politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU

2nd

Have a good wedding

And no - Brexit will not be stopped by legal challenges - far too late

Philip_Thompson said:

There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.

Ironic...

I wonder whether a possible change of leadership in Germany might cause Brexit to be delayed in a way that no-one is currently predicting.

Quality goal!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Have a good wedding

And no - Brexit will not be stopped by legal challenges - far too late

And certainly not because of an investigation into spending by the leave campaign or its offshoots by the Electoral Commission when remain (including HM govt) reportedly spent about £15 million more on its campaign. If there had truly been a fair campaign money wise leave would probably have won
by more.

Philip_Thompson said:

There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.

Hedge fund Gina deserves a great deal of thanks for helping to secure Brexit!

Does the UK export more autoparts to the EU than the other way round? That is what will define whihc sector grows more.

brendan16 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.

Hedge fund Gina deserves a great deal of thanks for helping to secure Brexit!

I think she deserves thanks for bringing what was a worthy case, regardless of it helping to secure Brexit or not. OGH is I think getting a little excited, considering elections are not automatically invalidated entirely because of financial irregularities (which should be punished, the rules are the rules after all), and that as any number of people on either side have pointed out to their advantage at times, the referendum was advisory. Of course it was the reason the Act was passed, but it's now up to the MPs to decide to repeal it if they think this news undermines the reason they voted for the Act in the first place.

FPT:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1010193597508046849?s=21

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1010193597508046849?s=21

Shame there aren't more nuanced polls more often. Where is "less unskilled migration but more and easier skilled migration" as an option?

We currently have a cap on skilled non-EU migration (including doctors etc) but no cap on EU migration regardless of skills. Nobody ever surveys whether having no cap at all on skilled migration (from EU and non-EU both) is a good idea.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1010198479363244032

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/thetimes/status/1010198479363244032

The fact that China and the US are mentioned before elsewhere in the EU is telling.

Not good enough from Iceland.

More testimony to the sound sense of the British:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1010198002991075328?s=20

FrancisUrquhart said:

St Paul's Girls' School 'Austerity Day' criticised

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499

Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....

I can see precisely nothing wrong with this.

I think the offence is just being a private school.

Miss Vance, with the exception of House of Cards (itself aping a UK TV programme/book), US depictions of fictional presidents tend to be inspirational. UK fictional PMs are largely villains or fools. Urquhart or Hacker.

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

St Paul's Girls' School 'Austerity Day' criticised

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499

Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....

I can see precisely nothing wrong with this.

I think the offence is just being a private school.

Food is cheap in this country.

The issue with austerity is housing costs.

That might have been a better item for a west London school to focus upon.

Difficult to know what to believe any more but I don't expect Time magazine will be too concerned:

' A little girl who became the public face of US migrant family separations was not taken away from her mother at the US border, says her father.

A photograph of the Honduran toddler sobbing in a pink jacket was taken at the scene of a border detention.

Time magazine has used the image for its latest cover, depicting President Donald Trump looming over the girl with the caption: "Welcome to America".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44578339

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.

I assume in this scenario we all get free vodka to vote for him? Could work.

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.

Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.

That is some imagination

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.

Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change

It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921

CarlottaVance said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1010193597508046849?s=21

Shame there aren't more nuanced polls more often. Where is "less unskilled migration but more and easier skilled migration" as an option?

We currently have a cap on skilled non-EU migration (including doctors etc) but no cap on EU migration regardless of skills. Nobody ever surveys whether having no cap at all on skilled migration (from EU and non-EU both) is a good idea.

Surely to heavens our experience with EU negotiations so far has shown that it’s pointless to make “generous” offers (security, defence) - the EU simply banks them and says “more”. We should start from “Eu is a third country” (as they never tire of telling us we are) and say “any improvement contingent on trade deal” - rather than the fatuous “if we’re generous on immigration they’ll be nice to us on trade.”

If I were negotiating with the EU I would be leaving open the possibility of a second referendum. That would mean they would have to be more careful to court public opinion. At the moment we are not playing the advantages we do have. I would also be negotiating the no deal WTO situation as default - it would then mean that "things could only get better"

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.

Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change

It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921

You really do not get it. It would have to be someone acceptable to both sides and Ken Clarke has no chance of that. You may as well appoint Juncker though you probably would

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.

I prefer the scenario where the Queen Mother is revealed not to have died, is absolved of her involvement in the assassination of Princess Diana (they never did find that white Fiat), extolles her daughter to summon the Dunkirk spirit and put Britain on a wartime footing - after seeing both their food exports and food imports rot at Holyhead, Ireland sues the EU to settle on terms dictated by Prime Minister Gove, who sadly is shortly thereafter taken from us after an accident on an Aberdeen fishing boat. Prime Minister Javid then comes out as gay and the Labour Front Bench spontaneously combusts...

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

Both Remainers - would create fury - not going to happen

Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise

And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

Both Remainers - would create fury - not going to happen

Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise

And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise

Remainers can compromise by giving up on Dave's Deal, and Leavers can compromise by giving up on Brexit. That way nobody gets what they were campaigning for in the referendum.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

Both Remainers - would create fury - not going to happen

Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise

And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise

I’m not expecting any compromise. I’m not expecting either side to be happy either. I expect continuing bitter conflict on the subject for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, in enlightened cosmopolitan Europe:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1010213353539690496?s=20

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

williamglenn said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

It's important to bear in mind that May has a penchant for dramatised set piece interventions. There's a common thread running all the way from the nasty party speech through to the snap election. She will have plans for a game changer of her own, but we just don't know what it is yet.

Good observation. I hope you are right.

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

Bartender! I’ll have one of what he’s having - but make mine a single...

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.

I prefer the scenario where the Queen Mother is revealed not to have died, is absolved of her involvement in the assassination of Princess Diana (they never did find that white Fiat), extolles her daughter to summon the Dunkirk spirit and put Britain on a wartime footing - after seeing both their food exports and food imports rot at Holyhead, Ireland sues the EU to settle on terms dictated by Prime Minister Gove, who sadly is shortly thereafter taken from us after an accident on an Aberdeen fishing boat. Prime Minister Javid then comes out as gay and the Labour Front Bench spontaneously combusts...

Now now children. This is serious.

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Leaving with an unprepared crashout might honour the referendum result but would be completely insane. It would be parliament's duty to prevent that.

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

It's important to bear in mind that May has a penchant for dramatised set piece interventions. There's a common thread running all the way from the nasty party speech through to the snap election. She will have plans for a game changer of her own, but we just don't know what it is yet.

Mrs May’s “game changers” have had, at best, “mixed” results....

Have they? Which one was mixed?

The ones I remember were all disasters.

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

“The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “

Will of the People - that must be the Duke of Cambridge.

I will get my coat because I have to go out. Have a good evening.

AlastairMeeks said:

My favourite market of the last year.

For what it's worth I'd have thought there's no better than a 1 in 6 chance of the date being put back, and probably much lower than that.

I reckon an A50 extension is a definite possibility, so have banked my profit on this market.

I suspect that May will eat humble pie and sign up to the EU27 Deal in the end. She doesnt want tobe at the wheel when the crash happens.

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.

I think William Glenn is going to have some private "quiet time" with this post later this evening.

tlg86 said:

Serbia 1-0 Kosovo.

Kosovo?

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.

Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change

It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921

How pissed did Ken Clarke sound in that clip?

Didn't Ken Clarke say in his autobiography that he's consumed alcohol every day for over fifty years ?

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

Farage certainly would, UKIP would be on 30% in the polls within a week and Farage could 'reluctantly' re enter the fray as UKIP leader to represent 'the people' against the political elite

https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/1010176459401584648?s=21

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Whilst there is some truth in your last line, I doubt it is as plain, simple or one-dimensional as that. People - and especially successful multinational companies - usually weigh up a whole load of factors when making decisions or statements.

They generally don't just spout any old sh*te off the top of their heads based on headlines. We can leave that to politicians.

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

“The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “

Josef Goebbels. The Nazis considered themselves to be the embodiment of the will of the people since they created their dictatorship and the position of fuhrer through the use of referenda. Their most famous propaganda film was called Triumph of the Will. And of course they arraigned their political opponents in show trials conducted in Peoples' Courts (a name also used for the courts which conducted Stalin's show trials).

Those who claim to be embodying the will of the people should be more aware of the uncomfortable history of this claim.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Perhaps the UK Government should float the idea of a law to the effect that the flag of the main country of manufacture of every car built post Brexit should by law be displayed on the vehicle.

If it's assembled in the UK of entirely French parts, is that a British car?