politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If some of the threats we are hearing are carried out then the

First out the blocks.

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

Irritating isn't it? I'm still smarting from David Gauke not resigning and missing out on the Rudd bet.

Fox off?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1014935568919203842

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

Maybe you should email her and let her know how much you'll win if she did. I'm sure that'd help her see sense.

It's not about money, call me old fashioned but when a Minister repeatedly misleads the Commons they should quit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

So staying on then?

Anyone looking forward to a Liam Fox Off, headline?

Not just the Labour party that has a problem....

The German government plans to send 170 anti-bullying experts into schools after the summer break to tackle anti-Semitism among children.

"Anti-Semitism in schools is a big problem," Families Minister Franziska Giffey said.

surby said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fox off?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1014935568919203842

I thought May was having separate meetings with key cabinet ministers before tomorrow.

Fox was supposedly in the meeting with Johnson and the rest at the FCO. My bet would be that he stays on as a favour to May.

I think this one will be decided on dead heat rules if it’s this weekend. Can’t imagine that one poor bugger does a James Purnell unless he or she is certain others will jump too.

HYUFD said:

Hammersmith Pub to be renamed 'the Trump Arms' next week during the presidential visit by Irish-born landlord Damien Smyth and his New Yorker wife Marian.

Steve Bannon and Nigel Farage have been invited to a welcome party with hot dogs and cheeseburgers and Trump-themed cocktails and costumes and banners and music recreating the atmosphere of a Trump rally.

Tickets cost £32 a head

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/pub-renamed-trump-arms-for-presidential-visit-a3879986.html?amp

Will the pub last another year ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

Maybe you should email her and let her know how much you'll win if she did. I'm sure that'd help her see sense.

It's not about money, call me old fashioned but when a Minister repeatedly misleads the Commons they should quit.

They've seen it as part of their job, for a long time now.

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

What happens if people resign at the same time?

Dead heat rules kick in.

So if 2 ministers resign on the same day you get half your winnings, if 3 quit, you get a third of your winnings, if 4 quit you get a quarter of your winnings, so on so forth.

I know you know, but not totally clear from that that you mean that fraction of winnings including stake

So if say 4 ministers resign you get 1/4 of your stake back and win 1/4 of your winnings . . . while simultaneously losing 3/4 of your stake?

Philip_Thompson said:

JonnyJimmy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

What happens if people resign at the same time?

Dead heat rules kick in.

So if 2 ministers resign on the same day you get half your winnings, if 3 quit, you get a third of your winnings, if 4 quit you get a quarter of your winnings, so on so forth.

I know you know, but not totally clear from that that you mean that fraction of winnings including stake

So if say 4 ministers resign you get 1/4 of your stake back and win 1/4 of your winnings . . . while simultaneously losing 3/4 of your stake?

Correct.
1/4 of your stake would win and 3/4 of your stake would lose.

O/T Macron's ratings collapse suggests that one term is as good as it gets, for a French President.

Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

surby said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fox off?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1014935568919203842

I thought May was having separate meetings with key cabinet ministers before tomorrow.

"key" being the operative word. Fox's goose is cooked?

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Esther McVey had any sense of shame or decency she'd quit now.

I see why she lost her seat now, even as the Tories gained a majority.

anothernick said:

Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.

nunuone said:

anothernick said:

Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.

Not this again... Tying the government’s hands was voted down, but nothing prevents the government from staying in the single market.

nunuone said:

anothernick said:

Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.

The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.

Theuniondivvie said:

Objecting to freedom of expression? It's political correctness gone mad I tells ye.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1014933261817171969

Farage wasn't around when George W Bush visited in 2003.

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1014946608256110592?s=19

I reckon cocked up conspiracy.

FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

CarlottaVance said:

FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

Indeed. It’s up to Spain if they think that having thousands of Brits spending their pensions in their country is a good thing or not.

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

nunuone said:

anothernick said:

Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.

The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.

that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

I quite agree. The EU has a much better functioning government, but Westminster has now taken back control, with Henry VIII powers in addition.

Hang on to your seats, its going to be a bumpy ride.

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

Indeed. It’s up to Spain if they think that having thousands of Brits spending their pensions in their country is a good thing or not.

I guess that Spain will continue to welcome younger, fitter pensioners but since they will no longer be eligible for free healthcare all except the very rich will return to the UK in their final years in order to access the NHS.

williamglenn said:

nunuone said:

anothernick said:

Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.

Not this again... Tying the government’s hands was voted down, but nothing prevents the government from staying in the single market.

The amendment to pursue staying in the single market was voted down by 327 votes to 126

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/eu-withdrawal-bill-mps-reject-eea-membership-after-brexit-in-key-vote-11404084

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too

Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.

CarlottaVance said:

FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT 'Ending free movement means no more pensioners retiring to Spain' - not so - the process will change, but other non-EU nationals (such as Americans or Australians) already retire there:

https://transferwise.com/gb/blog/guide-to-retiring-in-spain

What will end is the right to retire there. That's quite a big deal.

There is no 'right to retire' guaranteed by the EU - what the EU guarantees is a 'freedom of movement of labour' - not 'pensioners'. After we've left presumably British retirees will enjoy the same rights as American or Australian ones. People were retiring to Spain before it joined the EU - and will continue to do so after we leave.

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too

Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.

Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.

What could Trump possibly have in common with a rable rousing demagogue who spouts meaningless platitudes?

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1014921770577616897

Theuniondivvie said:

Objecting to freedom of expression? It's political correctness gone mad I tells ye.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1014933261817171969

There is freedom of expression - and there is just childishness. Surprising City Hall allowed it.

Surely there are more grown up ways to protest against Trump?L

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too

Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.

Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.

No hand holding though. Also pretty sure Jezza wouldn't get dragged into the alpha male, arm wrestling handshake.

O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

Sean_F said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

nunuone said:

anothernick said:

Speaking to a city fund manager today who had just returned from a recce trip to Brussels. He was surprised to find that there was a high level of preparedness for no deal - thick manuals for various industrial sectors apparently. He was told that the EU thinks it's far too late to begin talking about a bespoke deal even in the unlikely event of the UK government being able to agree on what it wants to put in such a deal. So it was either no deal, a Canada type FTA with an Irish Sea customs border or full participation in the single market. No other options are practical.

single market was voted down with a massive majority in Parliament.

The problem is that we all know what the vote was against, no one knows what it was for.

I compared it to Suez, but Suez was at least well planned on the military side, just incompetently on the political side.

that's because the establishment couldn't think of anything positive FOR the EU

all Brexit tells us is the numpties who run the country should have less jurisdiction in our every day lives since they cant organise a piss up in a urinal

I quite agree. The EU has a much better functioning government, but Westminster has now taken back control, with Henry VIII powers in addition.

Hang on to your seats, its going to be a bumpy ride.

I fear it is. The city contact I mentioned earlier was visibly nervous when talking about the EU's preparations for no deal. The financial community has been unanimously of the view that a no deal outcome was so damaging and stupid that it could not possibly happen. No sane government could possibly contemplate it. But we don't have a sane government, or indeed any government, we have some people in various offices of state but they cannot be said to be governing. If no deal looks like becoming a reality there will be panic in the city and it will not be pretty.

Perhaps neither side wants a deal.

It would be consistent with neither side wanting a Brexit.

Mortimer said:

O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

To ensure the comments flow properly make sure you are logged into Vanilla even if you don't intend to post. If you are not registered with Vanilla then do so

brendan16 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Objecting to freedom of expression? It's political correctness gone mad I tells ye.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1014933261817171969

There is freedom of expression - and there is just childishness. Surprising City Hall allowed it.

Surely there are more grown up ways to protest against Trump?L

Freedom of expression means individuals get to decide how childish they want their language to be, not politicians.

MikeSmithson said:

Mortimer said:

O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

To ensure the comments flow properly make sure you are logged into Vanilla even if you don't intend to post. If you are not registered with Vanilla then do so

Thanks Mike.

Mortimer said:

O/T, and especially for the attention of @rcs1000

I've been experiencing very weird behaviour re comments variously showing with a large delay (up to 90 minutes), and no persisting of login on an iphone 8, chrome or safari.

I've seen others make similar comments. Anyone know any solution?

I've had the same thing. Log back in and the up to date comment re-appear as if by magic.

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

So if The Government collapses over the weekend, gets No Confidenced Tuesday, Corbyn gets to attempt a minority government and goes to the Palace on Wednesday, then he would be the PM greeting Trump on Thursday.

Almost worth doing for the LOL's!

Then Corbyn would have to deal with Brexit and his just as divided party.

Plus Trump has shown himself ready to deal with Lopez Obrador so no reason he could not deal with Corbyn too

Yes, but the prospect of Jezza giving Trump a lesson in Jam making is too good to miss.

Trump might get on better with Corbyn than May. Arguably she is more a polar opposite than he.

I'd love it if we got a tweet from Donald along the lines of 'Just met with UK Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. Great guy. Agree on so much about international/economic affairs. Looking forward to doing business with'.