politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes
I’ve put this chart up before because it is so important in understanding the dynamics of the IndyRef campaign. For whenever YES is presented with a new poll they respond with what happened three years ago.
Comments
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The difference, in my opinion, is that the swing in 2011 did not result in a colossal constitutional change.
As the consequences of a YES vote in the indy ref are orders or magnitude greater than merely electing Salmond and his posse to Holyrood, I'd say that the chance of a similar swing in 2014 is very, very small. I'd also say that the volatility of the YES/NO split has been much lower than the volatility of the LAB/SNP vote, which would seem to provide more support for this view.0 -
How peculiar - your post appears only as a comma on my (Chrome) browser but the text is present when I Quote it.Anorak said:The difference, in my opinion, is that the swing in 2011 did not result in a colossal constitutional change.
As the consequences of a YES vote in the indy ref are orders or magnitude greater than merely electing Salmond and his posse to Holyrood, I'd say that the chance of a similar swing are very, very small.
I was going to say - Scottish politics puts me into a comma too.0 -
It appears you cheekily grabbed first post, then Edited it...Anorak said:The difference, in my opinion, is that the swing in 2011 did not result in a colossal constitutional change.
As the consequences of a YES vote in the indy ref are orders or magnitude greater than merely electing Salmond and his posse to Holyrood, I'd say that the chance of a similar swing in 2014 are very, very small.0 -
Posted this speech on the last thread with regard to wise men spotting the EEC/EU's game in 1975.. Yes to Scottish Independence types may well recognise a lot of the sentiment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiNO7ptBWNw0 -
You snooze, you loseFreggles said:
It appears you cheekily grabbed first post, then Edited it...Anorak said:The difference, in my opinion, is that the swing in 2011 did not result in a colossal constitutional change.
As the consequences of a YES vote in the indy ref are orders or magnitude greater than merely electing Salmond and his posse to Holyrood, I'd say that the chance of a similar swing in 2014 are very, very small.
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yet at the 2010 GE not a single Scottish seat changed hands IIRC.
About as volatile as a bowl of cold porridge.
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The only time I've ever won money betting on politics was backing Salmond in 2011.0
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Yes but they need to "Keep the Tories out" in Glasgow come General Election times...TGOHF said:yet at the 2010 GE not a single Scottish seat changed hands IIRC.
About as volatile as a bowl of cold porridge.
Every Glaswegian voter knows that if you don't vote Labour you'll let the TORIES in through the back door.
Any 'Steamers' in the WBA market today ?0 -
Did I read somewhere this week the Gordon Brown had joined the No team, - or was he merely giving them his backing?
O/T - Awesome pixs of US big freeze.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/10552968/US-weather-in-pictures-Polar-vortex-brings-big-freeze-to-North-America.html?frame=2785355
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The SNP really must feel like they are banging their heads against brick walls in UK General Elections...0
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Glasgow +Labour + Co op +EU story is coming to life ...Pulpstar said:
Yes but they need to "Keep the Tories out" in Glasgow come General Election times...TGOHF said:yet at the 2010 GE not a single Scottish seat changed hands IIRC.
About as volatile as a bowl of cold porridge.
Every Glaswegian voter knows that if you don't vote Labour you'll let the TORIES in through the back door.
Any 'Steamers' in the WBA market today ?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/celtic-rejects-aid-claims-on-land-deals-147715n.23133779
"The European Commission has asked for details from the football club and Glasgow City Council after receiving a number of complaints about the purchase of land around Celtic Park."0 -
Wonder which club the complainants might support ?TGOHF said:
Glasgow +Labour + Co op +EU story is coming to life ...Pulpstar said:
Yes but they need to "Keep the Tories out" in Glasgow come General Election times...TGOHF said:yet at the 2010 GE not a single Scottish seat changed hands IIRC.
About as volatile as a bowl of cold porridge.
Every Glaswegian voter knows that if you don't vote Labour you'll let the TORIES in through the back door.
Any 'Steamers' in the WBA market today ?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/celtic-rejects-aid-claims-on-land-deals-147715n.23133779
"The European Commission has asked for details from the football club and Glasgow City Council after receiving a number of complaints about the purchase of land around Celtic Park."
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"concerned council tax payers" (ahem).Pulpstar said:
Wonder which club the complainants might support ?TGOHF said:
Glasgow +Labour + Co op +EU story is coming to life ...Pulpstar said:
Yes but they need to "Keep the Tories out" in Glasgow come General Election times...TGOHF said:yet at the 2010 GE not a single Scottish seat changed hands IIRC.
About as volatile as a bowl of cold porridge.
Every Glaswegian voter knows that if you don't vote Labour you'll let the TORIES in through the back door.
Any 'Steamers' in the WBA market today ?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/celtic-rejects-aid-claims-on-land-deals-147715n.23133779
"The European Commission has asked for details from the football club and Glasgow City Council after receiving a number of complaints about the purchase of land around Celtic Park."
http://footballtaxhavens.wordpress.com/2014/01/01/state-aid-assembling-the-case-for-the-eu/
"Similarly Glasgow City Council in 2007, for the miserly sum of £675,000 sold 5.33 hectares of land located near their stadium to Celtic which immediately became on the same date of sale, security for a low interest loan facility from the Co-operative Bank. Westhorn using Glasgow City Council‘s method of valuing estimates the land, using Govt. DVS resources, between £5-10 Million. "0 -
Same shenanigans as Real Madrid !TGOHF said:
"concerned council tax payers" (ahem).Pulpstar said:
Wonder which club the complainants might support ?TGOHF said:
Glasgow +Labour + Co op +EU story is coming to life ...Pulpstar said:
Yes but they need to "Keep the Tories out" in Glasgow come General Election times...TGOHF said:yet at the 2010 GE not a single Scottish seat changed hands IIRC.
About as volatile as a bowl of cold porridge.
Every Glaswegian voter knows that if you don't vote Labour you'll let the TORIES in through the back door.
Any 'Steamers' in the WBA market today ?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/celtic-rejects-aid-claims-on-land-deals-147715n.23133779
"The European Commission has asked for details from the football club and Glasgow City Council after receiving a number of complaints about the purchase of land around Celtic Park."
http://footballtaxhavens.wordpress.com/2014/01/01/state-aid-assembling-the-case-for-the-eu/
"Similarly Glasgow City Council in 2007, for the miserly sum of £675,000 sold 5.33 hectares of land located near their stadium to Celtic which immediately became on the same date of sale, security for a low interest loan facility from the Co-operative Bank. Westhorn using Glasgow City Council‘s method of valuing estimates the land, using Govt. DVS resources, between £5-10 Million. "0 -
This is a good point, however, there are some different factors.
For a start, it was an SNP/Labour contest (as per the graph above). Labour was compromised by the London/Holyrood divide, and Ed Miliband.
Secondly, voting in an election is a million miles away from voting for separation and to destroy a 300 year old nation.
Thirdly, the SNP had a history of good governance (from what I gather) but their murmurings on independence are (to me, anyway) far less persuasive. The euro/sterling question (with Salmond describing the pound as a millstone around Scotland's neck a few years ago) is particularly dodgy.
On a sidenote, it does seem that the SNP's vision of independence involves pissing off their former countrymen and immediate neighbours quite a lot. Demanding a seat on the MPC, closing Faslane (which would cost us billions), considering their share of the national debt (due almost wholly to Scottish chancellors and banks) to be some sort of optional extra etc. There's, sadly, the possibility that the negotiations will be acrimonious and the separation unpleasant, should it occur.0 -
Councils shouldn't get involved in Football in the first place. See the Ricoh/Coventry Council/SISU saga.0
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You can't vote tactically in a referendum.0
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''There's, sadly, the possibility that the negotiations will be acrimonious and the separation unpleasant, should it occur. ''
We could solve this by giving Scotland all the oil and none of the debt. I'd be quite happy to do that if the result was fast route to a small government, self determining, low tax, frack friendly, freewheeling, dynamic economy.
We'd make up the shortfall very quickly.0 -
Agree - but even without Scotland there'd not always be a sensible government in London.taffys said:''There's, sadly, the possibility that the negotiations will be acrimonious and the separation unpleasant, should it occur. ''
We could solve this by giving Scotland all the oil and none of the debt. I'd be quite happy to do that if the result was fast route to a small government, self determining, low tax, frack friendly, freewheeling, dynamic economy.
We'd make up the shortfall very quickly.
The referendum should have had a two stage process:
1. Decide In or Out in principle - if Yes there follows a detailed round of negotiations over terms
2. Final approval by the Scottish people - or not.0 -
Bloody Hell. Negotiations with Salmond would take about 10 seconds if that was the case. 3 seconds to sign the paper and 7 to fill his champagne glass.taffys said:''There's, sadly, the possibility that the negotiations will be acrimonious and the separation unpleasant, should it occur. ''
We could solve this by giving Scotland all the oil and none of the debt. I'd be quite happy to do that if the result was fast route to a small government, self determining, low tax, frack friendly, freewheeling, dynamic economy.
We'd make up the shortfall very quickly.0 -
50 odd less Labour and LDs would help however.Patrick said:
Agree - but even without Scotland there'd not always be a sensible government in London.taffys said:''There's, sadly, the possibility that the negotiations will be acrimonious and the separation unpleasant, should it occur. ''
We could solve this by giving Scotland all the oil and none of the debt. I'd be quite happy to do that if the result was fast route to a small government, self determining, low tax, frack friendly, freewheeling, dynamic economy.
We'd make up the shortfall very quickly.
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Mr. Patrick, in your scenario the English, Welsh and Northern Irish should also have a (collective but separate from the Scottish) vote.0
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Mr Wifflestick
In the unlikely event the Jockanese contingent do decide to bugger off, there would be huge pressure on Wales and NI to go all devomax too. Or for EV4EL to come along in Westminster. Actually EV4EL may come even if they vote to stay.
I for one would love to see EV4EL (if not an actual English parliament). I think it would be thoroughly good for the UK have a more formal decentralisation of powers. Westminster is too mighty. And the joy seeing a Labour PM and a 'de-facto because they have the votes' Tory Home Sec/Education/NHS etc minster would be a well worth the popcorn.0 -
...but I don't see why anyone but the Scots should get to vote on a negotiated exit as I mooted below...
"here's what we negotiated - take it or do the other thing - you decide.'0 -
Mr. Patrick, because it'd be a vote on both Scotland leaving *and* the terms. The terms affect the whole UK, not just Scotland, and the Scots have already voted to leave. They don't get to put their left leg in, consider the terms they could get, and then take their left leg out.0
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''3 seconds to sign the paper and 7 to fill his champagne glass.''
To wave goodbye to those Labour trolls from the vast Scottish badlands and prevent them having any say in how sterling is run or anything else in England is run?
Cheap at twice the price.
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Westminster hasn't even considered it's own timetable should YES happen...taffys said:''3 seconds to sign the paper and 7 to fill his champagne glass.''
To wave goodbye to those Labour trolls from the vast Scottish badlands and prevent them having any say in how sterling is run or anything else in England is run?
Cheap at twice the price.
From the perspective of a political bettor that is a tad worrying 0 -
Indeed they dont, they get a vote on independence and if they vote 'yes' it will happen.Morris_Dancer said:They don't get to put their left leg in, consider the terms they could get, and then take their left leg out.
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50 odd less Labour and LDs would help however.
I've never been through this, but as I understand it divorce lawyers tend to advise clients that separations tend to have a better outcome when people are co-operative and settle for a bit less, rather than when they go for a drawn out, bloody battle.
So it should be with Scotland.
England would be far richer and more successful in the long run without the Scottish Millstone.
And if and when things went t8ts up North of the border they could hardly complain we didn;t give them a good start in life.0 -
Unsubstantiated rumour/Twitter bollocks relevant to TGOHF:
Richard Sullivan @RichardRSF 9m
Hearing Al-Ahli have been contacted regarding release of Quique Flores
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I need the Scottish seats kept in the General Election (Doesn't matter too much how they vote...) or my books for GE2015 are screwed !Neil said:
It all happens within 18 months!Pulpstar said:
Westminster hasn't even considered it's own timetable should YES happen...
I think they are though iirc...0 -
They will be - they arent aiming for Independence until March 2016.Pulpstar said:0 -
Interesting article on Don Foster on Conhome.
Points out 8 lib dems (and counting?) won't be standing for re-election in 2015 - 15% of the parliamentary party.0 -
Btw It is apparently OK to post about crap non existant polls a la Hodges. My 'complaint' to the PCC was not upheld :P0
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PC Keith Wallis will appear at a preliminary hearing at the Central Criminal Court before Mr Justice Sweeney tomorrow, charged with a single count of misconduct in a public office in relation to the Andrew Mitchell case.0
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Mm, off the top of my head a bit of a stretch on that one since a number of MPs have been getting very up there in age at the same time (a number 70+ by election time iirc. I don't think Don Foster's quite that old but not far off).taffys said:Interesting article on Don Foster on Conhome.
Points out 8 lib dems (and counting?) won't be standing for re-election in 2015 - 15% of the parliamentary party.
Without looking at it I'd wonder if it was due to the way the party grew so you had a number of the same generation coming in and now retiring at the same time, or that a smaller party just lends itself to greater peaks and troughs like this.
(You can try and make a point that they don't feel up for a hard fight, and there may be validity there, but equally I've seen cases and arguments where a longstanding incumbent holds on for one more election to give the party the best chance of holding, then hands over at an easier election. So that line tends to be an exercise in confirming what you thought about the party's prospects anyway).0 -
Quite an amusing read. They are convinced that 8 MPs (7 of whom are approaching retirement age / have long service, Sarah Teather being the exception) shows how resigned the Lib Dems are to getting a thrashing and know the Tories will take the seats off them. Let's bookmark that one for the future.taffys said:Interesting article on Don Foster on Conhome.
Points out 8 lib dems (and counting?) won't be standing for re-election in 2015 - 15% of the parliamentary party.
Two things I have heard today about Bath though: 1) The Tory candidate is Ben Howlett. He has something of a reputation. Google some of his past comments and see how many you can imagine on focus leaflets. 2) A comment on Lib Dem Voice saying that the Bath Tory party is moribund, much as the Eastleigh one was. No idea how accurate this is, but if so it's hard to see the level of activity needed to take a LD stronghold like Bath.0 -
Evening all. If I had £10 to bet, I would put £6 on Salmond winning a YES and £4 on Darling winning a NO. There is a huge disconnect between the Scottish chatterati and the typical punter. Salmond will continue pushing YES voters = patriots and NO voters = 5th columnist closet English Tory supporters.
In the coming months Team Salmond will continue to promise all manner of changes in an independent Scotland. I fear enough of my fellow countrymen will fall for his rhetoric and believe him. After all they thought Gordon Brown was a political giant and voted overwhelmingly for him in 2010.
If as many of us believe, by September it seems clear David Cameron will still be in No 10 come July 2015, it will become simply a vote YES to avoid the nasty Tories and that will probably tip enough voters into the YES camp. Remember in Scotland until 2010 a much greater % of the workforce was on the public payroll in some way or another. Salmond knows that.0 -
Let's bookmark that one for the future.
Fair enough. I think the thrust of the article is that the lib dems tend to make a big play on the personality of the incumbent in their seats, an advantage they won;t be able to enjoy in a significant number of seats this time around.
I'm not saying that's a correct view, but interesting nonetheless.
And it shows you where the tories are locally if they are moribund in a city like Bath. Goodness.0 -
So you're saying that unionists should vote UKIP this May, and dish the Tories?Easterross said:
If as many of us believe, by September it seems clear David Cameron will still be in No 10 come July 2015, it will become simply a vote YES to avoid the nasty Tories and that will probably tip enough voters into the YES camp. Remember in Scotland until 2010 a much greater % of the workforce was on the public payroll in some way or another. Salmond knows that.
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What has the vote of Scottish Unionists at the Euro elections got to do with David Cameron being in the lead in UK polls by September. In May UKIP will do well to come 4th in Scotland.anotherDave said:
So you're saying that unionists should vote UKIP in May, and dish the Tories?Easterross said:
If as many of us believe, by September it seems clear David Cameron will still be in No 10 come July 2015, it will become simply a vote YES to avoid the nasty Tories and that will probably tip enough voters into the YES camp. Remember in Scotland until 2010 a much greater % of the workforce was on the public payroll in some way or another. Salmond knows that.
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WBA Manager action !
£25 Backed at 9-2, £30 Laid at 3-1
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In terms of incumbency advantage, that both exists and will be a hit to Lib Dem prospects in the seat (how much depends on replacement candidate etc).taffys said:Let's bookmark that one for the future.
Fair enough. I think the
thrust of the article is that the lib dems tend to make a big play on the personality of the incumbent in their seats, an advantage they won;t be able to enjoy in a significant number of seats this time around.
I'm not saying that's a correct view, but interesting nonetheless.
And it shows you where the tories are locally if they are moribund in a city like Bath. Goodness.
If they're trying to draw any further conclusions from it I'd be seven kinds of skeptical.0 -
English, Welsh and Irish unionists too.Easterross said:
What has the vote of Scottish Unionists at the Euro elections got to do with David Cameron being in the lead in UK polls by September. In May UKIP will do well to come 4th in Scotland.anotherDave said:
So you're saying that unionists should vote UKIP in May, and dish the Tories?Easterross said:
If as many of us believe, by September it seems clear David Cameron will still be in No 10 come July 2015, it will become simply a vote YES to avoid the nasty Tories and that will probably tip enough voters into the YES camp. Remember in Scotland until 2010 a much greater % of the workforce was on the public payroll in some way or another. Salmond knows that.
If the Tories lose badly in the May local/EU elections, then by September it will _not_ look likely that "Mr Cameron will still be in No 10 come July 2015."
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All of youse who've been laying rcs1000 at 2/1 or 11/2 or whatever may wish to cover yourselves at 12/1:
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Wythenshawe-Sale-East-By-election/Politics-N-1z131s4Z1z0x4imZ1z141ne/
12/1 is probably a touch of value in its own right, and I must say 10/11 UKIP to come second appeals too.0 -
I have to say that both of those look great value.Tissue_Price said:All of youse who've been laying rcs1000 at 2/1 or 11/2 or whatever may wish to cover yourselves at 12/1:
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Wythenshawe-Sale-East-By-election/Politics-N-1z131s4Z1z0x4imZ1z141ne/
12/1 is probably a touch of value in its own right, and I must say 10/11 UKIP to come second appeals too.0 -
I'm suffering from the banning of SeanT. I have peculiar withdrawal symptoms, with weird dreams of gold strewn around Fort Knox. Somethings got to give: Help!0
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From a quick check it looks like there were 5 LD retirements at GE2010 (unchanged seats) and only in one, Edinburgh West, was the seat held. An 80% attrition rate.tpfkar said:
Quite an amusing read. They are convinced that 8 MPs (7 of whom are approaching retirement age / have long service, Sarah Teather being the exception) shows how resigned the Lib Dems are to getting a thrashing and know the Tories will take the seats off them. Let's bookmark that one for the future.taffys said:Interesting article on Don Foster on Conhome.
Points out 8 lib dems (and counting?) won't be standing for re-election in 2015 - 15% of the parliamentary party.
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If true then it does not look good for the LDs to have 8 retirements. I had expected 10+ retirements in a post earlier this year.0 -
Which ones can I ask?TCPoliticalBetting said:
From a quick check it looks like there were 5 LD retirements at GE2010 (unchanged seats) and only in one, Edinburgh West, was the seat held. An 80% attrition rate.tpfkar said:
Quite an amusing read. They are convinced that 8 MPs (7 of whom are approaching retirement age / have long service, Sarah Teather being the exception) shows how resigned the Lib Dems are to getting a thrashing and know the Tories will take the seats off them. Let's bookmark that one for the future.taffys said:Interesting article on Don Foster on Conhome.
Points out 8 lib dems (and counting?) won't be standing for re-election in 2015 - 15% of the parliamentary party.
...
If true then it does not look good for the LDs to have 8 retirements. I had expected 10+ retirements in a post earlier this year.
EDIT:
Having a quick non-exhaustive glance around, Julian Huppert took over from David Howarth in Cambridge.0 -
What was he banned for? Any chance of a link on this site to a list of the banned and their crimes?MikeK said:I'm suffering from the banning of SeanT. I have peculiar withdrawal symptoms, with weird dreams of gold strewn around Fort Knox. Somethings got to give: Help!
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Telegraph: - “Even Liberal Democrat MPs don't agree with Nick any more: eight are now retiring at the next election. And it's this – much more than their dire poll ratings – that is the real disaster for the Lib Dems. Without their sitting MPs, strongholds built up over decades could collapse.”
Not familiar with the author Tim Wigmore – he looks about 14..!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100253623/another-lib-dem-mp-has-had-enough-and-its-great-news-for-the-tories/
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OT but prog on BBC3 at nine about 'Teach First' recruits (one of the orgs that Gove has in mind when he talks positively about teachers). Probably some good fodder for 'state of educationers' too I'd imagine.
http://www.teachfirst.org.uk/bbc-three-documentary-tough-young-teachers
http://www.teachfirst.org.uk/
I'm not anti Teach First and the like, though I'd prefer teaching be seen as an end in itself.0 -
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2010/03/09/retiring-mps-the-full-listcorporeal said:
Which ones can I ask?TCPoliticalBetting said:
From a quick check it looks like there were 5 LD retirements at GE2010 (unchanged seats) and only in one, Edinburgh West, was the seat held. An 80% attrition rate.tpfkar said:
Quite an amusing read. They are convinced that 8 MPs (7 of whom are approaching retirement age / have long service, Sarah Teather being the exception) shows how resigned the Lib Dems are to getting a thrashing and know the Tories will take the seats off them. Let's bookmark that one for the future.taffys said:Interesting article on Don Foster on Conhome.
Points out 8 lib dems (and counting?) won't be standing for re-election in 2015 - 15% of the parliamentary party.
...
If true then it does not look good for the LDs to have 8 retirements. I had expected 10+ retirements in a post earlier this year.
EDIT:
Having a quick non-exhaustive glance around, Julian Huppert took over from David Howarth in Cambridge.
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He was a pillock for responding to another poster who was being a pillock, and then pillockilly bragged about the first pillock being banned.TCPoliticalBetting said:
What was he banned for? Any chance of a link on this site to a list of the banned and their crimes?MikeK said:I'm suffering from the banning of SeanT. I have peculiar withdrawal symptoms, with weird dreams of gold strewn around Fort Knox. Somethings got to give: Help!
And I'm a pillock for mentioning it.
I wasn't on PB that night and missed the excitement, thankfully.0 -
I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?0
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I mentioned the poor Tescos and Morrisons figures in the thread this morning.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
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Corporeal wrote "Which ones can I ask?
Having a quick non-exhaustive glance around, Julian Huppert took over from David Howarth in Cambridge."
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Yes just spotted that one while you were posting, maybe safer to list 1st and then seek agreement!
Several of these seats were radically altered. So to count Winchester as 2 losses - might be unfair so I left it as 1 loss
1 Colin Breed - South East Cornwall (loss)
2 Mark Oaten - Winchester (Loss)
3 Paul Keetch - Hereford and South Herefordshire (loss)
4 Matthew Taylor - Truro and Falmouth (Loss) albeit amalgamated with another LD seat lost by Goldsworthy.
5 Phil Willis - Harrogate and Knaresborough (loss)
6 John Barrett Edinburgh West (retain)
7 David Howarth (retain)
So 2 retained from 7? Any other analysis?
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Supermarket sales are the new polls. If they don't follow the site posters narrative, the majority of posters give it a "Look Squirrel".JosiasJessop said:
I mentioned the poor Tescos and Morrisons figures in the thread this morning.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
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The more pertinent point maybe that even though the LDs were on a voting high at the GE and against a slump in Labour, they failed to retain most of the seats that they had retiring MPs.0
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Tesco losing market share to Sainsbos is Cameron's fault ??compouter1 said:
Supermarket sales are the new polls. If they don't follow the site posters narrative, the majority of posters give it a "Look Squirrel".JosiasJessop said:
I mentioned the poor Tescos and Morrisons figures in the thread this morning.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of ureporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
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Supermarket sales are the new polls.
Agreed the supermarket sales are poor, but it may not necessarily be because demand is weak. It could be partly because consumers defected to online retailers/Aldi Lidl etc.
You have a point, but it would be foolish to make a judgement until we can see the whole picture. Perhaps that's why we haven't seen many posts.
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Who said that?TGOHF said:
Tesco losing market share to Sainsbos is Cameron's fault ??compouter1 said:
Supermarket sales are the new polls. If they don't follow the site posters narrative, the majority of posters give it a "Look Squirrel".JosiasJessop said:
I mentioned the poor Tescos and Morrisons figures in the thread this morning.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of ureporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
PS I have just realised I have been given a "Troll" for my last comment. I actually forgot there was a "Troll" button. I need a few "Spam"'s for my collection.0 -
That's what we need - a Pillory PageTCPoliticalBetting said:
What was he banned for? Any chance of a link on this site to a list of the banned and their crimes?MikeK said:I'm suffering from the banning of SeanT. I have peculiar withdrawal symptoms, with weird dreams of gold strewn around Fort Knox. Somethings got to give: Help!
I really miss the excellent contributions from HD2 - whose sin, it seems, was a refusal to conform to lefty group-think on education policy.
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Even funnier - I've just noticed the 'Off-Topic' button - surely on PB everything is Off-Topic about 3 posts in? (And that's part of the joy obviously!)compouter1 said:
PS I have just realised I have been given a "Troll" for my last comment. I actually forgot there was a "Troll" button. I need a few "Flag"'s for my collection.0 -
Taffys - Do you honestly believe that is the reason they have hardly been mentioned today, whilst other results this week were trumpeted and received a huge amount of comments?taffys said:Supermarket sales are the new polls.
Agreed the supermarket sales are poor, but it may not necessarily be because demand is weak. It could be partly because consumers defected to online retailers/Aldi Lidl etc.
You have a point, but it would be foolish to make a judgement until we can see the whole picture. Perhaps that's why we haven't seen many posts.0 -
Looking it up, Hereford was a seat that got abolished and split up (I haven't check ukpr for how much change there was). T+F was the same. Mark Oaten left certain issues in his wake.TCPoliticalBetting said:Corporeal wrote "Which ones can I ask?
Having a quick non-exhaustive glance around, Julian Huppert took over from David Howarth in Cambridge."
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Yes just spotted that one while you were posting, maybe safer to list 1st and then seek agreement!
Several of these seats were radically altered. So to count Winchester as 2 losses - might be unfair so I left it as 1 loss
1 Colin Breed - South East Cornwall (loss)
2 Mark Oaten - Winchester (Loss)
3 Paul Keetch - Hereford and South Herefordshire (loss)
4 Matthew Taylor - Truro and Falmouth (Loss) albeit amalgamated with another LD seat lost by Goldsworthy.
5 Phil Willis - Harrogate and Knaresborough (loss)
6 John Barrett Edinburgh West (retain)
7 David Howarth (retain)
So 2 retained from 7? Any other analysis?
So of those 7, 2 retained, 1 had some special circumstances left by the previous incumbent, 2 had the constituencies altered.
So you can make an explanatory case around there (depending on how much the seats were changed), and that's without taking into account the state of the seats before-hand.
Lost incumbency makes a difference certainly (well, except in Mark Oaten case), but 2 from 7 probably overstates it.0 -
Get one of his books!MikeK said:I'm suffering from the banning of SeanT. I have peculiar withdrawal symptoms, with weird dreams of gold strewn around Fort Knox. Somethings got to give: Help!
I bought The Deceit today to read in his (hopefully) brief absence.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Deceit-Tom-Knox-ebook/dp/B00A61ZI2I/ref=kinw_dp_ke/280-3907897-54816280 -
Because you are unable to do it? If you genuinely believe it to be important post something.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
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Morrisons Skewed to the desolate North, no online, unclear positioning - down 5.6%compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
Tescos Mass middle market sqeezed at top by Waitrose & M&S and at bottom by Aldi & Lidl - down 2.4%
M&S - Knickers down (2.1%), food up (1.6%), Food > 50%
These are the high street losers, the Milibands of retailing.
Satisfied, compouter?0 -
Huppert won but the Cons went from 3rd to 2nd - so it was good for them.
Cambridge shaping up to be a cracking contest in 2015.
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Yes.compouter1 said:
Taffys - Do you honestly believe that is the reason they have hardly been mentioned today, whilst other results this week were trumpeted and received a huge amount of comments?taffys said:Supermarket sales are the new polls.
Agreed the supermarket sales are poo
Kr, but it may not necessarily be because demand is weak. It could be partly because consumers defected to online retailers/Aldi Lidl etc.
You have a point, but it would be foolish to make a judgement until we can see the whole picture. Perhaps that's why we haven't seen many posts.0 -
Never actually said it was important, it was Camerons fault, or mentioned why they had fallen. Just observed the lack of posts on the subject compared to previous days and was wondering the reason why.saddened said:
Because you are unable to do it? If you genuinely believe it to be important post something.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
0 -
Just a reminder, the spam/troll button is only to be used if there's a comment that is libellous/defamatory/breaks the site rules/likely to get Mike Smithson in to trouble/or is actual spam.
It is not a de facto dislike button. Repeated misuse of this button, will see your posting privileges automatically suspended.
Also the site administrator, may reduce your post's text size to a minuscule blob on screen, because every time you use this button, it sends him an email, and it really annoys him when it is used for spurious reasons.
I hope this is clear.0 -
Taffys - How many usernames do you have?TGOHF said:
Yes.compouter1 said:
Taffys - Do you honestly believe that is the reason they have hardly been mentioned today, whilst other results this week were trumpeted and received a huge amount of comments?taffys said:Supermarket sales are the new polls.
Agreed the supermarket sales are poo
Kr, but it may not necessarily be because demand is weak. It could be partly because consumers defected to online retailers/Aldi Lidl etc.
You have a point, but it would be foolish to make a judgement until we can see the whole picture. Perhaps that's why we haven't seen many posts.0 -
Yes, now they have been mentioned.AveryLP said:
Morrisons Skewed to the desolate North, no online, unclear positioning - down 5.6%compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
Tescos Mass middle market sqeezed at top by Waitrose & M&S and at bottom by Aldi & Lidl - down 2.4%
M&S - Knickers down (2.1%), food up (1.6%), Food > 50%
These are the high street losers, the Milibands of retailing.
Satisfied, compouter?0 -
"Also the site administrator, may reduce your post's text size to a minuscule blob on screen, because every time you use this button, it sends him an email, and it really annoys him when it is used for spurious reasons" - LOL!0
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compouter1 said:
I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?</block
Maybe because everyone was celebrating the Sainsbury crossover.0 -
I mentioned them when they came out (I also mentioned Rolls Royce's improved sales). It is up to the site's contributors to expand it into a discussion if they want.compouter1 said:
Never actually said it was important, it was Camerons fault, or mentioned why they had fallen. Just observed the lack of posts on the subject compared to previous days and was wondering the reason why.saddened said:
Because you are unable to do it? If you genuinely believe it to be important post something.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
Perhaps they weren't discussed much because they're fairly boring, and because they were widely expected.
I think I'm going to need to send you the tinfoil-hat instructions.0 -
If you had read the posts on retail sales you would have noted that the reports have consistently been of mixed results with certain sectors thriving (online sales, click'n'collect, hotels and restaurants); others suffering (non-food high street discounters, food and drink).compouter1 said:
Taffys - Do you honestly believe that is the reason they have hardly been mentioned today, whilst other results this week were trumpeted and received a huge amount of comments?taffys said:Supermarket sales are the new polls.
Agreed the supermarket sales are poor, but it may not necessarily be because demand is weak. It could be partly because consumers defected to online retailers/Aldi Lidl etc.
You have a point, but it would be foolish to make a judgement until we can see the whole picture. Perhaps that's why we haven't seen many posts.
Phasing of sales has also been mixed with a slow start to December, recovery in final week before Christmas and bumper sales in first week of post Xmas sales.
Overall there appears to have been modest overall annual growth and sufficient monthly momentum not to rock the Q4 GDP boat.
Can't see why you are trying to imply a conspiracy, 'pouter.
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Off-topic:
ex-F1 driver Eddie Irvine sentenced to six months in jail for an Italian brawl:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-256725570 -
Can you all stop talking about PB, I'm on a work laptop at the moment and look at the adverts I'm getting
The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB now
Can you stop talking about M&S on pb, look at the adverts I'm getting.
pic.twitter.com/0hNm4OumYA0 -
Tesco have been addressing their decline in sales with a £ billion turnaround over the last year, so their results are hardly a surprise.JosiasJessop said:
I mentioned them when they came out (I also mentioned Rolls Royce's improved sales). It is up to the site's contributors to expand it into a discussion if they want.compouter1 said:
Never actually said it was important, it was Camerons fault, or mentioned why they had fallen. Just observed the lack of posts on the subject compared to previous days and was wondering the reason why.saddened said:
Because you are unable to do it? If you genuinely believe it to be important post something.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
Perhaps they weren't discussed much because they're fairly boring, and because they were widely expected.
I think I'm going to need to send you the tinfoil-hat instructions.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/uk-tesco-sales-idUKBRE9B307920131204
Morrisons have an image and positioning problem, which has troubled them for a while.
http://www.customerexperiencemagazine.co.uk/slide-view/whats-really-wrong-at-morrisons/
M & S have been in trouble for years - too many consumers complain about a perceived decline in clothing quality and design, and choose to shop in places like Zara and Primark instead.
Replacing outdated IT systems and distribution networks has hit these three too.
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On topic, to possibly annoy Michael Gove, the analogy is that we're in the phoney war stage, so it's 1939, Germany have invaded Poland, Neville Chamberlain is still British Prime Minister.
After the Euros in May, I'd expect a Blitzkrieg, with France and most of Western Europe to fall and a change at the top.
I'm not invoking Godwin's Law.0 -
'Pouter.
I only use Taffys.
You may be right, the wind may have been taken out of the tory sails by the supermarket results a bit, and I was meaning to ask Avery if he thought they were significant, but it looks like he has already answered.
On the other hand, we do want a balanced recovery, so its not the end of the world if retail sales aren't stellar, I guess...0 -
Don't Morrison's problems date back to the takeover of the Safeway chain, and its later purchase of Co-op and Somerfield stores?TheWatcher said:
Tesco have been addressing their decline in sales with a £ billion turnaround over the last year, so their results are hardly a surprise.JosiasJessop said:
I mentioned them when they came out (I also mentioned Rolls Royce's improved sales). It is up to the site's contributors to expand it into a discussion if they want.compouter1 said:
Never actually said it was important, it was Camerons fault, or mentioned why they had fallen. Just observed the lack of posts on the subject compared to previous days and was wondering the reason why.saddened said:
Because you are unable to do it? If you genuinely believe it to be important post something.compouter1 said:I note there has been a distinct lack of reporting of supermarket sales figures and business news today.......mmmmm, now I wonder why?
Perhaps they weren't discussed much because they're fairly boring, and because they were widely expected.
I think I'm going to need to send you the tinfoil-hat instructions.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/uk-tesco-sales-idUKBRE9B307920131204
Morrisons have an image and positioning problem, which has troubled them for a while.
http://www.customerexperiencemagazine.co.uk/slide-view/whats-really-wrong-at-morrisons/
M & S have been in trouble for years - too many consumers complain about a perceived decline in clothing quality and design, and choose to shop in places like Zara and Primark instead.
Replacing outdated IT systems and distribution networks has hit these three too.
I wonder if compouter1 would be kind enough to tell us when we've discussed this enough for his liking.0 -
Irvine, who is from Northern Ireland, and Gabriele Moratti, the son of a former Milan mayor, were found guilty of "mutual injury".JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
ex-F1 driver Eddie Irvine sentenced to six months in jail for an Italian brawl:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25672557
The pair had blamed each other for the dispute that took place in the VIP section of the club in December 2008.
2008 - Blimey, the wheels of justice grind slowly in Bella Italia...!0 -
Well it`s funny how holes seem to be picked in the individal companies` records as to why they have had falling sales.It is not difficult to see that even in companies which have done well,they have just about managed to do better and not achieved massive sales over 2012.
It points to underlying poor consumer spending despite all the fluff over confidence levels and PMI figures.This has got to raise worries for the times ahead including Q4 figures.0 -
I think Shadsy has priced the seat up correctly actually.
UKIP didn't do very well in Mancs Central I note.0 -
There's a betting angle to all these supermarket sales.
I notice Paddy Power have a market on who will be the first to leave out of these three
Philip Clarke of Tesco
Marc Bolland of M&S
and Dalton Philips of Morrisons
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/uk-business-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1602407
I'm sticking £3.33 on the chap from Morrisons0 -
EpicMegalolz as the kids say
At least 50 scalded in the US after trying boiling-to-frozen water trick
A stunt where TV reporters threw boiling water in the air to see it freeze instantly has backfired for many who tried it at home
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10561674/At-least-50-scalded-in-the-US-after-trying-boiling-to-frozen-water-trick.html0 -
Mr. Eagles, no kids say that, you silly fellow.0
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The Court of Appeal (Criminal Division) will hear applications for permission to appeal against sentence in Bridger and Smith & Newell, and an Attornery General's Reference in McCloughlin, on January 24. The court will determine whether whole life orders can still be imposed in England and Wales following the judgment of the Strasbourg court in Vinter. The Court will be constituted by Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd CJ, Sir Brian Leveson PQBD, Hallett & Treacy LJJ, & Burnett J. It is notable that the Chief has chosen not to sit with any human rights specialists.0
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