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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The story of the night on the betting markets

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  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Danny565 said:

    EDIT: Actually, they seem to have cheekily changed their exit poll data after the results came in, because their initial exit polls last night inaccurately put the Democrats ahead in Missouri, and a dead heat in Indiana. They did tip Texas to go to Cruz all along, though.

    Yeah, they said they'd be updating the exit polls with more data as it arrived.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    The french have the best exit poll with their specially selected 'sampling' of the vote. Mega accurate compared to elsewhere.

    I'd rank our exit poll methods above the planks though, Israel/Bibi probably still the most misleading exit poll ever though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1060032186819272709?s=21

    Floridian felons is the new Mondeo man....

    Ex felons.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    The demographic takeaways of this election are that the rustiest parts of the rust belt are staying Republican but the parts nearest the Eastern seaboard and Chicago are going Democrat. Could be useful for the Democrats in the general election, given Trump narrowly won these states last time. Democrats are making slow but significant progress in the South. These states are staying Republican for now but are getting very competitive.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    Mr. B, it seems odd that spread betting on F1 points appears to no longer be an option.

    The year I was going to 'shadow' it (not betting but paying close attention to get my eye in for the next year) they stopped doing it, and instead had a rather tedious ranking system (ie X points for 1st, Y for 2nd etc).

    Meanwhile, Bottas claims to have worked out the secret of Hamilton's success.... he's faster round corners:
    https://www.racefans.net/2018/11/06/key-to-hamiltons-speed-is-no-mystery-bottas/

    Not sure that massive insight is going to help him much...
  • RobD said:
    Others reporting this draft does not include NI stuff on backstopped backstops etc.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Pulpstar said:

    The french have the best exit poll with their specially selected 'sampling' of the vote. Mega accurate compared to elsewhere.

    I'd rank our exit poll methods above the planks though, Israel/Bibi probably still the most misleading exit poll ever though.

    John Curtice's exit poll is superb. He tells us what the result is before any constituencies have declared.
  • Mr. Herdson, supposing Trump wants to stand again, what are the chances of the Republicans having a rival stand for their nomination?

    Who knows? Running against Trump for the nomination would be wholly futile in terms of any chance of winning - Trump has the base sown up. The only value would be to fly a flag for the future, either for the individual or for a campaigning stance (style or policies) - though I wouldn't have thought that getting hammered by Trump in pretty much every state is a great way of going about it.

    I do think that there's a market for a candidate touting "a better way is possible" or something like that, and refusing to be dragged into the gutter, but he'll lose and if Trump then wins the general election, the reply writes itself.

    I don't really see the point of someone going to all that effort and expense given the risks and sacrifices involved but it only takes one person to do it so it'd be foolish to say 'never'.
    What Senator Romney says and does will be interesting.
  • Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The french have the best exit poll with their specially selected 'sampling' of the vote. Mega accurate compared to elsewhere.

    I'd rank our exit poll methods above the planks though, Israel/Bibi probably still the most misleading exit poll ever though.

    John Curtice's exit poll is superb. He tells us what the result is before any constituencies have declared.
    That is it is a terrible night for the tories?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The french have the best exit poll with their specially selected 'sampling' of the vote. Mega accurate compared to elsewhere.

    I'd rank our exit poll methods above the planks though, Israel/Bibi probably still the most misleading exit poll ever though.

    John Curtice's exit poll is superb. He tells us what the result is before any constituencies have declared.
    It'd be even better if he could use the sampling technique the french do rather than duplicated ballots !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:
    Others reporting this draft does not include NI stuff on backstopped backstops etc.
    False alarm folks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The french have the best exit poll with their specially selected 'sampling' of the vote. Mega accurate compared to elsewhere.

    I'd rank our exit poll methods above the planks though, Israel/Bibi probably still the most misleading exit poll ever though.

    John Curtice's exit poll is superb. He tells us what the result is before any constituencies have declared.
    Some say the mad professor has invented a time machine.....
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Others reporting this draft does not include NI stuff on backstopped backstops etc.
    False alarm folks.
    Popcorn back to defcon 4.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Others reporting this draft does not include NI stuff on backstopped backstops etc.
    False alarm folks.
    Maybe journalists don't have a clue what they're tweeting about?
  • Mr. B, former Floridian felons felicitous for flinging florid fellow from favour?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Others reporting this draft does not include NI stuff on backstopped backstops etc.
    False alarm folks.
    Maybe journalists don't have a clue what they're tweeting about?
    In general, or specifically about this story?

    *innocent face*
  • Mr. B, hmm. That's some 'insight'.

    Apparently, I could make more money betting if my prophetic powers were greater.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    edited November 2018
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Others reporting this draft does not include NI stuff on backstopped backstops etc.
    False alarm folks.
    Maybe journalists don't have a clue what they're tweeting about?
    In general, or specifically about this story?

    *innocent face*
    Both.

    Tweets seem to be based upon things they hear second and third hand from people who have their own agendas to pursue.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 years! As for Khan's rep, people know that the swingeing cuts to the Met visited on our great city by the provincial monkeys in Westminster are somewhat to blame!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The french have the best exit poll with their specially selected 'sampling' of the vote. Mega accurate compared to elsewhere.

    I'd rank our exit poll methods above the planks though, Israel/Bibi probably still the most misleading exit poll ever though.

    John Curtice's exit poll is superb. He tells us what the result is before any constituencies have declared.
    That is it is a terrible night for the tories?
    I think you are confusing Curtice with the late, great Professor Tony King
  • Let's hope we don't have another occurrence of the Cabinet 'signing it off' only for Mr Barnier to say he's not going to accept any of it.
  • Scott_P said:
    The net result is that the Speaker, who denies bullying, has made an order to hide information about the behaviour of his close personal friend, Keith Vaz, a man who also denies bullying - supposedly to protect MPs' freedom of speech.
    And then he has gone out of his way to use a personal veto to make sure no-one could even consider reviewing that questionable decision.

    Wrong’uns...
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
  • Let's hope we don't have another occurrence of the Cabinet 'signing it off' only for Mr Barnier to say he's not going to accept any of it.
    That of course is always a risk, though as it seems that this draft doesn't include the N Ireland provisions, and as comments have already been made that the deal was "95% done", chances are that Barnier has already agreed pretty much all of it.

    My initial instinct was to say what's the point of reviewing the agreement without the Irish border solution, but actually, having the cabinet concentrate on the rest of it, without the most contentious issue, is quite a useful thing to do - providing that there'll be another meeting once the Irish bits are added in.
  • Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 years! As for Khan's rep, people know that the swingeing cuts to the Met visited on our great city by the provincial monkeys in Westminster are somewhat to blame!
    Perhaps if Cressida Dick walked the walk rather than just talked the talk in terms of putting violent crime first it would help. Only days after saying that she'd withdraw officers from following up misogyny complaints and the like, she has a dozen officers raiding a house because someone had a silly bonfire.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    The lead is 0.4% - equivalent to circa 200 votes in a UK seat. Quite heavy odds against probably , but it has happened here in general election counts. At Peterborough in 1966 Labour led by 162 on the first two counts but after six or seven recounts the Tories held on by 3 votes!
    At the Southampton Test count in 1964 the Labour candidate insisted on a bundle recount despite being circa 1600 behind on the initial count. He resisted attempts to talk him out of it , and in the ensuing recount several hundred Labour votes were found to have been placed in the Tory pile. A full recount was then ordered.The Tories eventually held on by circa 400.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    You mean @SeanT doesn’t speak for London ? Colour me shocked.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 years! As for Khan's rep, people know that the swingeing cuts to the Met visited on our great city by the provincial monkeys in Westminster are somewhat to blame!
    That story seems to be entirely driven by the type of crime (more stabbings) rather than any actual rise in murder, in fact even this year it looks like London will be well under the murder rate for the early 2000s, and that's not even accounting for population growth.

    Why one type of murder is perceived as worse than another is something I do not understand.
  • Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    You mean @SeanT doesn’t speak for London ? Colour me shocked.
    Khan has a net rating of -8. Khan's high(ish) score is based solely on his positive reponses, not his net score. Inevitably, this means that those who are most well-known tend to do best. Corbyn comes top of the Labour politicians despite having a net score of -19.

    It is perhaps notable that only two of the top 16 Labour 'politicians' are currently on the front bench.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    The lead is 0.4% - equivalent to circa 200 votes in a UK seat. Quite heavy odds against probably , but it has happened here in general election counts. At Peterborough in 1966 Labour led by 162 on the first two counts but after six or seven recounts the Tories held on by 3 votes!
    At the Southampton Test count in 1964 the Labour candidate insisted on a bundle recount despite being circa 1600 behind on the initial count. He resisted attempts to talk him out of it , and in the ensuing recount several hundred Labour votes were found to have been placed in the Tory pile. A full recount was then ordered.The Tories eventually held on by circa 400.
    There might be a few absentee ballots, too.
    I'd make the buggers recount if it were me. Them's the rules, after all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Montana counting again :D
  • This is a rather good set of graphics showing where the Democrats gained House seats (both geographically and by demographics):

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2018/nov/07/blue-wave-or-blue-ripple-a-visual-guide-to-the-democrats-gains
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
  • justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    The lead is 0.4% - equivalent to circa 200 votes in a UK seat. Quite heavy odds against probably , but it has happened here in general election counts. At Peterborough in 1966 Labour led by 162 on the first two counts but after six or seven recounts the Tories held on by 3 votes!
    At the Southampton Test count in 1964 the Labour candidate insisted on a bundle recount despite being circa 1600 behind on the initial count. He resisted attempts to talk him out of it , and in the ensuing recount several hundred Labour votes were found to have been placed in the Tory pile. A full recount was then ordered.The Tories eventually held on by circa 400.
    It's not really the same though. You can overturn a 200 majority relatively easily if a bundle of 100 votes accidentally gets given the wrong colour tag and so is placed in the wrong box (these bundles used to be fifties - i'm not sure why they changed). By contrast, to overturn 30,000 votes, you'd need some systemic error: it simply isn't going to happen due to just miscounting - the effect of votes miscount either way would cancel themselves out to too great an extent.
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
    Not 'chadden'?
  • Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    You mean @SeanT doesn’t speak for London ? Colour me shocked.
    Khan has a net rating of -8. Khan's high(ish) score is based solely on his positive reponses, not his net score. Inevitably, this means that those who are most well-known tend to do best. Corbyn comes top of the Labour politicians despite having a net score of -19.

    It is perhaps notable that only two of the top 16 Labour 'politicians' are currently on the front bench.
    Correction - only one is (Corbyn). Khan, while a prominent and current Labour politician, isn't in the shadow cabinet.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    glw said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 years! As for Khan's rep, people know that the swingeing cuts to the Met visited on our great city by the provincial monkeys in Westminster are somewhat to blame!
    That story seems to be entirely driven by the type of crime (more stabbings) rather than any actual rise in murder, in fact even this year it looks like London will be well under the murder rate for the early 2000s, and that's not even accounting for population growth.

    Why one type of murder is perceived as worse than another is something I do not understand.
    Humans are actually pretty bad at calculating risk, and particularly bad a overestimating certain types of risk. If it is more gruesome, more out of our control, unknown or strange, or effecting kids or the weak etc..., we perceive the risk as higher than it actually is. Conversely, we consistently underestimate risk we choose to take, such as smoking, rock climbing, driving fast etc...

    I would suspect our perception of risks from acid attacks is even more out of whack with reality than our perception of risk from knife attacks.
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
    Not 'chadden'?
    It was around this time 18 years ago that I developed an obsession with chad.

    It was nerdgasms central for me.

    Politics, betting, and the law.
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
    "Chad" has been used both as a mass noun (as in "a pile of chad") and as a countable noun (pluralizing as in "many chads").

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_(paper)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
    "Chad" has been used both as a mass noun (as in "a pile of chad") and as a countable noun (pluralizing as in "many chads").

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_(paper)
    Any idiot with a keyboard can edit wikipedia, it is not a reliable source.

    Plus, I'm not going to trust any site that uses 'pluralizing', it is pluralising, we're not bastardising the English language because some Yanks cannot speak English.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    Point of trivia, Trump is the first Republican President since Eisenhower in 1954 to see his party lose control of the House of Representatives in his first midterms.

    George W Bush saw the GOP hold the House in his first midterms, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush Snr all came into office with the Democrats already in control of the House (though Reagan like Trump saw the Republicans hold the Senate in 1982)
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
    "Chad" has been used both as a mass noun (as in "a pile of chad") and as a countable noun (pluralizing as in "many chads").

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_(paper)
    Any idiot with a keyboard can edit wikipedia, it is not a reliable source.

    Plus, I'm not going to trust any site that uses 'pluralizing', it is pluralising, we're not bastardasing the English language because some Yanks cannot speak English.
    chad (countable and uncountable, plural chad or chads)

    *(uncountable) Small pieces of paper punched out from the edges of continuous stationery, or from ballot papers, paper tape, punched cards, etc.
    *(countable) One of these pieces of paper.


    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/chad
  • Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    The lead is 0.4% - equivalent to circa 200 votes in a UK seat. Quite heavy odds against probably , but it has happened here in general election counts. At Peterborough in 1966 Labour led by 162 on the first two counts but after six or seven recounts the Tories held on by 3 votes!
    At the Southampton Test count in 1964 the Labour candidate insisted on a bundle recount despite being circa 1600 behind on the initial count. He resisted attempts to talk him out of it , and in the ensuing recount several hundred Labour votes were found to have been placed in the Tory pile. A full recount was then ordered.The Tories eventually held on by circa 400.
    It's not really the same though. You can overturn a 200 majority relatively easily if a bundle of 100 votes accidentally gets given the wrong colour tag and so is placed in the wrong box (these bundles used to be fifties - i'm not sure why they changed). By contrast, to overturn 30,000 votes, you'd need some systemic error: it simply isn't going to happen due to just miscounting - the effect of votes miscount either way would cancel themselves out to too great an extent.
    I tend to agree. It is certainly not like Bush v Gore in the same state back in 2000 when the initial Bush lead of almost 2,000 fell back to less than 600 as a result of the automatic recount. In the end, the ensuing legal wrangle failed to take the matter any further , and to this day it remains unclear who really carried the state.
  • Oh god what have I started....
  • Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.

    That's surprizing,
  • Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.

    Fake news.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Unconfirmed Beto 48.3% in Texas.The landlord of this blog could buy a round or two.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Tester takes the lead :D

    Republican
    -£557.54
    Democrat
    £127.39
    Other
    -£293.00
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited November 2018

    Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.

    I like the idea of us being Britizh.

    Edit: Something else we can complain about the Americans misspelling.
  • Mr. Nabavi, you silly sausage.

    Mr. Eagles, the Cambridge/Oxford dictionaries are apparently to blame for the difference.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
    "Chad" has been used both as a mass noun (as in "a pile of chad") and as a countable noun (pluralizing as in "many chads").

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_(paper)
    Any idiot with a keyboard can edit wikipedia, it is not a reliable source.

    Plus, I'm not going to trust any site that uses 'pluralizing', it is pluralising, we're not bastardasing the English language because some Yanks cannot speak English.
    LOL TSE. You have just thrown down the gauntlet for me to spot you using an Americanism.
  • Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.

    Fake news.
    https://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/american/chad_1

    Noun [countable] American chad /tʃæd/

    Chad

    a piece removed from a ballot by a voter or voting machine in order to record a vote

  • Oh god what have I started....

    Stick to the less controversial subjects like the shiteness of Radiohead or pineapple on pizza.
  • Mr. Jezziah, one of my favourite historians is an America, TA Dodge. His books came out around 1900. Many of the spellings are what we would today consider British rather than American.

    Orwell used ye olde spellings like fore-arm and connexion. Interesting how little things can change.

    Mr. Eagles, and it's bastardising*.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,747
    Tim Martin seems to have freaked out the markets by issuing a hard Brexit manifesto as a trading statement for Wetherspoons.

    https://www.investegate.co.uk/wetherspoon--jd--plc--jdw-/rns/trading-statement/201811070700045528G/
  • Mr. Jezziah, one of my favourite historians is an America, TA Dodge. His books came out around 1900. Many of the spellings are what we would today consider British rather than American.

    Orwell used ye olde spellings like fore-arm and connexion. Interesting how little things can change.

    Mr. Eagles, and it's bastardising*.

    He's an America?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited November 2018
    glw said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Interesting Khan is up there, despite what seanT was saying yesterday about how (in his opinion) knife crime is hurting his rep in London.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 years! As for Khan's rep, people know that the swingeing cuts to the Met visited on our great city by the provincial monkeys in Westminster are somewhat to blame!
    That story seems to be entirely driven by the type of crime (more stabbings) rather than any actual rise in murder, in fact even this year it looks like London will be well under the murder rate for the early 2000s, and that's not even accounting for population growth.

    Why one type of murder is perceived as worse than another is something I do not understand.
    Indeed. This also baffles me. But SeanT said it so I guess it must be the case! :)
  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1060032186819272709?s=21

    Floridian felons is the new Mondeo man....

    Ex felons.
    I believe in the American system, which of course was inherited from ours, once convicted of a felony you retain the designation for life, no matter whether you've completed your sentence or not. Historically in English law, being convicted as a felon meant being subject to a mandatory forfeiture of life and property, so the condition of being a felon wouldn't be for long.
  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?

    Gowdin's Law?
  • Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland party has expelled a member of its state parliamentary group in Berlin because of a photograph showing the politician posing in front of wine bottles with Hitler labels.

    The action comes as leaders of AfD make attempts to clear extremist members from their ranks over fears the group could be put under state surveillance.

    The photos of Jessica Bießmann show her lying on her side on a kitchen counter. On a shelf in the background are four bottles, each with a label showing a picture of Adolf Hitler.

    Bießmann, who was elected to Berlin’s state parliament in 2016 and was family spokesperson for the AfD group, told Germany’s daily national newspaper Bild that she regretted that the photograph had been taken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/07/far-right-german-party-expels-spokesperson-for-hitler-labels-photo
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.

    Fake news.
    Fake Newz
  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?

    https://www.sciencealert.com/people-who-pick-up-grammar-mistakes-jerks-scientists-find


    url says it all!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think it's unlikely that a lead of 34,000 would be overturned, even if a recount is held. It would be like a lead of 250 in a British constituency.
    That’s a lot of hanging chads.
    The plural of chad is chad, not chads.
    Not 'chadden'?
    Surely "ched"

    If the plural of "man" is "men"...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.

    Correct. Yet I think the z-form will soon become unsanctioned in British English due to almost complete lack of usage. Even pedants like you and me don't use the z spelling because people perceive it to be an Americanism, even when it is, as you rightly say, also available in British English. So, the days of the z-form in British English are numbered, I think.

    A more worrying trend is for naked Americanisms entering the language. I see airplane written far too often in the UK. I also hear scheduling pronounced skeduling – indeed I dare say that is now the more common form.

    Still, at least our American friends do at least know that aitch the letter isn't pronounced haitch – so they do have some important things going for them.
  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?

    Gowdin's Law?
    lawlz
  • Anazina said:

    Mr. Eagles, both Z and S are correct in English.

    Americans only use the Z spelling. It's erroneously assumed by many on both sides of the Atlantic that S is therefore the only correct British way to spell such words.

    Correct. Yet I think the z-form will soon become unsanctioned in British English due to almost complete lack of usage. Even pedants like you and me don't use the z spelling because people perceive it to be an Americanism, even when it is, as you rightly say, also available in British English. So, the days of the z-form in British English are numbered, I think.

    A more worrying trend is for naked Americanisms entering the language. I see airplane written far too often in the UK. I also hear scheduling pronounced skeduling – indeed I dare say that is now the more common form.

    Still, at least our American friends do at least know that aitch the letter isn't pronounced haitch – so they do have some important things going for them.
    Winningest....now that is one that absolutely grinds my gears.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018
    As an aside, during my recent visits to Germany I've noticed a lot Confederate flags, I asked one of my German hosts why are they appearing in Germany, as the last time I checked Saxony wasn't in the American south.

    Apparently the Neo Nazis are using the Confederate flag because using Nazi symbols is still illegal in Germany.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916

    Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland party has expelled a member of its state parliamentary group in Berlin because of a photograph showing the politician posing in front of wine bottles with Hitler labels.

    The action comes as leaders of AfD make attempts to clear extremist members from their ranks over fears the group could be put under state surveillance.

    The photos of Jessica Bießmann show her lying on her side on a kitchen counter. On a shelf in the background are four bottles, each with a label showing a picture of Adolf Hitler.

    Bießmann, who was elected to Berlin’s state parliament in 2016 and was family spokesperson for the AfD group, told Germany’s daily national newspaper Bild that she regretted that the photograph had been taken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/07/far-right-german-party-expels-spokesperson-for-hitler-labels-photo

    I should think she regrets been seen wearing those boots as well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    rpjs said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1060032186819272709?s=21

    Floridian felons is the new Mondeo man....

    Ex felons.
    I believe in the American system, which of course was inherited from ours, once convicted of a felony you retain the designation for life, no matter whether you've completed your sentence or not. Historically in English law, being convicted as a felon meant being subject to a mandatory forfeiture of life and property, so the condition of being a felon wouldn't be for long.
    In practice, most felons were not executed. You could be hanged, or imprisoned, or transported to the colonies, either for a term or for life, or pardoned, or given a pardon in return for joining the armed forces. It was also a complete defence to a felony charge if a woman committed a felony on the instructions of her husband.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,154
    edited November 2018

    As an aside, during my recent visits to Germany I've noticed a lot Confederate flags, I asked one of my German hosts why are they appearing in Germany, as the last time I checked Saxony wasn't in the American south.

    Apparently the Neo Nazis are using the Confederate flag because using Nazi symbols are still illegal in Germany.

    I saw a recent video (I think newsnight) where they went to a bar in Germany that sold a whole range of items with labelling where prominent verboten words were misspelled / lacking vowels eg HTLR
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    As an aside, during my recent visits to Germany I've noticed a lot Confederate flags, I asked one of my German hosts why are they appearing in Germany, as the last time I checked Saxony wasn't in the American south.

    Apparently the Neo Nazis are using the Confederate flag because using Nazi symbols are still illegal in Germany.

    I saw a recent video (I think newsnight) where they went to a bar in Germany that sold a whole range of items with labelling where prominent verboten words were misspelled / lacking vowels eg HTLR
    Rd Crsby IPA is a bit hoppy for me.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Tester takes the lead :D

    Republican
    -£557.54
    Democrat
    £127.39
    Other
    -£293.00

    Phew
  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?

    https://www.sciencealert.com/people-who-pick-up-grammar-mistakes-jerks-scientists-find


    url says it all!
    Sorry, I have high standards when it comes to (protecting) the English language.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    As an aside, during my recent visits to Germany I've noticed a lot Confederate flags, I asked one of my German hosts why are they appearing in Germany, as the last time I checked Saxony wasn't in the American south.

    Apparently the Neo Nazis are using the Confederate flag because using Nazi symbols is still illegal in Germany.

    White supremacists love using flags of the Second Reich, the Third Reich and the Confederacy. They might as well have big banners saying "We are losers that suck at fighting wars." They get clobbered by democratic liberals every time.
  • There was a prominent German online poker player who for years was allowed the screen name IHateJuice.
  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?

    https://www.sciencealert.com/people-who-pick-up-grammar-mistakes-jerks-scientists-find


    url says it all!
    Sorry, I have high standards when it comes to (protecting) the English language.
    Which makes it so ironic how often you're brought down by your "autocorrect"!
  • As an aside, during my recent visits to Germany I've noticed a lot Confederate flags, I asked one of my German hosts why are they appearing in Germany, as the last time I checked Saxony wasn't in the American south.

    There's a Dresden in Tennessee.

  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?

    https://www.sciencealert.com/people-who-pick-up-grammar-mistakes-jerks-scientists-find


    url says it all!
    Sorry, I have high standards when it comes to (protecting) the English language.
    Which makes it so ironic how often you're brought down by your "autocorrect"!
    Irony is always amusing, plus writing threads on an iPhone is pain, always prefer a MacBook.

    My favourite was one of my fans obsessing about my correct use of the Oxford Comma, said fan was incapable of correctly using apostrophes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Trump doesn't sound well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    President Trump speaking now about the midterms, says the GOP won 9 out of 11 races he campaigned in in the last fortnight and he had the best Senate results for an incumbent President in their first midterms since the 1930s.

    He says he did better in terms of his party's House losses than Obama did in 2010 and blames defeats in GOP districts on retirements. He says those who were committed to the Trump agenda of low tax, low regulation and strong borders did well, those who stayed away from him did badly, eg GOP Congresswoman Mia Love 'too bad Mia', GOP Congressmen Peter Roskam, Erik Paulson 'did not want the embrace' and all lost.


    Trump concludes saying he has a 'great relationship' with Senate Majority Leader McConnell and 'a great deal of respect' for Speaker elect Pelosi's hard work and what she has achieved. Says the Democrats will come with healthcare and infrastructure proposals and he will negotiate says the Democrats 'stick together' better than Republicans
  • Scott_P said:
    The net result is that the Speaker, who denies bullying, has made an order to hide information about the behaviour of his close personal friend, Keith Vaz, a man who also denies bullying - supposedly to protect MPs' freedom of speech.
    And then he has gone out of his way to use a personal veto to make sure no-one could even consider reviewing that questionable decision.

    Wrong’uns...
    And strangely forgetful:

    https://spotlightonabuse.wordpress.com/2013/02/15/keith-vaz-and-the-mystery-of-barnes-common/
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1060032186819272709?s=21

    Floridian felons is the new Mondeo man....

    Ex felons.
    I believe in the American system, which of course was inherited from ours, once convicted of a felony you retain the designation for life, no matter whether you've completed your sentence or not. Historically in English law, being convicted as a felon meant being subject to a mandatory forfeiture of life and property, so the condition of being a felon wouldn't be for long.
    In practice, most felons were not executed. You could be hanged, or imprisoned, or transported to the colonies, either for a term or for life, or pardoned, or given a pardon in return for joining the armed forces. It was also a complete defence to a felony charge if a woman committed a felony on the instructions of her husband.
    Indeed, but wasn't that more in the later 18th and early 19th centuries? As I understand it, increasing population led to increasing crime which was met with a huge increase in capital (felony) offences, as a deterrent, since detection was unlikely with no professional police. This lead to juries becoming reluctant to convict even when the evidence was clear as they were reluctant to hang people for relatively minor offences. This led to workarounds like "benefit of clergy" and the Judgement of Death Act.
  • Mr. Eagles, he certainly is. Was the 51st state.

    Which law is it that states the likelihood of making a typo increases when you point out someone else's?

    https://www.sciencealert.com/people-who-pick-up-grammar-mistakes-jerks-scientists-find


    url says it all!
    Sorry, I have high standards when it comes to (protecting) the English language.
    Which makes it so ironic how often you're brought down by your "autocorrect"!
    Irony is always amusing, plus writing threads on an iPhone is pain, always prefer a MacBook.

    My favourite was one of my fans obsessing about my correct use of the Oxford Comma, said fan was incapable of correctly using apostrophes.
    So what you are saying is the iPhone is a crap....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018

    There was a prominent German online poker player who for years was allowed the screen name IHateJuice.

    This always amused* me.

    image

    *If that's the right word.
This discussion has been closed.