politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Demographics, First They Lift You Up…
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Demographics, First They Lift You Up…
Economically speaking, the last two centuries have been pretty good for much of Europe, North America and Asia. People live longer, are healthier, and are richer than ever before.
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https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/1040214381538287616
Does this man ever know when to shut up? He isn't even a useful idiot. He certainly isn't useful....
https://unherd.com/2018/09/insincere-politicians-cheapening-public-discourse/
How many times can PB Tories fall for such BS.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/articles/howhaslifeexpectancychangedovertime/2015-09-09
So I'm not yet convinced by the idea that it wasn't worth investing the time in education at that stage.
Perhaps it's about Dick Chaney
1600 - 35 workers : 65 nonworkers (29 childcare, 29 children, 7 old)
1950 - 45 workers : 55 nonworkers (18 childcare, 23 children, 14 old)
2000 - 51 workers : 49 nonworkers (11 childcare, 19 children, 19 old)
In the event of a no deal Brexit, car manufacturers would need to get EU certificates showing that they comply with EU safety and environmental standards, one of the papers says. And EU manufacturers wanting to sell cars in the UK would need the equivalent UK documentation.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/13/brexit-no-deal-planning-papes-dominic-raab-takes-swipe-at-john-lewis-saying-firms-should-not-blame-brexit-for-their-own-failings-politics-live?page=with:block-5b9a58a2e4b0543ecbf2c20e#block-5b9a58a2e4b0543ecbf2c20e
Shout out to all the Brexiteers wishing they had been published before the vote...
Meant to watch the video this morning, but was distracted elsewhere.
A little more detail on earlier demographics (although most of your comparisons are too recent for me to comment much): most of that was infant mortality being atrocious, especially in the first year.
If you reached 10, you had a pretty good chance of a life above average life expectancy. And if you reached adulthood, it could be much longer. It's worth noting that three kings (admittedly, the first wasn't exactly king of warriors) in the Middle Ages lived very long lives, certainly for the time (Henry III, Edward I, Edward III). From around 1216 to 1377, 161 years, England had just four kings. The fourth was Edward II, whose life expectancy was cut short by human factors (although some believe he lived in obscurity, having escaped Mortimer's prison).
Edited to correct a date. Ironically, I thought it was 1216, checked Wikipedia, saw 1207 for Henry III's starting date (it was his birth year) and 'corrected' my right answer with a wrong one...
A similar point applies when there’s analysis of meat-eating as an indicator of poverty in 19th and early 20th century Britain. When people recording as eating meat once a week that’s pretty solid evidence. Unless you know that for many, meat = only beef.
Mind you, you might find that judges tend to prefer evidence rather than prejudice. But then you must have that evidence, mustn't you, to make such a clear statement about "culpability"?
Bias must be one of the biggest causes of mental inflexibility and selective hearing. There must be a drug to reduce propensity to bias and thus increase harmony in the world.
This could be the death of the cross-channel ferry. Brexit will create a tanker of red tape. Gone are the days when Brexiteers could accuse the EU of creating cumbersome bureaucracy – that ship has sailed.
It is worth noting that the cross-channel ferry industry did manage to survive for many years before the UK entered the EU. Forecasting its “death” may be pushing it a bit ...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/13/brexit-no-deal-planning-papes-dominic-raab-takes-swipe-at-john-lewis-saying-firms-should-not-blame-brexit-for-their-own-failings-politics-live?page=with:block-5b9a7333e4b0761badf421b5#block-5b9a7333e4b0761badf421b5
Shipping
Companies holding these exemptions should prepare for a scenario after exit in which submission of security pre-arrival information (as set out in Article 6) would be required before their vessels were permitted to enter the port(s) of an EU country. This requirement would come into effect as soon as the UK leaves the EU.
Shipping companies should engage with EU countries to ensure they are prepared for a ‘no deal scenario’ and understand what information they would be required to provide and how it would be submitted.
The UK government intends to continue issuing exemptions for scheduled services from an EU country to a port in the UK, or between ports in the UK, after EU withdrawal, regardless of the outcome of negotiations.
This is subject to a set of conditions which would be similar to those currently placed upon existing exemption holders.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/getting-an-exemption-from-maritime-security-notifications-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/getting-an-exemption-from-maritime-security-notifications-if-theres-no-brexit-deal
I think these notices may also start panicking EU member states....
https://twitter.com/asymco/status/1040240778860146688
From Russia with Nov
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1039953072120885252
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/satellites-and-space-programmes-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/satellites-and-space-programmes-if-theres-no-brexit-deal
Will the ESA still want to host ground infrastructure in non-EU territory? Falklands and Ascension?
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1040236954145771520
Carry on Camping
Carry on Cruising
Can't argue with that.
Network Rail will be able to sell off more under the arch sites to Blackstone.
We should introduce the stuff to all the “dry” states immediately!
Also, saying something is rubbish/stupid doesn't actually prove or provide evidence for that being the case. It also disregards that science is meant to have varying opinions, and for theories to be put to the test by seeing how well they tally with available information, and being modified as errors are identified, and abandoned if a better model comes along.
The weird fetish for 'settled science', as if it's a democratic process or as if a majority of scientists can't be infallible, is a failure to understand the basic foundations of science, which is to be sceptical. What matters is being right, not being popular.
After Newton's death, there was practically no advance in theories of light because he supported one or other (I forget which) of the particle/wave options (today the generally accepted model is duality with elements of both). After all, he was Newton, the great man, he couldn't be wrong. It was almost a religious fetish.
And so it is with man-made global warming. Climate change has always occurred. From the Triassic to the Jurassic it happened. Even in recorded history, a blink of the eye in geological terms, we've seen significant variations, with warm periods during the reigns of Caligula, Claudius, and Henry VIII, and a very cold period in the latter half of the 17th century.
It's also idiotic to use a correlation to try and prove causation. As a statistician would remind the class, two factors being very closely correlated can be indicative of x causing y, y causing x, or both being affected by z, an unknown third factor. Correlation, by definition, cannot prove causation (there's a very high correlation between ice-cream sales and drownings. Suggesting ice-creams cause drowning, or vice versa, has the same mathematical potency [that is to say, none] as suggesting a high correlation proves carbon dioxide causes global warming).
Not to mention the fact that the majority of actions suggested (better fuel efficiency, technological advances, improved insulation) are things both believers and non-believers in the Great God Warmor advocate.
And yes, you may very well be thinking I'm rambling about this to procrastinate. And you could be correct. And so am I.
Why, he's the sort of person that might be painted on a mural! (Sarcasm alert).
https://www.parliament.uk/biographies/lords/lord-mendelsohn/4286
Wonder how I decided my username?
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/08/tony-blair-isnt-only-new-labour-figure-far-left-past
We can however say, that rather like with economics, the "experts" are much more likely to be right than the non-experts, whatever the journo-politician Mr Gove would have us believe.
Mr. Foremain, we can certainly agree on the hysterical approach of the media. Even with basic things (like the difference between an e-reader and a tablet) they can, and do, make glaring mistakes.
Nemsis by Konami was my favourite game.
I looked at a clip of it on You tube a little while ago.
Looks a touch dated compared with thtoday's offerings
they really are just taking the piss
Corbyn will say case closed though
47.9 Qatar
19.6 Saudi Arabia
16.5 Australia
16.5 USA
15.5 Canada
11.7 South Korea
11.4 Russia
9.8 Germany
9.5 Japan
8.4 S Africa
8.2 Iran
7.2 China
6 Italy
5.9 UK
5.3 France
5.1 Turkey
Source: http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
Poland is 8.3 tonnes/person, Sweden 4.6, Croatia 4.3, Iceland and Norway both over 10.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/13/skripals-russia-putin-salisbury-poisoning-suspects-interview
Newton was right up to a point, what came later added to scientific knowledge. Your correlation/causation paragraph is right too, although irrelevant to our discussion.
We shouldn't give equal weight to everyone's opinion. Cigarette smoking does cause lung cancer, the moon landings were real, autism isn't caused by the mmr vaccine and anthropogenic climate change is real.
Paul McCartney considers climate change deniers to be stupid and I agree.Pity one of them is the US President.