politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Nation once again ? – Part 1 The economics
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Nation once again ? – Part 1 The economics
The fallout from the Brexit vote has led to more interest in the future of Northern Ireland than is usual. In particular the issue of a one state Ireland has bubbled back to the top of the political discussion with, as ever, strong views on either side
Comments
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Thanks for the header, Alanbrooke!0
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Thanks for writing this up. Could you provide the actual numbers and their sources? For example, what's the 30% "support" number specifically?0
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The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.0 -
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Thanks for the article, looking forward to the rest of the series.0
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The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.0 -
As YS says, it is further evidence of the remarkable shifts taking place in the basis of British politics, with Tories exchanging traditional educated middle class voters and support in business for a stronger grip on the elderly and new support from C2s.0
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Cameron’s memoirs were meant to be published this month but have been delayed until next year. The early signs are ominous. A book has to be coherent if it is to find a readership: its opening must prefigure its conclusion. As described in the publishing press, Cameron’s effort will have no consistency. He will tell the story of the formation of the coalition, his contributions to economic, welfare and foreign policy, his surprise victory in the 2015 election and then – as if from nowhere – the conventional memoir will end with the author carelessly deciding he will settle the European question, without planning a campaign or preparing an argument and, instead, launching a crisis that will last for decades. Nothing will make sense. Nothing will hang together. It’s as if a romcom were to conclude with serial killers murdering the cooing lovers or Hilary Mantel were to have aliens invade Tudor England on the last page of her Thomas Cromwell trilogy0
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I suspect that's rather down to the EU and their misbegotten asymmetric backstop. The FT, organ of Remania, has published two articles in as many days criticising it.YellowSubmarine said:No Deal is now surely dead.
On topic - fascinating thread and look forward to the others in the series. As ever with "simple " solutions "Its a bit more complicated than that".0 -
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.0 -
Good article. The strain would be very large indeed.
However,Germany itself has been through a similar disruptive unification process and so the motivations and one off costs are well understood exactly where Ireland most needs them to be well understood. Ireland would get a lot of leeway from the EU on what would essentially be treated as a one-off cost.
If English nationalists turn their backs on Northern Ireland to pursue Brexit instead, sooner or later the practical difficulties of unification will be overruled by the emotion. The younger generation in particular will be watching closely.0 -
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.0 -
Surely the advantage that Germany had was that the vast majority of people on both sides wanted reunification. OK, they might have wanted different economic systems in the reunified country, but either way they were going to be ruled by people with whom they identified.AlastairMeeks said:Good article. The strain would be very large indeed.
However,Germany itself has been through a similar disruptive unification process and so the motivations and one off costs are well understood exactly where Ireland most needs them to be well understood. Ireland would get a lot of leeway from the EU on what would essentially be treated as a one-off cost.
If English nationalists turn their backs on Northern Ireland to pursue Brexit instead, sooner or later the practical difficulties of unification will be overruled by the emotion. The younger generation in particular will be watching closely.
That isn’t necessarily the case with Ireland, especially Northern Ireland.
I’m no expert on the country, but my strong impression is that there’s a deep cultural difference between the two communities, and what is now the majority in the North, which would be a minority in a United Ireland, is deeply hostile to the idea of being ruled by the South. Neither may be as ‘religious’ as they were, but I suspect that acceptance of unity among a significant minority in the North is an idea which is going to be a lot ‘later’ in coming.0 -
Most people will have arrived by train. Even from London.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.0 -
Hundreds of thousands “a London bubble”? There’s a good definition of parochial for you right there.
You do have to wonder about these people who think that the views of those who live in by far the largest and richest city in the country somehow don’t count.0 -
London is the capital. People seem to struggle with that.
No part of the UK is particularly representative of any other. The South East is nothing like the South West. Yorkshire is unlike the North West. London is unlike the Midlands.
It doesn’t mattter. If you want to make your point, you go to London.
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asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
A bubble made up of substantially more people who voted for the DUP, of course, which makes it difficult to defend the influence of the latter group while dismissing these people’s views out of hand.0 -
To quote Danny Dyer, 'Where is he? Twat!'IanB2 said:Cameron’s memoirs were meant to be published this month but have been delayed until next year. The early signs are ominous. A book has to be coherent if it is to find a readership: its opening must prefigure its conclusion. As described in the publishing press, Cameron’s effort will have no consistency. He will tell the story of the formation of the coalition, his contributions to economic, welfare and foreign policy, his surprise victory in the 2015 election and then – as if from nowhere – the conventional memoir will end with the author carelessly deciding he will settle the European question, without planning a campaign or preparing an argument and, instead, launching a crisis that will last for decades. Nothing will make sense. Nothing will hang together. It’s as if a romcom were to conclude with serial killers murdering the cooing lovers or Hilary Mantel were to have aliens invade Tudor England on the last page of her Thomas Cromwell trilogy
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Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de00 -
The "pieds noirs" could leave the 6 counties when Eire becomes a complete nation once again. The problem at present is exacerbated by the Maybot's dependence on red hands, as is well illustrated by Chris Cairns' cartoon at:OldKingCole said:
Surely the advantage that Germany had was that the vast majority of people on both sides wanted reunification. OK, they might have wanted different economic systems in the reunified country, but either way they were going to be ruled by people with whom they identified.AlastairMeeks said:Good article. The strain would be very large indeed.
However,Germany itself has been through a similar disruptive unification process and so the motivations and one off costs are well understood exactly where Ireland most needs them to be well understood. Ireland would get a lot of leeway from the EU on what would essentially be treated as a one-off cost.
If English nationalists turn their backs on Northern Ireland to pursue Brexit instead, sooner or later the practical difficulties of unification will be overruled by the emotion. The younger generation in particular will be watching closely.
That isn’t necessarily the case with Ireland, especially Northern Ireland.
I’m no expert on the country, but my strong impression is that there’s a deep cultural difference between the two communities, and what is now the majority in the North, which would be a minority in a United Ireland, is deeply hostile to the idea of being ruled by the South. Neither may be as ‘religious’ as they were, but I suspect that acceptance of unity among a significant minority in the North is an idea which is going to be a lot ‘later’ in coming.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/friends-like-ours/0 -
If as reported, that's extraordinary.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de00 -
That's a rather pathetic attack line. Leavers should take note of the strength of feeling out there.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
A few months ago, after another remain rally, leavers on here were taking the p*ss out of the fact relatively few people turned up. Now, when they do, it's a London bubble thing. Many leavers are in danger of being exactly what they accused remainers of being: complacent.
I doubt yesterday's rally will change anything. But it's stupid to ignore that many voices.0 -
Some of them are the descendants of people who migrated from the South in the early 20’s. I doubt they’d want to move to rUK, TBH.daodao said:
The "pieds noirs" could leave the 6 counties when Eire becomes a complete nation once again. The problem at present is exacerbated by the Maybot's dependence on red hands, as is well illustrated by Chris Cairns' cartoon at:OldKingCole said:
Surely the advantage that Germany had was that the vast majority of people on both sides wanted reunification. OK, they might have wanted different economic systems in the reunified country, but either way they were going to be ruled by people with whom they identified.AlastairMeeks said:Good article. The strain would be very large indeed.
However,Germany itself has been through a similar disruptive unification process and so the motivations and one off costs are well understood exactly where Ireland most needs them to be well understood. Ireland would get a lot of leeway from the EU on what would essentially be treated as a one-off cost.
If English nationalists turn their backs on Northern Ireland to pursue Brexit instead, sooner or later the practical difficulties of unification will be overruled by the emotion. The younger generation in particular will be watching closely.
That isn’t necessarily the case with Ireland, especially Northern Ireland.
I’m no expert on the country, but my strong impression is that there’s a deep cultural difference between the two communities, and what is now the majority in the North, which would be a minority in a United Ireland, is deeply hostile to the idea of being ruled by the South. Neither may be as ‘religious’ as they were, but I suspect that acceptance of unity among a significant minority in the North is an idea which is going to be a lot ‘later’ in coming.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/friends-like-ours/0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Good article, Mr. Brooke.
When I was getting glasses for the first time (I was still at primary school) my optician was an Irishman. Perhaps the only time I had a chap do it. Anyway, I was quieter then than I am now, but we got talking (I quite liked his accent). When I emerged with the prescription, my mother, who had been waiting outside, was relieved as we'd apparently been talking for so long she was getting worried something was wrong.
F1: my bet was seven-hundredths off being very green, and nine-thousandths off being green each way. That's a tiny bit frustrating. Not quite as bad as when I backed Kubica for pole in Monaco and he was two-thousandths off, but close.0 -
Indeed: 'Where are all these racists morons coming from? It’s like they’ve appeared from a hole in the ground since the Brexit vote. Come on let’s get this disgusting man found and action taken against him.'CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de00 -
Its not an "attack line" its basic maths.JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
It was a big London demonstration - and as the seat of government, parliament and the commentariat will have an impact. Whether it has Nissan workers in Sunderland regretting their vote is another matter.0 -
As the Brexit vote showed, though, it’s not all about economics - a point Alanbrooke himself has made many times. The way Irish reunification would be handled from a British perspective would depend on who was in government. There is also the immensely strong, large and, these days, wealthy Irish American community to throw into the ring (that also needs to be factored in to a No Deal scenario. Good luck trying to get any UK/US trade deal through Congress if we are perceived to be harming Irish interests).
It could be that the biggest Irish reunification challenge would be absorbibg large numbers of largely unproductive, highly sectarian Ulster Scots into the mainland. If Ireland reunifies before Scotland departs, it may make Scottish independence harder to achieve ;-)0 -
What hasn't been discussed is the numbers turning out for the concurrent 'leave means leave' rally. Presumably, the 52-48% split was reflected in the relative sizes of the two events?JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line. Leavers should take note of the strength of feeling out there.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
A few months ago, after another remain rally, leavers on here were taking the p*ss out of the fact relatively few people turned up. Now, when they do, it's a London bubble thing. Many leavers are in danger of being exactly what they accused remainers of being: complacent.
I doubt yesterday's rally will change anything. But it's stupid to ignore that many voices.0 -
How they got to it, I cannot say, but there were folk from all over Britain at the march. Welsh, Scottisk, Irish and every strand of English. Much more middle class and middle aged than most demos, but far from exclusively so.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.0 -
ydoethur said:
If as reported, that's extraordinary.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de0
Inevitably its on video:
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1053743128564416512
Having threatened violence the abuser was a threat to flight safety and should have been removed.0 -
Any sign of the SWP?Foxy said:
How they got to it, I cannot say, but there were folk from all over Britain at the march. Welsh, Scottisk, Irish and every strand of English. Much more middle class and middle aged than most demos, but far from exclusively so.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
Aren’t most demos largely middle class?
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If that's in the UK surely if he is identified he will face criminal charges. Might Ryanair also be in trouble?CarlottaVance said:ydoethur said:
If as reported, that's extraordinary.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de0
Inevitably its on video:
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1053743128564416512
Having threatened violence the abuser was a threat to flight safety and should have been removed.0 -
Disgusting. He should have been thrown off.CarlottaVance said:ydoethur said:
If as reported, that's extraordinary.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de0
Inevitably its on video:
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1053743128564416512
Having threatened violence the abuser was a threat to flight safety and should have been removed.0 -
what a great article - look forward to the other parts - I do wonder if the EU wouldn’t consider direct input if a border poll went the “right” way - like Kosovo just not so many soldiers just a kot of EU posters and new motorways - having been abandoned by the UK would loyalists really return to violence - for what? what the aim be? I think if chucked enough cash unionists could learn to love their new country quite quickly.0
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Ryanair has remained silent, but clearly the cabin crew weren't on top of it.ydoethur said:
If that's in the UK surely if he is identified he will face criminal charges. Might Ryanair also be in trouble?CarlottaVance said:ydoethur said:
If as reported, that's extraordinary.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de0
Inevitably its on video:
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1053743128564416512
Having threatened violence the abuser was a threat to flight safety and should have been removed.
It was a Barcelona to Stansted flight, before departure in Barcelona (doors still open so easy to deplane him).
It would cost a fortune to buy this much bad publicity0 -
I see the march as the start of something. It will not lead to a second referendum, but it may well lead to a coherent grassroot response to the total failure of our political class over the last decade. So, if ordinary, leave-voting Nissan workers lose their jobs because they voted for a Brexit that does not get delivered they may find they have a lot more in common with ordinary Remain-voters than they might previously have thought. And so the movement will grow. Solidarity can be a very powerful force.CarlottaVance said:
Its not an "attack line" its basic maths.JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
It was a big London demonstration - and as the seat of government, parliament and the commentariat will have an impact. Whether it has Nissan workers in Sunderland regretting their vote is another matter.
0 -
Yeah, it's an attack line. And a stupid one - unless you're saying that the only people who made their way down to London went on the coaches? In fact, the presence of the coaches shows there was a demand from all over the country, and I'd expect the trains and other travel services to have been used.CarlottaVance said:
Its not an "attack line" its basic maths.JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
It was a big London demonstration - and as the seat of government, parliament and the commentariat will have an impact. Whether it has Nissan workers in Sunderland regretting their vote is another matter.
It might be 'basic maths' in your mind, but it's 'basic maths' based on a stupid assumption.0 -
I'm going to go to Hull for this, but I was wondering if he was a leaver. But he's obviously a remainer: for that flight at least ....CarlottaVance said:
Ryanair has remained silent, but clearly the cabin crew weren't on top of it.ydoethur said:
If that's in the UK surely if he is identified he will face criminal charges. Might Ryanair also be in trouble?CarlottaVance said:ydoethur said:
If as reported, that's extraordinary.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile Ryanair moves the victim of racist abuse, rather than off-loading the abusive passenger:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ryanair-london-flight-racist-man_us_5bcbb441e4b0a8f17eed1de0
Inevitably its on video:
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1053743128564416512
Having threatened violence the abuser was a threat to flight safety and should have been removed.
It was a Barcelona to Stansted flight, before departure in Barcelona (doors still open so easy to deplane him).
It would cost a fortune to buy this much bad publicity
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Did 8% of the London population march yesterday then?CarlottaVance said:
Its not an "attack line" its basic maths.JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
It was a big London demonstration - and as the seat of government, parliament and the commentariat will have an impact. Whether it has Nissan workers in Sunderland regretting their vote is another matter.
Basic maths. Snort.0 -
There would be huge investment from the US. Politically it would be impossible for a US president and Congress not to help ensure a united Ireland was a success, while countless individual wealthy Irish Americans would also get involved. Don’t forget - even Donald Trump attended Sinn Fein fundraisers back in the day.kingbongo said:what a great article - look forward to the other parts - I do wonder if the EU wouldn’t consider direct input if a border poll went the “right” way - like Kosovo just not so many soldiers just a kot of EU posters and new motorways - having been abandoned by the UK would loyalists really return to violence - for what? what the aim be? I think if chucked enough cash unionists could learn to love their new country quite quickly.
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I fail to see why the size of the events are of any relevance. What matters is the number of people who voted.ThomasNashe said:
What hasn't been discussed is the numbers turning out for the concurrent 'leave means leave' rally. Presumably, the 52-48% split was reflected in the relative sizes of the two events?JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line. Leavers should take note of the strength of feeling out there.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
A few months ago, after another remain rally, leavers on here were taking the p*ss out of the fact relatively few people turned up. Now, when they do, it's a London bubble thing. Many leavers are in danger of being exactly what they accused remainers of being: complacent.
I doubt yesterday's rally will change anything. But it's stupid to ignore that many voices.0 -
Every ones views count equally, the educated people marching in london and the retired working class voters in seaside towns.AlastairMeeks said:Hundreds of thousands “a London bubble”? There’s a good definition of parochial for you right there.
You do have to wonder about these people who think that the views of those who live in by far the largest and richest city in the country somehow don’t count.
The people in London's view don't count any more, it doesn't matter how rich they are.
That's why there are elections.0 -
You mean like the 1/2m who marched in the Countryside Alliance march or the 1.5m on the Iraq War march?JosiasJessop said:
I doubt yesterday's rally will change anything. But it's stupid to ignore that many voices.
Big marches have little impact on official govt policy.
Where it could have an impact is around the margins... the ERG should have been taking notice yesterday. Continue to bugger about and you risk Brexit entirely.
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No one I have interacted with in the real world yesterday or today has mentioned the march with anything approaching passion, either negatively or positively. If you're a passionate Remainer or Leaver I suppose it might mean something to you, but most people don't seem too fussed. It'll put remainers on a high, which can only be good for them and gives leavers something to bitch about. The rest of us will barely recall it.JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line. Leavers should take note of the strength of feeling out there.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
A few months ago, after another remain rally, leavers on here were taking the p*ss out of the fact relatively few people turned up. Now, when they do, it's a London bubble thing. Many leavers are in danger of being exactly what they accused remainers of being: complacent.
I doubt yesterday's rally will change anything. But it's stupid to ignore that many voices.0 -
Yes, I think so. Yesterday had the germ of a movement to reject the populists of left and right.SouthamObserver said:
I see the march as the start of something. It will not lead to a second referendum, but it may well lead to a coherent grassroot response to the total failure of our political class over the last decade. So, if ordinary, leave-voting Nissan workers lose their jobs because they voted for a Brexit that does not get delivered they may find they have a lot more in common with ordinary Remain-voters than they might previously have thought. And so the movement will grow. Solidarity can be a very powerful force.CarlottaVance said:
Its not an "attack line" its basic maths.JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for th
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
It was a big London demonstration - and as the seat of government, parliament and the commentariat will have an impact. Whether it has Nissan workers in Sunderland regretting their vote is another matter.
Leavers are petulant about it today, but have completely failed to deliver what they promised. In time we will make Britain sane again.
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1053904970989264896?s=19
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I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
That being said, I also reckon that just using coach numbers is not going to get an accurate number for those from out of London. There are apparently other ways to get into town: cars, regular buses, trains, etc. etc. etc. Based on the entirely unrepresentative sample of my Facebook feed, there were a lot of non-Londoners there.
This won't derail Brexit. This won't make any appreciable difference to the likelihood of No Deal. What it does do is emphasise the very deep divisions in society that have been caused by the government's handling of Brexit.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.0 -
On further reflection, yesterday should have girded the loins of moderate Labour to break away. Many on the march should have been their natural constituency.
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Many people seem to assume that the referendum result should be frozen in aspic, that 'The Vote must be respected', and all the ensuing chaos is irrelevant. They're wrong. It's a fundamental duty of governments to work to ensure the economic wellbeing of its citizens - and this Government is failing miserably to do that.0
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F1: been writing the pre-race tosh. May wait a little while for the extra (groups and 'handicap') markets to appear, as I quite like those.0
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I've already said the march itself won't make a difference. However, I also think it's stupid to ignore what happened yesterday: a wise politician would try to throw them a bone or two.RobinWiggs said:
You mean like the 1/2m who marched in the Countryside Alliance march or the 1.5m on the Iraq War march?JosiasJessop said:
I doubt yesterday's rally will change anything. But it's stupid to ignore that many voices.
Big marches have little impact on official govt policy.
Where it could have an impact is around the margins... the ERG should have been taking notice yesterday. Continue to bugger about and you risk Brexit entirely.
Sadly, we have precious few 'wise' politicians, and all politicians are hamstrung by reality.0 -
On topic, certainly the economics of Irish unification are bad, but that never stopped a political decision! rUK Britons may very well prefer £10 billion to the EU than to NI.
The ROI economy is far more creative and dynamic than the six counties, which looks increasingly like a backwater in Ireland, when once it was the economic powerhouse.
The real challenge is more political. If unification is wanted, it will happen never mind the economics. I wonder if a 52% vote is all that is needed there too?0 -
Make Britain Sane Again.
That has a ring to it.0 -
My Youtube-fu is failing me, but there was a great video on YouTube a few years back showing the techniques and maths of how they try to estimate the size of such crowds.rcs1000 said:I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.
That being said, I also reckon that just using coach numbers is not going to get an accurate number for those from out of London. There are apparently other ways to get into town: cars, regular buses, trains, etc. etc. etc. Based on the entirely unrepresentative sample of my Facebook feed, there were a lot of non-Londoners there.
(snip)
I think someone might have linked it on here.0 -
When you’re attracting equal disdain from the Brexit-backing far left and hard right you know you’re on the side of the angels ;-)Foxy said:
Yes, I think so. Yesterday had the germ of a movement to reject the populists of left and right.SouthamObserver said:
I see the march as the start of something. It will not lead to a second referendum, but it may well lead to a coherent grassroot response to the total failure of our political class over the last decade. So, if ordinary, leave-voting Nissan workers lose their jobs because they voted for a Brexit that does not get delivered they may find they have a lot more in common with ordinary Remain-voters than they might previously have thought. And so the movement will grow. Solidarity can be a very powerful force.CarlottaVance said:
Its not an "attack line" its basic maths.JosiasJessop said:
That's a rather pathetic attack line.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for th
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
It was a big London demonstration - and as the seat of government, parliament and the commentariat will have an impact. Whether it has Nissan workers in Sunderland regretting their vote is another matter.
Leavers are petulant about it today, but have completely failed to deliver what they promised. In time we will make Britain sane again.
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1053904970989264896?s=19
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The UK government provides a £10 billion or so fiscal transfer to Northern Ireland (infamously boosted by a billion thanks to the Conservative/DUP deal). The total Northern Irish economy is about £40 billion, hence the 30% support figure. That percentage doesn't particularly inform the costs of Irish reunification. The key question is whether the rest of Ireland has the appetite to fund the £10 billion, which it could afford, particularly if the EU chips in. There will be other parts of Ireland with economies that underperform as much as Northern Ireland. It's possible that Northern Ireland may do better economically in the longer term as part of a larger Island than as an outpost of a different Island.edmundintokyo said:Thanks for writing this up. Could you provide the actual numbers and their sources? For example, what's the 30% "support" number specifically?
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Despite the very good economic indicators on employment/unemployment/youth unemployment etc? The predicted economic catastrophe just from the referendum result has not materialised. The medium term economic impact of leaving is pure conjecture until and unless we have the details of a deal in place. A reasonable FTA is a very different prospect to diamond brexit.ThomasNashe said:Many people seem to assume that the referendum result should be frozen in aspic, that 'The Vote must be respected', and all the ensuing chaos is irrelevant. They're wrong. It's a fundamental duty of governments to work to ensure the economic wellbeing of its citizens - and this Government is failing miserably to do that.
It is also a duty of government to balance all competing interests and not just focus on the economics. The damage done to civil society from a perceived political elite overturning the biggest democratic vote in our history is possibly incalculable.
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Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.
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As I keep saying, do not forget the US in all of this. It would play a major role in any Irish reunification - both at an institutional and individual level.FF43 said:
The UK government provides a £10 billion or so fiscal transfer to Northern Ireland (infamously boosted by a billion thanks to the Conservative/DUP deal). The total Northern Irish economy is about £40 billion, hence the 30% support figure. That percentage doesn't particularly inform the costs of Irish reunification. The key question is whether the rest of Ireland has the appetite to fund the £10 billion, which it could afford, particularly if the EU chips in. There will be other parts of Ireland with economies that underperform as much as Northern Ireland. It's possible that Northern Ireland may do better economically in the longer term as part of a larger Island economically than as an outpost of a different Island.edmundintokyo said:Thanks for writing this up. Could you provide the actual numbers and their sources? For example, what's the 30% "support" number specifically?
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Mr. Roger, I was unaware I was an associate member of the Swedish Nymphomaniacs Club...0
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I fear you have little in common with the decent people here in the UK ...Roger said:Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.0 -
People I spoke to on the March long enough to find out where they were fromYellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
As for the middle class nature of the march that's what should terrify the Tories. The march wasn't backed by the bedrock of Britain's civil society - the churches, the unions and the charities. Nor was it backed by the professional marching class - the Corbynite far left. While I accept the 700k aren't representitive of Britain - they are more politically engaged than average neither were they anything close to the usual suspects of central London protest. And it's that disproportionate engagement that will give them clout in future elections with lower turnouts than the 2016 referendum. Which is almost all modern elections.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
Twickenham
Fulham
Newcastle
Bournemouth
East Grinstead
Crowborough
Manchester
Slight bias to the south likely because I arrived by train at Victoria and there were so many using the same route we formed a modestly impressive march simply getting from the station to the starting point and were still bunched together.
It was sort of a middle class crowd. It was the sort of people you see at the supermarket rather than at a football match or the opera. So not a totally representative demographic. But still quite a big one. And very definitely not just a London one.0 -
Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.0 -
It perhaps looks a little different from a grey wet Grimsby, though Rog.Roger said:Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.0 -
Maybe this lack of awarenesss was a cock-up on your part?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, I was unaware I was an associate member of the Swedish Nymphomaniacs Club...
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It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.rcs1000 said:
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:The irony is the short term winner of the extraordinary People's Vote march is Theresa May. No Deal is now surely dead. If 700k hit the streets over what is basically procedural chaos and a vacuum how many would protest genuine economic disruption ? If the march strengthens the hand of the Tory pragmatists it might actually increase the chances of Brexit happening by avoiding a No Deal crisis.
If you are serious about constructing a Tory majority in the Commons in 2022 that march yesterday shoukd worry you and provoke a Brexit compromise. We'll see but I suspect Theresa May may have had the better day of it than Corbyn did in the short term.
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
That being said, I also reckon that just using coach numbers is not going to get an accurate number for those from out of London. There are apparently other ways to get into town: cars, regular buses, trains, etc. etc. etc. Based on the entirely unrepresentative sample of my Facebook feed, there were a lot of non-Londoners there.
This won't derail Brexit. This won't make any appreciable difference to the likelihood of No Deal. What it does do is emphasise the very deep divisions in society that have been caused by the government's handling of Brexit.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
0 -
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.DavidL said:Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.0 -
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.Foxy said:
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.rcs1000 said:
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
That being said, I also reckon that just using coach numbers is not going to get an accurate number for those from out of London. There are apparently other ways to get into town: cars, regular buses, trains, etc. etc. etc. Based on the entirely unrepresentative sample of my Facebook feed, there were a lot of non-Londoners there.
This won't derail Brexit. This won't make any appreciable difference to the likelihood of No Deal. What it does do is emphasise the very deep divisions in society that have been caused by the government's handling of Brexit.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
0 -
If the march was taking place in a context of another settled direction, it would be irrelevant. But it's happening in a chaotic Brexit where those taking the opposite Leave line are becoming increasingly hysterical. Business is very concerned about Brexit with investment in UK companies drastically being reduced, so it could have a common interest with the marchers that we can't go on like this. The country has taken a wrong direction and we need to change it.SouthamObserver said:
I see the march as the start of something. It will not lead to a second referendum, but it may well lead to a coherent grassroot response to the total failure of our political class over the last decade. So, if ordinary, leave-voting Nissan workers lose their jobs because they voted for a Brexit that does not get delivered they may find they have a lot more in common with ordinary Remain-voters than they might previously have thought. And so the movement will grow. Solidarity can be a very powerful force.0 -
Not sure how it becomes a trading hub. The geography is all against it but we certainly need to focus on how it is going to survive in the future and how it is going to persuade its young to stay.ydoethur said:
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.DavidL said:Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.0 -
The real problem with Brexit is not that the vote was so narrow. It's that a very large number of the losing side are simply unwilling to accept the verdict. The latter day 'Dolschtoss' theories we have seen on this thread are troubling, but not nearly as troubling as what this says about our democratic system and how we have got into the habit of talking past rather than talking to each other. We have come to the situation where huge blocks of people are not merely unable but even unwilling to consider the other side might have a point (and that goes for Leavers and Remainers). For example, I actually try to understand and evaluate the point of view of Leavers, even though I am a Remainer. For that, my fellow Remainers have, among other things, accused me of dishonesty, xenophobia and insanity. They also accuse me (this is the one thing I have in common with Corbyn) of being a Leaver pretending to be a Remainer. And they then wonder why they are completely failing to win over genuine Leavers while hardening attitudes against the EU. That said, the Leavers who accuse Remainers of treason, arrogance, Nazism and anti-democratism are not exactly helping their own case.Foxy said:It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
Tony Blair with his persistent (and usually false) demonisation of his opponents probably bears a large part of the blame, although that's not to absolve Thatcher who used similar tactics (with a good deal more validity).
It's very worrying, and I don't see how either May, or the even more tribal Corbyn, can possibly break this vicious circle.0 -
Invisibles would be a key thing. Access to the EU, but continued regulation under British contract law? That would be popular.DavidL said:
Not sure how it becomes a trading hub. The geography is all against it but we certainly need to focus on how it is going to survive in the future and how it is going to persuade its young to stay.ydoethur said:
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.DavidL said:Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
But also if the British mainland becomes a land bridge for Ireland then there are many imports could be pushed through. This is why it will never happen!0 -
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:TheJezziah said:
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.Foxy said:
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.rcs1000 said:
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
1) Remainers
2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema
3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.0 -
Meanwhile Nigel could only get 1600 out to march in Harrogate. Let's be fair though, its difficult to demonstrate with zimmer frames.0
-
As I said yesterday referendums have proven a spectacularly useless way of resolving our differences. They do not change minds, they do not bring us together, they do not create accountability for the campaigns and their outcome is never accepted as valid by the losers. Indyref is exactly the same. We really need to avoid them in future.ydoethur said:
The real problem with Brexit is not that the vote was so narrow. It's that a very large number of the losing side are simply unwilling to accept the verdict. The latter day 'Dolschtoss' theories we have seen on this thread are troubling, but not nearly as troubling as what this says about our democratic system and how we have got into the habit of talking past rather than talking to each other. We have come to the situation where huge blocks of people are not merely unable but even unwilling to consider the other side might have a point (and that goes for Leavers and Remainers). For example, I actually try to understand and evaluate the point of view of Leavers, even though I am a Remainer. For that, my fellow Remainers have, among other things, accused me of dishonesty, xenophobia and insanity. They also accuse me (this is the one thing I have in common with Corbyn) of being a Leaver pretending to be a Remainer. And they then wonder why they are completely failing to win over genuine Leavers while hardening attitudes against the EU. That said, the Leavers who accuse Remainers of treason, arrogance, Nazism and anti-democratism are not exactly helping their own case.Foxy said:It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
Tony Blair with his persistent (and usually false) demonisation of his opponents probably bears a large part of the blame, although that's not to absolve Thatcher who used similar tactics (with a good deal more validity).
It's very worrying, and I don't see how either May, or the even more tribal Corbyn, can possibly break this vicious circle.0 -
Very interesting header Alanbrooke! No wonder you decided to seek fame and fortune accross the water! It's a choice of a basket case or a bubble. I have to admit it's all new to me despite having worked for both North and South. In the South for some large international clients -Dell for example-but I never asked the question 'what's the Irish connection?'. It's a pleasant country to work for. Good ideas and plenty of money. The Norh by contrast tends to be more parochial. British clients with an 'Irish' before the title.
You've made it much clearer.0 -
Not on terms of No Deal Brexit, voters oppose that in the polls, if that is the end result it will not be the will of the people which was Brexit but with a pragmatic dealRoger said:Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.0 -
That sounds like a recipie for the NI backstop to me.ydoethur said:
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.DavidL said:Alanbrooke makes an important point about the strength of the Eire economy. Basically it’s GDP is much less than its GNP because the majority of the profits generated by its output flow elsewhere, typically to the USA, rather than remaining in Eire itself. West Germany was in a very different position with GDP exceeding GNP, substantial capital reserves to fall back on and a bulletproof credit rating.
Even so the absorption of East Germany was a challenge and stretched their mighty economy for a couple of decades. What would fix the NI economy? What can fix it? Those evil little bastards with bombs and guns (or friends, as Jeremy called them) did far more economic damage than physical damage but 20 years on there is no sign of that damage being undone. It is a massive failure of economic policy which has largely been ignored. NI has a good education system, reasonable infrastructure and horrific PR. It’s politics is dysfunctional as shown by the fact that the Assembly has not even sat for years now, and completely dominated by dinosaurs focused on religious differences.
This, as @Alanbrooke points out, is the real problem of NI. Brexit and the border is just another distraction.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
The WA proposal gives the province the best deal in these islands. Single Market with no costs.0 -
Roger, you are a champagne socialist, living mostly overseas tell us what we should be doing... Not the best place to pontificate from. Do you pay UK taxes on all your income?Roger said:Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.
I wasn't angry about the march, I had no idea it was taking place until I saw someone with a placard heading towards Crawley station. I knew not what it said as the wording was on the other side, I just thought, some new pointless demonstration.
We voted out, end of. I don't like it, I voted In, but I have to live with the consequences of a democratic vote.0 -
This is clearly why they've plummeted in the polls - oh! Wait...Foxy said:
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:TheJezziah said:
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.Foxy said:
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.rcs1000 said:
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
1) Remainers
2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema
3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.0 -
Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.0
-
Let's be fair, only losers need to march to change things....Fenman said:Meanwhile Nigel could only get 1600 out to march in Harrogate. Let's be fair though, its difficult to demonstrate with zimmer frames.
0 -
The biggest of these is the lack of accountability for the campaigns. Unionists in Scotland have failed to deliver as much as Brexiteers nationwide.DavidL said:
As I said yesterday referendums have proven a spectacularly useless way of resolving our differences. They do not change minds, they do not bring us together, they do not create accountability for the campaigns and their outcome is never accepted as valid by the losers. Indyref is exactly the same. We really need to avoid them in future.ydoethur said:
The real problem with Brexit is not that the vote was so narrow. It's that a very large number of the losing side are simply unwilling to accept the verdict. The latter day 'Dolschtoss' theories we have seen on this thread are troubling, but not nearly as troubling as what this says about our democratic system and how we have got into the habit of talking past rather than talking to each other. We have come to the situation where huge blocks of people are not merely unable but even unwilling to consider the other side might have a point (and that goes for Leavers and Remainers). For example, I actually try to understand and evaluate the point of view of Leavers, even though I am a Remainer. For that, my fellow Remainers have, among other things, accused me of dishonesty, xenophobia and insanity. They also accuse me (this is the one thing I have in common with Corbyn) of being a Leaver pretending to be a Remainer. And they then wonder why they are completely failing to win over genuine Leavers while hardening attitudes against the EU. That said, the Leavers who accuse Remainers of treason, arrogance, Nazism and anti-democratism are not exactly helping their own case.Foxy said:It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
Tony Blair with his persistent (and usually false) demonisation of his opponents probably bears a large part of the blame, although that's not to absolve Thatcher who used similar tactics (with a good deal more validity).
It's very worrying, and I don't see how either May, or the even more tribal Corbyn, can possibly break this vicious circle.0 -
Post Brexit, if you read my post correctly!felix said:
This is clearly why they've plummeted in the polls - oh! Wait...Foxy said:
Yes, it is true that the majority of Tory members are Leavers, a significant proportion of their voters are not. The three areas of lost voters post Brexit will include:TheJezziah said:
One big difference between Labours Iraq war and the Tories Brexit is that Labour did it against many of their own supporters whilst the Tories are largely in favour of Brexit.Foxy said:
It is hard to judge the size of the crowd when in the middle of it, but even harder from California.rcs1000 said:
I'd be staggered if the real turnout was as high as 750,000. I suspect that, in six months time when the data scientists have crunched the numbers, the actual size of the march will be estimated at 250-350,000.CarlottaVance said:
150 reportedly. Or around 7,500 people. 1% of the reported total.OldKingCole said:
Coach-loads from all over the country, though.asjohnstone said:
The March is a London bubble thing, nothing more.YellowSubmarine said:
I doubt it has moved the minds of northern labour mps representing areas that voted leave.
London isn't particularly representative of the rest of England.
In short, it's all a bit meh.
The Iraq war did not sink the Labour Party - but it did create the atmosphere that allowed Corbyn to become Leader. It is the aftershocks from Brexit that have the most potential to be dangerous to the United Kingdom.
My experience of crowds is from football grounds dispersing. It was about 10 times the size of the biggest of those that I have been in. Whether it was 700 000 or a mere half million is hard to judge.
Big enough to demonstrate the complete failure of the Brexiteers to convince though. The backlash and aftershocks of Brexit are not going to be good for the Tories. The Iraq war was survived by Labour, but the mendacity and arrogance of the leadership makes them pariahs. The parallel with Brexit is there to be seen.
I still see the potential negative effects for the Tories but I wonder how that will change the impact of it.
1) Remainers
2) WWC voters who support Leave but otherwise find the Tories anathema
3) Those wanting competence in government.
Certainly there needs to be alternatives to vote for, and apart from 2) not much Corbyn can appeal to, but it doesn't look good for the Tories.0 -
I agree the Republic of Ireland will only be able to take on Northern Ireland at significant economic cost and even if the eventual Catholic majority want that, there can be little doubt a hard border in Ireland will increase significantly Catholic support in Northern Ireland for a United Ireland, it still leaves a very vocal Protestant minority who would be reluctant to show any loyalty to the Republic.
Released Government papers from the height of the Troubles in 1972 show Ted Heath's government saw one way of solving the problem as to remove hundreds of thousands of Catholics from Northern Ireland leaving a wholly Protestant sectarian state
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.scotsman.com/news/politics/plan-for-expulsion-of-catholics-from-ulster-1-634389/amp0 -
Northern Ireland would get a free trade zone with the backstop. It has its attractions. Ultimately Northern Ireland is probably better off integrated into the all Ireland economy than as a stranded outpost of the other Island, but there would be transition costs.ydoethur said:<
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
Total Irish revenues are €70 billion a year. It would require tax increases of 15% to fund the full UK fiscal transfer to Northern Ireland of £10 billion a year. The EU would probably contribute and it may not stay at the full amount. But reunification will come with a significant cash cost to the rest of Ireland. The question is whether they are willing to pay it.
0 -
You'd have found a lot of people on the march who agreed with you. The good news is that they seemed to me to be the sort of people who know how to get things done. And there were a lot of people making contacts and getting organised. I think we'll see Brexit opponents getting their act together.Roger said:Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.0 -
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?MaxPB said:Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
0 -
I'm not sure if this is meant to be funny or not, but people living on council estates in Grimsby weren't really feeling the benefits of membership of your wonderful club.Roger said:Could anyone watch the march yesterday without getting very angry indeed?
We are currently members of the best club in the world. A club which gives unfettered access to move live and work in any one of twenty seven different countries stretching from the arctic to the shores of Africa
I watched it from an ochre coloured Nice as the sun went down. A more beautiful city than I'm capable of describing and I wondered how we could have allowed ourselves to be taken in by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage who have nothing in common with any of us.0 -
Or a resignation from the Cabinet if as is likely May caves in and agrees the backstop for Northern Ireland (perhaps hedged by some condition as to when it can end so she can save face)MaxPB said:Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
0 -
I think they would, if the costs in question are as currently projected.FF43 said:
Northern Ireland would get a free trade zone with the backstop. It has its attractions. Ultimately Northern Ireland is probably better off integrated into the all Ireland economy than as a stranded outpost of the other Island, but there would be transition costs.ydoethur said:<
Of course, the EU could help enormously in this regard by allowing it barrier-free access to both the EU and the UK.
In short order, it would become the trading hub for the whole of Western Europe - a twenty first century answer to Berlin with better architecture.
But somehow I don't think that will happening.
Total Irish revenues are €70 billion a year. It would require tax increases of 15% to fund the full UK fiscal transfer to Northern Ireland of £10 billion a year. The EU would probably contribute and it may not stay at the full amount. But reunification will come with a significant cash cost to the rest of Ireland. The question is whether they are willing to pay it.
However, we are all rather assuming that there would be no extra security costs associated with a transfer of sovereignty. Most Republican terrorists seem to have reluctantly accepted the current setttlement - can we be sure the UFF would accept a change?0 -
-
Yes I think so. Though I think if someone like Raab were to put No Deal on the table it would focus minds in the Commission and all of this fannying about with the backstop would mostly go away.MarqueeMark said:
But would he be prepared to deliver the country a No Deal Brexit do you think - and live with the consequences?MaxPB said:Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
On the Ireland question, I think once we get to a referendum it will be a case of "vote unification and lose the NHS" and enough Catholics will vote to stay in the privacy of the polling booth. There's no way that Ireland can indefinitely subsidise the North so they have free healthcare and better welfare standards.0 -
From a Labour point of view, that's perfect.MaxPB said:Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
Raab just comes across as a vacuous charisma-less Tory dimwit. Theresa May is a colossus compared to a non-entity imbecile like Raab.0 -
Raab C Brexit.
0 -
It was a tongue in cheek comment and taken as one.MarqueeMark said:
What is it with the right-wing Brexiteers this morning? Go take a chill-pill...0 -
What a remarkably stupid pair of takes. You can completely disagree with the views of those marching yesterday while respecting their right to demonstrate. Claiming that they are either patronising or marginalising Leave supporters by doing so is coming perilously close to saying that they are not allowed to have a differing opinion.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Good point - I can imagine there being a very successful campaign to pump prime the new region of a united Ireland - the profound changes in the South should make it easier for many unionists toSouthamObserver said:
There would be huge investment from the US. Politically it would be impossible for a US president and Congress not to help ensure a united Ireland was a success, while countless individual wealthy Irish Americans would also get involved. Don’t forget - even Donald Trump attended Sinn Fein fundraisers back in the day.kingbongo said:what a great article - look forward to the other parts - I do wonder if the EU wouldn’t consider direct input if a border poll went the “right” way - like Kosovo just not so many soldiers just a kot of EU posters and new motorways - having been abandoned by the UK would loyalists really return to violence - for what? what the aim be? I think if chucked enough cash unionists could learn to love their new country quite quickly.
see the positives and I presume some level of devolution could be worked out0 -
Says a lot though that he would still be an improvement on vacuous Posho dimwit Corbyn...murali_s said:
From a Labour point of view, that's perfect.MaxPB said:Raab is looking more and more like a serious contender for the leadership.
Raab just comes across as a vacuous charisma-less Tory dimwit. Theresa May is a colossus compared to a non-entity imbecile like Raab.
That's quite clever. Another string to your vest!Jonathan said:Raab C Brexit.
I have a massive organ to inflate and play with. I intend to use both hands and my feet, possibly all at once, especially when manipulating my eight foot horn on the full swell.
Have a good morning.0
