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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations
We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge.
Comments
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E pluribus unum0
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When it comes to Donald Trump it's more a case of "nunquam scienter normalis"TheScreamingEagles said:E pluribus unum
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Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html0 -
Nutjob uber alles is more aptspudgfsh said:
When it comes to Donald Trump it's more a case of "nunquam scienter normalis"TheScreamingEagles said:E pluribus unum
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Surely, standard PB wisdom is that "Peston is never right"?Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
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Every President since World War Two has seen their party lose seats in their first midterms bar George W Bush I doubt Trump will be any different and on present polling his party will likely lose the House.
Trump may claim victory if the GOP hold Congress but he has refused to take the blame if the Democrats lose the House
http://time.com/5426651/trump-gop-blame-lose-house-congress/0 -
Falling fast, like Boris.0
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The Democrats gained 31 seats last time they took the House in 2006 so about the same rangeAndyJS said:Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html0 -
I hope he isn't, May indicated the EU might have some flexibility on this in her statement today.Beverley_C said:
Surely, standard PB wisdom is that "Peston is never right"?Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
I don’t think he’s quite right - my reading is that the EU will also be satisfied if the para 49 backstop commitment to ‘full alignment’ is met by the U.K. agreeing to maintain SM/CU alignment in a way which doesn’t seek to divide the four freedoms or take the benefits of market access without the corresponding obligations. So that means financial contributions and continued freedom of movement and will probably have a snappy name like ‘Norway Super Plus’. Or perhaps ‘Not Leaving’.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
Steve Baker says lack of DUP support made him pull his amendments
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10544308024638586880 -
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB0 -
Not fast enough - like Boris!IanB2 said:Falling fast, like Boris.
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Or the Republicans lose the House ratherHYUFD said:Every President since World War Two has seen their party lose seats in their first midterms bar George W Bush I doubt Trump will be any different and on present polling his party will likely lose the House.
Trump may claim victory if the GOP hold Congress but he has refused to take the blame if the Democrats lose the House
http://time.com/5426651/trump-gop-blame-lose-house-congress/0 -
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB0 -
Or perhaps, "Brexit Not Settled".Polruan said:
I don’t think he’s quite right - my reading is that the EU will also be satisfied if the para 49 backstop commitment to ‘full alignment’ is met by the U.K. agreeing to maintain SM/CU alignment in a way which doesn’t seek to divide the four freedoms or take the benefits of market access without the corresponding obligations. So that means financial contributions and continued freedom of movement and will probably have a snappy name like ‘Norway Super Plus’. Or perhaps ‘Not Leaving’.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
I really thought it would be impossible to get anybody fired up about re-opening the 2019 Brexit settlement. Well, May looks set to do the impossible....0 -
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB0 -
The tweet says other MP's say that. The tweet quite clearly says Baker said it was procedural reasons.HYUFD said:Steve Baker says lack of DUP support made him pull his amendments
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10544308024638586880 -
It would be useful to see the original source before jumping to conclusions. Barnier has said on the record that the backstop (CU plus regulatory alignment) cannot apply to the whole of the UK [without the four freedoms] because it gives the UK a free pass, but I don't think he has said it just about the CU.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
I meant that the vote of confidence would happen not that the DUP would abstain. I was just pointing out how precarious the Tories are at the moment. That it doesn't necessarily require the DUP to vote against the government for them to lose a vote of confidence.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB0 -
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB0 -
Are there any non Rep/Dem Representatives who could hold the balance?AndyJS said:Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html0 -
If Trump holds the House (I’m doubtful) he must be the red hot favourite for 2020. That would’ve been twice he’s gone into an election as an underdog and twice he’s pulled it off.0
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I think you may be grasping at strawsspudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB0 -
In English, pleaseTheScreamingEagles said:E pluribus unum
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Rather like Osborne with austerity, the Tories need to redefine Brexit as a journey rather than a destination. Then they can fight future elections claiming that it’s too risky to elect Labour, because the job is only half done, and Labour will throw away all the progress that has been made. Brexit: a present continuous verb, not a noun.MarqueeMark said:
Or perhaps, "Brexit Not Settled".Polruan said:
I don’t think he’s quite right - my reading is that the EU will also be satisfied if the para 49 backstop commitment to ‘full alignment’ is met by the U.K. agreeing to maintain SM/CU alignment in a way which doesn’t seek to divide the four freedoms or take the benefits of market access without the corresponding obligations. So that means financial contributions and continued freedom of movement and will probably have a snappy name like ‘Norway Super Plus’. Or perhaps ‘Not Leaving’.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
I really thought it would be impossible to get anybody fired up about re-opening the 2019 Brexit settlement. Well, May looks set to do the impossible....0 -
If he holds the house with another popular vote loss then the US government as a institution will have problems. But agreed, if the Reps hold the house then pile on Trump for 2020numbertwelve said:If Trump holds the House (I’m doubtful) he must be the red hot favourite for 2020. That would’ve been twice he’s gone into an election as an underdog and twice he’s pulled it off.
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Bernie was the last Independent congresscritter before he upgraded to Senator.MarqueeMark said:
Are there any non Rep/Dem Representatives who could hold the balance?AndyJS said:Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html0 -
Norway Super Plus?
The list of brexitisms just grows longer and longer.
Presumably the goal is to deliver a deal that is described by the most tortured and wordy neologism? A worthy aim!0 -
Temporary but of indefinite length (ie ending when conditions are met, not due to time elapsing) is acceptable. It may be that CU-only can apply to the whole of the UK but that still means there’s no commitment to regulatory alignment between the UK and NI, which means the DUP won’t back it, as it’s the kind of regulatory divergence between the Uk and NI they disapprove of, rather than the kind they approve of.Barnesian said:
It would be useful to see the original source before jumping to conclusions. Barnier has said on the record that the backstop (CU plus regulatory alignment) cannot apply to the whole of the UK [without the four freedoms] because it gives the UK a free pass, but I don't think he has said it just about the CU.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
John Redwood isn't a happy man.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/10543909258065264660 -
I am waiting for Brexit+++CU--SM++/EEA~EFTA+-/YesNoMaybe/Barnier to turn up in the list of concise dealsAnazina said:Norway Super Plus?
The list of brexitisms just grows longer and longer.0 -
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Yes, this is one of the great mysteries of the world. The DUP are activity responsible for causing regulatory divergence in the Irish Sea, thanks to their reactionary views on various topics.Polruan said:
Temporary but of indefinite length (ie ending when conditions are met, not due to time elapsing) is acceptable. It may be that CU-only can apply to the whole of the UK but that still means there’s no commitment to regulatory alignment between the UK and NI, which means the DUP won’t back it, as it’s the kind of regulatory divergence between the Uk and NI they disapprove of, rather than the kind they approve of.Barnesian said:
It would be useful to see the original source before jumping to conclusions. Barnier has said on the record that the backstop (CU plus regulatory alignment) cannot apply to the whole of the UK [without the four freedoms] because it gives the UK a free pass, but I don't think he has said it just about the CU.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
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Not at all. Of the post WW2 Presidents who saw their party lose the House in their first midterms, Truman, IKE, Clinton and Obama all were re elected. The last President to lose his re election bid after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Carter, saw his party hold the House in 1978 despite losses. In 2002 George W Bush saw his party have the best results of any incumbent President for years and he beat Kerry by just 1 state in 2004 in the EC.numbertwelve said:If Trump holds the House (I’m doubtful) he must be the red hot favourite for 2020. That would’ve been twice he’s gone into an election as an underdog and twice he’s pulled it off.
Midterms have about as much relevance to US presidential elections as UK local elections to general elections, in fact if anything US voters prefer separation of powers so you could argue if a President loses at least 1 chamber of Congress that may even boost their re election hopes0 -
That is surely too pithy to be a serious contender.Beverley_C said:
I am waiting for Brexit+++CU--SM++/EEA~EFTA+-/YesNoMaybe/Barnier to turn up in the list of concise dealsAnazina said:Norway Super Plus?
The list of brexitisms just grows longer and longer.0 -
This week’s Private Eye has an excellent piece on the DUP’s recent efforts to block reforms to libel laws (I think) in Northern Ireland, which broadly came down to the argument that ‘NI is a different environment to the rest of the U.K. and it’s not appropriate to have the same rules’.Anazina said:
Yes, this is one of the great mysteries of the world. The DUP are activity responsible for causing regulatory divergence in the Irish Sea, thanks to their reactionary views on various topics.Polruan said:
Temporary but of indefinite length (ie ending when conditions are met, not due to time elapsing) is acceptable. It may be that CU-only can apply to the whole of the UK but that still means there’s no commitment to regulatory alignment between the UK and NI, which means the DUP won’t back it, as it’s the kind of regulatory divergence between the Uk and NI they disapprove of, rather than the kind they approve of.Barnesian said:
It would be useful to see the original source before jumping to conclusions. Barnier has said on the record that the backstop (CU plus regulatory alignment) cannot apply to the whole of the UK [without the four freedoms] because it gives the UK a free pass, but I don't think he has said it just about the CU.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
Then Corbyn PM or EUref2 and Remain.Pulpstar said:
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB
Hardline Brexiteers will have killed the chance of a FTA for GB beyond BINO by their refusal to compromise and will have nobody to blame but themselves0 -
Chortle.Polruan said:
This week’s Private Eye has an excellent piece on the DUP’s recent efforts to block reforms to libel laws (I think) in Northern Ireland, which broadly came down to the argument that ‘NI is a different environment to the rest of the U.K. and it’s not appropriate to have the same rules’.Anazina said:
Yes, this is one of the great mysteries of the world. The DUP are activity responsible for causing regulatory divergence in the Irish Sea, thanks to their reactionary views on various topics.Polruan said:
Temporary but of indefinite length (ie ending when conditions are met, not due to time elapsing) is acceptable. It may be that CU-only can apply to the whole of the UK but that still means there’s no commitment to regulatory alignment between the UK and NI, which means the DUP won’t back it, as it’s the kind of regulatory divergence between the Uk and NI they disapprove of, rather than the kind they approve of.Barnesian said:
It would be useful to see the original source before jumping to conclusions. Barnier has said on the record that the backstop (CU plus regulatory alignment) cannot apply to the whole of the UK [without the four freedoms] because it gives the UK a free pass, but I don't think he has said it just about the CU.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
Anazina said:
That is surely too pithy to be a serious contender.Beverley_C said:
I am waiting for Brexit+++CU--SM++/EEA~EFTA+-/YesNoMaybe/Barnier to turn up in the list of concise dealsAnazina said:Norway Super Plus?
The list of brexitisms just grows longer and longer.
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I have a hunch they might try regardless.HYUFD said:
Then Corbyn PM or EUref2 and Remain.Pulpstar said:
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB
Hardline Brexiteers will... have nobody to blame but themselves0 -
Headline: "Swivel-eyed-loon demands Economic Armageddon!"williamglenn said:John Redwood isn't a happy man. twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1054390925806526466
Something of a "dog bites man" headline ...
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No one ever says “we’re going to win big”. It would be terrible expectation management and terrible for getting the vote out.AndyJS said:Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html0 -
Much like gay marriage and abortion thenPolruan said:
This week’s Private Eye has an excellent piece on the DUP’s recent efforts to block reforms to libel laws (I think) in Northern Ireland, which broadly came down to the argument that ‘NI is a different environment to the rest of the U.K. and it’s not appropriate to have the same rules’.Anazina said:
Yes, this is one of the great mysteries of the world. The DUP are activity responsible for causing regulatory divergence in the Irish Sea, thanks to their reactionary views on various topics.Polruan said:
Temporary but of indefinite length (ie ending when conditions are met, not due to time elapsing) is acceptable. It may be that CU-only can apply to the whole of the UK but that still means there’s no commitment to regulatory alignment between the UK and NI, which means the DUP won’t back it, as it’s the kind of regulatory divergence between the Uk and NI they disapprove of, rather than the kind they approve of.Barnesian said:
It would be useful to see the original source before jumping to conclusions. Barnier has said on the record that the backstop (CU plus regulatory alignment) cannot apply to the whole of the UK [without the four freedoms] because it gives the UK a free pass, but I don't think he has said it just about the CU.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10544155698967920650 -
Indeed and only 3 midterm elections in the last 50 years have seen a party gain more than 35 seats, 1974, 1994 and 2010.AlastairMeeks said:
No one ever says “we’re going to win big”. It would be terrible expectation management and terrible for getting the vote out.AndyJS said:Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html
As long as the Democrats gain the House the fact they did not gain over 35 seats is irrelevant0 -
Trump didn't rule out standing as an Independent if the Republicans hadn't chosen him, he also was ready to claim the election was fixed if he hadn't won it. All that was left was for him to claim the popular vote was a fix.HYUFD said:
Or the Republicans lose the House ratherHYUFD said:Every President since World War Two has seen their party lose seats in their first midterms bar George W Bush I doubt Trump will be any different and on present polling his party will likely lose the House.
Trump may claim victory if the GOP hold Congress but he has refused to take the blame if the Democrats lose the House
http://time.com/5426651/trump-gop-blame-lose-house-congress/
What an absolute apology for a human being.0 -
Not exactly packed Chamber, is it?williamglenn said:John Redwood isn't a happy man.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/10543909258065264660 -
Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/0 -
Certainly Stormy Daniels didn't think she'd won big...AlastairMeeks said:
No one ever says “we’re going to win big”. It would be terrible expectation management and terrible for getting the vote out.AndyJS said:Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html0 -
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.0 -
Of course he has - just as he would take the credit in the unlikely event of their winning.HYUFD said:Every President since World War Two has seen their party lose seats in their first midterms bar George W Bush I doubt Trump will be any different and on present polling his party will likely lose the House.
Trump may claim victory if the GOP hold Congress but he has refused to take the blame if the Democrats lose the House...
The man is an enormous arse, but even he can’t really deny that the Republicans have become the party of Trump.
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Trumpton just bores me these days. There is only some much perverse entertainment one can glean from following the antics of a delusional moron.logical_song said:
Trump didn't rule out standing as an Independent if the Republicans hadn't chosen him, he also was ready to claim the election was fixed if he hadn't won it. All that was left was for him to claim the popular vote was a fix.HYUFD said:
Or the Republicans lose the House ratherHYUFD said:Every President since World War Two has seen their party lose seats in their first midterms bar George W Bush I doubt Trump will be any different and on present polling his party will likely lose the House.
Trump may claim victory if the GOP hold Congress but he has refused to take the blame if the Democrats lose the House
http://time.com/5426651/trump-gop-blame-lose-house-congress/
What an absolute apology for a human being.0 -
These are simulation models so I doubt if either of them had Clinton at 100% chance of winning. From memory, 538 had her at about 70%.ydoethur said:
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.
Both modelling companies have their reputations at stake so they are trying their best to use up-to-date data and follow reasonable and tested assumptions. They recognise the uncertainty and each give a wide spread. They are the best estimate available. If punters "don't know what to think" they shouldn't bet!
0 -
You are determined to miss the point.HYUFD said:
Then Corbyn PM or EUref2 and Remain.Pulpstar said:
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB
Hardline Brexiteers will have killed the chance of a FTA for GB beyond BINO by their refusal to compromise and will have nobody to blame but themselves
The ERG have forced May to set out criteria today that the EU will never agree. Surely you can see that?
The ERG are not going to have to vote down May’s deal at this rate - she simply won’t get one.
The backstop is not the ERGs fault, nor their idea. But they have played it beautifully against her and she is now going to end up vetoing her own deal. She can’t backtrack on her latest ‘four point plan’ but nor can she deliver it. No need to get rid of her right now.0 -
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.archer101au said:
You are determined to miss the point.HYUFD said:
Then Corbyn PM or EUref2 and Remain.Pulpstar said:
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB
Hardline Brexiteers will have killed the chance of a FTA for GB beyond BINO by their refusal to compromise and will have nobody to blame but themselves
The ERG have forced May to set out criteria today that the EU will never agree. Surely you can see that?
The ERG are not going to have to vote down May’s deal at this rate - she simply won’t get one.
The backstop is not the ERGs fault, nor their idea. But they have played it beautifully against her and she is now going to end up vetoing her own deal. She can’t backtrack on her latest ‘four point plan’ but nor can she deliver it. No need to get rid of her right now.0 -
You have no idea what the deal will be, as does anyone else, and your portrayal of ERG would do Comical Ali justicearcher101au said:
You are determined to miss the point.HYUFD said:
Then Corbyn PM or EUref2 and Remain.Pulpstar said:
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB
Hardline Brexiteers will have killed the chance of a FTA for GB beyond BINO by their refusal to compromise and will have nobody to blame but themselves
The ERG have forced May to set out criteria today that the EU will never agree. Surely you can see that?
The ERG are not going to have to vote down May’s deal at this rate - she simply won’t get one.
The backstop is not the ERGs fault, nor their idea. But they have played it beautifully against her and she is now going to end up vetoing her own deal. She can’t backtrack on her latest ‘four point plan’ but nor can she deliver it. No need to get rid of her right now.
They have shot themselves in the foot and been hit by a backlash that empowers TM0 -
You have no idea what the deal will be, as does anyone else, and your portrayal of ERG would do Comical Ali justicearcher101au said:
You are determined to miss the point.HYUFD said:
Then Corbyn PM or EUref2 and Remain.Pulpstar said:
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB
Hardline Brexiteers will have killed the chance of a FTA for GB beyond BINO by their refusal to compromise and will have nobody to blame but themselves
The ERG have forced May to set out criteria today that the EU will never agree. Surely you can see that?
The ERG are not going to have to vote down May’s deal at this rate - she simply won’t get one.
The backstop is not the ERGs fault, nor their idea. But they have played it beautifully against her and she is now going to end up vetoing her own deal. She can’t backtrack on her latest ‘four point plan’ but nor can she deliver it. No need to get rid of her right now.
They have shot themselves in the foot and been hit by a backlash that empowers TM0 -
Given that Trumpton lost the popular vote by three million votes, it’s hardly surprising that many models gave it to Hillary. I’m not sure what the odds of a 3m PV win - EC loss are, but I suspect they are very long.Barnesian said:
These are simulation models so I doubt if either of them had Clinton at 100% chance of winning. From memory, 538 had her at about 70%.ydoethur said:
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.
Both modelling companies have their reputations at stake so they are trying their best to use up-to-date data and follow reasonable and tested assumptions. They recognise the uncertainty and each give a wide spread. They are the best estimate available. If punters "don't know what to think" they shouldn't bet!0 -
Biggest news in America today is Amari Cooper being traded to the boys.0
-
Not so long, TX is way less GOP than CA is Democrat but both are safe. It's the Dems running up the score in CA in particular that produces the disparity.Anazina said:
Given that Trumpton lost the popular vote by three million votes, it’s hardly surprising that many models gave it to Hillary. I’m not sure what the odds of a 3m PV win - EC loss are, but I suspect they are very long.Barnesian said:
These are simulation models so I doubt if either of them had Clinton at 100% chance of winning. From memory, 538 had her at about 70%.ydoethur said:
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.
Both modelling companies have their reputations at stake so they are trying their best to use up-to-date data and follow reasonable and tested assumptions. They recognise the uncertainty and each give a wide spread. They are the best estimate available. If punters "don't know what to think" they shouldn't bet!0 -
Yes, Trump actually led the popular vote until the California votes came inPulpstar said:
Not so long, TX is way less GOP than CA is Democrat but both are safe. It's the Dems running up the score in CA in particular that produces the disparity.Anazina said:
Given that Trumpton lost the popular vote by three million votes, it’s hardly surprising that many models gave it to Hillary. I’m not sure what the odds of a 3m PV win - EC loss are, but I suspect they are very long.Barnesian said:
These are simulation models so I doubt if either of them had Clinton at 100% chance of winning. From memory, 538 had her at about 70%.ydoethur said:
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.
Both modelling companies have their reputations at stake so they are trying their best to use up-to-date data and follow reasonable and tested assumptions. They recognise the uncertainty and each give a wide spread. They are the best estimate available. If punters "don't know what to think" they shouldn't bet!0 -
He will blame it on 'RINOs' like Ryan who have led the House for the last 2 yearsNigelb said:
Of course he has - just as he would take the credit in the unlikely event of their winning.HYUFD said:Every President since World War Two has seen their party lose seats in their first midterms bar George W Bush I doubt Trump will be any different and on present polling his party will likely lose the House.
Trump may claim victory if the GOP hold Congress but he has refused to take the blame if the Democrats lose the House...
The man is an enormous arse, but even he can’t really deny that the Republicans have become the party of Trump.0 -
Firstly there was nothing May said today which prevents her agreeing a backstop with a break clause e.g. a technical solution is found to the Irish border.archer101au said:
You are determined to miss the point.HYUFD said:
Then Corbyn PM or EUref2 and Remain.Pulpstar said:
In the event of no deal it'd potentially be Grieve, Soubry and some others no confidence get the Govt.Pulpstar said:
I don't see why the DUP would not back the government in the event of no deal, it is if a NI only backstop is agreed they will not back the Govt.spudgfsh said:
Whatever politicians say, no-deal will lead to another vote. all it would take is for the DUP to abstain from a vote of confidence (which would happen). it would be as tight as 1979 but without the DUP (even if they abstain) the tories would lose. a defeat of the government by a no confidence motion will make the Tory vote share drop by enough for Labour to win (even if not outright).HYUFD said:
Nope, if we go to No Deal even Remain would be better than the economic damage and risk of the Union breaking up that would result from No Deal. Voters prefer Remain to No Deal 55% to 45%.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
In any case most Northern Irish voters want to stay in the single market and customs union, it would be far better to agree the backstop (with a break if a technical solution is found to the Irish border) and work for a FTA for GB
Hardline Brexiteers will have killed the chance of a FTA for GB beyond BINO by their refusal to compromise and will have nobody to blame but themselves
The ERG have forced May to set out criteria today that the EU will never agree. Surely you can see that?
The ERG are not going to have to vote down May’s deal at this rate - she simply won’t get one.
The backstop is not the ERGs fault, nor their idea. But they have played it beautifully against her and she is now going to end up vetoing her own deal. She can’t backtrack on her latest ‘four point plan’ but nor can she deliver it. No need to get rid of her right now.
Secondly May also refused to rule out a second EU referendum for the first time today if negotiations break down so as I said if the ERG push it too far they may end with No Brexit at all0 -
Why do I have visions of Boris sitting in a bathtub full of baked beans to help achieve Brexitwilliamglenn said:0 -
He has become a sad failure and is a lost causewilliamglenn said:0 -
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.0 -
My gut instinct is that the Dems are going to win big in the House.Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
I’m not sure if I should bet on my gut instinct:0 -
<
I don't know. Nor do I know why you felt the need to share that with the rest of us.solarflare said:
Why do I have visions of Boris sitting in a bathtub full of baked beans to help achieve Brexitwilliamglenn said:0 -
I think you may have got it in one NickNickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.0 -
Probably true. Doubt the 'peacefully' bit though.NickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.0 -
The conservative benches are typically empty for Brexit debates. You have a small huddle of Pro EU MPs and a bigger group of headbangers. The others stay away or if they do attend, have a worried distracted look.NickPalmer said:
Not exactly packed Chamber, is it?williamglenn said:John Redwood isn't a happy man.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/10543909258065264660 -
California should split into two states and get two more senators and more EC votes.HYUFD said:
Yes, Trump actually led the popular vote until the California votes came inPulpstar said:
Not so long, TX is way less GOP than CA is Democrat but both are safe. It's the Dems running up the score in CA in particular that produces the disparity.Anazina said:
Given that Trumpton lost the popular vote by three million votes, it’s hardly surprising that many models gave it to Hillary. I’m not sure what the odds of a 3m PV win - EC loss are, but I suspect they are very long.Barnesian said:
These are simulation models so I doubt if either of them had Clinton at 100% chance of winning. From memory, 538 had her at about 70%.ydoethur said:
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.
Both modelling companies have their reputations at stake so they are trying their best to use up-to-date data and follow reasonable and tested assumptions. They recognise the uncertainty and each give a wide spread. They are the best estimate available. If punters "don't know what to think" they shouldn't bet!0 -
He pooed on the bus and went numb.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Follow the models not your gut or any anti-model sentiment.Casino_Royale said:
My gut instinct is that the Dems are going to win big in the House.Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
I’m not sure if I should bet on my gut instinct:0 -
Have to say after exiting the market with nice green next to both outcomes I am tempted to dive back in if Betfair are going with 65%.Casino_Royale said:
My gut instinct is that the Dems are going to win big in the House.Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
I’m not sure if I should bet on my gut instinct:
That seems like punters being driven by stories rather than data.0 -
Actually at the start of the debate the benches were quite full apart from the SNP but of course as time went on (over an hour) mps drifted awayFF43 said:
The conservative benches are typically empty for Brexit debates. You have a small huddle of Pro EU MPs and a bigger group of headbangers. The others stay away or if they do attend, have a worried distracted look.NickPalmer said:
Not exactly packed Chamber, is it?williamglenn said:John Redwood isn't a happy man.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/10543909258065264660 -
Agreed. But it means she leaves a growing trail of aggrieved people who though she meant what she said. Grieve (the next temporary PM) is an important example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may have got it in one NickNickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.
EDIT: Oddly you can bet on Caroline Lucas or David Cameron as next PM but not Dominic Grieve.0 -
I am aware of that, but I dare say winning the PV by 3m but losing the EC would have been a pretty long odds bet. By one vote, not so much.Pulpstar said:
Not so long, TX is way less GOP than CA is Democrat but both are safe. It's the Dems running up the score in CA in particular that produces the disparity.Anazina said:
Given that Trumpton lost the popular vote by three million votes, it’s hardly surprising that many models gave it to Hillary. I’m not sure what the odds of a 3m PV win - EC loss are, but I suspect they are very long.Barnesian said:
These are simulation models so I doubt if either of them had Clinton at 100% chance of winning. From memory, 538 had her at about 70%.ydoethur said:
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.
Both modelling companies have their reputations at stake so they are trying their best to use up-to-date data and follow reasonable and tested assumptions. They recognise the uncertainty and each give a wide spread. They are the best estimate available. If punters "don't know what to think" they shouldn't bet!0 -
Wise advice, although I should say it’s “informed” gut and not what I want to happen.Barnesian said:
Follow the models not your gut or any anti-model sentiment.Casino_Royale said:
My gut instinct is that the Dems are going to win big in the House.Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
I’m not sure if I should bet on my gut instinct:0 -
California has about the right number of ECVs actually. It is just that it is so heavily Democrat that creates the national vote ECV imbalance.Barnesian said:
California should split into two states and get two more senators and more EC votes.HYUFD said:
Yes, Trump actually led the popular vote until the California votes came inPulpstar said:
Not so long, TX is way less GOP than CA is Democrat but both are safe. It's the Dems running up the score in CA in particular that produces the disparity.Anazina said:
Given that Trumpton lost the popular vote by three million votes, it’s hardly surprising that many models gave it to Hillary. I’m not sure what the odds of a 3m PV win - EC loss are, but I suspect they are very long.Barnesian said:
These are simulation models so I doubt if either of them had Clinton at 100% chance of winning. From memory, 538 had her at about 70%.ydoethur said:
Because punters don't know what to think after recent events?Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
One of those said Clinton had a 100% chance of winning, remember.
Both modelling companies have their reputations at stake so they are trying their best to use up-to-date data and follow reasonable and tested assumptions. They recognise the uncertainty and each give a wide spread. They are the best estimate available. If punters "don't know what to think" they shouldn't bet!0 -
Well that is a first. I haven't heard Grieve mentioned by anyone. He would have far too many mps against him. They may as well co-op Vince, well maybe notBarnesian said:
Agreed. But it means she leaves a growing trail of aggrieved people who though she meant what she said. Grieve (the next temporary PM) is an important example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may have got it in one NickNickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.0 -
Evening all
Spent a glorious afternoon enjoying the racing at Plumpton and not following politics so I can't say Theresa May has had a good day or whether she's played into the hands of the ERG and to be honest I don't really care.
As for Trump he's very much a "Heads I win, Tails you lose" kind of chap.0 -
Leave means Grieve?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is a first. I haven't heard Grieve mentioned by anyone. He would have far too many mps against him. They may as well co-op Vince, well maybe notBarnesian said:
Agreed. But it means she leaves a growing trail of aggrieved people who though she meant what she said. Grieve (the next temporary PM) is an important example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may have got it in one NickNickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.0 -
Fair enough. I think a combination of "informed" gut and modelling is betting wisdom.Casino_Royale said:
Wise advice, although I should say it’s “informed” gut and not what I want to happen.Barnesian said:
Follow the models not your gut or any anti-model sentiment.Casino_Royale said:
My gut instinct is that the Dems are going to win big in the House.Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
I’m not sure if I should bet on my gut instinct:0 -
You would prefer Trumpton to prosper?Casino_Royale said:
Wise advice, although I should say it’s “informed” gut and not what I want to happen.Barnesian said:
Follow the models not your gut or any anti-model sentiment.Casino_Royale said:
My gut instinct is that the Dems are going to win big in the House.Barnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
I’m not sure if I should bet on my gut instinct:0 -
Was that a sarcastic "interesting" or a genuine "interesting"?AndyJS said:Interesting that the Democrats are privately conceding they will gain only between 20 and 35 seats in the House, with 23 needed for a majority.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/us/politics/house-senate-midterms.html0 -
Great idea, and it could work. But I think the Tories are losing their ability to set the agenda.Polruan said:
Rather like Osborne with austerity, the Tories need to redefine Brexit as a journey rather than a destination. Then they can fight future elections claiming that it’s too risky to elect Labour, because the job is only half done, and Labour will throw away all the progress that has been made. Brexit: a present continuous verb, not a noun.MarqueeMark said:
Or perhaps, "Brexit Not Settled".Polruan said:
I don’t think he’s quite right - my reading is that the EU will also be satisfied if the para 49 backstop commitment to ‘full alignment’ is met by the U.K. agreeing to maintain SM/CU alignment in a way which doesn’t seek to divide the four freedoms or take the benefits of market access without the corresponding obligations. So that means financial contributions and continued freedom of movement and will probably have a snappy name like ‘Norway Super Plus’. Or perhaps ‘Not Leaving’.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
I really thought it would be impossible to get anybody fired up about re-opening the 2019 Brexit settlement. Well, May looks set to do the impossible....0 -
1. Gamblers are not a representative sample of votersBarnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
2. Gamblers do not have equality of votes: rich gamblers can bet more than poor gamblers
3. Casual political gamblers do not bet to maximise their income but to advocate a party. (Serious political gamblers bet on value, but there aren't enough of them).0 -
Clinton's popular vote win was also the largest ever margin by a candidate who lost the electoral college.0
-
If there is no deal and parliament wants to take control to prevent it, they first need a VONC in the government. The government falls and the LOTO has 14 days to show he can form a government with the confidence of the house - which he can't. Meanwhile the clock is ticking towards no deal. The polls indicate that neither party will get a majority in a GE and chaos faces us. In this circumstance I think it is possible that a cross-party group could command the confidence of the house if theyBig_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is a first. I haven't heard Grieve mentioned by anyone. He would have far too many mps against him. They may as well co-op Vince, well maybe notBarnesian said:
Agreed. But it means she leaves a growing trail of aggrieved people who though she meant what she said. Grieve (the next temporary PM) is an important example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may have got it in one NickNickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.
a) made it clear that it was temporary, for say six months
b) asked the EU for an extension of A50 for six months
c) agreed to hold a referendum (leave or remain) within the six months with a commitment that this would be the final say on it for twenty years. NB Leave would mean no deal crash out.
d) were led by someone who was competent, a parliamentarian, had the respect of the house and was without personal ambition.
0 -
What a betting opportunity!viewcode said:
1. Gamblers are not a representative sample of votersBarnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
2. Gamblers do not have equality of votes: rich gamblers can bet more than poor gamblers
3. Casual political gamblers do not bet to maximise their income but to advocate a party. (Serious political gamblers bet on value, but there aren't enough of them).0 -
Only me!Recidivist said:
Great idea, and it could work. But I think the Tories are losing their ability to set the agenda.Polruan said:
Rather like Osborne with austerity, the Tories need to redefine Brexit as a journey rather than a destination. Then they can fight future elections claiming that it’s too risky to elect Labour, because the job is only half done, and Labour will throw away all the progress that has been made. Brexit: a present continuous verb, not a noun.MarqueeMark said:
Or perhaps, "Brexit Not Settled".Polruan said:
I don’t think he’s quite right - my reading is that the EU will also be satisfied if the para 49 backstop commitment to ‘full alignment’ is met by the U.K. agreeing to maintain SM/CU alignment in a way which doesn’t seek to divide the four freedoms or take the benefits of market access without the corresponding obligations. So that means financial contributions and continued freedom of movement and will probably have a snappy name like ‘Norway Super Plus’. Or perhaps ‘Not Leaving’.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
I really thought it would be impossible to get anybody fired up about re-opening the 2019 Brexit settlement. Well, May looks set to do the impossible....
People who attended People's Vote Rally 2018 = 700,000
People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,0000 -
People who post nonsensical comparisons = 1Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only me!Recidivist said:
Great idea, and it could work. But I think the Tories are losing their ability to set the agenda.Polruan said:
Rather like Osborne with austerity, the Tories need to redefine Brexit as a journey rather than a destination. Then they can fight future elections claiming that it’s too risky to elect Labour, because the job is only half done, and Labour will throw away all the progress that has been made. Brexit: a present continuous verb, not a noun.MarqueeMark said:
Or perhaps, "Brexit Not Settled".Polruan said:
I don’t think he’s quite right - my reading is that the EU will also be satisfied if the para 49 backstop commitment to ‘full alignment’ is met by the U.K. agreeing to maintain SM/CU alignment in a way which doesn’t seek to divide the four freedoms or take the benefits of market access without the corresponding obligations. So that means financial contributions and continued freedom of movement and will probably have a snappy name like ‘Norway Super Plus’. Or perhaps ‘Not Leaving’.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
I really thought it would be impossible to get anybody fired up about re-opening the 2019 Brexit settlement. Well, May looks set to do the impossible....
People who attended People's Vote Rally 2018 = 700,000
People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,000
EDIT: That's not fair. There are 2 or 3.0 -
Would that be the 'wishful thinking is the bookies' friend' effect in action again?Barnesian said:
Agreed. But it means she leaves a growing trail of aggrieved people who though she meant what she said. Grieve (the next temporary PM) is an important example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may have got it in one NickNickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.
EDIT: Oddly you can bet on Caroline Lucas or David Cameron as next PM but not Dominic Grieve.0 -
Surely "People who post nonsensical comparisons = fish cushions"?Barnesian said:
People who post nonsensical comparisons = 1Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only me!Recidivist said:
Great idea, and it could work. But I think the Tories are losing their ability to set the agenda.Polruan said:
Rather like Osborne with austerity, the Tories need to redefine Brexit as a journey rather than a destination. Then they can fight future elections claiming that it’s too risky to elect Labour, because the job is only half done, and Labour will throw away all the progress that has been made. Brexit: a present continuous verb, not a noun.MarqueeMark said:
Or perhaps, "Brexit Not Settled".Polruan said:
I don’t think he’s quite right - my reading is that the EU will also be satisfied if the para 49 backstop commitment to ‘full alignment’ is met by the U.K. agreeing to maintain SM/CU alignment in a way which doesn’t seek to divide the four freedoms or take the benefits of market access without the corresponding obligations. So that means financial contributions and continued freedom of movement and will probably have a snappy name like ‘Norway Super Plus’. Or perhaps ‘Not Leaving’.Pulpstar said:Sorry to go off topic, but if Preston is right and the EU red line is that the UK must be divided then we MUST leave with no deal:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1054415569896792065
I really thought it would be impossible to get anybody fired up about re-opening the 2019 Brexit settlement. Well, May looks set to do the impossible....
People who attended People's Vote Rally 2018 = 700,000
People who voted Leave in 2016 = 17,400,0000 -
Good point.Barnesian said:
What a betting opportunity!viewcode said:
1. Gamblers are not a representative sample of votersBarnesian said:Any ideas why there is such a mismatch on the chances of the Democrats winning the House between Betfair (65%) and the models?
538 has it as a 86% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
0ptimus has it as a 93% chance.
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/
2. Gamblers do not have equality of votes: rich gamblers can bet more than poor gamblers
3. Casual political gamblers do not bet to maximise their income but to advocate a party. (Serious political gamblers bet on value, but there aren't enough of them).0 -
TM said she will bring back her deal and it is upto the HOC to decide.Barnesian said:
If there is no deal and parliament wants to take control to prevent it, they first need a VONC in the government. The government falls and the LOTO has 14 days to show he can form a government with the confidence of the house - which he can't. Meanwhile the clock is ticking towards no deal. The polls indicate that neither party will get a majority in a GE and chaos faces us. In this circumstance I think it is possible that a cross-party group could command the confidence of the house if theyBig_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is a first. I haven't heard Grieve mentioned by anyone. He would have far too many mps against him. They may as well co-op Vince, well maybe notBarnesian said:
Agreed. But it means she leaves a growing trail of aggrieved people who though she meant what she said. Grieve (the next temporary PM) is an important example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may have got it in one NickNickPalmer said:
Her modus operandi is to say whatever is needed to satisfy the current audience, and kick any awkward decisions down the road. I imagine she will agree a plausible scenario with the EU on how the backstop will end, everyone will solemnly confirm that they don't want it to go on indefinitely, and Parliament will let it through. Then we can spend the next few years peacefully debating whether the necessary conditions have been met.Polruan said:
I’ve just been trying to summarise today’s statement for a client newsletter and reached roughly the same conclusion, but still wonder if I’m missing something. Did May really say that her ‘improved offer’ was to keep the UK in partial alignment with NI, but that it could only be temporary and there could be no barriers between the UK and NI? Because that doesn’t seem to offer anything new at all to meet the concerns raised the EU.
a) made it clear that it was temporary, for say six months
b) asked the EU for an extension of A50 for six months
c) agreed to hold a referendum (leave or remain) within the six months with a commitment that this would be the final say on it for twenty years. NB Leave would mean no deal crash out.
d) were led by someone who was competent, a parliamentarian, had the respect of the house and was without personal ambition.
No deal is unacceptable and in those circumstances a second referendum becomes almost inevitable0
