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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,288

    Sky subscribers are all Tories, aren't they?
    I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    I simply don't agree. You're creating a new article 50 style right, but it is definitely something new - let's call it Article 50A. The consequence of triggering Article 50A is inexorably a hard border in Ireland. So you have definitely created a new Irish border question.
    It’s the same question, framed differently. The difference being in my scenario the withdrawal bill can pass and we get to explore the trade agreement first.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !

    The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,839
    viewcode said:

    I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.

    The sample can still be demographically balanced like any other. It's not obvious why Sky customers should be more inherently biased than people who join panels for other pollsters.
  • Goupillon said:

    If the police investigation into the Leave campaign's financing and overspending results in the people responsible being charged during the next 3 months surely the 2016 referendum's validity will be even more strongly questioned. For this and several other very sound political reasons there has to be a second referendum/"Peoples Vote" and the Government needs to request the EU for at least a 2 month extension to the 29th March exit date as soon as possible to ensure this can happen.

    The EU indicated last night the only grounds to delay A50 were a second referendum or GE

    However, it would not permit any change to renegotiate the deal.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    The CJEU hearing on revocability of A50 is scheduled for 27/11 two days after EUCO will sign off on the deal. If the deal is voted down we may very well get a definitive ruling before a second vote. Who knows what the ECJE will say ? They could say A50 is totally and unilaterally revocabile. Huge win for Remainders and would blow the debate wide open. We could keep the status quo by sending a letter. They might say A50 is completely unrevocable ending any discussion of a second referendum. They could fudge along the lines of current council/comission thinking.

    Who knows ? But the potential impact is why the government has been so desperate to block the referal from a UK Court.

    This week we'll get the Supreme Court 3 Justice panel ( including Lady Hale the President ) decision on letting HMG appeal *despite* the Scottish courts refusing leave to appeal. The government has been refused a hearing and the decision is being made on the papers. Of course if the Supreme Court does stop the Scottish courts referal and thus we get no judgement on revocability it'll be a huge PR coup for the Nationalists.

    My knee-jerk non-lawyer view would be that the common-sense finding would be "revocable by mutual consent between the UK and European Commission"
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Wasn't she publicly trying to oust Theresa May a year ago....
  • "In reality, a no-deal Brexit would be an economic and political calamity worse than the Winter of Discontent in the Seventies, worse than the three-day week and potentially even more damaging than the Great Depression."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    The EU indicated last night the only grounds to delay A50 were a second referendum or GE

    However, it would not permit any change to renegotiate the deal.
    Sounds good. Let’s get on with it then.
  • Genuine question - is it the cover price or the advertising sales that generate most cash? If it's the latter then things might be going according to plan.
    Recidivist, c. 60% of the revenues are circulation and that is slowly increasing. You can do something about circulation (basically, increase the cover price by a small amount where ytou don't drive away customers), advertising less so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Danny565 said:

    Wasn't she publicly trying to oust Theresa May a year ago....
    Looks like she's not prepared to vote for the deal right now either. Whilst most of my ire is reserved for the ERG wing of the Tories....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,839
    Danny565 said:

    Wasn't she publicly trying to oust Theresa May a year ago....
    I don't think so. She urged May to face down the Brexiteers and "sling 'em out".
  • "In reality, a no-deal Brexit would be an economic and political calamity worse than the Winter of Discontent in the Seventies, worse than the three-day week and potentially even more damaging than the Great Depression."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html

    JRM said we'd be a trillion quid better off. He is probably wrong but too much political debate starts with the assumption that the other lot (Brexiteers, Remainers, Jeremy Corbyn) share your analysis and are deliberately screwing the country.
  • viewcode said:

    I don't know. But if it's a representative sample of Sky customers (assuming no differential response) then you can use it to opine about Sky customers but not the voting population (as the two are different) and certainly not voting intention.

    It wasn't a representative sample of Sky customers (to my understanding) I believe it was a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers.

    In the same way that a YouGov poll is not a representative sample of YouGov panel members, it is a nationally representative poll constituted from YouGov panel members.

    There may be something self-selecting from those who sign up to Sky, but there may too be something self-selecting from those who sign up to YouGov.
  • "In reality, a no-deal Brexit would be an economic and political calamity worse than the Winter of Discontent in the Seventies, worse than the three-day week and potentially even more damaging than the Great Depression."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html

    Or in reality it may be much ado about nothing.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    edited November 2018

    Genuine question - is it the cover price or the advertising sales that generate most cash? If it's the latter then things might be going according to plan.
    Paradoxically it used to be the case that most newspapers could be given away for free, the advertising rates were so good. Why charge? To give the product a perception of value to the reader, the more expensive, the better it must be, and the higher the rate card.
  • HYUFD said:

    All alternatives poll worse than May
    Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.
  • Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    It wasn't a representative sample of Sky customers (to my understanding) I believe it was a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers.

    In the same way that a YouGov poll is not a representative sample of YouGov panel members, it is a nationally representative poll constituted from YouGov panel members.

    There may be something self-selecting from those who sign up to Sky, but there may too be something self-selecting from those who sign up to YouGov.
    The only clear barrier to signing up to YouGov is access to the internet. Access to which is mostly universal these days. And they do claim that the history of polling responses allows them to detect should respondents show characteristics deviating from the non-panel population.

    There are other barriers to becoming a Sky customer (most obviously, financial).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Goupillon said:

    If the police investigation into the Leave campaign's financing and overspending results in the people responsible being charged during the next 3 months surely the 2016 referendum's validity will be even more strongly questioned. For this and several other very sound political reasons there has to be a second referendum/"Peoples Vote" and the Government needs to request the EU for at least a 2 month extension to the 29th March exit date as soon as possible to ensure this can happen.

    OchEye said:

    Paradoxically it used to be the case that most newspapers could be given away for free, the advertising rates were so good. Why charge? To give the product a perception of value to the reader, the more expensive, the better it must be, and the higher the rate card.
    So my theory that the Mail might do better by appealing to a more prosperous demographic isn't totally off whack? And being less partisan would probably be attractive to mass market brands. (Just thinking out loud - I don't have any real idea of how the newspaper business works.)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.

    What we need is a Leaver who can see the damage No Deal would cause, that Chequers is worse than staying and reverse the policy.
    Gove?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Good piece from David. I think the final conclusion paragraph sums up what I think is likely to happen, and why TM is pushing on.

    We will do a deal, all far too later than it needed to be, and after much anguish and uncertainty, but as the clock runs down, I do think the EU may blink first, particularly as the Irish will move into full blown panic mode by Christmas if this isn't all nailed down. TM stays for some time yet.

    I can see 29 March being shifted back 6+ months though, and the deal will involve fleshing out the future relationship in such detail that it will obviate the need for the hated backstop with the NI protocol removed from the withdrawal agreement and picked up in the future relationship terms.

    Maybe I'm a fantasist....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,288

    It wasn't a representative sample of Sky customers (to my understanding) I believe it was a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers.

    In the same way that a YouGov poll is not a representative sample of YouGov panel members, it is a nationally representative poll constituted from YouGov panel members.

    There may be something self-selecting from those who sign up to Sky, but there may too be something self-selecting from those who sign up to YouGov.
    Oooh, now that's interesting. It's difficult to construct a nationally representative sample constituted from Sky customers. You can try, but you're going to bang up against small/no numbers at some point.

    Here's a real-life example. A study was done of pregnant women in India, then the study was combined with a similar study of pregnant women in England. A relationship was noted between maternal height and baby weight at birth. However the conclusion could not be carried across to English women, because all the numbers for really short women came from the Indian sample and there were no really short English women in the sample.

    So the Sky sample can be weighted to make it representative, but in cases where subgroups are un/underepresented in the Sky sample, that's going to be a problem.


  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2018

    Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.

    LMAO, wasn't it already being claimed back in January that only a few more letters were required?

    EDIT:
    A no-confidence vote in the Conservative leader is automatically triggered if backbench chief Sir Graham Brady receives 48 letters from his colleagues.

    It is believed that he has already been sent at least 40 - meaning that just eight more letters would force him to call a poll of all Tory MPs.


    -26 January 2018

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5430183/theresa-may-could-face-leadership-challenge-if-just-eight-more-tory-mps-turn-against-her/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2018

    Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.

    No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7761661/no-confidence-vote-letters-theresa-may/
  • Danny565 said:

    LMAO, wasn't it already being claimed back in January that only a few more letters were required?
    Seems all the jokes on here about 47.999999 letters were true.

    They never get there.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...
    But Steve Baker said that the ERG alone had 48 already in with a dozen more to come...?
  • Listening to Any Questions on R4 last night was so depressing.

    The 4 politicians on there exhibited the dire paucity of our political class at the moment. Admittedly, headbangers like Adonis and Redwood set a very low bar, but none of then turned up with any intellect in tow - just pre-rehearsed garbage.

    The only hope on the panel was the CEO of Siemens, He regretted where we are, but accepted it, said May's deal would work and we should all see the compromise and swing behind it.

    It's pretty much where I am.

    I just fear that reason escapes our elected representatives just now and they're going to take us all down in flames for want of giving an inch.
  • No, the Mail is reporting that the Sun is reporting ...
    Yes, thx, sorry, my mistake. I was going to edit my comment, but got distracted.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    edited November 2018
    alex. said:

    But Steve Baker said that the ERG alone had 48 already in with a dozen more to come...?
    It seems JRM's man servant (as Sandbrook now calls Baker) was incorrect.
  • alex. said:

    But Steve Baker said that the ERG alone had 48 already in with a dozen more to come...?
    Steve Baker might be right, or the Sun could be. It was said on this very here pb that Brady was away from Westminster yesterday (and presumably the weekend as well) in which case it is all just educated guesswork.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Listening to Any Questions on R4 last night was so depressing.

    The 4 politicians on there exhibited the dire paucity of our political class at the moment. Admittedly, headbangers like Adonis and Redwood set a very low bar, but none of then turned up with any intellect in tow - just pre-rehearsed garbage.

    The only hope on the panel was the CEO of Siemens, He regretted where we are, but accepted it, said May's deal would work and we should all see the compromise and swing behind it.

    It's pretty much where I am.

    I just fear that reason escapes our elected representatives just now and they're going to take us all down in flames for want of giving an inch.

    +1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    Pulpstar said:

    With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !

    She could have - before a certain somebody went to the judges to prevent it.....
  • If the ERG lack 11 letters I can supply them. COMMON SENSE..So far they have shown none.
  • She could have - before a certain somebody went to the judges to prevent it.....
    The absolutely irony of it - I notice Ms Miller has been keeping her head down recently...
  • The absolutely irony of it - I notice Ms Miller has been keeping her head down recently...
    They had a brief interview of her on the news a couple of days ago.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    She could have - before a certain somebody went to the judges to prevent it.....
    Scott_P said:
    Call the Oxford English Dictionary. We need to order a new word. Stupid is no longer sufficient.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Pulpstar said:

    With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !

    The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.

    Exhibit a) Nadine Dorries
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    .
    Pulpstar said:

    Exhibit a) Nadine Dorries
    Go Nads.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,568
    Scott_P said:
    I usd to have relations who lived in Mid Beds. I'm glad they've all died or moved away. I'd hate to be associated with anyone who might have voted for this pea-brain.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Richard Baker has died at 93.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    While i disagree with her brexit position, you have to wilfully misinterpret what she is saying to get to away from her point. The withdrawal agreement keeps us within the power of the EU but we have no democratic input while we are still there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I usd to have relations who lived in Mid Beds. I'm glad they've all died or moved away. I'd hate to be associated with anyone who might have voted for this pea-brain.
    Well it brightened my day. I needed a really good laugh.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    edited November 2018
    Interesting that this was written last February. What a complete waste of valuable time the last year has been

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/jacob-rees-mogg-and-the-shadowy-group-of-tories-shaping-brexit
  • Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.

    If that's true it's very unlikely there will be a vote at all now.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Was it not the newyorker that projected the claims of some sack clothed green nut jobs that Britain was all stocking up on spam?

    "something we never wanted and repeatedly wanted to fail might fail"
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Pulpstar said:

    With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !

    The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.


    Well she would have been if she hadnt lost her majority and allowed parliament to make the decision.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    If that's true it's very unlikely there will be a vote at all now.
    Indeed. The real irony is that if May hadn’t had and then screwed up the election we might not have had to pay any attention to this bunch of weird eccentrics at all. They would have been small enough to ignore.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    edited November 2018
    Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.

    Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    notme said:


    Well she would have been if she hadnt lost her majority and allowed parliament to make the decision.
    Because then she wouldn't have had any rebels on her own side?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Yes but they've seen May lose seats already. The rest is name recognition and guesswork, and the aggregate un-May beats May.
    May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardless
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    alex. said:

    There was something not right about that Sky poll - it was "a representative sample of Sky customers". I would be slightly surprised if you could construct a nationally representative poll from purely Sky customers.
    It largely matched the Survation numbers yesterday
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2018
    Roger said:

    Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.

    Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?

    So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    HYUFD said:

    May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardless
    Calmez vous.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    "So" and "then" in the header should be interchanged.

    People beginning statements with "So" need to be corrected.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    alex. said:

    So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.
    But by March 31st there is no other choice
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,897
    Roger said:

    Listening to the phone in following Any Questions and the audience reaction Lord Adonis's solution is attracting attention. Another referendum. "Do you favour Mrs May's plan or to Remain". Simple and easy to understand. I suspect this plan has legs and will be difficult to stop.

    Any ideas for a collective noun for the members of the ERG?

    A wingnut of ERGs.
  • DavidL said:

    Indeed. The real irony is that if May hadn’t had and then screwed up the election we might not have had to pay any attention to this bunch of weird eccentrics at all. They would have been small enough to ignore.
    Yes, we see now just why she needed that large majority.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    stjohn said:

    A wingnut of ERGs.
    The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)
  • Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.

    I do love the word wingnut ... :)
  • stjohn said:

    A wingnut of ERGs.
    only problem is the wingnut in chief remains Chris Williamson.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Mail reporting the rebel wingnuts are 11 letters short.

    That'd fit with the "in the 30s" a few days back. Also, I think, with the number of public letters being in the low 20s.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,288
    geoffw said:

    "So" and "then" in the header should be interchanged.

    People beginning statements with "So" need to be corrected.

    So true.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 but in any case if Jesus Christ leads the Tory Party it would make no difference if we get No Deal Brexit and economic Armageddon, Corbyn would become PM regardless
    I would ignore the numbers for now and look at the narrative. If May can make the story that she is the one who can best handle the crisis she might well do okay and even well. And even if no deal is worse than some of us are expecting it will be bad on day one but will start to improve from there. So there is the makings of a line that yes things are difficult but we are on the case and solving the problems. And remember that the opposition is partly to blame for all this for not coming to our support when it mattered.

    I'll be honest, I'd rather have the job of telling the Labour Party's story. But no deal leading to problems isn't a death sentence for the Tories. It should be. But politics doesn't really do fair play.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    edited November 2018
    stjohn said:

    A wingnut of ERGs.
    You're too polite. I liked Suzanna Moore's observation that Mrs May isn't a lion leading donkeys but a donkey leading reptiles. In fact the whole article is funny and worth reading. "....anti-expert Michael Gove Jack of all trades master of slime..."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/theresa-may-personifies-uk-lonely-exhausted-power-ebbing-away
  • So where are we currently? The last I heard is that the Brexit Fab Five in the Cabinet - Gove, Leadsom, Grayling, Mordaunt and Fox - are demanding that Theresa rewrite her deal. So what happens when she says 'knickers'?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    geoffw said:

    The erg has not been a valid unit since 1 January 1978[13] when the EEC ratified a directive of 1971 which implemented the International System (SI)
    She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.
  • alex. said:

    So a referendum giving leavers a choice between a deal they apparently detest and remain. When most of them want no deal or a different deal. Can't see where that might fall down... Not sure even Labour could vote for that given their official policy.
    I would recommend Leavers focus on the political declaration for the future long term relationship.

    It actually isn't that bad at all and is the basis of a fair deal. The EU have admitted there is room for refining there, so that's where I'd focus my efforts.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited November 2018

    She screwed up the election just like she has screwed up everything else she has touched. She’s unfit to be PM and if she wasn’t so keen to appease the EU she might have got a deal that was worth having, rather than a deal she is trying to sell now that is worse than no deal. The problem is not with those MPs who have sent in no confidence letters but with the muppets who haven’t.
    “Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454

    So where are we currently? The last I heard is that the Brexit Fab Five in the Cabinet - Gove, Leadsom, Grayling, Mordaunt and Fox - are demanding that Theresa rewrite her deal. So what happens when she says 'knickers'?

    Last seen on Blackpool pleasure beach

    WPC 'Anything you say will be taken down and used in evidence'

    Reprobate 'Knickers!'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Yes, we see now just why she needed that large majority.
    CR what’s your take on this? Are you with May or Mogg?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    But no deal leading to problems isn't a death sentence for the Tories. It should be. But politics doesn't really do fair play.

    It would be if Labour was lead by an Obama rather than a Corbyn.
  • Pulpstar said:

    With all respect to her Maj, it's a crying shame May isn't president at the moment and able to sign the deal into law like Trump does with one of those executive orders !

    The cohorts of the hard of thinking, the mendacious, and malevolent thickies coalesced against her from all sides is staggering.

    The most ideological Brexiteers are the arch Remainers useful idiots, in my view.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    To return to an issue raised yesterday - why was Chris Huhne treated more severely than Gerald Nabarro?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    matt said:

    “Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.
    That’s a bit rude to OGH. In any case, Ampfield is in Hampshire, shurely?
  • matt said:

    “Appease”. Listen to yourself. Brexitshire really is the home of halfwits.
    So you think it’s a good deal do you. For what possible reason ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,241

    I would recommend Leavers focus on the political declaration for the future long term relationship.

    It actually isn't that bad at all and is the basis of a fair deal. The EU have admitted there is room for refining there, so that's where I'd focus my efforts.
    Yes, we have a decade more of Brexit discussions to go, and being a semidetached presence could go either way. I reality though our economy, population, culture, history and interests in the world mean that our alignment to Europe will always be very close. Its a pity that we have given up our voice in how things develop, but we will be drawn along in the EU slipstream anyway.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    justin124 said:

    To return to an issue raised yesterday - why was Chris Huhne treated more severely than Gerald Nabarro?

    Striped trousers and a waistcoat?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2018
    Roger said:

    Striped trousers and a waistcoat?
    Has the court case involving the current Labour MP been resolved yet?
  • Foxy said:

    Yes, we have a decade more of Brexit discussions to go, and being a semidetached presence could go either way. I reality though our economy, population, culture, history and interests in the world mean that our alignment to Europe will always be very close. Its a pity that we have given up our voice in how things develop, but we will be drawn along in the EU slipstream anyway.
    Only if the deal passes. Whatever happens to May, that seems unlikely.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    geoffw said:

    Calmez vous.
    I know it’s from Buzzfeed and all, but that article about Mars bar shortages did say that Gove is concerned from his experience as agriculture secretary about food supplies in the event of a No Deal crash out. If that is true it really should make the Brexit headbangers take a pause for thought.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356

    Seems all the jokes on here about 47.999999 letters were true.

    They never get there.
    I propose we rename Zeno's paradox to the ERG paradox.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    So you think it’s a good deal do you. For what possible reason ?
    Leaving CFP, leaving CAP, getting rid of FoM, continued ability to trade with Europe with no trade barriers on an ongoing basis, without any ongoing payments...

    The European Parliament will probably vote it down.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rpjs said:

    That’s a bit rude to OGH. In any case, Ampfield is in Hampshire, shurely?
    Doh, not enough coffee misread “Brexitshire” as “Bedfordshire”!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    rpjs said:

    I know it’s from Buzzfeed and all, but that article about Mars bar shortages did say that Gove is concerned from his experience as agriculture secretary about food supplies in the event of a No Deal crash out. If that is true it really should make the Brexit headbangers take a pause for thought.
    I am wondering though, why current Dover users are tied to that port once it doesn't become a viable option. There are other routes into the country.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2018
    rpjs said:

    Doh, not enough coffee misread “Brexitshire” as “Bedfordshire”!
    Brokenshire? Is he still in the Government?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    justin124 said:

    To return to an issue raised yesterday - why was Chris Huhne treated more severely than Gerald Nabarro?

    Did people like Nabarro? That might be one explanation.
  • Foxy said:

    Yes, we have a decade more of Brexit discussions to go, and being a semidetached presence could go either way. I reality though our economy, population, culture, history and interests in the world mean that our alignment to Europe will always be very close. Its a pity that we have given up our voice in how things develop, but we will be drawn along in the EU slipstream anyway.
    Nope, it will be 2-3 years. Not a decade.

    We will have independence in some areas and codependence in others, outside the federal union. I'm comfortable with that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    edited November 2018
    Jonathan said:

    CR what’s your take on this? Are you with May or Mogg?
    May, or more accurately Gove.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    geoffw said:

    Calmez vous.
    I think you should take note. When normally placid ultra loyalists like HYUFD start getting angry it's time for the 3rd Mrs Corbyn to start measuring the curtains
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    alex. said:

    I am wondering though, why current Dover users are tied to that port once it doesn't become a viable option. There are other routes into the country.
    Probably cost
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    alex. said:

    Leaving CFP, leaving CAP, getting rid of FoM, continued ability to trade with Europe with no trade barriers on an ongoing basis, without any ongoing payments...

    The European Parliament will probably vote it down.
    We could have left the CFP andthe CAP by replicating Norway’s deal. We didn’t need the mess May has concocted to do that. As we don’t know what’s going to replace them and we’ve sold out fisheries twice - when we joined and for the transition, if we get a transition - any benefit is theoretical at this stage and May might well sell fisheries out again together trade deal during the transition. Gove has already said farmers will get equivalent grants to the CAP and May isgoung the common external tariff so I struggle to see what benefits we’ll get from actually being outside the CAP in practice.

    Immigration hasn’t been resolved and might well be raised during the trade talks, if we get that far, as part of what May describes as her mobility framework in Chequers.

    As trade hasn’t been discussed neither has paying for trade which EEA members make so we have no certainty that future payments will cease that I can see.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Nope, it will be 2-3 years. Not a decade.

    We will have independence in some areas and codependence in others, outside the federal union. I'm comfortable with that.
    There will be no final settlement. This win run and run and run. Until something worse happens.
This discussion has been closed.