politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should give great succour to Trump

How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

Second! Like Remain.....

And he's been tweeting again...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

Impressive certainly - but Trump won independents last time and will need to do so again I'd have thought.

CarlottaVance said:

I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

This post makes the assumption that A C Grayling, a man so narcissistic he founded a new university college dedicated entirely to showcasing his own brilliant (umm) thoughts, was sane to start with.

May I ask what evidence you have for this assumption?

On topic, that might secure Trump the nomination but it's swing voters who will decide the election. That's what crippled George H. Bush, especially after his health scares and the recession caused by breaking his 'read my lips' promise.

Do you have any polling on them?

On Trump's beef with Canada over dairy:

As the trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, has pointed out, trade data flatly contradicts the claim that Canadian supply management is ravaging US dairyland – either because it unfairly restricts imports or because it dumps a subsidized surplus in US markets. In 2016, Canada imported dairy products from the US worth five times more than the small amount it exported there. “I would call that a pretty good deal,” she told the House of Commons.

Canadian farmers point out that despite the tariffs that protect them, imports make up 10% of the country’s dairy consumption. By contrast, the US restricts dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption. “That just screams hypocrisy to me,” Muirhead said. “I don’t understand how they can get away with these positions.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/jun/09/milk-canada-us-trade-war

As ever, your own countries failure to tackle issues (in the US case de-regulated dairy driving down prices and hence farm incomes) are more easily blamed on others....

CarlottaVance said:

Second! Like Remain.....

And he's been tweeting again...

ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.

notme said:

CarlottaVance said:

Second! Like Remain.....

And he's been tweeting again...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

Most of that trade deficit is with us though is it not? TTIP would have neutered all this as retaliatory tariffs would have been removed from an executive function.

Depends on what you're looking at (and who is doing the measuring - the EU and US have different figures), but in goods which seems to obsess Trump most, in 2018 to date on US data they are currently running a surplus with the UK of +$3bn (last year +$3bn) and a deficit with Germany of -$22bn (last year -$64bn).

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Second! Like Remain.....

And he's been tweeting again...

ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.

I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?

notme said:

CarlottaVance said:

I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20

It’s becoming pathological.

"we're undergoing a coup"

Yes, Mr Grayling, you and your ilk, who have always known best have been told where to go, by the rest of the people you share our country with. It must be galling, after getting your own way for so long, to be thwarted....

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?

They are at the local public (as in not private) elementary school. Now, granted, I live in a nice part of town, albeit nowhere near as fancy as Beverley Hills, Malibu, Bel Air, Hancock Park or even Calabasas or Westlake.

Why? It seems from your link that there are more private schools in the area than public, albeit it may be that the private schools are smaller. Does this not make the public schools less attractive in that many of the more able and driven pupils will have been drained off? That's what people contend here for grammar schools and also seems to be a bit of a problem in Edinburgh.

There are lots of private schools in my part of LA because it's near the intersections of the three most important roads in the city: the 405, the 10 and the 101. Pretty much every major LA private school is within a mile of where those freeways meet. They don't draw (much) from the local demographic.

CarlottaVance said:

On Trump's beef with Canada over dairy:

As the trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, has pointed out, trade data flatly contradicts the claim that Canadian supply management is ravaging US dairyland – either because it unfairly restricts imports or because it dumps a subsidized surplus in US markets. In 2016, Canada imported dairy products from the US worth five times more than the small amount it exported there. “I would call that a pretty good deal,” she told the House of Commons.

Canadian farmers point out that despite the tariffs that protect them, imports make up 10% of the country’s dairy consumption. By contrast, the US restricts dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption. “That just screams hypocrisy to me,” Muirhead said. “I don’t understand how they can get away with these positions.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/jun/09/milk-canada-us-trade-war

As ever, your own countries failure to tackle issues (in the US case de-regulated dairy driving down prices and hence farm incomes) are more easily blamed on others....

Is lying about your dairy imports the reverse cowgirl position?

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

None of those countries have nuclear weapons and no one on the planet (other than the US of course) has as many nuclear weapons as Russia.

Personally, though, I agree. As I have said on here before Russia is a relatively minor power economically dependent upon commodities to keep it going. It may be a threat to the Baltic states and it is a bad neighbour but the idea that it is a genuine threat to western Europe is a bit of a joke. Putin does a very good impression of being more important than he really is and the best way to deal with him is to ignore him as much as possible.

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

FPT, that might well say more about your kids’ school than it does about LA ?

They are at the local public (as in not private) elementary school. Now, granted, I live in a nice part of town, albeit nowhere near as fancy as Beverley Hills, Malibu, Bel Air, Hancock Park or even Calabasas or Westlake.

Why? It seems from your link that there are more private schools in the area than public, albeit it may be that the private schools are smaller. Does this not make the public schools less attractive in that many of the more able and driven pupils will have been drained off? That's what people contend here for grammar schools and also seems to be a bit of a problem in Edinburgh.

There are lots of private schools in my part of LA because it's near the intersections of the three most important roads in the city: the 405, the 10 and the 101. Pretty much every major LA private school is within a mile of where those freeways meet. They don't draw (much) from the local demographic.

Interesting. Didn't know that.

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Second! Like Remain.....

And he's been tweeting again...

ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.

I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?

Indeed so, although EU defence spending (inc UK) is less that half what the US spends for a larger population.

There’s also no way Trump is ever going to cut defence spending in the US because of the massive number of jobs it supports - and the propensity of the vast majority of them to vote Republican.

Britain is lucky that we have pretty balanced trade with the US, thus keeping us off Trump’s radar - unlike Germany and China.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.

Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.

It seems a common problem this year that overtaking seems more difficult than ever, at least amongst the cars which are competitive. Despite the long power straights DRS did not seem to help and we are left with a high speed procession unless someone screws up a pit stop. Its pretty dull.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.

Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.

Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!

ydoethur said:

logical_song said:

Trump approval rating, split by Party - biggest drop is amongst Independents.


Republicans Independents Democrats

2018 May 28-Jun 3 87 34 11
2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13

http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

That is truly astonishing. A small rise among Republicans is unsurprising, but among Democrats as well? (Edit - oops, misread the year. The world stops rocking on its axis!!)

That said, those Independent figures look a killer. He's not likely to hold Pennsylvania or Wisconsin on those numbers.

Double digits is actually quite high for Dems. The Gallup tracker mostly show single digits for Trump amongst Dems

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1005920084483821572?s=20

Mr. Doethur, for the rest of the year. Then it's all Sky. Maybe FTA TV will get highlights, not sure.

Mr. Sandpit, aye. Some good racing from Leclerc, again, though. Also, Renault have pulled a bit clear in 4th.

Mr. Sandpit, another special feature of the Sky deal is that the swanky F1-specific coverage direct from the sport is available in many dozens of countries, but not the UK. At least, not for a few years.

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.

Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.

Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!

I'm talking about proper cricket, not hit and giggle.

With regard to Sky, I look forward to the day when all TV is online via subscription and no advertising can be shown.

That will royally and amusingly shaft Sky and the BBC.

CarlottaVance said:

Second! Like Remain.....

And he's been tweeting again...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

Fat chance, he has been bad mouthing St Theresa , we will get it same as rest.

F1: my expert (ahem) post-race analysis is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/06/canada-post-race-analysis-2018.html

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: red race and not a classic, but some odd spots of interest. Will write the post-race ramble presently.

On-topic: intriguing polling. Will be interesting to see how it stands if/when the economic retaliation and potential trade war really gets going.

Even as a big fan that was a crap race, the two highlights being a first lap shunt at the back of the field, and the farce of the fashion model honorary VIP chequered flag waver managing to f... up the simplest of tasks.

Apparently it was the race director who lost count. But I didn't even know it was on, although it sounds as though I didn't miss much. Bloody Sky.

That's how cricket has died in this country. At least F1 has a handful of races on free-to-air.

Cricket has died? A bit of an overreaction to Scotland's incredible triumph yesterday!

Which a lot of us didn’t know was on, until catching up on PB this morning. Looked like a very close match from the scorecards, well done Scotland.

I bitterly regret not going. My son was keen initially but we were dependent upon touts for tickets and the weather forecast was not great. My son went to cricket camp at the Grange a couple of years ago. Its a lovely place but the facilities for watching are more akin to a village green than a proper stadium. There were 4,000 there and that was capacity. I reckon they could have got 14k if they had borrowed some temporary stands.

England's batting was pretty reasonable, especially Bairstow, but their bowling was shockingly poor.

My worst ever decision was a few years back when I decided to miss the last two sessions of an England-Sri Lanka Test at Cardiff with free entry. Rain had ruined the first four days and I thought Sangakkarra would block out for a draw.

Instead there was a Swann special and England won practically off the last ball. One of the great finishes, and I was sitting at home swearing.

Edit - report is here. Those were the days, eh?

And with that, I wish all hombres buenos dias.

A sign of things to come: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44432056

Actually, I suspect Trump would approve.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, this line was, er, interesting: "Malta says the German charity SOS Méditerranée picked up the migrants in Libyan waters, which means they fall under Italy's jurisdiction."

Yes, I noticed that too. Quite imperialistic. But I suspect that there will be tremendous pressure this summer from Italy's new government to ensure that those picked up in Libyan waters are returned to Libya or Tunisia or Egypt and don't come to Europe at all. The Italians have had enough.

UK remains no 1 for overseas investment in Europe

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/grossbritannien-trotz-brexit-bei-investoren-nr-1-in-europa-15633494.html

HYUFD said:

Trump's current approval amongst all voters with Gallup is just 41%, well below the 50% for all US presidents at this stage of their presidency.

http://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Also while Republicans are still largely behind him that will not necessarily help establishment Republican candidates in the midterms especially after the likes of Paul Ryan criticised Trump's tariffs, Trump supporters may turn out for him again in 2020 but stay at home in November when he is not on the ballot much like many Obama voters turned out in 2012 but not 2010.

But doing 10% better than Reagan is worthy of note....

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

UK remains no 1 for overseas investment in Europe

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/brexit/grossbritannien-trotz-brexit-bei-investoren-nr-1-in-europa-15633494.html

Number one in absolute terms, and top five on a per capita basis: yay!

article says Germany and France look more interesting but UK secures more investment

A lot of Trump's 2020 campaign will depend on the money, will big business want Trump to run again? whilst I accept many white male traditional voters like Trump I do not sense that US banks, software/IT, industry is all that keen. A good Republican candidate could well deter the Donald from running again, and by then he will be approaching his mid 70s - mind you Dr M in Malaysia won power aged 93!

ydoethur said:

With regard to Sky, I look forward to the day when all TV is online via subscription and no advertising can be shown.

That will royally and amusingly shaft Sky and the BBC.

Why on Earth would that ever happen?

Be good to see BBC become optional rather than something we're compelled to pay for though.

Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

JohnLoony said:

If Donald Trump behaves like that to Justin Trudeau, how will he speak to Kim Jong Un?
After the shambles of G7, I have little hope for the Kim-Trump summit achieving anything substantial.

Talking of G7, they don't exactly have inspiring leaders at the moment:

UK: a weak incompetent Prime Minister who recklessly threw away a parliamentary majority.

Germany: a weakened Prime Minister who recklessly let in a million immigrants in one swell foop with no quality check.

France: a vacuous telegenic centrist who is an EU-fanatic.

Italy: an inexperienced functionary who is a puppet of two rival insurgent populist parties.

USA: an inexperienced psychotic narcissist bully.

Canada: a vacuous telegenic centrist who is a twerp.

Japan: a Prime Minister who is vaguely normal and has been in office for 7 years.

1 out of 7 is not very encouraging.

Tough crowd.

rcs1000 said:

How much is own party as % of total, and how is that different from the past?

Came here to say this.

CarlottaVance said:

notme said:

CarlottaVance said:

I fear the Democrats are going to go the way of some of the Remainers in the UK like Adonis, A C Grayling et al - his latest:

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1005947735818850304?s=20

driven totally mad by Trump/Brexit, clutching at each new straw that blows in (Ms Miller, Facebook, Cambridge Analytica, now Banks.....) to claim 'the result is invalid, we must overturn it (we're right, of course, and have been for decades, how dare you doubt us!)', while completely ignoring the electoral maths.....

Remember Mr Glenn's "RIP Brexit":

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1005016267059748864?s=20

It’s becoming pathological.

"we're undergoing a coup"

Yes, Mr Grayling, you and your ilk, who have always known best have been told where to go, by the rest of the people you share our country with. It must be galling, after getting your own way for so long, to be thwarted....

What's happened to you Carlotta. From insightful poster to Gerald Howarth without pause for breath

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Trump's current approval amongst all voters with Gallup is just 41%, well below the 50% for all US presidents at this stage of their presidency.

http://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Also while Republicans are still largely behind him that will not necessarily help establishment Republican candidates in the midterms especially after the likes of Paul Ryan criticised Trump's tariffs, Trump supporters may turn out for him again in 2020 but stay at home in November when he is not on the ballot much like many Obama voters turned out in 2012 but not 2010.

But doing 10% better than Reagan is worthy of note....

The Republicans lost heavily in the House in the 1982 midterms

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

MarqueeMark said:

Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

There is a very simply explanation for this: Trump support is high among self-identified Republicans ... because moderate Republicans who don't support Trump now identify as "independents" in such surveys. This why there is such a gap between Trump numbers among Republicans vs Democrats and independents because "Republicans" have become a self-selecting group of Trump supporters and a lot of right-leaning voters prefer to identify as independents.
Which is why his actual support among all voters - that I would think is slightly more relevant - is actually lower than any of those past Presidents.

This is a phenomenon btw that we observed in a milder way at the end of the W. Bush Presidency. He was so unpopular that many right-leaners preferred to ID as independents. What is interesting is that they still voted Republicans and their change of self-description was more a way to signal disapproval than a change of loyalty.
The Trump numbers among independents suggest that here the discontent is much deeper and signal a tough November for Republican candidates of any hue.

The Gallup number in itself does not say much. They are not comparing the same pool of voters.

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.

She is. Well worth it in the next leader stakes.

Next leader but one. The Corbyn cult dislike her.

NickPalmer said:

Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

At least they'll be able to drive across the border now rather than having to get on a plane or boat. Some progress in towards the 21st century.

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

Never mind Russia, China and India are not even in the G7 either.

Though all 3 are in the G20 along with Brazil, South Korea and Australia and Spain is a permanent guest member. The G20 is now the real powermaking body for the 21st century, the G7 is a 20th century relic from the time of the Cold War

As an aside, keeping a lazy eye on E3 and Elder Scrolls VI has, briefly, been announced. It'll be coming out after Starfield, though, so I'd guess it's still a year or two off. No word on the province in which it'll be set. High Rock possible (short trailer, just shows rocky mountains and grasslands beneath). Most people had thought it'd be in Valenwood, but it'd be slightly odd if that were the case and they didn't show a forest.

Given the popularity of Skyrim, they'll make a fortune on VI, unless they absolutely bugger it up.

FrenchBug said:

There is a very simply explanation for this: Trump support is high among self-identified Republicans ... because moderate Republicans who don't support Trump now identify as "independents" in such surveys. This why there is such a gap between Trump numbers among Republicans vs Democrats and independents because "Republicans" have become a self-selecting group of Trump supporters and a lot of right-leaning voters prefer to identify as independents.
Which is why his actual support among all voters - that I would think is slightly more relevant - is actually lower than any of those past Presidents.

This is a phenomenon btw that we observed in a milder way at the end of the W. Bush Presidency. He was so unpopular that many right-leaners preferred to ID as independents. What is interesting is that they still voted Republicans and their change of self-description was more a way to signal disapproval than a change of loyalty.
The Trump numbers among independents suggest that here the discontent is much deeper and signal a tough November for Republican candidates of any hue.

The Gallup number in itself does not say much. They are not comparing the same pool of voters.

Independents are on the rise as shown here
http://news.gallup.com/poll/225056/americans-identification-independents-back-2017.aspx
However, accoring to Gallup, Trump has lost support amongst Republicans and Democrats as well as Independents, just more amongst the growing band of Independents.

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Second! Like Remain.....

And he's been tweeting again...

ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005985339121504256?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005988633747312640?s=20
ttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006003345360908295?s=20

I wonder if spending 2% on Defence is keeping the UK out of the flak....

Yep, our defence spending is almost certainly what’s keeping us out of the line of fire. In Trump’s mind we are one of few countries pulling their weight in NATO.

I've always felt this is a be careful what you wish for thing. Does Donald Trump really want Germany (and by extension the EU) to have the capability to militarily challenge the US?

Indeed so, although EU defence spending (inc UK) is less that half what the US spends for a larger population.

There’s also no way Trump is ever going to cut defence spending in the US because of the massive number of jobs it supports - and the propensity of the vast majority of them to vote Republican.

Britain is lucky that we have pretty balanced trade with the US, thus keeping us off Trump’s radar - unlike Germany and China.

I don't think 'keeping off Trump's radar' should be an aspiration for a proud European nation though it's an accurate assessment of our likely feebleness going forward

Morris_Dancer said:

As an aside, keeping a lazy eye on E3 and Elder Scrolls VI has, briefly, been announced. It'll be coming out after Starfield, though, so I'd guess it's still a year or two off. No word on the province in which it'll be set. High Rock possible (short trailer, just shows rocky mountains and grasslands beneath). Most people had thought it'd be in Valenwood, but it'd be slightly odd if that were the case and they didn't show a forest.

Given the popularity of Skyrim, they'll make a fortune on VI, unless they absolutely bugger it up.

Indeed. Though as influential and changing as Skyrim was in many ways personally I prefer later games like dragon age inquisition, or the witcher 3. I tried replaying skyrim this year and the lack of characters made it less interesting.