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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The story of the night on the betting markets
I love these charts from Betdata.io showing the dynamic movement on the Betfair exchange elections markets.
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[edit - or not, as it turns out. But I still reckon Trump should now be comfortably odds-on for re-election]
That alone is enough to win in 2020.
If they can't cope with early results then they should review their models.
It is like the GB exit poll being solely in Liverpool.
Shame it scared me off the rest of the markets as reality matched my betting position before I got scared off and cashed out.
Mr. Alistair, if it makes you feel better, I made the opposite mistake at our last election. I held onto a Con 50-70 seat majority instead of hedging at about 2.5. It's very easy to see mistakes with hindsight, alas.
Dem 51.0%
GOP 47.3%
Dem lead: 3.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
"'Gammon' is added to Collins Dictionary as word of the year "
https://tinyurl.com/y96m4sly
Obviously the distributional effects of that vote are hurting the Dems more and more, but Trump's was a narrow win in the first place.
Also nobody likes ted Cruz, not sure even ted Cruz likes ted Cruz.
OTOH, instead of a late night and a squeaky bum, you could have followed my advice from Saturday, backed CROSS COUNTER to win the Melbourne Cup at 10/1 and had a decent night's sleep and a decent profit.
Oh well...
Evans has not won yet. I suspect he will have to prove negligence by his previous lawyers to win damages against them.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrX0mJdVsAEPJLY.jpg:large
"Two members of the Labour Party in Peterborough have resigned, citing the party's "bullying and incompetence" in dealing with anti-Semitism.
Richard Ferris and Matthew Mahabadi had earlier criticised the selection of a local candidate who allegedly suggested the Holocaust was a hoax.
In a joint statement they said blowing the whistle in March had exposed them to "alienation and ignorance".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46109551
Labour moderates really do need to drain the swamp their party has become.
CNN was cautiously optimistic about the House for the Dems, even Rick Santorum.
What was not was 538, whose movements had an instant effect on the markets without as many people as you might think wondering if 538 really did have results the rest of us didn't.
For me there was a moment VI-2 and VI-7 moved towards the blue column that I jumped on the remaining odds at 1.4, not huge sums, but pretty damn close to safe money
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/crime/brother-of-peterborough-mp-fiona-onasanya-admits-perverting-course-of-justice-1-8693598
How many people are where their grandparents were?
The standards of professional negligence are well known and something all solicitors are insured against
Though I will say I think the Democrats need to pick a white man in 2020. Might not be pretty, but black candidates and female candidates did seem to underperform generally, not to mention how effectively the Republicans demonised Nancy Pelosi.
I think she might be the right model candidate to take on Trump in 2020.
She's 50/1 with Ladbrokes right now.
But as someone else said (sort of), if he’d kept it in his trousers until he got home none of this would have happened.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1060136565505249281
To take you on a legal journey for a moment, there is no doubt that solicitors owe their clients a duty of care which means providing them with a reasonable standard of advice judged against what a person might reasonably expect of a qualified solicitor. Equally, a criminal solicitor will know that the wrong advice could (could) lead to their client being wrongly jailed.
So the remaining questions are two-fold: what advice did Brabners give Evans, what actions did they take on his behalf, and in what respects did that differ to what a reasonable solicitor would have done? Only a court can decide that.
I'm also going off the DIRE ratings that Nancy Pelosi had in all the exit polls, and the (largely anecdotal) signs that she swung some votes to the Republicans. Given she is pretty middle-of-the-road in terms of political positions (like Clinton was), surely there must be something else at work there.
- He needs to stand to protect his interests;
- He believes no-one could do a better job;
- He believes he can win;
- He probably won't be impeached and certainly won't be convicted if he is;
- He probably won't be challenged in the primaries and certainly won't be defeated there.
Vettel 46th.
My results is down a point on the night but up a point if the Blues win Arizona where I understand the count has been suspended it is so close.
No damage done.
The Blue Wave was indeed not so much a tsunami but more a big wee-wee.
My overall impression of US politics is just how corrupt it is,and how big money de-legitimises democracy.
So they will sit on their hands
He's had 4/8 recent race DNFs, and 8/19 season long. Alonso's odds are just 2.75, and that's with one fewer total DNF and the last couple being down to misfortune (accident caused by another, and debris) rather than reliability letting him down.