politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Tr
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And the weather has been ideal for spotting the socks & sandals brigade.Danny565 said:It's always so reassuring that, in these times of intense divisions, we can still all unite to laugh at the Lib Dems.
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I can't believe I am going to say this.
I am impressed by Liam Fox. He is a real grown up. Rare these days.0 -
I think her "plan", as far as there is one, is that she'll carry on trying to negotiate the "Chequers Deal" and will hope MPs will be persuaded to repeal yesterday's amendments when it's time to ratify the deal.Richard_Nabavi said:I think I've sussed Theresa May's cunning plan. She'll accept ALL amendments. Since one lot of amendments directly contradicts the other lot, she can always claim that she's followed the will of parliament, whatever she does.
Admittedly this is a novel development in constitutional practice, as well as bonkers, but, hey, muddling through is how we do things in the UK.
It's not very good long-term thinking, of course, but I guess she feels she doesn't have the luxury of long-term thinking right now - as someone said yesterday, she's like a player in one of those video games where your only aim is to stay alive through to the end of each level. Any problems that you've created in the meantime will have to be solved later.0 -
Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.MJW said:
Layla Moran may be a good bet if things move quickly. Swinson gave birth two weeks ago. Plus, she has coalition connections - which will be used as the Corbynistas key attack line, and if the Momentum machine is good at one thing it's flinging mud at left-leaning opponents with any hint of apostasy in their past. Moran could run as a candidate aiming to give the party a fresh start as insurgents on behalf of a liberal Britain cowed by extremists in both of the major parties.Freggles said:
What is Vince doing anyway.Pulpstar said:Elon had a bad day on twitter on sunday,
France rioted monday
Not looking great for Vince & Tim Farron on tuesday
It's time for him to hand over to Jo Swinson, then when the Tories kick out their second female leader in favour of a right wing older man, she can have a USP.
Also, optics side, because he's doing a poor job
She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.
She's an excellent MP and extremely bright, with a real knack for communication and connecting with people, which is indeed exactly what the Lib Dems need, but it's way too soon for her.
If Cable goes (he won't) and Jo Swinson's not yet in a position to go for it, I reckon we'd see a "caretaker" leadership from Ed Davey - not openly stated as such, but recognised implicitly.0 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."0 -
And now he can't even impersonate one.justin124 said:
He was pretty good as acting leader a decade earlier.Sean_F said:
I thought Cable would be quite a good leader.Cyclefree said:
The latter. They have the wrong leader. I quite liked Farron but the Lib Dems showed themselves to be rather illiberal in the way they treated him.grabcocque said:It's always slightly jarring when something happens that reminds you Vince Cable and the Lib Dems still exist.
I do wonder if complete and total invisibility and political irrelevance is part of a strategy, or the party is simply evaporating.
They have lost their confidence and mojo and Cable is not the man to revive it.
Incidentally, if Corbyn becomes PM while Trump is President we will be faced with the spectacle of two leaders who dismiss the views and expertise of their intelligence agencies and who may well be both mistrusted and (possibly) investigated by those same agencies.
Truly, we are blessed to live in interesting times.0 -
When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10191654265075425330 -
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
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All good points, but maybe the Libs need to roll the dice this time?Andy_Cooke said:
Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.MJW said:
Layla Moran may be a good bet if things move quickly. Swinson gave birth two weeks ago. Plus, she has coalition connections - which will be used as the Corbynistas key attack line, and if the Momentum machine is good at one thing it's flinging mud at left-leaning opponents with any hint of apostasy in their past. Moran could run as a candidate aiming to give the party a fresh start as insurgents on behalf of a liberal Britain cowed by extremists in both of the major parties.Freggles said:
What is Vince doing anyway.Pulpstar said:Elon had a bad day on twitter on sunday,
France rioted monday
Not looking great for Vince & Tim Farron on tuesday
It's time for him to hand over to Jo Swinson, then when the Tories kick out their second female leader in favour of a right wing older man, she can have a USP.
Also, optics side, because he's doing a poor job
She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.
She's an excellent MP and extremely bright, with a real knack for communication and connecting with people, which is indeed exactly what the Lib Dems need, but it's way too soon for her.
If Cable goes (he won't) and Jo Swinson's not yet in a position to go for it, I reckon we'd see a "caretaker" leadership from Ed Davey - not openly stated as such, but recognised implicitly.0 -
Bit early in the day to be hallucinating surely?Jonathan said:I can't believe I am going to say this.
I am impressed by Liam Fox. He is a real grown up. Rare these days.
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A female Lib Dem leader would help wipe the stain of sexual harassment and abuse of male power within the party.Jo Swinson is evens favourite and Layla Moran has been backed down to 3-1 from 50-1 2nd favourite.This is serious money-none of mine and usually with the Lib Dems money talks.Could it be a Smithson-inspired coup?0
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Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."0 -
Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
"Doublespeak
William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "
https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak0 -
I he Lib Dems market is very very thin compared to the other twovolcanopete said:A female Lib Dem leader would help wipe the stain of sexual harassment and abuse of male power within the party.Jo Swinson is evens favourite and Layla Moran has been backed down to 3-1 from 50-1 2nd favourite.This is serious money-none of mine and usually with the Lib Dems money talks.Could it be a Smithson-inspired coup?
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People often resort to euphemisms to make themselves feel easier about what they're going.OchEye said:Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
"Doublespeak
William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "
https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak
"Special treatment", "Resettlement" , "enhanced interrogation" "collateral damage."0 -
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
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@DecrepitJohnL
I had a Hammond organ once, although I haven't got it any more.
I agree Morgan is an organ, but I assure you I have no desire to play with her!!
(I take it also it's Stephen not Phil?)
Right, back to the important business. I'm at Cheltenham and a young all-rounder called Hammond (ironically) has just scored a 50. Brexit taking us back to the 1930s and making us look like Wallys (sic).0 -
So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."0 -
I think it's saying you can think what you want, but the evidence says it doesn't make any difference. It's also possible what you might be think about is explicit bias.grabcocque said:
I think when a white police officer shoots an unarmed black child, and then a jury of white people acquit the officer of murder, there's nothing _implicit_ going on at all.Indigo1 said:Apropos a discussion here a couple weeks ago on the merits of 'implicit bias training'
https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/8717808742825205780 -
Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)0 -
"Glasgow Kiss", "Strong and Stable".Sean_F said:
People often resort to euphemisms to make themselves feel easier about what they're going.OchEye said:Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
"Doublespeak
William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "
https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak
"Special treatment", "Resettlement" , "enhanced interrogation" "collateral damage."0 -
Give it time.SandyRentool said:
Just imagine that here:AndyJS said:'Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
16m16 minutes ago
Italy, SWG poll:
LEGA-ENF: 30% (-1)
M5S-EFDD: 30% (+1)
PD-S&D: 18%
FI-EPP: 8%
FdI-*: 4%
LeU-S&D: 3% (+1)
PaP-LEFT: 2%
+E-ALDE: 2%
Field work: 11/07/18 – 16/07/18
Sample size: 1,500"
UKIP 30%
Monster Raving Loony 30%
Labour 18%
Conservatives 8%0 -
Time to call time! Even the normally clear thinking Jonathan has lost it. If Fox is 'a grown up' Hartlepool's a world heritage centre.
We're in Dominic Cummings car hurtling towards the cliff with no brakes and no one at the wheel. He got it spot on. Just the wrong way round
We need a financial crisis of such enormity that people start queuing to take their money out of the banks like the halcyon days of 2008. Nothing else will convince the nomads of the east coast that they got it badly wrong......
Newsflash......the free market that we've just left is now 650 million people....free trade with japan...4 years in the planning....must have been arrangd before liam grew up........
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Yup , a good metaphor for how Brexit is going at the moment.ydoethur said:
So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."0 -
Calling it implicit bias helps to sidestep having to tell people that they are bad people. This probably makes it easier to convince people to change, as they will then be less defensive.grabcocque said:
I think when a white police officer shoots an unarmed black child, and then a jury of white people acquit the officer of murder, there's nothing _implicit_ going on at all.Indigo1 said:Apropos a discussion here a couple weeks ago on the merits of 'implicit bias training'
https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/871780874282520578
If the training simply addresses bias, but only calls it implicit bias, then it might still work - but that would have to be tested separately.0 -
Tom Watson, among 15 or 16 others, did not bother turning up.rkrkrk said:
Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
We’re these votes important or not? It appears senior Labour and Lib Dem people think not.0 -
Cable's absence proves he is the midwife of a hard Tory brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bit of a leep to blame them for a hard Brexit when 3 labour mps voted with the governmentvolcanopete said:Vince Cable and Tim Farron were absent from last night's close vote and they are to blame for Tory hard-Brexit.Where were these fearless remoaners who had previously criticised Labour for failure to oppose?
The Lib Dems are yellow to the core #Cablemustgo0 -
Didn't realise that. Then yes - equally bad from Labour.Gardenwalker said:
Tom Watson, among 15 or 16 others, did not bother turning up.rkrkrk said:
Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
We’re these votes important or not? It appears senior Labour and Lib Dem people think not.0 -
As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."ydoethur said:
So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."0 -
It suggests either they expect the EU to say 'No,' or they are stupid.Gardenwalker said:
Tom Watson, among 15 or 16 others, did not bother turning up.rkrkrk said:
Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
We’re these votes important or not? It appears senior Labour and Lib Dem people think not.
As Watson is involved, could be either.0 -
He's made it a hard one for all of us.Sean_F said:
As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."ydoethur said:
So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
Ah, my coat...0 -
This would be big news on any other day, but likely to pass under the radar right now. The academy chickens are coming home to roost. https://schoolsweek.co.uk/embattled-bright-tribe-academy-trust-to-close/0
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Party leaders tend to get a bit of boost in their own constituencies, don't they? I wouldn't have thought the higher profile would do her any harm, especially when it comes to squeezing the Lab vote there.Andy_Cooke said:
Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.0 -
It must have been a very high Cable stayed bridge, of the sort that flew over most people's heads!david_herdson said:
A lot of water flowed under the bridge between 2007 and 2017 but Cable stayed.justin124 said:
He was pretty good as acting leader a decade earlier.Sean_F said:
I thought Cable would be quite a good leader.Cyclefree said:
The latter. They have the wrong leader. I quite liked Farron but the Lib Dems showed themselves to be rather illiberal in the way they treated him.grabcocque said:It's always slightly jarring when something happens that reminds you Vince Cable and the Lib Dems still exist.
I do wonder if complete and total invisibility and political irrelevance is part of a strategy, or the party is simply evaporating.
They have lost their confidence and mojo and Cable is not the man to revive it.
Incidentally, if Corbyn becomes PM while Trump is President we will be faced with the spectacle of two leaders who dismiss the views and expertise of their intelligence agencies and who may well be both mistrusted and (possibly) investigated by those same agencies.
Truly, we are blessed to live in interesting times.0 -
(Somewhere, Tim Farron is twitching and he doesn't know why...)edmundintokyo said:
Party leaders tend to get a bit of boost in their own constituencies, don't they? I wouldn't have thought the higher profile would do her any harm, especially when it comes to squeezing the Lab vote there.Andy_Cooke said:
Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.0 -
No tears will be shed for it, I think. In fact, I think there would be no tears shed if every academy chain was wound up. Less competent, less accountable, less knowledgeable and less well-meaning versions of LEAs - which is like saying somebody is more dishonest than Goebbels.El_Capitano said:This would be big news on any other day, but likely to pass under the radar right now. The academy chickens are coming home to roost. https://schoolsweek.co.uk/embattled-bright-tribe-academy-trust-to-close/
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"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say0 -
Barring a national Lib Dem collapse, she's a shoo-in in OxWAb next time. Very strong local recognition, energetic activists, and the Tories in Oxfordshire are on the retreat overall (some very entertaining ructions in Cameron's former West Oxfordshire stronghold in recent months).edmundintokyo said:
Party leaders tend to get a bit of boost in their own constituencies, don't they? I wouldn't have thought the higher profile would do her any harm, especially when it comes to squeezing the Lab vote there.Andy_Cooke said:
Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.
The biggest danger to her majority is if the party nationally falls back... and, I'm afraid to say, that's more likely if either Vince Cable or Jo Swinson is leader.0 -
Not on the latest Yougov which has 40% of all voters and 64% of Tories thinking May's Chequers Deal too soft a deal with the EU, just 12% of voters think the Chequers Deal is still too hard a Brexit and 13% think it is about rightlogical_song said:
You speak as though 'hard Brexiteers' are a larger minority than 'soft Brexiteers'. I suspect that Remainers plus soft Brexiteers would form a majority that the Tories could win, if they tried!HYUFD said:
In which case the Trump base would tefuse to turn out in 2020 or go third party thus handing the election to Sanders or Warren.david_herdson said:
Oh, that is brilliant. You're absolutely right: there's nothing in the constitution preventing a president driven from office from running again, or from winning and resuming the position.edmundintokyo said:
PS Don't forget to consider the weirdly-possible edge case of "he gets impeached or 25th-amendment-ed and driven out of office, but still wins the 2020 GOP nomination".
Correction Yes, there is something in the constitution that could prevent it but it isn't necessarily invoked upon a convicted impeachment and requires a second vote.
That said, I think if the GOP were willing to go as far as to convict Trump, they'd make damn sure he couldn't run again.
The Tories have the same problem if hard Brexiteers stay at home or vote UKIP thus handing the next general election to Corbyn
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/12/conservatives-are-suffering-events-following-chequ/0 -
There are occasional MATs which are more competent and better resourced than the local LA - Mrs Capitano is head at one such school. But few and far between, I agree.ydoethur said:
No tears will be shed for it, I think. In fact, I think there would be no tears shed if every academy chain was wound up. Less competent, less accountable, less knowledgeable and less well-meaning versions of LEAs - which is like saying somebody is more dishonest than Goebbels.El_Capitano said:This would be big news on any other day, but likely to pass under the radar right now. The academy chickens are coming home to roost. https://schoolsweek.co.uk/embattled-bright-tribe-academy-trust-to-close/
0 -
I have never heard or seen Layla Moran speak.
However if she can be the voice of:
- “Fucked” business
- the Union
- Anti-Putinism
- Those with most to lose from Brexit (young people or more broadly speaking anyone under 65)
Then they should make the change immediately.
There’s no time to fanny about.0 -
To be fair , many did not.Sean_F said:
As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."ydoethur said:
So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
Does The Liberal Party still exist ?0 -
Just about. They have 9 councillors.Yorkcity said:
To be fair , many did not.Sean_F said:
As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."ydoethur said:
So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
Does The Liberal Party still exist ?0 -
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say0 -
This is fantastic. I'm a Tory, a working class oik, but i'm loving the absolute evisceration of the cosy little setup. The mask has so slipped its incredible to watch. I dont know if Trump will ever actually 'Drain the swamp', but Brexit is well and truly draining it here.TGOHF said:When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019165426507542533
A joy to observe. Shame we have to leave the EU for it all to happen though.0 -
Are you suggesting something about their non-attendance? They need to be paired with someone from the other side.Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."0 -
"There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it."archer101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say
That doesn't sound like CETA - that actually is the EEA. There's no other honest way to read that sentence.0 -
Gardenwalker said:
I have never heard or seen Layla Moran speak.
However if she can be the voice of:
- “Fucked” business
- the Union
- Anti-Putinism
- Those with most to lose from Brexit (young people or more broadly speaking anyone under 65)
Then they should make the change immediately.
There’s no time to fanny about.
0 -
Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.
- Changing the electoral system
- Changing the flag
In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.
For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.
We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.
I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.
For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.0 -
Actually, you need to be paired for any kind of sex or else it does not work....FrankBooth said:
Are you suggesting something about their non-attendance? They need to be paired with someone from the other side.Sean_F said:Gay sex is more important.
0 -
Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefactsarcher101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say0 -
The Scottish vote was pretty much inevitable.Gardenwalker said:Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.
- Changing the electoral system
- Changing the flag
In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.
For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.
We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.
I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.
For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.0 -
Leadsom should get some flak for proposing an even longer holiday for MPs0
-
I'm perplexed by Gardenwalker's insistence on treating it as equivalent to the Brexit referendum.Sean_F said:
The Scottish vote was pretty much inevitable.Gardenwalker said:Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.
- Changing the electoral system
- Changing the flag
In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.
For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.
We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.
I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.
For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.0 -
Absolutely. Most of the turmoil we've had since the referendum was the fault of Cameron for not setting it up in such a way for us to vote on something specific.Gardenwalker said:Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.
- Changing the electoral system
- Changing the flag
In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.
For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.
We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.
I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.
For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.0 -
SNP call for Cabinet Ministers who were involved with Vote Leave to be forced to stand down.0
-
Well the facts are that Vote Leave were talking about a new trade deal for the UK, based on free trade and friendly co-operation. Which is a CETA type FTA deal, not membership of the EEA. And since the UK is between Iceland and Russia, not sure what your point it assuming you even have one.Freggles said:
Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefactsarcher101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say0 -
Brexit is bad for small businesses and the Tories are now an anti-business party. But I am a bit suspicious of this tweet.Bromptonaut said:What’s all this about Brexit only being a problem for large businesses?
Tory Party shitting on its natural support.
https://twitter.com/mightbnormal/status/1018976906996322304?s=21
I can't see why a small manufacturing business would throw the towel in right now. We still don't know the regulatory regime we'll be under from next spring, but given we still might have a soft Brexit or even not leave altogether it doesn't seem like a good time to give in.
(Planning future investment is quite a different question of course.)0 -
Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.0
-
Remain and its campaigns spent £28m including the £9m tax payer funded leaflet Cameron sent to all households - £19m excluding that - and Leave spent £13.5 milion.notme said:
This is fantastic. I'm a Tory, a working class oik, but i'm loving the absolute evisceration of the cosy little setup. The mask has so slipped its incredible to watch. I dont know if Trump will ever actually 'Drain the swamp', but Brexit is well and truly draining it here.TGOHF said:When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019165426507542533
A joy to observe. Shame we have to leave the EU for it all to happen though.
The amount involved in the EC investigation re Beleave is barely 10 per cent of the amount by which the official remain campaigns exceeded leave's spending.
Why was that deemed fair by the EC - that one campaign can spend twice as much as the other?0 -
Soames too.rottenborough said:Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10191908084346961920 -
No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?williamglenn said:
Soames too.rottenborough said:Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10191908084346961920 -
yes, if you read through his tweets he has much greater problems... Life is so much better when we have someone / something to blame.Recidivist said:
Brexit is bad for small businesses and the Tories are now an anti-business party. But I am a bit suspicious of this tweet.Bromptonaut said:What’s all this about Brexit only being a problem for large businesses?
Tory Party shitting on its natural support.
https://twitter.com/mightbnormal/status/1018976906996322304?s=21
I can't see why a small manufacturing business would throw the towel in right now. We still don't know the regulatory regime we'll be under from next spring, but given we still might have a soft Brexit or even not leave altogether it doesn't seem like a good time to give in.
(Planning future investment is quite a different question of course.)0 -
My point it was badly designed.williamglenn said:
I'm perplexed by Gardenwalker's insistence on treating it as equivalent to the Brexit referendum.Sean_F said:
The Scottish vote was pretty much inevitable.Gardenwalker said:Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.
- Changing the electoral system
- Changing the flag
In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.
For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.
We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.
I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.
For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.
- Only a bare majority required
- 16 year olds allowed to vote (why?)
- Scottish expats not allowed to vote
As with Brexit, Cameron thought he could walk it and have not the slightest thought to setting up a properly thought out decision on a matter of vital constitutional significance.0 -
'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.0 -
A general election and majority for Corbyn would lead to a softish Brexit I think. Of course it might create other problems, but it'd sort Brexit more so than the Tories can at the moment ^_~logical_song said:
No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?williamglenn said:
Soames too.rottenborough said:Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10191908084346961920 -
Is that more than UKIP?Sean_F said:
Just about. They have 9 councillors.Yorkcity said:
To be fair , many did not.Sean_F said:
As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."ydoethur said:
So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?NickPalmer said:
They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)Sean_F said:
Gay sex is more important.rottenborough said:
WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?JonnyJimmy said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689MarqueeMark said:
A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....Pulpstar said:
Can I bet on a Government defeat ?CarlottaVance said:
Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
Looks like they weren't paired..
"Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
Does The Liberal Party still exist ?0 -
CETA plus would get through the HoC. Which Tory remainer MPs will vote against it in favour of No Deal?logical_song said:
No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?williamglenn said:
Soames too.rottenborough said:Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10191908084346961920 -
The remain campaign spent more than the leave campaign though.Roger said:'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.0 -
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. At the moment it's he-said-she-saidnotme said:
This is fantastic. I'm a Tory, a working class oik, but i'm loving the absolute evisceration of the cosy little setup. The mask has so slipped its incredible to watch. I dont know if Trump will ever actually 'Drain the swamp', but Brexit is well and truly draining it here.TGOHF said:When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019165426507542533
A joy to observe. Shame we have to leave the EU for it all to happen though.0 -
As Lutz says, politics is the world's third oldest occupation. But, even Shakespeare was at it, when Hamlet tells Ophelia to "get thee to a nunnery", using the euphemism of the period, he is telling her to go into a brothel, which is why she staged left, crying. Learnt quite a bit and seriously thinking about getting a reprint or download onto my kindle..Sean_F said:
People often resort to euphemisms to make themselves feel easier about what they're going.OchEye said:Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
"Doublespeak
William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "
https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak
"Special treatment", "Resettlement" , "enhanced interrogation" "collateral damage."0 -
It would have to be the best advertising ever devised for £500,000 to convert 850,000 from Remain to Leave, and in the face of much higher spending from Remain.Roger said:'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.
0 -
Remain overspent by far more than leave, not to mention the £9 million taxpayer funded leaflet sent to every house before the official campaign, yet the EC refuses to investigate them. This is nothing more than a politically motivated attempt to discredit the 2016 VoteRoger said:'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.0 -
I agree with being cautious about anything tainted with a "Brexit" label, but if I was running a small business with a large export component and I had to decide now on (say) a significant investment in equipment, stock, buildings (lease coming up for renewal, etc) or training then I might make the same decision.Recidivist said:
Brexit is bad for small businesses and the Tories are now an anti-business party. But I am a bit suspicious of this tweet.Bromptonaut said:What’s all this about Brexit only being a problem for large businesses?
Tory Party shitting on its natural support.
https://twitter.com/mightbnormal/status/1018976906996322304?s=21
I can't see why a small manufacturing business would throw the towel in right now. We still don't know the regulatory regime we'll be under from next spring, but given we still might have a soft Brexit or even not leave altogether it doesn't seem like a good time to give in.
(Planning future investment is quite a different question of course.)
Who wants to be tied to a loan or lease over several years if Brexit bankrupts you next March?
It is an absolutely horrible position to be in and it is a far, far bigger bet than people on PB make0 -
-
On the Vote Leave overspend:
- No this does not invalidate the decision.
- Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.
Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.
Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.
0 -
delicious. It really is enjoyable.rottenborough said:SNP call for Cabinet Ministers who were involved with Vote Leave to be forced to stand down.
0 -
The Tories would then elect a hard Brexit leader to unite their base while a Corbyn Labour government would be split between pro EEA backbenchers and MPs from working class Labour Leave seats and likely reliant on minor partiesPulpstar said:
A general election and majority for Corbyn would lead to a softish Brexit I think. Of course it might create other problems, but it'd sort Brexit more so than the Tories can at the moment ^_~logical_song said:
No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?williamglenn said:
Soames too.rottenborough said:Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10191908084346961920 -
While that's true, isn't it also true that if Cabertossers for Brexit had been genuinely independent, then the same people who funded the official Leave campaigns could just have funded C4B directly, and to exactly the same effect? So the actual effect on how people voted is likely to have been minimal, at most?Gardenwalker said:On the Vote Leave overspend:
- No this does not invalidate the decision.
- Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.
Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.
Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.0 -
"The political logic as well as the parliamentary arithmetic points to Labour supporting another referendum in the end. "logical_song said:
No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?williamglenn said:
Soames too.rottenborough said:Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/381f505a-8930-11e8-9b4b-d04c94d077dc0 -
Was it not part of the bluff? If you offered people a looser arrangement they would have taken it with both hands. Sell our widgets+immigration but not funding Spanish moterways etc.Gardenwalker said:Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.
- Changing the electoral system
- Changing the flag
In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.
For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.
We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.
I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.
For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.
The 'all or nothing' was supposed to remain easily...0 -
It's only Gove doing its thing babyGardenwalker said:On the Vote Leave overspend:
- No this does not invalidate the decision.
- Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.
Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.
It's only Gove that you're feeling
It's only Gove doing its thing baby
It's only Gove that you're giving0 -
A Corbyn majority Gov't would have the numbers to get it through parliament even with rebellion on the hard brexit side as they'd have the SNP implicitly onboard with the CU stuff.HYUFD said:
The Tories would then elect a hard Brexit leader to unite their base while a Corbyn Labour government would be split between pro EEA backbenchers and MPs from working class Labour Leave seats and likely reliant on minor partiesPulpstar said:
A general election and majority for Corbyn would lead to a softish Brexit I think. Of course it might create other problems, but it'd sort Brexit more so than the Tories can at the moment ^_~logical_song said:
No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?williamglenn said:
Soames too.rottenborough said:Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10191908084346961920 -
I do wonder what drives people like Cummings and Elliott.Gardenwalker said:On the Vote Leave overspend:
- No this does not invalidate the decision.
- Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.
Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.
Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.0 -
Yes, but if my Aunt was my Uncle, etc.david_herdson said:
While that's true, isn't it also true that if Cabertossers for Brexit had been genuinely independent, then the same people who funded the official Leave campaigns could just have funded C4B directly, and to exactly the same effect? So the actual effect on how people voted is likely to have been minimal, at most?Gardenwalker said:On the Vote Leave overspend:
- No this does not invalidate the decision.
- Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.
Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.
Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.
Also, unlikely the Cabertossers would have half a clue on digital media spend efficacy.0 -
Rubbish! There's an Iceland down the road from hereFreggles said:
Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefactsarcher101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say 0 -
BeLeaveSunil_Prasannan said:
Rubbish! There's an Iceland down the road from hereFreggles said:
Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefactsarcher101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say0 -
If they were referring to CETA, why describe it as being between Iceland and the Russian border? Isn't that the borders of that EEA?archer101au said:
Well the facts are that Vote Leave were talking about a new trade deal for the UK, based on free trade and friendly co-operation. Which is a CETA type FTA deal, not membership of the EEA. And since the UK is between Iceland and Russia, not sure what your point it assuming you even have one.Freggles said:
Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefactsarcher101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say
Or more likely did they just not have a clue?0 -
I don't know. Both Selmayr and Gove seem to manage.Beverley_C said:
Actually, you need to be paired for any kind of sex or else it does not work....FrankBooth said:
Are you suggesting something about their non-attendance? They need to be paired with someone from the other side.Sean_F said:Gay sex is more important.
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I made a subtle change to my avatar exactly two months agoPulpstar said:
BeLeaveSunil_Prasannan said:
Rubbish! There's an Iceland down the road from hereFreggles said:
Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefactsarcher101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say
0 -
hmmm... People who didnt like the result of the vote still dont like the result of the vote....williamglenn said:0 -
The clue is in another of their briefings - http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.htmlFreggles said:
If they were referring to CETA, why describe it as being between Iceland and the Russian border? Isn't that the borders of that EEA?archer101au said:
Well the facts are that Vote Leave were talking about a new trade deal for the UK, based on free trade and friendly co-operation. Which is a CETA type FTA deal, not membership of the EEA. And since the UK is between Iceland and Russia, not sure what your point it assuming you even have one.Freggles said:
Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefactsarcher101au said:
Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.Freggles said:"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say
Or more likely did they just not have a clue?
"We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way."
They thought they were going to blow up the entire European political architecture and put something new in its place.0 -
Which is a problem if you want the result of the vote to become a national consensus...notme said:
hmmm... People who didnt like the result of the vote still dont like the result of the vote....williamglenn said:0 -
Forget the mind bleach, pass the bleach.....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's only Gove that you're feeling0 -
I want some of what Roger's been smoking. Guess the money spent on that government leaflet gained remain a good 6 million votes!Sean_F said:
It would have to be the best advertising ever devised for £500,000 to convert 850,000 from Remain to Leave, and in the face of much higher spending from Remain.Roger said:'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.0 -
Gove is a strangerMarqueeMark said:
Forget the mind bleach, pass the bleach.....Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's only Gove that you're feeling
In an open car
To tempt you in
And drive you far away
And I want you
And I want you
And I want you so
It's an obsession
Gove is a danger
Of a different kind
To take you away
And leave you far behind
And Gove Gove Gove
Is a dangerous drug
You have to receive it
And you still can't
Get enough of the stuff0 -
What drives any political operative and adviser - it's a job and presumably in some respects they Beleave in what they are doing. They were certainly effective and their take back control message was a masterstroke and their campaign won despite spending 50 per cent less than their opponents.FrankBooth said:
I do wonder what drives people like Cummings and Elliott.Gardenwalker said:On the Vote Leave overspend:
- No this does not invalidate the decision.
- Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.
Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.
Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.
For the majority of the public though this technical matter is obscure in the extreme. The result wasn't changed by Beleave and this £0.5m. I think the leave win showed it did have rather a lot of support in the end out in the real world.
What drives Alastair Campbell to provide PR advice to certain dictators who murder and torture their citizens or be the PR guy promoting the case for going to war in Iraq which has subsequently led to the death of hundreds of thousands of people as a result of the chaos caused. He still gets plenty of airtime!
0
