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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should give great succour to Trump

Ahead of the G7 summit it is worth noting Donald Trump has the second highest 'own party' approval rating after 500 days of any US president in Gallup's archive. Only post 9/11 George W Bush is higher. pic.twitter.com/nZL9nBuUUT
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And he's been tweeting again...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20
I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/trumps-victory-1-year-later/data-republican-party-id-drops-after-trump-election-n828141
What were the comparable figures for Bush ?
https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20
driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....
Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20
May I ask what evidence you have for this assumption?
Do you have any polling on them?
It’s becoming pathological.
As the trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, has pointed out, trade data flatly contradicts the claim that Canadian supply management is ravaging US dairyland – either because it unfairly restricts imports or because it dumps a subsidized surplus in US markets. In 2016, Canada imported dairy products from the US worth five times more than the small amount it exported there. “I would call that a pretty good deal,” she told the House of Commons.
Canadian farmers point out that despite the tariffs that protect them, imports make up 10% of the country’s dairy consumption. By contrast, the US restricts dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption. “That just screams hypocrisy to me,” Muirhead said. “I don’t understand how they can get away with these positions.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/jun/09/milk-canada-us-trade-war
As ever, your own countries failure to tackle issues (in the US case de-regulated dairy driving down prices and hence farm incomes) are more easily blamed on others....
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html
Yes, Mr Grayling, you and your ilk, who have always known best have been told where to go, by the rest of the people you share our country with. It must be galling, after getting your own way for so long, to be thwarted....
Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.
The additional expenditure on the military is not the reason for the trade deficits but it doesn't help.
Personally, though, I agree. As I have said on here before Russia is a relatively minor power economically dependent upon commodities to keep it going. It may be a threat to the Baltic states and it is a bad neighbour but the idea that it is a genuine threat to western Europe is a bit of a joke. Putin does a very good impression of being more important than he really is and the best way to deal with him is to ignore him as much as possible.
Republicans Independents Democrats
2018 May 28-Jun 3 87 34 11
2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13
http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.
On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.
There’s also no way Trump is ever going to cut defence spending in the US because of the massive number of jobs it supports - and the propensity of the vast majority of them to vote Republican.
Britain is lucky that we have pretty balanced trade with the US, thus keeping us off Trump’s radar - unlike Germany and China.
That said, those Independent figures look a killer. He's not likely to hold Pennsylvania or Wisconsin on those numbers.
That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.
In the 2010 and 2014 mid terms the generic ballot was neck and neck in June/July. Republicans didn't pull massively ahead until September/October.
In October a lot of people will be renewing their health insurance. Premiums will be rocketing.
Republicans down 2%
Democrats down 2%
Independents down 8%
Sorry the spacing lost something when I posted it.
The new promotors are working on some innovative internet based technology, but that’s not going to attract the casual fan channel surfing on a Sunday evening.
I think that yesterday will be the last time they ever give a chequered flag to someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing, the race director is very lucky that there were no position changes in those last two void laps.
Eta: Balkan, Baltic, can I blame autocorrect?
Mr. Sandpit, aye. Some good racing from Leclerc, again, though. Also, Renault have pulled a bit clear in 4th.
https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/18506
When I was in Germany as a kid in the 1970s the US presence in Germany was truly massive and war with the Soviet bloc seemed a real possibility. The few remaining basis in Germany are now a very long way from any potential front line and are mainly used as a stopping off point for forces on their way to the ME and Afghanistan.
If Trump succeeds in disengaging from the ME (not so far) they will have little purpose. In contrast the tension in the Pacific is really only likely to go one way and the major change of emphasis to the Pacific that occurred under Obama will undoubtedly continue. Europe has become a backwater, which is of course not the worst place to live.
That will royally and amusingly shaft Sky and the BBC.
England's batting was pretty reasonable, especially Bairstow, but their bowling was shockingly poor.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/06/canada-post-race-analysis-2018.html
Instead there was a Swann special and England won practically off the last ball. One of the great finishes, and I was sitting at home swearing.
Edit - report is here. Those were the days, eh?
And with that, I wish all hombres buenos dias.
http://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles
Also while Republicans are still largely behind him that will not necessarily help establishment Republican candidates in the midterms especially after the likes of Paul Ryan criticised Trump's tariffs, Trump supporters may turn out for him again in 2020 but stay at home in November when he is not on the ballot much like many Obama voters turned out in 2012 but not 2010.
Actually, I suspect Trump would approve.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/cricket/article-3277031/Adil-Rashid-bags-five-wicket-haul-England-denied-bad-light-Test-against-Pakistan-ends-draw.html
Only in cricket could a game that had meandered towards what looked like an inevitable stalemate for four and a half days burst into life so spectacularly on the last afternoon, just as the players looked set to shake hands and call it a day.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/grossbritannien-trotz-brexit-bei-investoren-nr-1-in-europa-15633494.html
Be good to see BBC become optional rather than something we're compelled to pay for though.
The reality of screwing Libya up generates such issues, mind you Gadaffi was a big bad bloke.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best
"fawn". Euphemism of the day.
And it's only 8 oclock!
http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/06/11/union-europeenne-nouvelle-mascarade-a-la-commission-selmayr_1657986?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1528696658
Which is why his actual support among all voters - that I would think is slightly more relevant - is actually lower than any of those past Presidents.
This is a phenomenon btw that we observed in a milder way at the end of the W. Bush Presidency. He was so unpopular that many right-leaners preferred to ID as independents. What is interesting is that they still voted Republicans and their change of self-description was more a way to signal disapproval than a change of loyalty.
The Trump numbers among independents suggest that here the discontent is much deeper and signal a tough November for Republican candidates of any hue.
The Gallup number in itself does not say much. They are not comparing the same pool of voters.
We know why, it’s easy to know the government vulnerability with its DUP alliance. But abortion has always been outside the party politics and a matter of conscious for individual members of Parliament. How we mocked it being a vicious dividing line in American identity politics.
It looks to me that it’s becoming a dividing line over here now also. Stella Creasy is at the forefront of that.
Though all 3 are in the G20 along with Brazil, South Korea and Australia and Spain is a permanent guest member. The G20 is now the real powermaking body for the 21st century, the G7 is a 20th century relic from the time of the Cold War
Mr. Notme, indeed. Political opportunism on an issue of morality, which had hitherto not being remotely party political, and which also desires Westminster to impose laws on a devolved matter is not a pretty sight.
Given the popularity of Skyrim, they'll make a fortune on VI, unless they absolutely bugger it up.
http://news.gallup.com/poll/225056/americans-identification-independents-back-2017.aspx
However, accoring to Gallup, Trump has lost support amongst Republicans and Democrats as well as Independents, just more amongst the growing band of Independents.
I did once get an advert for cougars seeking younger men.