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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Silly season. What conspirac

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters show Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a different approach to the podcast and look at public opinion on conspiracy theories using some exclusive polling from Opinium.
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I wonder what the direction was for his pose in that photo, it's not bad or anything but I'm unsure what he's going for.
The polls apparently put Labour slightly ahead.
I submit that no-one really cares.
And that opinion polls are a waste of time.
Comparing the two main parties at the moment is like arguing which morsel of dog shit on your boots is the more appealing.
https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/1029846817196916736?s=21
I do like the near future mocumentary style programme - any others anyone can recommend?
It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good.
There is nothing new under the sun.
Hoist by his own petard.
https://twitter.com/James4Labour/status/1029799018686230528
After three terms, a party loses. These cultists have no idea about political history or how electorates work or, well, frankly, how to sit on the toilet the right way around.
Not to say he has the solutions for the party now of course, but even so people really don't like it when former leaders chime in, do they?
I preferred him to Blair, frankly, certainly style wise.
Both men were very poor at the cut and thrust of politics but both also scored major achievements – Brown for his role in the aftermath of the GFC and Major on Northern Ireland.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1029843856102252563
He was a complete, utter, disaster. His big problem was a toxic combination of two big character flaws: he wanted to take all decisions himself (like Blair), but (unlike Blair) he was completely incapable of making decisions. A control freak incapable of controlling. As a result, files piled up in his study in No 10. He'd go and dither over them, and nothing happened.
His only redeeming feature is that at least he had the smarts to swallow his pride and bring in Peter Mandelson to help him out. That mitigated the damage.
I like/liked Brown a great deal, but come on - him losing the election wasn't just about the electoral cycle, it was about his HUGE deficiencies as a politician (or, more precisely, his deficiencies as the "lead singer" -- by all accounts he was pretty good as a back-room strategist).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrot_and_stick
By contrast, people thought Brown was useless AND arrogant, which meant he threw away the "sympathy" card even when things were really bad for him (a bit like Hillary).
The clergymans daughter vs the son of the manse is pretty much a dead heat.
https://www.thelocal.it/20180815/five-star-movement-founder-reportedly-mocked-warnings-of-collapse-of-morandi-bridge
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/genoa-bridge-collapse-safety-issues-italy-government-five-star-movement-league-populists-a8492201.html
Good night all.
And in turn, partly a reaction to the concoction of Europhiles who prevented them having a say.
Gordon Brown led nothing. His government reacted - late - to the crisis, and in the end did what every single government in its position would have had to do, thanks to Darling. And, whilst it is true that the crisis 'started in America', and was a world crisis, Gordon Brown bears a lot of the responsibility for the fact that the UK was so badly hit; it was precisely his destruction of the financial supervision system which was the cause of that. For 150 years, before Brown, the UK had never had a bank run or a systemic crisis threatening the banking system, despite two world wars, the Great Depression, the banking crises of the late nineteenth century, the secondary banking crisis, the oil price crisis, etc. But he thought he knew better, took overall responsibility away from the Bank of England, and gave it to.. no-one.
What's more, he was warned, in terms, of how stupid this was. We should never forget Peter Lilley's prophetic words from 1997.
The What & The Why - Entryism via Jeremy Corbyn - Stage Hard Left
"‘Entryist n, adj – The policy or practice of members of a particular political group joining an existing political party with the intention of changing its principles and policies, instead of forming a new party.’"
The underlying difference is that most Labour members like Corbyn and look forward to his being PM, while most Tory members seem less than enthusiastic about Mrs May and mainly differ on when to remove her. That gives his position an underlying resilience that Mrs May struggles to achieve.
The reason Britain was so badly hit had sod all to do with financial supervision but was simply because we had (and have) a relatively large financial services sector.
The rest is that the voters will not blame themselves for the Conservative concoction of Brexit.
Best PM (Own party 2017 vote*)/(Current VI):
May: 74 (88)
Corbyn: 50 (68)
*Con VI on May, Lab VI on Corbyn
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8dvhq299ql/TimesResults_180809_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Bit embarrassing then that the EU are now saying that regulatory divergence from the UK just on services would potentially cut EU GDP by 8-9% over 15 years. If there are no benefits from Brexit, why would they care if the UK diverges?
Or is this simply proof of what Leavers have been saying all along - the EU single market is an inefficient protectionist construct and the EU's entire negotiating aim in Brexit is to hold the UK in the EU's regulatory orbit because they know that a clean Brexit would make the UK far more competitive than the EU....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/15/details-eu-meeting-blew-away-mays-brexit-plan-suppressed-crucial/
Unbelievable.
https://twitter.com/eddiemarsan/status/1029894795156758528?s=21
Sterling has fallen for 12 consecutive trading sessions, dipping 0.3 per cent to as low as $1.2689 yesterday, its weakest since June 2017. The last time the currency fell for 12 days running was in August 2008, weeks before Lehman Brothers went bust, tipping the global economy into recession.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/sterling-has-its-worst-run-since-crash-f8mq0m7td
The winning bet at the next election looks to be reduced turnout.
Yep, Gordon Brown was that kind of stupid.