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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other upcoming leadership contest – Who will replace Jeremy Corbyn?
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Regarding the chat in previous thread, the 'Long Road Home' by Shephard is well worth a read. We tend to think of WWII as ending with the celebration and relief of VE and VJ Day, followed by grind of 1950s austerity. Yet for millions in central and Eastern Europe, both already displaced and about-to-be so, the miseries continued for years after 1945.
It is an argument which legitimises anti-Semitism because it deems the creation of Israel to be an original sin. From that point Israel and the Jews can do no right.
When you and I had an exchange the other day I hadn't realised that you objected to the State of Israel also, as well as its supposed abuses. As I said then I'm looking forward to seeing you on the march to restore all modern nations to their indigenous populations.
Thornberry is a good call, but I wouldnt dismiss some of the other sisters, notably Jess Philips and Stella Creasy. Outside the Shadow Cabinet, but ambitious and young. Not cultists, but both with other strengths. Jess is hardly a metropolitan elite, but quite close to HH, and Stella Creasy does EQ better than almost any other Labour first ranker.
I dont think that Corbyn will be replaced by a Mini-me, leadership changes, in power and out of it are usually used to rethink approach.
Thornberry is a possibility, although I would think she would struggle in an election.
If he is replaced in office, credibly it can only be from someone already in the top team. Therefore it depends on who his key appointments are likely to be.
A scenario not examined in the lead is if Labour finds itself only able to form a government by dealing with the SNP and/or the LibDems.
It may be the Colonel faute de mieux, but as Theresa May is so graphically proving that's not a good reason to pick anyone.
Edit - I should add, I think the value is in him retiring shortly. I thought before the last election that he would go next year when he hits 70, and unless there is a general election imminent it seems possible that will be when he quits.
The UN had a vote and thereby partitioned Palestine.
Both the Jews and the Palestinians had been there for centuries. Each got a State. Sounds fair to me. Why do you want to discriminate against one set of peoples?
Back in the Autumn of 2016 I bragged that I had bagged RBL at 66/1 and 100/1.
Alastair then burst my bubble by saying he had got her at odds of 350/1.
Then another PBer piped in and said he had got odds of even more than 350/1
In 2011, Mahmoud Abbas stated that it was a historic mistake for the Arabs not to have accepted the 1947 UN Partition Plan.
https://www.haaretz.com/1.5216743
Ian Kershaw To Hell and Back covers the unedifying events which kicked off once the fighting ended.
The likelihood of the rump Lib Dem party being in a position to hold the balance of power - i.e. Lab + SNP being both close enough to a majority for the LDs to get them over the finishing line, but not so far short as to render this impractical and allow the Tories to soldier on, seems remote.
1 in 5 chance of standing down soon seems reasonable - possible, but pretty unlikely. A bit like May getting through the next phase of Brexit seems key as to whether he might step down, albeit for very different reasons. Whether there is an early election is key to both that, and whether he stands down after a GE win during or after a term in office, as it reduces the age issue.
Starmer does have a credible air about him, generally seems to be playing things fairly smartly on the Brexit front while doing his own thing a bit, so I could see him as a successor.
If the UN had a vote and thereby partitioned the UK and gave the Muslims a state by taking land out of England I am sure there would be complaints.
Would this be because of discrimination?
So to clarify, the reason it was okay for Arab Muslims to be punished for European crimes is because the UN voted to do it?
The whole it is okay because people voted for it is a dark road.
They've come up with something even more mingin' than pineapple on pizza.
Mayonnaise Ice Cream.
https://www.thisisinsider.com/mayonnaise-ice-cream-ice-artisan-2018-7
At least the ones on here today are honest enough and aren't even saying they are not anti-Semitic.
I reserve all rights to "the Time Warp manoeuvre"* should she win.
*A jump to the left, then a step to the right
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/02/next-labour-leader-lets-do-the-time-warp-again/
(NB Apologies for bad phrasing: those poor sods who were chased out of Myanmar certainly didn't do any wrong, but you see where I'm coming from. Acts of ethnic cleansing in other parts of the world that involve different minority groups attract little attention.)
Although I would be reluctant to criticise as I can imagine that I and other British people would fight people coming to take our land even if there was a chance that we would lose more land as a consequence of resisting.
Rejecting the 47 partition plan was an historic mistake.
Rejecting the 67 borders was an historic mistake.
Rejecting the 00 peace proposal was an historic mistake.
How many more historic mistakes will we need to go through?
"I think the next Labour leadership contest will be an all women affair."
I agree. The 'time for a woman' call will be unstoppable. Possibly not Kate Hoey, though.
Not that it will happen - but then, stranger things have happened. Incitatus becoming a Senator, for one.
We cannot and should not leave Israel and the Jewish nation to its own fate. We must defend them, it is our duty to make sure that they aren't left to be exterminated.
Google Casus Belli.
The minor detail they were caught by surprise when the Israelis did exactly what they had threatened to do and bombed seven shades of excrement out of them merely goes to show that Nasser and his generals actually were as thick as five posts and not the great national figures and military leaders they believed themselves to be.
Henry has his finger on the pulse. I have Angela Rayner covered too. She will get union support. I like her, but then I have always liked the feisty ones.
The 56 war was ended with a ceasefire agreeing that the conflict would end and the Straits would be kept open under UN supervision. Egypt terminated the ceasefire, kicked out the UN supervisors and then were "surprised" that the conflict ended with the ceasefire happened. Seriously?
A Line in the Sand by James Barr is also very good.
If you mean, 'they deliberately engineered the Wars,' (which would be my definition) then no. They weren't responsible for duff Soviet intelligence, the withdrawal under duress of UN peacekeepers or Nasser's publicly stated desire to start a war to wipe Israel off the map.
And in 1956 of course they were simply adroitly exploiting a war between Britain/France and Egypt. They did not 'start' that one except, again, they invaded to provide the Anglo-French pretext for war.
Everything about her screams London urban left-wing snob.
Justifiable pre-emption possibly, but whether Nasser was just sabre rattling as so many times before, we cannot know.
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/diary/kate-osamor-shoots-messenger-after-interview-causes-controversy
It reminds me of the American author Richard Carrier, who sued somebody for libel after a claim that he had seduced a delegate at a conference - only to have to withdraw that charge when she pointed out she was quoting, word for word, his own blogpost on the subject!
I typically refrain from actually gambling real money on anything, save for the annual flutter on the National. But perhaps I shall follow my instincts in this case and wager a few pence?
I sense Merkel either can't or won't move, but there are others in the CSU and her Government who disagree.
No, I do not accept your definition of 'starting' he War, certainly not in 1967. Nasser had broken a ceasefire, committed acts of war and declared his intention to destroy Israel. The fact he wasn't actually throwing things at them was irrelevant.
If you run up to somebody who (a) is a champion boxer (b) is wearing brass knuckles and (c) you never liked, and shout loudly, 'I'm here with all my mates, we've cut off your escape route and we're going to tear you to pieces with our bare hands...'
Don't be surprised if you find before the last word is out there's a mysterious gap in your memory before you wake up in intensive care.
Saying afterwards 'we didn't mean it, why did you beat us all up?' isn't a great defence, and good luck trying to persuade the judge that he started it.
That's what Nasser was trying to do. He got thumped. The Palestinians have suffered ever since.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/27/jean-claude-juncker-seeks-deal-on-free-movement-of-pets
If Labour & Mr Corbyn do lose the next election, surely it is practically guaranteed that the next Labour leader will become PM?
Won't that add to the incentive for the ambitious? Will anyone be willing to stand aside for others?
Good evening, everyone.
The ongoing issue is its behaviour in the occupied territories since, including annexation of territory in East Jerusalem and settlements, while denying the Palestinians rights to that land. While pre 1948 Palestine had both Jewish and Arab populations, the territories occupied post 1967 were indisputably arab populated.
"Further, as a matter of democratic accountability, given the enormous importance of so many issues that would be decided in an Article 50 renegotiation – a far, far bigger deal than a normal election – it seems right to give people a vote on it."
Implicit in the rest of the post is that Remain should be an option - he discusses whether having a Leave in the first referendum not be an irrevocable choice to exit due to this referendum on the deal might make it easier to win the first referendum by making it less of a leap in the dark.
There was a ceasefire in place following the 56 conflict but Egypt ended the ceasefire.
Ending a ceasefire with someone you're at war with is pretty much initiating a conflict isn't it?
Nasser couldn't have been just sabre rattling he'd already acted. He'd scrapped the ceasefire, kicked out the UN and shut down the Straits.
I'd rate Rebecca Long-Bailey as a serious threat to the Conservatives at the next election.
But, Britain got zero gratitude for it from either side.
I think Thornberry and Rayner are two of the most likely, Nandy as well a bit more of an outside bet. I think outside of RLB then it starts looking like a stretch. Clive Lewis is a good candidate but probably the wrong gender, some of the others outside the cabinet probably not for various reasons due to lack of profile or maybe just not a favourable profile within the Labour party.
What apocalypse said earlier probably matches my views somewhat, although I prefer not to hate people, not a fan of Jess Phillips but I don't really have anything against Stella Creasy. I think she helped bring about the change to allow N. Irish women to get abortions free on the NHS. Whilst I'm probably to the left of her I have a much more positive impression.
Even if the Commission wins, it will lose, because it will have a sullen, divided and resentful Britain perpetually unsatisfied with its relationship and disruptive.
The UK won't simply fall into line and forget all about it, like Selmayr seems to (very naively) think it will.
I've only been betting on politics for 15 years.