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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should give great succour to Trump

SystemSystem Posts: 12,550
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should give great succour to Trump

Ahead of the G7 summit it is worth noting Donald Trump has the second highest 'own party' approval rating after 500 days of any US president in Gallup's archive. Only post 9/11 George W Bush is higher. pic.twitter.com/nZL9nBuUUT

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,848
    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,848
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    5 point drop in the first year of his presidency:
    https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/trumps-victory-1-year-later/data-republican-party-id-drops-after-trump-election-n828141

    What were the comparable figures for Bush ?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,730
    Impressive certainly - but Trump won independents last time and will need to do so again I'd have thought.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

    https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

    driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

    Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    CarlottaVance said:

    I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

    twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

    driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

    This post makes the assumption that A C Grayling, a man so narcissistic he founded a new university college dedicated entirely to showcasing his own brilliant (umm) thoughts, was sane to start with.

    May I ask what evidence you have for this assumption?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Most of that trade deficit is with us though is it not? TTIP would have neutered all this as retaliatory tariffs would have been removed from an executive function.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    On topic, that might secure Trump the nomination but it's swing voters who will decide the election. That's what crippled George H. Bush, especially after his health scares and the recession caused by breaking his 'read my lips' promise.

    Do you have any polling on them?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    CarlottaVance said:

    I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

    https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

    driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

    Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20


    It’s becoming pathological.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    On Trump's beef with Canada over dairy:

    As the trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, has pointed out, trade data flatly contradicts the claim that Canadian supply management is ravaging US dairyland – either because it unfairly restricts imports or because it dumps a subsidized surplus in US markets. In 2016, Canada imported dairy products from the US worth five times more than the small amount it exported there. “I would call that a pretty good deal,” she told the House of Commons.

    Canadian farmers point out that despite the tariffs that protect them, imports make up 10% of the country’s dairy consumption. By contrast, the US restricts dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption. “That just screams hypocrisy to me,” Muirhead said. “I don’t understand how they can get away with these positions.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/jun/09/milk-canada-us-trade-war

    As ever, your own countries failure to tackle issues (in the US case de-regulated dairy driving down prices and hence farm incomes) are more easily blamed on others....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?
    They are at the local public (as in not private) elementary school. Now, granted, I live in a nice part of town, albeit nowhere near as fancy as Beverley Hills, Malibu, Bel Air, Hancock Park or even Calabasas or Westlake.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited June 2018
    notme said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

    https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

    driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

    Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20


    It’s becoming pathological.
    Equally, no lead for “Right” - so why do Brexiteers keep talking as if they represent the “will of (all) the people”?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    notme said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Most of that trade deficit is with us though is it not? TTIP would have neutered all this as retaliatory tariffs would have been removed from an executive function.
    Depends on what you're looking at (and who is doing the measuring - the EU and US have different figures), but in goods which seems to obsess Trump most, in 2018 to date on US data they are currently running a surplus with the UK of +$3bn (last year +$3bn) and a deficit with Germany of -$22bn (last year -$64bn).

    https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    Trump seems intent on driving the Europeans into the arms of China. That seems an odd goal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.
    I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?
    They are at the local public (as in not private) elementary school. Now, granted, I live in a nice part of town, albeit nowhere near as fancy as Beverley Hills, Malibu, Bel Air, Hancock Park or even Calabasas or Westlake.
    Why? It seems from your link that there are more private schools in the area than public, albeit it may be that the private schools are smaller. Does this not make the public schools less attractive in that many of the more able and driven pupils will have been drained off? That's what people contend here for grammar schools and also seems to be a bit of a problem in Edinburgh.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    notme said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

    https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

    driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

    Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20


    It’s becoming pathological.
    "we're undergoing a coup"

    Yes, Mr Grayling, you and your ilk, who have always known best have been told where to go, by the rest of the people you share our country with. It must be galling, after getting your own way for so long, to be thwarted....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

    Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?
    They are at the local public (as in not private) elementary school. Now, granted, I live in a nice part of town, albeit nowhere near as fancy as Beverley Hills, Malibu, Bel Air, Hancock Park or even Calabasas or Westlake.
    Why? It seems from your link that there are more private schools in the area than public, albeit it may be that the private schools are smaller. Does this not make the public schools less attractive in that many of the more able and driven pupils will have been drained off? That's what people contend here for grammar schools and also seems to be a bit of a problem in Edinburgh.
    There are lots of private schools in my part of LA because it's near the intersections of the three most important roads in the city: the 405, the 10 and the 101. Pretty much every major LA private school is within a mile of where those freeways meet. They don't draw (much) from the local demographic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.
    I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?
    Why wouldn't he? I think that he would be quite content to remove the last vestiges of US armed forces from Europe. Although a shadow of what they once were there are still almost 35K troops in Germany and 65k in Europe overall. If Europe did meet its 2% obligation Russia would be no threat to Europe at all and they could go home allowing the military expenditure to be diverted to the Pacific where it is actually needed.

    The additional expenditure on the military is not the reason for the trade deficits but it doesn't help.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    CarlottaVance said:

    On Trump's beef with Canada over dairy:

    As the trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, has pointed out, trade data flatly contradicts the claim that Canadian supply management is ravaging US dairyland – either because it unfairly restricts imports or because it dumps a subsidized surplus in US markets. In 2016, Canada imported dairy products from the US worth five times more than the small amount it exported there. “I would call that a pretty good deal,” she told the House of Commons.

    Canadian farmers point out that despite the tariffs that protect them, imports make up 10% of the country’s dairy consumption. By contrast, the US restricts dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption. “That just screams hypocrisy to me,” Muirhead said. “I don’t understand how they can get away with these positions.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/jun/09/milk-canada-us-trade-war

    As ever, your own countries failure to tackle issues (in the US case de-regulated dairy driving down prices and hence farm incomes) are more easily blamed on others....

    Is lying about your dairy imports the reverse cowgirl position?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

    Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

    Isn't the FBI asking something quite similar?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

    Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

    None of those countries have nuclear weapons and no one on the planet (other than the US of course) has as many nuclear weapons as Russia.

    Personally, though, I agree. As I have said on here before Russia is a relatively minor power economically dependent upon commodities to keep it going. It may be a threat to the Baltic states and it is a bad neighbour but the idea that it is a genuine threat to western Europe is a bit of a joke. Putin does a very good impression of being more important than he really is and the best way to deal with him is to ignore him as much as possible.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,079
    Trump approval rating, split by Party - biggest drop is amongst Independents.


    Republicans Independents Democrats

    2018 May 28-Jun 3 87 34 11
    2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13

    http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?
    They are at the local public (as in not private) elementary school. Now, granted, I live in a nice part of town, albeit nowhere near as fancy as Beverley Hills, Malibu, Bel Air, Hancock Park or even Calabasas or Westlake.
    Why? It seems from your link that there are more private schools in the area than public, albeit it may be that the private schools are smaller. Does this not make the public schools less attractive in that many of the more able and driven pupils will have been drained off? That's what people contend here for grammar schools and also seems to be a bit of a problem in Edinburgh.
    There are lots of private schools in my part of LA because it's near the intersections of the three most important roads in the city: the 405, the 10 and the 101. Pretty much every major LA private school is within a mile of where those freeways meet. They don't draw (much) from the local demographic.
    Interesting. Didn't know that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.
    I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?
    Indeed so, although EU defence spending (inc UK) is less that half what the US spends for a larger population.

    There’s also no way Trump is ever going to cut defence spending in the US because of the massive number of jobs it supports - and the propensity of the vast majority of them to vote Republican.

    Britain is lucky that we have pretty balanced trade with the US, thus keeping us off Trump’s radar - unlike Germany and China.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    edited June 2018
    logical_song said:

    Trump approval rating, split by Party - biggest drop is amongst Independents.


    Republicans Independents Democrats

    2018 May 28-Jun 3 87 34 11
    2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13

    http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

    That is truly astonishing. A small rise among Republicans is unsurprising, but among Democrats as well? (Edit - oops, misread the year. The world stops rocking on its axis!!)

    That said, those Independent figures look a killer. He's not likely to hold Pennsylvania or Wisconsin on those numbers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    edited June 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    ydoethur said:

    logical_song said:

    Trump approval rating, split by Party - biggest drop is amongst Independents.


    Republicans Independents Democrats

    2018 May 28-Jun 3 87 34 11
    2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13

    http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

    That is truly astonishing. A small rise among Republicans is unsurprising, but among Democrats as well? (Edit - oops, misread the year. The world stops rocking on its axis!!)

    That said, those Independent figures look a killer. He's not likely to hold Pennsylvania or Wisconsin on those numbers.
    Or Florida. If he loses all of those in 2020 then he’s out (assuming he runs, which is still think is 50-50 at best. Trump will make up an excuse not to run if it looks like he will lose)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,906
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.
    I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?
    I cant see the Germans doing anything much, it's hard to get a zimmer frame into your tank.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    It seems a common problem this year that overtaking seems more difficult than ever, at least amongst the cars which are competitive. Despite the long power straights DRS did not seem to help and we are left with a high speed procession unless someone screws up a pit stop. Its pretty dull.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    Historically low "Identifies Republican" figures. (Also pretty low Identifies Democrat as well to be fair)

    In the 2010 and 2014 mid terms the generic ballot was neck and neck in June/July. Republicans didn't pull massively ahead until September/October.

    In October a lot of people will be renewing their health insurance. Premiums will be rocketing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
    Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,079
    ydoethur said:

    logical_song said:

    Trump approval rating, split by Party - biggest drop is amongst Independents.


    Republicans Independents Democrats

    2018 May 28-Jun 3 87 34 11
    2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13

    http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

    That is truly astonishing. A small rise among Republicans is unsurprising, but among Democrats as well? (Edit - oops, misread the year. The world stops rocking on its axis!!)

    That said, those Independent figures look a killer. He's not likely to hold Pennsylvania or Wisconsin on those numbers.
    You're looking at the dates the wrong way round. Between Jan 2017 and May/Jun 2018
    Republicans down 2%
    Democrats down 2%
    Independents down 8%

    Sorry the spacing lost something when I posted it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    logical_song said:

    Trump approval rating, split by Party - biggest drop is amongst Independents.


    Republicans Independents Democrats

    2018 May 28-Jun 3 87 34 11
    2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13

    http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

    That is truly astonishing. A small rise among Republicans is unsurprising, but among Democrats as well? (Edit - oops, misread the year. The world stops rocking on its axis!!)

    That said, those Independent figures look a killer. He's not likely to hold Pennsylvania or Wisconsin on those numbers.
    Double digits is actually quite high for Dems. The Gallup tracker mostly show single digits for Trump amongst Dems
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
    Agree completely about the free to air, which is also hurting the teams in their efforts to get sponsorship when fewer people are watching the races. It’s doubly annoying because Sky’s coverage is really very good, is syndicated to dozens of countries yet has a relatively tiny audience in the UK because of the Sky business model.

    The new promotors are working on some innovative internet based technology, but that’s not going to attract the casual fan channel surfing on a Sunday evening.

    I think that yesterday will be the last time they ever give a chequered flag to someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing, the race director is very lucky that there were no position changes in those last two void laps.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1005920084483821572?s=20
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.
    I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?
    Why wouldn't he? I think that he would be quite content to remove the last vestiges of US armed forces from Europe. Although a shadow of what they once were there are still almost 35K troops in Germany and 65k in Europe overall. If Europe did meet its 2% obligation Russia would be no threat to Europe at all and they could go home allowing the military expenditure to be diverted to the Pacific where it is actually needed.

    The additional expenditure on the military is not the reason for the trade deficits but it doesn't help.
    If American troops did leave Europe, then who would protect the Balkan states? However, it is unlikely the Pentagon would want to give up its European bases.

    Eta: Balkan, Baltic, can I blame autocorrect?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Mr. Doethur, for the rest of the year. Then it's all Sky. Maybe FTA TV will get highlights, not sure.

    Mr. Sandpit, aye. Some good racing from Leclerc, again, though. Also, Renault have pulled a bit clear in 4th.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    It seems a common problem this year that overtaking seems more difficult than ever, at least amongst the cars which are competitive. Despite the long power straights DRS did not seem to help and we are left with a high speed procession unless someone screws up a pit stop. Its pretty dull.
    The issue is with the aerodynamics and airflow around the cars that make it very difficult to follow closely. There are some rule changes coming to address this but not until next year.
    https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/18506
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Mr. Sandpit, another special feature of the Sky deal is that the swanky F1-specific coverage direct from the sport is available in many dozens of countries, but not the UK. At least, not for a few years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
    Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!
    Which a lot of us didn’t know was on, until catching up on PB this morning. Looked like a very close match from the scorecards, well done Scotland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
    Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!
    I'm talking about proper cricket, not hit and giggle.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    .

    Why wouldn't he? I think that he would be quite content to remove the last vestiges of US armed forces from Europe. Although a shadow of what they once were there are still almost 35K troops in Germany and 65k in Europe overall. If Europe did meet its 2% obligation Russia would be no threat to Europe at all and they could go home allowing the military expenditure to be diverted to the Pacific where it is actually needed.

    The additional expenditure on the military is not the reason for the trade deficits but it doesn't help.
    If American troops did leave Europe, then who would protect the Balkan states? However, it is unlikely the Pentagon would want to give up its European bases.

    Eta: Balkans, Baltic, can I blame autocorrect?
    An EU which spent 2% of its GDP on defence spending could defend the Baltic states with ease from any form of conventional attack. There is still the issue of a nuclear threat of course.

    When I was in Germany as a kid in the 1970s the US presence in Germany was truly massive and war with the Soviet bloc seemed a real possibility. The few remaining basis in Germany are now a very long way from any potential front line and are mainly used as a stopping off point for forces on their way to the ME and Afghanistan.

    If Trump succeeds in disengaging from the ME (not so far) they will have little purpose. In contrast the tension in the Pacific is really only likely to go one way and the major change of emphasis to the Pacific that occurred under Obama will undoubtedly continue. Europe has become a backwater, which is of course not the worst place to live.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    With regard to Sky, I look forward to the day when all TV is online via subscription and no advertising can be shown.

    That will royally and amusingly shaft Sky and the BBC.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, another special feature of the Sky deal is that the swanky F1-specific coverage direct from the sport is available in many dozens of countries, but not the UK. At least, not for a few years.

    Can blame Bernie for that one unfortunately. A lot of the legacy TV rights deals include exclusivity on internet streaming coverage for the broadcaster, especially the pay TV broadcasters. Sky’s F1 exclusive deal is until the end of the 2023 season.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Fat chance, he has been bad mouthing St Theresa , we will get it same as rest.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
    Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!
    Which a lot of us didn’t know was on, until catching up on PB this morning. Looked like a very close match from the scorecards, well done Scotland.
    I bitterly regret not going. My son was keen initially but we were dependent upon touts for tickets and the weather forecast was not great. My son went to cricket camp at the Grange a couple of years ago. Its a lovely place but the facilities for watching are more akin to a village green than a proper stadium. There were 4,000 there and that was capacity. I reckon they could have got 14k if they had borrowed some temporary stands.

    England's batting was pretty reasonable, especially Bairstow, but their bowling was shockingly poor.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    F1: my expert (ahem) post-race analysis is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/06/canada-post-race-analysis-2018.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Fat chance, he has been bad mouthing St Theresa , we will get it same as rest.
    PS: His pathological hatred of Germany is down to Merkel telling him as it is rather than trying the May approach of lending him her tongue. The big tangerine only likes women who fawn over him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

    On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

    Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
    Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!
    Which a lot of us didn’t know was on, until catching up on PB this morning. Looked like a very close match from the scorecards, well done Scotland.
    I bitterly regret not going. My son was keen initially but we were dependent upon touts for tickets and the weather forecast was not great. My son went to cricket camp at the Grange a couple of years ago. Its a lovely place but the facilities for watching are more akin to a village green than a proper stadium. There were 4,000 there and that was capacity. I reckon they could have got 14k if they had borrowed some temporary stands.

    England's batting was pretty reasonable, especially Bairstow, but their bowling was shockingly poor.
    My worst ever decision was a few years back when I decided to miss the last two sessions of an England-Sri Lanka Test at Cardiff with free entry. Rain had ruined the first four days and I thought Sangakkarra would block out for a draw.

    Instead there was a Swann special and England won practically off the last ball. One of the great finishes, and I was sitting at home swearing.

    Edit - report is here. Those were the days, eh?

    And with that, I wish all hombres buenos dias.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    Trump's current approval amongst all voters with Gallup is just 41%, well below the 50% for all US presidents at this stage of their presidency.

    http://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

    Also while Republicans are still largely behind him that will not necessarily help establishment Republican candidates in the midterms especially after the likes of Paul Ryan criticised Trump's tariffs, Trump supporters may turn out for him again in 2020 but stay at home in November when he is not on the ballot much like many Obama voters turned out in 2012 but not 2010.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    A sign of things to come: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44432056

    Actually, I suspect Trump would approve.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Mr. L, this line was, er, interesting: "Malta says the German charity SOS Méditerranée picked up the migrants in Libyan waters, which means they fall under Italy's jurisdiction."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,701
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. L, this line was, er, interesting: "Malta says the German charity SOS Méditerranée picked up the migrants in Libyan waters, which means they fall under Italy's jurisdiction."

    Yes, I noticed that too. Quite imperialistic. But I suspect that there will be tremendous pressure this summer from Italy's new government to ensure that those picked up in Libyan waters are returned to Libya or Tunisia or Egypt and don't come to Europe at all. The Italians have had enough.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    edited June 2018
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    .

    .
    Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

    That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
    Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!
    Which a lot of us didn’t know was on, until catching up on PB this morning. Looked like a very close match from the scorecards, well done Scotland.
    I bitterly regret not going. My son was keen initially but we were dependent upon touts for tickets and the weather forecast was not great. My son went to cricket camp at the Grange a couple of years ago. Its a lovely place but the facilities for watching are more akin to a village green than a proper stadium. There were 4,000 there and that was capacity. I reckon they could have got 14k if they had borrowed some temporary stands.

    England's batting was pretty reasonable, especially Bairstow, but their bowling was shockingly poor.
    My worst ever decision was a few years back when I decided to miss the last two sessions of an England-Sri Lanka Test at Cardiff with free entry. Rain had ruined the first four days and I thought Sangakkarra would block out for a draw.

    Instead there was a Swann special and England won practically off the last ball. One of the great finishes, and I was sitting at home swearing.

    Edit - report is here. Those were the days, eh?

    And with that, I wish all hombres buenos dias.
    I did something very similar, Pakistan v England at Abu Dhabi a couple of years ago. Was there for the morning session of the last day, came home at lunch thinking it was going to be a boring draw and the wife really didn’t fancy spending the whole day there - of course it turned into a thriller that finished pretty much in the dark. Ho hum.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/cricket/article-3277031/Adil-Rashid-bags-five-wicket-haul-England-denied-bad-light-Test-against-Pakistan-ends-draw.html
    Only in cricket could a game that had meandered towards what looked like an inevitable stalemate for four and a half days burst into life so spectacularly on the last afternoon, just as the players looked set to shake hands and call it a day.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,906
    UK remains no 1 for overseas investment in Europe

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/grossbritannien-trotz-brexit-bei-investoren-nr-1-in-europa-15633494.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    Alanbrooke said:

    UK remains no 1 for overseas investment in Europe

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/grossbritannien-trotz-brexit-bei-investoren-nr-1-in-europa-15633494.html

    Number one in absolute terms, and top five on a per capita basis: yay!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,298
    HYUFD said:

    Trump's current approval amongst all voters with Gallup is just 41%, well below the 50% for all US presidents at this stage of their presidency.

    http://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

    Also while Republicans are still largely behind him that will not necessarily help establishment Republican candidates in the midterms especially after the likes of Paul Ryan criticised Trump's tariffs, Trump supporters may turn out for him again in 2020 but stay at home in November when he is not on the ballot much like many Obama voters turned out in 2012 but not 2010.

    But doing 10% better than Reagan is worthy of note....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Apropos of nothing, does anyone have a list of which European heads of government insulted or ridiculed the Donald before he was elected?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,906
    rcs1000 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    UK remains no 1 for overseas investment in Europe

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/grossbritannien-trotz-brexit-bei-investoren-nr-1-in-europa-15633494.html

    Number one in absolute terms, and top five on a per capita basis: yay!
    article says Germany and France look more interesting but UK secures more investment
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?
    They are at the local public (as in not private) elementary school. Now, granted, I live in a nice part of town, albeit nowhere near as fancy as Beverley Hills, Malibu, Bel Air, Hancock Park or even Calabasas or Westlake.
    Quite a change from 'swinging London'!
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    A lot of Trump's 2020 campaign will depend on the money, will big business want Trump to run again? whilst I accept many white male traditional voters like Trump I do not sense that US banks, software/IT, industry is all that keen. A good Republican candidate could well deter the Donald from running again, and by then he will be approaching his mid 70s - mind you Dr M in Malaysia won power aged 93!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    It's Trumps third term that we have to worry about.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    With regard to Sky, I look forward to the day when all TV is online via subscription and no advertising can be shown.

    That will royally and amusingly shaft Sky and the BBC.

    Why on Earth would that ever happen?

    Be good to see BBC become optional rather than something we're compelled to pay for though.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    DavidL said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. L, this line was, er, interesting: "Malta says the German charity SOS Méditerranée picked up the migrants in Libyan waters, which means they fall under Italy's jurisdiction."

    Yes, I noticed that too. Quite imperialistic. But I suspect that there will be tremendous pressure this summer from Italy's new government to ensure that those picked up in Libyan waters are returned to Libya or Tunisia or Egypt and don't come to Europe at all. The Italians have had enough.
    Italy is currently the competent authority for the Libyan waters in question- this is accepted by those countries involved in the mission, nothing colonial but a reality of a failed state, whether the government wants to give that up is another matter.

    The reality of screwing Libya up generates such issues, mind you Gadaffi was a big bad bloke.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,590
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Fat chance, he has been bad mouthing St Theresa , we will get it same as rest.
    PS: His pathological hatred of Germany is down to Merkel telling him as it is rather than trying the May approach of lending him her tongue. The big tangerine only likes women who fawn over him.
    :lol:

    "fawn". Euphemism of the day.

    And it's only 8 oclock!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,974
    JohnLoony said:

    If Donald Trump behaves like that to Justin Trudeau, how will he speak to Kim Jong Un?
    After the shambles of G7, I have little hope for the Kim-Trump summit achieving anything substantial.

    Talking of G7, they don't exactly have inspiring leaders at the moment:

    UK: a weak incompetent Prime Minister who recklessly threw away a parliamentary majority.

    Germany: a weakened Prime Minister who recklessly let in a million immigrants in one swell foop with no quality check.

    France: a vacuous telegenic centrist who is an EU-fanatic.

    Italy: an inexperienced functionary who is a puppet of two rival insurgent populist parties.

    USA: an inexperienced psychotic narcissist bully.

    Canada: a vacuous telegenic centrist who is a twerp.

    Japan: a Prime Minister who is vaguely normal and has been in office for 7 years.

    1 out of 7 is not very encouraging.

    Tough crowd.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    rcs1000 said:

    How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

    Came here to say this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,964
    DavidL said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. L, this line was, er, interesting: "Malta says the German charity SOS Méditerranée picked up the migrants in Libyan waters, which means they fall under Italy's jurisdiction."

    Yes, I noticed that too. Quite imperialistic. But I suspect that there will be tremendous pressure this summer from Italy's new government to ensure that those picked up in Libyan waters are returned to Libya or Tunisia or Egypt and don't come to Europe at all. The Italians have had enough.
    I have long advocated dropping them off back in Libya, in a resettlement camp. The Australian solution to Boat people was the correct one.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    CarlottaVance said:

    notme said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

    https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

    driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

    Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20


    It’s becoming pathological.
    "we're undergoing a coup"

    Yes, Mr Grayling, you and your ilk, who have always known best have been told where to go, by the rest of the people you share our country with. It must be galling, after getting your own way for so long, to be thwarted....
    What's happened to you Carlotta. From insightful poster to Gerald Howarth without pause for breath
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,590
    Jonathan said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    2027 GE?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    edited June 2018
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump's current approval amongst all voters with Gallup is just 41%, well below the 50% for all US presidents at this stage of their presidency.

    http://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

    Also while Republicans are still largely behind him that will not necessarily help establishment Republican candidates in the midterms especially after the likes of Paul Ryan criticised Trump's tariffs, Trump supporters may turn out for him again in 2020 but stay at home in November when he is not on the ballot much like many Obama voters turned out in 2012 but not 2010.

    But doing 10% better than Reagan is worthy of note....
    The Republicans lost heavily in the House in the 1982 midterms
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,964
    Jonathan said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    She is. Well worth it in the next leader stakes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,298
    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited June 2018
    rottenborough said:

    Jonathan said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    2027 GE?
    Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,964
    MarqueeMark said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    The European Selmayr Commission continues to hand out jobs for the boys (and girls):

    http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/06/11/union-europeenne-nouvelle-mascarade-a-la-commission-selmayr_1657986?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1528696658
  • FrenchBugFrenchBug Posts: 1
    There is a very simply explanation for this: Trump support is high among self-identified Republicans ... because moderate Republicans who don't support Trump now identify as "independents" in such surveys. This why there is such a gap between Trump numbers among Republicans vs Democrats and independents because "Republicans" have become a self-selecting group of Trump supporters and a lot of right-leaning voters prefer to identify as independents.
    Which is why his actual support among all voters - that I would think is slightly more relevant - is actually lower than any of those past Presidents.

    This is a phenomenon btw that we observed in a milder way at the end of the W. Bush Presidency. He was so unpopular that many right-leaners preferred to ID as independents. What is interesting is that they still voted Republicans and their change of self-description was more a way to signal disapproval than a change of loyalty.
    The Trump numbers among independents suggest that here the discontent is much deeper and signal a tough November for Republican candidates of any hue.

    The Gallup number in itself does not say much. They are not comparing the same pool of voters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    Remember the poster roundly ticking off OGH for carrying ads for Mail-order Romanian Brides....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    She is. Well worth it in the next leader stakes.
    Next leader but one. The Corbyn cult dislike her.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    She is. Well worth it in the next leader stakes.
    Is anyone not concerned how so quickly abortion has become a party political issue? A political wedge to attack the government?

    We know why, it’s easy to know the government vulnerability with its DUP alliance. But abortion has always been outside the party politics and a matter of conscious for individual members of Parliament. How we mocked it being a vicious dividing line in American identity politics.

    It looks to me that it’s becoming a dividing line over here now also. Stella Creasy is at the forefront of that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    At least they'll be able to drive across the border now rather than having to get on a plane or boat. Some progress in towards the 21st century.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,298
    Jonathan said:

    It's Trumps third term that we have to worry about.

    Trump's detractors are softening. Was a time they worried about a single term, lasting a thousand years....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

    Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

    Never mind Russia, China and India are not even in the G7 either.

    Though all 3 are in the G20 along with Brazil, South Korea and Australia and Spain is a permanent guest member. The G20 is now the real powermaking body for the 21st century, the G7 is a 20th century relic from the time of the Cold War
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Mr. Bug, welcome to PB. Interesting comment. I wonder, on the same basis, what Corbyn's approval rating with Labour members (including the £3 set) is.

    Mr. Notme, indeed. Political opportunism on an issue of morality, which had hitherto not being remotely party political, and which also desires Westminster to impose laws on a devolved matter is not a pretty sight.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    As an aside, keeping a lazy eye on E3 and Elder Scrolls VI has, briefly, been announced. It'll be coming out after Starfield, though, so I'd guess it's still a year or two off. No word on the province in which it'll be set. High Rock possible (short trailer, just shows rocky mountains and grasslands beneath). Most people had thought it'd be in Valenwood, but it'd be slightly odd if that were the case and they didn't show a forest.

    Given the popularity of Skyrim, they'll make a fortune on VI, unless they absolutely bugger it up.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    She is. Well worth it in the next leader stakes.
    Is anyone not concerned how so quickly abortion has become a party political issue? A political wedge to attack the government?

    We know why, it’s easy to know the government vulnerability with its DUP alliance. But abortion has always been outside the party politics and a matter of conscious for individual members of Parliament. How we mocked it being a vicious dividing line in American identity politics.

    It looks to me that it’s becoming a dividing line over here now also. Stella Creasy is at the forefront of that.
    Not party political, but is it perhaps because women MPs are becoming younger and more assertive on matters that relate to them, and have positions of leadership think DUP, Sin Fein, Tories, SNP, PC, Scots Tories among others are now headed by women?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,079
    FrenchBug said:

    There is a very simply explanation for this: Trump support is high among self-identified Republicans ... because moderate Republicans who don't support Trump now identify as "independents" in such surveys. This why there is such a gap between Trump numbers among Republicans vs Democrats and independents because "Republicans" have become a self-selecting group of Trump supporters and a lot of right-leaning voters prefer to identify as independents.
    Which is why his actual support among all voters - that I would think is slightly more relevant - is actually lower than any of those past Presidents.

    This is a phenomenon btw that we observed in a milder way at the end of the W. Bush Presidency. He was so unpopular that many right-leaners preferred to ID as independents. What is interesting is that they still voted Republicans and their change of self-description was more a way to signal disapproval than a change of loyalty.
    The Trump numbers among independents suggest that here the discontent is much deeper and signal a tough November for Republican candidates of any hue.

    The Gallup number in itself does not say much. They are not comparing the same pool of voters.

    Independents are on the rise as shown here
    http://news.gallup.com/poll/225056/americans-identification-independents-back-2017.aspx
    However, accoring to Gallup, Trump has lost support amongst Republicans and Democrats as well as Independents, just more amongst the growing band of Independents.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's Trumps third term that we have to worry about.

    Trump's detractors are softening. Was a time they worried about a single term, lasting a thousand years....
    Pence is scarier than Trump is many respects.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Second! Like Remain.....

    And he's been tweeting again...

    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
    ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

    I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

    Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.
    I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?
    Indeed so, although EU defence spending (inc UK) is less that half what the US spends for a larger population.

    There’s also no way Trump is ever going to cut defence spending in the US because of the massive number of jobs it supports - and the propensity of the vast majority of them to vote Republican.

    Britain is lucky that we have pretty balanced trade with the US, thus keeping us off Trump’s radar - unlike Germany and China.
    I don't think 'keeping off Trump's radar' should be an aspiration for a proud European nation though it's an accurate assessment of our likely feebleness going forward
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

    Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

    None of those countries have nuclear weapons and no one on the planet (other than the US of course) has as many nuclear weapons as Russia.

    Personally, though, I agree. As I have said on here before Russia is a relatively minor power economically dependent upon commodities to keep it going. It may be a threat to the Baltic states and it is a bad neighbour but the idea that it is a genuine threat to western Europe is a bit of a joke. Putin does a very good impression of being more important than he really is and the best way to deal with him is to ignore him as much as possible.
    Even at current spending, European nations could protect the Baltic States. The question is would they?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,974
    Morris_Dancer said:

    As an aside, keeping a lazy eye on E3 and Elder Scrolls VI has, briefly, been announced. It'll be coming out after Starfield, though, so I'd guess it's still a year or two off. No word on the province in which it'll be set. High Rock possible (short trailer, just shows rocky mountains and grasslands beneath). Most people had thought it'd be in Valenwood, but it'd be slightly odd if that were the case and they didn't show a forest.

    Given the popularity of Skyrim, they'll make a fortune on VI, unless they absolutely bugger it up.

    Indeed. Though as influential and changing as Skyrim was in many ways personally I prefer later games like dragon age inquisition, or the witcher 3. I tried replaying skyrim this year and the lack of characters made it less interesting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    MarqueeMark said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    I get adverts relating to baldness.

    I did once get an advert for cougars seeking younger men.
This discussion has been closed.