politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes
Comments
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Don't be daft, companies' performance is only representative of the economy as a whole when it fits the narrative otherwise it's an exception.SMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
George Osborne is the Right's version of Climate Change, he's behind everything, affects everything, and the Left want to get rid of him as soon as possible0 -
Mr. Freggles, it's worth mentioning that middling supermarkets are taking it from both ends (as it were), with the likes of Aldi and Lidl getting the lower end and Waitrose creaming off the top.0
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SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
The first estimate of Q4 GDP, due towards the end of this month, will be calculated using the 'output method', so retail expenditure will not influence the figures until later revisions.
The Markit PMIs are all output based and are therefore better indicators of the first estimates of quarterly GDP figures.
It is still too early to say what the final consumer expenditure figures will be for Q4. There is evidence from Markit/Visa that December fell back on a strong November but this conclusion is at odds with major retailer announcements claiming a slow October and November followed by a recovery in late December.
Another way of looking at spend is to watch how household deposits and loans have changed in December. The BoE have reported that retail deposits at banks have remained steady over Q4 with a small growth in borrowing. This suggests that consumers haven't emptied their piggy banks over the Christmas period and still have liquidity to sustain spend through Q1.
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.
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And rightly so, too, although Mrs Freggles reports a disturbingly short shelf life for Aldi veg.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, it's worth mentioning that middling supermarkets are taking it from both ends (as it were), with the likes of Aldi and Lidl getting the lower end and Waitrose creaming off the top.
Tesco are good for Clubcard points and having a broader range of non-food items, Asda are similar to Tesco but cheaper, Morrisons have good fresh stuff but that's about it.0 -
If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html0 -
That has to the most innuendo laden post in PB history.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, it's worth mentioning that middling supermarkets are taking it from both ends (as it were), with the likes of Aldi and Lidl getting the lower end and Waitrose creaming off the top.
Taking it from both ends, and creaming.
I need a lie down.0 -
The really canny shopper uses the marvelous food banks that are now widespread in the UK.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, it's worth mentioning that middling supermarkets are taking it from both ends (as it were), with the likes of Aldi and Lidl getting the lower end and Waitrose creaming off the top.
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Give us an estimate AveryAveryLP said:
SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
The first estimate of Q4 GDP, due towards the end of this month, will be calculated using the 'output method', so retail expenditure will not influence the figures until later revisions.
The Markit PMIs are all output based and are therefore better indicators of the first estimates of quarterly GDP figures.
It is still too early to say what the final consumer expenditure figures will be for Q4. There is evidence from Markit/Visa that December fell back on a strong November but this conclusion is at odds with major retailer announcements claiming a slow October and November followed by a recovery in late December.
Another way of looking at spend is to watch how household deposits and loans have changed in December. The BoE have reported that retail deposits at banks have remained steady over Q4 with a small growth in borrowing. This suggests that consumers haven't emptied their piggy banks over the Christmas period and still have liquidity to sustain spend through Q1.
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.0 -
You need a voucher from a GP, policeman or social worker to use them.MonikerDiCanio said:
The really canny shopper uses the marvelous food banks that are now widespread in the UK.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, it's worth mentioning that middling supermarkets are taking it from both ends (as it were), with the likes of Aldi and Lidl getting the lower end and Waitrose creaming off the top.
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Mr. Eagles, it's not my fault if you have such a filthy mind.0
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High street sales stats may give an insight into everyday spending by everyday people, and may indicate a disconnect between the undoubted economic recovery and the circumstances of ordinary British households. However, shoppers have so many more options these days. If they are exercising these, it would not be a huge shock if established retailers are suffering somewhat. In short, I would not read too much into today's results.0
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Both Winchester and Harrogate seats were changed, with the addition of Tory wards.corporeal said:
Looking it up, Hereford was a seat that got abolished and split up (I haven't check ukpr for how much change there was). T+F was the same. Mark Oaten left certain issues in his wake.TCPoliticalBetting said:Corporeal wrote "Which ones can I ask?
Having a quick non-exhaustive glance around, Julian Huppert took over from David Howarth in Cambridge."
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Yes just spotted that one while you were posting, maybe safer to list 1st and then seek agreement!
Several of these seats were radically altered. So to count Winchester as 2 losses - might be unfair so I left it as 1 loss
1 Colin Breed - South East Cornwall (loss)
2 Mark Oaten - Winchester (Loss)
3 Paul Keetch - Hereford and South Herefordshire (loss)
4 Matthew Taylor - Truro and Falmouth (Loss) albeit amalgamated with another LD seat lost by Goldsworthy.
5 Phil Willis - Harrogate and Knaresborough (loss)
6 John Barrett Edinburgh West (retain)
7 David Howarth (retain)
So 2 retained from 7? Any other analysis?
So of those 7, 2 retained, 1 had some special circumstances left by the previous incumbent, 2 had the constituencies altered.
So you can make an explanatory case around there (depending on how much the seats were changed), and that's without taking into account the state of the seats before-hand.
Lost incumbency makes a difference certainly (well, except in Mark Oaten case), but 2 from 7 probably overstates it.0 -
When I was in Scotland a few months ago, this story was in the newsFreggles said:
You need a voucher from a GP, policeman or social worker to use them.MonikerDiCanio said:
The really canny shopper uses the marvelous food banks that are now widespread in the UK.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, it's worth mentioning that middling supermarkets are taking it from both ends (as it were), with the likes of Aldi and Lidl getting the lower end and Waitrose creaming off the top.
Police refer starving shoplifters to charity food banks
STARVING Glasgow shoplifters are being referred to food banks after a police chief today confirmed more people are stealing groceries because they are hungry.
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/police-refer-starving-shoplifters-to-charity-food-banks-103770n.190925820 -
So, will Farage surrender to the French?TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
Or to Brussels?
Or will he remain neutral, a bit like Chamberlain?0 -
Well, you only need to watch Aladdin to know that hungry people steal food.TheScreamingEagles said:
When I was in Scotland a few months ago, this story was in the newsFreggles said:
You need a voucher from a GP, policeman or social worker to use them.MonikerDiCanio said:
The really canny shopper uses the marvelous food banks that are now widespread in the UK.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, it's worth mentioning that middling supermarkets are taking it from both ends (as it were), with the likes of Aldi and Lidl getting the lower end and Waitrose creaming off the top.
Police refer starving shoplifters to charity food banks
STARVING Glasgow shoplifters are being referred to food banks after a police chief today confirmed more people are stealing groceries because they are hungry.
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/police-refer-starving-shoplifters-to-charity-food-banks-103770n.190925820 -
Five months until the PB Yorkshire get-together yeah?0
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No point surrendering to the French, they have to experience of victories.Freggles said:
So, will Farage surrender to the French?TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
Or to Brussels?
Or will he remain neutral, a bit like Chamberlain?
Belgians, well apart from Victor D'Hondt, TinTin and Poirot, so no point surrendering to them.
Though Belgium was invented to annoy the French, so yes, surrender to Bruxelles.0 -
Current forecast of first estimate of 2013 Q4 GDP = 0.7%.SMukesh said:
Give us an estimate AveryAveryLP said:
SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
The first estimate of Q4 GDP, due towards the end of this month, will be calculated using the 'output method', so retail expenditure will not influence the figures until later revisions.
The Markit PMIs are all output based and are therefore better indicators of the first estimates of quarterly GDP figures.
It is still too early to say what the final consumer expenditure figures will be for Q4. There is evidence from Markit/Visa that December fell back on a strong November but this conclusion is at odds with major retailer announcements claiming a slow October and November followed by a recovery in late December.
Another way of looking at spend is to watch how household deposits and loans have changed in December. The BoE have reported that retail deposits at banks have remained steady over Q4 with a small growth in borrowing. This suggests that consumers haven't emptied their piggy banks over the Christmas period and still have liquidity to sustain spend through Q1.
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.
Will update as we approach release date.
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I have a mind like a Welsh Railway. One track and filthy.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, it's not my fault if you have such a filthy mind.
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"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.0 -
Tnx.Is that like the Fisher Model which becomes closer to the result as election approaches?AveryLP said:
Current forecast of first estimate of 2013 Q4 GDP = 0.7%.SMukesh said:
Give us an estimate AveryAveryLP said:
SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
The first estimate of Q4 GDP, due towards the end of this month, will be calculated using the 'output method', so retail expenditure will not influence the figures until later revisions.
The Markit PMIs are all output based and are therefore better indicators of the first estimates of quarterly GDP figures.
It is still too early to say what the final consumer expenditure figures will be for Q4. There is evidence from Markit/Visa that December fell back on a strong November but this conclusion is at odds with major retailer announcements claiming a slow October and November followed by a recovery in late December.
Another way of looking at spend is to watch how household deposits and loans have changed in December. The BoE have reported that retail deposits at banks have remained steady over Q4 with a small growth in borrowing. This suggests that consumers haven't emptied their piggy banks over the Christmas period and still have liquidity to sustain spend through Q1.
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.
Will update as we approach release date.0 -
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.0 -
It's the Google model!SMukesh said:
Tnx.Is that like the Fisher Model which becomes closer to the result as election approaches?AveryLP said:
Current forecast of first estimate of 2013 Q4 GDP = 0.7%.SMukesh said:
Give us an estimate AveryAveryLP said:
SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
The first estimate of Q4 GDP, due towards the end of this month, will be calculated using the 'output method', so retail expenditure will not influence the figures until later revisions.
The Markit PMIs are all output based and are therefore better indicators of the first estimates of quarterly GDP figures.
It is still too early to say what the final consumer expenditure figures will be for Q4. There is evidence from Markit/Visa that December fell back on a strong November but this conclusion is at odds with major retailer announcements claiming a slow October and November followed by a recovery in late December.
Another way of looking at spend is to watch how household deposits and loans have changed in December. The BoE have reported that retail deposits at banks have remained steady over Q4 with a small growth in borrowing. This suggests that consumers haven't emptied their piggy banks over the Christmas period and still have liquidity to sustain spend through Q1.
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.
Will update as we approach release date.
I will be most influenced by the last SWIFTIndex nowcast due around 17 Jan.
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Daniel Hannan has an article in the current issue of The Spectator, describing the various anti-EU parties, and their similarities/differences.TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9108492/here-come-the-pirates/
One point to take from that is that UKIP is benefitting from an EU wide anti-establishment wave. Headlines won't dent that.
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Aren't UKIP popular? Here's someone from another far-right extremist party (well apparently its full of swivel-eyed nutters, according to its leadership, anyway) who wants to do a deal with UKIPTheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/01/from-toadmeister-how-a-tactical-alliance-between-ukip-and-the-tories-could-work.html
Personally I think the most likely way to gain their aid is to support them
Its also interesting how one minute some people condemn Marine Le Pen's views and the next they hold their views as exemplary.0 -
As a matter of interest ALP, could you let me know what the final figure for Q3 2012 is now showing?
Last year we had a small game on this, and my prediction was mocked. It was a bit out from the first figures, but I wonder if it has crept a bit closer with revisions.
Predictions for Q3 2013 may be interesting, but I will have to get out my guessing stick.AveryLP said:
SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
The first estimate of Q4 GDP, due towards the end of this month, will be calculated using the 'output method', so retail expenditure will not influence the figures until later revisions.
The Markit PMIs are all output based and are therefore better indicators of the first estimates of quarterly GDP figures.
It is still too early to say what the final consumer expenditure figures will be for Q4. There is evidence from Markit/Visa that December fell back on a strong November but this conclusion is at odds with major retailer announcements claiming a slow October and November followed by a recovery in late December.
Another way of looking at spend is to watch how household deposits and loans have changed in December. The BoE have reported that retail deposits at banks have remained steady over Q4 with a small growth in borrowing. This suggests that consumers haven't emptied their piggy banks over the Christmas period and still have liquidity to sustain spend through Q1.
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.0 -
Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.0
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Amazingly brave boy here:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/09/pakistani-boy-suicide-bomber-hero
Now that really is martyrdom.0 -
"yes will win" = "swine willy"0 -
More problems for Gove's free school programme - arrests for fraud
http://on.ft.com/1ajBhNz0 -
Interesting discussion on France (Benedict Brogan & french journalist), starts 18m55s into the audio recording.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/telegram/100253736/misery-in-britain-panic-in-france-welcome-to-2014/0 -
She hasn't endorsed UKIP but her words reflect Farage's extraordinary popularity on the Continent.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
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And which Kippers would that be?TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
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Good job that no fraud has ever occurred in a school under LEA control. I'm guessing it can't have because you have never commented on it. Is it worth a Google to see if there has been any?MikeSmithson said:More problems for Gove's free school programme - arrests for fraud
http://on.ft.com/1ajBhNz
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best not to insult the next Presidente of France, she's got nukes.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
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O/T Saw a number of Labour politicians at Heathrow yesterday. Margaret Curran, Anne McKechin, Caroline Flint, Fiona O'Donnell, Lindsay Roy and even Lord George Robertson. So where did I bump into them. Over a pint n Wetherspoons perhaps, picking up a bag of crisps in WH Smiths maybe? No, instead they were joining myself and the privileged few in the Business lounge. Amazing the riff raff they let in these days!0
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Using Quarterly National Accounts, Q3 2013 Datasetfoxinsoxuk said:As a matter of interest ALP, could you let me know what the final figure for Q3 2012 is now showing?
Last year we had a small game on this, and my prediction was mocked. It was a bit out from the first figures, but I wonder if it has crept a bit closer with revisions.
Predictions for Q3 2013 may be interesting, but I will have to get out my guessing stick.AveryLP said:
SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
The first estimate of Q4 GDP, due towards the end of this month, will be calculated using the 'output method', so retail expenditure will not influence the figures until later revisions.
The Markit PMIs are all output based and are therefore better indicators of the first estimates of quarterly GDP figures.
It is still too early to say what the final consumer expenditure figures will be for Q4. There is evidence from Markit/Visa that December fell back on a strong November but this conclusion is at odds with major retailer announcements claiming a slow October and November followed by a recovery in late December.
Another way of looking at spend is to watch how household deposits and loans have changed in December. The BoE have reported that retail deposits at banks have remained steady over Q4 with a small growth in borrowing. This suggests that consumers haven't emptied their piggy banks over the Christmas period and still have liquidity to sustain spend through Q1.
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.
Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m [ABMI]:
2012 Q2 = 343,802
2012 Q3 = 347,522
Growth = 1.08201814%
Accurate enough?
[It looks wrong though!]
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Evening all.
Late to the Bitcoin discussion on the previous thread.
EIT rightly pointed out that mining is a bit of a misnomer. I would describe mining hardware as a device that you pour electricity in one end, and bitcoins (or fractions thereof) fall out of the other end.
The utility of such a device is therefore determined by how much electricity you have to pour in per coin, and whether the value of the coins exceeds the cost of the electricity.
This rate increases over time (by design) and there is something of an arms race in technology to get ahead of the cost curve.
In the early days, a standard CPU could produce coins for less than it cost, then you needed a GPU, then a FPGA, and now a custom ASIC.
With regards to RCS's situation, if it was previous generation hardware then its utility is probably pretty much expired. Conversely, if the buyer really has mined £1000 in a month, it begs the question why RCS could not do the same0 -
One stand out factoid from that: 70% of french MPs are career civil servants (27m30s into recording).anotherDave said:Interesting discussion on France (Benedict Brogan & french journalist), starts 18m55s into the audio recording.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/telegram/100253736/misery-in-britain-panic-in-france-welcome-to-2014/
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Mike, can you please explain why you hate Gove as much as you do?MikeSmithson said:More problems for Gove's free school programme - arrests for fraud
http://on.ft.com/1ajBhNz0 -
First they laughed.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.0 -
Pepe Mel0
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The day an Englishman is afraid of the French is the day he ceases to be English.Alanbrooke said:
best not to insult the next Presidente of France, she's got nukes.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
I don't plan to cease being an Englishman.
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Well they're not laughing with you.nigel4england said:
First they laughed.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.
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You must be relieved.Pulpstar said:Pepe Mel
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"The issue of course was that none of the other contenders for First Minister had anything like the credibility of Alex Salmond."
One of the main issues and likely the biggest. However, pretending that's all that was voted on is simply wrong. The extraordinarily negative SLAB campaign was very visible and lasted for months while the ground campaign and GOTV was one of the most hard fought and well organised the SNP has ever mounted.
The SLAB campaign was so farcical and negative in fact that little Ed and his minions had to go to scotland several times to belatedly try to change it's direction, when it was far too late to do so. After the SNP landslide you then had the debacle of SLAB taking the entire brunt of little Ed and his shadow cabinet's displeasure for following llittle Ed's orders. That resulted in the supposed "root and branch reform" of scottish labour dreamed up by little Ed and wee Dougie and by enacted by Murphy. That was such a success you then had Falkirk.
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I have been banned in the past for the same reason.GeoffM said:
That's what we need - a Pillory PageTCPoliticalBetting said:
What was he banned for? Any chance of a link on this site to a list of the banned and their crimes?MikeK said:I'm suffering from the banning of SeanT. I have peculiar withdrawal symptoms, with weird dreams of gold strewn around Fort Knox. Somethings got to give: Help!
I really miss the excellent contributions from HD2 - whose sin, it seems, was a refusal to conform to lefty group-think on education policy.0 -
That news story before xmas about an ex-tory cabinet minister maybe getting their collar felt for child offenses doesn't seem to have materialized.0
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Yep especially as I got 6-4 on £50 at ladbrokes at the last moment and only laid off £30TheScreamingEagles said:
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First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you winTheScreamingEagles said:
Well they're not laughing with you.nigel4england said:
First they laughed.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.
UKIP are now at stage three.0 -
Oh you mean like this?saddened said:
Good job that no fraud has ever occurred in a school under LEA control. I'm guessing it can't have because you have never commented on it. Is it worth a Google to see if there has been any?MikeSmithson said:More problems for Gove's free school programme - arrests for fraud
http://on.ft.com/1ajBhNz
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24383163
Funny Mike made no mention of this when it came to trial back in October. Could it be because this was an 'inspirational' headteacher of an LEA school rather than a Free School?0 -
''UKIP are now at stage three. ''
I see the German Foreign minister has weighed in, calling eurosceptics 'brainless'
Every day the news seems to throw up at least 3 cast iron 'vote UKIP' stories....
Still, it seems the euro-stablishment is seriously rattled.0 -
I'm shocked, shocked I say. An LEA school having issues, it's difficult to believe, I thought only "Gove" schools had any problems.Richard_Tyndall said:
Oh you mean like this?saddened said:
Good job that no fraud has ever occurred in a school under LEA control. I'm guessing it can't have because you have never commented on it. Is it worth a Google to see if there has been any?MikeSmithson said:More problems for Gove's free school programme - arrests for fraud
http://on.ft.com/1ajBhNz
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24383163
Funny Mike made no mention of this when it came to trial back in October. Could it be because this was an 'inspirational' headteacher of an LEA school rather than a Free School?
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An intervening pc crash!AveryLP said:
Using Quarterly National Accounts, Q3 2013 Datasetfoxinsoxuk said:As a matter of interest ALP, could you let me know what the final figure for Q3 2012 is now showing?
Last year we had a small game on this, and my prediction was mocked. It was a bit out from the first figures, but I wonder if it has crept a bit closer with revisions.
Predictions for Q3 2013 may be interesting, but I will have to get out my guessing stick.AveryLP said:
SMukeshSMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
...
The story of this Christmas appears to be one of prudent spending on quality product with any excess reserved for outings to restaurants and hotels.
Remember early announcements of sales growth from individual retailer will be in nominal terms (i.e. not adjusted for inflation). So with shop prices falling and CPI at its lowest level for years, it is not surprising the growth figures appear low.
Once deflators are applied and a volume view taken, then we may see higher real growth being reported by the ONS.
Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m [ABMI]:
2012 Q2 = 343,802
2012 Q3 = 347,522
Growth = 1.08201814%
Accurate enough?
[It looks wrong though!]
It is wrong.
The body of the bulletin states that growth in Q3 2012 was 0.8% revised up from 0.6%.
Normally the growth percentages reconcile to the ABMI series. I can't be arsed to find out why not tonight!
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Nope definitely still stage two.nigel4england said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you winTheScreamingEagles said:
Well they're not laughing with you.nigel4england said:
First they laughed.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.
UKIP are now at stage three.
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During the 1/2 time break in the League Cup semi, the other night on 5 Live Pat Murphy (midlands correspondent) was saying his sources were saying Pepe Mel was back in the frame and that Jones and Schaaf were out of the running. I went on Oddschecker and Mel was lowest price 8-1 then but 14-1 with Corals.Pulpstar said:
Yep especially as I got 6-4 on £50 at ladbrokes at the last moment and only laid off £30TheScreamingEagles said:
Went there asap to put £20 on to then find my account is suspended with them. I thought well I'm not going to only take 10s or less so did nothing.
My cup runneth over....0 -
I think you're getting confused with the twelve steps.nigel4england said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you winTheScreamingEagles said:
Well they're not laughing with you.nigel4england said:
First they laughed.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.
UKIP are now at stage three.
But I'm really happy you think Le Pen's comments are helpful.
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Following my successful tips usually does lead to your account being suspended.Scrapheap_as_was said:
During the 1/2 time break in the League Cup semi, the other night on 5 Live Pat Murphy (midlands correspondent) was saying his sources were saying Pepe Mel was back in the frame and that Jones and Schaaf were out of the running. I went on Oddschecker and Mel was lowest price 8-1 then but 14-1 with Corals.Pulpstar said:
Yep especially as I got 6-4 on £50 at ladbrokes at the last moment and only laid off £30TheScreamingEagles said:
Went there asap to put £20 on to then find my account is suspended with them. I thought well I'm not going to only take 10s or less so did nothing.
My cup runneth over....0 -
Can I just say....
Bollocks.0 -
Racist!TheScreamingEagles said:
The day an Englishman is afraid of the French is the day he ceases to be English.Alanbrooke said:
best not to insult the next Presidente of France, she's got nukes.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
I don't plan to cease being an Englishman. 0 -
1% over the year. Interesting, how does that fit with the quarterly rises of Q2 and Q3 2013?
Does that mean that Q3 2012 over Q2 2012 remained negative after adjustment?AveryLP said:
Using Quarterly National Accounts, Q3 2013 Datasetfoxinsoxuk said:As a matter of interest ALP, could you let me know what the final figure for Q3 2012 is now showing?
Last year we had a small game on this, and my prediction was mocked. It was a bit out from the first figures, but I wonder if it has crept a bit closer with revisions.
Predictions for Q3 2013 may be interesting, but I will have to get out my guessing stick.AveryLP said:SMukesh said:Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m [ABMI]:
2012 Q2 = 343,802
2012 Q3 = 347,522
Growth = 1.08201814%
Accurate enough?
[It looks wrong though!]0 -
My elder brothers and my sister went to that school, as did the Liverpool player Raheem Stirling.Richard_Tyndall said:
Oh you mean like this?saddened said:
Good job that no fraud has ever occurred in a school under LEA control. I'm guessing it can't have because you have never commented on it. Is it worth a Google to see if there has been any?MikeSmithson said:More problems for Gove's free school programme - arrests for fraud
http://on.ft.com/1ajBhNz
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24383163
Funny Mike made no mention of this when it came to trial back in October. Could it be because this was an 'inspirational' headteacher of an LEA school rather than a Free School?
A woman who lives local to me was successfully prosecuted by the state school she worked at, not only did she not go to jail she retired immediately on a full pension.
Guess those stories don't suit Mike's pathological hatred of Gove0 -
Because Gove hates Blackadder?nigel4england said:
Mike, can you please explain why you hate Gove as much as you do?MikeSmithson said:More problems for Gove's free school programme - arrests for fraud
http://on.ft.com/1ajBhNz0 -
I think stage two ended with Ken Clarke's "clowns" discourse.saddened said:
Nope definitely still stage two.nigel4england said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you winTheScreamingEagles said:
Well they're not laughing with you.nigel4england said:
First they laughed.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.
UKIP are now at stage three.
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Morris_Dancer said:
They don't get to put their left leg in, consider the terms they could get, and then take their left leg out.
Tell it to the fop.newsfirst @themediabrief 5 Jan
Finally, a "red line" on renegotiations from Cammie to appease his Eurosceptics?
Cameron to consider pushing for cap on workers from EU as he makes cutting immigration top priority in EU renegotiation - UK SunDavid Cameron will consider pushing for a cap on workers from Europe and make cutting immigration a top priority as he seeks to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels
So obviously if he doesn't get this 'red line' immigration cap he'll campaign to stay OUT and won't be shy in saying so.
Cameron insisted he has already made progress on renegotiation, which he wants before putting the issue of Britain's EU membership to a referendum vote by the end of 2017. However, he said much more needs to be done on the issue of immigration and suggested he was willing to raise the issue of a cap in Brussels.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/05/cameron-cap-european-migrants-uk-negotiations-euAsked whether he would ever campaign for Britain to leave the EU if he does not get what he wants, Cameron insisted his goals were feasible.
Or not.
*chortle*
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New thread.0
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Disagree, now at stage three but I concede it's only round one.saddened said:
Nope definitely still stage two.nigel4england said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you winTheScreamingEagles said:
Well they're not laughing with you.nigel4england said:
First they laughed.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Unfortunately this is the bit most of the news will focus uponanotherDave said:
"we don't have the same economic policies [but] they share our point of view on the European Union and immigration: everyone must control his borders, European technocrats must disappear, the European Soviet Union must collapse, everyone must have their own currency, their economic policy and decide in their own home"TheScreamingEagles said:If you listen very carefully, you can hear Nigel Farage and his new media bod crying like disgraced televangelists.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
French far-Right party leader Marine Le Pen says Ukip and Front National could join forces to bring down EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10561969/Marine-Le-Pen-says-Front-National-and-Ukip-closer-than-they-would-like-to-admit.html
I think that's the 'reformed EU' vision Mr Cameron is touting too.
Marine Le Pen says Front National and Ukip 'closer than they would like to admit'
Oh and a few people will say, well Dave was right all along.
UKIP are now at stage three.0 -
''An LEA school having issues, it's difficult to believe, I thought only "Gove" schools had any problems.''
We can only imagine the kerfuffle if, in the next Pisa survey, England starts moving up the table. Labour fiefdom Wales has already said there won't be any improvement there for several years (ie never, as long as labour is in control).
Such an outcome would be incredibly toxic for Ed.0 -
But you're not an Englishman, you're from Yorkshire. you're simply a Dane with a speech impediment.TheScreamingEagles said:
The day an Englishman is afraid of the French is the day he ceases to be English.Alanbrooke said:
best not to insult the next Presidente of France, she's got nukes.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
I don't plan to cease being an Englishman.0 -
Mr P are you back up in the Midlands this month ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Racist!TheScreamingEagles said:
The day an Englishman is afraid of the French is the day he ceases to be English.Alanbrooke said:
best not to insult the next Presidente of France, she's got nukes.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
I don't plan to cease being an Englishman.0 -
I'll be happier when 365, Ladbrokes and Victor settle up !0
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Spoken like someone with zero knowledge of the subject matter as usual.Morris_Dancer said:
Secondly, voting in an election is a million miles away from voting for separation and to destroy a 300 year old nation.
SLAB tried at every opportunity to make their campaign a 'vote for the SNP is a vote for Independence' as well as every 'too poor, too wee and too stupid' negative aspect they could think of. That worked well, didn't it?
LOL
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Yes I am indeed!Alanbrooke said:
Mr P are you back up in the Midlands this month ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Racist!TheScreamingEagles said:
The day an Englishman is afraid of the French is the day he ceases to be English.Alanbrooke said:
best not to insult the next Presidente of France, she's got nukes.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey, trying to explain to kippers why an endorsement from Le Pen isn't a good thing, is nearly as fruitless as the time I tried to teach Abu Hamza to play rock, paper, scissors.
I don't plan to cease being an Englishman.0
