politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Brexit is ever to be reversed it’ll be down to the 13% who

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

I've not had a problem obtaining them.

SunnyJim said:

I believe hardcore Remainers over-estimate the importance of Brexit to the vast majority who have moved on beyond being irritated by the incessant whining.

I think you've got this back to front. It's precisely because people don't care about Brexit that they will baulk at any tangible negative effects from it.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 16, we did. There were a number of significant harvest failures and famines during the reign of Edward III, before the EU existed. If we don't learn the lessons of history, we're doomed to repeat them.

[Special note for Mr. Eagles - this is a silly post. Please do not consider this to be a serious historical comment].

Don’t worry, I work on the premise that all your history related posts are silly.

I mean who in their right mind thinks the architect of losing the Second Punic War was a good general.

Mr. Eagles, if you actually realised you were implicitly criticising Hanno and the Peace Party, I'd be delighted that you'd seen the error of your ways.

As I know you're attempting to criticise one of the world's greatest ever generals, alas, I can only shake my head in despair.

Mr. Eagles, Scipio agreed Hannibal had the better battle plan.

Scipio had almost every advantage at Zama. His troops were better, because a decade of marauding around Italy undefeated had lost many men by attrition for Hannibal, they were better rested, Scipio had spent months just training them in Sicily. Hannibal had mostly raw recruits and rather unimpressive soldiers.

The lesson of the Second Punic War is that individual brilliance does not trump robust political/military institutions. Rome five centuries later would've surrendered at least after Cannae, if not before. The refusal to surrender, the determination to fight on, whatever the cost, is what won it for Rome.

Mr. Eagles, .....

Hannibal had to fight Scipio, and thereby leave Italy, because the other Carthaginians weren't capable enough to see Scipio off. The absence of advantages was due to the weakness of the Carthaginian system.

As for odds against, Lake Trasimene and Cannae say hello.

On the prospective thread: the EU fantasises about being the Roman Empire [Republic, at the time of the Punic Wars, but people often use Empire as shorthand for the entire Roman period] reborn. That's because they're damned idiots. Rome conquered with the sword and interfered minimally (provided you paid your taxes) with those it ruled. The EU uses bureaucracy and interferes in an ever-increasing manner.

brendan16 said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

I've not had a problem obtaining them.

It's amazing we didn't all starve before 2004!

We issued seasonal visas.

TOPPING said:

Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed

Alanbrooke said:

Article on US EU trade war

Average tariff on cars US - 2.5% EU - 10%
Average tarrif on all goods US - 3.5% EU - 5.2%
Free trade imports as % of total US - 48% EU -26%

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article176832903/US-Strafzoelle-Europas-Zerrissenheit-ist-Trumps-grosser-Vorteil.html

All a bit one sided

Those numbers are incorrect. (and in the case of cars misleading. The EU does not differentiate between cars and light trucks while the US imposes a 25% tariff on light trucks which includes pick up trucks and larger suvs)

The World Bank has the best data on average tariff rates : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is like cock slapping an alligator then acting surprised when he bites off your todger.

"Hey! Sacred island! Watch the language!"

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed

Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.

Dura_Ace said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

But thanks, you’ve inspired me to do a thread comparing the Leavers to Hannibal and the Second Punic War.

Is that why Gavin Williamson was checking out the elephants?

To be provided by a private sector Pachyderm Fulfillment Partner who are contracted to supply a fixed number of elephant-hours per year under a commercial agreement that was drafted by a fucking idiot in the MoD and approved by a second fucking idiot in the MoD.

And then, as it is a mounted role, driven by a third fucking idiot in 1st Queen's Pachyderm Hussars.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

https://twitter.com/tt9m/status/1001789350462574592

Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?

Muslim Mayor of Londonstan....at a guess.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

https://twitter.com/tt9m/status/1001789350462574592

Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?

It's stumped me. I suspect EDLogic requires a brown person to be blamed, and they couldn't think of anyone else.

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

https://twitter.com/tt9m/status/1001789350462574592

Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?

It's stumped me. I suspect EDLogic requires a brown person to be blamed, and they couldn't think of anyone else.

Well Gerard Batten was blaming Sajid Javid the other day, not realising it is David Gauke in charge of prisons and the justice system.

I’m sure they’ll blame Humza Yousaf soon.

Is Sadiq Khan 7 foot tall or is Tommy Robinson a midget?

F1: rumours abound Toro Rosso are considering replacing Hartley. One name in the frame is Kubica.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

I think we should have a picture entitled "The Martyrdom of St. Thomas" with Robinson being stoned to death by various brown-skinned people, while staring up at Heaven.

Why? I thought the EDL were anti-gay also?

Theuniondivvie said:

We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

https://twitter.com/tt9m/status/1001789350462574592

The sign around his neck makes no sense. Who put it there? That's my question!

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

I think we should have a picture entitled "The Martyrdom of St. Thomas" with Robinson being stoned to death by various brown-skinned people, while staring up at Heaven.

On checking Wiki there doesn't seem to be a record of how the original St Thomas was martyred. However he appears to have been killed in India after preaching for several years there, and pleasingly for a time his tomb was 'maintained by a Muslim who kept a lamp burning there'.

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1002128301010415618

CarlottaVance said:

Anyone know what this is about?

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1002080118913798144

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/james-cusick/george-osborne-s-london-evening-standard-promises-positive-news-coverage-to-uber-goo

Alanbrooke said:

FTSE reasons for not appointing women board members

The top 10 excuses for not appointing women were:
"I don't think women fit comfortably into the board environment"
"There aren't that many women with the right credentials and depth of experience to sit on the board - the issues covered are extremely complex"
"Most women don't want the hassle or pressure of sitting on a board"
"Shareholders just aren't interested in the make-up of the board, so why should we be?"
"My other board colleagues wouldn't want to appoint a woman on our board"
"All the 'good' women have already been snapped up"
"We have one woman already on the board, so we are done - it is someone else's turn"
"There aren't any vacancies at the moment - if there were I would think about appointing a woman"
"We need to build the pipeline from the bottom - there just aren't enough senior women in this sector"
"I can't just appoint a woman because I want to"

I am available.

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

maybe there's shortage of strawberries in London but out here in the sticks there are loads of them. Shops and market stalls are packed.

move to Essex faster and you wont have a problem

I used to really enjoy ‘picking your own’ farms for fruit and a kid and would be happy to do so now.

Those seem to have largely gone out of business down my way.

Casino_Royale said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

maybe there's shortage of strawberries in London but out here in the sticks there are loads of them. Shops and market stalls are packed.

move to Essex faster and you wont have a problem

I used to really enjoy ‘picking your own’ farms for fruit and a kid and would be happy to do so now.

Those seem to have largely gone out of business down my way.

A friend of mine works at Garsons near Esher. He said they never used to have problems with people nicking the food until quite recently. He blames Londoners.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Is Sadiq Khan 7 foot tall or is Tommy Robinson a midget?

No, it's just nonsense on stilts...

TGOHF said:

DExEU to be wound up next year after Brexit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/31/brexit-department-absorbed-foreign-office-next-year-according/

According to one insider, the Government feels it has “give people concrete evidence that we’ve left the EU. That has to happen as soon as we’ve left.”

And the best thing they could think of to prove we've left was firing David Davis?

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

Yes, seeing as Venus never comes inside the earth-moon orbit that particular view is not possible.

A suitable lunar detonation of a nuclear device would probably do the trick.

On the nuclear artwork theme, sad to see the Brixton 'Nuclear dawn' https://tinyurl.com/m62e88j mural has been defaced.

It has definitely gone downhill since https://tinyurl.com/ycf55b2h - I remember seeing it in person circa 2001 and there was no graffiti on the graffiti so to speak.

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

DExEU to be wound up next year after Brexit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/31/brexit-department-absorbed-foreign-office-next-year-according/

According to one insider, the Government feels it has “give people concrete evidence that we’ve left the EU. That has to happen as soon as we’ve left.”

And the best thing they could think of to prove we've left was firing David Davis?

Thats the civil service for ya..

Plus, as many of the brightest and the best worked out, why work for a time-limited department which you are aiming to make irrelevant within two years as a matter of priority.

Japan's ruling party calls for a doubling of defense spending as % of GDP:
http://aviationweek.com/awindefense/japan-ruling-party-calls-double-defense-fraction-gdp

I predict that there will be a small negative impact lasting for 1-2 years and after that we'll be better off.
It will make almost no difference to me personally, but it will be nice not to hear about 'directives' from Brussels and the EU court and I'm looking forward to not seeing that horrible little blue and yellow flag on my driving licence and the words changed on the front of my passport, it doesn't really matter about the colour but as they're being reprinted anyway why not dark blue.
The EU will soon unravel in a few years with countries leaving the Eurozone and other countries leaving the whole thing. It will end up being replaced by another organisation that just deals with trade only and there will be a movement in favour for joining that.

The Brexit Dividend

• Slightly fewer strawberries
• Better than the Black Death

Nigelb said:

Japan's ruling party calls for a doubling of defense spending as % of GDP:
http://aviationweek.com/awindefense/japan-ruling-party-calls-double-defense-fraction-gdp

The next major war is China v Japan. Thankfully a long way away.

Mr. L, depends how the islands dispute progresses.

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

It's almost as good as the transition from "glorious sunlit uplands" to "not as bad as the Black Death"

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1001835452603731973

Justice secretary David Gauke wants to use prison labour to bring in the harvest now that the Polish workers won't be here.

Naturally in Britain the threat of famine gives rise to jokes about strawberries and Pimms.

In another sign of the immensity of the looming trouble, the loonies are coming out of the woodwork. I don't mean rational people I disagree with or who make inappropriate jokes, but proper loonies, such as the Sustainable Food Trust, a bunch of Steinerite crackpots who get airtime on the BBC as if they were sane contributors to a debate. (If anyone is in doubt about "biodynamic" farming, start by finding out about the cow horns.)

Regarding the thesis of this thread, many of the 13% may not be from the lower orders. Perhaps most believe that they will continue to fare well, or perhaps better than in recent years, even while half of the Morlocks get typhoid? Which isn't to say some of them won't become Remainers and put their schadenfreude on the backburner if their confidence erodes owing to banking problems, insufficiently strong gates, and not being able to see beyond the ends of their noses. But a proportion of them have a more rational basis than the majority of the population for believing they will do well when the economy won't.

Brexit must be stopped. The idea that it can happen and then get reversed within a year or two without even a hint of Armageddon is naive. WTO is much more likely than BINO. BINO won't happen.

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed

Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.

Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid

What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?

rkrkrk said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed

Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.

Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid

What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?

(A) stoked inflation

(B) wasted firepower

(C) reinforced the Greenspan put

Anazina said:

The Brexit Dividend

• Slightly fewer strawberries
• Better than the Black Death

The next Bus writes itself...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

The Brexit Dividend

• Slightly fewer strawberries
• Better than the Black Death

The claims of a strawberry shortage, especially for Wimbledon, is now a yearly story like the NHS winter crisis that will be worse than any Winter crisis before it....At quick google and even on the first page of results, I can find stories dating back as far back as 2007.

I believe last year was in fact a record year for British strawberry production.

Otoh the NHS winter crisis was the worst on record and is likely to extend into the summer. In other news, half of pb has backed Jeremy Hunt to be next Prime Minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2018-04-02/nhs-winter-crisis-will-extend-into-summer-doctors-warn/

Scott_P said:

Anazina said:

The Brexit Dividend

• Slightly fewer strawberries
• Better than the Black Death

The next Bus writes itself...

Let Germany bail out Italy - not us.

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Zinedine Zidane says he is stepping down as Real Madrid boss, just five days after leading them to a third straight Champions League triumph.

Real well out on their own with 13 european cups now. And three in a row for Zidane, his succesor is really on a hiding to nothing with their current aging team.

A wise move by Zidane. He can do no more. Better to leave on a high and head for the condo on the Riviera.

Charles said:

rkrkrk said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed

Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.

Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid

What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?

(A) stoked inflation

(B) wasted firepower

(C) reinforced the Greenspan put

Given inflation was well below target when he did it, stoking inflation doesn't seem a particularly big downside. I don't really know what you mean by wasted firepower either, he's now gone back to 0.5% so surely has just as much room to cut as he did before, i.e. not very much!

I can understand why Brexiteers got upset with his pronouncements in the run-up to Brexit on the economics risks - I also thought it would have been better for him to stay out of it more. But it seems strange to me that they would be so upset that he intervened to boost growth post the vote. It would surely have been much worse for them if he'd done nothing and we had seen more of a decline in growth.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Denmark has joined several European countries in banning garments that cover the face, including Islamic veils such as the niqab or burqa, in a move condemned by human rights campaigners as “neither necessary nor proportionate”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/31/denmark-passes-law-banning-burqa-and-niqab

Wives of Saudi diplomats in Copenhagen are immune?

Admittedly the wife of a Danish diplomat wouldn't be advised to wear a miniskirt in Riyadh.

An Algerian businessman has offered to pay any fines imposed:

"Speaking to Anadolu Agency in front of the Danish parliament, Rasheed Nekkaz said that he had already paid 1,538 fines for women facing similar circumstances in six countries, including France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany."

Mr. Borough, that's a stark poll finding. Yet the eurozone-sceptical parties remain the most popular.

As I said the other day, it's like the old Roman expression "holding a wolf by the ears." Italy can't hold on and it can't let go.

It's why I think they'll stay in. The steps of integration are deliberately small so nation states and electorates travel a long way from their ideal position before they realise what's happened. By the time they decide they want to change things, the choice is small steps away from where they want to be, or a huge leap (necessarily incurring some disruption and uncertainty) in the other direction.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1002135592061333504

Howe've the populists do in a wave of discontent, stats like that will give them pause on many options.

David_Evershed said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Japan's ruling party calls for a doubling of defense spending as % of GDP:
http://aviationweek.com/awindefense/japan-ruling-party-calls-double-defense-fraction-gdp

The next major war is China v Japan. Thankfully a long way away.

Last played in black and white.

Inappropriate choice of colours, surely!

rkrkrk said:

Charles said:

rkrkrk said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed

Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.

Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid

What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?

(A) stoked inflation

(B) wasted firepower

(C) reinforced the Greenspan put

Given inflation was well below target when he did it, stoking inflation doesn't seem a particularly big downside. I don't really know what you mean by wasted firepower either, he's now gone back to 0.5% so surely has just as much room to cut as he did before, i.e. not very much!

I can understand why Brexiteers got upset with his pronouncements in the run-up to Brexit on the economics risks - I also thought it would have been better for him to stay out of it more. But it seems strange to me that they would be so upset that he intervened to boost growth post the vote. It would surely have been much worse for them if he'd done nothing and we had seen more of a decline in growth.

He did it in face of a big drop inthe FX rate which was expected to feed through the inflation.

In wasted firepower he fired his one shot preemptively

The Greenspan put is the worst - moral hazard is a real problem in finance

And this is my views as an economist and investor not a Brexiteer.

(Just about to take off so when I don’t reply it’s because of that)