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SystemSystem Posts: 12,687
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump appearing deferential to Putin isn’t going to help him win WH2020

Given the initial US media reaction, even that from Fox News, the President isn’t getting good coverage for his historic meeting with Putin.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2018
    First like putin

    Goodnight
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,210
    edited July 2018
    второй

    (like Trump)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    edited July 2018
    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    Drop an email to Theresa to see if she can fix that
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited July 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    I always presumed 29th March was chosen as it was the last working day of the 2018/19 corporate tax year (which ends on 31 March, unlike the personal tax year)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,288
    edited July 2018
    Actually it confirms the divorce between Trump and the GOP establishment Republican leadership like McCain who are pro free trade, pro globalisation, softer on immigration than Trump and anti Russia. The average Trump voter in the rustbelt could not care less about Putin.


    Indeed on current polls Trump's approval rating is significantly higher than that for the GOP congressional leadership, hence even if the GOP get trounced in the midterms and lose one or both of the House and Senate that does not mean Trump will lose in 2020 in his re election battle
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    not_on_fire said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    I always presumed 29th March was chosen as it was the last working day of the 2018/19 corporate tax year (which ends on 31 March, unlike the personal tax year)
    Technically, corporation tax years are normally the same as a company's financial years. Partnerships largely follow the personal tax year, as they are just agglomerations of people. For those partnerships with EU subsidiaries (of which I'm a member of one) there are going to be some interesting accounting issues in the last week of the year, especially if dividends are remitted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    HYUFD said:

    Actually it confirms the divorce between Trump and the GOP establishment Republican leadership like McCain who are pro free trade, pro globalisation, softer on immigration than Trump and anti Russia. The average Trump voter in the rustbelt could not care less about Putin.


    Indeed on current polls Trump's approval rating is significantly higher than that for the GOP congressional leadership, hence even if the GOP get trounced in the midterms and lose one or both of the House and Senate that does not mean Trump will lose in 2020 in his re election battle

    I can't think of any time in the post-Watergate era when the sitting President has not been more popular than Congress.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    This is it. Putin reelected months ago. Sucessful World Cup over. Trump/Putin summit to agree the deal over. Britain crippled. Core EU compromised by Italy. Only Macron's insurgency and Merkel's survival instincts haven't gone to plan but she's bleeding and badly weakened. All the variables that were in play before The Event have been resolved one way or another. This is it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    This is it. Putin reelected months ago. Sucessful World Cup over. Trump/Putin summit to agree the deal over. Britain crippled. Core EU compromised by Italy. Only Macron's insurgency and Merkel's survival instincts haven't gone to plan but she's bleeding and badly weakened. All the variables that were in play before The Event have been resolved one way or another. This is it.

    Don't worry, HYUFD is happy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,288
    edited July 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Actually it confirms the divorce between Trump and the GOP establishment Republican leadership like McCain who are pro free trade, pro globalisation, softer on immigration than Trump and anti Russia. The average Trump voter in the rustbelt could not care less about Putin.


    Indeed on current polls Trump's approval rating is significantly higher than that for the GOP congressional leadership, hence even if the GOP get trounced in the midterms and lose one or both of the House and Senate that does not mean Trump will lose in 2020 in his re election battle

    I can't think of any time in the post-Watergate era when the sitting President has not been more popular than Congress.
    2011, 2007 and 2008, 1995, 1987
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    I thought 29 March was the end of the EU budget year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Actually it confirms the divorce between Trump and the GOP establishment Republican leadership like McCain who are pro free trade, pro globalisation, softer on immigration than Trump and anti Russia. The average Trump voter in the rustbelt could not care less about Putin.


    Indeed on current polls Trump's approval rating is significantly higher than that for the GOP congressional leadership, hence even if the GOP get trounced in the midterms and lose one or both of the House and Senate that does not mean Trump will lose in 2020 in his re election battle

    I can't think of any time in the post-Watergate era when the sitting President has not been more popular than Congress.
    2011, 2007 and 2008, 1995, 1987
    Which shows how rare it is for presidents who aren't at the end of their period.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    Because it is my sister's birthday and retirement date?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    David_Evershed said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    I thought 29 March was the end of the EU budget year.
    That was my recollection, to make the maths of divorce easier.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    To the point of the header, I don't think anyone pays much attention to McCain or Lindsay Graham trashing Trump. Now, Paul Ryan, that is a different matter:

    "In a statement shortly after Trump's joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ryan said "there is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy here and around the world."

    ""That is not just the finding of the American intelligence community but also the House Committee on Intelligence. The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally," he said. "There is no moral equivalence between the United States and Russia, which remains hostile to our most basic values and ideals. The United States must be focused on holding Russia accountable and putting an end to its vile attacks on democracy.""
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,288
    MTimT said:

    To the point of the header, I don't think anyone pays much attention to McCain or Lindsay Graham trashing Trump. Now, Paul Ryan, that is a different matter:

    "In a statement shortly after Trump's joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ryan said "there is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy here and around the world."

    ""That is not just the finding of the American intelligence community but also the House Committee on Intelligence. The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally," he said. "There is no moral equivalence between the United States and Russia, which remains hostile to our most basic values and ideals. The United States must be focused on holding Russia accountable and putting an end to its vile attacks on democracy.""

    For most Trump voters Ryan is just as much a part of the failed GOP establishment as McCain and Graham
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    MTimT said:

    To the point of the header, I don't think anyone pays much attention to McCain or Lindsay Graham trashing Trump. Now, Paul Ryan, that is a different matter:

    "In a statement shortly after Trump's joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ryan said "there is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy here and around the world."

    ""That is not just the finding of the American intelligence community but also the House Committee on Intelligence. The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally," he said. "There is no moral equivalence between the United States and Russia, which remains hostile to our most basic values and ideals. The United States must be focused on holding Russia accountable and putting an end to its vile attacks on democracy.""

    For most Trump voters Ryan is just as much a part of the failed GOP establishment as McCain and Graham
    For his core primary voters, you are right. But Trump has lost a lot of swing voters - people who wanted tax cuts, or changes to the ACA, or this or that, which would not have been on offer with Hillary. For those people, or for those still on the fence, Paul Ryan is seen as someone who is serious who has bent over backwards to work with Trump and get behind his presidency. That cannot be said of either McCain or Graham.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Putin was the more impressive figure at the press conference but how many American voters will have seen more than a ten seconds clip on the news? It is probably like PMQs here: pundits and partisans work themselves up over Jezza's triumph or humiliation over buses but in the real world, no-one even sees it.

    Trump denying collusion is not news. Trump distancing himself from the three letter agencies is not news. Trump being the less impressive of the two presidents might discomfort Trump's base but voters won't have seen it. Putin read out a long list of points they'd discussed and it is possible the real news lies somewhere in there (Korea, Iran, Syria and so on) but that is not where the American media is looking,
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Off Topic with Apols to OGH

    ****** Betting Post *****

    Yes, apols to Mike for going off hread so early, but this is a betting opportunity which I don't see lasting very long.
    It was always very unlikely that the EU's hard-nosed negotiators were ever going to swallow hook, line and sinker the Brexit terms set out in La May's White Paper as "agreed" at Chequers (NOT) 10 days ago. I mean just how many concessions have they agreed to thus far? That's right ... Sweet Fanny Adams is the answer to that question and no mistake!
    So now that the Tory rebels have forced the Prime Minister to accept a number of would-be unpalatable amendments, the prospects of agreeing a deal anytime soon, or indeed at all are looking very bleak indeed.
    All of which takes me to the betting opportunity, based on No Brexit deal with the EU being reached by 1 April 2019 (ha ha don't all laugh at once). Just two bookies are currently offering this market ... Betfair Sports (i.e. their fixed odds division) go 4/7 (1.57decimal), whilst those nice folk Boylesport from across the Irish sea, who offer seemingly very generous odds of Evens (2.0). Need I say more?

    As ever DYOR.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    Cos my birthday is March 30, and I’m looking forward to celebrating Independence Day...
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited July 2018
    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,288
    edited July 2018
    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    Trump confirmed to Piers Morgan in his Good Morning Britain interview yesterday he will run for re election.

    In the unlikely event he changed his mind Pence or Cruz would probably be more likely than Kasich who may even go third party if Trump runs again and is the GOP nominee
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,288
    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    MTimT said:

    To the point of the header, I don't think anyone pays much attention to McCain or Lindsay Graham trashing Trump. Now, Paul Ryan, that is a different matter:

    "In a statement shortly after Trump's joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ryan said "there is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy here and around the world."

    ""That is not just the finding of the American intelligence community but also the House Committee on Intelligence. The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally," he said. "There is no moral equivalence between the United States and Russia, which remains hostile to our most basic values and ideals. The United States must be focused on holding Russia accountable and putting an end to its vile attacks on democracy.""

    For most Trump voters Ryan is just as much a part of the failed GOP establishment as McCain and Graham
    For his core primary voters, you are right. But Trump has lost a lot of swing voters - people who wanted tax cuts, or changes to the ACA, or this or that, which would not have been on offer with Hillary. For those people, or for those still on the fence, Paul Ryan is seen as someone who is serious who has bent over backwards to work with Trump and get behind his presidency. That cannot be said of either McCain or Graham.
    Hence Ryan is stepping down as Speaker and a Representative in November
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    I do wonder if Trump will want to continue, but he is a narcissist of huuuge proportions, so I expect so.

    Will he have a rival in the Republican primaries? probably. Will Trump be renominated? probably.

    Will he win re-election? quite likely. US voters have shown already what they will swallow in terms of immoral behaviour, self serving lies and Putinphilia. Why will that change?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    HYUFD said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    Trump confirmed to Piers Morgan in his Good Morning Britain interview yesterday he will run for re election.

    In the unlikely event he changed his mind Pence or Cruz would probably be more likely than Kasich who may even go third party if Trump runs again and is the GOP nominee
    As the late Mandy Rice-Davies once remarked ....
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited July 2018
    Hey ... I'm not seriously suggesting that Kasich is the likely GOP nominee, merely that as a well known name and a promising candidate last time, he offers value at 45/1 and arguably by the same token, fair value at 104/1 to become POTUS in 2020. Of course there are shorter-priced contenders to consider if you prefer.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    Some have asserted that it is because new EU rules come into effect on the 30th March 2019, which require the disclosure of all off shore accounts and holdings. As this definitely does not affect me, I have not done any research on the matter, perhaps others might be able to comment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,212
    Foxy said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    I do wonder if Trump will want to continue, but he is a narcissist of huuuge proportions, so I expect so.

    Will he have a rival in the Republican primaries? probably. Will Trump be renominated? probably.

    Will he win re-election? quite likely. US voters have shown already what they will swallow in terms of immoral behaviour, self serving lies and Putinphilia. Why will that change?
    Does Trump have a choice ?
    If he is completely Putin’s creature - and it seems plausible that Putin has leverage well beyond the pee-tape nonsense - then he will be told what to do.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    I backed Kasich last time and found him deeply unimpressive in the primaries. At 66, he may also be too old (and yes, I know Trump is older).

    What the current controversy over Trump and Russia does mean is that almost the entire GOP establishment will be offering their two penn'orth so it is worth watching to see if anyone emerges with more traction than the rest.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,279
    edited July 2018
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    I do wonder if Trump will want to continue, but he is a narcissist of huuuge proportions, so I expect so.

    Will he have a rival in the Republican primaries? probably. Will Trump be renominated? probably.

    Will he win re-election? quite likely. US voters have shown already what they will swallow in terms of immoral behaviour, self serving lies and Putinphilia. Why will that change?
    Does Trump have a choice ?
    If he is completely Putin’s creature - and it seems plausible that Putin has leverage well beyond the pee-tape nonsense - then he will be told what to do.
    Blackmail of that sort would more normally be used to force someone to stand down, not stand again.

    I think he will want to stand if he can (although I don't want to reopen discussions about his proportions :hushed:). The only thing I would say is he might well withdraw if he believes he can't win. That's not a terribly likely outcome though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,279
    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,544
    edited July 2018
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
    He drafted it so as to be unworkable.

    It was one of those cunning plans that goes horribly wrong.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,800
    I actually think McCain may be pulling his punches in that speech.
    "a tragic mistake" and "naivete" somewhat absolve Trump of blame.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    OchEye said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    Some have asserted that it is because new EU rules come into effect on the 30th March 2019, which require the disclosure of all off shore accounts and holdings. As this definitely does not affect me, I have not done any research on the matter, perhaps others might be able to comment.
    That is a very wicked thought from you, Mr Eye. Nobody here on PB would think for one moment that the Top Tories who run the country would allow themselves to put their own self-interest before the well-being of the country as a whole.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,980
    Pops head over parapet after a couple of days away.
    Look around, sees Brexit wars continuing, Labour antisemitism rows, Observer posting corrections and yet another high profile idiot proving David Cameron’s maxim about Twitter.
    Goes back to lurking for a few days more. The big wheel keeps on turning.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited July 2018
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    Cos my birthday is March 30, and I’m looking forward to celebrating Independence Day...
    Ohh me too, I was slightly confused if it was March 29th, or is Brexit day sort of like the christmas eve to the christmas day that is independence day?

    Although as a remainer maybe something slightly less joyous than christmas as an example...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    David_Evershed said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    I thought 29 March was the end of the EU budget year.
    So, the government is putting the EU's interests ahead of my personal tax return . Bastards.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    A lot of Trump's outrageous behaviour is often rationalized on the basis that his voters are angry and they wanted an angry tribune to shake things up a lot. I do wonder whether his relatively meek and submissive behaviour around Putin might finally do him some damage with his base. They don't seem to be the sort of people who want to be represented by a beta male.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
    I believe it took 7 years to negotiate the EU /Canada trade treaty..
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I ask a question. Why oh why oh why is Brexit day the 29th of March? It would be approximately 100x easier if it was at the end of the tax year about a week later.

    I think it was am artificial six month deadline that Theresa May set for calling Article 50 that was due to run out at the end of March.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    HYUFD said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    Trump confirmed to Piers Morgan in his Good Morning Britain interview yesterday he will run for re election.

    In the unlikely event he changed his mind Pence or Cruz would probably be more likely than Kasich who may even go third party if Trump runs again and is the GOP nominee
    For a man his age, overweight and in an extremely stressful job, there has to be a non-trivial chance of a health issue.

    Then there is the risk of legal troubles.

    And finally there is the possibility that he is sufficiently unpopular that he does not stand.

    All told, it's perhaps a 30% shot that he's not the republican nominee in 2020.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Good morning, everyone.

    Saw a clip on the news. It looked bad indeed. Trump came across as either naive to the point of idiocy, or just plain submissive. He's nicer to nuclear-armed nutcases than he is to his country's long term allies.

    Forget who said it, but yesterday someone here wrote that Trump appears to have no interest in or awareness of the US national interest, liking leaders just a personal relationship level. I think that's accurate.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
    Watching a TV programme the other week on the UK joining the EU back in the 1970's, it took 7 years to align trade rules and eliminate tariffs, and that was in much simpler days and fewer trade products.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,457
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
    Three seem to be a lot of people claiming credit for Article 50. Personally, I think it is a good thing. Negotiations to leave the EU would otherwise take about 50 years
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    I do wonder if Trump will want to continue, but he is a narcissist of huuuge proportions, so I expect so.

    Will he have a rival in the Republican primaries? probably. Will Trump be renominated? probably.

    Will he win re-election? quite likely. US voters have shown already what they will swallow in terms of immoral behaviour, self serving lies and Putinphilia. Why will that change?
    Does Trump have a choice ?
    If he is completely Putin’s creature - and it seems plausible that Putin has leverage well beyond the pee-tape nonsense - then he will be told what to do.
    Blackmail of that sort would more normally be used to force someone to stand down, not stand again.

    I think he will want to stand if he can (although I don't want to reopen discussions about his proportions :hushed:). The only thing I would say is he might well withdraw if he believes he can't win. That's not a terribly likely outcome though.
    Why would Putin, having helped elect a President who is so destructive to NATO and sees the EU as a foe, want to force Trump to stand down? Trump also says Crimea should be Russian. Trump is doing Putin's work, whether he is an Agent or an Idiot.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    R4 news: The Leave campaign has been reported to the Police for breaking electoral funding rules. If successful prosecutions take place, will the referendum have to be re-run under the Vienna Convention laws that the previous one took place under?
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Vote Leave fined and refered to the Police.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1019102037102006272/photo/2
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,230
    Had Romney won, I suspect the Left would be on Russia’s side and would be blaming Romney for a rise in tensions.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T1409sXBleg
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,279
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
    Three seem to be a lot of people claiming credit for Article 50. Personally, I think it is a good thing. Negotiations to leave the EU would otherwise take about 50 years
    Time limits are not unreasonable, but this is too short. They could have said five years or an agreed date prior to that.

    This is also the key reason why talks are getting into a mess.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Eye, I'd suggest the police should expedite a decision on that sort of thing, otherwise it could lead to farce.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Returning to the thread, as one must, I somehow don't see Donald Trump standing for re-election in 2020 for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I reckon he'll be a spent force, physically and mentally, by then.
    My tip to succeed him on the Republican side is John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, who made such a good showing last time until it became clear that he'd entered the race too late and therefore didn't have enogh money to continue into the crucial stages of the primaries.
    Anyone interested can currently get tasty odds of 45/1 with Paddy Power, three times the odds of 15/1 available on Betfair, although I was able, just now, to obtain odds of 110 (104.5/1 net) from the said exchange that Kasich would be elected POTUS in 2020.

    DYOR.

    Trump confirmed to Piers Morgan in his Good Morning Britain interview yesterday he will run for re election.

    In the unlikely event he changed his mind Pence or Cruz would probably be more likely than Kasich who may even go third party if Trump runs again and is the GOP nominee
    For a man his age, overweight and in an extremely stressful job, there has to be a non-trivial chance of a health issue.

    Then there is the risk of legal troubles.

    And finally there is the possibility that he is sufficiently unpopular that he does not stand.

    All told, it's perhaps a 30% shot that he's not the republican nominee in 2020.
    If he can again dictate his medical report for his doctor to write down and publish as he did in the run up to the last election, he surely would be the fittest, most intelligent President ever in the known universe.....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,567
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Vote Leave fined and refered to the Police.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1019102037102006272/photo/2

    Surprise surprise.
    Now can we have a proper investigation into Russian interference?

    We know it happened. We just haven’t properly recorded the scale and impact of it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NB Vote Leave’s prebuttal of the Electoral Commission’s investigation included the claim that they hadn’t even been interviewed. Here’s the Electoral Commission’s take:

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1019105258562359296?s=21
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eye, I'd suggest the police should expedite a decision on that sort of thing, otherwise it could lead to farce.

    The Electoral Commission has fined Vote Leave £61 thousand as well as referring them to the Police.

    Apart from which, "lead to farce"? Ahem, I don't think you have noticed.. .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,392
    Trump and Putin have a common foe in the EU.

    That would be the EU that contains most of America's NATO allies.

    Trump simply isn't fit to be President.

    Let him go and build a golf resort in Sochi with his bff Vlad and let the rest of the world get back to normal.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited July 2018
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
    Three seem to be a lot of people claiming credit for Article 50. Personally, I think it is a good thing. Negotiations to leave the EU would otherwise take about 50 years
    Time limits are not unreasonable, but this is too short. They could have said five years or an agreed date prior to that.

    This is also the key reason why talks are getting into a mess.
    With our 2 year time limit we have spent most of the 2 years trying to figure out our position, which I'm not convinced we are sure on yet....

    My only worry is that 5 years would have involved 4 years and 6 months of statements that almost everyone can back because they are vague enough to potentially mean contradictory things. The only reason this debate has heated up recently is because it cannot be delayed any longer.

    What we need is a decent length of time after we have figured out our position...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,841
    NEw THREaD
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Eye, could be wrong, but hasn't the Remain campaign also been fined for such things?

    As for 'farce'... well, perhaps. But things can always get worse.

    Unless you're watching Mrs Brown's Boys, obviously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,841
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-japan-free-trade-agreement-defies-protectionism/a-44695274

    For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.

    Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?

    Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
    Three seem to be a lot of people claiming credit for Article 50. Personally, I think it is a good thing. Negotiations to leave the EU would otherwise take about 50 years
    The problem wasn't the article itself, but the insane desire to jump out of the plane first and work out how to open the parachute afterwards.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eye, could be wrong, but hasn't the Remain campaign also been fined for such things?

    As for 'farce'... well, perhaps. But things can always get worse.

    Unless you're watching Mrs Brown's Boys, obviously.

    The police certainly aren’t involved.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,085
    We need a serious looking economic event like the crisis of 2008 when queues were filmed trying to get their money out of Northern Rock. But we need it quickly.

    Just a casual half hour listening to the news this morning and anyone with a brain larger than a Hartlepudlian could see we are heading for a political and economic catastrophy.

    We are on that car that Dominic Cummings was talking about with no brakes and no one at the wheel heading for a cliff. He just got it the wrong way round.
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