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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about hims

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    Anazina said:

    You would prefer Trumpton to prosper?
    That’s not what I meant.

    I meant it’s not coloured by what I want to happen.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028

    Surely "People who post nonsensical comparisons = fish cushions"?
    :)
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.
    Agreed re TMPM’s MO but today’s proposal doesn’t seem to meet any of the criteria for a functional backstop, even if you ignore the temporary/indefinite language games. It’s almost like she has gone back to believing the the EU have no television, internet or Hansard.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Only me!

    People who attended People's Vote Rally 2018 = 700,000
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000
    Come come Mr Prassanan. You are supposed to be a scientist. The two cases are not comparable.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,981
    edited October 2018

    Surely "People who post nonsensical comparisons = fish cushions"?
    So fish can't have cushions now? How are they to rest their weary fins? How would a fish chaise-longue work? They'll get fish cramp from the awkward pose.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,398

    Great idea, and it could work. But I think the Tories are losing their ability to set the agenda.
    The other problem is, and I'm going to channel my inner HYUFD here, the polls show most people are "tired" of Brexit and want it over and done with. The thought of this continuing into the next decade unresolved isn't going to be palatable even for those who have given My the benefit of the doubt thus far.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,315
    What do people think of the reports of large numbers of people turning up for early voting? Most commentators seem to think that is good for the Democrats, is that correct?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667

    Actually at the start of the debate the benches were quite full apart from the SNP but of course as time went on (over an hour) mps drifted away
    Yes, and MPs can follow it over the screens, but it's not exactly a Show of Force by the ERG.

    I used to tease the Tories on the European Affairs Select Committee that they consistently didn't bother to attend the subcommittee meetings examining in detail exactly the sort of EU legislation that they claimed to object to. But equally, I remember a meeting to discuss concerns about the Iraq war just before it started, chaired by the then Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. About a dozen MPs turned up, out of 650. "Evidently not an issue of much concern to colleagues," he said drily. The problem is that there's too much to do and if a meeting is merely discussing an issue without a vote, people don't attend.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,981
    edited October 2018

    Come come Mr Prassanan. You are supposed to be a scientist. The two cases are not comparable.
    Come come Dr Prasannan. You derive as much pleasure from posting obscure references as I do...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUOimokeY7s
  • Come come Dr Prasannan. You are supposed to be a scientist. The two cases are not comparable.
    17,400,000 VOTES mean nothing to you, Mr Reccidivist?
  • Yes, and MPs can follow it over the screens, but it's not exactly a Show of Force by the ERG.

    I used to tease the Tories on the European Affairs Select Committee that they consistently didn't bother to attend the subcommittee meetings examining in detail exactly the sort of EU legislation that they claimed to object to. But equally, I remember a meeting to discuss concerns about the Iraq war just before it started, chaired by the then Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. About a dozen MPs turned up, out of 650. "Evidently not an issue of much concern to colleagues," he said drily. The problem is that there's too much to do and if a meeting is merely discussing an issue without a vote, people don't attend.
    Makes sense if anything does these days
  • Sturgeon won't be happy about Boris wanting to take back control of the Bawdaz.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,607
    A week ago the Cox report on bullying in the House of Commons was published. And yesterday we read of an MP who talks about knifing the PM in a brutal way.

    If proof were needed of what the Cox report said that MP’s words provided it. I hope he or she is unmasked soon so that the opprobrium they so richly deserve is unleashed on them.

    Good to see MPs from all parties criticising such revolting language.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MPs take note

    https://twitter.com/Coral/status/1054475070888964099

    This is what happens when you sack the manager...
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    TM said she will bring back her deal and it is upto the HOC to decide.

    No deal is unacceptable and in those circumstances a second referendum becomes almost inevitable
    Yet she has ruled it out and promised today that in all circumstances the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. Unless you are saying she is lying....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,178

    Sturgeon won't be happy about Boris wanting to take back control of the Bawdaz.
    Boy I bet Boris thinks he should have sent the other column in...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    My gut instinct is that the Dems are going to win big in the House.

    I’m not sure if I should bet on my gut instinct:
    Trump's base is obdurate, but has visibly shrunk. Outside of his base, there is an overwhelming desire to see the GOP lose the House. On the other hand, there is no strong love from swing voters for the Dems at the moment as they are more and more controlled by their left wing.

    So I am expecting a blue wave in House elections, but a very much tighter race for the Senate, with the GOP probably, but not certainty, holding on by their fingertips.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited October 2018

    17,400,000 VOTES mean nothing to you, Mr Reccidivist?
    Yes it does certainly mean something to me. But so does the number 634,751 - the number of votes that would have to change to get a different result. It's a big number, but smaller than the number who turned out last Saturday.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Anazina said:

    Norway Super Plus?

    The list of brexitisms just grows longer and longer.

    Presumably the goal is to deliver a deal that is described by the most tortured and wordy neologism? A worthy aim!

    Norcan?

    Or Can-way Island?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I am waiting for Brexit+++CU--SM++/EEA~EFTA+-/YesNoMaybe/Barnier to turn up in the list of concise deals
    At university I was graded on one paper as

    A-?A—/B+++

    Which I think meant about A—
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Scott_P said:

    MPs take note

    https://twitter.com/Coral/status/1054475070888964099

    This is what happens when you sack the manager...

    It helped that the ref played for Arsenal tonight. His first half performance was abject, and guess which team got the benefit of his numerous errors. Arsenal played some great stuff in the second half but the ref simply robbed Leicester.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    Firstly there was nothing May said today which prevents her agreeing a backstop with a break clause e.g. a technical solution is found to the Irish border.

    Secondly May also refused to rule out a second EU referendum for the first time today if negotiations break down so as I said if the ERG push it too far they may end with No Brexit at all

    Exactly what do you think May said today - do you have a quote? Because I heard her rule out a second referendum, a general election and an extension to article 50. She promised the UK would leave on time regardless of the circumstances.

    But in the end, May is not going to be able to fudge. The ERG trap is closing - forced her to make commitments today that the EU will not accept and Cabinet forced her to obtain legal advice from Cox, who won’t be fooled, about whether the UK can leave the backstop unilaterally which is what she promised today,

    She will end up with no deal herself.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028

    17,400,000 VOTES mean nothing to you, Mr Reccidivist?
    Fish cushions
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,178
    MTimT said:

    Trump's base is obdurate, but has visibly shrunk. Outside of his base, there is an overwhelming desire to see the GOP lose the House. On the other hand, there is no strong love from swing voters for the Dems at the moment as they are more and more controlled by their left wing.

    So I am expecting a blue wave in House elections, but a very much tighter race for the Senate, with the GOP probably, but not certainty, holding on by their fingertips.
    Ok, I am going out on a limb here.

    But I think the GOP/Trump party are about to get an absolute shellacking. Massive, angry Dem turnout.

    I am on Dem Senate and I know it is mad, given BF rules on indies.

    What the hell...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You have no idea what the deal will be, as does anyone else, and your portrayal of ERG would do Comical Ali justice

    They have shot themselves in the foot and been hit by a backlash that empowers TM
    Wouldn’t you fall over if you were shot in the foot AND hit by a backlash at the same time?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,981
    Apropos of nothing, I'm looking at the clips from "The Trip" (2010) and "The Trip to Spain" (2017) and by fuckery Steve Coogan has aged fast.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Barnesian said:

    California should split into two states and get two more senators and more EC votes.
    Or 3 - NorCal, SoCal and Central Coast

    You’d stand s good chance of (4 GOP and 2 Dem though)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    glw said:

    What do people think of the reports of large numbers of people turning up for early voting? Most commentators seem to think that is good for the Democrats, is that correct?

    Tim B here said the other day that the consensus among commentators is that they had no clue what was happening.

    But early voting, like its cousin postal voting, is only useful because it means you don't forget to vote on the day. If you'd have voted anyway it doen't help to do it early.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    At university I was graded on one paper as

    A-?A—/B+++

    Which I think meant about A—
    Did you agree with your grade? :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    We have had enough of experts...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1054479023340961792

    Oh, wait.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600


    Exactly what do you think May said today - do you have a quote? Because I heard her rule out a second referendum, a general election and an extension to article 50. She promised the UK would leave on time regardless of the circumstances.

    But in the end, May is not going to be able to fudge. The ERG trap is closing - forced her to make commitments today that the EU will not accept and Cabinet forced her to obtain legal advice from Cox, who won’t be fooled, about whether the UK can leave the backstop unilaterally which is what she promised today,

    She will end up with no deal herself.
    May herself said today she was only ruling out EUref2 "at this stage of the negotiations", so if negotiations break down anything is possible.

    Anyone who thinks the ERG has any sort of trap is deluded, May will agree a backstop with a get out clause if a technical solution found to the Irish border, she will tell them vaguely what they want to hear but she is basically slowly boiling them until it is too late and she signs the deal with the EU at the end of the month.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Yes it does certainly mean something to me. But so does the number 634,751 - the number of votes that would have to change to get a different result. It's a big number, but smaller than the number who turned out last Saturday.
    I was talking today to a guy who didn't vote in the referendum.

    I asked him if there was a second vote what would he do

    Sit it out he says

    Amusingly he was going through the pros and cons of the EU

    He had some serious cons

    His two main pros -

    He likes to travel (except he mainly travels further afield than Europe)

    He has friends in Europe - when asked why he couldn't still be friends he thought about it and said, well - I guess I still could.

    Strangely he never mentioned financial Armageddon
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited October 2018
    Scott_P said:

    We have had enough of experts...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1054479023340961792

    Oh, wait.

    Post-Brexit England will be filled with golden sunshine and healthy people leaning on country stiles gazing over fields of barley and corn and downing well-earned ales served by buxom barmaids wanting a roll in the hay after their shift in the tavern.

    No one will get ill or work in a lab. There are no foreigners in sight.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,806
    Scott_P said:
    If they want to avoid Hard Brexit they should tell the EU to stop trying to annex Northern Ireland...
  • Yet she has ruled it out and promised today that in all circumstances the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. Unless you are saying she is lying....
    I don't use lying or idiots. It is not my way. And no deal will not happen
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If I were a conspiracy theorist I would be looking for Russian tourists who had recently visited Honduras. The refugee march towards the US is fortuitously timed for the mid-terms for Trump.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Did you agree with your grade? :)
    It was fine. If I hadn’t got a B- on econometrics I would have got a first :neutral:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    GIN1138 said:

    If they want to avoid Hard Brexit they should tell the EU to stop trying to annex Northern Ireland...
    Voters in Northern Ireland want to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union, since when was giving voters what they want annexation? Especially as it still allows for a FTA for GB with the EU

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44162470
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    We have had enough of experts...

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1054479023340961792

    Oh, wait.

    FWIW when I was on the Finance Committee of a university I realised most academics knew the square root of FA about academic financing
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited October 2018

    If I were a conspiracy theorist I would be looking for Russian tourists who had recently visited Honduras. The refugee march towards the US is fortuitously timed for the mid-terms for Trump.

    If stopping refugees is the be all and end all for you I would imagine you were 99% certain to be voting Republican in the midterms anyway. If the Democrats win it will be because of healthcare, the need for a check on Trump etc controlling immigration is already factored in for Trump and the GOP.


    Though the issue could boost Hispanic turnout for Democrats
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    The actually said that the EU should open up its scientific programmes to associate members
  • glwglw Posts: 10,315

    Tim B here said the other day that the consensus among commentators is that they had no clue what was happening.

    But early voting, like its cousin postal voting, is only useful because it means you don't forget to vote on the day. If you'd have voted anyway it doen't help to do it early.
    I've seen a lot of "this means something" but very little explanation of why it does so.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Floater said:

    I was talking today to a guy who didn't vote in the referendum.

    I asked him if there was a second vote what would he do

    Sit it out he says

    Amusingly he was going through the pros and cons of the EU

    He had some serious cons

    His two main pros -

    He likes to travel (except he mainly travels further afield than Europe)

    He has friends in Europe - when asked why he couldn't still be friends he thought about it and said, well - I guess I still could.

    Strangely he never mentioned financial Armageddon
    Well I am not fussed by financial Armageddon either. None of us know what the effect of Brexit is going to be on the economy. Even if it is bad it won't feel that bad. Most spending is of money we don't have, on things we don't want, to impress people we don't like. If we are all down around 10% we'll be just the same relative to each other so won't notice it.

    My problem with Brexit is it is just so negative.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    If I were a conspiracy theorist I would be looking for Russian tourists who had recently visited Honduras. The refugee march towards the US is fortuitously timed for the mid-terms for Trump.

    Mexico is mostly peaceful and relatively prosperous compared to most Central American countries. Why are they so determined to enter the USA?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    May herself said today she was only ruling out EUref2 "at this stage of the negotiations", so if negotiations break down anything is possible.

    Anyone who thinks the ERG has any sort of trap is deluded, May will agree a backstop with a get out clause if a technical solution found to the Irish border, she will tell them vaguely what they want to hear but she is basically slowly boiling them until it is too late and she signs the deal with the EU at the end of the month.
    Can you provide the complete question and answer?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    AndyJS said:

    Mexico is mostly peaceful and relatively prosperous compared to most Central American countries. Why are they so determined to enter the USA?
    They are about to get a populist leftist friend of Corbyn inaugurated as their President next month?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-44677829
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2018
    HYUFD said:

    If stopping refugees is the be all and end all for you I would imagine you were 99% certain to be voting Republican in the midterms anyway
    If you were motivated to vote. But there will be voters for whom it is one of a mix of concerns and if it is more prominent in the news then it is possible it will be more prominent in voters minds when they vote. It also distracts attention from issues that might be negative for the Republicans.

    In some respects it was the direction of the media attention span - emails! - that made the difference in 2016. This helps with that too.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,315

    If I were a conspiracy theorist I would be looking for Russian tourists who had recently visited Honduras. The refugee march towards the US is fortuitously timed for the mid-terms for Trump.

    If 2016 is a guide it will be 6-12 months later before we really know what the Russians (or maybe others) have done to interfere.

    This is a big problem for democracies, you need to fight intelligence operations at a very high speed in the era of the internet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited October 2018

    Can you provide the complete question and answer?
    That was a quote from the Parliamentary debate today
  • Post-Brexit England will be filled with golden sunshine and healthy people leaning on country stiles gazing over fields of barley and corn and downing well-earned ales served by buxom barmaids wanting a roll in the hay after their shift in the tavern.

    No one will get ill or work in a lab. There are no foreigners in sight.....
    Of course! There are no scientific research labs or universities in countries outside the EU!
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Only me!

    People who attended People's Vote Rally 2018 = 700,000
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000
    People who attended Leave Means Leave Rally 2018 = 1,200
    People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000

    People who attended People’s Vote Rally 2018 = 700,000
    People who would vote for a people’s vote (extrapolated) = 10,150,000,000
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545

    Can you provide the complete question and answer?

    Roger Gale - Is it not the case that talk of a second referendum at this crucial stage in the negotiations can only undermine the Prime Minister’s negotiating position? Will she carry on, ignore the siren voices and get the best deal she can for the people of this country?

    Theresa May - I agree that it is important, at this stage of the negotiations, that the European Union is in no doubt that we will be leaving the European Union on 29 March next year and that we are negotiating our withdrawal agreement and our future relationship. My determination is to put the national interest first and get a good deal for the UK.
  • Those who support ERG should read the Daily Mail front page and editorial

    They are becoming friendless
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited October 2018

    Can you provide the complete question and answer?
    It was also reported that May's advisers are working on the assumption she will stop No Deal in all circumstances yesterday in the papers, they are ready for the Deal with the EU, they are really working on a way around the ERG.


    Never forget May voted Remain, she has no interest in No Deal as she knows she will be definitely be ousted sooner rather than later if that is the end result. She has every interest in stringing along the Brexit and free trade talks as long as possible as the longer they go on the longer she stays in No 10
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Roger Gale - Is it not the case that talk of a second referendum at this crucial stage in the negotiations can only undermine the Prime Minister’s negotiating position? Will she carry on, ignore the siren voices and get the best deal she can for the people of this country?

    Theresa May - I agree that it is important, at this stage of the negotiations, that the European Union is in no doubt that we will be leaving the European Union on 29 March next year and that we are negotiating our withdrawal agreement and our future relationship. My determination is to put the national interest first and get a good deal for the UK.
    Thankyou, a key shift
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited October 2018

    If you were motivated to vote. But there will be voters for whom it is one of a mix of concerns and if it is more prominent in the news then it is possible it will be more prominent in voters minds when they vote. It also distracts attention from issues that might be negative for the Republicans.

    In some respects it was the direction of the media attention span - emails! - that made the difference in 2016. This helps with that too.
    Not really, Hillary was from the incumbent party in 2016 and the GOP Congress' approval ratings are even worse than hers.


    It is Independents in the more prosperous suburbs who are moving to the Democrats and who will lose the House for the GOP, they are much more relaxed about immigration than the Trump base who are still in the GOP column anyway
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "MPs should not criticise soldiers for being obese because many of them are overweight themselves, a defence minister has suggested.

    Mark Lancaster was asked in the Commons about figures showing that there are 18,000 clinically obese members of the armed forces. A further 398 suffer from type 2 diabetes, 160 are on diet pills and 16 have had liposuction."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/22/mps-not-entitled-criticise-obese-soldiers-many-overweight-minister/
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AndyJS said:

    Mexico is mostly peaceful and relatively prosperous compared to most Central American countries. Why are they so determined to enter the USA?
    I don't know how the stats compare between the countries as a whole but I thought that Mexico City was notorious as one of the most violent cities in the world due to the drugs cartels.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    Charles said:

    Or 3 - NorCal, SoCal and Central Coast

    You’d stand s good chance of (4 GOP and 2 Dem though)
    Some rich chap who is always pushing the division of California in various ways had just such a proposal up for potential vote, but IIRC it ran into legal difficulties and he's since withdrawn it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,806
    edited October 2018

    Those who support ERG should read the Daily Mail front page and editorial

    They are becoming friendless

    Daily Mail dropping readers quicker than ERG dropping friends I bet... ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Those who support ERG should read the Daily Mail front page and editorial

    They are becoming friendless

    Does the Mail name the plotters ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    MPs should not criticise soldiers for being obese because many of them are overweight themselves, a defence minister has suggested.

    That's sounds like a pretty stupid counter to make. While obesity is a problem many will face and deserves tackling, different jobs will have different reasonable levels of expected fitness. Was that the best he could come up with?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Daily Mail dropping readers quicker than ERG dropping friends I bet... ;)
    Not really. The Daily Express is the ultras paper but the mail have started to back TM in a change of tone

  • TGOHF said:

    Does the Mail name the plotters ?
    Haven't had my copy until after 11.00 ish so I cannot say
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545

    Not really. The Daily Express is the ultras paper but the mail have started to back TM in a change of tone
    Calling the ERG "saboteurs" is a big shift from the famous front page last year.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Haven't had my copy until after 11.00 ish so I cannot say
    I’d wager they don’t.

    Peacock suggests Boris not ERG.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545
    Amber Rudd on Newsnight says you'd have to have Remain on the ballot paper in a People's Vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    edited October 2018

    Amber Rudd on Newsnight says you'd have to have Remain on the ballot paper in a People's Vote.

    Pretty uncontroversial I would say. If you feel the people need to confirm things, then they need all the options. Pretty obvious way for Remain to not be risked though - have MPs just do their jobs already.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Amber Rudd on Newsnight says you'd have to have Remain on the ballot paper in a People's Vote.

    3 options -lol..
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    Amber Rudd on Newsnight says you'd have to have Remain on the ballot paper in a People's Vote.

    Who voted in 2016 then? Badgers?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited October 2018
    kle4 said:

    Some rich chap who is always pushing the division of California in various ways had just such a proposal up for potential vote, but IIRC it ran into legal difficulties and he's since withdrawn it.
    That's right, and in any case it was very unpopular when polled. The States are very embedded into American identity. It would be like re-drawing the borders between England, Scotland and Wales for some administrative convenience. (Yes, I know that legally Monmouthshire was moved from England to Wales in the 70s, but it was already regarded by almost everyone as Welsh.)
  • Calling the ERG "saboteurs" is a big shift from the famous front page last year.
    Wasn't it the Telegraph last year, but yes it is a complete reversal

    I would say that your chances of seeng a second referendum are growing
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Maybe a 5 option referendum - leave, remain, deal, no deal, other deal.

    Least votes knocked out and then keep going with more referendums until last 2 .

    Should be done in a year.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kle4 said:

    Some rich chap who is always pushing the division of California in various ways had just such a proposal up for potential vote, but IIRC it ran into legal difficulties and he's since withdrawn it.
    It was challenged in court on the basis that it was not an amendment to California's constitution, but a revision, and therefore the ballot initiative approach was not applicable. The judges on the CA Supreme Court want to consider the matter, so have told the state to remove the initiative from the ballot while they do.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2018

    Wasn't it the Telegraph last year, but yes it is a complete reversal

    I would say that your chances of seeng a second referendum are growing
    Nothing in the Mail headline about the ERG.
  • Amber Rudd on Newsnight says you'd have to have Remain on the ballot paper in a People's Vote.

    Well of course in a second referendum (people's vote is just a deception )
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    AndyJS said:

    Mexico is mostly peaceful and relatively prosperous compared to most Central American countries. Why are they so determined to enter the USA?
    Because compared to the USA Mexico is decidedly not peaceful or prosperous. Yes there is a certain degree of economic motivation, but the Central Americans don't want to stay in Mexico mostly because they are especially targetted for violence by the cartels and other criminal gangs.

    It's worth noting that these "caravans" are not at all new, there was another one earlier this year and there have been others in previous years; they are caused by the Central Americans wanting to band together for safety. Trump has particularly latched on to them as being some new threat, but I understand the previous one just reached the US border, didn't get let in and dispersed.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rpjs said:

    That's right, and in any case it was very unpopular when polled. The States are very embedded into American identity. It would be like re-drawing the borders between England, Scotland and Wales for some administrative convenience. (Yes, I know that legally Monmouthshire was moved from England to Wales in the 70s, but it was already regarded by almost everyone as Welsh.)
    States have split before though. VA/WV, MA/ME
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,806
    edited October 2018

    Amber Rudd on Newsnight says you'd have to have Remain on the ballot paper in a People's Vote.

    Amber favouring another referendum rather than a general election... I'm sure the fact the majority in her constituency has dwindled to 346 has nothing to do with this... ;)
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MTimT said:

    States have split before though. VA/WV, MA/ME
    Yup, but the most recent of those was during the Civil War over 150 years ago, and the other, the last uncontroversial split, was nearly 200 years ago now!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Isn’t he calling the chap who is sick enough to use a hospitalised child to virtue signal a cretin ?

    He’s right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    rpjs said:



    Yup, but the most recent of those was during the Civil War over 150 years ago, and the other, the last uncontroversial split, was nearly 200 years ago now!

    So you're saying we're due for one? :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Here's a thread for those looking at the US elections to ponder:

    https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1054488734157234177

    If the biggest rise is in the unaffiliated, that doesn't sound good to me for the Republicans.
  • TGOHF said:

    I’d wager they don’t.

    Peacock suggests Boris not ERG.
    No idea about Boris but he is a fully paid up member of ERG
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    edited October 2018
    I am quite sure he would be referring to the person posting the message a cretin*, and while that is itself a poor thing to be doing and absolutely needless there is a danger in overdoing the criticism by suggesting he was calling the child a cretin, which looks a lot like deliberately misinterpreting things even more hostilely than deserved. See also comments of Corbyn seized upon, over egged, and thus being ineffective even when the comments deserved criticism.

    *should he confirm he meant the child I'll withdraw that
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Here's a thread for those looking at the US elections to ponder:

    https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1054488734157234177

    If the biggest rise is in the unaffiliated, that doesn't sound good to me for the Republicans.

    Of course, it could be Trump's base turning out, especially those who had given up voting but came out for him in 2016, and I'm sure some of it is. But I'd wager its more the Dems getting out their supporters and independents who usually sit the midterms out.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The reason being that Stewart Jackson has no manners or decency, but that's hardly news.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028

    Amber Rudd on Newsnight says you'd have to have Remain on the ballot paper in a People's Vote.

    It needs to be a repeat of the original referendum (Leave/Remain) but with much better
    knowledge of the implications of each and an up-to-date electoral roll. The Leave option will be "no deal" assuming the referendum is being called because May's deal has been rejected in parliament.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,320
    Stewart Jackson has lost none of his class since he used to post on here
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    You shouldn’t call anyone a cretin, least of all a sick child or parent thereof. Politics does seem to attract some very unpleasant people.
  • Barnesian said:

    It needs to be a repeat of the original referendum (Leave/Remain) but with much better
    knowledge of the implications of each and an up-to-date electoral roll. The Leave option will be "no deal" assuming the referendum is being called because May's deal has been rejected in parliament.
    That is the key problem with a second referendum. It has to be fair and independently decided on the wording, margins, etc
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    edited October 2018
    kle4 said:

    I am quite sure he would be referring to the person posting the message a cretin*, and while that is itself a poor thing to be doing and absolutely needless there is a danger in overdoing the criticism by suggesting he was calling the child a cretin, which looks a lot like deliberately misinterpreting things even more hostilely than deserved. See also comments of Corbyn seized upon, over egged, and thus being ineffective even when the comments deserved criticism.

    *should he confirm he meant the child I'll withdraw that
    However, simply calling people who disagree with you cretins is ill-mannered and unbecoming. What's worse is it is entirely ineffective.
    It is the politics of the playground. And not Secondary School.
    Sorry not directed at kle...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Barnesian said:

    It needs to be a repeat of the original referendum (Leave/Remain) but with much better
    knowledge of the implications of each and an up-to-date electoral roll. The Leave option will be "no deal" assuming the referendum is being called because May's deal has been rejected in parliament.
    If that comes to pass, the entire May premiership would have been a complete waste of time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545
    Jonathan said:

    If that comes to pass, the entire May premiership would have been a complete waste of time.
    Kicking the can for long enough for everyone to get sick of it is no mean feat.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028

    That is the key problem with a second referendum. It has to be fair and independently decided on the wording, margins, etc
    That's why I think a straight repeat would be the least contentious.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2018

    I don't know how the stats compare between the countries as a whole but I thought that Mexico City was notorious as one of the most violent cities in the world due to the drugs cartels.

    Mexico gets a lot of focus because it has a high population, so the overall number of murders is large. However, in terms of murder rates per 100k population: Mexico 19ish, Venezuela/Honduras 56ish, El Salvador 83.

    The latter three are the highest in the world. For comparison the USA is 5.5ish, and Western Europe is around 1


  • Jonathan said:

    You shouldn’t call anyone a cretin, least of all a sick child or parent thereof. Politics does seem to attract some very unpleasant people.

    I think we have seen politics descend into a cesspit of abuse and serious threats.

    The reference to the child is sick.

    These people involved in this abusive lanuage need to be taken to task and if a parliamentarian thrown out
This discussion has been closed.