poor news on the newspapers. He will also be conscious of how the Express' circulation was fatally impacted by its dalliance with Blair in the 1990s (which helped the Mail).
ps some have commented that Dacre left in September and the circulation numbers looked weak then. That is not the key date - it was back in June when the news on Greig was announced. Many of the writers then realised they needed to become less Brexit-y to survive.0 -
Looks like she's not prepared to vote for the deal right now either. Whilst most of my ire is reserved for the ERG wing of the Tories....Danny565 said:
Wasn't she publicly trying to oust Theresa May a year ago....rottenborough said:0 -
I don't think so. She urged May to face down the Brexiteers and "sling 'em out".Danny565 said:
Wasn't she publicly trying to oust Theresa May a year ago....rottenborough said:0 -
JRM said we'd be a trillion quid better off. He is probably wrong but too much political debate starts with the assumption that the other lot (Brexiteers, Remainers, Jeremy Corbyn) share your analysis and are deliberately screwing the country.rottenborough said:"In reality, a no-deal Brexit would be an economic and political calamity worse than the Winter of Discontent in the Seventies, worse than the three-day week and potentially even more damaging than the Great Depression."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html0 -
It wasn't a representative sample of Sky customers (to my understanding) I believe it was a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers.viewcode said:I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.
In the same way that a YouGov poll is not a representative sample of YouGov panel members, it is a nationally representative poll constituted from YouGov panel members.
There may be something self-selecting from those who sign up to Sky, but there may too be something self-selecting from those who sign up to YouGov.0 -
Or in reality it may be much ado about nothing.rottenborough said:"In reality, a no-deal Brexit would be an economic and political calamity worse than the Winter of Discontent in the Seventies, worse than the three-day week and potentially even more damaging than the Great Depression."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html0 -
Paradoxically it used to be the case that most newspapers could be given away for free, the advertising rates were so good. Why charge? To give the product a perception of value to the reader, the more expensive, the better it must be, and the higher the rate card.Recidivist said:
Genuine question - is it the cover price or the advertising sales that generate most cash? If it's the latter then things might be going according to plan.TheKitchenCabinet said:For those interested in the Daily Mail's stance towards TM, look out for November 29th when the financial results of the parent company, DMGT, are published.
A few have commented on here about the Daily Mail's falling circulation (down low teens year on year, which is the key metric). That has been accelerating for some time. Less commented on is that the website is underperforming the other newspaper groups' websites as well and is down nearly 20% yoy in terms of traffic.
The newspapers have become, paradoxically, more important to DMGT as they have been disposing of other assets (now over 1/3 of profits). Falls in advertising and circulation revenues drop through at a high rate to profits (well over 50%) and there is a limit to how much more cost cutting can be done.
In my mind, if the newspaper results are bad, then I don't think DMGT's owner, Lord Rothermere, will give Georgie Greig much more time, especially if the view sticks that the DM's stance is driving away readers. His main wealth is in DMGT and the shares tend to react very badly to poor news on the newspapers. He will also be conscious of how the Express' circulation was fatally impacted by its dalliance with Blair in the 1990s (which helped the Mail).
ps some have commented that Dacre left in September and the circulation numbers looked weak then. That is not the key date - it was back in June when the news on Greig was announced. Many of the writers then realised they needed to become less Brexit-y to survive.0 -
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.0
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The Brexit Fantasy Goes Down in Tears - New Yorker article
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-brexit-fantasy-goes-down-in-tears?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral0 -
The only clear barrier to signing up to YouGov is access to the internet. Access to which is mostly universal these days. And they do claim that the history of polling responses allows them to detect should respondents show characteristics deviating from the non-panel population.Philip_Thompson said:
It wasn't a representative sample of Sky customers (to my understanding) I believe it was a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers.viewcode said:I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.
In the same way that a YouGov poll is not a representative sample of YouGov panel members, it is a nationally representative poll constituted from YouGov panel members.
There may be something self-selecting from those who sign up to Sky, but there may too be something self-selecting from those who sign up to YouGov.
There are other barriers to becoming a Sky customer (most obviously, financial).0 -
Goupillon said:
If the police investigation into the Leave campaign's financing and overspending results in the people responsible being charged during the next 3 months surely the 2016 referendum's validity will be even more strongly questioned. For this and several other very sound political reasons there has to be a second referendum/"Peoples Vote" and the Government needs to request the EU for at least a 2 month extension to the 29th March exit date as soon as possible to ensure this can happen.
So my theory that the Mail might do better by appealing to a more prosperous demographic isn't totally off whack? And being less partisan would probably be attractive to mass market brands. (Just thinking out loud - I don't have any real idea of how the newspaper business works.)OchEye said:
Paradoxically it used to be the case that most newspapers could be given away for free, the advertising rates were so good. Why charge? To give the product a perception of value to the reader, the more expensive, the better it must be, and the higher the rate card.Recidivist said:
Genuine question - is it the cover price or the advertising sales that generate most cash? If it's the latter then things might be going according to plan.TheKitchenCabinet said:For those interested in the Daily Mail's stance towards TM, look out for November 29th when the financial results of the parent company, DMGT, are published.
A few have commented on here about the Daily Mail's falling circulation (down low teens year on year, which is the key metric). That has been accelerating for some time. Less commented on is that the website is underperforming the other newspaper groups' websites as well and is down nearly 20% yoy in terms of traffic.
The newspapers have become, paradoxically, more important to DMGT as they have been disposing of other assets (now over 1/3 of profits). Falls in advertising and circulation revenues drop through at a high rate to profits (well over 50%) and there is a limit to how much more cost cutting can be done.
In my mind, if the newspaper results are bad, then I don't think DMGT's owner, Lord Rothermere, will give Georgie Greig much more time, especially if the view sticks that the DM's stance is driving away readers. His main wealth is in DMGT and the shares tend to react very badly to poor news on the newspapers. He will also be conscious of how the Express' circulation was fatally impacted by its dalliance with Blair in the 1990s (which helped the Mail).
ps some have commented that Dacre left in September and the circulation numbers looked weak then. That is not the key date - it was back in June when the news on Greig was announced. Many of the writers then realised they needed to become less Brexit-y to survive.0 -
What we need is a Leaver who can see the damage No Deal would cause, that Chequers is worse than staying and reverse the policy.rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
Gove?0 -
Good piece from David. I think the final conclusion paragraph sums up what I think is likely to happen, and why TM is pushing on.
We will do a deal, all far too later than it needed to be, and after much anguish and uncertainty, but as the clock runs down, I do think the EU may blink first, particularly as the Irish will move into full blown panic mode by Christmas if this isn't all nailed down. TM stays for some time yet.
I can see 29 March being shifted back 6+ months though, and the deal will involve fleshing out the future relationship in such detail that it will obviate the need for the hated backstop with the NI protocol removed from the withdrawal agreement and picked up in the future relationship terms.
Maybe I'm a fantasist....0 -
Oooh, now that's interesting. It's difficult to construct a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers. You can try, but you're going to bang up against small/no numbers at some point.Philip_Thompson said:
It wasn't a representative sample of Sky customers (to my understanding) I believe it was a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers.viewcode said:I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.
In the same way that a YouGov poll is not a representative sample of YouGov panel members, it is a nationally representative poll constituted from YouGov panel members.
There may be something self-selecting from those who sign up to Sky, but there may too be something self-selecting from those who sign up to YouGov.
Here's a real-life example. A study was done of pregnant women in India, then the study was combined with a similar study of pregnant women in England. A relationship was noted between maternal height and baby weight at birth. However the conclusion could not be carried across to English women, because all the numbers for really short women came from the Indian sample and there were no really short English women in the sample.
So the Sky sample can be weighted to make it representative, but in cases where subgroups are un/underepresented in the Sky sample, that's going to be a problem.
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LMAO, wasn't it already being claimed back in January that only a few more letters were required?rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
EDIT:
A no-confidence vote in the Conservative leader is automatically triggered if backbench chief Sir Graham Brady receives 48 letters from his colleagues.
It is believed that he has already been sent at least 40 - meaning that just eight more letters would force him to call a poll of all Tory MPs.
-26 January 2018
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5430183/theresa-may-could-face-leadership-challenge-if-just-eight-more-tory-mps-turn-against-her/0 -
No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7761661/no-confidence-vote-letters-theresa-may/0 -
Seems all the jokes on here about 47.999999 letters were true.Danny565 said:
LMAO, wasn't it already being claimed back in January that only a few more letters were required?rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
They never get there.0 -
But Steve Baker said that the ERG alone had 48 already in with a dozen more to come...?DecrepitJohnL said:
No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
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Listening to Any Questions on R4 last night was so depressing.
The 4 politicians on there exhibited the dire paucity of our political class at the moment. Admittedly, headbangers like Adonis and Redwood set a very low bar, but none of then turned up with any intellect in tow - just pre-rehearsed garbage.
The only hope on the panel was the CEO of Siemens, He regretted where we are, but accepted it, said May's deal would work and we should all see the compromise and swing behind it.
It's pretty much where I am.
I just fear that reason escapes our elected representatives just now and they're going to take us all down in flames for want of giving an inch.
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Yes, thx, sorry, my mistake. I was going to edit my comment, but got distracted.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
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It seems JRM's man servant (as Sandbrook now calls Baker) was incorrect.alex. said:
But Steve Baker said that the ERG alone had 48 already in with a dozen more to come...?DecrepitJohnL said:
No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
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Steve Baker might be right, or the Sun could be. It was said on this very here pb that Brady was away from Westminster yesterday (and presumably the weekend as well) in which case it is all just educated guesswork.alex. said:
But Steve Baker said that the ERG alone had 48 already in with a dozen more to come...?DecrepitJohnL said:
No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
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+1RobinWiggs said:Listening to Any Questions on R4 last night was so depressing.
The 4 politicians on there exhibited the dire paucity of our political class at the moment. Admittedly, headbangers like Adonis and Redwood set a very low bar, but none of then turned up with any intellect in tow - just pre-rehearsed garbage.
The only hope on the panel was the CEO of Siemens, He regretted where we are, but accepted it, said May's deal would work and we should all see the compromise and swing behind it.
It's pretty much where I am.
I just fear that reason escapes our elected representatives just now and they're going to take us all down in flames for want of giving an inch.0 -
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She could have - before a certain somebody went to the judges to prevent it.....Pulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
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If the ERG lack 11 letters I can supply them. COMMON SENSE..So far they have shown none.0
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The absolutely irony of it - I notice Ms Miller has been keeping her head down recently...MarqueeMark said:
She could have - before a certain somebody went to the judges to prevent it.....Pulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
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They had a brief interview of her on the news a couple of days ago.TheKitchenCabinet said:
The absolutely irony of it - I notice Ms Miller has been keeping her head down recently...MarqueeMark said:
She could have - before a certain somebody went to the judges to prevent it.....Pulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
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MarqueeMark said:
She could have - before a certain somebody went to the judges to prevent it.....Pulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
Call the Oxford English Dictionary. We need to order a new word. Stupid is no longer sufficient.Scott_P said:0 -
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Exhibit a) Nadine DorriesPulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.0 -
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Go Nads.Pulpstar said:
Exhibit a) Nadine DorriesPulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.
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I usd to have relations who lived in Mid Beds. I'm glad they've all died or moved away. I'd hate to be associated with anyone who might have voted for this pea-brain.Scott_P said:0 -
Richard Baker has died at 93.0
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williamglenn said:
While i disagree with her brexit position, you have to wilfully misinterpret what she is saying to get to away from her point. The withdrawal agreement keeps us within the power of the EU but we have no democratic input while we are still there.0 -
Well it brightened my day. I needed a really good laugh.OldKingCole said:
I usd to have relations who lived in Mid Beds. I'm glad they've all died or moved away. I'd hate to be associated with anyone who might have voted for this pea-brain.Scott_P said:0 -
Interesting that this was written last February. What a complete waste of valuable time the last year has been
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/jacob-rees-mogg-and-the-shadowy-group-of-tories-shaping-brexit
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If that's true it's very unlikely there will be a vote at all now.rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
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Was it not the newyorker that projected the claims of some sack clothed green nut jobs that Britain was all stocking up on spam?logical_song said:The Brexit Fantasy Goes Down in Tears - New Yorker article
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-brexit-fantasy-goes-down-in-tears?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral
"something we never wanted and repeatedly wanted to fail might fail"0 -
Pulpstar said:
With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.
Well she would have been if she hadnt lost her majority and allowed parliament to make the decision.0 -
Indeed. The real irony is that if May hadn’t had and then screwed up the election we might not have had to pay any attention to this bunch of weird eccentrics at all. They would have been small enough to ignore.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true it's very unlikely there will be a vote at all now.rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
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Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
Because then she wouldn't have had any rebels on her own side?notme said:Pulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.
Well she would have been if she hadnt lost her majority and allowed parliament to make the decision.0 -
May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardlessDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
It largely matched the Survation numbers yesterdayalex. said:
There was something not right about that Sky poll - it was "a representative sample of Sky customers". I would be slightly surprised if you could construct a nationally representative poll from purely Sky customers.HYUFD said:
Currently just 32% back No Deal according to Sky and Survation this week, once the economy crashes so will Brexit and certainly hard Brexitydoethur said:
The laws of politics, sanity and physics have been suspended.HYUFD said:
What an absurd point, No Deal still screws us far more than it screws the EU because it will hit a for bigger proportion if our economyDavid_Evershed said:
But EU exports are far greater than UK exports.HYUFD said:
The UK is 16% of EU exports, the EU is 44% of UK exports.Philip_Thompson said:
Replacing Theresa May would make a lot of sense if you plan on either Brexit with no deal (or more likely a series of mini deals) or Remain since May isn't preparing for or seeking either of those.AlastairMeeks said:Replacing Theresa May would be displacement activity. Whatever her many flaws, it would deflect from the basic choice, which is: go with this deal; Brexit with no deal; or Remain. (“Renegotiating” is just another way of deferring the same choice because no one on the EU side has the time, interest or energy to engage with this, nor should they when Britain is so hopelessly riven - it would simply encourage the next group of impossibilists to hold out for more.)
The choice does not change with the leader. The problem is that the choice has yet to be made by MPs.
And while no one on the EU side has the time, interest or energy to engage with this that is because they think May is done for and will sign whatever deal they give her, which is the case. If they found that suddenly in charge of the UK was someone who was dead seriously preparing for no deal they might suddenly find they have the time, interest and energy afterall.
To seek peace, prepare for war.
The idea the EU will blink because of No Deal is absurd. If anyone blinks it will be us
So 16% of a big number is much the same as 44% of a small number.
No, I'm not bobbing on the ceiling, I'm just finding myself in agreement with Hyufd.0 -
So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
Calmez vous.HYUFD said:
May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardlessDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 -
"So" and "then" in the header should be interchanged.
People beginning statements with "So" need to be corrected.0 -
But by March 31st there is no other choicealex. said:
So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
Yes, we see now just why she needed that large majority.DavidL said:
Indeed. The real irony is that if May hadn’t had and then screwed up the election we might not have had to pay any attention to this bunch of weird eccentrics at all. They would have been small enough to ignore.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true it's very unlikely there will be a vote at all now.rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
0 -
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
0 -
I do love the word wingnut ...rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
0 -
only problem is the wingnut in chief remains Chris Williamson.stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
That'd fit with the "in the 30s" a few days back. Also, I think, with the number of public letters being in the low 20s.rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
0 -
williamglenn said:
I would ignore the numbers for now and look at the narrative. If May can make the story that she is the one who can best handle the crisis she might well do okay and even well. And even if no deal is worse than some of us are expecting it will be bad on day one but will start to improve from there. So there is the makings of a line that yes things are difficult but we are on the case and solving the problems. And remember that the opposition is partly to blame for all this for not coming to our support when it mattered.HYUFD said:
May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardlessDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'll be honest, I'd rather have the job of telling the Labour Party's story. But no deal leading to problems isn't a death sentence for the Tories. It should be. But politics doesn't really do fair play.0 -
You're too polite. I liked Suzanna Moore's observation that Mrs May isn't a lion leading donkeys but a donkey leading reptiles. In fact the whole article is funny and worth reading. "....anti-expert Michael Gove Jack of all trades master of slime..."stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/theresa-may-personifies-uk-lonely-exhausted-power-ebbing-away0 -
So where are we currently? The last I heard is that the Brexit Fab Five in the Cabinet - Gove, Leadsom, Grayling, Mordaunt and Fox - are demanding that Theresa rewrite her deal. So what happens when she says 'knickers'?0
-
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
I would recommend Leavers focus on the political declaration for the future long term relationship.alex. said:
So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
It actually isn't that bad at all and is the basis of a fair deal. The EU have admitted there is room for refining there, so that's where I'd focus my efforts.0 -
“Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.AmpfieldAndy said:
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
Last seen on Blackpool pleasure beachStark_Dawning said:So where are we currently? The last I heard is that the Brexit Fab Five in the Cabinet - Gove, Leadsom, Grayling, Mordaunt and Fox - are demanding that Theresa rewrite her deal. So what happens when she says 'knickers'?
WPC 'Anything you say will be taken down and used in evidence'
Reprobate 'Knickers!'0 -
CR what’s your take on this? Are you with May or Mogg?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, we see now just why she needed that large majority.DavidL said:
Indeed. The real irony is that if May hadn’t had and then screwed up the election we might not have had to pay any attention to this bunch of weird eccentrics at all. They would have been small enough to ignore.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true it's very unlikely there will be a vote at all now.rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
0 -
It would be if Labour was lead by an Obama rather than a Corbyn.Recidivist said:But no deal leading to problems isn't a death sentence for the Tories. It should be. But politics doesn't really do fair play.
0 -
The most ideological Brexiteers are the arch Remainers useful idiots, in my view.Pulpstar said:With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !
The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.0 -
To return to an issue raised yesterday - why was Chris Huhne treated more severely than Gerald Nabarro?0
-
That’s a bit rude to OGH. In any case, Ampfield is in Hampshire, shurely?matt said:
“Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.AmpfieldAndy said:
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
So you think it’s a good deal do you. For what possible reason ?matt said:
“Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.AmpfieldAndy said:
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
Yes, we have a decade more of Brexit discussions to go, and being a semidetached presence could go either way. I reality though our economy, population, culture, history and interests in the world mean that our alignment to Europe will always be very close. Its a pity that we have given up our voice in how things develop, but we will be drawn along in the EU slipstream anyway.Casino_Royale said:
I would recommend Leavers focus on the political declaration for the future long term relationship.alex. said:
So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
It actually isn't that bad at all and is the basis of a fair deal. The EU have admitted there is room for refining there, so that's where I'd focus my efforts.0 -
Only if the deal passes. Whatever happens to May, that seems unlikely.Foxy said:
Yes, we have a decade more of Brexit discussions to go, and being a semidetached presence could go either way. I reality though our economy, population, culture, history and interests in the world mean that our alignment to Europe will always be very close. Its a pity that we have given up our voice in how things develop, but we will be drawn along in the EU slipstream anyway.Casino_Royale said:
I would recommend Leavers focus on the political declaration for the future long term relationship.alex. said:
So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
It actually isn't that bad at all and is the basis of a fair deal. The EU have admitted there is room for refining there, so that's where I'd focus my efforts.0 -
I know it’s from Buzzfeed and all, but that article about Mars bar shortages did say that Gove is concerned from his experience as agriculture secretary about food supplies in the event of a No Deal crash out. If that is true it really should make the Brexit headbangers take a pause for thought.geoffw said:
Calmez vous.HYUFD said:
May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardlessDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
I propose we rename Zeno's paradox to the ERG paradox.rottenborough said:
Seems all the jokes on here about 47.999999 letters were true.Danny565 said:
LMAO, wasn't it already being claimed back in January that only a few more letters were required?rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
They never get there.0 -
Leaving CFP, leaving CAP, getting rid of FoM, continued ability to trade with Europe with no trade barriers on an ongoing basis, without any ongoing payments...AmpfieldAndy said:
So you think it’s a good deal do you. For what possible reason ?matt said:
“Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.AmpfieldAndy said:
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
The European Parliament will probably vote it down.0 -
Doh, not enough coffee misread “Brexitshire” as “Bedfordshire”!rpjs said:
That’s a bit rude to OGH. In any case, Ampfield is in Hampshire, shurely?matt said:
“Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.AmpfieldAndy said:
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
I am wondering though, why current Dover users are tied to that port once it doesn't become a viable option. There are other routes into the country.rpjs said:
I know it’s from Buzzfeed and all, but that article about Mars bar shortages did say that Gove is concerned from his experience as agriculture secretary about food supplies in the event of a No Deal crash out. If that is true it really should make the Brexit headbangers take a pause for thought.geoffw said:
Calmez vous.HYUFD said:
May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardlessDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
Brokenshire? Is he still in the Government?rpjs said:
Doh, not enough coffee misread “Brexitshire” as “Bedfordshire”!rpjs said:
That’s a bit rude to OGH. In any case, Ampfield is in Hampshire, shurely?matt said:
“Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.AmpfieldAndy said:
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?0 -
Nope, it will be 2-3 years. Not a decade.Foxy said:
Yes, we have a decade more of Brexit discussions to go, and being a semidetached presence could go either way. I reality though our economy, population, culture, history and interests in the world mean that our alignment to Europe will always be very close. Its a pity that we have given up our voice in how things develop, but we will be drawn along in the EU slipstream anyway.Casino_Royale said:
I would recommend Leavers focus on the political declaration for the future long term relationship.alex. said:
So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
It actually isn't that bad at all and is the basis of a fair deal. The EU have admitted there is room for refining there, so that's where I'd focus my efforts.
We will have independence in some areas and codependence in others, outside the federal union. I'm comfortable with that.0 -
May, or more accurately Gove.Jonathan said:
CR what’s your take on this? Are you with May or Mogg?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, we see now just why she needed that large majority.DavidL said:
Indeed. The real irony is that if May hadn’t had and then screwed up the election we might not have had to pay any attention to this bunch of weird eccentrics at all. They would have been small enough to ignore.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true it's very unlikely there will be a vote at all now.rottenborough said:Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
0 -
I think you should take note. When normally placid ultra loyalists like HYUFD start getting angry it's time for the 3rd Mrs Corbyn to start measuring the curtainsgeoffw said:
Calmez vous.HYUFD said:
May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardlessDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
Probably costalex. said:
I am wondering though, why current Dover users are tied to that port once it doesn't become a viable option. There are other routes into the country.rpjs said:
I know it’s from Buzzfeed and all, but that article about Mars bar shortages did say that Gove is concerned from his experience as agriculture secretary about food supplies in the event of a No Deal crash out. If that is true it really should make the Brexit headbangers take a pause for thought.geoffw said:
Calmez vous.HYUFD said:
May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardlessDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.HYUFD said:
All alternatives poll worse than MayDecrepitJohnL said:
Indeed but that is the point. The Prime Minister's chance of surviving a vonc depend not just on the Brexit deal but also on how MPs view their prospects if Theresa May leads them into a general election. If I were her, I'd be thinking about a pledge to step down in (say) 2020 in order to remove this factor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are talking in the context of an immediate vnocDecrepitJohnL said:
Is it delusion? Change "another year" to "into the next election" and most MPs will be eyeing their majorities after last time.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another example of ERG delusion.
Nadine Dorries said today that in a vnoc conservative mps would see that if TM won she would be there for another year so 90% (yes 90%) would vote her out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
-
We could have left the CFP andthe CAP by replicating Norway’s deal. We didn’t need the mess May has concocted to do that. As we don’t know what’s going to replace them and we’ve sold out fisheries twice - when we joined and for the transition, if we get a transition - any benefit is theoretical at this stage and May might well sell fisheries out again together trade deal during the transition. Gove has already said farmers will get equivalent grants to the CAP and May isgoung the common external tariff so I struggle to see what benefits we’ll get from actually being outside the CAP in practice.alex. said:
Leaving CFP, leaving CAP, getting rid of FoM, continued ability to trade with Europe with no trade barriers on an ongoing basis, without any ongoing payments...AmpfieldAndy said:
So you think it’s a good deal do you. For what possible reason ?matt said:
“Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.AmpfieldAndy said:
She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.geoffw said:
The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)stjohn said:
A wingnut of ERGs.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
The European Parliament will probably vote it down.
Immigration hasn’t been resolved and might well be raised during the trade talks, if we get that far, as part of what May describes as her mobility framework in Chequers.
As trade hasn’t been discussed neither has paying for trade which EEA members make so we have no certainty that future payments will cease that I can see.0 -
There will be no final settlement. This win run and run and run. Until something worse happens.Casino_Royale said:
Nope, it will be 2-3 years. Not a decade.Foxy said:
Yes, we have a decade more of Brexit discussions to go, and being a semidetached presence could go either way. I reality though our economy, population, culture, history and interests in the world mean that our alignment to Europe will always be very close. Its a pity that we have given up our voice in how things develop, but we will be drawn along in the EU slipstream anyway.Casino_Royale said:
I would recommend Leavers focus on the political declaration for the future long term relationship.alex. said:
So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.Roger said:Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.
Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
It actually isn't that bad at all and is the basis of a fair deal. The EU have admitted there is room for refining there, so that's where I'd focus my efforts.
We will have independence in some areas and codependence in others, outside the federal union. I'm comfortable with that.0
