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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Will any betting company be so bold as to go 1-2 Labour xD ?!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,654

    if you think sheep are stupid try pheasants
    The only stupid species is ours.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Will the winner of Newport West immediately rush to ~ 20-1 for the Labour leadership ?!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    TOPPING said:

    Not really. The news story is that people are outraged that she has killed a sheep and is not ashamed or apologetic about it.
    Yes, but they're only outraged because it's odd. They wouldn't be outraged if it was a deer, and it's not like sheep are critically endangered.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Newport West was estimated at 54% Leave so basically in line with the country. It was a Con target in 2017 but Paul Flynn secured a swing of c. 2% in his favour, again in line with the country.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    Like France we should have just ignored the rules when it suited us instead of trying to renegotiate them, wed still be in the EU if we had.
    There's probably not a lot that the EU can do if a large member State (eg Italy) decides to break the rules.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    TOPPING said:

    Not really. The news story is that people are outraged that she has killed a sheep and is not ashamed or apologetic about it.
    It's more that they're laughing at her for boasting about it.
  • TOPPING said:

    Not really. The news story is that people are outraged that she has killed a sheep and is not ashamed or apologetic about it.
    Some people can't tell the sheep from the goats.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739
    Cyclefree said:

    There is and was then a very strong case for having a long period of stability in the EU to bed down the changes that had been made not this endless rush for more measures, more treaties, more directives, more integration etc. If you push the reluctant where they don't want to go, eventually they push back. A period of stability might have helped get even the most reluctant more used to the changes that had already been made.

    There hasn't been a major new European treaty in the entire time Angela Merkel has been in power. I think your position is closer to the reality of what's happened than you realise.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    edited October 2018
    Only a Lab majority of 5,658

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    And as Paul Flynn has held the seat since 1987 some of that could be a personal vote for him.

    Might actually be a competitive by election for once...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol, Labour leadership market has 71 runners that can be laid at 1000 or less !

    To be fair, for most of 2010-15, Corbyn would not have been in the top 71 runners as Next Lab leader.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    Cyclefree said:

    It's more that they're laughing at her for boasting about it.
    Yes, a sheep isn't really much of a challenge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    GIN1138 said:

    Only a Lab majority of 5,658

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    And as Paul Flynn has held the seat since 1987 some of that could be a personal vote for him.

    Might actually be a competitive by election for once...
    It'd be funny if Labour lost, but they won't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,453
    TOPPING said:

    Not really. The news story is that people are outraged that she has killed a sheep and is not ashamed or apologetic about it.
    *as many of the same outraged people wander off to have Shepherd's Pie for dinner....*
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,487

    Once again you descend into Brexit madness. "Brussels et al" want Britain to stay because the EU is collectively stronger the bigger the collective, and that since Britain is one of the larger European countries, it is better to have it as part of that collective. Only monomaniac Leavers think that the EU is some kind of racket for power-crazed Belgians.
    No, the EU want us in because:

    A) the bicycle principle, under which Europe only advances, is what they count on to gain the unquestioning acquiescence of Europeans to further power grabs
    B) they are terrified we might make a success of it, hence their determination to make us pay, even when agreements might be win-win
    C) they will miss picking our pockets of more than £10 billion/year.

    I used to do a lot of business in Brussels. These worries aren't hard to get out of them after a beer or two.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    It has led to questioning about what they might have done differently, and they've learnt that if you offer special deals it will never be enough, so it's better not to do it at all.

    As Macron said, "I think that Europe has made a mistake negotiating the inter-governmental accord [the “special status” deal David Cameron struck with the EU in February last year]. It created a precedent, which is that a single state can twist the European debate to its own interests. Cameron was toying with Europe and we agreed to go along with it, which was a big mistake."
    Had the EU shown even less flexibility to Cameron, there's a good chance that he would have been forced to either back Leave or, more likely, been ousted and replaced with a Leaver - Boris, most obviously, prior to the referendum. Leave, with the backing of the PM, government and Tory Party (which would have boosted the allowed Leave campaign spend by millions), would then have won a very comfortable victory. After which, it'd have all gone a bit wrong.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Cyclefree said:

    You're being unkind to sheep. In Cumbria, they survive the most ferocious winters out on the fells. When even "Miss-I-am-a-good-shot-look-at-my-selfie-of-me-shooting-a-barn-door" will be safely tucked up inside.
    I'm not saying they aren't hardy. I'm saying the docile beasts are dumber than a bag of rocks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,453
    Pulpstar said:

    It'd be funny if Labour lost, but they won't.
    Depends how hard-line Corbynista their candidate. Somebody with some "interesting" social media outbursts in their past, for example....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739

    Had the EU shown even less flexibility to Cameron, there's a good chance that he would have been forced to either back Leave or, more likely, been ousted and replaced with a Leaver - Boris, most obviously, prior to the referendum. Leave, with the backing of the PM, government and Tory Party (which would have boosted the allowed Leave campaign spend by millions), would then have won a very comfortable victory. After which, it'd have all gone a bit wrong.
    Brexit wouldn't have been any more deliverable just because Cameron was backing it. The same delusions would have hit the same reality.

    You also shouldn't make assumptions about which way the vote would have gone. It's perfectly possible that having Cameron backing Leave would have led to a Remain win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    *as many of the same outraged people wander off to have Shepherd's Pie for dinner....*
    He's a very unlucky ram, unlike his ewe sister folk he'd be destined for many years of 'tupping' ahead and probably not headed for a shepherd's pie ;(. Perhaps his shagging days were behind him tho.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,694

    *as many of the same outraged people wander off to have Shepherd's Pie for dinner....*
    Isn't that similar to the earlier (yesterday's?) question of where does milk come from..
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    edited October 2018

    There hasn't been a major new European treaty in the entire time Angela Merkel has been in power. I think your position is closer to the reality of what's happened than you realise.
    Fair point. There is perhaps a reluctance amongst legislators to look at what they've enacted and see whether it has achieved what it set out to so, have there been unintended consequences, are there things that need to be changed or tweaked etc. That applies here but also at the EU level. The effects of Maastricht, even more than Lisbon, are still being worked through. Was there any discussion at the EU level about migration patterns across Europe from within the EU, about what stresses this might cause, about how these might be addressed etc? Or was this, ironically, just left to national governments to sort out? FoM was introduced and has become an article in faith. But even articles of faith need questioning and their consequences need dealing with. Just saying: "This is how it is. It can never change" may be suitable for a Pope but it is not sensible politics.

    I accept of course that the euro's introduction and its consequences used up a lot of bandwidth.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    Alistair said:

    I'm not saying they aren't hardy. I'm saying the docile beasts are dumber than a bag of rocks.
    To be fair, we have bred stupidity into them! they are amongst the most longstanding domesticated livestock.

    Wild sheep and goats can be quite canny.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,286


    You also shouldn't make assumptions about which way the vote would have gone. It's perfectly possible that having Cameron backing Leave would have led to a Remain win.

    All the chavs who voted leave to spite him would have voted remain for the same reason.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    He's a very unlucky ram, unlike his ewe sister folk he'd be destined for many years of 'tupping' ahead and probably not headed for a shepherd's pie ;(. Perhaps his shagging days were behind him tho.
    I wonder how much the brave hunter paid for the privilege.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    Dura_Ace said:

    All the chavs who voted leave to spite him would have voted remain for the same reason.
    Probably more Labour voters would have backed Remain, but Conservatives would have gone for more heavily for Leave.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Fishing said:

    No, the EU want us in because:

    A) the bicycle principle, under which Europe only advances, is what they count on to gain the unquestioning acquiescence of Europeans to further power grabs
    B) they are terrified we might make a success of it, hence their determination to make us pay, even when agreements might be win-win
    C) they will miss picking our pockets of more than £10 billion/year.

    I used to do a lot of business in Brussels. These worries aren't hard to get out of them after a beer or two.
    You drink with the wrong people. The GDP of the EU is something like £14.5 trillion. A contribution of £350 million a week or whatever figure you want to make up is loose change in that context.

    I don't think anyone is terrified that Britain is going to make a success of Brexit. Pity mixed with contempt is more how it's being viewed from abroad.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    Christ! My Herod hat is on. Next door's baby started crying at 4:30 am. For several hours. And is now crying again.

    Can't she take it for a damn walk?


    Grrr.......
  • Morning all. I've been doing other things since yesterday afternoon. Do we still have a government?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,454
    Mr. F, agree, and more floating voters would've gone for Leave.

    Suspect the result would've been significantly better for Leave, but the party political aspect more ramped up.
  • You drink with the wrong people. The GDP of the EU is something like £14.5 trillion. A contribution of £350 million a week or whatever figure you want to make up is loose change in that context.

    That's not what the Germans, who will be paying most of it, think:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1035684/brexit-news-germany-uk-eu-budget-contribution
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    Mr. F, agree, and more floating voters would've gone for Leave.

    Suspect the result would've been significantly better for Leave, but the party political aspect more ramped up.

    There's no way that 35-40% of Conservatives would have backed Remain if Cameron had supported Leave.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633

    You drink with the wrong people. The GDP of the EU is something like £14.5 trillion. A contribution of £350 million a week or whatever figure you want to make up is loose change in that context.

    I don't think anyone is terrified that Britain is going to make a success of Brexit. Pity mixed with contempt is more how it's being viewed from abroad.
    Funnily enough, I think that only if Brexit sort of works or is not a complete disaster will Britain be likely to rejoin and be welcomed back in. Contrary, I know, to the general view on here.

    I have a half-written thread header explaining why. But it might turn out to be rubbish.

    Anyway off to find some earplugs.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Morning all. I've been doing other things since yesterday afternoon. Do we still have a government?

    Sure do, not a dry eye in the house.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1055151169360797698
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    That's not what the Germans, who will be paying most of it, think:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1035684/brexit-news-germany-uk-eu-budget-contribution
    He who calls the tune pays the piper, I'd have thought.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    He who calls the tune pays the piper, I'd have thought.
    Thankfully we wont have to pay to listen to the dreadful dirge any longer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Cyclefree said:

    Christ! My Herod hat is on. Next door's baby started crying at 4:30 am. For several hours. And is now crying again.

    Can't she take it for a damn walk?


    Grrr.......

    We've all seen how that ends...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cry_(2018_TV_series)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Alistair said:

    I wonder how much the brave hunter paid for the privilege.
    The ram reminds me of Boris for some reason - a more handsome, dignified and altogether better beast though.
  • He who calls the tune pays the piper, I'd have thought.

    Well, yes. One of the underexplored aspects of this is the extent to which the EU budget will be reformed if and when the UK contributions fall off. I expect those paying the piper are going to be a lot more choosy about what tunes they'll pay for, which might not be to the taste of the olive-belt and Visegrads.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Pulpstar said:

    Sure do, not a dry eye in the house.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1055151169360797698
    Classy by Rudd.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    The ram reminds me of Boris for some reason - a more handsome, dignified and altogether better beast though.

    Talking of Boris, I heard John McDonell on Radio 4 this morning, and it struck me that (don't laugh!) he's remarkably similar to Boris in the way he responds to questions about the practicality of what he proposes. All practical issues are just waved away with generalities, and false figures used in a similar way: instead of £350m a week, we have £13.8bn of dividends paid to water-company shareholders, and instead of the sunlit uplands of Brexit, we have the sunlit uplands of nationalised industries.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sure do, not a dry eye in the house.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1055151169360797698
    In fairness, Theresa's played an absolute blinder this week. The ERG and other malcontents have been humiliated and Brady, with his silly collection of chippy letters, looks impotent. She's even got the Daily Mail eating out of the palm of her hand. What a gal!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Talking of Boris, I heard John McDonell on Radio 4 this morning, and it struck me that (don't laugh!) he's remarkably similar to Boris in the way he responds to questions about the practicality of what he proposes. All practical issues are just waved away with generalities, and false figures used in a similar way: instead of £350m a week, we have £13.8bn of dividends paid to water-company shareholders, and insstead of the sunlit uplands of Brexit, we have the sunlit uplands of nationalised industries.
    One thing I always need to remind myself about McDonnell when thinking of any succession is that he is only two years younger than Corbyn.
  • Pulpstar said:

    One thing I always need to remind myself about McDonnell when thinking of any succession is that he is only two years younger than Corbyn.
    A lot more on the ball, though.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    In fairness, Theresa's played an absolute blinder this week. The ERG and other malcontents have been humiliated and Brady, with his silly collection of chippy letters, looks impotent. She's even got the Daily Mail eating out of the palm of her hand. What a gal!
    Pretty much. She's ridden her way out of the 'killing window', for now.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780

    There hasn't been a major new European treaty in the entire time Angela Merkel has been in power. I think your position is closer to the reality of what's happened than you realise.
    Merkel became chancellor in 2005, Lisbon was signed in 2007.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Brady, with his silly collection of chippy letters, looks impotent.

    Disagree on Brady, he's doing his job well as 22 chair.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,739

    Merkel became chancellor in 2005, Lisbon was signed in 2007.
    Yes but that was a reworking of the European Constitution that had been negotiated before she became Chancellor.
  • Like France we should have just ignored the rules when it suited us instead of trying to renegotiate them, wed still be in the EU if we had.
    If the government had tried that someone would have taken them to court and they would have lost: see “rule of law” in the above list of benifits we bought to the EU.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780

    Yes but that was a reworking of the European Constitution that had been negotiated before she became Chancellor.
    which of course made future treaties largely unnecessary
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780

    If the government had tried that someone would have taken them to court and they would have lost: see “rule of law” in the above list of benifits we bought to the EU.
    germany suffered nothing when it broke the euro deficit rule, France when it illegally banned british beef.

    Its pointless sticking to rules when they are not enforced.
  • You drink with the wrong people. The GDP of the EU is something like £14.5 trillion. A contribution of £350 million a week or whatever figure you want to make up is loose change in that context.

    I don't think anyone is terrified that Britain is going to make a success of Brexit. Pity mixed with contempt is more how it's being viewed from abroad.
    What proportion of the EU budget is it though? That is about 1% of the total GDP I think.
  • germany suffered nothing when it broke the euro deficit rule, France when it illegally banned british beef.

    Its pointless sticking to rules when they are not enforced.
    It wouldn’t have been a European court: our own courts are happy to rule against the government all the time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Last.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    Second last.
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