politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now tha
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Because they view the risk of a renewed campaign of violence by the IRA as low, so it is viewed as being less important?0
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Seconded, totally agree with Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
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Southern Ireland is today shaped by its membership of the EU, indeed, its use of referendums to decide important issues outside elections has become the norm. You talk of people being ignorant of Irish politics, that they have either forgotten the troubles or don't understand the history. I think that anyone who suggests that the current risk of a civil war in NI is dependent on the creation of a soft/hard border on the back of Brexit does not realise how little impact Ireland and UK becoming members of the EU had in preventing the troubles kicking off in the first place in the 1970's!nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
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Identity politics stinks. We'd all be better off without it, minorities and majorities alike.MyBurningEars said:
Putting aside sudden shocks from a too-brief transition or the possibility of No Deal, decline in living standards relative to some unobserved counterfactual of continued EU membership may be masked by general improvements in living standards over time. Every year since granting Indian independence and starting the wind-up of its Empire, the UK has been getting poorer relative to the counterfactual of its post-imperial pivot being accession as a State of the USA. We would likely have converged to a significantly higher GDP per capita and standard of living had we done so, we could have kept the NHS, we could have significantly moderated US presidential politics... but the road not taken doesn't concern us so much as the one that we did. Brexit is somewhat different, as an active change of direction, and will doubtless be blamed for all manner of good and ills, rightly or wrongly, for decades to come.nielh said:If Brexit happens, then it will lead to a fall in living standards, which people will complain about.
As for the inevitably to the rise of the far right, it's interesting that the two main parties are polling comparatively well at the moment when the public has such little truck with both their leaders - and even though many voters, particularly the young, reportedly feeling angry and energised by Brexit, the Lib Dems remain flatlined far below their peak. Meanwhile UKIP have practically evaporated. Post-Brexit, even with an EEA-type deal, it's hard to see an anti-European party serve as a significant vehicle for the far right, when UKIP struggled for so long even with the cause of full-on EU membership and the possibility of the UK joining the euro.
If a significant subset of white people feel alienated by "diversity", or sick of seeing other groups be told they should be proud of the colour of their skin, embrace solidarity with their "community", and take pride in their roots and history, then at some point we are going to end up with people who are proud to be white, proud of those parts of history and society they can claim as "theirs" to the exclusion of "others", and they're going to have some "community leader" figures I wouldn't want to meet on a dark night. I am not a fan of identity politics partly for this reason. My hope is that such groups remain so fringe that FPTP gives us good enough insurance against them. But I wouldn't want to give them a more broadly acceptable platform, for instance some Great Brexit Betrayal, to exploit.nielh said:The rise of the far right is the logical consequence of identity politics, political correctness and the marginalisation of the white working class.
Eventually, the white working class will create their own identity politics.0 -
Agreed.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Really, the group of Leavers who might be regarded as acting irrationally are the DUP Leavers, who run the (relatively small, but probably growing) risk of ending up part of both the EU and Eire.0 -
Exactly. The case for a "border" poll is becoming undeniable.rcs1000 said:
Agreed.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Really, the group of Leavers who might be regarded as acting irrationally are the DUP Leavers, who run the (relatively small, but probably growing) risk of ending up part of both the EU and Eire.0 -
But Tories would end up with 2 seats !HYUFD said:
A Bannon Farage Tommy Robinson Party could certainly get 25 to 35% of the vote and even end up the largest party in parliament under FPTP if Brexit was reversedMyBurningEars said:
I'd rate it as a risk rather than a guarantee, but I'd rate the risk as higher if it occurred (a) without a straight re-run referendum to legitimise it, (b) if it was primarily the Tories that did it, as this would push eurosceptics towards a new home, (c) if it was done by cross-party agreement (again, pushes eurosceptics out away from the "Establishment"), (d) if there was a referendum but it seemed deliberately contrived to favour Remain, (e) if there is any form of election or referendum with an especially tight result, or (f) all the "mainstream" parties reverted to accepting EU membership.HYUFD said:A hard right borderline Fascist Party on 25% combining UKIP and EDL types is pretty much guaranteed if the original Leave vote and Brexit are reversed
If the government collapses, and Labour won an election on a platform of cancelling article 50, and the Tories retain some kind of pro-Brexit or eurosceptic policy (e.g. for a new referendum but this time with some specific plan for Leave in mind, or to push for some kind of associate membership structure) then the voter backlash might be somewhat limited. If the Tories reverted to acceptance of EU membership, for instance if Labour called a referendum on cancelling article 50 and comfortably won it to take the issue off the mainstream table, things could get a bit hairier. But the worst case I can think of would be a Tory Remainer-backed coup, or surprise change-of-heart from Mrs May of the kind that @william seems to think is going to happen, with an emergency "undo article 50" vote in parliament (perhaps seen through to a majority by Labour backbenchers). We've been very fortunate in this country that FPTP has proved an effective barrier to extremism, but that's partly been a feature of how low a percentage extreme parties have tended to score. In that scenario, and for several elections that follow it, I'd actually be quite scared of the flip side of FPTP - that you can win a landslide on 35% of the vote (see Blair '05) and if politics are split form a government with less than 30% (see MacDonald '23).0 -
You almost gave me a heart attack! I though you’d mistyped John McDonald’s name... took a while to realise you meant Ramsey!MyBurningEars said:
I'd rate it as a risk rather than a guarantee, but I'd rate the risk as higher if it occurred (a) without a straight re-run referendum to legitimise it, (b) if it was primarily the Tories that did it, as this would push eurosceptics towards a new home, (c) if it was done by cross-party agreement (again, pushes eurosceptics out away from the "Establishment"), (d) if there was a referendum but it seemed deliberately contrived to favour Remain, (e) if there is any form of election or referendum with an especially tight result, or (f) all the "mainstream" parties reverted to accepting EU membership.HYUFD said:A hard right borderline Fascist Party on 25% combining UKIP and EDL types is pretty much guaranteed if the original Leave vote and Brexit are reversed
If the government collapses, and Labour won an election on a platform of cancelling article 50, and the Tories retain some kind of pro-Brexit or eurosceptic policy (e.g. for a new referendum but this time with some specific plan for Leave in mind, or to push for some kind of associate membership structure) then the voter backlash might be somewhat limited. If the Tories reverted to acceptance of EU membership, for instance if Labour called a referendum on cancelling article 50 and comfortably won it to take the issue off the mainstream table, things could get a bit hairier. But the worst case I can think of would be a Tory Remainer-backed coup, or surprise change-of-heart from Mrs May of the kind that @william seems to think is going to happen, with an emergency "undo article 50" vote in parliament (perhaps seen through to a majority by Labour backbenchers). We've been very fortunate in this country that FPTP has proved an effective barrier to extremism, but that's partly been a feature of how low a percentage extreme parties have tended to score. In that scenario, and for several elections that follow it, I'd actually be quite scared of the flip side of FPTP - that you can win a landslide on 35% of the vote (see Blair '05) and if politics are split form a government with less than 30% (see MacDonald '23).0 -
What you say looks right to me Mr. Meeks.
They're patriots dontcha know.
If they snick emselves they bleed red white, and blue.0 -
A more dignified response than the stark staring bonkers ravings of someone who evidently has been driven doolally by Brexit deserves.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Mr Meeks now joins Lord Adonis and AC Wailing in the Pantheon of Fame0 -
The republicans do not care who did it.Nemtynakht said:
Yet again something that should be blindingly obvious. We should commit as part of no deal to having no hard border. Then if Ireland want to put up a border the republicans cannot complain that NI did it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?williamglenn said:Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.
They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.
If a hard border exists, they see it as a consequence of the existence of Northern Ireland, which is what they’re opposed to. So they will try to blow it up. Who constructed it is immaterial.0 -
No they really would not.HYUFD said:
A Bannon Farage Tommy Robinson Party could certainly get 25 to 35% of the vote and even end up the largest party in parliament under FPTP if Brexit was reversedMyBurningEars said:
I'd rate it as a risk rather than a guarantee, but I'd rate the risk as higher if it occurred (a) without a straight re-run referendum to legitimise it, (b) if it was primarily the Tories that did it, as this would push eurosceptics towards a new home, (c) if it was done by cross-party agreement (again, pushes eurosceptics out away from the "Establishment"), (d) if there was a referendum but it seemed deliberately contrived to favour Remain, (e) if there is any form of election or referendum with an especially tight result, or (f) all the "mainstream" parties reverted to accepting EU membership.HYUFD said:A hard right borderline Fascist Party on 25% combining UKIP and EDL types is pretty much guaranteed if the original Leave vote and Brexit are reversed
If the government collapses, and Labour won an election on a platform of cancelling article 50, and the Tories retain some kind of pro-Brexit or eurosceptic policy (e.g. for a new referendum but this time with some specific plan for Leave in mind, or to push for some kind of associate membership structure) then the voter backlash might be somewhat limited. If the Tories reverted to acceptance of EU membership, for instance if Labour called a referendum on cancelling article 50 and comfortably won it to take the issue off the mainstream table, things could get a bit hairier. But the worst case I can think of would be a Tory Remainer-backed coup, or surprise change-of-heart from Mrs May of the kind that @william seems to think is going to happen, with an emergency "undo article 50" vote in parliament (perhaps seen through to a majority by Labour backbenchers). We've been very fortunate in this country that FPTP has proved an effective barrier to extremism, but that's partly been a feature of how low a percentage extreme parties have tended to score. In that scenario, and for several elections that follow it, I'd actually be quite scared of the flip side of FPTP - that you can win a landslide on 35% of the vote (see Blair '05) and if politics are split form a government with less than 30% (see MacDonald '23).0 -
Yet another poster who prefers to shoot the messenger than address what the polling clearly indicates. Shame.CarlottaVance said:
A more dignified response than the stark staring bonkers ravings of someone who evidently has been driven doolally by Brexit deserves.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Mr Meeks now joins Lord Adonis and AC Wailing in the Pantheon of Fame0 -
Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.0 -
That poll is about like asking: do you want to leave the EU and give 350m a week to the NHS or do you want children to die at Great Ormond Street? Pitiful stuff.0
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This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.0 -
When you're labelling the likes of Richard Nabavi as lacking reason it is time to search the mirror. Reasoned thread heads on all but the one topic. Shame.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet another poster who prefers to shoot the messenger than address what the polling clearly indicates. Shame.CarlottaVance said:
A more dignified response than the stark staring bonkers ravings of someone who evidently has been driven doolally by Brexit deserves.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Mr Meeks now joins Lord Adonis and AC Wailing in the Pantheon of Fame0 -
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
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Would you list “self awareness” among your strengths ?AlastairMeeks said:
Yet another poster who prefers to shoot the messenger than address what the polling clearly indicates. Shame.CarlottaVance said:
A more dignified response than the stark staring bonkers ravings of someone who evidently has been driven doolally by Brexit deserves.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Mr Meeks now joins Lord Adonis and AC Wailing in the Pantheon of Fame0 -
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.0 -
I was very aware what reaction this piece would produce.CarlottaVance said:
Would you list “self awareness” among your strengths ?AlastairMeeks said:
Yet another poster who prefers to shoot the messenger than address what the polling clearly indicates. Shame.CarlottaVance said:
A more dignified response than the stark staring bonkers ravings of someone who evidently has been driven doolally by Brexit deserves.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Mr Meeks now joins Lord Adonis and AC Wailing in the Pantheon of Fame
What not a single poster has done so far is read it to the end where there are testable predictions of what this might mean.0 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/markklotz/4550001017CarlottaVance said:
Would you list “self awareness” among your strengths ?AlastairMeeks said:
Yet another poster who prefers to shoot the messenger than address what the polling clearly indicates. Shame.CarlottaVance said:
A more dignified response than the stark staring bonkers ravings of someone who evidently has been driven doolally by Brexit deserves.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Mr Meeks now joins Lord Adonis and AC Wailing in the Pantheon of Fame0 -
On topic, I wouldn't take this too literally; Leaving no matter what is a tribal identifier, so it will tend to trump any practical concerns in surveys. And there's also a "should we let these people threaten us" angle, as people have said up-thread.
However, just because people say things like this doesn't mean they'll continue to vote for politicians who give them what they want. Voters will generally moan about governments that fail to do uncompromising populist things, but if the government actually does them and it turns out badly they won't forgive them for a decade.
Navigating these contradictions is the government's job, and the government isn't very good so there is some cause for worry, but I'm sure that TMay, and most Tory MPs, understand that "fuck everything" isn't a policy.0 -
There is an equally crazed intensity feeling for Remain/Reversal. Several hundred thousand on the streets of London waving EU flags is not a phenomenon that we saw before the referendum. The country is becoming even more divided in the two years since the referendum, and that is before anything has changed. If there is a single thing that people do not like, it is change.AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
While I have come round to a #peoplesvote to reverse Brexit, I do not see it as a simple solution. No doubt at all that the Brexiteers would be apoplectic. They might even come up with a form of Brexit more sophisticated than "We had to destroy the country in order to save it"0 -
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
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One of Farage’s master-strokes was keeping the Robinson-ites in UKIP fairly quiet and even kicking the odd one out when that failed - and producing the appearance of a wider policy programme which didn’t involve stringing up blacks. It’s what allowed leavers from across the political spectrum to lend him their vote.Philip_Thompson said:
No they really would not.HYUFD said:
A Bannon Farage Tommy Robinson Party could certainly get 25 to 35% of the vote and even end up the largest party in parliament under FPTP if Brexit was reversed
The party that is (I suspect) being described above would have a fervent and committed base, but absolutely no chance of electoral success in any usual circumstance. I’m only guessing, but it would struggle to get 10pc IMO. And it would be thinly enough spread that, given Clean Wholesome UKIP failed to win elections, it wouldn’t gain seats.
If it was formed in response to a softish Brexit and seemed to be the only show in town, that might increase its fortunes, but i think any overt racism would still scare off the vast majority.
I think it’s more likely that Farage will come back to recreate CWUKIP (either within or outside the existing UKIP husk). His promise would be to negotiate planes, medicines and WTO, then call a another general election. Even that wouldn’t get a majority - certainly not after anything but a full remainer-fantasy deal - but he might be able to march Sajid Javid to Brussels with a gun at his back.
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True, but the more fundamental point is that most people aren't crazed either way. There's a nice bell curved normal distribution of intensity of feeling on both sides of the vote. If you are calling people crazy for disagreeing with you really have already lost the argument.Foxy said:
There is an equally crazed intensity feeling for Remain/Reversal. Several hundred thousand on the streets of London waving EU flags is not a phenomenon that we saw before the referendum. The country is becoming even more divided in the two years since the referendum, and that is before anything has changed. If there is a single thing that people do not like, it is change.AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
While I have come round to a #peoplesvote to reverse Brexit, I do not see it as a simple solution. No doubt at all that the Brexiteers would be apoplectic. They might even come up with a form of Brexit more sophisticated than "We had do destroy the country in order to save it"0 -
That is how populism ends, with the populists in power disintegratting when they cannot deliver. Rrvolutions consume themselves until the tumbrils roll for the revolutionaries themselves.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.0 -
Well I think it's partly down to the fact that as a population we have been relatively inoculated from the experience of war for some time. It would have been interesting to see a sub-sample for Northern Ireland leavers.AlastairMeeks said:I wasn’t expecting universal enthusiasm for the article. I was hoping that the actual argument might be engaged with. Two posters have offered up different versions of “they don’t really mean it”, despite this requiring radical reinterpretation of the formally asked questions and all the different polling evidence suggesting that they do.
It’s time to take this polling literally and consider what that means. The answer is not good.
How would you expect Tory voters to choose between stopping Corbyn and peace in Northern Ireland?
Personally, I wouldn't sacrifice peace in Northern Ireland to get rid of Theresa May.
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I’ve updated my Twitter profile accordingly.JohnLoony said:I read as far as the first two lines of the article and then stopped. I am not prepared to waste my time if I am being gratuitously insulted in such a manner. Obviously Alastair Meeks is a luminous dollop of ectoplasm with purple custard hidden inside his elbows.
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But if Corbyn won a democratic vote, and the UVF threatened a return to large scale violence if he were to get in ?rkrkrk said:
Well I think it's partly down to the fact that as a population we have been relatively inoculated from the experience of war for some time. It would have been interesting to see a sub-sample for Northern Ireland leavers.AlastairMeeks said:I wasn’t expecting universal enthusiasm for the article. I was hoping that the actual argument might be engaged with. Two posters have offered up different versions of “they don’t really mean it”, despite this requiring radical reinterpretation of the formally asked questions and all the different polling evidence suggesting that they do.
It’s time to take this polling literally and consider what that means. The answer is not good.
How would you expect Tory voters to choose between stopping Corbyn and peace in Northern Ireland?
Personally, I wouldn't sacrifice peace in Northern Ireland to get rid of Theresa May.0 -
In the YouGov poll I referred to last year, less than half the percentage of Remainers saw job losses for their family or themselves as worth getting their way on Brexit as compared with Leavers.rkrkrk said:
Well I think it's partly down to the fact that as a population we have been relatively inoculated from the experience of war for some time. It would have been interesting to see a sub-sample for Northern Ireland leavers.AlastairMeeks said:I wasn’t expecting universal enthusiasm for the article. I was hoping that the actual argument might be engaged with. Two posters have offered up different versions of “they don’t really mean it”, despite this requiring radical reinterpretation of the formally asked questions and all the different polling evidence suggesting that they do.
It’s time to take this polling literally and consider what that means. The answer is not good.
How would you expect Tory voters to choose between stopping Corbyn and peace in Northern Ireland?
Personally, I wouldn't sacrifice peace in Northern Ireland to get rid of Theresa May.0 -
The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
Yeah then I'd probably be saying we can't give in to terrorists.Pulpstar said:
But if Corbyn won a democratic vote, and the UVF threatened a return to large scale violence if he were to get in ?rkrkrk said:
Well I think it's partly down to the fact that as a population we have been relatively inoculated from the experience of war for some time. It would have been interesting to see a sub-sample for Northern Ireland leavers.AlastairMeeks said:I wasn’t expecting universal enthusiasm for the article. I was hoping that the actual argument might be engaged with. Two posters have offered up different versions of “they don’t really mean it”, despite this requiring radical reinterpretation of the formally asked questions and all the different polling evidence suggesting that they do.
It’s time to take this polling literally and consider what that means. The answer is not good.
How would you expect Tory voters to choose between stopping Corbyn and peace in Northern Ireland?
Personally, I wouldn't sacrifice peace in Northern Ireland to get rid of Theresa May.0 -
Trying to wriggle Israel out of what they are doing with some legal mumbo jumbo is pretty pathetic. Their treatment of palestinians is shocking and cannot be excused.Cyclefree said:
Yeah - and Boris hasn’t helped.rottenborough said:
This one just runs and runs doesn't it.Scott_P said:
Labour must be extremely relieved that no one outside us junkies is paying any attention as it is hot and summer holidays.
Interesting though that after McDonnell’s intervention, which was implicitly critical of Corbyn, all this stuff comes out about what McDonnell has said and done. There’s some backstabbing going on, I think.
Do they? Genocide has a very specific meaning. See the relevant international law on this. Israel can be criticised for its treatment of the Palestinians within the Occupied Territories but it is not committing genocide on any interpretation of the term, let alone legally. Using such overheated language is all part of a concerted campaign to justify Israel’s destruction.grabcocque said:I don't wish to defend Corbyn or his lackeys, but...
Well, it *is* okay to accuse Israel of attempted genocide isn't it? Countries get accused of attempted or successful genocide all the time.0 -
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
I must have missed the clean and wholesome bit. Didn't a whole load of them get done for expenses fraud and the like, and another lot for making comments that were very far from C&W?Harris_Tweed said:
One of Farage’s master-strokes was keeping the Robinson-ites in UKIP fairly quiet and even kicking the odd one out when that failed - and producing the appearance of a wider policy programme which didn’t involve stringing up blacks. It’s what allowed leavers from across the political spectrum to lend him their vote.Philip_Thompson said:
No they really would not.HYUFD said:
A Bannon Farage Tommy Robinson Party could certainly get 25 to 35% of the vote and even end up the largest party in parliament under FPTP if Brexit was reversed
The party that is (I suspect) being described above would have a fervent and committed base, but absolutely no chance of electoral success in any usual circumstance. I’m only guessing, but it would struggle to get 10pc IMO. And it would be thinly enough spread that, given Clean Wholesome UKIP failed to win elections, it wouldn’t gain seats.
If it was formed in response to a softish Brexit and seemed to be the only show in town, that might increase its fortunes, but i think any overt racism would still scare off the vast majority.
I think it’s more likely that Farage will come back to recreate CWUKIP (either within or outside the existing UKIP husk). His promise would be to negotiate planes, medicines and WTO, then call a another general election. Even that wouldn’t get a majority - certainly not after anything but a full remainer-fantasy deal - but he might be able to march Sajid Javid to Brussels with a gun at his back.0 -
It isn't crazy to value that which was democratically determined above some difficult consequences. Democracy was in the past worth fighting for, it is you not Leavers that are crazed if you are prepared to sacrifice it so easily.AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
If Remain had won narrowly and then UKIP turned into a terrorist organisation setting off bombs across Britain and Europe to achieve "by bomb and bullet" that which they couldn't at the ballot box would you sacrifice our EU membership? Would you be prepared to give in to a hypothetical terrorist Farage in order to secure peace? Or would you be "crazed" enough to value our EU membership that had been democratically ratified more than avoiding that unpleasant conflict?0 -
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
Democracy means more than a union. If the Scots want to leave that is their choice. If they want to stay that is our choice. We've made our choice.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
Good article. Not sure whether it’s madness or the part of human nature that enables people to spend a life drinking and eating and still be surprised at a heart attack.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
The troubling thing for me, as I mentioned yesterday, is that I can see no way out, no way to reach a world where talented politicians debate sensible policies.
0 -
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
There's no difference to this question in my opinion.rkrkrk said:
Yeah then I'd probably be saying we can't give in to terrorists.Pulpstar said:
But if Corbyn won a democratic vote, and the UVF threatened a return to large scale violence if he were to get in ?rkrkrk said:
Well I think it's partly down to the fact that as a population we have been relatively inoculated from the experience of war for some time. It would have been interesting to see a sub-sample for Northern Ireland leavers.AlastairMeeks said:I wasn’t expecting universal enthusiasm for the article. I was hoping that the actual argument might be engaged with. Two posters have offered up different versions of “they don’t really mean it”, despite this requiring radical reinterpretation of the formally asked questions and all the different polling evidence suggesting that they do.
It’s time to take this polling literally and consider what that means. The answer is not good.
How would you expect Tory voters to choose between stopping Corbyn and peace in Northern Ireland?
Personally, I wouldn't sacrifice peace in Northern Ireland to get rid of Theresa May.0 -
Why would a Labour voter in Scotland continue to back the Union in the face of an unelectable Labour party and a Conservative party entirely dominated by right wing English nationalists? That is where we are going, David.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.
0 -
As that American guy writing in London for the New Yorker said, the way to get the British (English) to change our minds on Brexit is for someone from the EU (or our own government) to come along and tell us that we can't.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
Nationalism needs to be defeated north and south of the border, probably at the same time. Both movements fed off each other.SouthamObserver said:
Why would a Labour voter in Scotland continue to back the Union in the face of an unelectable Labour party and a Conservative party entirely dominated by right wing English nationalists? That is where we are going, David.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
A world where people think it is ok to daub JRM's house with paint and think its funny to leave condoms and a dildo on his lawn or that attacking MPs such as Jo Cox or the one who was attacked with a sword is not one where sane, talented people are attracted to a political career.Jonathan said:
Good article. Not sure whether it’s madness or the part of human nature that enables people to spend a life drinking and eating and still be surprised at a heart attack.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
The troubling thing for me, as I mentioned yesterday, is that I can see no way out, no way to reach a world where talented politicians debate sensible policies.0 -
It’s not the same point. It’s a question of priorities. Leavers prioritise Leaving above everything, the economy, the jobs of family and themselves, the state itself, peace.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.
I am at a loss as to why so many posters are determined to extensively rewrite polling responses to fit their own narrative when the literal meaning of the responses fits the facts far better.0 -
Good point. Politics is dominated by some horrible people and practices. Again, depressingly there is no way back from that. Another aspect of the trap we’re in.DavidL said:
A world where people think it is ok to daub JRM's house with paint and think its funny to leave condoms and a dildo on his lawn or that attacking MPs such as Jo Cox or the one who was attacked with a sword is not one where sane, talented people are attracted to a political career.Jonathan said:
Good article. Not sure whether it’s madness or the part of human nature that enables people to spend a life drinking and eating and still be surprised at a heart attack.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
The troubling thing for me, as I mentioned yesterday, is that I can see no way out, no way to reach a world where talented politicians debate sensible policies.0 -
We? They? I thought the U.K. voted as one, inviolable, indivisible, immaculate.Philip_Thompson said:
Democracy means more than a union. If the Scots want to leave that is their choice. If they want to stay that is our choice. We've made our choice.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
What Alastair forgets due to his own obsessions is that the English four years ago were prepared to let Scotland go their own way if that's what they wanted. We were reconciled to that already. We had agreed the choice on that was not to be ours.DavidL said:
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.
Why should we now sacrifice our own decision making on everything going forwards on the EU or anything else just because the Scots are split on whether they want to remain with the English or not?0 -
There will be a denoument, there always is. And something emerges from that. The trick is avoiding a too violent and destructive denoument. It’s not looking good.Jonathan said:
Good article. Not sure whether it’s madness or the part of human nature that enables people to spend a life drinking and eating and still be surprised at a heart attack.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
The troubling thing for me, as I mentioned yesterday, is that I can see no way out, no way to reach a world where talented politicians debate sensible policies.
0 -
It did vote as one and we will leave as one. But it isn't indivisible we accepted that in 2014.Bromptonaut said:
We? They? I thought the U.K. voted as one, inviolable, indivisible, immaculate.Philip_Thompson said:
Democracy means more than a union. If the Scots want to leave that is their choice. If they want to stay that is our choice. We've made our choice.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
They are also willing to rewrite the reality of Brexit to fit their own narrative of unicorns and Empire.AlastairMeeks said:I am at a loss as to why so many posters are determined to extensively rewrite polling responses to fit their own narrative when the literal meaning of the responses fits the facts far better.
Brexychosis...0 -
I think that is where we were in 2014 and why it was even close. Better Together was led almost exclusively by Labour politicians. This was a strategic choice to attract precisely those voters. Unfortunately that left those politicians seeking to justify a Tory led government imposing austerity (as if there was any choice). They couldn't do it with any enthusiasm, hence Darling's truly pitiful displays. Only Davidson was loud and proud to be British until Brown made his intervention towards the end. It was, as a unionist, intensely frustrating.SouthamObserver said:
Why would a Labour voter in Scotland continue to back the Union in the face of an unelectable Labour party and a Conservative party entirely dominated by right wing English nationalists? That is where we are going, David.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:0 -
That's exactly what they have been doing. All through the "negotiations".IanB2 said:
As that American guy writing in London for the New Yorker said, the way to get the British (English) to change our minds on Brexit is for someone from the EU (or our own government) to come along and tell us that we can't.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
Mr. Meeks, people want voters at the ballot box to determine how things are done, not those most willing to murder and terrorise. It's that simple. Creating a ridiculous forced choice to try and present one side in a bad light is ridiculous.
Suppose Scotland had voted to leave the UK. That isn't what I would want, but I'd respect the electorate's decision, and if a pro-union terrorist group had sprung up and promised a campaign without end if Scotland actually did leave, I would fully support the right of the Scottish people to determine their own destiny through democracy rather than submission to terrorism and capitulation to murderers.
Wouldn't you?
It's precisely the same as the blasphemy laws and Charlie Hebdo-style massacres I wrote of above.0 -
That's probably a good job too - look in a second EU ref I'd vote to remain most likely. Ceteris Paribus it's simply better for our prosperity to avoid as many barriers such as customs as possible. But please don't for the love of God lead the remain campaign or my fingers might end up slipping to leave xD.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.0 -
Leaving was democratically chosen.AlastairMeeks said:It’s not the same point. It’s a question of priorities. Leavers prioritise Leaving above everything, the economy, the jobs of family and themselves, the state itself, peace.
I am at a loss as to why so many posters are determined to extensively rewrite polling responses to fit their own narrative when the literal meaning of the responses fits the facts far better.
Swap the word Leave for democracy and tell me what you would be prepared to sacrifice democracy for? Should you value your own job more than democracy?
Getting a new job is easier than regaining democracy once lost.0 -
TAKE BACK CONTROL OF OUR BORDERS!!!!Philip_Thompson said:The border itself is rather moot.
Oh, wait, Phil says it's moot...0 -
My point is that, on the whole, Farage distanced himself from it because he had his eyes on the main prize, Brexit. I don’t doubt a lot of the membership (as with The Tories and apparently increasingly Labour) had unsavoury/unacceptable views, but I think NF did a reasonable job in not making them look like the people running the shop.IanB2 said:
I must have missed the clean and wholesome bit. Didn't a whole load of them get done for expenses fraud and the like, and another lot for making comments that were very far from C&W?Harris_Tweed said:
One of Farage’s master-strokes was keeping the Robinson-ites in UKIP fairly quiet and even kicking the odd one out when that failed - and producing the appearance of a wider policy programme which didn’t involve stringing up blacks. It’s what allowed leavers from across the political spectrum to lend him their vote.Philip_Thompson said:
No they really would not.HYUFD said:
A Bannon Farage Tommy Robinson Party could certainly get 25 to 35% of the vote and even end up the largest party in parliament under FPTP if Brexit was reversed
The party that is (I suspect) being described above would have a fervent and committed base, but absolutely no chance of electoral success in any usual circumstance. I’m only guessing, but it would struggle to get 10pc IMO. And it would be thinly enough spread that, given Clean Wholesome UKIP failed to win elections, it wouldn’t gain seats.
If it was formed in response to a softish Brexit and seemed to be the only show in town, that might increase its fortunes, but i think any overt racism would still scare off the vast majority.
I think it’s more likely that Farage will come back to recreate CWUKIP (either within or outside the existing UKIP husk). His promise would be to negotiate planes, medicines and WTO, then call a another general election. Even that wouldn’t get a majority - certainly not after anything but a full remainer-fantasy deal - but he might be able to march Sajid Javid to Brussels with a gun at his back.
(This is why the BoJo burka thing is toxic for him in the context of a future leadership contest. Not because his views are particularly strident as a backbencher, but because it cannot be the defining appearance of a party which sees itself as the natural ruler.)0 -
The campaign broke the lawPhilip_Thompson said:Leaving was democratically chosen.
0 -
It is. Control doesn't happen at the borders. Control happens elsewhere.Scott_P said:
TAKE BACK CONTROL OF OUR BORDERS!!!!Philip_Thompson said:The border itself is rather moot.
Oh, wait, Phil says it's moot...
Americans, Canadians and Australians can easily book a flight and cross our border. But can they get a minimum wage job here and get tax credits? No because they would need right of work and entitlement respectively. Neither is controlled at the border.0 -
Agreed. It is his obsession with Brexit that leads to these absurd decisions. If Scots choose to leave that is their choice. If the Irish think it is a good idea to start blowing each other up again that would be their choice too. Ultimately people have to make their own choices. That is life.Philip_Thompson said:
What Alastair forgets due to his own obsessions is that the English four years ago were prepared to let Scotland go their own way if that's what they wanted. We were reconciled to that already. We had agreed the choice on that was not to be ours.DavidL said:
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:
Why should we now sacrifice our own decision making on everything going forwards on the EU or anything else just because the Scots are split on whether they want to remain with the English or not?0 -
So you agree with La Sturgeon that Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against its will. Interesting.Philip_Thompson said:
It did vote as one and we will leave as one. But it isn't indivisible we accepted that in 2014.Bromptonaut said:
We? They? I thought the U.K. voted as one, inviolable, indivisible, immaculate.Philip_Thompson said:
Democracy means more than a union. If the Scots want to leave that is their choice. If they want to stay that is our choice. We've made our choice.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
If they lose their jobs no doubt that’s their decision too.DavidL said:
Agreed. It is his obsession with Brexit that leads to these absurd decisions. If Scots choose to leave that is their choice. If the Irish think it is a good idea to start blowing each other up again that would be their choice too. Ultimately people have to make their own choices. That is life.Philip_Thompson said:
What Alastair forgets due to his own obsessions is that the English four years ago were prepared to let Scotland go their own way if that's what they wanted. We were reconciled to that already. We had agreed the choice on that was not to be ours.DavidL said:
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:
Why should we now sacrifice our own decision making on everything going forwards on the EU or anything else just because the Scots are split on whether they want to remain with the English or not?0 -
In 2014 Labour was ahead in the polls and the UK was in the EU. And the Conservative party was not overtly English nationalist. Labour voters had reasons to back the Union. Next time they won’t.DavidL said:
I think that is where we were in 2014 and why it was even close. Better Together was led almost exclusively by Labour politicians. This was a strategic choice to attract precisely those voters. Unfortunately that left those politicians seeking to justify a Tory led government imposing austerity (as if there was any choice). They couldn't do it with any enthusiasm, hence Darling's truly pitiful displays. Only Davidson was loud and proud to be British until Brown made his intervention towards the end. It was, as a unionist, intensely frustrating.SouthamObserver said:
Why would a Labour voter in Scotland continue to back the Union in the face of an unelectable Labour party and a Conservative party entirely dominated by right wing English nationalists? That is where we are going, David.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:
0 -
The trick, with any luck, is hoping that it is heavily focused upon the Conservative Party as just desserts for having thrust this whole clusterf**k on us.SouthamObserver said:
There will be a denoument, there always is. And something emerges from that. The trick is avoiding a too violent and destructive denoument. It’s not looking good.Jonathan said:
Good article. Not sure whether it’s madness or the part of human nature that enables people to spend a life drinking and eating and still be surprised at a heart attack.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
The troubling thing for me, as I mentioned yesterday, is that I can see no way out, no way to reach a world where talented politicians debate sensible policies.0 -
Jobs come and go. Democracy is worth more than a job.AlastairMeeks said:
If they lose their jobs no doubt that’s their decision too.DavidL said:
Agreed. It is his obsession with Brexit that leads to these absurd decisions. If Scots choose to leave that is their choice. If the Irish think it is a good idea to start blowing each other up again that would be their choice too. Ultimately people have to make their own choices. That is life.Philip_Thompson said:
What Alastair forgets due to his own obsessions is that the English four years ago were prepared to let Scotland go their own way if that's what they wanted. We were reconciled to that already. We had agreed the choice on that was not to be ours.DavidL said:
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:
Why should we now sacrifice our own decision making on everything going forwards on the EU or anything else just because the Scots are split on whether they want to remain with the English or not?0 -
Democracy did not end in 2016. The public is entitled to change their minds. But a majority of Leavers prefer to double down on every negative consequence to prioritise Leaving. This can only be explained by an unreasoning hatred of the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
Leaving was democratically chosen.AlastairMeeks said:It’s not the same point. It’s a question of priorities. Leavers prioritise Leaving above everything, the economy, the jobs of family and themselves, the state itself, peace.
I am at a loss as to why so many posters are determined to extensively rewrite polling responses to fit their own narrative when the literal meaning of the responses fits the facts far better.
Swap the word Leave for democracy and tell me what you would be prepared to sacrifice democracy for? Should you value your own job more than democracy?
Getting a new job is easier than regaining democracy once lost.0 -
For a moment I thought 'NF' stood for 'National Front' and I was about to get sarcastic. Then I realised who you meant.Harris_Tweed said:I don’t doubt a lot of the membership (as with The Tories and apparently increasingly Labour) had unsavoury/unacceptable views, but I think NF did a reasonable job in not making them look like the people running the shop.
Quite funny that they have the same initials.0 -
It really isn’t looking good. Things are very unstable and there doesn’t seem to be anyone waiting in the wings. And there is a lot of anger and distrust about. We’re reaping the harvest of decades of negative politics.SouthamObserver said:
There will be a denoument, there always is. And something emerges from that. The trick is avoiding a too violent and destructive denoument. It’s not looking good.Jonathan said:
Good article. Not sure whether it’s madness or the part of human nature that enables people to spend a life drinking and eating and still be surprised at a heart attack.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
The troubling thing for me, as I mentioned yesterday, is that I can see no way out, no way to reach a world where talented politicians debate sensible policies.
It will get worse before it gets better.0 -
It attracts narcissists and ego-maniacs who are willing to pay (and let their family pay) a price that most would think unacceptable. And then we wonder why the Commons is filled with nutters!Jonathan said:
Good point. Politics is dominated by some horrible people and practices. Again, depressingly there is no way back from that. Another aspect of the trap we’re in.DavidL said:
A world where people think it is ok to daub JRM's house with paint and think its funny to leave condoms and a dildo on his lawn or that attacking MPs such as Jo Cox or the one who was attacked with a sword is not one where sane, talented people are attracted to a political career.Jonathan said:
Good article. Not sure whether it’s madness or the part of human nature that enables people to spend a life drinking and eating and still be surprised at a heart attack.SouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:AlastairMeeks said:Morris_Dancer said:
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.
The troubling thing for me, as I mentioned yesterday, is that I can see no way out, no way to reach a world where talented politicians debate sensible policies.0 -
The UK is closer to Australia, Canada and New Zealand than the USA.MyBurningEars said:
Putting aside sudden shocks from a too-brief transition or the possibility of No Deal, decline in living standards relative to some unobserved counterfactual of continued EU membership may be masked by general improvements in living standards over time. Every year since granting Indian independence and starting the wind-up of its Empire, the UK has been getting poorer relative to the counterfactual of its post-imperial pivot being accession as a State of the USA. We would likely have converged to a signtly moderated US presidential politics... but the road not taken doesn't concern us so much as the one that we did. Brexit is somewhat different, as an active change of direction, and will doubtless be blamed for all manner of good and ills, rightly or wrongly, for decades to come.nielh said:If Brexit happens, then it will lead to a fall in living standards, which people will complain about.
As for the inevitably to the rise of the far right, it's interesting that the two main parties are polling comparatively well at the moment when the public has such little truck with both their leaders - and even though many voters, particularly the young, reportedly feeling angry and energised by Brexit, the Lib Dems remain flatlined far below their peak. Meanwhile UKIP have practically evaporated. Post-Brexit, even with an EEA-type deal, it's hard to see an anti-European party serve as a significant vehicle for the far right, when UKIP struggled for so long even with the cause of full-on EU membership and the possibility of the UK joining the euro.
If a significant subset of white people feel alienated by "diversity", or sick of seeing other groups be told they should be proud of the colour of their skin, embrace solidarity with their "community", and take pride in their roots and history, then at some point we are going to end up with people who are proud to be white, proud of those parts of history and society they can claim as "theirs" to the exclusion of "others", and they're going to have some "community leader" figures I wouldn't want to meet on a dark night. I am not a fan of identity politics partly for this reason. My hope is that such groups remain so fringe that FPTP gives us good enough insurance against them. But I wouldn't want to give them a more broadly acceptable platform, for instance some Great Brexit Betrayal, to exploit.nielh said:The rise of the far right is the logical consequence of identity politics, political correctness and the marginalisation of the white working class.
Eventually, the white working class will create their own identity politics.
Up to 24% would vote for a far right anti immigration party with Yougov0 -
We had project fear, the promised punishment budget and the Treasury assuring us that there would be an immediate recession on the leave vote. And the majority voted to leave. That is what we know. In my opinion they did so because they, correctly, did not believe that risk would come to pass. And it didn't. Once again the same logic applies to the question in your thread header.AlastairMeeks said:
If they lose their jobs no doubt that’s their decision too.DavidL said:
Agreed. It is his obsession with Brexit that leads to these absurd decisions. If Scots choose to leave that is their choice. If the Irish think it is a good idea to start blowing each other up again that would be their choice too. Ultimately people have to make their own choices. That is life.Philip_Thompson said:
What Alastair forgets due to his own obsessions is that the English four years ago were prepared to let Scotland go their own way if that's what they wanted. We were reconciled to that already. We had agreed the choice on that was not to be ours.DavidL said:
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:
Why should we now sacrifice our own decision making on everything going forwards on the EU or anything else just because the Scots are split on whether they want to remain with the English or not?0 -
But it isn’t the same logic. It’s a ragbag of different reasons for sticking to your decision no matter what because you really really don’t want to change your mind.DavidL said:
We had project fear, the promised punishment budget and the Treasury assuring us that there would be an immediate recession on the leave vote. And the majority voted to leave. That is what we know. In my opinion they did so because they, correctly, did not believe that risk would come to pass. And it didn't. Once again the same logic applies to the question in your thread header.AlastairMeeks said:
If they lose their jobs no doubt that’s their decision too.DavidL said:
Agreed. It is his obsession with Brexit that leads to these absurd decisions. If Scots choose to leave that is their choice. If the Irish think it is a good idea to start blowing each other up again that would be their choice too. Ultimately people have to make their own choices. That is life.Philip_Thompson said:
What Alastair forgets due to his own obsessions is that the English four years ago were prepared to let Scotland go their own way if that's what they wanted. We were reconciled to that already. We had agreed the choice on that was not to be ours.DavidL said:
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:
Why should we now sacrifice our own decision making on everything going forwards on the EU or anything else just because the Scots are split on whether they want to remain with the English or not?0 -
Not while they remain majorities in the two largest counties in Northern Irelandrcs1000 said:
Agreed.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Really, the group of Leavers who might be regarded as acting irrationally are the DUP Leavers, who run the (relatively small, but probably growing) risk of ending up part of both the EU and Eire.0 -
A significant number of working class Labour voters could vote for such a party toosurby said:
But Tories would end up with 2 seats !HYUFD said:
A Bannon Farage Tommy Robinson Party could certainly get 25 to 35% of the vote and even end up the largest party in parliament under FPTP if Brexit was reversedMyBurningEars said:
I'd rate it as a risk rather than a guarantee, but I'd rate the risk as higher if it occurred (a) without a straight re-run referendum to legitimise it, (b) if it was primarily the Tories that did it, as this would push eurosceptics towards a new home, (c) if it was done by cross-party agreement (again, pushes eurosceptics out away from the "Establishment"), (d) if there was a referendum but it seemed deliberately contrived to favour Remain, (e) if there is any form of election or referendum with an especially tight result, or (f) all the "mainstream" parties reverted to accepting EU membership.HYUFD said:A hard right borderline Fascist Party on 25% combining UKIP and EDL types is pretty much guaranteed if the original Leave vote and Brexit are reversed
If the government collapses, and Labour won an election on a platform of cancelling article 50, and the Tories retain some kind of pro-Brexit or eurosceptic policy (e.g. for a new referendum but this time with some specific plan for Leave in mind, or to push for some kind of associate membership structure) then the voter backlash might be somewhat limited. If the Tories reverted to acceptance of EU membership, for instance if Labour called a referendum on cancelling article 50 and comfortably won it to take the issue off the mainstream table, things could get a bit hairier. But the worst case I can think of would be a Tory Remainer-backed coup, or surprise change-of-heart from Mrs May of the kind that @william seems to think is going to happen, with an emergency "undo article 50" vote in parliament (perhaps seen through to a majority by Labour backbenchers). We've been very fortunate in this country that FPTP has proved an effective barrier to extremism, but that's partly been a feature of how low a percentage extreme parties have tended to score. In that scenario, and for several elections that follow it, I'd actually be quite scared of the flip side of FPTP - that you can win a landslide on 35% of the vote (see Blair '05) and if politics are split form a government with less than 30% (see MacDonald '23).0 -
You mean, they expect the result of a referendum to be implemented?AlastairMeeks said:
..... a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.
Why is respecting a democratic decision 'a price to pay'?0 -
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1027450222920847360DavidL said:hey, correctly, did not believe that risk would come to pass. And it didn't.
0 -
Except you are wrong as given a majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave and Northern Ireland Catholics voted Remain the Brexit vote has made zero difference to the prospects of NI leaving the UK and as the SNP got 50% of the vote at the 2015 general election before the Brexit vote and just 37% of the vote after the Brexit vote the Brexit vote has made zero difference to the prospects for Scottish independence as well. If anything it has reversed its momentumAlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.0 -
No it isn't. Project fear is doubling down (having lost). We will not be able to fly, we will not be able to drive on the continent, we will have no medicine, we will all starve, all our financial service industries will leave, we will have mass unemployment, we will have war in Northern Ireland, no scare story is too ridiculous. People look at this nonsense and think, nah, don't think so. At the very margins they may be wrong in their assessment but it is a perfectly rational conclusion.AlastairMeeks said:
But it isn’t the same logic. It’s a ragbag of different reasons for sticking to your decision no matter what because you really really don’t want to change your mind.DavidL said:
We had project fear, the promised punishment budget and the Treasury assuring us that there would be an immediate recession on the leave vote. And the majority voted to leave. That is what we know. In my opinion they did so because they, correctly, did not believe that risk would come to pass. And it didn't. Once again the same logic applies to the question in your thread header.AlastairMeeks said:
If they lose their jobs no doubt that’s their decision too.DavidL said:
Agreed. It is his obsession with Brexit that leads to these absurd decisions. If Scots choose to leave that is their choice. If the Irish think it is a good idea to start blowing each other up again that would be their choice too. Ultimately people have to make their own choices. That is life.Philip_Thompson said:
What Alastair forgets due to his own obsessions is that the English four years ago were prepared to let Scotland go their own way if that's what they wanted. We were reconciled to that already. We had agreed the choice on that was not to be ours.DavidL said:
I completely disagree with that Malcolm but if the majority of Scots think that way then that is our choice and it really isn't obvious why the English should abrogate their decision about membership of the EU to Scots. This is where Alastair is going wrong.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:DavidL said:AlastairMeeks said:DavidL said:
Why should we now sacrifice our own decision making on everything going forwards on the EU or anything else just because the Scots are split on whether they want to remain with the English or not?0 -
No I’m not wrong. Unfortunately. You described perfectly where we are, but you refuse to accept it. The promised control we can take back that makes a difference is not in the EU, globalisation has eaten it.HYUFD said:
The only reason Leave got over 50% was the lack of transition controls by Blair in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries unlike most EU nations which did impose them. With those transition controls Leave would likely have got no more than 45%. That has got nothing to do with what business wants specifically as had we imposed them properly we would have been doing exactly the same as the rest of the EU.LordOfReason said:
No. There’s no control of borders coming back from leaving the EU. That’s nothing to do with Brexit. It’s hard to know when we last exercised such control to prove we had it, but if British state ever did have control of borders and immigration that was lost long ago to globalisation.HYUFD said:
I never said that, a mobility framework requires a job offer on arrival not ut name toowilliamglenn said:
I thought you'd already admitted that the mobility framework would be free movement in all but name?HYUFD said:
We have the ree movementrottenborough said:
We have no plan.LordOfReason said:rottenborough said:
This is a new vote, now that everyone knows what the fuck it actually means to leave the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In what way was 2016 NOT a #peoplesvote?Foxy said:
I think it quite likely that Labour will support #peoplesvote at its conference.rottenborough said:Even Lansman is on this one:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6972994/labour-jeremy-corbyn-brexit/
We are at the cliff edge.
Business dictates to government it can hire whatever medium, high, low skilled labour it wants from wherever it wants, if government says not in our little zone of control you aren’t, then the business can so easily set up outside that little zone of control. For that reason no British government will ever set up a little zone of control ever again. Staying in or leaving EU doesn’t change that fact in the slightest.
Container ships, internet, cheap labour resource abroad, Germans waiting with open arms for start ups, etc. From business perspective it’s fuck you government.
In any case you are also wrong as no country anywhere has open borders based on some sort of libertarian ultra big business globalisation plan. If it did the voters would throw the governing party out in 5 minutes for one imposing tighter controls0 -
Many Labour voters in Scotland voted Tory in 2017 to back the Union which is why the SNP lost over a third of their seatsSouthamObserver said:
Why would a Labour voter in Scotland continue to back the Union in the face of an unelectable Labour party and a Conservative party entirely dominated by right wing English nationalists? That is where we are going, David.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.0 -
That graph is worthy of the lib dems.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1027450222920847360DavidL said:hey, correctly, did not believe that risk would come to pass. And it didn't.
0 -
But boosts the British tourism industry.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1027450222920847360DavidL said:hey, correctly, did not believe that risk would come to pass. And it didn't.
Now as the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better to encourage more money to be spent in other countries or more money to be spent in this country ?0 -
Wrong, a plurality of Scots with Yougov even saw the Chequers Deal as too soft and more backed the Chequers Deal or No Deal than wanted a softer deal with the EU and full free movementSouthamObserver said:
I read it all and greatly enjoyed it. It does seem as if we are moving towards a tyranny of the 30%. It is not sustainable.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s up to posters to decide whether to read. Most evidently have preferred to be offended. I’m not running a campaign.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps a less intemperate presentation of your argument would have been more persuasive? Any other reasonable arguments presented in apocalyptic fashion lost recently?AlastairMeeks said:
This argument wilfully ignores the point I explicitly make that a majority of English Leavers see Northern Ireland’s independence as an acceptable price to pay, ditto Scotland’s independence and ditto for a plurality they or a family member losing their jobs. It is baffling how reluctant so many posters are to engage with the crazed intensity of feeling on the Leave side.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
That's weird. Tried signing in and it appeared not to work, then went to the Vanilla site and I'm in.
Anyway, I agree with Mr. Nabavi. You might as well ask if you approve of blasphemy laws or want more terrorism, and if you don't approve of making it illegal to draw a 7th century 'prophet' then you just don't care about Charlie Hebdo style massacres.
One thing you did not touch on is that the takeover of the Conservative and Unionist party by right wing English nationalists, combined with an economically difficult Brexit, is likely to push Scotland into a vote for independence. Of course, as you did observe, right wing English nationalists will have no problem with that. My view, now, is that as much as I would regret it we only reach the end game here once the Union does break up and we English are forced to properly confront our place in the world.0 -
"Sorry, kids, we can't go to Spain this year. You will love Skegness though..."another_richard said:But boosts the British tourism industry.
Now as the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better to encourage more money to be spent in other countries or more money to be spent in this country ?0 -
Indeed the public is entitled to change their mind at the next ballot box. A general election has already been fought since 2016 and a GB wide party had another referendum in their manifesto. They got 12 seats did from memory. Why should we abandon what we chose before another vote for any hypothetical? Democracy means we make our choice then it happens. A few years later we have a General Election where we get a new set of choices to choose between. If after we have left a party wins a General Election with a pledge to have a rejoin referendum that is fair enough.AlastairMeeks said:
Democracy did not end in 2016. The public is entitled to change their minds. But a majority of Leavers prefer to double down on every negative consequence to prioritise Leaving. This can only be explained by an unreasoning hatred of the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
Leaving was democratically chosen.AlastairMeeks said:It’s not the same point. It’s a question of priorities. Leavers prioritise Leaving above everything, the economy, the jobs of family and themselves, the state itself, peace.
I am at a loss as to why so many posters are determined to extensively rewrite polling responses to fit their own narrative when the literal meaning of the responses fits the facts far better.
Swap the word Leave for democracy and tell me what you would be prepared to sacrifice democracy for? Should you value your own job more than democracy?
Getting a new job is easier than regaining democracy once lost.0 -
Meanwhile the negative effects on the EU of Brexit (and their decisions as a result of it) - like the EMA losing 30% of their staff and curtaining international cooperation as a result of their decision to flee London by March 2019 go largely unreported.....DavidL said:
No it isn't. Project fear is doubling down (having lost). We will not be able to fly, we will not be able to drive on the continent, we will have no medicine, we will all starve, all our financial service industries will leave, we will have mass unemployment, we will have war in Northern Ireland, no scare story is too ridiculous. People look at this nonsense and think, nah, don't think so. At the very margins they may be wrong in their assessment but it is a perfectly rational conclusion.0 -
You dissing Skegness?Scott_P said:
"Sorry, kids, we can't go to Spain this year. You will love Skegness though..."another_richard said:But boosts the British tourism industry.
Now as the UK has a tourism deficit of over £20bn is it better to encourage more money to be spent in other countries or more money to be spent in this country ?0 -
No, they voted against the SNP. They did not vote for the English Nationalist party, which the Conservative party is now well down the path to becoming. Indeed, you expect an English nationalist to become the party’s next leader. And Boris Johnson is not a popular figure in Scotland, to say the least - ask Ruth Davison.HYUFD said:
Many Labour voters in Scotland voted Tory in 2017 to back the Union which is why the SNP lost over a third of their seatsSouthamObserver said:
Why would a Labour voter in Scotland continue to back the Union in the face of an unelectable Labour party and a Conservative party entirely dominated by right wing English nationalists? That is where we are going, David.DavidL said:
It is the same point Alastair. People are not willing to be bullied. They (correctly) believe that such a scenario is unlikely but they are not willing to change their conclusion because of such a theoretical risk. Unless you are willing to surrender all decisions to others, particularly unreasonable others, such a conclusion is inevitable. I suspect people are being misled by the question into believing that this is the hypothetical forced choice. If they weren't the percentages would surely be higher.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.
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Mr L,
"narcissists and ego-maniacs."
Two very accurate terms for the Remain fanatics who can't stand the thought that their very accurate (in their own eyes) analyses have been rejected by the electorate.
The very thought of it remains unbearable. How dare the troglodytes ignore their betters? If this is democracy, then democracy is wrong.
This attitude means that the leaver views often harden.0 -
Given over a third of even SNP voters voted Leave there is no guarantee even an independent Scotland would rejoin the EU at most maybe the single market.malcolmg said:
It can only be a good thing for Scotland, independence and back in EU is the likely outcome and it cannot come soon enough.AlastairMeeks said:
I have a clear and coherent explanation why a majority of English Leavers see Scottish independence as an acceptable price to pay for Brexit. Clearly it has nothing to do with Northern Irish terrorism. I await yours with interest.DavidL said:
With respect, you are the one that is misreading it. You are misreading it because Brexit has become a monomania with you. The vast majority just don't see it like that but that does not mean they are willing to be pushed around for the reasons I have explained.AlastairMeeks said:
Again, you’re ignoring all the other polling I refer to that undermines your heavy rewriting of the poll responses. Their is no warrant for not treating this polling literally.DavidL said:The way I read this question is am I willing to be blackmailed into doing something I really don't want to do by a bunch of largely retired Irish terrorists? The answer, of course, is hell no.
The logic behind the question is are you committed to achieving peace at any price, any price at all? The answer to that if people think logically about it is always going to be no.
Of course I want a solution to leaving that minimises the risk of terrorism once again starting up on these shores. I agree with the observations of @Richard_Nabavi on this. In a deal or no deal scenario we will continue to have different laws, different tax rates and different duties on either side of the border as we do today. If we don't enforce the border there will be some adverse tax implications, as there are today. We can live with that. If the EU or Eire can't that is a matter for them but I suspect they will. If they choose not to and this upsets some ex IRA then that would be unfortunate but it sure isn't the basis on which we can determine our policy.
After all what is the logic of swapping London for Brussels? If devolution is not enough for you and you want full independence logically you go for the whole hog0 -
It does have the feel of 1780s France about it.Jonathan said:
It really isn’t looking good. Things are very unstable and there doesn’t seem to be anyone waiting in the wings. And there is a lot of anger and distrust about. We’re reaping the harvest of decades of negative politics.
It will get worse before it gets better.0
