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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since

The end of the Party Conference season is a good time to look back at the past year through the prism of the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. This is part of the longest running polling series in the UK and is now in its fifth decade.
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One of his MPs wrote this magnum opus.
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase#amp
I’m sure all respondents decided to Lay All Your Love On May.
Diesel resale prices are a fraction of what they should have been without the scandal.
Electric is coming along so fast that petrol and diesel are going to be worth even less.
Electric is coming along so fast that new electrics are better and cheaper every year so the resale on what you buy now is worth less.
Unless you need to buy a new car then buying one now is pointless.
I have an 8 year old car now that came with a 7 year warranty. It runs as well now as it did then and sailed through its last MOT. I'm holding off until either I'm forced to replace it or an electric vehicle matures enough to be both cheap and with a decent range.
The statement is still true, just a it was then. The issue is no more than your narrow definition of shortly. In evolutionary terms it will be a mere blink.
It may be more accurate than JC getting to No 10 by (an undefined) christmas.
It runs reliably, is cheap to insure and keeps the rain off. That is all I need.
She make whatever warnings she wants. She has no credibility. She promised that Chequers was as far as she would go and asked everyone to make compromises on the grounds that would be it. It was a lie. She is now running off offering yet more compromises to the EU. In the meantime, they are just going to publish their paper on the future relationship without actually negotiating it with the UK. It will be take it or leave it.
The problem is that May has backed down on every threat she ever faced, from anyone. EU, Remainers, Leavers, DUP, she backs down to them all. So Leavers are hardly quaking in their boots right now. She doesn't have the numbers for Chequers-minus but she is stubborn so she might have to find that out the hard way. The very idea that she would hand the EU a permanent veto on the UK leaving the CU is an absolute disgrace and her support will evaporate as soon as this becomes clear.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6225039/Nissan-Leafs-range-just-160-miles-good-luck-finding-charging-point-works.html
I'm sticking with my British-made Toyota self-charging hybrid
As cars become increasingly gadget filled, move towards self-driving, and become electric powered or hybrids, we are starting to see a pace of development unseen for many decades, and as consequence a more rapid depreciation. If your current car runs well then keep it, the car you will be able to buy in 2020+ will knock spots off the car you could buy today.
At the moment using my other half's 03 reg Nissan, which is going well still.
She is trying to face in two diametrically opposed positions at the same time.
It is hard to see how this can end well.
A major problem with electric cars is that, in two important ways, they're a *worse* technology: they have less range than IC cars, and 'refuelling' them takes many times longer. These are two factors that matter to many drivers.
Technology is here to (apparently) make our lives easier; or at least make us think our lives are easier. Current electric cars do not make lives easier; as a one-to-one replacement they make lives more complex. That will be a big barrier to mass-market uptake, and that's without mentioning their cost.
I agree with you on electric cars. It's all very well saying how green it is, but if you can't get where you want to go, or if it adds considerably to journey time, it's an inferior form of transport.
Edited extra bit: and, of course, concrete was used to construct the Colosseum in the 1st century AD, but after the Empire fell the secret to the substance was lost for centuries.
If May (as it appears she is doing) agrees a permanent backstop that cannot ended without the consent of the EU, she will trigger a leadership challenge and will lose. The idea that you can commit the UK to the control of a foreign power with no way out is unthinkable. She will play right into the ERGs hands - this is an easy thing to explain to the public and she will have no support when it is realised what she has done.
It may be a small difference, but it is crucial.
Anyway, with that thought, I shall leave you all to it as people are demanding I do stuff...
Higher tax on road fuel would make electric cars better in comparison, as cheaper than internal combustion. Greater sales would enclave a more rapid pace of development to improve the technology, because you would have proof that the market was there.
As Ford (didn't) say "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses"
I go everywhere by bike as my three cars (E36 M3 Touring and 2 x 911) are more or less permanently in bits.
Don’t change it though, it may completely undermine the point you are making, and give hope to the Corbynistas!
Disappointing though not, perhaps, entirely unexpected.
1) Theresa May is replaced by a Conservative before the next election.
2) Jeremy Corbyn is replaced before the next election.
3) Jeremy Corbyn loses the next election and is either replaced or Theresa May is subsequently replaced by a Conservative.
Place your own odds on each of these but for myself I make the respective odds of these roughly 75%, 30% and (if it gets that far) 50%. Allowing for the fact that 1 and 2 can both happen, I make it roughly a one in 11 chance that Jeremy Corbyn gets the gig.
Feel free to disagree with these percentage estimates and make your own calculations, but (subject to questions of the time value of money) a lay seems marked to me.
I think you need to get better cars. Might I suggest a Honda Jazz? As reliable as f***k.
Even if we generated all our electricity with fossil fuels you could still make a case for electric cars on the basis that the pollution from cars is often released directly into city centres. I'm not sure if power stations are more efficient than internal combustion engines once you factor in transmission losses, but that is also a possibility.
All remainers need to respect that statement is true. Leavers are spot on with that claim. Apart from the bit where it’s a joint effort and we do have some input.
What leavers haven't made clear though, where Britain has jointly negotiated and agreed trade deals with EU partners, what exactly is so badly wrong with those trade deals we have ended up with? Jointly negotiating we have ended up in trade deals, leavers determined to rip them all up, what specifically is wrong with them? Where exactly are current trade deals holding us back from even better ones? Is it just the principle is wrong, not necessarily all the resulting deals we currently enjoy?
When it comes to the second ref, there will be much more spotlight on leave to answer this.
As I wondered around Nice airport yesterday there was a flight from Rome and another from Liverpool. The difference in size would have to be measured in percentages of tons. I fear that in three or four years time when we assume full European Pariah status they will put a surcharge on us for weight followed by a further one for lack of dress sense
May deserves no sympathy - her premiership has been one of the biggest clusterf*cks in British history.
I do understand your desire to break free completely but it is not going to happen.
I have no idea where this debacle ends but I do know TM will protect the integrity of the Union and just in time manufacturing and if ERG take her deal down do not be surprised if the end result is we do not leave at all
The Audi I had before the bonfire ran over 140k miles and, if anything, the engine was running better than when I bought it. Everything else was wearing out though and it just wasn't sensible to spend so much money on an old car with minimal resale value.
There will no doubt be some proper road warriors on here but I average about 25k miles a year which is a lot of time to spend in a car. For me it just doesn't have to be reliable, it has to be safe in the event that I am involved in an accident, comfortable (especially for my lower back which gives me gip from time to time), have a decent sound system and access to the radio stations I like. One demerit of the Jag is that the radio doesn't do longwave. The cricket is now on R5Live extra but I miss out on Yesterday in Parliament in the morning which I used to enjoy.
I broadly agree with those who say that new cars are simply too good to replace after 3 years. They still feel new at that stage.
Labour have become a party of constant moaning, running the country down, suggesting everyone is on zero hours contracts and we are all eating in food banks, and so it goes on
The leaders are the misery party and are not fit to govern
In any event it is just an unacceptable thing to do.
It is so much more complicated today than ever before. I heard someone on the radio say they ran over their charging lead and it cost £800 for a new one. I have no idea how true that is but it is a lot of money just to be able to charge your car
After Theresa May's betryal of the Leave voters she conned into voting for her in 2017 all I can say the sooner the better!
#ToriesOut
The joys of working in Leeds, living near Richmond, having a girlfriend who couldn’t drive living in Wirral, and parents in Sheffield.
Cash still available at 9.6, 9.8, 10.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125589838?loginStatus=SUCCESS&ott=yg2H/NJDHn+3MRSysSYaA3wxoVOYmbZ385quwRGZVT62D6ggn6zb7YaCuT+7AqDT
The attack is believed is to have been conducted by Russian military intelligence, the GRU, which has also been blamed by the British government for the attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury in March.
A Dutch official said four intelligence officials had been expelled from the Netherlands after being caught spying on the chemical weapons body in April.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/04/netherlands-halted-russian-cyber-attack-on-chemical-weapons-body?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
But I trust you agree that when you are spending that % of your life behind the wheel there is more to a car than being reliable and keeping the rain off.
I can see a huge round tent packed full of displays nobodys really interested in
The site should be somewhere on the west side of Sheffield on the main road to Manchester so that all the construction traffic goes on for years.
Doing most of those miles in a Porsche Cayenne Turbo made it bearable.
Percentage of obese over-15 year olds:
Italy 9.8%, UK 26.9%
Admittedly 2015 figures, but I don't think the Italians will have caught up in three years!
https://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf
Someone said yesterday that I would be on here within 2 minutes of TM starting her speech saying how it was her best ever.
I didn't as it so happens as many others did. Indeed the media this morning seem to say it was her best ever speech and has reinvigorated the party.
I am more than pleased for TM who has confounded all critics by not only delivering a successful address to conference, but that not one of the stunts including booing and slow clapping happened
This morning she is as strong as she has been but she has mountains of challenges facing her and we await to see how she resolves them
Which is why we should start asteroid mining!
And in other news, another rover has landed on Riyugu. Well done Jaxa!
TM stood on the centre ground yesterday and that is where GE are won
One quickly realises why the train is so popular in exurbs of London !
so I propose putting David Cameron on ducking stool. remainers would pay to vent their spleen on the man who called the referendum and leavers would pay to see him in a vat of ice water as they are loonies and fruitcakes.
Dave could then justify becoming Sir Dave as he has united the nation after a difficut time.
It also seems to me that this difference in attitude to weight is a major cause in the discrepancy in life expectancy between the classes (along with a much smaller propensity to smoke). There are consequences for this behaviour.
I don't like nanny states. The Scottish government's latest wheeze, after blocking discounts for larger purchases of alcohol and minimum pricing, is apparently to ban your free prawn crackers with your Chinese carryout and ban discounting for upsizing meals. I am instinctively against this sort of nonsense and yet, as with minimum pricing, I have to acknowledge that we have a serious problem.
Sugar taxes are a good start too.
Ethnicity and childhood obesity figures - your best chance of being a skinny kid is to be white-asian mix
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/health/preventing-illness/overweight-children/latest
The majority of people have been using personal contract purchase, leasing the car for three years rather than buying the car outright. This results in lower monthly costs but you don't own the car at the end of the agreement unless you purchase it at the end of the three years.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/let-sunshine-win-the-day-says-cameron-the-optimist-008szp2qk6f
It's a bit like trying to understand rates of mental illness. Lots go undiagnosed, so there's a large dose of guesswork. And some things might or might not be considered that way. Is someone who gambles every day, and wins, and make a living at it, an addict who needs help? Is a man who eats a lot and purges by 'excessive exercise' a bulimic?
Obviously we have to do our best, but it's tricky.
Can't imagine the headlines if this was Labour.
Also really don't understand the far right hang up regarding communism/marxism still, its useful because it makes a mockery of the far right support Corbyn smear that has come up now and again but on a practical level surely the modern day far right would be better off tactically concentrating their fire elsewhere, I don't think we will fight the commies is the rallying call it was in 30's Germany as the threat really isn't there like it was.
My first car was a 1938 Rover and my second car was a 1934 Rover. Well done Rover in 2018.