Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%

1235

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    HYUFD said:

    Tory Remainer MPs now joining ERG Brexiteer MPs in sending letters to Sir Graham Brady as a no confidence vote in May looks close

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7715585/tory-remainers-prep-no-confidence-letters-in-the-pm-as-britain-edges-towards-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Oh God not this old chestnut again.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    But the EU won't allow Customs Union without freedom of movement and the one thing I think everyone is agreed about regarding Brexit was that it was a call to reduce immigration....
    Last time I checked Turkey didn't have FoM with the EU.
    Last time I checked, Turkey was not an EU member...
    Well neither will we be post 29th March at the moment.
    Indeed. Neither will we be a member of WTO, nor will we have any valid treaties with large chunks of the world.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    But the EU won't allow Customs Union without freedom of movement and the one thing I think everyone is agreed about regarding Brexit was that it was a call to reduce immigration....
    Last time I checked Turkey didn't have FoM with the EU.
    Last time I checked, Turkey was not an EU member...
    Well neither will we be post 29th March at the moment.
    Indeed. Neither will we be a member of WTO, nor will we have any valid treaties with large chunks of the world.
    Well yes, that's indeed where we will be.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    I am somewhat confident now Mrs May won't get the numbers in parliament for endless no say CU plus Irish Sea customs border plus fish. This will go to crisis at which point there are three possible reactions to the crisis:

    1.Stop the clock . This needs to happen by 29th march and would require EU buy in, which it would probably give on the basis that there's no functioning UK government for it to deal with. A Labour proposal for this would probably garner enough conservative votes to carry. I can't see Theresa May initiating this. It wouldn't necessarily lead to a second referendum.

    2. Agree the WA after all, as the least bad option. Mrs May will be pinning her hopes on this outcome. Labour would probably insist on a new election as the price of its necessary support.

    3. Go over the cliff in the absence of agreeing anything at all with anyone. This would multiply the crisis rather than abating it.

    The government is highly likely to fall under any of these scenarios.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    And (excepting Cameron who was dragged there), these are precisely the people who failed us all by denying us any vote at all on Europe from Maastricht through Nice, and Amsterdam, to Lisbon. Despite the latter having been promised in a manifesto in 2005 by the winning Labour party ( let’s not insult our intelligence by claiming it was a promised vote on the “ Constitution not Lisbon”).

    These are the very cast of characters responsible for a quarter of a century of throwing the governance of this country ever more in a pot with others, and further away from the British people, who elected them and paid their wages. The very actors who could’ve prevented so much of the current division, by asking us if we approved of this course at various junctures along the way ( as the Irish were), at points where looser arrangements/ more opt outs could’ve been agreed, but, instead of which, denied us a vote until corned psephologically, and forced into it.

    And then they didn’t like the result, so now they are apparently magically zealously converted to asking the electorate about Europe? Just wow!



  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Brexiteers really are the biggest shits out there. They were warned pre-referendum that what they were offering was undeliverable, and they chose victory over common sense. We're living with the consequences.

    I disagree. Brexit is completely deliverable. 100%.

    I am just not prepared to tolerate the price.
    How is it deliverable when the campaigns promised incompatible things? The Brexit EEA'ers argued for is very different to the one Farage and his ilk wanted.
    Brexit is deliverable. We just wait to March next year and out we go.

    Whether the various Leave factions get the Brexit that they want is a completely separate issue.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,154
    edited November 2018

    O/T Peter Tatchell is finished.

    How has it taken so long for this stuff to come up as an issue? It isn’t like he is new to the public sphere. Or is it people were well aware, but he was fighting the good fight on gay issues so got a pass and now is public enemy #1 with the woke community due to trans comments?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Brexiteers really are the biggest shits out there. They were warned pre-referendum that what they were offering was undeliverable, and they chose victory over common sense. We're living with the consequences.

    I disagree. Brexit is completely deliverable. 100%.

    I am just not prepared to tolerate the price.
    How is it deliverable when the campaigns promised incompatible things? The Brexit EEA'ers argued for is very different to the one Farage and his ilk wanted.
    Brexit is deliverable. We just wait to March next year and out we go.

    Whether the various Leave factions get the Brexit that they want is a completely separate issue.
    And the important thing is:

    We will leave on March 29th, Parliament will only be voting on a deal or not, the legislation is in place.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    Mr. Jessop, by that logic, if I were offered the choice of a cheese or ham sandwich, went for cheese, and May ineptly stabbed herself in the head I'd be responsible for her death.

    I criticised May's idiotic choices at the time, such as the backstop. The wretchedness of the Government's performance was not inevitable, but caused by endless terrible decisions, prevarication and capitulation by May.

    And if leaving the EU actually were impossible, that brings me back to my earlier point: why? Why did the political class throw to the EU powers that were temporarily entrusted to certain people at Westminster to govern Britain, without any recourse to the electorate?

    (Snip)

    Leaving the EU is not impossible; leaving it without much pain is even possible, if carefully done. But the referendum campaign you were so into made a pain-free leaving impossible.

    Because you put winning over every other consideration.

    May has to try to deal with the promises leave made. She's in an impossible situation. But it's easier for you to blindly blame her than look at your own culpability.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-46151838

    The Rupnik-Franco-Mosley alliance lives on !
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory Remainer MPs now joining ERG Brexiteer MPs in sending letters to Sir Graham Brady as a no confidence vote in May looks close

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7715585/tory-remainers-prep-no-confidence-letters-in-the-pm-as-britain-edges-towards-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Oh God not this old chestnut again.
    Weren't there already supposed to be 44 letters in with Sir Graham? Or do the Conservatives operate in different bases for counting the letters being sent in and counting the letters received?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    Signing up to a perpetual CU with a backstop we cannot exit will be the modern No Taxation Without Representation issue of British politics. If you think the public at large will accept that to keep comfortable middle class people in cheap cleaners and easy access to tuscan holiday villas then you are wrong.

    History shows that democracy is fragile. The default state is for the weak to be ruled roughshod by the powerful. If we cannot change our political masters through the ballot box then they will not be frightened of us and Europe will end up as Yugoslavia.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
  • Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1061969907821228033

    Jezza needs to smarten up ;-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    O/T Peter Tatchell is finished.

    How has it taken so long for this stuff to come up as an issue? It isn’t like he is new to the public sphere. Or is it people were well aware, but he was fighting the good fight on gay issues so got a pass and now is public enemy #1 with the woke community due to trans comments?
    Probably the last.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    when the you see the line up fronting remain you have to ask yourself would you want to leave the country back in the care of the people who created the problem
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    FF43 said:

    I am somewhat confident now Mrs May won't get the numbers in parliament for endless no say CU plus Irish Sea customs border plus fish. This will go to crisis at which point there are three possible reactions to the crisis:

    1.Stop the clock . This needs to happen by 29th march and would require EU buy in, which it would probably give on the basis that there's no functioning UK government for it to deal with. A Labour proposal for this would probably garner enough conservative votes to carry. I can't see Theresa May initiating this. It wouldn't necessarily lead to a second referendum.

    2. Agree the WA after all, as the least bad option. Mrs May will be pinning her hopes on this outcome. Labour would probably insist on a new election as the price of its necessary support.

    3. Go over the cliff in the absence of agreeing anything at all with anyone. This would multiply the crisis rather than abating it.

    The government is highly likely to fall under any of these scenarios.

    Yes, I think number 2 (Blind Brexit) is the most likely, though also the one that ensures endless wrangling over how our new vassal status will work.

    Brexiteers really are crap at anything other than mouthing off.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    O/T Peter Tatchell is finished.

    How has it taken so long for this stuff to come up as an issue? It isn’t like he is new to the public sphere. Or is it people were well aware, but he was fighting the good fight on gay issues so got a pass and now is public enemy #1 with the woke community due to trans comments?
    Since it is one Julie Bindel sticking the boot in, I seriously doubt it is his position on trans issues behind this.
    People have been criticising Tatchell for some time. However, they were virtue signalling snowflakes attacking one of the Giants of free speech and human rights apparently.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    Signing up to a perpetual CU with a backstop we cannot exit will be the modern No Taxation Without Representation issue of British politics. If you think the public at large will accept that to keep comfortable middle class people in cheap cleaners and easy access to tuscan holiday villas then you are wrong.

    History shows that democracy is fragile. The default state is for the weak to be ruled roughshod by the powerful. If we cannot change our political masters through the ballot box then they will not be frightened of us and Europe will end up as Yugoslavia.
    I'm not really looking through the looking glass of Polly Toynbee in Tuscany, more the economy in general.
    And reality. We are where we are, another referendum won't sort anything. There was a narrow majority to leave, so we should leave narrowly. Also this solves the Irish issues.

    Myself and @Anazina are onboard. So that is two of us xD
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    Iraq, ERM the Great Financial crisis

    try looking at history occasionally
  • currystar said:


    The popularity of UKIP opened pandora's box, a referedum had to happen given that UKIP were winning so much, without a referendum UKIP could well be leading in the polls now.

    UKIP as a party were much less successful than the Alliance in opinion polls and election results in UK elections. They did well in EU elections which were proportional lists.
    It's a mistake to think that UKIP did well in EP elections because of PR. They did well in EP elections because most people didn't really care about the outcome and were therefore happy to protest, and UKIP in the EP election was an ideal vehicle in an ideal opportunity to do so about an issue a lot of voters felt strongly about, but not sufficiently strongly to drive GE voting when bigger issues were at stake. UKIP would likely have done just as well had the elections been FPTP (which could have delivered an absolute landslide through England and Wales in 2014).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,154
    edited November 2018
    Sean_F said:

    O/T Peter Tatchell is finished.

    How has it taken so long for this stuff to come up as an issue? It isn’t like he is new to the public sphere. Or is it people were well aware, but he was fighting the good fight on gay issues so got a pass and now is public enemy #1 with the woke community due to trans comments?
    Probably the last.
    The inverse Steve coogan / Hugh grant. Total arseholes, drugs, prozzies, etc, what you now hate Rupert Murdock now, here is your free pass.

    Steve coogan is the worst, he used to regularly phone up the NOTW to get stories about him spun. He only got pissed off when they said actually mate the boss says we are going to run one about you warts and all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    They can when a Remain control-freak PM and a Remain Chancellor have clusterfcked the negotiations.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    edited November 2018
    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    https://twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

  • HYUFD said:

    Tory Remainer MPs now joining ERG Brexiteer MPs in sending letters to Sir Graham Brady as a no confidence vote in May looks close

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7715585/tory-remainers-prep-no-confidence-letters-in-the-pm-as-britain-edges-towards-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    A Tory leadership election now would almost certainly mean no Brexit deal was possible because May wouldn't have the authority to deliver one before the handover, presumably in early January after something like a 6 week election, and the new leader would neither have the time nor the negotiating room to deliver one.

    And in such circumstances, the Tory Party would absolutely own the No Deal consequences, with all that would mean for public support. At the moment, the government can at least point to the hours being put in and the lack of movement from Brussels.
  • eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    They can when a Remain control-freak PM and a Remain Chancellor have clusterfcked the negotiations.
    On Nov 12th we get the "Stab in the Back" excuse. Who would have thought...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,154
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:
    In both pictures, he has the look of somebody who would rather be anywhere else. Like a kid at a school prize giving who has to sit through 3hrs of everybody else but then getting some sort of award.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Scott_P said:
    I don't believe the Kama Sutra has a position on Brexit?
    Maybe not, but it still might be closer to one than the UK's government.


    (Bit of satire there. I'm Ben Elton. Good night.)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    They can when a Remain control-freak PM and a Remain Chancellor have clusterfcked the negotiations.
    Did you vote Labour in 2017? Or did you endorse the Remain control-freak PM?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    welshowl said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    And (excepting Cameron who was dragged there), these are precisely the people who failed us all by denying us any vote at all on Europe from Maastricht through Nice, and Amsterdam, to Lisbon. Despite the latter having been promised in a manifesto in 2005 by the winning Labour party ( let’s not insult our intelligence by claiming it was a promised vote on the “ Constitution not Lisbon”).

    These are the very cast of characters responsible for a quarter of a century of throwing the governance of this country ever more in a pot with others, and further away from the British people, who elected them and paid their wages. The very actors who could’ve prevented so much of the current division, by asking us if we approved of this course at various junctures along the way ( as the Irish were), at points where looser arrangements/ more opt outs could’ve been agreed, but, instead of which, denied us a vote until corned psephologically, and forced into it.

    And then they didn’t like the result, so now they are apparently magically zealously converted to asking the electorate about Europe? Just wow!
    That in a nutshell would be the Leave position in any second referendum. The peole are in an ornery mood. Being told to go away and vote again - but to get the right result this time - by the people who for forty years toiled secretively to lock us into an arrangement that was "too difficult" to unravel, by the Blairs and Mandelsons and Browns and Campbells of this world? What could possiby go wrong......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    Signing up to a perpetual CU with a backstop we cannot exit will be the modern No Taxation Without Representation issue of British politics. If you think the public at large will accept that to keep comfortable middle class people in cheap cleaners and easy access to tuscan holiday villas then you are wrong.

    History shows that democracy is fragile. The default state is for the weak to be ruled roughshod by the powerful. If we cannot change our political masters through the ballot box then they will not be frightened of us and Europe will end up as Yugoslavia.
    I'm not really looking through the looking glass of Polly Toynbee in Tuscany, more the economy in general.
    And reality. We are where we are, another referendum won't sort anything. There was a narrow majority to leave, so we should leave narrowly. Also this solves the Irish issues.

    Myself and @Anazina are onboard. So that is two of us xD
    Faute de Mieux, I agree.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    They can when a Remain control-freak PM and a Remain Chancellor have clusterfcked the negotiations.
    On Nov 12th we get the "Stab in the Back" excuse. Who would have thought...
    An "excuse" can still be the truth.....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    They can when a Remain control-freak PM and a Remain Chancellor have clusterfcked the negotiations.
    If you believe that, you will believe anything. The whole of Brexit was executed on the false premises that (a) the EU would want to offer the UK a bilateral arrangement to the UK with the same benefits as its membership agreement but without the obligations and (b) that the UK doesn't need the EU anyway.

    Brexit wouldn't be fucked up if either of these premises were true,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    They can when a Remain control-freak PM and a Remain Chancellor have clusterfcked the negotiations.
    If you believe that, you will believe anything. The whole of Brexit was executed on the false premises that (a) the EU would want to offer the UK a bilateral arrangement to the UK with the same benefits as its membership agreement but without the obligations and (b) that the UK doesn't need the EU anyway.

    Brexit wouldn't be fucked up if either of these premises were true,
    Putin's little helpers have played a blinder. They deserve the best dachas in Crimea for their retirement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    What makes that absurd is that military ballots will probably favour Rick Scott.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
  • Pulpstar said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-46151838

    The Rupnik-Franco-Mosley alliance lives on !

    I know these people are grim, but I'm tickled by the notion of a budding Eva Braun called Claudia Potatoes.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.
  • HYUFD said:

    Tory Remainer MPs now joining ERG Brexiteer MPs in sending letters to Sir Graham Brady as a no confidence vote in May looks close

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7715585/tory-remainers-prep-no-confidence-letters-in-the-pm-as-britain-edges-towards-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    A Tory leadership election now would almost certainly mean no Brexit deal was possible because May wouldn't have the authority to deliver one before the handover, presumably in early January after something like a 6 week election, and the new leader would neither have the time nor the negotiating room to deliver one.

    And in such circumstances, the Tory Party would absolutely own the No Deal consequences, with all that would mean for public support. At the moment, the government can at least point to the hours being put in and the lack of movement from Brussels.
    I said some time ago that I thought the ERG would save the no confidence letters until May brings back a deal they don't like so that they can try and scupper it and send us into the default no deal Brexit.

    When have they ever cared about the consequences for the Conservative Party?
  • Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    Hmmm...

    Russia, Irresponsible BoJo, Cheating, Irresponsible Farage, Illegal overspend, Russia, Irresponsible JRM, Lies about the NHS, No viable Brexiteer proposals and the fact they all ran away, Russia, Aron Banks and the money, Russia... the switch in demographics and the Remainers being totally non complacent this time...

    Lets face it, its pretty likely Remain would win in a second go....
  • FPT
    HYUFD said:

    Yet again your complete failure to understand monarchy and tradition not free market liberalism is the epitome of conservatism either if neither are socialism
    All those conservatives in America love their monarch of course.

    Don't be a numpty.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.
    quite

  • eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
    Can anyone think of any franchise where the fourth or subsequent film was among the best? often, it can be an absolute shocker, following on from a very good third.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.
    The EU will take the UK back on the same formal terms of membership as we have now. But in political terms we will be much, much weaker. It will take several decades to rebuild the level of political influence that we had in the EU before 2016.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Is he saying the same thing re-ongoing counts in Arizona and California?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.
    On reflection that is right. The only way out of the situation we are in is to win over the hearts and minds of as many leavers as possible.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:
    What’s the change? Or is that stable?
  • Sean_F said:

    What makes that absurd is that military ballots will probably favour Rick Scott.
    It fits into the theme that Trump is a bit lazy when it comes to details.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.
    The EU will take the UK back on the same formal terms of membership as we have now. But in political terms we will be much, much weaker. It will take several decades to rebuild the level of political influence that we had in the EU before 2016.
    we have no political influence in the EU, if we had we wouldnt be leaving





  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,747

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.
    On reflection that is right. The only way out of the situation we are in is to win over the hearts and minds of as many leavers as possible.
    I think Leave campaigners are dreaming if they believe they will be able to channel the anger of the public rather than bear the brunt of it.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.
    What option is there other than Remain or No Deal? May's Houdini act in which she wraps herself up in red lines and then attempts to escape in front of our very eyes doesn't seem to be yielding any other options.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    I've just watched yesterday's GP, and I'm now going to say something incredibly controversial:

    Max Verstappen was to blame for the collision with Ocon.
  • eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
    Can anyone think of any franchise where the fourth or subsequent film was among the best? often, it can be an absolute shocker, following on from a very good third.
    The last Harry Potter has the best IMDB rating. But one person was in charge of the whole arc, and already knew where she wanted to take the story.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Sean_F said:

    What makes that absurd is that military ballots will probably favour Rick Scott.
    It fits into the theme that Trump is a bit lazy when it comes to details.
    sounds like Cameron
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    Meanwhile in Italy it looks like a bank is about to collapse https://www.ilpost.it/2018/11/12/crisi-carige/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,747

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.
    The EU will take the UK back on the same formal terms of membership as we have now. But in political terms we will be much, much weaker. It will take several decades to rebuild the level of political influence that we had in the EU before 2016.
    we* have no political influence in the EU, if we had we wouldnt be leaving
    * Where ‘we’ doesn’t mean the UK, but people who don’t think the UK should be in the EU.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412

    I've just watched yesterday's GP, and I'm now going to say something incredibly controversial:

    Max Verstappen was to blame for the collision with Ocon.

    I suspect you are right - Even when I first saw it yesterday I really don't think Ocon was given enough track to avoid a collusion....
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    Signing up to a perpetual CU with a backstop we cannot exit will be the modern No Taxation Without Representation issue of British politics. If you think the public at large will accept that to keep comfortable middle class people in cheap cleaners and easy access to tuscan holiday villas then you are wrong.

    History shows that democracy is fragile. The default state is for the weak to be ruled roughshod by the powerful. If we cannot change our political masters through the ballot box then they will not be frightened of us and Europe will end up as Yugoslavia.
    I'm not really looking through the looking glass of Polly Toynbee in Tuscany, more the economy in general.
    And reality. We are where we are, another referendum won't sort anything. There was a narrow majority to leave, so we should leave narrowly. Also this solves the Irish issues.

    Myself and @Anazina are onboard. So that is two of us xD
    I know people use the divorce analogy for Brexit. Various scenarios. Hard divorce, friendly divorce, become friends with benefits, stay and I'll change, leave and I'll kill you. You know.

    Norway would be a leave but still pay me your salary option. I believe that people would look and ask what the heck is going on. Even the Norwegian PM has asked why on earth would we leave the EU for those terms.

    There is a common strand across the UK that we do not like being told what to do. I am absolutely convinced that Diane Abbot was right on QT last week to say that people should be careful what they ask for about a second referendum,. If we don't leave fully I believe that we will have a populist movement like Trump that will arise and god help us all.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    notme said:

    Scott_P said:
    What’s the change? Or is that stable?

    I want to hear more from this Don T. Know chap. I think voters are projecting their hopes and dreams on to him. Could he survive the exposure of an election campaign?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018
    If there were another referendum, I'd think seriously about voting to leave this time. This is because the EU are highly unlikely to offer a generous deal to persuade us to reverse the first People's Vote; in fact, the terms are highly likely to be pretty appalling. In any case so much damage has been done to EU-UK relations that I can't see how the UK could be treated as a trustworthy partner by the other EU countries, and the EU's negotiating stance on Brexit has been so appalling and has shown such bad faith that I think it would be hard for us to trust them. Rejoining like some badly-behaved school kid who has played truant and can now expect to be punished for it is deeply unattractive.
  • FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    Iraq, ERM the Great Financial crisis

    try looking at history occasionally

    ERM was Nigel Lawson, followed by Norman Lamont, both arch-Leavers. Iraq was most vociferously opposed by the likes of Ken Clarke and the LDs. IDS accused Blair of being too soft!! The great financial crisis was global.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.
    The EU will take the UK back on the same formal terms of membership as we have now. But in political terms we will be much, much weaker. It will take several decades to rebuild the level of political influence that we had in the EU before 2016.
    we* have no political influence in the EU, if we had we wouldnt be leaving
    * Where ‘we’ doesn’t mean the UK, but people who don’t think the UK should be in the EU.
    no, the we means the UK. If the UK had been influential it would have had a deal with the commission or enough other countries backing it to get movement. Neither happened.

    Therer is a core circle of countries who determine events and the UK isnt one of them
  • Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.

    As your second para makes clear, this is all about what’s best for the Conservative party.

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory Remainer MPs now joining ERG Brexiteer MPs in sending letters to Sir Graham Brady as a no confidence vote in May looks close

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7715585/tory-remainers-prep-no-confidence-letters-in-the-pm-as-britain-edges-towards-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Oh God not this old chestnut again.
    Tiresome, ain't it?

    As I have told PBers several times, the number of letters in Graham Brady Old Lady's top drawer is a mathematical constant – 47.9
  • eek said:

    Meanwhile in Italy it looks like a bank is about to collapse https://www.ilpost.it/2018/11/12/crisi-carige/

    Doesn't that happen every Monday in Italy?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.
    On reflection that is right. The only way out of the situation we are in is to win over the hearts and minds of as many leavers as possible.
    Or those thick stupid racist bigots, as they’ve been referred to until now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Cicero said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    Hmmm...

    Russia, Irresponsible BoJo, Cheating, Irresponsible Farage, Illegal overspend, Russia, Irresponsible JRM, Lies about the NHS, No viable Brexiteer proposals and the fact they all ran away, Russia, Aron Banks and the money, Russia... the switch in demographics and the Remainers being totally non complacent this time...

    Lets face it, its pretty likely Remain would win in a second go....
    I think they might scrape a win, but that would be it.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    Signing up to a perpetual CU with a backstop we cannot exit will be the modern No Taxation Without Representation issue of British politics. If you think the public at large will accept that to keep comfortable middle class people in cheap cleaners and easy access to tuscan holiday villas then you are wrong.

    History shows that democracy is fragile. The default state is for the weak to be ruled roughshod by the powerful. If we cannot change our political masters through the ballot box then they will not be frightened of us and Europe will end up as Yugoslavia.
    I'm not really looking through the looking glass of Polly Toynbee in Tuscany, more the economy in general.
    And reality. We are where we are, another referendum won't sort anything. There was a narrow majority to leave, so we should leave narrowly. Also this solves the Irish issues.

    Myself and @Anazina are onboard. So that is two of us xD
    I know people use the divorce analogy for Brexit. Various scenarios. Hard divorce, friendly divorce, become friends with benefits, stay and I'll change, leave and I'll kill you. You know.

    Norway would be a leave but still pay me your salary option. I believe that people would look and ask what the heck is going on. Even the Norwegian PM has asked why on earth would we leave the EU for those terms.

    There is a common strand across the UK that we do not like being told what to do. I am absolutely convinced that Diane Abbot was right on QT last week to say that people should be careful what they ask for about a second referendum,. If we don't leave fully I believe that we will have a populist movement like Trump that will arise and god help us all.
    Norway contributions for sm membership are utterly trivial and scale up to a couple of billion for us.

  • eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
    Can anyone think of any franchise where the fourth or subsequent film was among the best? often, it can be an absolute shocker, following on from a very good third.
    There is nowhere to go after Mr. Pricklepants.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    Iraq, ERM the Great Financial crisis

    try looking at history occasionally

    ERM was Nigel Lawson, followed by Norman Lamont, both arch-Leavers. Iraq was most vociferously opposed by the likes of Ken Clarke and the LDs. IDS accused Blair of being too soft!! The great financial crisis was global.

    NL started ERM Major continued it and was left holding the hot potato, Blair led us in to the Iraq fiasco and caused a caesura in the peoples trust in government, Brown fked up the economy by making the UK one of the worst exposed to a downturn,
  • Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.

    How has the political mould been broken? At the next GE the choice will still be Labour or Tory. We had record employment before the referendum. Wages are rising slightly, inlation is making that pretty meaningless. As for foreign investment ...

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,297
    edited November 2018

    O/T Peter Tatchell is finished.

    How has it taken so long for this stuff to come up as an issue? It isn’t like he is new to the public sphere. Or is it people were well aware, but he was fighting the good fight on gay issues so got a pass and now is public enemy #1 with the woke community due to trans comments?
    I'm not honestly sure what the "woke" community think (do they think?) about Trans Self-Identification, or whether it is Tatchell or Bindel that qualifies as a member - bald men and combs come to mind.

    If Bindel and Janice Turner are resorting to these tactics, then I wonder if they think they have lost the Trans-Self-Identification debate. Bindel has her own skeletons, and Turner is off on a barnstorm - accusing Tatchell explicitly of being a "p*********e apologist".

    The Tatchell stuff quoted on here looks controversial rather than problematic to me. There may be other, though.
  • notme said:

    Scott_P said:
    What’s the change? Or is that stable?
    May 36 (n/c)
    Corbyn 22 (-2)
    DK 38 (n/c)
    No answer 3 (n/c)

    Note - rounding means the most recent poll adds to 99; the previous one added to 101.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    Hmmm...

    Russia, Irresponsible BoJo, Cheating, Irresponsible Farage, Illegal overspend, Russia, Irresponsible JRM, Lies about the NHS, No viable Brexiteer proposals and the fact they all ran away, Russia, Aron Banks and the money, Russia... the switch in demographics and the Remainers being totally non complacent this time...

    Lets face it, its pretty likely Remain would win in a second go....
    I think they might scrape a win, but that would be it.
    Priti Patel for one would be out blaming the EU for all delays and difficulties and declaring that Britain has ‘ a bright future’ outside the EU.
    And she won’t be alone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Yet again your complete failure to understand monarchy and tradition not free market liberalism is the epitome of conservatism either if neither are socialism
    All those conservatives in America love their monarch of course....
    Why do you think they are so fond of Trump ?

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    If there were another referendum, I'd think seriously about voting to leave this time. This is because the EU are highly unlikely to offer a generous deal to persuade us to reverse the first People's Vote; in fact, the terms are highly likely to be pretty appalling. In any case so much damage has been done to EU-UK relations that I can't see how the UK could be treated as a trustworthy partner by the other EU countries, and the EU's negotiating stance on Brexit has been so appalling and has shown such bad faith that I think it would be hard for us to trust them. Rejoining like some badly-behaved school kid who has played truant and can now expect to be punished for it is deeply unattractive.

    So you think a no-deal would be less damaging for the UK? As its fairly clear there is no chance of reaching a deal in the short term and even if May reaches one with the EU it isn't getting past parliament.
  • If there were another referendum, I'd think seriously about voting to leave this time. This is because the EU are highly unlikely to offer a generous deal to persuade us to reverse the first People's Vote; in fact, the terms are highly likely to be pretty appalling. In any case so much damage has been done to EU-UK relations that I can't see how the UK could be treated as a trustworthy partner by the other EU countries, and the EU's negotiating stance on Brexit has been so appalling and has shown such bad faith that I think it would be hard for us to trust them. Rejoining like some badly-behaved school kid who has played truant and can now expect to be punished for it is deeply unattractive.

    At the moment I think I would abstain if there were a second referendum. All outcomes would be disastrous.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why can't we sign up to a perpetual customs union ?

    Call it Chequers 2 (Turkey ++) or some such. I know it upsets the hardcore brexiteers here - but if NI has to be in a CU permanently to avoid a hard border, and there is no Irish sea border (Which the Tories/DUP really could NEVER agree to) then it leaves a UK wide CU as the only possible outcome.

    The question on the ballot was about exiting the EU and the major sentiment behind the question was about immigration controls.
    A customs union (& single market "access" with the FoM control) - Corbyn's position satisfies this.

    tldr - It is an Irish sea customs border we should never sign up to, not a customs union.

    Signing up to a perpetual CU with a backstop we cannot exit will be the modern No Taxation Without Representation issue of British politics. If you think the public at large will accept that to keep comfortable middle class people in cheap cleaners and easy access to tuscan holiday villas then you are wrong.

    History shows that democracy is fragile. The default state is for the weak to be ruled roughshod by the powerful. If we cannot change our political masters through the ballot box then they will not be frightened of us and Europe will end up as Yugoslavia.
    I'm not really looking through the looking glass of Polly Toynbee in Tuscany, more the economy in general.
    And reality. We are where we are, another referendum won't sort anything. There was a narrow majority to leave, so we should leave narrowly. Also this solves the Irish issues.

    Myself and @Anazina are onboard. So that is two of us xD
    I know people use the divorce analogy for Brexit. Various scenarios. Hard divorce, friendly divorce, become friends with benefits, stay and I'll change, leave and I'll kill you. You know.

    Norway would be a leave but still pay me your salary option. I believe that people would look and ask what the heck is going on. Even the Norwegian PM has asked why on earth would we leave the EU for those terms.

    There is a common strand across the UK that we do not like being told what to do. I am absolutely convinced that Diane Abbot was right on QT last week to say that people should be careful what they ask for about a second referendum,. If we don't leave fully I believe that we will have a populist movement like Trump that will arise and god help us all.
    You mean a nastier, more objectionable Farage?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
    Can anyone think of any franchise where the fourth or subsequent film was among the best? often, it can be an absolute shocker, following on from a very good third.
    There is nowhere to go after Mr. Pricklepants.
    A maxim we can all live by



  • Nigelb said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Yet again your complete failure to understand monarchy and tradition not free market liberalism is the epitome of conservatism either if neither are socialism
    All those conservatives in America love their monarch of course....
    Why do you think they are so fond of Trump ?

    As my mate Rob says, 'Trump seems a bit of a Queen, he'd fit right in the village, or not'
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited November 2018

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.

    How has the political mould been broken? At the next GE the choice will still be Labour or Tory. We had record employment before the referendum. Wages are rising slightly, inlation is making that pretty meaningless. As for foreign investment ...

    the consensus of the Third Way where Labour and the Tories have had the same policies for 20 odd years is gone. We are dealing with parties being run by their extreme wings.

    The centre has to find a new way to attract people.

    The record on employment is now even higher, wages stagnated for 10 years or did you forget, and FDI continues.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,747

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.
    The EU will take the UK back on the same formal terms of membership as we have now. But in political terms we will be much, much weaker. It will take several decades to rebuild the level of political influence that we had in the EU before 2016.
    we* have no political influence in the EU, if we had we wouldnt be leaving
    * Where ‘we’ doesn’t mean the UK, but people who don’t think the UK should be in the EU.
    no, the we means the UK. If the UK had been influential it would have had a deal with the commission or enough other countries backing it to get movement. Neither happened.

    Therer is a core circle of countries who determine events and the UK isnt one of them
    What movement do you think the UK would have got, given that the UK only had a majority government seeking anything like that for a matter of months before calling a referendum about leaving the EU?
  • HYUFD said:

    Tory Remainer MPs now joining ERG Brexiteer MPs in sending letters to Sir Graham Brady as a no confidence vote in May looks close

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7715585/tory-remainers-prep-no-confidence-letters-in-the-pm-as-britain-edges-towards-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    A Tory leadership election now would almost certainly mean no Brexit deal was possible because May wouldn't have the authority to deliver one before the handover, presumably in early January after something like a 6 week election, and the new leader would neither have the time nor the negotiating room to deliver one.

    And in such circumstances, the Tory Party would absolutely own the No Deal consequences, with all that would mean for public support. At the moment, the government can at least point to the hours being put in and the lack of movement from Brussels.
    I said some time ago that I thought the ERG would save the no confidence letters until May brings back a deal they don't like so that they can try and scupper it and send us into the default no deal Brexit.

    When have they ever cared about the consequences for the Conservative Party?
    Surely this keeping cropping up because Brady has said that when the number is reached he then calls all those who have sent in letters to see if they wish to rescind their decision. This gives the power to each one of the no confidence signatories to keep May dangling by the finest of threads.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited November 2018

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    how did Leave win then?
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now pretends that there will be any Immediate or obvious benefit from Brexit. Even JRM has said it will be 50 years before benefits become clear. I expect a second referendum to produce a much larger remain majority than the 4% achieved by Leave in 2016.
    Why? The polls don't give any evidence to suggest that, and that's before Leave ramp up the rhetoric about 'which part of No did the elite not get?', 'the people vs the powerful', or 'Brussels showing exactly why we need to leave'.

    There is a very real risk that if offered Remain or No Deal, the people would vote for No Deal having been lulled into a crying wolf sense of security by previous Project Fear claims. Even if Remain won, it would likely be a weak mandate and one which consolidated an angry, bitter and revengeful 30% of the electorate under some kind to Leave-and-mean-it party, while destroying the centre-right as effectively as Corbynites have destroyed the centre-left.
    On reflection that is right. The only way out of the situation we are in is to win over the hearts and minds of as many leavers as possible.
    I think Leave campaigners are dreaming if they believe they will be able to channel the anger of the public rather than bear the brunt of it.


    I think it would be a close call either way. Under the barrage of negativity for a few weeks the leave share in polls has remained unbelievably robust. During that period there has been very little attempt (that I have seen / heard / read) by Leave agencies to bolster the perception of Leave. Bojo has had more leave column inches by a broadsheet or two. In a referendum they get some traction for ideas, if they find someone competent and charismatic to express them.

    The arguments may stack up for Remain, but that isn't automatically translated to votes. The predictions for leave may be cataclysmic, but as yet these are not outcomes that voters have experienced.

    Voters are fickle organisms, and not known to be slaves to logic, argument, hectoring, herding or bullying.
    Oops Blockquote armageddon, sorry
  • If there were another referendum, I'd think seriously about voting to leave this time. This is because the EU are highly unlikely to offer a generous deal to persuade us to reverse the first People's Vote; in fact, the terms are highly likely to be pretty appalling. In any case so much damage has been done to EU-UK relations that I can't see how the UK could be treated as a trustworthy partner by the other EU countries, and the EU's negotiating stance on Brexit has been so appalling and has shown such bad faith that I think it would be hard for us to trust them. Rejoining like some badly-behaved school kid who has played truant and can now expect to be punished for it is deeply unattractive.

    At the moment I think I would abstain if there were a second referendum. All outcomes would be disastrous.
    Ditto, the only way this is resolved is when we find out if Brexit is a success or failure.

    We'll know in about a decade.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301

    eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
    Can anyone think of any franchise where the fourth or subsequent film was among the best? often, it can be an absolute shocker, following on from a very good third.
    The X-Men franchise? I thought first class and days of future past were certainly among the best. IMDB agrees.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
    Can anyone think of any franchise where the fourth or subsequent film was among the best? often, it can be an absolute shocker, following on from a very good third.
    Mission Impossible 4 (Ghost Protocol) was very good, and generally the second trio of those were better than the initial three (though I think the first stands out from those).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody now in 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mou to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.
    The EU will take the UK back on the same forma 2016.
    we* have no political influence in the EU, if we had we wouldnt be leaving
    * Where ‘we’ doesn’t mean the UK, but people who don’t think the UK should be in the EU.
    no, the we means the UK. If ths and the UK isnt one of them
    What movement do you think the UK would have got, given that the UK only had a majority government seeking anything like that for a matter of months before calling a referendum about leaving the EU?
    I dont really care, what we should have done is simply ignore the commission and do what suited us much like France and Germany do.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018
    JonathanD said:

    So you think a no-deal would be less damaging for the UK? As its fairly clear there is no chance of reaching a deal in the short term and even if May reaches one with the EU it isn't getting past parliament.

    As Alastair says, starting from here there are no good options. The least bad one is as you say at significant risk of being torpedoed in parliament (even assuming we get that far). We'd be in a new situation if that failed, but I'd be guided by the maxim that you should never give in to blackmail.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Labour PM Gordon Brown has just said he believes a second EU referendum 'will happen' as he becomes the latest big name to back a 'People's Vote' in a speech in London

    typical of the vacuous prick

    he wouldnt hold one referendum when he was PM now he wants somebody else to give two
    Indeed but 3/4 living ex PMs Major, Brown and Blair know back a ' People's Vote.'

    Just needs Dave for the full set (we know Osborne backs one)
    yes all the PMs who fked up and created the conditions for Brexit dont have the balls to say sorry we got it wrong
    I don't think Brexiteers can lecture people on fucking things up. None of those three have done anything quite as clusterfucked.
    Iraq, ERM the Great Financial crisis

    try looking at history occasionally

    ERM was Nigel Lawson, followed by Norman Lamont, both arch-Leavers. Iraq was most vociferously opposed by the likes of Ken Clarke and the LDs. IDS accused Blair of being too soft!! The great financial crisis was global.

    NL started ERM Major continued it and was left holding the hot potato, Blair led us in to the Iraq fiasco and caused a caesura in the peoples trust in government, Brown fked up the economy by making the UK one of the worst exposed to a downturn,
    The ERM was an economic disaster, Iraq was a political disaster and 2008 was a financial disaster. Brexit is an economic, political and financial disaster and threatens the integrity of the UK and its influence in world affairs to boot. There has been no similar circumstances in the U.K., or any western country, since 1945. The closest comparison is perhaps the Algerian crisis in France in the late 1950s.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    eek said:

    I was going to say that this is offtopic and apologise but I actually don't think it is.

    twitter.com/toystory/status/1061966850131582976 (wait to the end although the spoon may be a clue)

    Toy story 3 should have been the end!!!!! All other opinions are wrong.
    Can anyone think of any franchise where the fourth or subsequent film was among the best? often, it can be an absolute shocker, following on from a very good third.
    Fast and Furious, best to worst:

    6,5,7,3,1,4,8,2
  • Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    currystar said:

    The notion that our Bucanneering Leavers had any coherent, workable plan to leave was tested to death during the referendum. It was absolutely clear then that they didn’t. Of course now we know some of them didn’t even realise Britain is an island close to France, so in retrospect it’s less surprising than it once was.

    how did Leave win then?
    Because people wanted to stick it to the man and this was their opportunity to do so.

    They certainly didn't vote Leave on account of Droite de Suite.
    And how do you think they will vote next time, once it is framed as "Who governs Britain - the voters or the MPs?"
    I am not at all sure that Remain would win if there were a second referendum.
    I think Remain probably would. The mood has changed.

    But if we are going full on hostile no deal Brexit seasoned by protectionism, then voters should at least agree to it.

    Nobody 2016.
    the immdeiate benefit is the UKs political mould has been broken. Remain is simply a rearguard action from people who wish to turn back the clock.

    But the world has moved on and even the EU we voted to leave in 2016 isnt on offer

    As for benefits look at the numkbers, wages rising, record employment, foreign investment continues etc etc.

    How has the political mould been broken? At the next GE the choice will still be Labour or Tory. We had record employment before the referendum. Wages are rising slightly, inlation is making that pretty meaningless. As for foreign investment ...

    the consensus of the Third Way where Labour and the Tories have had the same policies for 20 odd years is gone. We are dealing with parties being run by their extreme wings.

    The centre has to find a new way to attract people.

    The record on employment is now even higher, wages stagnated for 10 years or did you forget, and FDI continues.

    I am not sure extremism is a Brexit benefit, so we'll have to disagree on that one. Yes, it is true that FDI has not totally dried up and that the precipitous decline in business investment has not fed through to job losses yet.

This discussion has been closed.