I reckon 55/45 for Remain, mostly by better turnout from the young, and worse turnout by bored CDEs.
I reckon 75:25 for Remain, because the Leavers will quite properly boycott a second referendum. And then where will you be? No mandate.
The Leavers will simply say that since the establishment broke their promise last time, there is no point voting again.
That was pointed out to me today, and it rather skittled me. What if Leavers simply boycott the second referendum? It means a 2nd vote will 1. be catastrophic for our democracy and 2.the vote is morally invalid, whatever the result. So the damage will be done for no benefit.
It's a real threat. And I am sure it will happen.
My sad, drunken conclusion is that we have to press on. Brexit, hard, soft or diamond, is what will happen. Oy vay.
I can't see how it would be that clear cut. And since only 37.5% of the electorate voted to leave, if a similar or larger number voted to remain in ref2, it would be undeniably valid.
A lot more popular than Kate Hoey, although that is a bar nobody should really fail to clear. Be happy to see both of them and Woodcock gone. Wish them all the best of luck outside of politics though.
You may be happy that there is apparently a coordinated move in place to deselect Labour MPs who rebel over Brexit. You can forget about the 24% of Leave voters who are still prepared to vote Labour though, according to the latest YouGov, including myself. If you can't remain a Labour MP if you are in favour of Brexit, then surely the rest of us can't remain as a Labour voters either?
O'Mara and Woodcock are pro EU or at least not really Brexitity.
Skinner is pro Brexit for example and I wouldn't want him to be deselected. Speaking for myself it is for many reasons, I imagine much the same with the CLPs considering how the votes went, that Hoey couldn't get a single vote is telling. I could see a situation given the right candidate where I would be happy for a more eurosceptic MP to replace the current one, say someone replacing Woodcock (if he hadn't gone already) as an example.
The irony of the hard left demanding loyalty to the leadership is breathtaking.
But carry on chum, it helps us Blues.
I can't see replacing Hoey as being anything but a bonus for the vote in that constituency. Frank Field has a safe seat in Liverpool, if we had Satan as our candidate we would probably win it at a canter. Woodcock, who left anyway would have probably had a worse result than Frank Field in his CLP and there were actually people (or so I heard) who wanted a Labour government threatening to vote for other parties because they wouldn't vote for him. Not sure I even need to make the case for O' Mara.
Maybe Woodcock might help you, but equally it might help us, the rest I can't really see it at all.
For God's sake don't say Field has a seat in Liverpool! Messages matter.
A lot more popular than Kate Hoey, although that is a bar nobody should really fail to clear. Be happy to see both of them and Woodcock gone. Wish them all the best of luck outside of politics though.
You may be happy that there is apparently a coordinated move in place to deselect Labour MPs who rebel over Brexit. You can forget about the 24% of Leave voters who are still prepared to vote Labour though, according to the latest YouGov, including myself. If you can't remain a Labour MP if you are in favour of Brexit, then surely the rest of us can't remain as a Labour voters either?
O'Mara and Woodcock are pro EU or at least not really Brexitity.
Skinner is pro Brexit for example and I wouldn't want him to be deselected. Speaking for myself it is for many reasons, I imagine much the same with the CLPs considering how the votes went, that Hoey couldn't get a single vote is telling. I could see a situation given the right candidate where I would be happy for a more eurosceptic MP to replace the current one, say someone replacing Woodcock (if he hadn't gone already) as an example.
The irony of the hard left demanding loyalty to the leadership is breathtaking.
But carry on chum, it helps us Blues.
I can't see replacing Hoey as being anything but a bonus for the vote in that constituency. Frank Field has a safe seat in Liverpool, if we had Satan as our candidate we would probably win it at a canter. Woodcock, who left anyway would have probably had a worse result than Frank Field in his CLP and there were actually people (or so I heard) who wanted a Labour government threatening to vote for other parties because they wouldn't vote for him. Not sure I even need to make the case for O' Mara.
Maybe Woodcock might help you, but equally it might help us, the rest I can't really see it at all.
See below.
Messages matter.
A full-blown hard left takeover of the party (rather than just the leadership) wouldn't endear Labour to the public.
A few MPs stepped down at the last election, I think most people barely noticed.
If you actively replace 100+ MPs it would be all over the media and would make an impression (although I think you overestimate the public attachment to them) though that doesn't seem likely to happen.
If anything I think Labour would gain votes so far based on the hypothetical of losing Field, Hoey, O' Mara and Woodcock. You could easily lose a few more with very little public reaction.
A lot more popular than Kate Hoey, although that is a bar nobody should really fail to clear. Be happy to see both of them and Woodcock gone. Wish them all the best of luck outside of politics though.
You may be happy that there is apparently a coordinated move in place to deselect Labour MPs who rebel over Brexit. You can forget about the 24% of Leave voters who are still prepared to vote Labour though, according to the latest YouGov, including myself. If you can't remain a Labour MP if you are in favour of Brexit, then surely the rest of us can't remain as a Labour voters either?
O'Mara and Woodcock are pro EU or at least not really Brexitity.
Skinner is pro Brexit for example and I wouldn't want him to be deselected. Speaking for myself it is for many reasons, I imagine much the same with the CLPs considering how the votes went, that Hoey couldn't get a single vote is telling. I could see a situation given the right candidate where I would be happy for a more eurosceptic MP to replace the current one, say someone replacing Woodcock (if he hadn't gone already) as an example.
The irony of the hard left demanding loyalty to the leadership is breathtaking.
But carry on chum, it helps us Blues.
I can't see replacing Hoey as being anything but a bonus for the vote in that constituency. Frank Field has a safe seat in Liverpool, if we had Satan as our candidate we would probably win it at a canter. Woodcock, who left anyway would have probably had a worse result than Frank Field in his CLP and there were actually people (or so I heard) who wanted a Labour government threatening to vote for other parties because they wouldn't vote for him. Not sure I even need to make the case for O' Mara.
Maybe Woodcock might help you, but equally it might help us, the rest I can't really see it at all.
For God's sake don't say Field has a seat in Liverpool! Messages matter.
I just quickly saw something about Merseyside and assumed the rest, the place seems to be Liverpool like in its voting habits for the purpose of my point anyway...
A lot more popular than Kate Hoey, although that is a bar nobody should really fail to clear. Be happy to see both of them and Woodcock gone. Wish them all the best of luck outside of politics though.
You may be happy that there is apparently a coordinated move in place to deselect Labour MPs who rebel over Brexit. You can forget about the 24% of Leave voters who are still prepared to vote Labour though, according to the latest YouGov, including myself. If you can't remain a Labour MP if you are in favour of Brexit, then surely the rest of us can't remain as a Labour voters either?
O'Mara and Woodcock are pro EU or at least not really Brexitity.
Skinner is pro Brexit for example and I wouldn't want him to be deselected. Speaking for myself it is for many reasons, I imagine much the same with the CLPs considering how the votes went, that Hoey couldn't get a single vote is telling. I could see a situation given the right candidate where I would be happy for a more eurosceptic MP to replace the current one, say someone replacing Woodcock (if he hadn't gone already) as an example.
The irony of the hard left demanding loyalty to the leadership is breathtaking.
But carry on chum, it helps us Blues.
I can't see replacing Hoey as being anything but a bonus for the vote in that constituency. Frank Field has a safe seat in Liverpool, if we had Satan as our candidate we would probably win it at a canter. Woodcock, who left anyway would have probably had a worse result than Frank Field in his CLP and there were actually people (or so I heard) who wanted a Labour government threatening to vote for other parties because they wouldn't vote for him. Not sure I even need to make the case for O' Mara.
Maybe Woodcock might help you, but equally it might help us, the rest I can't really see it at all.
For God's sake don't say Field has a seat in Liverpool! Messages matter.
I just quickly saw something about Merseyside and assumed the rest, the place seems to be Liverpool like in its voting habits for the purpose of my point anyway...
I can firmly assure you that Birkenhead is not, and never has been or will be in Liverpool (or Merseyside in owt but name)
Angela Rayner is a shoo-in for the next leadership providing the snobbery of the educated left does not block it. Rebecca Long-Bailey is a a poor interviewer and devoid of charisma. Emily Thornberry is extremely condensending and probably looks down on anyone who is not a member of the educated left.If she became leader there would be many more `white van` gaffs. Lisa Nandy is quite likeable but not a leadership material
Comments
Messages matter.
If you actively replace 100+ MPs it would be all over the media and would make an impression (although I think you overestimate the public attachment to them) though that doesn't seem likely to happen.
If anything I think Labour would gain votes so far based on the hypothetical of losing Field, Hoey, O' Mara and Woodcock. You could easily lose a few more with very little public reaction.
Rebecca Long-Bailey is a a poor interviewer and devoid of charisma.
Emily Thornberry is extremely condensending and probably looks down on anyone who is not a member of the educated left.If she became leader there would be many more `white van` gaffs.
Lisa Nandy is quite likeable but not a leadership material