politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May has finally united the country on Brexit

System · June 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May has finally united the country on Brexit

What comes closest to your view on how well Brexit is going? All Brits: 10% well, 73% badly Remain: 5% well, 85% badlyLeave: 16% well, 70% badlyhttps://t.co/XV0uSCHH6y pic.twitter.com/0MM6LGCtxg

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Theuniondivvie · June 2018

First like Tessy once low expectations have been very slightly exceeded.

kjohnw · June 2018

has there been any polling on what type of brexit most people want?

The_Apocalypse · June 2018

FPT:

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:
Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....
Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......

Labour were in a worse position than that in the polls between 2015-17 and Corbyn didn’t go anywhere. Corbyn’s supporters will point to the Survation poll which came out yesterday, and to last GE. Only three years ago Tories were so excited by the prospect of a Corbyn led Labour Party there was ‘Tories 4 Corbyn’ and now you get the sense some want the party to be led by someone like Woodcock. How times change....

another_richard · June 2018

' A big shout out to the 4% who thought Brexit would go badly but think it is going well. '

Looks like they sampled Cameron and Osborne.

The_Apocalypse · June 2018

The public don’t really care about the process of Brexit. What will matter is when we leave, how the way we Brexit impacts people. That is what has the potential into influence votes.

another_richard said:
' A big shout out to the 4% who thought Brexit would go badly but think it is going well. '

Looks like they sampled Cameron and Osborne.

LOL.

HYUFD · June 2018

The_Apocalypse said:
FPT:

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:
Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....
Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
Labour were in a worse position than that in the polls between 2015-17 and Corbyn didn’t go anywhere. Corbyn’s supporters will point to the Survation poll which came out yesterday, and to last GE. Only three years ago Tories were so excited by the prospect of a Corbyn led Labour Party there was ‘Tories 4 Corbyn’ and now you get the sense some want the party to be led by someone like Woodcock. How times change....

The Survation poll that still had the Tories ahead?

ExiledInScotland · June 2018

another_richard said:
' A big shout out to the 4% who thought Brexit would go badly but think it is going well. '

Looks like they sampled Cameron and Osborne.

The 4% = "who thought Brexit would go badly..." = "I bet the B*****ds will sell us out and we won't leave" + ".. but think its going well" = "... but now its going so badly we'll end up with No Deal so hurrah". Or else they didn't understand the question.

HYUFD · June 2018

Remain voters think Brexit is going badly as we are leaving the single market and customs union, most Leave voters think Brexit is going badly as we have to pay an exit bill and have regulatory alignment to get any sort of FTA with the EU and resolve the Irish border issue and as we are having a transition period rather than ending free movement immediately after Brexit.

It is not very easy to reconcile the two

The_Apocalypse · June 2018

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:
FPT:

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:
Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....
Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
Labour were in a worse position than that in the polls between 2015-17 and Corbyn didn’t go anywhere. Corbyn’s supporters will point to the Survation poll which came out yesterday, and to last GE. Only three years ago Tories were so excited by the prospect of a Corbyn led Labour Party there was ‘Tories 4 Corbyn’ and now you get the sense some want the party to be led by someone like Woodcock. How times change....
The Survation poll that still had the Tories ahead?

Yes, you can check twitter if you don’t believe me. Several of his supporters are pointing to that poll.

PClipp · June 2018

Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.
With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories.

Ever the Tory optimist, Mr Eagles. The promises from the Brexiters were that there would be no downside. Mrs May has assumed the mantle of the diehard Brexiters - more fool she! - and she will get the blame. For her, there is no way out of this messy disaster of her own devising.

HYUFD · June 2018

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:
FPT:

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:
Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....
Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
Labour were in a worse position than that in the polls between 2015-17 and Corbyn didn’t go anywhere. Corbyn’s supporters will point to the Survation poll which came out yesterday, and to last GE. Only three years ago Tories were so excited by the prospect of a Corbyn led Labour Party there was ‘Tories 4 Corbyn’ and now you get the sense some want the party to be led by someone like Woodcock. How times change....
The Survation poll that still had the Tories ahead?
Yes, you can check twitter if you don’t believe me. Several of his supporters are pointing to that poll.

Grasping at straws then as Survation was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead at the last general election

AlastairMeeks · June 2018

I guess the unasked question is: what does good look like?

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.

PClipp · June 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
I guess the unasked question is: what does good look like?

Good in this case surely, is Go Back to Go.

MarkHopkins · June 2018

kjohnw said:
has there been any polling on what type of brexit most people want?

a) No Brexit

b) Red White and Blue

c) 27 Shades of Grey

felix · June 2018

PClipp said:
Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.
With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories.

Ever the Tory optimist, Mr Eagles. The promises from the Brexiters were that there would be no downside. Mrs May has assumed the mantle of the diehard Brexiters - more fool she! - and she will get the blame. For her, there is no way out of this messy disaster of her own devising.

There was no easy way out for T May following the GE result. The campaign was awful and the result was devastating. She has no long-term future as leader. I do however, admire her effort to get a fair Brexit which reflects the result of the vote. I am unconvinced that any of the alternatives available then or even now could really have done much better. She is operating against the largely hostile metropolitan media on the one hand and extremists on both sides within her party. Labour is massively split on the issue. The SNP are only concerned with independence and no other party has any traction with the public mood. Brexit will happen - it will be a fudge leaving the UK with some element of control over immigration. there will probably be something of an economic hit and then an adjustment before everyone moves on.

another_richard · June 2018

PClipp said:
Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.
With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories.

Ever the Tory optimist, Mr Eagles. The promises from the Brexiters were that there would be no downside. Mrs May has assumed the mantle of the diehard Brexiters - more fool she! - and she will get the blame. For her, there is no way out of this messy disaster of her own devising.

While the promise of Remainers was doom, disaster and no strawberries in the supermarkets.

So she would get the reward.

Lets face it whatever happens you will say its a failure and whatever happens you're never going to vote Conservative.

Meanwhile most people assume all politicians are liars and/or incompetents and don't believe a word of their promises in any case.

felix · June 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
I guess the unasked question is: what does good look like?

The answer is undoubtedly - meh.

Stuartinromford · June 2018

Odd thing is that the table shows a lot more people saying they expected Brexit to go badly than well. Now that could be sampling, it could be that lots expected short-term pain for long-term gain, but it could be a sign of a move towards a world where Brexit is like the Iraq war, where nobody admits to having supported it at the time.

felix · June 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.

Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.

felix · June 2018

Stuartinromford said:
Odd thing is that the table shows a lot more people saying they expected Brexit to go badly than well. Now that could be sampling, it could be that lots expected short-term pain for long-term gain, but it could be a sign of a move towards a world where Brexit is like the Iraq war, where nobody admits to having supported it at the time.

No - I think many of the Brexiters I argued against among family and friends said that they were not voting about money when they made their choice. I felt their fears about the UK were wrong but none expected to be better off financially as a result. Just as well really.

Yorkcity · June 2018

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.

Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.

another_richard · June 2018

another_richard said:

PClipp said:
Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.
With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories.

Ever the Tory optimist, Mr Eagles. The promises from the Brexiters were that there would be no downside. Mrs May has assumed the mantle of the diehard Brexiters - more fool she! - and she will get the blame. For her, there is no way out of this messy disaster of her own devising.
While the promise of Remainers was doom, disaster and no strawberries in the supermarkets.

So she would get the reward.

Lets face it whatever happens you will say its a failure and whatever happens you're never going to vote Conservative.

Meanwhile most people assume all politicians are liars and/or incompetents and don't believe a word of their promises in any case.

The one proviso I see about the people assuming all politicians are liars are that a few specific issues which are so fundamental that they don't expect a political party ever to betray on them.

For example nobody thinks that Labour would privatise the NHS or the Conservatives would unilaterally nuclear disarm or the SNP would oppose Scottish independence.

Or that the LibDems would triple student tuition fees.

And so the LibDems give a good example of what happens to a political party which fundamentally betrays its voters.

I don't expect any other party to follow likewise.

felix · June 2018

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shirtless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.

It does - and I was likewise surprised. However, it does not mean that the 'one more heave' theory will prevail - polling since the GE would suggest we are at 'Peak Corbyn' at best and maybe below it at worst. Remember the campaign was awful and the result was heavily influenced by the Brexit divide.

nunuone · June 2018

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.

Truth is most of the public really is not ideological.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

England are absolutely pummelling the Springboks in the egg chasing.

24-3 in less than 18 minutes.

tlg86 · June 2018

Who are these impostors playing rugby for England in South Africa.

nunuone · June 2018

73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.

another_richard · June 2018

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.

There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.

Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912

nunuone · June 2018

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.

Suggests only when negative consequences are actually experienced outside the E U will Leavers change their minds.

another_richard · June 2018

tlg86 said:
Who are these impostors playing rugby for England in South Africa.

A better question is who were the impostors playing rugby for England in February and March.

Yorkcity · June 2018

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.

You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low

Stuartinromford · June 2018

felix said:

Stuartinromford said:
Odd thing is that the table shows a lot more people saying they expected Brexit to go badly than well. Now that could be sampling, it could be that lots expected short-term pain for long-term gain, but it could be a sign of a move towards a world where Brexit is like the Iraq war, where nobody admits to having supported it at the time.
No - I think many of the Brexiters I argued against among family and friends said that they were not voting about money when they made their choice. I felt their fears about the UK were wrong but none expected to be better off financially as a result. Just as well really.

But the question isn't really asking about finances- just is it going well or badly in general. It's a shame the "don't know" box isn't split between good and bad expectations.

williamglenn · June 2018

nunuone said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Suggests only when negative consequences are actually experienced outside the E U will Leavers change their minds.

The thing that Brexit is still missing is a Tony Blairesque hate figure who the public can turn into the fall guy. The prime candidates are still playing pass the parcel hoping it won't be them.

AlastairMeeks · June 2018

Posted without comment:

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1005471022026514434?s=21

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Worth noting that whilst there was some chat on the prior thread about the UK not endearing itself to the EU during this process, the reverse is also true.

So, in answer to Mr. Glenn's point about a hate figure, it's possible that will, collectively, be the EU. A crucial aspect for future polling and public sentiment is who gets the blame for anything going wrong.

If the public are disenchanted with the Government but believe the EU has been deliberately intransigent, obstructive and unreasonable, they may blame the EU. For the domestic political atmosphere, that might prove better than deepening the trench warfare.

Theuniondivvie · June 2018

A load of cocks.
And a naked bike ride.

https://twitter.com/josh_salisbury/status/1005470963042078720

stodge · June 2018

felix said:

Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.

Political polling also suggests 40%+ of voters will have no truck with the Conservative Party.

another_richard · June 2018

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.
You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low

Unemployment is a big issue when its high or when its increasing rapidly.

When it isn't what people want is a nice pay rise and many people have been missing out of that for the last decade.

And there's no shortage or people who are leaving university £50k in debt or who are still renting a room in their thirties.

Gardenwalker · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912

Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.

blueblue · June 2018

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.
You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low

40% of the population have no idea how much worse they would have it if crazy socialists were ever allowed to seize power. Depressing times.

tlg86 · June 2018

another_richard said:

tlg86 said:
Who are these impostors playing rugby for England in South Africa.
A better question is who were the impostors playing rugby for England in February and March.

Looks like the lot from Feb/March have turned up.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.

I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

England are being Brexit shite now.

Sean_F · June 2018

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.
You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low
Unemployment is a big issue when its high or when its increasing rapidly.

When it isn't what people want is a nice pay rise and many people have been missing out of that for the last decade.

And there's no shortage or people who are leaving university £50k in debt or who are still renting a room in their thirties.

I think Currystar is correct, though, that very strong employment growth is one factor that buttresses Tory support. Not having to worry about finding a job is a major source of happiness. Back in the eighties, Labour led by about 40% on this issue. Now, the parties are level-pegging.

another_richard · June 2018

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.
You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low
Unemployment is a big issue when its high or when its increasing rapidly.

When it isn't what people want is a nice pay rise and many people have been missing out of that for the last decade.

And there's no shortage or people who are leaving university £50k in debt or who are still renting a room in their thirties.
I think Currystar is correct, though, that very strong employment growth is one factor that buttresses Tory support. Not having to worry about finding a job is a major source of happiness. Back in the eighties, Labour led by about 40% on this issue. Now, the parties are level-pegging.

Certainly - life is very good for lots of people at the moment.

I wonder if there is some psychological effect from all the construction work taking place - even if it has nothing to do with you it gives the impression of 'progress' and 'future prosperity'. It provides a counterbalance to the images of boarded up shops.

felix · June 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Posted without comment:

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1005471022026514434?s=21

When is your appointment? Someone had to ask...

felix · June 2018

stodge said:

felix said:

Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Political polling also suggests 40%+ of voters will have no truck with the Conservative Party.

Yup - I think the difference now is that these blocks have grown back to levels of the 60s and seem immovable.

another_richard · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.

Perhaps running an utterly crap campaign was all part of Osborne's masterplan to get the UK into the Euro.

Or perhaps not.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

UKIP really are a bunch of tossers, I expect soon they'll be proscribed like Combat 18.

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1005448714935328769

Yorkcity · June 2018

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.
You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low
Unemployment is a big issue when its high or when its increasing rapidly.

When it isn't what people want is a nice pay rise and many people have been missing out of that for the last decade.

And there's no shortage or people who are leaving university £50k in debt or who are still renting a room in their thirties.

Yes true , I live in York Outer .

My neighbours have extended the house twice, as their sons , both working in their mid twenties are still living there.
Labour posters in both their bedrooms at last GE.
York central has been Labour since 1992, but the spread to the suburbs of York, surprised me.
As even Blair did no good around here.
Housing problems are a major concern for many families.

felix · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.

Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.

If Brexit turns into an economic slump then it could happen.

As we saw with the dementia tax, voters don't like the prospect of becoming poorer.

Yorkcity · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP really are a bunch of tossers, I expect soon they'll be proscribed like Combat 18.

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1005448714935328769

Morrissey , has sympathy also for Tommy Robinson.

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/jun/07/morrissey-expresses-sympathy-for-jailed-edl-founder-tommy-robinson

williamglenn · June 2018

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.

The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.

Gardenwalker · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
If Brexit turns into an economic slump then it could happen.

As we saw with the dementia tax, voters don't like the prospect of becoming poorer.

Well Boris is now predicting a “meltdown”.
But we shouldn’t panic, apparently. No need to worry our pretty little heads.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

Yorkcity said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP really are a bunch of tossers, I expect soon they'll be proscribed like Combat 18.

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1005448714935328769
Morrissey , has sympathy also for Tommy Robinson.

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/jun/07/morrissey-expresses-sympathy-for-jailed-edl-founder-tommy-robinson

Support for Tommy Robinson is a 'moron detector'

williamglenn · June 2018

.

Elliot · June 2018

This is what happens when you embrace Brexit but then try to do a Remain version of it. Remainers will never be happy as they oppose Brexit, and Leavers will be frustrated their preferences were sold out.

The best way to go about it is to sign a deal with the EU and quickly follow it up with deals with other countries and a new tougher immigration system. I suspect that would end up with 60% support, from those who want immigration reduced.

Sean_F · June 2018

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.

One can never say never, but that seems fanciful.

Sean_F · June 2018

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.
You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low
Unemployment is a big issue when its high or when its increasing rapidly.

When it isn't what people want is a nice pay rise and many people have been missing out of that for the last decade.

And there's no shortage or people who are leaving university £50k in debt or who are still renting a room in their thirties.
Yes true , I live in York Outer .

My neighbours have extended the house twice, as their sons , both working in their mid twenties are still living there.
Labour posters in both their bedrooms at last GE.
York central has been Labour since 1992, but the spread to the suburbs of York, surprised me.
As even Blair did no good around here.
Housing problems are a major concern for many families.

York Outer was marginal on its creation, but is now pretty safe Conservative.

williamglenn · June 2018

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
One can never say never, but that seems fanciful.

Is it fanciful that we would have a border poll during transition? The question of "what next?" for GB would be acute in those circumstances.

HYUFD · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.

If the Referendum had included joining the Euro as a requirement of staying in the EU it would have been at least 70% Leave, I would certainly have voted Leave rather than the Remain vote I eventually cast

kle4 · June 2018

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.

Not necessarily. The most serious and ideological will be less inclined to be satisfied with a fudge than the public might.

HYUFD · June 2018

Elliot said:
This is what happens when you embrace Brexit but then try to do a Remain version of it. Remainers will never be happy as they oppose Brexit, and Leavers will be frustrated their preferences were sold out.

The best way to go about it is to sign a deal with the EU and quickly follow it up with deals with other countries and a new tougher immigration system. I suspect that would end up with 60% support, from those who want immigration reduced.

Except we cannot do a deal with the EU without regulatory alignment and an exit bill as Barnier has made clear and reducing immigration immediately post Brexit means no transition period

HYUFD · June 2018

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.

Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland

ExiledInScotland · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
England are absolutely pummelling the Springboks in the egg chasing.

24-3 in less than 18 minutes.

Reaslly wish you hadn't said that. It's your fault now...

williamglenn · June 2018

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland

Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.

RobD · June 2018

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.

The successor state can be called whatever it wants to be called, surely?

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

ExiledInScotland said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
England are absolutely pummelling the Springboks in the egg chasing.

24-3 in less than 18 minutes.
Reaslly wish you hadn't said that. It's your fault now...

England are going to get absolutely pummelled in this test.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.
The successor state can be called whatever it wants to be called, surely?

There's rules.

It's the reason why Macedonia was known as 'The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia' for a while.

There was a dispute between themselves and Greece over what constitutes Macedonia.

logical_song · June 2018

williamglenn said:
.

Is this a caption competition?

Sean_F · June 2018

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
One can never say never, but that seems fanciful.
Is it fanciful that we would have a border poll during transition? The question of "what next?" for GB would be acute in those circumstances.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Northern Ireland voted to join the Irish Republic. Why would the other 62 m inhabitants of this country change their minds over the Euro? If Scotland had voted for independence in 2014, it would have had no bearing at all on the attitude of voters in RUK to Euro membership.

Gardenwalker · June 2018

Brexit is dying.

Philosophically, it’s bankrupt. Many of its erstwhile backers have gone quiet or publicly disowned the project. The public are bored it with it, or associate it with calamity.

Only Rees Mogg and the ERG seem to care anymore but they have already lost the main arguments. Corbyn remains privately loyal of course, but cannot bring himself to say it out loud.

I’m not even sure David David believes in it intellectually, although he remains committed to seeing it through for career reasons.

Like a house with rotten timbers and worm eaten joists, it still appears solid, but is one strong gust away from complete collapse.

Ironically, an exit to EEA might be the only way to keep Brexit alive, as it at least coherent. But perhaps only Gove or Johnson are capable of of leading that pivot.

murali_s · June 2018

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.

Brexit = a calamity!
Brexiteers = Idiots!

The sh*t hasn't even begun to hit the fan yet. God help this country once it does!

HYUFD · June 2018

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.

Not necessarily given its full title is the United Kingdom of Great Britain AND Northern Ireland.

PClipp · June 2018

another_richard said:

PClipp said:
Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.
With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories.
Ever the Tory optimist, Mr Eagles. The promises from the Brexiters were that there would be no downside. Mrs May has assumed the mantle of the diehard Brexiters - more fool she! - and she will get the blame. For her, there is no way out of this messy disaster of her own devising.
While the promise of Remainers was doom, disaster and no strawberries in the supermarkets.
So she would get the reward.
Lets face it whatever happens you will say its a failure and whatever happens you're never going to vote Conservative.
Meanwhile most people assume all politicians are liars and/or incompetents and don't believe a word of their promises in any case.

That was the promise of the Conservative leaders who took control of the Remain campaign, Mr Richard. Nothing to do with me.

If you were to rephrase your last paragraph as "all Conservative politicians are liars and/or incompetents and (people) don't believe a word of their promises in any case", then I think I would agree with you.

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Mr. Eagles, yes indeed.

The Greeks do like pretending Alexander was Greek too. Which is tosh.

another_richard · June 2018

logical_song said:

williamglenn said:
.
Is this a caption competition?

So how many of the 'skilled doctors and engineers' are you willing to accept ?

williamglenn · June 2018

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.
Not necessarily given its full title is the United Kingdom of Great Britain AND Northern Ireland.

Yes, it's a union between the Kingdom of Great Britain and (Northern) Ireland.

Sean_F · June 2018

murali_s said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
Brexit = a calamity!
Brexiteers = Idiots!

The sh*t hasn't even begun to hit the fan yet. God help this country once it does!

It's a calamity for those who are committed to the EU, not to the rest of us.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2018

It is entirely possible that if Scotland and/or Northern Ireland secede the UK will be known as The Former United Kingdom, or FUK for short.

logical_song · June 2018

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.
The successor state can be called whatever it wants to be called, surely?

Northern Ireland was created so that it would have a Unionist majority - hence the 6 counties of Ulster and the fact that Donegal is almost isolated from the rest of the RoI.
Without Northern Ireland, Great Britain would be the geographically correct term.

williamglenn · June 2018

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
One can never say never, but that seems fanciful.
Is it fanciful that we would have a border poll during transition? The question of "what next?" for GB would be acute in those circumstances.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Northern Ireland voted to join the Irish Republic. Why would the other 62 m inhabitants of this country change their minds over the Euro? If Scotland had voted for independence in 2014, it would have had no bearing at all on the attitude of voters in RUK to Euro membership.

It would starkly demonstrate that Brexit was a historic mistake. Euro membership would just be part of the package of accepting that our destiny is to play a full role in European integration.

Sean_F · June 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
It is entirely possible that if Scotland and/or Northern Ireland secede the UK will be known as The Former United Kingdom, or FUK for short.

If anything, the independence referendum rejuvenated Scottish Unionism.

logical_song · June 2018

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.
Not necessarily given its full title is the United Kingdom of Great Britain AND Northern Ireland.

Yes, 'Great Britain' united with 'Northern Ireland'.

another_richard · June 2018

PClipp said:

another_richard said:

PClipp said:
Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.
With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories.
Ever the Tory optimist, Mr Eagles. The promises from the Brexiters were that there would be no downside. Mrs May has assumed the mantle of the diehard Brexiters - more fool she! - and she will get the blame. For her, there is no way out of this messy disaster of her own devising.
While the promise of Remainers was doom, disaster and no strawberries in the supermarkets.
So she would get the reward.
Lets face it whatever happens you will say its a failure and whatever happens you're never going to vote Conservative.
Meanwhile most people assume all politicians are liars and/or incompetents and don't believe a word of their promises in any case.
That was the promise of the Conservative leaders who took control of the Remain campaign, Mr Richard. Nothing to do with me.

If you were to rephrase your last paragraph as "all Conservative politicians are liars and/or incompetents and (people) don't believe a word of their promises in any case", then I think I would agree with you.

Considering that the LibDem contribution to the issue was to predict a strawberry shortage LAST YEAR I don't think anyone is particularly bothered by what they might say.

Not to mention Uncle Vince and his gang are already known to be liars after student tuition fees.

HYUFD · June 2018

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
One can never say never, but that seems fanciful.
Is it fanciful that we would have a border poll during transition? The question of "what next?" for GB would be acute in those circumstances.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Northern Ireland voted to join the Irish Republic. Why would the other 62 m inhabitants of this country change their minds over the Euro? If Scotland had voted for independence in 2014, it would have had no bearing at all on the attitude of voters in RUK to Euro membership.
It would starkly demonstrate that Brexit was a historic mistake. Euro membership would just be part of the package of accepting that our destiny is to play a full role in European integration.

Rubbish. If anything it would accelerate English nationalism, the most Unionist figures in Scotland were all staunch Remainers

logical_song · June 2018

Sean_F said:

murali_s said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
Brexit = a calamity!
Brexiteers = Idiots!

The sh*t hasn't even begun to hit the fan yet. God help this country once it does!
It's a calamity for those who are committed to the EU, not to the rest of us.

73% of Brits disagree with you.

Jonathan · June 2018

The Balkanization of Britain already well underway, accelerated by Brexit. Tragic.

Sean_F · June 2018

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
One can never say never, but that seems fanciful.
Is it fanciful that we would have a border poll during transition? The question of "what next?" for GB would be acute in those circumstances.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Northern Ireland voted to join the Irish Republic. Why would the other 62 m inhabitants of this country change their minds over the Euro? If Scotland had voted for independence in 2014, it would have had no bearing at all on the attitude of voters in RUK to Euro membership.
It would starkly demonstrate that Brexit was a historic mistake. Euro membership would just be part of the package of accepting that our destiny is to play a full role in European integration.

It would demonstrate only that Protestants had been outbred. Most people would simply accept that our destinies were different.

williamglenn · June 2018

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
One can never say never, but that seems fanciful.
Is it fanciful that we would have a border poll during transition? The question of "what next?" for GB would be acute in those circumstances.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Northern Ireland voted to join the Irish Republic. Why would the other 62 m inhabitants of this country change their minds over the Euro? If Scotland had voted for independence in 2014, it would have had no bearing at all on the attitude of voters in RUK to Euro membership.
It would starkly demonstrate that Brexit was a historic mistake. Euro membership would just be part of the package of accepting that our destiny is to play a full role in European integration.
Rubbish. If anything it would accelerate English nationalism, the most Unionist figures in Scotland were all staunch Remainers

English nationhood is not incompatible with European federalism. I would argue that it's actually the best way for the English to be reconciled to becoming a modern European country.

HYUFD · June 2018

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.
Not necessarily given its full title is the United Kingdom of Great Britain AND Northern Ireland.
Yes, it's a union between the Kingdom of Great Britain and (Northern) Ireland.

Northern Ireland was never a Kingdom unlike Scotland or England but a province, It was not even a principality like Wales

Jonathan · June 2018

Sean_F said:

murali_s said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
Brexit = a calamity!
Brexiteers = Idiots!

The sh*t hasn't even begun to hit the fan yet. God help this country once it does!
It's a calamity for those who are committed to the EU, not to the rest of us.

Surely even the most ardent Brexiteer must be concerned about the division it has created in the UK.

HYUFD · June 2018

Gardenwalker said:
Brexit is dying.

Philosophically, it’s bankrupt. Many of its erstwhile backers have gone quiet or publicly disowned the project. The public are bored it with it, or associate it with calamity.

Only Rees Mogg and the ERG seem to care anymore but they have already lost the main arguments. Corbyn remains privately loyal of course, but cannot bring himself to say it out loud.

I’m not even sure David David believes in it intellectually, although he remains committed to seeing it through for career reasons.

Like a house with rotten timbers and worm eaten joists, it still appears solid, but is one strong gust away from complete collapse.

Ironically, an exit to EEA might be the only way to keep Brexit alive, as it at least coherent. But perhaps only Gove or Johnson are capable of of leading that pivot.

Brexit is dying? Gold Standard Survation had 50% of voters still backing Leave only yesterday

Yorkcity · June 2018

Sean_F said:

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

I wonder if this coupled with other polling indicates the electorate thinks little of the Government, and less of the Opposition.
Political polling suggests that a firm 40+% of voters will have no truck with an extreme left-wing Labour party.
Should scare you shitless then that 40% are willing to give it a shot.

It certainly surprised me at the last GE.

I always thought 25% would be the most even a left wing Labour Party would achieve.
There seems to be 20-25% who want to nationalise everything - supermarkets, car factories, travel agencies - according to the opinion polls.

Now add on those who have little to lose from a Corbyn government or those who expect to be protected and it amounts up to quite a lot.

And then add on some more for Labour loyalists and Conservative haters.
You could be correct , but I never thought they would turn out to vote , at that level.

There must be plenty pissed off , with current arrangements , even with unemployment so low
Unemployment is a big issue when its high or when its increasing rapidly.

When it isn't what people want is a nice pay rise and many people have been missing out of that for the last decade.

And there's no shortage or people who are leaving university £50k in debt or who are still renting a room in their thirties.
Yes true , I live in York Outer .

My neighbours have extended the house twice, as their sons , both working in their mid twenties are still living there.
Labour posters in both their bedrooms at last GE.
York central has been Labour since 1992, but the spread to the suburbs of York, surprised me.
As even Blair did no good around here.
Housing problems are a major concern for many families.
York Outer was marginal on its creation, but is now pretty safe Conservative.

True Sean , York Outer was marginal between Conservatives and Lib Dem not Labour.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/York_Outer_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Labour has gone from 9k and 3rd place in 2010 , to 21k and second place to the Conservatives in 2017 a big change.

I believe Labour are targeting it .
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

I think they have no chance .

Sean_F · June 2018

Jonathan said:

Sean_F said:

murali_s said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
Brexit = a calamity!
Brexiteers = Idiots!

The sh*t hasn't even begun to hit the fan yet. God help this country once it does!
It's a calamity for those who are committed to the EU, not to the rest of us.
Surely even the most ardent Brexiteer must be concerned about the division it has created in the UK.

Concerned, yes. But, it's no calamity.

logical_song · June 2018

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:
Brexit is dying.

Philosophically, it’s bankrupt. Many of its erstwhile backers have gone quiet or publicly disowned the project. The public are bored it with it, or associate it with calamity.

Only Rees Mogg and the ERG seem to care anymore but they have already lost the main arguments. Corbyn remains privately loyal of course, but cannot bring himself to say it out loud.

I’m not even sure David David believes in it intellectually, although he remains committed to seeing it through for career reasons.

Like a house with rotten timbers and worm eaten joists, it still appears solid, but is one strong gust away from complete collapse.

Ironically, an exit to EEA might be the only way to keep Brexit alive, as it at least coherent. But perhaps only Gove or Johnson are capable of of leading that pivot.
Brexit is dying? Gold Standard Survation had 50% of voters still backing Leave only yesterday

...but 73% think it's going badly today.

williamglenn · June 2018

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunuone said:
73% think Brexit is going badly yet badly anyone has changed their minds on it. Interesting.
Not quite

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1005064760650534912
Now that the “ideologues” begins Brexit are pretty much all saying Brexit is crap it can only be a matter of time before the public follow suit.
I'll laugh like a drain if Brexit leads to the UK ultimately rejoining the EU and signing up to the Euro.
Speaking personally this would be ideal for emigres like myself. However it seems highly unlikley.
The most unlikely aspect of that scenario is the idea that the UK would rejoin. The UK will be dismembered and the constituent parts will adopt the Euro.

If there were a border poll during the transition deal, Northern Ireland would obviously join the Euro, and it would be the ideal time for either Great Britain or an independent Scotland and the former Kingdom of England to re-accede to the EU.
Wales will stay in the UK regardless, the Welsh voted Leave.

Scotland would probably favour a Scandinavian style relationship with the EU if it ever went independent ie in the EU or the single market but not in the Eurozone.

Northern Ireland still has a Unionist majority and there is no evidence of any enthusiasm for the Euro amongst the population of Northern Ireland
Once Northern Ireland has gone, there is no UK. The successor state would be Great Britain.
Not necessarily given its full title is the United Kingdom of Great Britain AND Northern Ireland.
Yes, it's a union between the Kingdom of Great Britain and (Northern) Ireland.
Northern Ireland was never a Kingdom unlike Scotland or England but a province, It was not even a principality like Wales

I put Northern in brackets because the UK was originally created as a union between Great Britain and Ireland. The Northern bit was only inserted after Irish independence.

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