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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 12.5 per
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 12.5 percent swing from the SNP
Given that we are now only eight months away from the referendum in Scotland that will determine whether it stays in the UK or not the outcome of every election north of the border is being assessed in terms of what it says about September.
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The media link equating Yes as the SNP needs to be addressed, with other people involved, and conversely the link between NO and Tories needs to be exponentially increased for YES to win.
Having Tories fly in and fly out because Cameron knows a debate would cost many votes is a weakness and the MSM will eventually see it as such.
Either it is multi party on each side or presidential, one cannot be half pregnant.
That a third of the votes were postal in Cowdenbeath after the Glenrothes debacle next door is a concern. My guess is that there will be an attempt to get postals up to 30% plus from the NO campaign, as their support is soft and they need people to get help to vote NO.
I think postals should have been banned unless a valid excuse as plenty of room for skullduggery, or at least should be counted separately as some of us suspect that something Glenrothes-like may be attempted to keep the status quo.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25869001
Has anyone seen the numbers?
The Tories need to be careful here: telling people they are better off when they don't feel they are may end up doing them more harm than good.
A move comparable to the other recent by-elections swings.Yet what is crucially left out (for reasons best known to those who seem to have massive trouble whenever they blunder into this subject) was the SNP result last night saw them getting the same voteshare as 2007.
That would be the 2007 where the SNP won the Holyrood elections.
So to be clear, this supposed disaster for the SNP and Salmond is predicated on one MIDTERM by-election result in one of the SAFEST of Labour safe seats where the SNP voteshare would see the SNP WIN the coming Holyrood election and forming the next scottish government.
A disaster indeed.
*tears of laughter etc.*
Labour: very solid win, better than par score. Back above 50% (indeed, above 55%) and almost as many votes as in 2011. Will be very content that progress towards 2016 is on the right track.
SNP: disappointing. A loss of half the vote and almost a third of the vote share on 2011, and a double-digit swing against. Not the ideal position going into the referendum.
Con: pretty good. The only party to actually increase their vote on 2011, and while 9.4% is no great shakes, it's around par for the course in that area. Will be pleased that UKIP doesn't seem to have done much damage.
UKIP: reasonable. 3% is about in line with polls for a party whose progress in Scotland is about ten years behind its position south of the border. Fourth place will be pleasing for them.
Lib Dems: poor. Half their already small 2011 share and fifth place. Further evidence that outside their strongholds, they're an irrelevance in Scotland.
Others: publicity aside, why bother?
I expect the messaging is intended to show the Conservatives as not a party just for the rich, rather than to persuade people that they've misunderstood their own finances.
But as you say, they need to be careful. People have a firm idea of how much money they have in their pocket.
I think you had better sit down asap, all that spin will make you dizzy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2544566/Business-fears-economic-vandalism-Labours-plans-Ed-Miliband-Prime-Minister.html
I'm not sure that all those quoted would have expected exactly the interpretation put on their words by the Mail.
The Cowdenbeath Holyrood result overnight represented a sharp move away from the SNP in a seat that they had only just missed in May 2011."
A move comparable to the other recent by-elections swings. Yet what is crucially left out (for reasons best known to those who seem to have massive trouble whenever they blunder into this subject) was the SNP result last night saw them getting the same vote share as 2007.
That would be the 2007 where the SNP won the Holyrood elections.
True, but.
While the SNP vote share yesterday was the same as in the predecessor seat in 2007, Labour's was 11% up on that result. And while the SNP did win overall in 2007, it was only by one seat over Labour. So yes, not a disaster by any means but the evidence that Labour's getting its act back together shouldn't be ignored either.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/24/argentinian-peso-freefall-economic-crisis-deepens
The most recent Holyrood polling also shows a repeat of 2007 with the SNP winning and forming the government so this is hardly anything new. For a government in midterm however it is very revealing and about as far from a disaster as it gets. If the tories were getting polling and results comparable to what they got in 2010 you can be absolutely certain they would be losing no time at all in boasting about it.
Secondly, David, that is an argument against redistributive taxation of any kind. May I take it that you were sorry to see John Major replace the Poll Tax with the Community Charge? Or at least sorry that he needed to?
Can posters please not copy entire articles or a majority of that article from other sites.
Past performance is NO guarantee of future success. You are spinning like a top.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/23/tory-rebel-immigration-bill-amendment-romanian-bulgarian-migrants
As you can see for yourself what was posted was five paragraphs of the article which give enough to summarise what is obviously a complex vote, procedure and who is moving it as well as why.
Nobody needed to explain to 'Loadsamoney' that he was better off during the 1980s - he already knew it and could show you the money to prove it.
AIUI most of the reductions in WTC to date have been at the upper end with eligibility removed for those earning more than twice the average wage (!) and sharper tapering as a result. Of greater significance for the less well paid will be the new policies on HB which may, in some cases, mean that the working tenant has to find more of his or her rent from his or her earnings.
It is a complicated picture and I suspect that the tories will be content for the situation to be simply confused at the moment provided that real wages grow this year. For that to be achievable productivity needs to be increased. So far the evidence on that is weak. A possible game changer, though, is an increase in the minimum wage significantly above inflation. That would give real earnings quite a boost.
I kid you not. Who says UKIP doesn't have a full manifesto that addresses the real needs of the country?
http://order-order.com/2014/01/23/watch-farage-gets-brillod/
But it's true: you're projecting thoughts onto the Conservatives. You *want* them to think of such people as 'scroungers' and 'layabouts'. Some will, but so will some Labour supporters and, I daresay, even some Labour MPs.
And oh dear, I meant nerds not needs!! Blasted autocorrect!
Given how manipulated they are I rather expected Police crime figures to edge up if only to demonstrate what a devastating effect cuts on police were having. It appears the individual pressure on performance in each area creates too great a momentum.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowdenbeath_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
Change of vote compared to 2007 seat on new boundaries:
Lab +12.8%
SNP -0.1%
Con -4.8%
LD -12.1%
UKIP + 3.0%
Collapse of LD vote goes entirely to Labour.
In 2007 the SNP had just 1 more seat than Lab in the Scottish parliament. So "tears of laughter" indeed if you think that a result where Lab improves 13% on its vote share then could see the SNP forming the next Scottish government.
Past performance is NO guarantee of future success. You are spinning like a top.
The by-election result was last night you amusingly confused chap. While the Holyrood polling also pointing to an SNP win for 2007 is very recent too. Stick to spinning for Cast Iron Cammie as he heads for a no doubt 'stellar' performance at the coming May elections. Or better still you can cheer yourself up with Osbrowne trumpeting record unemployment figures that he proudly boasts were as good a drop as they were in Feb 1997. Under John Major. That would be the same John Major, who, three months after those unemployment figures, then went on to the most resounding and devastating tory defeat in modern political times.
Funny how examining past performance is forbidden unless it's to spin positively for the tories on PB.
It is hard to see a swing to the LDs in Scotland, so it may well be that it is Labour and Conservatives that gain seats at Westminster, though even a handful would be a triumph for the Tories.
I am sure that our porcine friends will cry tears of laughter as they tuck into their acorns!
If I was made overlord, everything should be in Midland Railway crimson lake, just like 48624:
http://www.gcrailway.co.uk/the-railway/locomotives/8624-2/
http://www.srpsmuseum.org.uk/LMidComp.htm
GWR green will be banned as an abomination, and Swindon will be concreted over to remove all traces of the broad-gauge heretics. ;-)
He was up agains Tony. Ed is not in the same league!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_950
Quite obviously not but those improving economy stats did sweet F A for John Major for the same reason they will not help Osbrowne. The voter doesn't care about out of touch idiots spinning economic stats. The voter knows perfectly well if they are better off or not. The voter also knows full well that labour smashed the economy along with the banks since they watched it happen and no amount of economic stats will change that fact either.
So it's not hard to see how the election will look in 2015.
"Cost of living crisis" Vs "Don't let Labour ruin it again".
Something those with any common sense have known long, long before now. That's a battle that can only be won (or more likely lost) on trust. Like so many other elections have been.
As for their future prospects, well the scottish tories have done one telling thing since the coalition formed which is to get unpopular and incompetent lib dems like Rennie, Moore and now Carmichael to be the very public face of the coalition in scotland for as many news and media reports as possible. Usually under the pretext that they would be better suited to handle such things. Though mainly because those lib dems just aren't bright enough to see they are being made the fall guys as they love being on TV.
You saw a very rare exception to that with SCON's Davidson on QT last night. The coalition didn't go down too well, did it? The political motivation for the scottish tories to keep the lib dems as their fall guys (while they try to be as invisible as possible) is quite clear. It is also completely unsustainable for any large scale election and test of scottish public opinion. Then you are going to see what happens when the scottish tories have to very publicly defend the coalition to the scottish public and it will not be pretty.
Hard to imagine another party securing over 50% in a by-election right now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/10592623/Davos-2014-Theres-only-one-way-to-close-the-wealth-gap.html
Basically saying the world faces choices now as globalisation and low interest rate regimes reach the end of their road. The Labour economic direction will ruin the country. We need to move away from crony capitalism to real capitalism and free markets, away from protectionism to compettiion, etc.
Last night caught a little of a cat fight between Fitalass and Mr Pork. Fitalass was almost supporting SLAB !
What went wrong for the SNP? Is it a case of mid term dissatisfaction in the Edinburgh talking shop, or is it an area where votes go to any resembling a highland cow with a red rosette?
Was greatly displeased with the final instalment of the three-part series on Egyptian art on BBC4 last night. The chap presenting it kept referring to Alexander and Ptolemy as Greek.
The point is I don't even need to rely on one by-election result in the safest of safe labour seats to tell me that the SNP look set to form a government right now. The most recent Holyrood polling also points to it.
Tears of laughter indeed if you think that midterm poll points to a labour win at Holyrood.
I have never met anyone join the Conservatives in order to bully someone else. Considering that most parties have quite a lot of members with strong personalities, it's entirely possible that some Tories may act in a bullying manner but then Falkirk and Portsmouth suggest that other parties have problems with abuse of power too.
The point about welfare reform is even stranger. it's not an argment against redistributive taxation at all. On the contrary. It's about *not* giving away money to people who *don't* need it (while ensuring that those who do, continue to receive while also incentivising actions that will ultimately help them to support themselves).
I do think that Rennard methods have passed their sell-by date.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25870646
A rise is good, but I'm not sure if that's sufficient.
You seem to be a very happy man - or easily amused. Does everything everyone else says really generate 'tears of laughter'? And is everything anyone you don't like does 'comically inept'? Or are you actually a robot surreptitiously exposing the rest of us to some kind of Turing test?
I think Japan has an equivalent tellow train for their high speed network.
At the same lib dem who bizarrely thought that the SNP winning the scottish local elections in 2012 was somehow a terrible blow to the SNP? Hardly.
*chortle*
Personally, to reduce costs further, I think normal road tyres should be used. They should also have to drive to the nearest Kwik Fit to have a change, queuing behind a few Ladas and Honda Jazz's as a cigarette-wielding mechanic sucks through his teeth and orders the tyres in from the depot.
Oh, and Sam Michael might become McLaren team boss. Boo hiss.
On the third hand, it may amplify the Curse of Michael and lead to McLaren scoring no points at all and being taken over by a returning Super Aguri consortium.
Care to tell me what the tories have to cheer about with this?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
If you don't know what the purple kipper line means for Cammie by now then you have no chance of understanding the EU elections or the tory panic that will precede and follow it.
http://video.uk.msn.com/watch/video/salmond-predicts-swing-from-labour/2ick8nye
"Voters will swing away from Labour in the Cowdenbeath by-election, according to Alex Salmond."
It's those terribly biased people at PA, no doubt.
Or should it be something nobler, more visceral than that?
http://www.planetf1.com/driver/18227/9130566/Sam-Michael-to-be-named-team-boss-
There's some interesting things afoot at McLaren. Personally I doubt the story: ISTR that Michael was a Whitmarsh appointment, and Dennis could well want to get rid of as many of those as possible.
Then again, they can't leave themselves understaffed.
Or alternatively, the SNP are shit at expectations management. Suck it up.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/salmond-targets-27-westminster-seats-1026507
And BTW there is no such thing as an English pound, unless you are assuming that yes won the referendum?!
This was an extremely low profile midterm by-election in one of the safest labour seats there is. It takes the state of constituency basically back to how it was in 2007 when SNP went into government. Shrieking about expectations management hilariously misses the point considering just how ineptly such things get reported here on PB. So no, you can suck it up thanks.
The fact of the matter is we all know how loudly the PB tories would be cheering if they got a by-election result or polling that pointed to them getting a vote like 2010. No doubt any PB lib dems would be fit to be hospitalised if any polling or by-election result pointed to them getting the same kind of result as 2010. Somewhat unlikely while the Clegg spin machine is about as shit as it gets while providing everyone else with so much entertainment and amusement.
Had forgotten at the time, that 'Heil dir im Siegerkranz' was an Imperial German and Prussian Kingdom anthem played when The Kaiser and King of Germany attended events. Was played again after August 4th 1914?
How many of the 75 do you expect the Cameroons to target? Less than the 20 he needs to win? I somehow doubt it.