politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%
When transport minister and brother of BoJo, Jo Johnson, quit as transport minister on Friday calling for a second referendum there was an uptick on the Betfair betting market that one would take place before the end of 2019.
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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/12/richard-ojeda-2020-president-983682
I think one chance in 50 would be more like it.
Georgia continuing to banana that Republic, big thread
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1061843483554660352?s=19
My highlight is absentee ballot be marked. Invalid 2 months after the election in 2014. Early voting is popular in America but it seems there is a good job your vote won't be counted.
It'd require a change of government, the tories are divided and in no mood to face the country. A manifesto pledge is sine qua non for a referendum. Whatever their differences, they'll hang together in the face of a Corbyn administration.
What would even be the question ?
It's too decisive, for the country and for the major parties who would fracture.
Could you imagine going through all that bitterness again; it's entirely possible that people would be killed. Another Jo Cox perhaps.
I'd want double figures to even consider the bet. Just, no.
I think I deserve great credit for not mentioning the good Kate Osamor here, incidentally...
Mr. Root, schisms can deepen. Just look what happened to the Church, split between Rome and Constantinople.
The question(s) to ask.
Can a referendum be anything other than a binary option?
Who will be the 'lead organisations' for the campaigns?
How will EU support for it be interpreted? (as in all probability they would have to grant an extension for it)
The last few weeks have consisted of high octane disaster warnings of No Deal. Nobody is seriously putting forward a counter argument. If they do so, will that boost No Deal support?
Can we have a referendum if the details of the deal are not known, or do we have to conclude negotiations first? If so, shouldn't it include details for a future trading relationship?
Could take years! That would please some elements of the country
Newsflash - speaking as somebody who's less than thrilled himself, we lost. Running it again demanding a different answer because you didn't like the first answer is a quick and very expensive and disruptive way of making matters worse. For a start, it would confirm the charges that the EU is anti-democratic.
The problem is that neither side has since made an effort to reach out to the other. The Brexit supporters were clearly shocked by their own success, while the Remain backers including the EU itself are still in denial and anger and refusing to even consider the real reasons why they got kicked in the belly.
As a result, we remain split, and we will continue to be I think unless we suffer far less than expected while leaving.
What the CJEU will do with it remains another uncertainty. The normal requirement is that the domestic Court does its best to give an answer applying such EU precedent as there is. In this case there was no attempt to do that and we still have the responding government saying that the question is completely academic because they have no intention of seeking to withdraw the notice in any event.
I think an election is an even more stupid idea to resolve Brexit. In an election you are voting on a manifesto of measures covering a wide selection of areas of government. It will add zero clarity to the will of the people over Brexit, it may change the party MP numbers a bit.
Starmer is one of very few politicians that will come out of this with his reputation enhanced.
https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/1061772957247258624
Both Labour and the Tories are tying themselves in knots, either by doing Brexit whilst not appearing to be doing it, or not doing Brexit whilst appearing to be doing it.
Illustrated by Jeremy and Diane. Enjoy your breakfast......
A failure to secure a second referendum when one was genuinely on the table if Labour wanted it might make things very difficult for Corbyn - and when his support dissipates (other than the core hard left) it will do so pretty quickly when his fans come to realise he's a charlatan. It could be Clegg-like, and thoroughly well deserved too.
Yes, but it adds complications. If there's a deal the government won't want to risk asking the voters if they want no deal, and if there's no deal it's not an option to leave wth one, so you probably just want to do a binary one anyhow.
> Who will be the 'lead organisations' for the campaigns?
Same as last time
> How will EU support for it be interpreted? (as in all probability they would have to grant an extension for it)
Dunno, whatever
> The last few weeks have consisted of high octane disaster warnings of No Deal. Nobody is seriously putting forward a counter argument. If they do so, will that boost No Deal support?
Possibly. Referendums do weird things, the voters might end up using it to give their opinion about the wombles. Obviously if it's an option the voters might pick it.
> Can we have a referendum if the details of the deal are not known, or do we have to conclude negotiations first? If so, shouldn't it include details for a future trading relationship?
The deal has to be known for parliament to vote on it. Obviously the parts that are decided after leaving can't be on a referendum about leaving, because they're not decided until you've left. If it was trivial to rejoin there might be a case for waiting, but it isn't.
None of the above are blocking problems. The blocking problem is how you make the UK PM want to do this, and having done that how do you make the likely-Tory governing party let her remain PM for the time it takes her to do it.
"We can't stop it. The referendum took place. Article 50 has been triggered. What we can do is recognize the reasons why people voted Leave."
If it ends up No Deal up to 50 Tory MPs could vote for EUref2 though May might also call a general election with a manifesto commitment for her Deal
You're right, she will probably try to do it.
However, in those circumstances I would expect Leave supporters to fight tooth and nail to prevent such a referendum. The Labour leadership position in favour of an election rather than another referendum is important here. Not because it makes an election likely, but because it makes another referendum less likely.
If we get to January and there's no deal and May decides she wants another referendum to bind the electorate to that outcome (or avoid it) I just don't think she has the support and time to pass it. With more support, less time would be required; with more time opposition on the backbenches can be overcome.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46175150
While a second referendum isn't a great idea another general election is likely to be far worse for the Conservatives...
Just bloody quit the cabinet and bring down the government already, I am so sick of these Tory prevarications - May doesn't have the votes, we all know it, so just end it already.
https://news.sky.com/story/labours-sir-keir-starmer-insists-brexit-can-be-stopped-to-contradict-jeremy-corbyn-11552239
What time is the first resignation?
What if the government can't cobble together the votes for the NI backstop and indefinite customs union with adherence to EU Level Playing Field rules plus access to fishing waters and a bunch of other requirements TBD by the EU? Both sides might agree to stop the clock. The UK would still retain the policy of leaving the EU but would not be implementing yet. I would do this by withdrawing the Article 50 application but add a side agreement that sets out the expectations for both sides, which is likely to constrain UK behaviour somewhat. Would the EU and the UK agree to that? To get out the crisis, maybe. In any case I think Article 50 cancellation more likely than a second referendum, because it's got to happen first.
What a shitshow the Tories have produced. I remember when an omnishambles was a sausage roll tax, but this...
- An EFTA Brexit
- A referendum in which we decide to Remain
May fucked up big time not pursuing the first from the outset, and may now be forced down the second path to secure Dominic Grieve’s, Jo Johnson’s, and Chuka’s vote on her “Deal”.
I’m assuming she gives a tinkers about the country of course, which may be an assumption too far.
What Theresa May ought then to do is what Cameron should have done: announce herself above the fray, and set up a royal commission to examine the various options and frame the ballot question.
How to buy off the headbanger Brexiteers? That too may not be as hard as it looks. Call their bluff. Give them seats on the commission. Some Brexiteers predicted Britain will be economically better off out. Jacob Rees-Mogg put it at a trillion pounds. Write into the commission's terms of reference that these options will be examined.
So, will there be a second referendum in 2019? I would not bet against it. In fact, I've just had a token score at 5/2 in Betfair's illiquid market (warning: do not get confused by the "before 2019" market) mainly for bragging rights if it comes off.
Off topic I seem to have stumbled into a niche advocacy group for approval voting.
Starmer obviously wants to stop it, and labour is getting there- Corbyns more leavers talk us a good smokescreen to preserve leave votes.
But the direction of travel is very cleAR. Labour won't back a gov deal no matter what, even the rebels seem to agree that. They probsbly wont get a GE. If there were a ref they wouldn't back the gov deal and don't support no deal .
Therefore labour will move to a position of remain by default, but say they would have backed leave if the Tories had been less deal .
Cynical but effective.
May is now proposing the UK stays in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border, Corbyn permanently
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html
UC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45893616
Badgers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46150548
Is it too cynical to suggest Number 10 is leaking against the government to bury bad news?
I think there are two plausible sequences of events:
1. May agrees something with the EU, MPs wriggle and shout but in the end the internal opposition fades and it squeaks through.
2. May agrees something, MPs reject it, Labour proposes a VONC for an election, MPs reject that too, than May says OK, let's have a referendum on my deal vs No Deal. MPs argue about the terms of the referendum and may add a Remain option (it would need an Act of Parliament so would be subject to amendment) but it happens one way or another. The EU agrees to delay A50 for the time needed to see the result.
The theoretical possibility that May doesn't agree anything with the EU is very unlikely - not in either side's interest not to come up with something.
A strange comparison given that those on UC have different demographics (by design) to those on HB
Edit - fun fact, my autocorrect tried changing 'crap' to 'deal.
Of course any referendum is unpredictable, despite the lazy assumptions of Remain High Command.
I still think the most likely outcome this time year is that we will have Brexited. But I’d put Remaining as high as 40%.
Parliament rejects the deal. What power does the PM have to do what?
Edit: or, constitutionally, does she have to keep going until parliament agrees an option?
I'm not expert on proposing Bills etc. But, maybe we might see a series of votes on various alternatives put by backbenchers or amendments to something else. Or even a Bill launched in the Lords by Adonis.
* If Remain wins then her short-term headache goes away and she puts her headbanger enemies on the wrong side of public opinion.
* If she has a deal and the voters vote for it, that's an endorsement of her policy, victory!
* If there's no deal then she has a nice opportunity to pivot from sunlit uplands and more money for the NHS to patriotic blood, sweat and tears standing strong against Johnny Foreigner.
* If there's a deal but the voters reject it then that's bad for her, but she can avoid that by not making a "reject the deal" option, unless there's no deal to reject.
Obviously getting such a thing through parliament without the Conservative Party stringing her up from a lamppost isn't a trivial problem, but a crisis can be an incumbent's friend, especially when the alternatives don't exactly project "safe pair of hands".
Or perhaps an emergency vote to ask for an A50 extension.
At that stage disillusion will set in. We will not, I guess, see mass demonstrations in George Square, nor tanks on the streets. But the sense of betrayal will hang in the air and those charged with delivering a better deal for their country will not lightly be forgiven. Yesterday General Sir Nick Carter, chief of the general staff, spoke of the armistice as “shedding a light on the past and offering a beacon for the future”. We have seen the light. The beacon, however, looks very dim indeed.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d83fcb2c-e5d9-11e8-a9c0-ffbf0f2a8629
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-second-referendum-spanish-prime-minister-calls-for-vote/amp/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/12/brexit-plan-complete-shambles-uk-boss-of-thyssenkrupp-says
Hulkenberg will likely have stern competition from Ricciardo next year, but that's a very impressive performance against Sainz.
It's undemocratic to keep voting until they win...
It's clear that the 2016 referendum has ended up in a situation that is unworkable, partly because the Brexiteers are such a bunch of clueless incompetent fuckwits. And that's me being polite about the hopeless shitting nationalistic amoeba-brains such as Farage, IDS and Davis.
A second referendum seems, on the face of it, an easy way out. Unfortunately I see little chance of it giving a much clearer result either way than we had in 2016.
Voting is not undemocratic, no matter how many times you do it.