politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Angela’s Ashes. Germany throws its two party system on the bon
Comments
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Mr. Pulpstar, there's a move afoot in the Republic of Ireland to axe the blasphemy law.
I agree entirely with your sentiment. Blasphemy is a backward nonsense that belongs in the dustbin of history.0 -
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And seems determined that the rest of the EZ should do likewise, hence the current slow down.MaxPB said:
Even if they had a functional government it wouldn't sign up for fiscal loosening. Germany has bought into the cult of perpetual austerity.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.0 -
Some extra German wealth consumption would boost the European economies in general.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.
But in work make an interesting contrast with the problems the Italian government are having with its budget.0 -
Unfortunately the rules Hartford comes up with are impossible to achieve in a political arena, so really the thrust of the article should be that it would be useful if it were possible to run Brexit like a large mega construction project, but politics precludes this - not quite so snappy.Foxy said:
There is an interesting piece in the FT today on Brexit as an example of how not to do large project management, comparing it to Sydney Opera House.OldKingCole said:
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next,Foxy said:
The democratic problem we see with Brexit, and also in @Allanbrookes excellent header, is that chucking out the government is not in itself enough. There has to be a valid and coherent alternative that commands majority support. Brexit, CDU/SPD coalition or even May vs Corbyn all demonstrate this as an issue. An unloved and lacklustre zombie carries on, stumbling from mess to disaster, kept on the move merely by the alternatives being worse. This is clearly not just a British problem, but a wider problem of democracies from France to Brazil.Jonathan said:The most important question in elections is ‘who do I vote for to kick out the government’. If there isn’t a clear answer to that question you have to wonder how democratic your system is. With 5 years of coalition, Germany has muddied that question.
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next, in Germany if the CDU/SPD collapses there is no coherent government that can be formed.
I see this as an aspect of the fragmentation of social solidarity. A culture of individualism emerging from sixties counterculture has shredded allegiences to church, unions, political parties, civic pride and nation. It is not easy to return there.
It’s not just if it collapses. ‘After Brexit” (assuming it happens) Leavers seem to be anticipating a prosperous Britain, trading all over the world, and coping easily with all problems, without any evidence of planning for the eventuality. Remainers too seem to assume that all will be well both with our relations with our neighbours, whom we have royally pissed off, and at home with discontented and deprived Leavers.
In both cases in fact there will be some very unhappy people, both inside and outside the political bubble.
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1055702066193149952?s=19
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Surely the EU will have a law against it?TOPPING said:
It's very clear. We can leave any time we god damn choose; it's just that this weak, lily-livered government has decided not to impose pain and suffering on a large scale on the country. Damn them.Jonathan said:
Well quite.CarlottaVance said:
I don’t know if the electorate had decided to “kick the buggers out” in Brussels - but they concluded that BREXIT was the only means at their disposal to remove them from our governance. An electorate asserting itself! What ever next?Jonathan said:
So the electorate find another way.Gallowgate said:
It’s not about ‘kicking out the government’ but rather influencing them towards a particular direction or policy.Jonathan said:The most important question in elections is ‘who do I vote for to kick out the government’. If there isn’t a clear answer to that question you have to wonder how democratic your system is. With 5 years of coalition, Germany has muddied that question.
It’s a lot more nuenced than our rudimental system that swings from one extreme to the other.
I mentioned the other day that there is a nice paradox at the heart of Brexit.
If leaving the EU is possible then we probably don't need to leave. It's clearly in our economic interest to stay and we are genuinely free to leave should that change.
However, if we discover we can't leave the EU due to all the legal/political/diplomatic constraints and shenanigans, then we weren't independent, there is a democratic deficit and the Leavers have a point.
It's unclear where we are at the moment.
Beachy head is always there for anyone of a free will to jump off it should they so choose.0 -
Over time, I've increasingly come to consider that many people voted leave, not because they knew anything about the EU, but more to kick the B****rs (in Westminster) in the Bollocks.Jonathan said:
Well quite.CarlottaVance said:
I don’t know if the electorate had decided to “kick the buggers out” in Brussels - but they concluded that BREXIT was the only means at their disposal to remove them from our governance. An electorate asserting itself! What ever next?Jonathan said:
So the electorate find another way.Gallowgate said:
It’s not about ‘kicking out the government’ but rather influencing them towards a particular direction or policy.Jonathan said:The most important question in elections is ‘who do I vote for to kick out the government’. If there isn’t a clear answer to that question you have to wonder how democratic your system is. With 5 years of coalition, Germany has muddied that question.
It’s a lot more nuenced than our rudimental system that swings from one extreme to the other.
I mentioned the other day that there is a nice paradox at the heart of Brexit.
If leaving the EU is possible then we probably don't need to leave. It's clearly in our economic interest to stay and we are genuinely free to leave should that change.
However, if we discover we can't leave the EU due to all the legal/political/diplomatic constraints and shenanigans, then we weren't independent, there is a democratic deficit and the Leavers have a point.
It's unclear where we are at the moment.0 -
rottenborough said:
Labour drops press complaint about Jezza's Tunis holiday.
I wonder why?
The integrity of the process had been compromised. Apparently.0 -
Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/0 -
I think my attitude to money is quite 'german' (Aside from being a homeowner rather than long term renter). The economy would collapse overnight if everyone was like me.another_richard said:
Some extra German wealth consumption would boost the European economies in general.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.
But in work make an interesting contrast with the problems the Italian government are having with its budget.0 -
#changeiscomingDavidL said:rottenborough said:Labour drops press complaint about Jezza's Tunis holiday.
I wonder why?
The integrity of the process had been compromised. Apparently.0 -
I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.0
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I was told an extremely scurrilous story about Hain on an Edinburgh building site of all places. Unfortunately not having the protection of parliamentary privilege...Roger said:
I know. Hard to believe. Some of us remember when he had to dig up cricket pitches.....OldKingCole said:
Peter Hain? Publicity??Roger said:OT Interesting discussion on whether an UNELECTED politician-Peter Hain-should have the right to invoke parliamentary privilege. Strikes me as contrary to natural justice and rather a nasty publicity stunt by Hain.
On to Alanbrooke's article.....0 -
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
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The tides are undeniable but a ship our size still has a considerable ability to tack to a line of our own choosing.JosiasJessop said:
No, both. We are no longer an island unto ourselves, but part of a larger global society that will increasingly play a large role in our lives. Brexit's not going to change that, and I'm unsure it'd be good for it to do so.CarlottaVance said:
Our economic affairs quite likely, how we run ourselves as a country, much less so. And ultimately if we don’t want them to have sway over our economic affairs, then we could choose that too.JosiasJessop said:
The idea that a massively larger trading block immediately neighbouring us won't have significant sway over our affairs is ludicrous.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, if we leave yet the EU maintains significant sway over our affairs, both sides will continue to make the claims you've indicated.
What Brexit will give us is less influence, and we'll be more likely to be swayed by the stronger international tides.0 -
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.
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This is a huge worry. I fear the increasing obsession on the left of blocking anyone who dares to have another point of view and not be a purist true believer, will simply fuel the rise of the populist and Far Right in this country.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
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Has Williamson just leaked part of the Budget?
Didn't that use to be a definite political or indeed constitutional no-no?0 -
I'm not sure that one can believe anything printed in The Telegraph on Brexit. Partisanship trumps objectivity every time.rottenborough said:Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/0 -
On Topic great article and it leads me into considering post modernity and the crisis in leadership. There is a paradox that we want leaders who make decisions, but we then tear them down for doing so. Look at France, Germany and U.K. all the leaders are non entities. This goes beyond government to wider society - look at sport - very few footballers I would now class as leaders, cricket Joe Root is struggling with the Mate in the dressing room problem.
The interesting thing betting wise is next leader markets - do people want ideological leaders like Corbyn or Trump, or do they want administrators like May and Macron?0 -
I don't think that unlovely cocktail of authoritarianism and over-sensitivity is entirely confined to the Left. As Alastair pointed out downthread, there are plenty of calls for heads on spikes if the One True Brexit is questioned.rottenborough said:
This is a huge worry. I fear the increasing obsession on the left of blocking anyone who dares to have another point of view and not be a purist true believer, will simply fuel the rise of the populist and Far Right in this country.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
In what I'll laughingly call 'my community', the issue of self-id provokes similar zealotry. As ever, the moderates don their tin hats and quietly get on with life while the zealots fight their imaginary wars online.0 -
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.0 -
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.0 -
I don't believe anything written about Brexit in any paper. None of them are honest brokers in this area. The FT tries valiantly, as always. The Daily Oligarch Independent is particularly hysterical on the topic.matt said:
I'm not sure that one can believe anything printed in The Telegraph on Brexit. Partisanship trumps objectivity every time.rottenborough said:Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/0 -
But if we were all German where would the growth come from?John_M said:
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.0 -
Mr. M, should buy The Daily Dancer. It's news, with bells on. All the important topics are covered: F1, lacy menswear, how best to genetically engineer land-walking superfish, etc.0
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Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
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The upcoming fight is going to be whether successive Govts. can change May's Shit Deal, or whether May is saying that other Govts. will be unable to re-open May's Shit Deal. If it's the latter, it gets killed by Cabinet.rottenborough said:Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/
Labour won't help her - they will say that May's Shit Deal shouldn't bind them as it is a Shit Deal, and they would have got a less shit deal. Whether that incoming Corbyn Govt. can in fact get a better deal is suspect at best, but they will want to keep open the opportunity to at least try for it, if only to keep on-side the Brexit-voting masses in their seats. And those voters will be happy to hear that May's Shit Deal will get re-opened by an incoming Labour Govt. As will many UKIP-inclined voters....
If May's Shit Deal can be re-opened, then she has fucked around for two years and will have no legacy to speak of. Well, other than fucking up an election that lost her majority. And Brexit. And a natty "Worst PM in a Century" trophy to keep on the mantelpiece....0 -
He'll be ok, he is T May #1 fan.rottenborough said:Has Williamson just leaked part of the Budget?
Didn't that use to be a definite political or indeed constitutional no-no?0 -
I am the one asking ze questions here.DavidL said:
But if we were all German where would the growth come from?John_M said:
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.0 -
The German economic model is dependent upon other countries not being like Germany.John_M said:
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.
Ironic isn't it.0 -
oh and great header, @Alanbrooke.0
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Deplatforming is not censoring. And the most recent upholding of this principle was a right wing deplatforming, when it was held that advocates of gay marriage could not demand that message be iced in fondant by unsympathetic Baptists.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
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Quite easy, as Germany's Vassal States....John_M said:
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.0 -
Here is the first stanza of Ralf Bendix's 1964 song which encapsulates the German attitude to life. Almost every line is an illustration of Germany's problems for itself and its neighbours.
Schaffe, schaffe Häusle baue
und ned nach de Mädle schaue
Und wenn unser Häusle steht,
dann gibt's noch keine Ruh'
denn dann sparen wir, dann sparen wir
für 'ne Ziege und 'ne Kuh
Work, work to build a house
and don't look at the girls.
And when our house is built,
then there is no rest
because then we save, then we save
for a goat and a cow.0 -
Sounds perfect!Theuniondivvie said:
I was told an extremely scurrilous story about Hain on an Edinburgh building site of all places. Unfortunately not having the protection of parliamentary privilege...Roger said:
I know. Hard to believe. Some of us remember when he had to dig up cricket pitches.....OldKingCole said:
Peter Hain? Publicity??Roger said:OT Interesting discussion on whether an UNELECTED politician-Peter Hain-should have the right to invoke parliamentary privilege. Strikes me as contrary to natural justice and rather a nasty publicity stunt by Hain.
On to Alanbrooke's article.....
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=monty+pyton+TV+Blackmail#id=3&vid=47f82c7d68bd546e8d07d03bf2cc9d76&action=view0 -
Can you tell us what you really think ?MarqueeMark said:
The upcoming fight is going to be whether successive Govts. can change May's Shit Deal, or whether May is saying that other Govts. will be unable to re-open May's Shit Deal. If it's the latter, it gets killed by Cabinet.rottenborough said:Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/
Labour won't help her - they will say that May's Shit Deal shouldn't bind them as it is a Shit Deal, and they would have got a less shit deal. Whether that incoming Corbyn Govt. can in fact get a better deal is suspect at best, but they will want to keep open the opportunity to at least try for it, if only to keep on-side the Brexit-voting masses in their seats. And those voters will be happy to hear that May's Shit Deal will get re-opened by an incoming Labour Govt. As will many UKIP-inclined voters....
If May's Shit Deal can be re-opened, then she has fucked around for two years and will have no legacy to speak of. Well, other than fucking up an election that lost her majority. And Brexit. And a natty "Worst PM in a Century" trophy to keep on the mantelpiece....0 -
One caveat to the 'German way', you're better off borrowing than saving in a time of negative real interest rates. Like err now.0
-
As I recall, the Austrian government that has this blasphemy law is that of the Freedom Party, generally accepted as being right wing.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
0 -
Have you not seen the Incredibles? That doesn’t always work out well.Pulpstar said:
He'll be ok, he is T May #1 fan.rottenborough said:Has Williamson just leaked part of the Budget?
Didn't that use to be a definite political or indeed constitutional no-no?0 -
You have to learn to read between the lines with my posts.....Pulpstar said:
Can you tell us what you really think ?MarqueeMark said:
The upcoming fight is going to be whether successive Govts. can change May's Shit Deal, or whether May is saying that other Govts. will be unable to re-open May's Shit Deal. If it's the latter, it gets killed by Cabinet.rottenborough said:Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/
Labour won't help her - they will say that May's Shit Deal shouldn't bind them as it is a Shit Deal, and they would have got a less shit deal. Whether that incoming Corbyn Govt. can in fact get a better deal is suspect at best, but they will want to keep open the opportunity to at least try for it, if only to keep on-side the Brexit-voting masses in their seats. And those voters will be happy to hear that May's Shit Deal will get re-opened by an incoming Labour Govt. As will many UKIP-inclined voters....
If May's Shit Deal can be re-opened, then she has fucked around for two years and will have no legacy to speak of. Well, other than fucking up an election that lost her majority. And Brexit. And a natty "Worst PM in a Century" trophy to keep on the mantelpiece....0 -
Well, why would you look at the girls when you have a goat?geoffw said:Here is the first stanza of Ralf Bendix's 1964 song which encapsulates the German attitude to life. Almost every line is an illustration of Germany's problems for itself and its neighbours.
Schaffe, schaffe Häusle baue
und ned nach de Mädle schaue
Und wenn unser Häusle steht,
dann gibt's noch keine Ruh'
denn dann sparen wir, dann sparen wir
für 'ne Ziege und 'ne Kuh
Work, work to build a house
and don't look at the girls.
And when our house is built,
then there is no rest
because then we save, then we save
for a goat and a cow.0 -
They should probably look into scrapping it then. Like the Irish are.Foxy said:
As I recall, the Austrian government that has this blasphemy law is that of the Freedom Party, generally accepted as being right wing.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
0 -
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
0 -
45 years ago at 18 my Professor of Economics started his first class of year with a simple statement. When politics and economics get into a fight, economics will always win.CarlottaVance said:
Our economic affairs quite likely, how we run ourselves as a country, much less so. And ultimately if we don’t want them to have sway over our economic affairs, then we could choose that too. But this is the grand misunderstanding of BREXIT - it’s not the economy, stupid!JosiasJessop said:
The idea that a massively larger trading block immediately neighbouring us won't have significant sway over our affairs is ludicrous.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, if we leave yet the EU maintains significant sway over our affairs, both sides will continue to make the claims you've indicated.
0 -
Assuming that the negative real interest rates remain through the term. And also assuming that it's not accompanied by negative inflation and/or incomes.Pulpstar said:One caveat to the 'German way', you're better off borrowing than saving in a time of negative real interest rates. Like err now.
0 -
Morning all
Hesse will be interesting but oddly enough the CDU-Green coalition is well placed to survive and the question then becomes whether that becomes a prospective governing model for the whole country in lieu of anything else.
The latest Civey poll which has a much larger sample shows CDU on 27, SDP on 22, Green on 18.5, AfD on 13, FDP on 8 and Linke on 7.5 which gets them all into the Landtag. I think CDU has notched a point or two off the floor and the CSU result in Bavaria was better than many polls suggested so I suspect CDU may be nearer 30% on Sunday with the SPD and Greens around 20 each.
West Germany used migrant labour extensively in the 60s and 70s just as we did but whereas our migrant labourers were from former Commonwealth countries and had rights to settle, the West German gastarbeiter from Turkey and Yugoslavia had very limited rights of residence and basically could only stay as long as their work permit allowed - it's a model which could be adopted for the UK's post-EU immigration policy in theory.
As others have said, politics abhors a vacuum and if the two large parties become the Government, something will become the Opposition and that seems to be the Greens and Alternativ and to a lesser extent Linke and the FPD. Had the "Jamaica" coalition option worked after the last Bundestag election, I suspect the SPD would be in a much stronger position now but the splintering of parties hasn't brought about a consequential widening of options.0 -
It will only be a shit Withdrawal Agreement, probably with the Irish backstop agreed by EU terms.MarqueeMark said:
The upcoming fight is going to be whether successive Govts. can change May's Shit Deal, or whether May is saying that other Govts. will be unable to re-open May's Shit Deal. If it's the latter, it gets killed by Cabinet.rottenborough said:Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/
Labour won't help her - they will say that May's Shit Deal shouldn't bind them as it is a Shit Deal, and they would have got a less shit deal. Whether that incoming Corbyn Govt. can in fact get a better deal is suspect at best, but they will want to keep open the opportunity to at least try for it, if only to keep on-side the Brexit-voting masses in their seats. And those voters will be happy to hear that May's Shit Deal will get re-opened by an incoming Labour Govt. As will many UKIP-inclined voters....
If May's Shit Deal can be re-opened, then she has fucked around for two years and will have no legacy to speak of. Well, other than fucking up an election that lost her majority. And Brexit. And a natty "Worst PM in a Century" trophy to keep on the mantelpiece....
The shit FTA will be then opened for negotiation.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
The decision was that an Austrian law prohibiting blasphemy did not infringe the right to freedom of expression. It does not require countries to have an anti-blasphemy law. Paragraph 58 of the judgment summarises the ECHR's position:kle4 said:
I hope it's more nuanced than that first glance report suggests.Morris_Dancer said:Meanwhile, in the EU and blasphemy news:
https://twitter.com/Evolutionistrue/status/1055534698422824960
https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#
Still a stupid law and a stupid decision.
Any blasphemy law inhibits free expression, for believers because it does not allow them to question their belief system, and for non-believers who are expected to take account of something they find untrue, ridiculous or offensive.
If there is no religious peace - in itself a dubious concept - it is because some believers choose to act violently in response. That response should be criticised - severely - not coddled and supported.0 -
Its not really a gay issue its just common sense, the same ruling stops the EDL demanding cartoons of Mohammed from muslim bakers as a right.AlastairMeeks said:
Deplatforming is not censoring. And the most recent upholding of this principle was a right wing deplatforming, when it was held that advocates of gay marriage could not demand that message be iced in fondant by unsympathetic Baptists.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
0 -
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.0 -
Deplatforming can be censoring if it's carried out on such a scale that it denies a viewpoint a meaningful/proportionate voice.AlastairMeeks said:
Deplatforming is not censoring. And the most recent upholding of this principle was a right wing deplatforming, when it was held that advocates of gay marriage could not demand that message be iced in fondant by unsympathetic Baptists.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
0 -
It used to be. It isn't really now. Indeed, Downing St (both Nos 10 and 11) routinely 'trail' - i.e. 'leak' - Budget highlights before the speech.rottenborough said:Has Williamson just leaked part of the Budget?
Didn't that use to be a definite political or indeed constitutional no-no?0 -
Negotiation? I think not - the UK will be given terms and told to take it or leave it.Foxy said:
It will only be a shit Withdrawal Agreement, probably with the Irish backstop agreed by EU terms.MarqueeMark said:
The upcoming fight is going to be whether successive Govts. can change May's Shit Deal, or whether May is saying that other Govts. will be unable to re-open May's Shit Deal. If it's the latter, it gets killed by Cabinet.rottenborough said:Cox is emerging as a key figure behind the scenes on Brexit:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/25/cabinet-waking-consequences-mays-plans-could-gone-christmas/
Labour won't help her - they will say that May's Shit Deal shouldn't bind them as it is a Shit Deal, and they would have got a less shit deal. Whether that incoming Corbyn Govt. can in fact get a better deal is suspect at best, but they will want to keep open the opportunity to at least try for it, if only to keep on-side the Brexit-voting masses in their seats. And those voters will be happy to hear that May's Shit Deal will get re-opened by an incoming Labour Govt. As will many UKIP-inclined voters....
If May's Shit Deal can be re-opened, then she has fucked around for two years and will have no legacy to speak of. Well, other than fucking up an election that lost her majority. And Brexit. And a natty "Worst PM in a Century" trophy to keep on the mantelpiece....
The shit FTA will be then opened for negotiation.0 -
wrt earlier comment, yes looking forward Germany is facing some headwinds particularly in the car industry. However theyve had several years of steady growth, the government is reporting record income and for a high wage economy unemployment is admirably low.another_richard said:
The German economic model is dependent upon other countries not being like Germany.John_M said:
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.
Ironic isn't it.
As you point out most of this has been at the expense of other European countries I saw recently the Euro is overvalues by 9% if you are Italian and undervalued by 11% if you are German. You can see the impact on the two economies.0 -
The only 'hard cases' on censorship should be the ones where the judgment of our security services are needed.david_herdson said:
Deplatforming can be censoring if it's carried out on such a scale that it denies a viewpoint a meaningful/proportionate voice.AlastairMeeks said:
Deplatforming is not censoring. And the most recent upholding of this principle was a right wing deplatforming, when it was held that advocates of gay marriage could not demand that message be iced in fondant by unsympathetic Baptists.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
0 -
LOLDavidL said:
Well, why would you look at the girls when you have a goat?geoffw said:Here is the first stanza of Ralf Bendix's 1964 song which encapsulates the German attitude to life. Almost every line is an illustration of Germany's problems for itself and its neighbours.
Schaffe, schaffe Häusle baue
und ned nach de Mädle schaue
Und wenn unser Häusle steht,
dann gibt's noch keine Ruh'
denn dann sparen wir, dann sparen wir
für 'ne Ziege und 'ne Kuh
Work, work to build a house
and don't look at the girls.
And when our house is built,
then there is no rest
because then we save, then we save
for a goat and a cow.0 -
Technicality - whilst that may be threatening people on the right (in this country anyway) are not the ones openly looking to restrict free speech. Whether they actually want an open debate is another matter.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
0 -
Edgar Allen has a lot to answer for.Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
0 -
A better example....Guildo Horn in a Ferrero ad. Don't judge!geoffw said:Here is the first stanza of Ralf Bendix's 1964 song which encapsulates the German attitude to life. Almost every line is an illustration of Germany's problems for itself and its neighbours.
Schaffe, schaffe Häusle baue
und ned nach de Mädle schaue
Und wenn unser Häusle steht,
dann gibt's noch keine Ruh'
denn dann sparen wir, dann sparen wir
für 'ne Ziege und 'ne Kuh
Work, work to build a house
and don't look at the girls.
And when our house is built,
then there is no rest
because then we save, then we save
for a goat and a cow.
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=guildo+horn.+chocolate+advert#id=2&vid=9f7c355f3b832e61133db67ef3a97cda&action=click0 -
Because the goat has just been shot by a passing American tourist?DavidL said:
Well, why would you look at the girls when you have a goat?geoffw said:Here is the first stanza of Ralf Bendix's 1964 song which encapsulates the German attitude to life. Almost every line is an illustration of Germany's problems for itself and its neighbours.
Schaffe, schaffe Häusle baue
und ned nach de Mädle schaue
Und wenn unser Häusle steht,
dann gibt's noch keine Ruh'
denn dann sparen wir, dann sparen wir
für 'ne Ziege und 'ne Kuh
Work, work to build a house
and don't look at the girls.
And when our house is built,
then there is no rest
because then we save, then we save
for a goat and a cow.0 -
The very definition of a non-optimal currency area.Alanbrooke said:
wrt earlier comment, yes looking forward Germany is facing some headwinds particularly in the car industry. However theyve had several years of steady growth, the government is reporting record income and for a high wage economy unemployment is admirably low.another_richard said:
The German economic model is dependent upon other countries not being like Germany.John_M said:
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:
Agreed. Their export growth has been possible because of the more expansionary policies of the rest of the EZ,’amongst others. The U.K. has also contributed substantially.geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:
The reason domestic demand is so low in Germany is that they have a saving habit as extreme as our love of cheap credit. This includes the government who have a comfortable surplus and the capacity to increase demand.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.
Ironic isn't it.
As you point out most of this has been at the expense of other European countries I saw recently the Euro is overvalues by 9% if you are Italian and undervalued by 11% if you are German. You can see the impact on the two economies.
0 -
Yet. The decline in the SPD share and the rise of the Greens as a sensible and genuine alternative could produce a tipping point before long.stodge said:Morning all
Hesse will be interesting but oddly enough the CDU-Green coalition is well placed to survive and the question then becomes whether that becomes a prospective governing model for the whole country in lieu of anything else.
The latest Civey poll which has a much larger sample shows CDU on 27, SDP on 22, Green on 18.5, AfD on 13, FDP on 8 and Linke on 7.5 which gets them all into the Landtag. I think CDU has notched a point or two off the floor and the CSU result in Bavaria was better than many polls suggested so I suspect CDU may be nearer 30% on Sunday with the SPD and Greens around 20 each.
West Germany used migrant labour extensively in the 60s and 70s just as we did but whereas our migrant labourers were from former Commonwealth countries and had rights to settle, the West German gastarbeiter from Turkey and Yugoslavia had very limited rights of residence and basically could only stay as long as their work permit allowed - it's a model which could be adopted for the UK's post-EU immigration policy in theory.
As others have said, politics abhors a vacuum and if the two large parties become the Government, something will become the Opposition and that seems to be the Greens and Alternativ and to a lesser extent Linke and the FPD. Had the "Jamaica" coalition option worked after the last Bundestag election, I suspect the SPD would be in a much stronger position now but the splintering of parties hasn't brought about a consequential widening of options.0 -
@AlastairMeeks is right. Calling people traitors, saboteurs, quislings and the rest has been a very depressing and all too common response by some pro-Brexiteers. Unacceptable.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
People are entitled to disagree strongly with a policy without being labelled as unpatriotic or a traitor. We can all have different views about what is best for the country.
There is a respectable case for saying that Britain and the EU are not a good fit and that maybe a different arrangement should be found. Mr Meeks himself is not the EU’s biggest fan. But that has not been the case put by the Ultra-Brexiteers who at times have made it sound as if we are or should be practically at war with our neighbours. It has utterly ruined and demeaned their case.0 -
This weeks poll should have taken a bit of the heat off the CDU but the German press is speculating it will need a third party to make coalition work in Hessen. Only the vote will tell.stodge said:Morning all
Hesse will be interesting but oddly enough the CDU-Green coalition is well placed to survive and the question then becomes whether that becomes a prospective governing model for the whole country in lieu of anything else.
The latest Civey poll which has a much larger sample shows CDU on 27, SDP on 22, Green on 18.5, AfD on 13, FDP on 8 and Linke on 7.5 which gets them all into the Landtag. I think CDU has notched a point or two off the floor and the CSU result in Bavaria was better than many polls suggested so I suspect CDU may be nearer 30% on Sunday with the SPD and Greens around 20 each.
West Germany used migrant labour extensively in the 60s and 70s just as we did but whereas our migrant labourers were from former Commonwealth countries and had rights to settle, the West German gastarbeiter from Turkey and Yugoslavia had very limited rights of residence and basically could only stay as long as their work permit allowed - it's a model which could be adopted for the UK's post-EU immigration policy in theory.
As others have said, politics abhors a vacuum and if the two large parties become the Government, something will become the Opposition and that seems to be the Greens and Alternativ and to a lesser extent Linke and the FPD. Had the "Jamaica" coalition option worked after the last Bundestag election, I suspect the SPD would be in a much stronger position now but the splintering of parties hasn't brought about a consequential widening of options.0 -
On topic, a really interesting article @Alanbrooke.
Really good to have analysis of the politics of other countries on this site. Thank you.0 -
Germany is full of Poles! Lines of them looking for work. They've been around for years. They employ them where they can. Lots of the extras in the ad I just posted are Poles.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.0 -
I was referring to their decision not to let them have free movement in 2004. That seemed to me then, and now, to be a shabby decision (and the British decision to do the opposite an honourable one) quite at odds with @Roger’s claim about what Germans thought important.Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
0 -
One day economists, like software engineers, will have to go through the painful process of realising they are not a branch of physics or production engineering.Nemtynakht said:
Unfortunately the rules Hartford comes up with are impossible to achieve in a political arena, so really the thrust of the article should be that it would be useful if it were possible to run Brexit like a large mega construction project, but politics precludes this - not quite so snappy.Foxy said:
There is an interesting piece in the FT today on Brexit as an example of how not to do large project management, comparing it to Sydney Opera House.OldKingCole said:
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next,Foxy said:
snip ..Jonathan said:The most important question in elections is ‘who do I vote for to kick out the government’. If there isn’t a clear answer to that question you have to wonder how democratic your system is. With 5 years of coalition, Germany has muddied that question.
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next, in Germany if the CDU/SPD collapses there is no coherent government that can be formed.
I see this as an aspect of the fragmentation of social solidarity. A culture of individualism emerging from sixties counterculture has shredded allegiences to church, unions, political parties, civic pride and nation. It is not easy to return there.
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1055702066193149952?s=19
My old boss, the lovely Charles Hoare, reflected on this problem when he claimed he had wasted over 20 years of his life on formal methods and Z - now I teach sociolotechnical design and ethnomethodology to my requirements engineering students because large human-centred systems aren't like buildings, production lines etc and political systems least of all.
Yes complex systems are just that 'systems' but that doesn't mean they are predictable, rational or operate in a deterministic fashion. The Sydney opera house worked because Arne Jacobsen was a great architect and there was good quality project control but at no point did Arne say 'you know what, I think it should be square, with corinthian columns"0 -
Just came across this article from Vancouver where they are having a referendum about a new electoral voting system, this seems to explain most of the different systems around, with pro and con arguments:
https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/10/25/electoral-dysfunction-experts-abroad-weigh-bc-voting-systems-in-referendum.html0 -
There arent 2m Poles unless you get to count ethnic Germany from the old German East.;Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
Though Germany is now taking in more people from its neighbours as it starts to face labour shortage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Foreign_nationals_in_Germany
Poles generally are now more inclined to stay at home as their economy has made progress and average wages are now about 70% of the EU average.0 -
Yes - you may well be right. The current CDU-Green Coalition won 49.4% of the vote in 2013 and governs with 61 out of 110 seats in the Landtag so they have a little margin but not much. Civey gives the two parties a combined share of 45.5% which won't be enough but Forschungsgruppe suggests 48% which might. The other advantage is to ask where is the alternative governing option - SPD/Green/Linke would have a majority but could that really happen?Alanbrooke said:
This weeks poll should have taken a bit of the heat off the CDU but the German press is speculating it will need a third party to make coalition work in Hessen. Only the vote will tell.stodge said:Morning all
Hesse will be interesting but oddly enough the CDU-Green coalition is well placed to survive and the question then becomes whether that becomes a prospective governing model for the whole country in lieu of anything else.
The latest Civey poll which has a much larger sample shows CDU on 27, SDP on 22, Green on 18.5, AfD on 13, FDP on 8 and Linke on 7.5 which gets them all into the Landtag. I think CDU has notched a point or two off the floor and the CSU result in Bavaria was better than many polls suggested so I suspect CDU may be nearer 30% on Sunday with the SPD and Greens around 20 each.
West Germany used migrant labour extensively in the 60s and 70s just as we did but whereas our migrant labourers were from former Commonwealth countries and had rights to settle, the West German gastarbeiter from Turkey and Yugoslavia had very limited rights of residence and basically could only stay as long as their work permit allowed - it's a model which could be adopted for the UK's post-EU immigration policy in theory.
As others have said, politics abhors a vacuum and if the two large parties become the Government, something will become the Opposition and that seems to be the Greens and Alternativ and to a lesser extent Linke and the FPD. Had the "Jamaica" coalition option worked after the last Bundestag election, I suspect the SPD would be in a much stronger position now but the splintering of parties hasn't brought about a consequential widening of options.
0 -
Excellent article, @Alanbrooke.0
-
Well he's compared some leavers to members of suicide cults and so forth... as is his right to do so.Cyclefree said:
@AlastairMeeks is right. Calling people traitors, saboteurs, quislings and the rest has been a very depressing and all too common response by some pro-Brexiteers. Unacceptable.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
People are entitled to disagree strongly with a policy without being labelled as unpatriotic or a traitor. We can all have different views about what is best for the country.
There is a respectable case for saying that Britain and the EU are not a good fit and that maybe a different arrangement should be found. Mr Meeks himself is not the EU’s biggest fan. But that has not been the case put by the Ultra-Brexiteers who at times have made it sound as if we are or should be practically at war with our neighbours. It has utterly ruined and demeaned their case.0 -
I don’t like to think what a building would look like if we had to vote on its design at each stage of construction!kingbongo said:
One day economists, like software engineers, will have to go through the painful process of realising they are not a branch of physics or production engineering.Nemtynakht said:
Unfortunately the rules Hartford comes up with are impossible to achieve in a political arena, so really the thrust of the article should be that it would be useful if it were possible to run Brexit like a large mega construction project, but politics precludes this - not quite so snappy.Foxy said:
There is an interesting piece in the FT today on Brexit as an example of how not to do large project management, comparing it to Sydney Opera House.OldKingCole said:
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next,Foxy said:
snip ..Jonathan said:The most important question in elections is ‘who do I vote for to kick out the government’. If there isn’t a clear answer to that question you have to wonder how democratic your system is. With 5 years of coalition, Germany has muddied that question.
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next, in Germany if the CDU/SPD collapses there is no coherent government that can be formed.
I see this as an aspect of the fragmentation of social solidarity. A culture of individualism emerging from sixties counterculture has shredded allegiences to church, unions, political parties, civic pride and nation. It is not easy to return there.
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1055702066193149952?s=19
My old boss, the lovely Charles Hoare, reflected on this problem when he claimed he had wasted over 20 years of his life on formal methods and Z - now I teach sociolotechnical design and ethnomethodology to my requirements engineering students because large human-centred systems aren't like buildings, production lines etc and political systems least of all.
Yes complex systems are just that 'systems' but that doesn't mean they are predictable, rational or operate in a deterministic fashion. The Sydney opera house worked because Arne Jacobsen was a great architect and there was good quality project control but at no point did Arne say 'you know what, I think it should be square, with corinthian columns"
0 -
Yes. Now. Not in 2004. For 7 years. See my post upthread. Eastern Europeans had a much greater moral call on Germany than Afghans or Syrians or Pakistanis smuggled by people smugglers.Roger said:
Germany is full of Poles! Lines of them looking for work. They've been around for years. They employ them where they can. Lots of the extras in the ad I just posted are Poles.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
If you are going to uphold as a sacred principle FoM within an area you need to have secure borders around that area. Merkel, unilaterally and stupidly, breached that and has caused problems for neighbouring countries and her own. One of the results has been borders and walls being rebuilt within Europe and Brexit.0 -
we have Polish builders doing up our house, they drive home at the weekend - no intention of moving to Denmark, just do all their business in English.Alanbrooke said:
There arent 2m Poles unless you get to count ethnic Germany from the old German East.;Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
Though Germany is now taking in more people from its neighbours as it starts to face labour shortage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Foreign_nationals_in_Germany
Poles generally are now more inclined to stay at home as their economy has made progress and average wages are now about 70% of the EU average.0 -
They're Colonel Blimps and it's the way Colonel blimps behave! You can't laud them for covering their houses with flags of St George reading the Sun driving white vans being fat and living in hartlepool and castigate them for believing that other behaviour is unpatriotic.Cyclefree said:
@AlastairMeeks is right. Calling people traitors, saboteurs, quislings and the rest has been a very depressing and all too common response by some pro-Brexiteers. Unacceptable.Pulpstar said:
Hmm I'd say that is more 'robust' debate, which gets dished out on both sides. I don't recall Jenkyns (Who was dire last night!), Farage or Johnson trying to deplatform/censor anyone recently. The twitter culture wars don't really seem to feature Brexit much either right now to be fair, it's a UK Gov't/population problem.AlastairMeeks said:
You are kidding, right? Any suggestion that Brexit might pose difficulties gets a swarm of nutnuts screaming that the questioner is a traitor or quisling.MaxPB said:I have to say I'm still surprised as the welcome censorship seems to be getting on the left. Is it any wonder that the right have become the defenders of free speech.
People are entitled to disagree strongly with a policy without being labelled as unpatriotic or a traitor. We can all have different views about what is best for the country.
There is a respectable case for saying that Britain and the EU are not a good fit and that maybe a different arrangement should be found. Mr Meeks himself is not the EU’s biggest fan. But that has not been the case put by the Ultra-Brexiteers who at times have made it sound as if we are or should be practically at war with our neighbours. It has utterly ruined and demeaned their case.0 -
Particularly Jess. I wasn't sure who she promised to stab in the front.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1054810489434398720
This was quite interesting.
It is also a good deal less violent than some of the stuff being put out about the "huntress" (modify a la Foreign Secretary) by those peaceful animal-lovers.0 -
Germany is an excellent example of EU cakeatery. As with so many things (football, beer), the Germans are better at it than the British.geoffw said:
The very definition of a non-optimal currency area.Alanbrooke said:
wrt earlier comment, yes looking forward Germany is facing some headwinds particularly in the car industry. However theyve had several years of steady growth, the government is reporting record income and for a high wage economy unemployment is admirably low.another_richard said:
The German economic model is dependent upon other countries not being like Germany.John_M said:
All the other Euro countries have to do is be more German. How hard can it be?DavidL said:geoffw said:
Within the Club it's a form of beggar-thy-neighbour policy.DavidL said:TheKitchenCabinet said:
Philippe Legrain's book "European Spring" has an excellent chapter on Germany, which highlights how domestic consumption is so weak because of their historic labour reforms and that the German government has focused on export growth.DavidL said:
I agree that they have hit a wall fairly hard in the last few months but their government has ample fiscal flexibility to boost domestic demand. If the government wasn’t semi paralysed they might have acted already.another_richard said:Thanks for the articles AB.
But the German economy really isn't 'booming'.
Retail sales are up 1.4% per year but down 0.1% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9282435/4-03102018-AP-EN.pdf/5efc10b6-de94-4d1a-9023-8f16b2db610a
Industrial production is down 0.5% on the year and down 2.3% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9298852/4-12102018-AP-EN.pdf/7a4a12eb-8d24-4e1e-96b4-e39a32d6784d
And construction output is up 2.2% on the year but down 2.4% over the last three months
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9307218/4-17102018-BP-EN.pdf/f0191114-87b2-47a6-9e92-236470a0fac0
The latest PMIs and business confidence surveys are none too pretty either.
Ironic isn't it.
As you point out most of this has been at the expense of other European countries I saw recently the Euro is overvalues by 9% if you are Italian and undervalued by 11% if you are German. You can see the impact on the two economies.0 -
Fascinating stuff. The point about the Greens and the AfD is very important in my view. Here in the UK we are obsessed by the rise of the far-right to such an extent that we tend not to see the bigger picture, which is that in most countries in the old EU, at least, the far right is utterly rejected by most people. Figures like Wilders and Le Pen, and parties like the AfD and the Sweden Democrats, get huge amounts of attention, even though they are likely never to get close to power. Meanwhile, parties like the Greens - which could find themselves in government - quietly get on with building their electoral bases. It's almost as if the Brits want to believe that the Nazis are alive and well and about to take charge again on the other side of the Channel.
Down in Spain - as in Portugal - it is actually the left which is in the ascendant. The latest opinion polling has PSOE and Podemos combined on close to 50% of the vote, which is 10 points higher than PP and Cs combined. That is a major change over the course of this year. The Catalan separatists, meanwhile, are falling out among themselves. Interesting times.0 -
Because they're German and not Welsh?DavidL said:
Well, why would you look at the girls when you have a goat?geoffw said:Here is the first stanza of Ralf Bendix's 1964 song which encapsulates the German attitude to life. Almost every line is an illustration of Germany's problems for itself and its neighbours.
Schaffe, schaffe Häusle baue
und ned nach de Mädle schaue
Und wenn unser Häusle steht,
dann gibt's noch keine Ruh'
denn dann sparen wir, dann sparen wir
für 'ne Ziege und 'ne Kuh
Work, work to build a house
and don't look at the girls.
And when our house is built,
then there is no rest
because then we save, then we save
for a goat and a cow.0 -
Emphasis addedCyclefree said:
Yes. Now. Not in 2004. For 7 years. See my post upthread. Eastern Europeans had a much greater moral call on Germany than Afghans or Syrians or Pakistanis smuggled by people smugglers.Roger said:
Germany is full of Poles! Lines of them looking for work. They've been around for years. They employ them where they can. Lots of the extras in the ad I just posted are Poles.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
If you are going to uphold as a sacred principle FoM within an area you need to have secure borders around that area. Merkel, unilaterally and stupidly, breached that and has caused problems for neighbouring countries and her own. One of the results has been borders and walls being rebuilt within Europe and Brexit.
Good fences make good neighbours. © Robert Frost0 -
Good post. Knowledge is acquired during the process of creation. Specifying a software system formally is at least as hard as implementing it and just as error prone and then you have to translate from the model to the implementation. A physical system is expensive to modify so formal design and specification is necessary - but it is wise to assume errors will be made and corrections will be required.kingbongo said:
One day economists, like software engineers, will have to go through the painful process of realising they are not a branch of physics or production engineering.Nemtynakht said:
Unfortunately the rules Hartford comes up with are impossible to achieve in a political arena, so really the thrust of the article should be that it would be useful if it were possible to run Brexit like a large mega construction project, but politics precludes this - not quite so snappy.Foxy said:
There is an interesting piece in the FT today on Brexit as an example of how not to do large project management, comparing it to Sydney Opera House.OldKingCole said:
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next,Foxy said:
snip ..Jonathan said:The most important question in elections is ‘who do I vote for to kick out the government’. If there isn’t a clear answer to that question you have to wonder how democratic your system is. With 5 years of coalition, Germany has muddied that question.
Just as if Brexit collapses, there is no consensus on what happens next, in Germany if the CDU/SPD collapses there is no coherent government that can be formed.
I see this as an aspect of the fragmentation of social solidarity. A culture of individualism emerging from sixties counterculture has shredded allegiences to church, unions, political parties, civic pride and nation. It is not easy to return there.
https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1055702066193149952?s=19
My old boss, the lovely Charles Hoare, reflected on this problem when he claimed he had wasted over 20 years of his life on formal methods and Z - now I teach sociolotechnical design and ethnomethodology to my requirements engineering students because large human-centred systems aren't like buildings, production lines etc and political systems least of all.
Yes complex systems are just that 'systems' but that doesn't mean they are predictable, rational or operate in a deterministic fashion. The Sydney opera house worked because Arne Jacobsen was a great architect and there was good quality project control but at no point did Arne say 'you know what, I think it should be square, with corinthian columns"0 -
Part of the reason that there are so many Poles here is that we were unusual in not applying the transition controls. The projection on only a few tens of thousands coming was based on the rest of Europe also not applying transition controls.Cyclefree said:
I was referring to their decision not to let them have free movement in 2004. That seemed to me then, and now, to be a shabby decision (and the British decision to do the opposite an honourable one) quite at odds with @Roger’s claim about what Germans thought important.Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
In my experience though, it is not the Poles that people object to, but non EU migrants who bring much more obvious cultural change to communities.0 -
I found your post on spanish polls really interesting. I thought earlier this year the PSOE was heading down the same route as the socialists in France, but that summer revival is impressive. It shows there can be life in some of the old dogs.SouthamObserver said:Fascinating stuff. The point about the Greens and the AfD is very important in my view. Here in the UK we are obsessed by the rise of the far-right to such an extent that we tend not to see the bigger picture, which is that in most countries in the old EU, at least, the far right is utterly rejected by most people. Figures like Wilders and Le Pen, and parties like the AfD and the Sweden Democrats, get huge amounts of attention, even though they are likely never to get close to power. Meanwhile, parties like the Greens - which could find themselves in government - quietly get on with building their electoral bases. It's almost as if the Brits want to believe that the Nazis are alive and well and about to take charge again on the other side of the Channel.
Down in Spain - as in Portugal - it is actually the left which is in the ascendant. The latest opinion polling has PSOE and Podemos combined on close to 50% of the vote, which is 10 points higher than PP and Cs combined. That is a major change over the course of this year. The Catalan separatists, meanwhile, are falling out among themselves. Interesting times.0 -
Paging @Charles !kingbongo said:
My old boss, the lovely Charles Hoare, reflected on this problem when he claimed he had wasted over 20 years of his life on formal methods and Z - now I teach sociolotechnical design and ethnomethodology to my requirements engineering students because large human-centred systems aren't like buildings, production lines etc and political systems least of all.0 -
Labour shortages? What about all those highly skilled Middle Eastern refugees? Have they used up all their skills already?Alanbrooke said:
There arent 2m Poles unless you get to count ethnic Germany from the old German East.;Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
Though Germany is now taking in more people from its neighbours as it starts to face labour shortage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Foreign_nationals_in_Germany
Poles generally are now more inclined to stay at home as their economy has made progress and average wages are now about 70% of the EU average.0 -
I quite agree and have made the same point myself. Brexit is not an answer to that concern. May indeed exacerbate it.Foxy said:
Part of the reason that there are so many Poles here is that we were unusual in not applying the transition controls. The projection on only a few tens of thousands coming was based on the rest of Europe also not applying transition controls.Cyclefree said:
I was referring to their decision not to let them have free movement in 2004. That seemed to me then, and now, to be a shabby decision (and the British decision to do the opposite an honourable one) quite at odds with @Roger’s claim about what Germans thought important.Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
In my experience though, it is not the Poles that people object to, but non EU migrants who bring much more obvious cultural change to communities.0 -
I think theyre having a few issues. I read one report saying only about 10% are finding employment. Not speaking German is probably the biggest impediment.Cyclefree said:
Labour shortages? What about all those highly skilled Middle Eastern refugees? Have they used up all their skills already?Alanbrooke said:
There arent 2m Poles unless you get to count ethnic Germany from the old German East.;Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
Though Germany is now taking in more people from its neighbours as it starts to face labour shortage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Foreign_nationals_in_Germany
Poles generally are now more inclined to stay at home as their economy has made progress and average wages are now about 70% of the EU average.0 -
May has indeed exacerbated it with her fixation on free movement.Cyclefree said:
I quite agree and have made the same point myself. Brexit is not an answer to that concern. May indeed exacerbate it.Foxy said:
Part of the reason that there are so many Poles here is that we were unusual in not applying the transition controls. The projection on only a few tens of thousands coming was based on the rest of Europe also not applying transition controls.Cyclefree said:
I was referring to their decision not to let them have free movement in 2004. That seemed to me then, and now, to be a shabby decision (and the British decision to do the opposite an honourable one) quite at odds with @Roger’s claim about what Germans thought important.Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
In my experience though, it is not the Poles that people object to, but non EU migrants who bring much more obvious cultural change to communities.
0 -
I think remainers and Labour should try and get Jenkyns on the TV as much as possible.0
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It's hard to say who's "far right" these days. Golden Dawn and Jobbik, obviously, but do parties like Law & Justice, Lega, Danish Peoples' Party, FPO, Slovak Social Democrats, all of whom are in government, or supportive of the government, count as far right?SouthamObserver said:Fascinating stuff. The point about the Greens and the AfD is very important in my view. Here in the UK we are obsessed by the rise of the far-right to such an extent that we tend not to see the bigger picture, which is that in most countries in the old EU, at least, the far right is utterly rejected by most people. Figures like Wilders and Le Pen, and parties like the AfD and the Sweden Democrats, get huge amounts of attention, even though they are likely never to get close to power. Meanwhile, parties like the Greens - which could find themselves in government - quietly get on with building their electoral bases. It's almost as if the Brits want to believe that the Nazis are alive and well and about to take charge again on the other side of the Channel.
Down in Spain - as in Portugal - it is actually the left which is in the ascendant. The latest opinion polling has PSOE and Podemos combined on close to 50% of the vote, which is 10 points higher than PP and Cs combined. That is a major change over the course of this year. The Catalan separatists, meanwhile, are falling out among themselves. Interesting times.0 -
On the point about Angela Merkel throwing open Germany's borders, I think this was indeed an absolutely key mistake. Not only has it caused immense problems in Germany itself, and in the neighbouring EU countries, it was also a significant factor in the Leave vote here, because the Leave campaign were able (dishonestly, admittedly) to play on it as meaning the UK would be open eventually to such high numbers of migrants via the EU. Although we can never know for sure, my hunch is that the impression in the UK of Merkel's action was sufficient to tip the balance* in the referendum.
It's also worth recalling the circumstances: this was Angela Merkel's emotional response to a horrifying picture of a dead child being lifted out of the sea. The emotion and compassion are understandable and commendable, but public policy has to look at the whole picture and at the realistic consequences of decisions. In this case it's likely that more children died as a result of the policy, and it's certain that longer-term consequences for Germany and neighbouring countries are dire.
It was, in other words, a disastrous misjudgement by Angela Merkel. It also wasn't the only one: her sudden decision to shut down safe, clean nuclear power generation at short notice after the Fukushima disaster was similarly impulsive and irrational, boosting dependence on Russian gas and on extremely polluting coal-fired generation.
She really hasn't been the safe pair of hands which one might have expected.
* I believe that the referendum would also have gone the other way if Labour hadn't gone AWOL under Corbyn. - two completely unpredictable developments both of which we needed to get to 52%.0 -
Great: unemployed young men (90% unemployed) from a very different culture at loose in your society. What could possibly go wrong?Alanbrooke said:
I think theyre having a few issues. I read one report saying only about 10% are finding employment. Not speaking German is probably the biggest impediment.Cyclefree said:
Labour shortages? What about all those highly skilled Middle Eastern refugees? Have they used up all their skills already?Alanbrooke said:
There arent 2m Poles unless you get to count ethnic Germany from the old German East.;Foxy said:
There are about 2 million Poes in Germany, the biggest part of their diaspora.Cyclefree said:
So why did Germans not feel it very important to let in Poles and other East Europeans to come and live and work in Germany? If there was one part of the world to which Germany owed a moral obligation it was Eastern Europe. Their guilt and sense of honour and of wanting to do the right thing seems rather limited and self-interested, frankly.Roger said:A very good article again Alanbrooke.
At first I thought you were heading down the PB route of saying Merkel and Germany were going to Hell in a handcart because Merkel let in too many immigrants and (if we're lucky) they'd take the EU down with them. Fortunately the second half of your excellent piece veered in a different direction.
The Germans due to their past have a different attitude towards immigrants than we do. It wasn't just Merkel who woke up one morning and decided to invite in a lot of refugees. It was felt by most Germans (certainly in the old West) to be the right thing to do. Someting very important to most Germans.
Though Germany is now taking in more people from its neighbours as it starts to face labour shortage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Foreign_nationals_in_Germany
Poles generally are now more inclined to stay at home as their economy has made progress and average wages are now about 70% of the EU average.0 -
The first reaction was emotionally understandable even if it hasn't worked.Richard_Nabavi said:On the point about Angela Merkel throwing open Germany's borders, I think this was indeed an absolutely key mistake. Not only has it caused immense problems in Germany itself, and in the neighbouring EU countries, it was also a significant factor in the Leave vote here, because the Leave campaign were able (dishonestly, admittedly) to play on it as meaning the UK would be open eventually to such high numbers of migrants via the EU. Although we can never know for sure, my hunch is that the impression in the UK of Merkel's action was sufficient to tip the balance* in the referendum.
It's also worth recalling the circumstances: this was Angela Merkel's emotional response to a horrifying picture of a dead child being lifted out of the sea. The emotion and compassion are understandable and commendable, but public policy has to look at the whole picture and at the realistic consequences of decisions. In this case it's likely that more children died as a result of the policy, and it's certain that longer-term consequences for Germany and neighbouring countries are dire.
It was, in other words, a disastrous misjudgement by Angela Merkel. It also wasn't the only one: her sudden decision to shut down safe, clean nuclear power generation at short notice after the Fukushima disaster was similarly impulsive and irrational, boosting dependence on Russian gas and on extremely polluting coal-fired generation.
She really hasn't been the safe pair of hands which one might have expected.
* I believe that the referendum would also have gone the other way if Labour hadn't gone AWOL under Corbyn. - two completely unpredictable developments both of which we needed to get to 52%.
The second was just plain bonkers. Like Germany has a major history of tsunamis!0 -
Agree with all of that, excpet that Leave dishonestly used it to suggest that the UK could have been exposed to receiving these same migrants eventually. Given Merkel had already ripped up the EU rulebook to get them into the EU, it was a reasonable concern that she would seek to disperse them around the EU (once she discovered that 90% of them were not getting employment in Germany)...Richard_Nabavi said:On the point about Angela Merkel throwing open Germany's borders, I think this was indeed an absolutely key mistake. Not only has it caused immense problems in Germany itself, and in the neighbouring EU countries, it was also a significant factor in the Leave vote here, because the Leave campaign were able (dishonestly, admittedly) to play on it as meaning the UK would be open eventually to such high numbers of migrants via the EU. Although we can never know for sure, my hunch is that the impression in the UK of Merkel's action was sufficient to tip the balance* in the referendum.
It's also worth recalling the circumstances: this was Angela Merkel's emotional response to a horrifying picture of a dead child being lifted out of the sea. The emotion and compassion are understandable and commendable, but public policy has to look at the whole picture and at the realistic consequences of decisions. In this case it's likely that more children died as a result of the policy, and it's certain that longer-term consequences for Germany and neighbouring countries are dire.
It was, in other words, a disastrous misjudgement by Angela Merkel. It also wasn't the only one: her sudden decision to shut down safe, clean nuclear power generation at short notice after the Fukushima disaster was similarly impulsive and irrational, boosting dependence on Russian gas and on extremely polluting coal-fired generation.
She really hasn't been the safe pair of hands which one might have expected.
* I believe that the referendum would also have gone the other way if Labour hadn't gone AWOL under Corbyn. - two completely unpredictable developments both of which we needed to get to 52%.
I certainly believe it tipped the balance on the Referendum. 3 in a hundred voters worried about its consequences might even be a tad low....0 -
As Goodwin keeps reminding us, we must deferentiate between Far Right fascists and Populist.Sean_F said:
It's hard to say who's "far right" these days. Golden Dawn and Jobbik, obviously, but do parties like Law & Justice, Lega, Danish Peoples' Party, FPO, Slovak Social Democrats, all of whom are in government, or supportive of the government, count as far right?SouthamObserver said:Fascinating stuff. The point about the Greens and the AfD is very important in my view. Here in the UK we are obsessed by the rise of the far-right to such an extent that we tend not to see the bigger picture, which is that in most countries in the old EU, at least, the far right is utterly rejected by most people. Figures like Wilders and Le Pen, and parties like the AfD and the Sweden Democrats, get huge amounts of attention, even though they are likely never to get close to power. Meanwhile, parties like the Greens - which could find themselves in government - quietly get on with building their electoral bases. It's almost as if the Brits want to believe that the Nazis are alive and well and about to take charge again on the other side of the Channel.
Down in Spain - as in Portugal - it is actually the left which is in the ascendant. The latest opinion polling has PSOE and Podemos combined on close to 50% of the vote, which is 10 points higher than PP and Cs combined. That is a major change over the course of this year. The Catalan separatists, meanwhile, are falling out among themselves. Interesting times.0 -
Tbf there's an embarrassment of riches in that particular market: Bridgen, Mogg, IDS, Jenkin, Grayling, Bone, Davies, Dorries, Fysh, Jackson, Kawczynski, Thomson etc, etc, etc, etc.Pulpstar said:I think remainers and Labour should try and get Jenkyns on the TV as much as possible.
All guaranteed to turn off centrists, mild Remainers and undecided switherers.0 -
We should also look pretty closely at parties with histories of far right Fascism that have rebranded as 'Populist'.rottenborough said:
As Goodwin keeps reminding us, we must deferentiate between Far Right fascists and Populist.Sean_F said:
It's hard to say who's "far right" these days. Golden Dawn and Jobbik, obviously, but do parties like Law & Justice, Lega, Danish Peoples' Party, FPO, Slovak Social Democrats, all of whom are in government, or supportive of the government, count as far right?SouthamObserver said:Fascinating stuff. The point about the Greens and the AfD is very important in my view. Here in the UK we are obsessed by the rise of the far-right to such an extent that we tend not to see the bigger picture, which is that in most countries in the old EU, at least, the far right is utterly rejected by most people. Figures like Wilders and Le Pen, and parties like the AfD and the Sweden Democrats, get huge amounts of attention, even though they are likely never to get close to power. Meanwhile, parties like the Greens - which could find themselves in government - quietly get on with building their electoral bases. It's almost as if the Brits want to believe that the Nazis are alive and well and about to take charge again on the other side of the Channel.
Down in Spain - as in Portugal - it is actually the left which is in the ascendant. The latest opinion polling has PSOE and Podemos combined on close to 50% of the vote, which is 10 points higher than PP and Cs combined. That is a major change over the course of this year. The Catalan separatists, meanwhile, are falling out among themselves. Interesting times.0
