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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Republican voters remain solidly behind Trump in the first post-Helsinki polls

Anybody expecting that President Trump’s widely criticised approach at the Helsinki summit with Putin would hurt him amongst his base is going to be disappointed. The first polls are now out and they show the same picture – very solid support from Republican Party voters for the Presidents handling of Russian leader, Putin

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RobD

First?

MarqueeMark

Looks that way....

OchEye

But Mueller is preparing the handcuffs for 45...

Benpointer

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

murali_s

RobD said:

First?

Damn! Beaten by my good-looking friend yet again!

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

If Andrew Mitchell were a Leaver he could squeal about plebs being thwarted by multiple plebiscites.

MarqueeMark

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So why hasn't she been screaming this from the rooftops before???

Jonathan

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

RobD

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Ohhh, he's such a naughty boy!

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So why hasn't she been screaming this from the rooftops before???

I would guess she didn't want it to dominate the meeting between Barnier and Raab.

She is, in any case, only setting out the actual position as agreed by both sides - there will be no hard border in the island. They just disagree about what that means.

Gibraltar will undoubtedly be watching closely too.

Gardenwalker

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So why hasn't she been screaming this from the rooftops before???

She has said this before. Why is this news (before or after 10pm)?

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

OchEye

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Good.

She should respond to Leo's provocations of the last few days by announcing the hiring of 1000 customs officers for the NI border.

DavidL

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

Is the simplest answer not that she has finally worked out that the backstop agreement was a serious mistake? Well, duh. Most of us have been saying that for months.

ydoethur

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

HYUFD

Trump's base will be behind him regardless. However if the Democrats are to win in November and in 2020 they will need both their own base and independents to back them and the fact 62% of independents disapproved of Trump's handling of Helsinki with SurveyMonkey and 53% said he did a bad job with CBS as well as strong Democratic disapproval of Trump's Helsinki statements will boost them in that regard.

Don't forget either while Trump's base approves of him they are much less enthusiastic about the GOP congressional leadership of Ryan and McConnell both of whom condemned Trump's Helsinki statements so are much less likely to turn out for GOP Congressional candidates in the midterms in November than for Trump when he runs for re election in 2020

Philip_Thompson

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

HYUFD

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

No, she is saying Brexit must apply to the whole UK

DavidL

ydoethur said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

I think 3) is a given. But I think she gambled on 2) without appreciating what a hold this would give the EU over her in the negotiations.

Philip_Thompson

HYUFD said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

No, she is saying Brexit must apply to the whole UK

Brexit means Brexit.

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

I think you'll find our elected representatives voted to take that step, that's how it generally works in our parliamentary democracy.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

No, she is saying Brexit must apply to the whole UK

Brexit means Brexit.

Certainly from the DUP's perspective that applies to NI too

Jonathan

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

I think you'll find our elected representatives voted to take that step, that's how it generally works in our parliamentary democracy.

Apparently, the country was told it was voting to stay in an organisation that would develop over time into a political one as well to rival the superpowers the USA and the USSR on either flank.

Does that meet the standard?

OchEye

ydoethur said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

Have to agree, but I tend more to 3 than anything else. It is almost as if she will be wandering up to Buck House soon, to hand in the the Great Seal...

DecrepitJohnL

Trump is to Republican members of congress as Theresa May is to Tory MPs. They are happy to let it be known they think their leader is neither use nor ornament, yet are strangely reluctant to move against them.

ydoethur

I am off to bed, anyway. But hopefully in the next few days things will calm down again and we can talk like adults.

It requires Merkel to finally sack Juncker and install someone sober vaguely competent, but it would ease everyone's worries.

Good night, and sweet dreams.

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So why hasn't she been screaming this from the rooftops before???

I would guess she didn't want it to dominate the meeting between Barnier and Raab.

She is, in any case, only setting out the actual position as agreed by both sides - there will be no hard border in the island. They just disagree about what that means.

Gibraltar will undoubtedly be watching closely too.

For Gibraltar (and the military base in Cyprus), it would make sense to follow the example of Büsingen or Campo di Fiore and leave them inside the EU's customs union.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

or

4) she's getting her speeches written by the Moggster!

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

I think you'll find our elected representatives voted to take that step, that's how it generally works in our parliamentary democracy.

Apparently, the country was told it was voting to stay in an organisation that would develop over time into a political one as well to rival the superpowers the USA and the USSR on either flank.

Does that meet the standard?

I genuinely have no idea what you're trying to say. But regardless, I agree (with hindsight) that it would have been better to have had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if that's what you're hinting at.

WhisperingOracle

I struggle to think of a more influential backbencher than Mogg since 1945.

Theuniondivvie

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

MarqueeMark

DavidL said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

Is the simplest answer not that she has finally worked out that the backstop agreement was a serious mistake? Well, duh. Most of us have been saying that for months.

Let's hope...

Philip_Thompson

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

RobD

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

This kinda covers it.

twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

joyous n civic...

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

I think you'll find our elected representatives voted to take that step, that's how it generally works in our parliamentary democracy.

Apparently, the country was told it was voting to stay in an organisation that would develop over time into a political one as well to rival the superpowers the USA and the USSR on either flank.

Does that meet the standard?

I genuinely have no idea what you're trying to say. But regardless, I agree (with hindsight) that it would have been better to have had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if that's what you're hinting at.

I'm talking about how 1975 the difference between the EEC and the EU was about the stage of development not the direction of travel, and I thought you were referring to the fact the decision to join in 1973 was due to a vote in Parliament.

I don't know where you're getting Lisbon from.

Nos da, a bob bendith.

WhisperingOracle

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

Philip_Thompson

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

rcs1000

Re Trump and Russia.

What is it that Donald Trump thinks he (and the US) can get out of Russia?

I really don't understand his motivation, beyond a love of "strong men" dictators. Russia simply isn't going to buy a lot of US product. (Fact for the day: Russia's exports are the same size as Belgium's.) I guess some help in sorting out the Middle East, maybe. But then again, Trump doesn't seem to care about that.

Perhaps getting better access to the Russian energy market for US firms? But that doesn't seem *that* likely.

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

To be fair, he wasn't a backbencher when he said it. He held one of the three great offices of state.

Jonathan

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Said backbencher was Foreign Secretary at the time and it wasn't a sackable offence.

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Being pedantic, we've only had one EU ref - 1975 was an EEC ref

Ah, but apparently we were told we were voting for the EU at some unsepcified future date.

(Well, I say 'we' - I mean Britain, not me personally.)

I think you'll find our elected representatives voted to take that step, that's how it generally works in our parliamentary democracy.

Apparently, the country was told it was voting to stay in an organisation that would develop over time into a political one as well to rival the superpowers the USA and the USSR on either flank.

Does that meet the standard?

I genuinely have no idea what you're trying to say. But regardless, I agree (with hindsight) that it would have been better to have had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if that's what you're hinting at.

I'm talking about how 1975 the difference between the EEC and the EU was about the stage of development not the direction of travel, and I thought you were referring to the fact the decision to join in 1973 was due to a vote in Parliament.

I don't know where you're getting Lisbon from.

Nos da, a bob bendith.

Nos da, a bob bendith.
Google translate tells me that's "Give us blessings" is that right?

Philip_Thompson

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

+1

AndyJS

Anyone know why satirist Godfrey Elfwick has been banned from Twitter?

Theuniondivvie

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

This kinda covers it.

twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

joyous n civic...

Yeah.

If only he could civilize himself and take up that traitorous saboteur schtick.

Y0kel

GOP voters are welcome to stay behind Trump, its the non aligned voters that matter in giving the party a kicking mid term which they may well do.

The lifting of Russian national Maria Butina just as Trump was brown nosing Putin in Helsinki is more significant for the Congressional GOP than many realise.

Philip_Thompson

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Said backbencher was Foreign Secretary at the time and it wasn't a sackable offence.

Said Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor are still in their positions.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

OchEye

HYUFD said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

No, she is saying Brexit must apply to the whole UK

It either it does or it doesn't.There is no half way in being pregnant, you start off being f**ked and after a time a baby arrives which continues to f**k you up for the rest of your life. Welcome to the real world of political life!

Philip_Thompson

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

If Labour wanted to prevent no deal they'd be working with moderate Tories (not Soubry et al) and cooperating to get a deal we could all live with. Preventing no deal is less important than frustrating Tories.

Toms

When I first came across "misanthropy" our English teacher emphasised that although one might not like "humanity" he/she might have good friends. I was young and innocent then. Now I see where he was coming from.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

HYUFD

DecrepitJohnL said:

Trump is to Republican members of congress as Theresa May is to Tory MPs. They are happy to let it be known they think their leader is neither use nor ornament, yet are strangely reluctant to move against them.

The difference is Trump has a higher approval rating than the GOP Congress and is more in tune with the GOP base while Boris and Mogg now have a higher approval than May in the latest YouGov and are more in touch with the Tory base

kle4

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

Well in theory they could compromise by getting behind the government's proposed deal in order to prevent no deal, but then it might really be a bad deal not worthy supporting, and no one truly expects an opposition to do such a thing of course. It's only noteworthy as when they later claim they would have had a better plan it will be untrue (given the infamously praised 'masterly inactivity' on display)

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Most definitely. Accidental no deal has been a growing risk for some time. Although it is not quite that nobody wants it, there are people who do, and those people are numerous enough to make things difficult enough for everyone else so as to prevent it. There are still enough there who don't want no deal who could still compromise to achieve it however, so ultimately it is correct that the inability to compromise is the issue.

WhisperingOracle said:

I struggle to think of a more influential backbencher than Mogg since 1945.

Seems a fair point. Whatever one thinks of him his influence is no joke, in much the way that UKIP were no joke in terms of influence even though they had no MPs, and plenty do seem to wait for his reaction before deciding their own.

ydoethur said:

But hopefully in the next few days things will calm down again and we can talk like adults.

It requires Merkel to finally sack Juncker and install someone sober vaguely competent, but it would ease everyone's worries.

That's not happening then. We're playing the more dangerous game of brinkmanship, but outside occasional minor whispers the EU seem pretty content to either wait for us to back down, however impossible that may be politically, or take a hit on the basis we get hit worse.

kle4

ydoethur said:

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

There are three possibilities:

1) she hasn't kicked up a fuss because she intended to fail to impose the border (which she can, under the old CTA, without upsetting other arrangements) and thereby effectively keeps Britain in the EU customs union while being in theory free of it;

2) she believed here would be a free trade deal and therefore this wouldn't matter, and is getting nervous that this looks less likely;

3) she doesn't have a fucking clue what she's doing.

For the record I think it's a mixture of 1 and 3.

2), because 3).

Foxy

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Cyclefree

FPT:

In response to @Jonathan:

“Tories should watch Yes Minister

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Just the one. If you're incompetent you have to be honest, and if you're crooked you have to be clever. See, if you're honest, then when you make a pig's breakfast of things the chaps rally round and help you out.”


The rest of the quote is even better:

Humphrey: “So the ideal is a bank that ‘s honest and competent?”

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: “Yes. Let me know if you ever find one, won’t you.”

Big_G_NorthWales

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

Boris turned my whole attitude against him when he told Airbus to FO and at the same time my attitude to the ERG

kle4

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Admittedly I am a layman, and I accept the UK has always had a bit much of a Cake and eat it approach, but on the NI issue the EU really has seemed more unreasonable to me, and if memory serves it's one thing that even arch remainers like Grieve are able to agree with the government on, which says something.

WhisperingOracle

Philip_Thompson said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

If Labour wanted to prevent no deal they'd be working with moderate Tories (not Soubry et al) and cooperating to get a deal we could all live with. Preventing no deal is less important than frustrating Tories.

Brexit is a Tory project ; the onus is on the Tories to locate the sources of compromise, both in parliament and in Brussels. Their direction of travel is the opposite one.

kle4

Cyclefree said:

FPT:

In response to @Jonathan:

“Tories should watch Yes Minister

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Just the one. If you're incompetent you have to be honest, and if you're crooked you have to be clever. See, if you're honest, then when you make a pig's breakfast of things the chaps rally round and help you out.”


The rest of the quote is even better:

Humphrey: “So the ideal is a bank that ‘s honest and competent?”

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: “Yes. Let me know if you ever find one, won’t you.”

Everyone should watch it. My favourite program of all time. As a lowly administrator I aim one day to be a less deviously minded and motivated Sir Humphrey (sometimes his heart was in the right place).

anothernick

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

kle4

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

Yes. Those people most specifically being the Tory party. Labour remain cynical bystanders.

If Labour wanted to prevent no deal they'd be working with moderate Tories (not Soubry et al) and cooperating to get a deal we could all live with. Preventing no deal is less important than frustrating Tories.

Brexit is a Tory project ; the onus is on the Tories to locate the sources of compromise, both in parliament and in Brussels. Their direction of travel is the opposite one.

To a degree. They are in government, however thinly, so it is ultimately on them to deliver even though to say Brexit is a Tory project is demonstrably untrue (given all the Lab voters and even some SNP and LD voters who backed some kind of leaving), but May at least is closer to a compromise position officially than many in her own party want. The door is half ajar. But though I'd like some cross party cooperation to avoid a no deal, one cannot realistically expect Labour to kick open the door the rest of the way, especially when after seemingly committing to a position May changed it again.

OchEye

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

Benpointer

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Apols for re-posting this but it is an interesting viewpoint I had not considered before:
"...crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

kle4

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

I think when you add in those who want no deal (which for now has significant public support over an apparently crappy deal), that consequences won't be felt by most immediately, how many react to scare tactics (be they true or not), and a general 'f*ck them' attitude when someone demands something, I think it very very probable that if it is a 'take it or leave it' from Barnier MPs might well leave it.

The EU clearly do not think we would. May's government is clearly desperate to avoid being in that position at all. But the EU have been wrong before about what we would do.

Foxy

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT:

In response to @Jonathan:

“Tories should watch Yes Minister

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Just the one. If you're incompetent you have to be honest, and if you're crooked you have to be clever. See, if you're honest, then when you make a pig's breakfast of things the chaps rally round and help you out.”


The rest of the quote is even better:

Humphrey: “So the ideal is a bank that ‘s honest and competent?”

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: “Yes. Let me know if you ever find one, won’t you.”

Everyone should watch it. My favourite program of all time. As a lowly administrator I aim one day to be a less deviously minded and motivated Sir Humphrey (sometimes his heart was in the right place).

One of the many clever things about Yes Minister which made it work was that all of the major characters were likeable, albeit rather self serving.

It does rather speak for another era though. We have gone through the looking glass now.

brendan16

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Good.

She should respond to Leo's provocations of the last few days by announcing the hiring of 1000 customs officers for the NI border.

Given everyone pretty much in NI has dual citizenship of the U.K. and Ireland there should be no shortage of applicants - they could do the job for both countries on a job share and save Dublin some cash.

kle4

Benpointer said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Apols for re-posting this but it is an interesting viewpoint I had not considered before:
"...crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

Hmm.

In reality, everyone knowledgeable about Brexit agrees on what will really happen if there is no deal in March. Nothing will change

...Then why are so many people causing such a fuss about it? It includes many who are knowledgeable about it. And even if we assume JRM types are not, in actual fact, knowledgeable about Brexit (not a difficult proposition), they surely would know enough as to what outcomes would be remain in all but name?

Foxy

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

In simple terms, it was viable to be a member with many opt outs, but being a non member wanting to opt in is something rather more difficult.

AndyJS

Things are looking better for the Democrats than they were a few weeks ago:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

kle4

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It.

Once again, an opinion which assumes the EU are really really stupid when we should give them more credit. This idea the EU 'don't give a damn' about what will happen a country with over 60 million, a huge economy and all the rest right on their doorstep suggests the EU are a bunch of morons.

Now, that they are not idiots mean they do give a damn about us. What they don't care to do is disadvantage their remaining members to our advantage. Which is not unreasonable, and why they haven't bent from many positions, but is not the same as not giving a damn about the UK - because while we suffer more from a bad future relationship, they still suffer a bit, and they'd surely prefer to suffer not at all, so long as they don't have to give up too much.

kle4

Foxy said:

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

In simple terms, it was viable to be a member with many opt outs, but being a non member wanting to opt in is something rather more difficult.

Difficult, but not impossible, at least in theory. Impossible at this stage it would seem, however.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/AspenInstitute/status/1020045807448231936

WhisperingOracle

Benpointer said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Apols for re-posting this but it is an interesting viewpoint I had not considered before:
"...crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

An extremely odd article, that doesn't offer any basis in actual evidence for its assertions, but seems to reside in Simon Jenkins' confidence of establishment pragmatism always winning the day. It's disconnected from developments in Brussels, just for a start.

kle4

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

FPT:

In response to @Jonathan:

“Tories should watch Yes Minister

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: Just the one. If you're incompetent you have to be honest, and if you're crooked you have to be clever. See, if you're honest, then when you make a pig's breakfast of things the chaps rally round and help you out.”


The rest of the quote is even better:

Humphrey: “So the ideal is a bank that ‘s honest and competent?”

Sir Desmond Glazebrook: “Yes. Let me know if you ever find one, won’t you.”

Everyone should watch it. My favourite program of all time. As a lowly administrator I aim one day to be a less deviously minded and motivated Sir Humphrey (sometimes his heart was in the right place).

One of the many clever things about Yes Minister which made it work was that all of the major characters were likeable, albeit rather self serving.

It's why I think it superior to works like The Thick of It or Veep. Most of the time there isn't a sympathetic or likable person in the whole bunch, people are almost inhuman. The satire is more cutting as a result, but I find a lot it unmemorable since it involved cardboard cutouts, not people.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Apols for re-posting this but it is an interesting viewpoint I had not considered before:
"...crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

Hmm.

In reality, everyone knowledgeable about Brexit agrees on what will really happen if there is no deal in March. Nothing will change

...Then why are so many people causing such a fuss about it? It includes many who are knowledgeable about it. And even if we assume JRM types are not, in actual fact, knowledgeable about Brexit (not a difficult proposition), they surely would know enough as to what outcomes would be remain in all but name?

Yeah, fair point. "Everybody agrees that..." is clearly not correct here.

But I think there has to be a chance that as the clock reaches midnight with no deal achieved, some compromises (even if temporary) will be required (e.g. for security, trade, flights)... Then you are quickly into how to prevent cherry-picking and that leads to the default of "let's leave everything unchanged until we can resolve things". Thus I can see how no-deal becomes RIABN.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1020048569070510082

MJW

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Apols for re-posting this but it is an interesting viewpoint I had not considered before:
"...crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

Hmm.

In reality, everyone knowledgeable about Brexit agrees on what will really happen if there is no deal in March. Nothing will change

...Then why are so many people causing such a fuss about it? It includes many who are knowledgeable about it. And even if we assume JRM types are not, in actual fact, knowledgeable about Brexit (not a difficult proposition), they surely would know enough as to what outcomes would be remain in all but name?

If you go through life believing Simon Jenkins is wrong about everything, you won't ever stray from the path of truth. He has turned being wrong into performance art.

Philip_Thompson

brendan16 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

Good.

She should respond to Leo's provocations of the last few days by announcing the hiring of 1000 customs officers for the NI border.

Given everyone pretty much in NI has dual citizenship of the U.K. and Ireland there should be no shortage of applicants - they could do the job for both countries on a job share and save Dublin some cash.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020056986874974210

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

As the comment was in response to a remark made to him about the fears of big business leaders over Brexit

Charles

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

So a lawyer is happy to share information that he knows was provided to him in breach of a confidentiality obligation

Interesting

Philip_Thompson

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

Once again this there's one set of rules and can be no cherry picking or variances misapprehension.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3c/Supranational_European_Bodies-en.png

Charles

OchEye said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1020034990569066497

I have read it 3 times, and I really have no idea what she is waffling about. She is either forcing NI to remain in the EU which is effectively disenfranchising the DUP and committing to the break up of NI from the UK or she is rescinding A50. Either way is political suicide.

Or she’s rejecting the EU’s wording on the backstop

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

As the comment was in response to a remark made to him about the fears of big business leaders over Brexit

Hmmm - IIRC he said 'fuck business' not 'fuck big business'.

WhisperingOracle

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020056986874974210

Interesting. If Theresa wanted to turn up the pressure towards the eventual goal of a referendum on no-deal, that would be almost the perfect way to cumulatively help that.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

Correct. IMO we will get very, very close to the cliff edge but there's a 50/50 chance that the prospect of going over it will lead to a last minute crisis and withdrawal (perhaps presented as indefinite postponement) of A50,

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

Apols for re-posting this but it is an interesting viewpoint I had not considered before:
"...crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march

Hmm.

In reality, everyone knowledgeable about Brexit agrees on what will really happen if there is no deal in March. Nothing will change

...Then why are so many people causing such a fuss about it? It includes many who are knowledgeable about it. And even if we assume JRM types are not, in actual fact, knowledgeable about Brexit (not a difficult proposition), they surely would know enough as to what outcomes would be remain in all but name?

Yeah, fair point. "Everybody agrees that..." is clearly not correct here.

But I think there has to be a chance that as the clock reaches midnight with no deal achieved, some compromises (even if temporary) will be required (e.g. for security, trade, flights)... Then you are quickly into how to prevent cherry-picking and that leads to the default of "let's leave everything unchanged until we can resolve things". Thus I can see how no-deal becomes RIABN.

All the talk of a 'deal' or 'no deal' is a red herring anyway, it would likely take years for a FTA to be agreed with the EU eg it took Canada 7 years, well past next March.

What we really mean is will May be able to agree a transition deal from next March and the Brexit date or not with FTA negotiations for a free trade deal then taking place during that transition period

anothernick

kle4 said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

I think when you add in those who want no deal (which for now has significant public support over an apparently crappy deal), that consequences won't be felt by most immediately, how many react to scare tactics (be they true or not), and a general 'f*ck them' attitude when someone demands something, I think it very very probable that if it is a 'take it or leave it' from Barnier MPs might well leave it.

Yes. ERG headbangers are gagging to jump from the cliff and remainers now think their best chance of reversing Brexit altogether is to exclude all other options apart from WTO and staying in. So both groups will oppose any withdrawal deal. And Corbyn will oppose a deal because he thinks that is the best way to achieve a Labour government. This will lead to a major political and economic crisis the outcome of which is hard to predict but a complete volte face on Brexit is quite possible.

Benpointer

Philip_Thompson said:

OchEye said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

This kinda covers it.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1020045338097405952

Because the UK signed up to a UK backstop with a specific guarantee that NI wouldn't be treated differently unless NI wanted to be in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU is trying to rip up the GFA by dividing East and West trade against both last December's agreement and the Good Friday Agreement.

Once again the miscomprehension, the EU don't really give a damn about the UK. It was the UK who voted to leave, it was the UK who over many years had become seriously semi detached from the organisation, and it is now after we decided to leave, we are demanding concessions that they are not willing to give us as it breaks the rules that the others have agreed to, work with and like.

Once again this there's one set of rules and can be no cherry picking or variances misapprehension.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3c/Supranational_European_Bodies-en.png

That's a nice Venn diagram - and tbf makes your point well.

Tells me all things are possible if the EU agree it - trouble is they have zero incentive to agree to our requests. All the cards are in their hand.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

Second - like the next EU ref

Edit - damn! Even I wouldn't argue for a 3rd 4th EU ref

It's worth pointing out another referendum would be the third. 1975, 2016, 2019(?).

But a fourth would be getting silly.

Never underestimate the determination of Remainers to thwart democracy by, er, democray!

Let's have referendums on any mad old thing. If Democracy is the only thing that counts, then let's vote for some really genuinely good stuff. Not just Brexit, or free owls. I want a spaceship. If Democracy is what counts, we can all have one. Easy. No Problem. Spaceships for all.

Vote Labour.

The ideological - fuck business - right are the current market leaders in fantasy politics.

One Tory backbencher having said fuck business doesn't trump the lifetime of fantasy politics the Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor have mastered.

Boris wasn't referring to most businesses anyway who are small businesses and much more pro Leave, he was referring to big business which is still anti Brexit on the whole and its endless prophecies of doom about how bad Brexit will be

How do you know?

As the comment was in response to a remark made to him about the fears of big business leaders over Brexit

Hmmm - IIRC he said 'fuck business' not 'fuck big business'.

It NOT small businesses who have been bemoaning Brexit day in day out since the referendum but big business leaders

HYUFD

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

A no deal Brexit is starting to feel like the build up to WWI. It's not that people want it, but rather more that people aren't willing to compromise to prevent it.

There is no Brexit that commands widespread support, but in reality the choice is one of three:

1) WTO Brexit

2) Withdrawal of A50

3) Whatever Barnier proposes, take it or leave it.

Brexiteers can rearrange cakes and customs as much as they like, but it ain't on offer. They might as well order the Duck ala Orange at the McDonalds drive in.

1) is of course the default, so always a likely outcome.

I think it unlikely we will accept Barnier's deal.

I think when you add in those who want no deal (which for now has significant public support over an apparently crappy deal), that consequences won't be felt by most immediately, how many react to scare tactics (be they true or not), and a general 'f*ck them' attitude when someone demands something, I think it very very probable that if it is a 'take it or leave it' from Barnier MPs might well leave it.

Yes. ERG headbangers are gagging to jump from the cliff and remainers now think their best chance of reversing Brexit altogether is to exclude all other options apart from WTO and staying in. So both groups will oppose any withdrawal deal. And Corbyn will oppose a deal because he thinks that is the best way to achieve a Labour government. This will lead to a major political and economic crisis the outcome of which is hard to predict but a complete volte face on Brexit is quite possible.

Both the majority of Tories and Corbyn are committed to Brexit and leaving the single market, there will be no volte face unless and until someone like Umunna becomes PM

AndyJS

Newsnight:

Tory minister describes his own government as "rotten".

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/ReutersOpinion/status/1020050737404022784