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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Losing today’s Brexit vote could prove fatal for Mrs. May’s pr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Losing today’s Brexit vote could prove fatal for Mrs. May’s premiership
After the Brexit bill defeat for the government on the in the Lords on Monday the issue is now back in the commons and there’ll be a big vote on whether to accept what the Lord’s decided.
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CON: 38% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)
via @BMGResearch, 05 - 08 Jun
Chgs. w/ 04 May
I expect both Grieve and Soubry would be deselected by their Tory Associations within a month.
However I think May will scrape home thanks to the votes of Labour Leave rebels like Field, Hoey, Mann and Stringer
Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn?
But yes, it seems likely May will win this one.
If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.
Hurrah for Mrs May.
The original vote to take the UK into the EEC was more important - and was also carried by Labour rebels neutralising the effect of their Tory counterparts.
Also:
The Iraq War vote;
The 1979 confidence vote;
Howe's resignation speech;
To name three. There are probably examples from 1945-70 too but my history is a bit more sketchy there.
As an aside, Chamberlain 'won' the vote on the Norway debate.
As with all things it is the size of the rebellion.
And there are enough Labour rebels to help her out.
Close, sure. Maybe Govt by 2....
I mean I remember the same PB Leavers who now say we should prepare for No Deal/WTO saying prior to the referendum that no deal was Project Fear.
Almost like sending the opening pair out only to discover the captain's broken their bats.
So let's all predict the Government to win, on that basis.
Like @Alastair_Meeks I am having some trouble working out how the Lords amendment is supposed to work in the real world anyway. It seems to work on the hypothesis that Parliament will have choices which will not in fact exist and are not in our gift. Which is a bit silly if you think about it.
Tessie dropped me an e-mail this morning telling me that she had given the NHS a birthday present that she was going to fund with money from the EU contributions and a tax increase. I'm sure that is just a coincidence.
Clarke and Soubry from last week
Woolaston, Grieve, that bloke who resigned last week to abstain.
Anyone else
That they needed us more than we needed them.
I said it was bollocks at the time.
Sad to watch a country go down in flames.
One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But it's now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and is moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.
Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.
"And as a country taxpayers will have to contribute a bit more for the NHS in a fair and balanced way."
So that would be a no then. Her style's not exactly chatty is it?
It really won't be!
Some people actually believed we did.
Funny but sad what power the right wing press have.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/
The EU has not acted sincerely or fairly, May has dithered and capitulated, and Grieve et al have given more thought to the side facing the UK across the negotiating table.
The Establishment is deliberately acting to try and dilute, delay and, if possible, prevent our departure by making the pain as much as possible so the alternative seems better. I predicted this as a credible outcome, along with the possibility of a second referendum (between the terrible deal negotiated and remaining in after all), as did others, quite some time ago.
Then a decent number from Oliver Heald, Paul Masterson, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Mark Pawsey Justine Greening, Vicky Ford, Jeremy LeFroy, Ed Vaizey - some of whom may abstain.
And if anyone like Tom Tugendhat doesn't support the govt, the writing is probably on the wall.
What went wrong?
Furthermore, you said yourself that you wanted to leave but in 10 years' time. The bizarre notion a decade of deeper integration would make leaving easier is the kind of triangulating nonsense, murmuring sceptical noises and making EU-phile decisions, that got the political class to drag the country (without asking the electorate) so far from its preferred position.
I did think last December that the signs were looking somewhat encouraging, but we seem to have gone backwards since then.
If May loses, it’s time for a leadership election.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/20/carbon-dioxide-shortage-threatens-fizzy-drink-beer-sales/
Whilst I’m no fan of economic and monetary union it is crazy to have that and not political union.
Plus we’d have left with several other countries which would have made things easier.
Should win with Lab. leave help then presumably?
I see SeanF reckons 10-16
Mortimer 2
What would be your guess given 5 Labour leavers vote with the Government somewhere between the 2?
A decade of deeper integration would've made leaving far harder. Most other countries are in the euro or on track to join it.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, happy concord that we can agree on Mrs Brown's Boys. The laugh alone is blood-boilingly annoying.
Perhaps it is popular in Leaverstan.
Of course that isn't the worst-case scenario - it's the car manufacturing industry which is most at risk. I'm cautiously optimistic that some customs arrangement will be found to avoid massive damage on that score, but the risk remains substantial..
In fact, it was funnier than Mrs Brown's Boys itself ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5864503/Paris-terror-suspect-Salah-Abdeslam-rushed-hospital.html
Don't rush, take your time treating him.
John Cleese slams Belgians as 'lazy, fat, beer-sodden, pseudo-French b******s' as he says audience in the country was worst of his latest tour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5864309/John-Cleese-slams-Belgians-lazy-fat-beer-sodden-pseudo-French-b-s.html
1. The Class system
2. People stuck in places and situations which frustrate them
Both of which aren't in line with 'modern' thinking.
I'm not a fan of Mrs Brown's Boys, but having seen how much pleasure it gives to a lot of people, I'm not going to be sniffy about it. Different people like different things.
To say that we have not met trend growth in the 2 years leading up to Brexit, therefore Brexit is the cause, is far too simplistic. I do agree that we seem to have gone backwards since December in the negotiations though.
Detectorists is in with a shout.
Had the BBC paid more attention to that it would not be commissioning the execrable Mrs Brown’s Boys.
At least if we have a no deal then we don't have to give them a penny.
If there is no middle ground between vassal state and no deal, I think the British people will say "no deal".
As was suggested the other day it probably ends the union as we know it and leaves an rump England & Wales out of the EU long term, with a united ireland and Scotland on fast track to the euro and a hard border at Berwick.
Still, freedom has it's price, and we shouldn't flinch from paying it.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1008363778474496005
On a more minor note, last year I was attacked somewhat on Twitter for my apparently odious claim that books should be judged on quality, not the demographics of the author (but I would say that, being an evil white man...).
I liked Gavin and Stacey first time round but less so when I’ve seen repeats. Most of the comedy panel shows are dire - the jokes being obvious and predictable.
And the one thing which probably affects your chances in Britain more than any other - class - is all too often ignored.
https://unherd.com/2018/04/diversity-debate-left-white-working-classes-behind/
I expect a much smaller impact once that’s all settled down (by 2021) and an imperceptible difference between the UK pre-Brexit and post-Brexit trends by c.2030.
I thought you were a big cheerleader of his.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/asylfrage-kurz-und-soeder-loben-gemeinsame-haltung-15649615.html
Has vanilla switched the quotes ?