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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets has hardly moved
Given the enormity of what’s happened at the EU Salzburg summit I though it useful to look at reaction across a range of market on the Betfair exchange:
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I have small amounts on May to leave in 2018 and Labour most seats in a GE.
Rejoice.
Pile on Corbyn as PM (within reason, he is still very unappealing to many)
Today has been a deeply depressing day where a group of men in the main set out to humiliate the elected female Prime Minister of a Country that has democratically voted to leave and a Prime Minister who up until now has been warm and generous in seeking a deep friendship in the future.
They are an absolute disgrace and they have lost me today. I gave the EU the benefit of believing they would negotiate in good faith and that has been trashed.
To Aussie Archer I apologise if at times I came over as over protective of our jobs and backed TM deal or a second referendum. The EU has convinced me I want out unless they give a deal to TM and I do not want a second referendum
That is the problem, it takes two to tango and May has bent over backwards to be accomodating. The EU just wants the UK to be supplicants and take whatever gruel they deem fit to give us - that isn't a negotiation and it isn't a deal.
After a full minute of utter guff.
Remain have learned nothing, have they?
This is what Brexit is all about. Destructive on all sides. Welcome to your fellow countrymen.
Have we been too soft on the EUs PeoplesVote quislings?
No deal it is. I don’t care about the “consequence” or if it leads to Corbyn or eventually to us rejoining, that will at least be our choice.
No-one deserves that sort of treatment and public humiliation.
If and when that approach does not fly with the Commons/public, we can all move on to contemplating other options.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1042801501029261313
Currently we've been saying "please sir, we need a deal sir, what will you give us sir" so there's been no need for them to do so.
So is Boris a Quisling?
My ill will is solely aimed at the Leave campaigners who said this would be easy and there'd be no disruption replete with only sunlit uplands.
They'll be spoken in the same breath as the appeasers of the 1930s.
But of course it is only ever the UK that doesn't understand something, never the EU. And its totally unfair of us to ask for things, in a negotiation, but totally ok for them to ask for things.
It’s not easy all this, it’s all shades of grey. We all potentially have things to lose. But my belief is based on maintaining our freedom, and the ability to clearly fire those who rule us. Without that we are all doomed whatever.
Hopefully some deal will emerge, but if they really are playing this way in the EU. and it’s not some negotiating charade, well I’d walk. It won’t be easy for a bit if they wish to act the way they are, but I value my ability to sack my rulers too much.
Ted Heath famously asked the question "Who governs Britain?", and got the answer "not you!"
And I did say men in the main
And as for Tusk offering her a cake tray with no cherries was just childish and unworthy of his Office. I know who the grown up and it is not Tusk, Junckers or the EU
Europe are not negotiating in good faith. No deal it is, then...
A PM at the top of her game would have had her Foreign Secretary there with her.
Was Raab there today?
If the proposal violates a fundamental principle for the EU then her lack of people skills was irrelevant to the proposals being rejected, and at most affected the tone of the dismissal of her proposal surely? And that being the case a harsher dismissal is even better than a teasing fudge, since it means future attempts to kick the can are limited since there is the thinnest of hopes this type of deal can be made, and so we can think about others now.
"For me the next decision was one of the most shameful that the NEC has made."
"the Momentum members, with 60% of the vote, now control 100% of the seats, and the message to the other 40% is that they do not deserve a voice"
"our inboxes are clogged with a tiny percentage of the half-million members, egged on by Momentum... a significant number of members hate Labour MPs, individually and collectively, especially for trying to get rid of Jeremy in 2016, and would be happy to purge the lot of them"
"This is not the kinder, gentler politics which Jeremy promised in 2015. The next report, after conference, will be my last as a member of the NEC, and it is now for others to find a way back from the edge."
It seems inevitable now that there will either be customs border down the Irish Sea, or between Ulster and the Republic, so why not put it to a vote?
Thatcher was a visionary when she created the Single Market.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1042876716035854336
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/967405700753305605
But she has failed, and her staying on is not helping any more, even if, ugh, it means Boris gets a chance to attempt something.
I simply do not understand how anyone thought that Chequers would be acceptable. You have to assume that the EU negotiators are lying about the four freedoms, and there is no evidence to think that they are.
I think the EU similarly seems to fail to understand the governments position on Northern Ireland. May is not kidding on that one either.
Lord knows where we are now.
Hunt is Foreign Sec.
Now don’t get me wrong a good deal is preferred option, and I still think something will emerge.
However, I’d walk rather than totally kowtow.
Today hasn’t been great all round. Two sides woefully sailing past each other in thought and deed. But there again it’s been like that one way or another since 1973, which is why we are where we are.
Indeed, his being in the Far East is an interesting Macavity act, for a man on manouveres.
I don't know where Raab was today.
I'd probably vote remain in a second referendum as I lack the spine and stomach for a continued fight, but trying to be objective about things (I said 'try', not always successively) if one approach has failed its surely better to acknowledge it and try something else at least, and the EU at least closed a door firmly today rather than being too mealy mouthed about it.
I think there would be a strong majority in NI for staying in both of these arrangements, while also remaining part of the United Kingdom. In effect the EU backstop really does allow Ulster to 'have it's cake and eat it', just not the rest of the UK. If this passes by a referendum, the decision carries democratic weight.