politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Losing today’s Brexit vote could prove fatal for Mrs. May’s pr

bigjohnowls said:

1st like Jezza next time

TheScreamingEagles said:

This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

If the Government lost today's vote and May went Brexiteer Tory MPs and Tory members would ensure a tougher Brexiteer like Boris, Gove or Mogg replaced her as PM and Tory leader to see down the Tory rebels.

I expect both Grieve and Soubry would be deselected by their Tory Associations within a month.

However I think May will scrape home thanks to the votes of Labour Leave rebels like Field, Hoey, Mann and Stringer

If losing the vote would lead to a Brexiteer PM, that's a good reason for Labour leavers to vote with their party.

But yes, it seems likely May will win this one.

TheScreamingEagles said:

It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

Hurrah for Mrs May.

TheScreamingEagles said:

It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

Hurrah for Mrs May.

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

Or not.

The original vote to take the UK into the EEC was more important - and was also carried by Labour rebels neutralising the effect of their Tory counterparts.

Also:

The Iraq War vote;
The 1979 confidence vote;
Howe's resignation speech;

To name three. There are probably examples from 1945-70 too but my history is a bit more sketchy there.

As an aside, Chamberlain 'won' the vote on the Norway debate.

Chamberlain won the battle but lost the war.

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

Hurrah for Mrs May.

Some people keep forgetting the golden rule of Brexit...

DavidL said:

Goodman's tweet emphasises what is at stake here. The pressure on Tory rebels will be immense. I expect a reasonably comfortable victory for May for that reason. Surely no one wants the chaos of a leadership election at this point.

Like @Alastair_Meeks I am having some trouble working out how the Lords amendment is supposed to work in the real world anyway. It seems to work on the hypothesis that Parliament will have choices which will not in fact exist and are not in our gift. Which is a bit silly if you think about it.

Tessie dropped me an e-mail this morning telling me that she had given the NHS a birthday present that she was going to fund with money from the EU contributions and a tax increase. I'm sure that is just a coincidence.

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

Or not.

The original vote to take the UK into the EEC was more important - and was also carried by Labour rebels neutralising the effect of their Tory counterparts.

Also:

The Iraq War vote;
The 1979 confidence vote;
Howe's resignation speech;

To name three. There are probably examples from 1945-70 too but my history is a bit more sketchy there.

As an aside, Chamberlain 'won' the vote on the Norway debate.

Chamberlain won the battle but lost the war.

As with all things it is the size of the rebellion.

bigjohnowls said:

DavidL said:

Goodman's tweet emphasises what is at stake here. The pressure on Tory rebels will be immense. I expect a reasonably comfortable victory for May for that reason. Surely no one wants the chaos of a leadership election at this point.

Like @Alastair_Meeks I am having some trouble working out how the Lords amendment is supposed to work in the real world anyway. It seems to work on the hypothesis that Parliament will have choices which will not in fact exist and are not in our gift. Which is a bit silly if you think about it.

Tessie dropped me an e-mail this morning telling me that she had given the NHS a birthday present that she was going to fund with money from the EU contributions and a tax increase. I'm sure that is just a coincidence.

Did she tell you which taxes or ask you to help her find the Magic Money Tree

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, it turns out Varadkar reversing Kenny's policy of co-operative action, capitulation from May, and being undermined by the Lords et al. hasn't led to the best possible outcome. Whoever would have guessed it?

Almost like sending the opening pair out only to discover the captain's broken their bats.

But you Leavers said it would be easy.

That they needed us more than we needed them.

I said it was bollocks at the time.

bigjohnowls said:

Which Tories will vote with Grieve?

Clarke and Soubry from last week

Woolaston, Grieve, that bloke who resigned last week to abstain.

Anyone else

Richard_Nabavi said:

The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

AndyJS said:

"'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

AndyJS said:

"'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

Richard_Nabavi said:

The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But it's now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and is moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

Slackbladder said:

AndyJS said:

"'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

AndyJS said:

"'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?

If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

I think your understandable frustration is getting the better of you Richard. I see very little evidence of damage yet on either side of the channel. But the risk is still there and this obsession with re-arguing the principle instead of focussing on the best deal is tiresome.

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

AndyJS said:

"'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?

If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.

It certainly is a hit. Lord only knows why though.

Perhaps it is popular in Leaverstan.

Richard_Nabavi said:

bigjohnowls said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

You were a we hold all the carder

What went wrong?

No I wasn't.

I did think last December that the signs were looking somewhat encouraging, but we seem to have gone backwards since then.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

AndyJS said:

"'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?

If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think your understandable frustration is getting the better of you Richard. I see very little evidence of damage yet on either side of the channel. But the risk is still there and this obsession with re-arguing the principle instead of focussing on the best deal is tiresome.

It's true that currently the damage is limited - we'll end up at the end of this year with GDP somewhere between 1.5% and 2.5% less than trend. That's not good, of course, but it's not the end of the world if it's a temporary blip. However, the prospect of a good deal for the City has now receded, and in any case it's too late. So there will be further seepage over the next few years. So I don't think we'll ever get that lost growth back, and we'll probably have several years of underperformance.

Of course that isn't the worst-case scenario - it's the car manufacturing industry which is most at risk. I'm cautiously optimistic that some customs arrangement will be found to avoid massive damage on that score, but the risk remains substantial..

DavidL said:

There are a lot of things that affect trend growth, most of them much more important than Brexit. We are still trying to reduce a serious deficit, for example. We kept growth going by having increasingly loose lending and there are signs that even the great British consumer is borrowed out. We are still, even now, messing about with essential infrastructure like Heathrow. Since the start of the year our trading partners in the EU seem to be suffering a slow down. Trump is being a complete arse, even by his low standards, in relation to tariffs.

To say that we have not met trend growth in the 2 years leading up to Brexit, therefore Brexit is the cause, is far too simplistic. I do agree that we seem to have gone backwards since December in the negotiations though.

Cyclefree said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AndyJS said:

"'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

That was the Guardian's main criticism of JezFest...

And what if they are funny? Is that now an irrelevant consideration? Who cares where they were educated, what sex they are or the colour of their skin. What matters is whether they are funny.

Had the BBC paid more attention to that it would not be commissioning the execrable Mrs Brown’s Boys.

bigjohnowls said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

You were a we hold all the carder

What went wrong?

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have just thought of another recent hit BBC comedy, Car Share. Not for me, but very popular. I much preferred Phoenix Nights.

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

There are a lot of things that affect trend growth, most of them much more important than Brexit. We are still trying to reduce a serious deficit, for example. We kept growth going by having increasingly loose lending and there are signs that even the great British consumer is borrowed out. We are still, even now, messing about with essential infrastructure like Heathrow. Since the start of the year our trading partners in the EU seem to be suffering a slow down. Trump is being a complete arse, even by his low standards, in relation to tariffs.

To say that we have not met trend growth in the 2 years leading up to Brexit, therefore Brexit is the cause, is far too simplistic. I do agree that we seem to have gone backwards since December in the negotiations though.

In economics you don't get to be able to rerun the experiment with a different reality, but I think the evidence for the effect I described is overwhelming. The key metric is to look at how well we were doing relative to other similar economies pre-referendum, and compare it with how well we've been doing in the last year or so. It's a pretty stark contrast.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, for some, 'diversity' trumps competence. There's been some furore over comments Shriver made regarding Penguin's drive for diversity, including Shriver being axed from a judging panel.

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1008363778474496005

On a more minor note, last year I was attacked somewhat on Twitter for my apparently odious claim that books should be judged on quality, not the demographics of the author (but I would say that, being an evil white man...).