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Looks that way....

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So why hasn't she been screaming this from the rooftops before???

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Ohhh, he's such a naughty boy!

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So why hasn't she been screaming this from the rooftops before???

I would guess she didn't want it to dominate the meeting between Barnier and Raab.

She is, in any case, only setting out the actual position as agreed by both sides - there will be no hard border in the island. They just disagree about what that means.

Gibraltar will undoubtedly be watching closely too.

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Good.

She should respond to Leo's provocations of the last few days by announcing the hiring of 1000 customs officers for the NI border.

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

ydoethur said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

I think 3) is a given. But I think she gambled on 2) without appreciating what a hold this would give the EU over her in the negotiations.

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

I think you'll find our elected representatives voted to take that step, that's how it generally works in our parliamentary democracy.

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

ydoethur said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

Have to agree, but I tend more to 3 than anything else. It is almost as if she will be wandering up to Buck House soon, to hand in the the Great Seal...

I am off to bed, anyway. But hopefully in the next few days things will calm down again and we can talk like adults.

It requires Merkel to finally sack Juncker and install someone sober vaguely competent, but it would ease everyone's worries.

Good night, and sweet dreams.

ydoethur said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

or

4) she's getting her speeches written by the Moggster!

I struggle to think of a more influential backbencher than Mogg since 1945.

DavidL said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

Is the simplest answer not that she has finally worked out that the backstop agreement was a serious mistake? Well, duh. Most of us have been saying that for months.

Let's hope...

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

This kinda covers it.

twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

joyous n civic...

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

Re Trump and Russia.

What is it that Donald Trump thinks he (and the US) can get out of Russia?

I really don't understand his motivation, beyond a love of "strong men" dictators. Russia simply isn't going to buy a lot of US product. (Fact for the day: Russia's exports are the same size as Belgium's.) I guess some help in sorting out the Middle East, maybe. But then again, Trump doesn't seem to care about that.

Perhaps getting better access to the Russian energy market for US firms? But that doesn't seem *that* likely.

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Said backbencher was Foreign Secretary at the time and it wasn't a sackable offence.

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Anyone know why satirist Godfrey Elfwick has been banned from Twitter?

GOP voters are welcome to stay behind Trump, its the non aligned voters that matter in giving the party a kicking mid term which they may well do.

The lifting of Russian national Maria Butina just as Trump was brown nosing Putin in Helsinki is more significant for the Congressional GOP than many realise.

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

If Labour wanted to prevent no deal they'd be working with moderate Tories (not Soubry et al) and cooperating to get a deal we could all live with. Preventing no deal is less important than frustrating Tories.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

Well in theory they could compromise by getting behind the government's proposed deal in order to prevent no deal, but then it might really be a bad deal not worthy supporting, and no one truly expects an opposition to do such a thing of course. It's only noteworthy as when they later claim they would have had a better plan it will be untrue (given the infamously praised 'masterly inactivity' on display)

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Most definitely. Accidental no deal has been a growing risk for some time. Although it is not quite that nobody wants it, there are people who do, and those people are numerous enough to make things difficult enough for everyone else so as to prevent it. There are still enough there who don't want no deal who could still compromise to achieve it however, so ultimately it is correct that the inability to compromise is the issue.

WhisperingOracle said:

I struggle to think of a more influential backbencher than Mogg since 1945.

Seems a fair point. Whatever one thinks of him his influence is no joke, in much the way that UKIP were no joke in terms of influence even though they had no MPs, and plenty do seem to wait for his reaction before deciding their own.

ydoethur said:

But hopefully in the next few days things will calm down again and we can talk like adults.

It requires Merkel to finally sack Juncker and install someone sober vaguely competent, but it would ease everyone's worries.

That's not happening then. We're playing the more dangerous game of brinkmanship, but outside occasional minor whispers the EU seem pretty content to either wait for us to back down, however impossible that may be politically, or take a hit on the basis we get hit worse.

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

Boris turned my whole attitude against him when he told Airbus to FO and at the same time my attitude to the ERG

Philip_Thompson said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

If Labour wanted to prevent no deal they'd be working with moderate Tories (not Soubry et al) and cooperating to get a deal we could all live with. Preventing no deal is less important than frustrating Tories.

Brexit is a Tory project ; the onus is on the Tories to locate the sources of compromise, both in parliament and in Brussels. Their direction of travel is the opposite one.

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

I think when you add in those who want no deal (which for now has significant public support over an apparently crappy deal), that consequences won't be felt by most immediately, how many react to scare tactics (be they true or not), and a general 'f*ck them' attitude when someone demands something, I think it very very probable that if it is a 'take it or leave it' from Barnier MPs might well leave it.

The EU clearly do not think we would. May's government is clearly desperate to avoid being in that position at all. But the EU have been wrong before about what we would do.

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Good.

She should respond to Leo's provocations of the last few days by announcing the hiring of 1000 customs officers for the NI border.

Given everyone pretty much in NI has dual citizenship of the U.K. and Ireland there should be no shortage of applicants - they could do the job for both countries on a job share and save Dublin some cash.

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

In simple terms, it was viable to be a member with many opt outs, but being a non member wanting to opt in is something rather more difficult.

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It.

Once again, an opinion which assumes the EU are really really stupid when we should give them more credit. This idea the EU 'don't give a damn' about what will happen a country with over 60 million, a huge economy and all the rest right on their doorstep suggests the EU are a bunch of morons.

Now, that they are not idiots mean they do give a damn about us. What they don't care to do is disadvantage their remaining members to our advantage. Which is not unreasonable, and why they haven't bent from many positions, but is not the same as not giving a damn about the UK - because while we suffer more from a bad future relationship, they still suffer a bit, and they'd surely prefer to suffer not at all, so long as they don't have to give up too much.

https://twitter.com/AspenInstitute/status/1020045807448231936

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT:

In response to @Jonathan:

“Tories should watch Yes Minister

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Just the one. If you're incompetent you have to be honest, and if you're crooked you have to be clever. See, if you're honest, then when you make a pig's breakfast of things the chaps rally round and help you out.”


The rest of the quote is even better:

Humphrey: “So the ideal is a bank that ‘s honest and competent?”

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: “Yes. Let me know if you ever find one, won’t you.”

Everyone should watch it. My favourite program of all time. As a lowly administrator I aim one day to be a less deviously minded and motivated Sir Humphrey (sometimes his heart was in the right place).

One of the many clever things about Yes Minister which made it work was that all of the major characters were likeable, albeit rather self serving.

It's why I think it superior to works like The Thick of It or Veep. Most of the time there isn't a sympathetic or likable person in the whole bunch, people are almost inhuman. The satire is more cutting as a result, but I find a lot it unmemorable since it involved cardboard cutouts, not people.

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1020048569070510082

brendan16 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Good.

She should respond to Leo's provocations of the last few days by announcing the hiring of 1000 customs officers for the NI border.

Given everyone pretty much in NI has dual citizenship of the U.K. and Ireland there should be no shortage of applicants - they could do the job for both countries on a job share and save Dublin some cash.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

As the comment was in response to a remark made to him about the fears of big business leaders over Brexit

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

Once again this there's one set of rules and can be no cherry picking or variances misapprehension.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3c/Supranational_European_Bodies-en.png

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

As the comment was in response to a remark made to him about the fears of big business leaders over Brexit

Hmmm - IIRC he said 'fuck business' not 'fuck big business'.

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Apols for re-posting this but it is an interesting viewpoint I had not considered before:
"...crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

Hmm.

In reality, everyone knowledgeable about Brexit agrees on what will really happen if there is no deal in March. Nothing will change

...Then why are so many people causing such a fuss about it? It includes many who are knowledgeable about it. And even if we assume JRM types are not, in actual fact, knowledgeable about Brexit (not a difficult proposition), they surely would know enough as to what outcomes would be remain in all but name?

Yeah, fair point. "Everybody agrees that..." is clearly not correct here.

But I think there has to be a chance that as the clock reaches midnight with no deal achieved, some compromises (even if temporary) will be required (e.g. for security, trade, flights)... Then you are quickly into how to prevent cherry-picking and that leads to the default of "let's leave everything unchanged until we can resolve things". Thus I can see how no-deal becomes RIABN.

All the talk of a 'deal' or 'no deal' is a red herring anyway, it would likely take years for a FTA to be agreed with the EU eg it took Canada 7 years, well past next March.

What we really mean is will May be able to agree a transition deal from next March and the Brexit date or not with FTA negotiations for a free trade deal then taking place during that transition period

Philip_Thompson said:

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

Once again this there's one set of rules and can be no cherry picking or variances misapprehension.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3c/Supranational_European_Bodies-en.png

That's a nice Venn diagram - and tbf makes your point well.

Tells me all things are possible if the EU agree it - trouble is they have zero incentive to agree to our requests. All the cards are in their hand.

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

I think when you add in those who want no deal (which for now has significant public support over an apparently crappy deal), that consequences won't be felt by most immediately, how many react to scare tactics (be they true or not), and a general 'f*ck them' attitude when someone demands something, I think it very very probable that if it is a 'take it or leave it' from Barnier MPs might well leave it.

Yes. ERG headbangers are gagging to jump from the cliff and remainers now think their best chance of reversing Brexit altogether is to exclude all other options apart from WTO and staying in. So both groups will oppose any withdrawal deal. And Corbyn will oppose a deal because he thinks that is the best way to achieve a Labour government. This will lead to a major political and economic crisis the outcome of which is hard to predict but a complete volte face on Brexit is quite possible.

Both the majority of Tories and Corbyn are committed to Brexit and leaving the single market, there will be no volte face unless and until someone like Umunna becomes PM

https://twitter.com/ReutersOpinion/status/1020050737404022784