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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanagh nomination will go through

After being briefed by the FBI today and having the opportunity to read the report myself, I am now even more confident in Judge #Kavanaugh’s nomination and fitness for the court. (1/2)
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Probably a boon, in other times - they do seem to have rules for almost everything it seems.
Pause.
Smartarse patients
We are about 5 months out from leaving
There is no time and it isn't going to happen
As such a vote to Remain is impossible.
The only viable means would be via A50 extension, as proposed by Boris. I am sure the EU would not object.
And on that I agree with your super intelligent friend. Leave would win by a handy margin. The public do not like sore losers and I can't see anyway that a second referendum escapes being framed in that way. Many Remainers will unwittingly aid that framing by being unable [still!] to avoid moaning about the bus of lies.
Oh well.
The bigger question is whether the government could ever be persuaded to want one. Time is not really the question.
I don't think the result can be predicted in advance, as the voters can be keen to kick the party in power, as they so often do in Referendums, and the party in power is the vote to Leave. The anti-establishment vote comes to Remain.
Such a referendum would also take place in the context of complete collapse of government, so in a very volatile time. Anything could happen.
Not likely to involve much as regulatory alignment would continue, by inertia if no other reason. The DUP would be annoyed, but outvoted by Labour moderates.
Doesn't half make you wonder about all your Chinese-made products.
More-than-doubly so if you are a government or large corporation, I suspect.
As I say I would love to tap the expertise available on this.
Short of the DUP willing to put Labour into power, option 2 is a no go. The tories aren't going to risk an election when they have a workable majority.
Absent a deal, what would a another vote ask ? Leave versus Remain has been done.
Option 1 just happens without intervention by process of law and time.
If the report is true, Apple acted like total twats and caused a delay in this getting exposed.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1047946190225113089
It won’t happen overnight, but the big tech companies will look for alternative sourcing for their products.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/weve-always-been-heading-for-a-blind-brexit_uk_5b72db46e4b0bdd0620cebd3?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_cs=6vqiyArIrNlNFUpmVHP3cg
The simple truth is that there is no time for a detailed FTA before Brexit, so any "Deal" would inevitably be WA plus vague promise, to be negotiated later. That vague promise would need another Treaty post Brexit.
Blind Brexit is a useful shorthand for this scenario.
I'll get my coat.
I think he will have his place in history by then.
Have a pleasant nights rest everyone
Good night folks
Policy wise he seems very sensible, trying to reform labour laws etc, but he really does seem to have a way of acting superior. A key thing that Blair tried not to do.
So May now faces three groups of opponents, all of whom think rejection of her deal will play into their hands. The Labour leadership thinks it will lead to a general election, Labour remainers and the people's vote campaigners think it will lead to a second referendum and the ERG think it will lead to a no deal Brexit. So none of these groups will support May and thus she will be unable to get what will inevitably be a pretty crap deal through parliament.
The small chip only has connect to an external computer and download a larger piece of software into memory. Computer firewalls often do not block outgoing traffic, particularly if that traffic originates from a process identifying itself as a security admin.
The larger piece of software can then be loaded into memory and tagged as a top-level process and then run unimpeded.
Helpfully,
Basic relativity
WTF am I watching QT
And now I'm not
Is it still followed by the Diane and Michael show?
BBCQT pretty lame again tonight.
It makes a refreshing change...
Of all the things that would help me travel at 1/3 of the speed of light, carrying a damn ladder? How impractical!
Domesticity rules
Even harder than Brexit.
250 Tory mps at most. Lib Dems will probably back it.
There the ERG Götterdämmerung squad or perhaps 45 - 50 MPs who will vote against anything short of the Treaty of Troyes.
Where do the other 75 votes comes from ?
30 or 40 labour MPs maybe ? Corbyn will surely prefer to collapse the government. Burn the house down and take over in the ashes.
It may all come down to the 35 SNP members, would they really vote for a "tory brexit" ? The best chance of another Indy Ref is no deal, they just need to have clean hands.
Tricky.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/2018/10/04/if-kavanaugh-is-confirmed-impeachment-could-follow-heres-how/?__twitter_impression=true
I wonder if they will do the same with their Premier League football rights?
If I was Sky, I would be crapping it. I think Rupert Murdoch might be secretly be very happy to be exiting just before Amazon steamroller gets moving.