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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes alive and worrying NO
I’ve put this chart up before because it is so important in understanding the dynamics of the IndyRef campaign. For whenever YES is presented with a new poll they respond with what happened three years ago.
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As the consequences of a YES vote in the indy ref are orders or magnitude greater than merely electing Salmond and his posse to Holyrood, I'd say that the chance of a similar swing in 2014 is very, very small. I'd also say that the volatility of the YES/NO split has been much lower than the volatility of the LAB/SNP vote, which would seem to provide more support for this view.
I was going to say - Scottish politics puts me into a comma too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiNO7ptBWNw
About as volatile as a bowl of cold porridge.
Every Glaswegian voter knows that if you don't vote Labour you'll let the TORIES in through the back door.
Any 'Steamers' in the WBA market today ?
O/T - Awesome pixs of US big freeze.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/10552968/US-weather-in-pictures-Polar-vortex-brings-big-freeze-to-North-America.html?frame=2785355
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/celtic-rejects-aid-claims-on-land-deals-147715n.23133779
"The European Commission has asked for details from the football club and Glasgow City Council after receiving a number of complaints about the purchase of land around Celtic Park."
http://footballtaxhavens.wordpress.com/2014/01/01/state-aid-assembling-the-case-for-the-eu/
"Similarly Glasgow City Council in 2007, for the miserly sum of £675,000 sold 5.33 hectares of land located near their stadium to Celtic which immediately became on the same date of sale, security for a low interest loan facility from the Co-operative Bank. Westhorn using Glasgow City Council‘s method of valuing estimates the land, using Govt. DVS resources, between £5-10 Million. "
For a start, it was an SNP/Labour contest (as per the graph above). Labour was compromised by the London/Holyrood divide, and Ed Miliband.
Secondly, voting in an election is a million miles away from voting for separation and to destroy a 300 year old nation.
Thirdly, the SNP had a history of good governance (from what I gather) but their murmurings on independence are (to me, anyway) far less persuasive. The euro/sterling question (with Salmond describing the pound as a millstone around Scotland's neck a few years ago) is particularly dodgy.
On a sidenote, it does seem that the SNP's vision of independence involves pissing off their former countrymen and immediate neighbours quite a lot. Demanding a seat on the MPC, closing Faslane (which would cost us billions), considering their share of the national debt (due almost wholly to Scottish chancellors and banks) to be some sort of optional extra etc. There's, sadly, the possibility that the negotiations will be acrimonious and the separation unpleasant, should it occur.
We could solve this by giving Scotland all the oil and none of the debt. I'd be quite happy to do that if the result was fast route to a small government, self determining, low tax, frack friendly, freewheeling, dynamic economy.
We'd make up the shortfall very quickly.
The referendum should have had a two stage process:
1. Decide In or Out in principle - if Yes there follows a detailed round of negotiations over terms
2. Final approval by the Scottish people - or not.
In the unlikely event the Jockanese contingent do decide to bugger off, there would be huge pressure on Wales and NI to go all devomax too. Or for EV4EL to come along in Westminster. Actually EV4EL may come even if they vote to stay.
I for one would love to see EV4EL (if not an actual English parliament). I think it would be thoroughly good for the UK have a more formal decentralisation of powers. Westminster is too mighty. And the joy seeing a Labour PM and a 'de-facto because they have the votes' Tory Home Sec/Education/NHS etc minster would be a well worth the popcorn.
"here's what we negotiated - take it or do the other thing - you decide.'
To wave goodbye to those Labour trolls from the vast Scottish badlands and prevent them having any say in how sterling is run or anything else in England is run?
Cheap at twice the price.
From the perspective of a political bettor that is a tad worrying
I've never been through this, but as I understand it divorce lawyers tend to advise clients that separations tend to have a better outcome when people are co-operative and settle for a bit less, rather than when they go for a drawn out, bloody battle.
So it should be with Scotland.
England would be far richer and more successful in the long run without the Scottish Millstone.
And if and when things went t8ts up North of the border they could hardly complain we didn;t give them a good start in life.
Richard Sullivan @RichardRSF 9m
Hearing Al-Ahli have been contacted regarding release of Quique Flores
I think they are though iirc...
(Though not until 2016
Points out 8 lib dems (and counting?) won't be standing for re-election in 2015 - 15% of the parliamentary party.
Without looking at it I'd wonder if it was due to the way the party grew so you had a number of the same generation coming in and now retiring at the same time, or that a smaller party just lends itself to greater peaks and troughs like this.
(You can try and make a point that they don't feel up for a hard fight, and there may be validity there, but equally I've seen cases and arguments where a longstanding incumbent holds on for one more election to give the party the best chance of holding, then hands over at an easier election. So that line tends to be an exercise in confirming what you thought about the party's prospects anyway).
Two things I have heard today about Bath though: 1) The Tory candidate is Ben Howlett. He has something of a reputation. Google some of his past comments and see how many you can imagine on focus leaflets. 2) A comment on Lib Dem Voice saying that the Bath Tory party is moribund, much as the Eastleigh one was. No idea how accurate this is, but if so it's hard to see the level of activity needed to take a LD stronghold like Bath.
In the coming months Team Salmond will continue to promise all manner of changes in an independent Scotland. I fear enough of my fellow countrymen will fall for his rhetoric and believe him. After all they thought Gordon Brown was a political giant and voted overwhelmingly for him in 2010.
If as many of us believe, by September it seems clear David Cameron will still be in No 10 come July 2015, it will become simply a vote YES to avoid the nasty Tories and that will probably tip enough voters into the YES camp. Remember in Scotland until 2010 a much greater % of the workforce was on the public payroll in some way or another. Salmond knows that.
Fair enough. I think the thrust of the article is that the lib dems tend to make a big play on the personality of the incumbent in their seats, an advantage they won;t be able to enjoy in a significant number of seats this time around.
I'm not saying that's a correct view, but interesting nonetheless.
And it shows you where the tories are locally if they are moribund in a city like Bath. Goodness.
£25 Backed at 9-2, £30 Laid at 3-1
If they're trying to draw any further conclusions from it I'd be seven kinds of skeptical.
If the Tories lose badly in the May local/EU elections, then by September it will _not_ look likely that "Mr Cameron will still be in No 10 come July 2015."
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Wythenshawe-Sale-East-By-election/Politics-N-1z131s4Z1z0x4imZ1z141ne/
12/1 is probably a touch of value in its own right, and I must say 10/11 UKIP to come second appeals too.
If true then it does not look good for the LDs to have 8 retirements. I had expected 10+ retirements in a post earlier this year.
EDIT:
Having a quick non-exhaustive glance around, Julian Huppert took over from David Howarth in Cambridge.
Not familiar with the author Tim Wigmore – he looks about 14..!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100253623/another-lib-dem-mp-has-had-enough-and-its-great-news-for-the-tories/
http://www.teachfirst.org.uk/bbc-three-documentary-tough-young-teachers
http://www.teachfirst.org.uk/
I'm not anti Teach First and the like, though I'd prefer teaching be seen as an end in itself.
And I'm a pillock for mentioning it.
I wasn't on PB that night and missed the excitement, thankfully.
Having a quick non-exhaustive glance around, Julian Huppert took over from David Howarth in Cambridge."
------------
Yes just spotted that one while you were posting, maybe safer to list 1st and then seek agreement!
Several of these seats were radically altered. So to count Winchester as 2 losses - might be unfair so I left it as 1 loss
1 Colin Breed - South East Cornwall (loss)
2 Mark Oaten - Winchester (Loss)
3 Paul Keetch - Hereford and South Herefordshire (loss)
4 Matthew Taylor - Truro and Falmouth (Loss) albeit amalgamated with another LD seat lost by Goldsworthy.
5 Phil Willis - Harrogate and Knaresborough (loss)
6 John Barrett Edinburgh West (retain)
7 David Howarth (retain)
So 2 retained from 7? Any other analysis?
Agreed the supermarket sales are poor, but it may not necessarily be because demand is weak. It could be partly because consumers defected to online retailers/Aldi Lidl etc.
You have a point, but it would be foolish to make a judgement until we can see the whole picture. Perhaps that's why we haven't seen many posts.
PS I have just realised I have been given a "Troll" for my last comment. I actually forgot there was a "Troll" button. I need a few "Spam"'s for my collection.
I really miss the excellent contributions from HD2 - whose sin, it seems, was a refusal to conform to lefty group-think on education policy.
So of those 7, 2 retained, 1 had some special circumstances left by the previous incumbent, 2 had the constituencies altered.
So you can make an explanatory case around there (depending on how much the seats were changed), and that's without taking into account the state of the seats before-hand.
Lost incumbency makes a difference certainly (well, except in Mark Oaten case), but 2 from 7 probably overstates it.
I bought The Deceit today to read in his (hopefully) brief absence.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Deceit-Tom-Knox-ebook/dp/B00A61ZI2I/ref=kinw_dp_ke/280-3907897-5481628
Tescos Mass middle market sqeezed at top by Waitrose & M&S and at bottom by Aldi & Lidl - down 2.4%
M&S - Knickers down (2.1%), food up (1.6%), Food > 50%
These are the high street losers, the Milibands of retailing.
Satisfied, compouter?
Cambridge shaping up to be a cracking contest in 2015.
It is not a de facto dislike button. Repeated misuse of this button, will see your posting privileges automatically suspended.
Also the site administrator, may reduce your post's text size to a minuscule blob on screen, because every time you use this button, it sends him an email, and it really annoys him when it is used for spurious reasons.
I hope this is clear.
Perhaps they weren't discussed much because they're fairly boring, and because they were widely expected.
I think I'm going to need to send you the tinfoil-hat instructions.
Phasing of sales has also been mixed with a slow start to December, recovery in final week before Christmas and bumper sales in first week of post Xmas sales.
Overall there appears to have been modest overall annual growth and sufficient monthly momentum not to rock the Q4 GDP boat.
Can't see why you are trying to imply a conspiracy, 'pouter.
ex-F1 driver Eddie Irvine sentenced to six months in jail for an Italian brawl:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25672557
The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB now
Can you stop talking about M&S on pb, look at the adverts I'm getting.
pic.twitter.com/0hNm4OumYA
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/uk-tesco-sales-idUKBRE9B307920131204
Morrisons have an image and positioning problem, which has troubled them for a while.
http://www.customerexperiencemagazine.co.uk/slide-view/whats-really-wrong-at-morrisons/
M & S have been in trouble for years - too many consumers complain about a perceived decline in clothing quality and design, and choose to shop in places like Zara and Primark instead.
Replacing outdated IT systems and distribution networks has hit these three too.
After the Euros in May, I'd expect a Blitzkrieg, with France and most of Western Europe to fall and a change at the top.
I'm not invoking Godwin's Law.
I only use Taffys.
You may be right, the wind may have been taken out of the tory sails by the supermarket results a bit, and I was meaning to ask Avery if he thought they were significant, but it looks like he has already answered.
On the other hand, we do want a balanced recovery, so its not the end of the world if retail sales aren't stellar, I guess...
I wonder if compouter1 would be kind enough to tell us when we've discussed this enough for his liking.
The pair had blamed each other for the dispute that took place in the VIP section of the club in December 2008.
2008 - Blimey, the wheels of justice grind slowly in Bella Italia...!
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.
UKIP didn't do very well in Mancs Central I note.
I notice Paddy Power have a market on who will be the first to leave out of these three
Philip Clarke of Tesco
Marc Bolland of M&S
and Dalton Philips of Morrisons
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/uk-business-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1602407
I'm sticking £3.33 on the chap from Morrisons
At least 50 scalded in the US after trying boiling-to-frozen water trick
A stunt where TV reporters threw boiling water in the air to see it freeze instantly has backfired for many who tried it at home
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10561674/At-least-50-scalded-in-the-US-after-trying-boiling-to-frozen-water-trick.html