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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori Political Monitor for April

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori Political Monitor for April

Mr Miliband has the highest net satisfaction rating of the three main party leaders, on minus 16 compared with Mr Cameron’s minus 28 and Mr Clegg’s dire minus 44. Only Mr Farage has a positive net rating, at 8.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • So even the voters think Ed is crap, not just the Blairites?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    FPT: Mr. G, that is silly, and you know it.

    Assets and liabilities can (and should) be divided. But the question of currency is an ongoing concern. Are you really saying that a non-British nation should have the right to use the British concern, have the Bank of England as lender of last resort and (presumably) have a say over interest rates whilst at the same time having total independence over fiscal policy?

    That's Sturgeon's position, and it's distinctly fishy.

    It's deranged. An agreement could be reached over a common currency but it would necessarily involve some degree of fiscal limits for Scotland. Or, Scotland could have its own currency. But you can't have independence over fiscal policy whilst claiming the currency of a foreign country. It's mad. Why not choose the US dollar, or the Vietnamese dong?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: practice is at a more civilised hour, so I plan on offering a qualifying tip this time round. This means the pre-qualifying piece should be on Saturday morning, rather than tomorrow.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    FPT on the BBC:

    I would pay double the license fee if they would just stop broadcasting those dreadful weekday 6.30 pm "comedies".

    When I was young and rebellious all comedy on the BBC was stuff my parents liked. Now that I'm older it's all left-wing student "humour" (note: it's not humorous).

    It's as though they're doing it to spite me.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    FPT

    UKIP PEB viewed 21,333 times on their official channel
    LIb Dems PEB viewed 2,086 on theirs
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Miliband struggling to get into "substantively positive" territory still. IOS will be disappointed.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    So is Ed turning in to William Hague as leader ? He's taken the job at too young an age and has blown his chances.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    So is Ed turning in to William Hague as leader ?

    I suspect he'll do a *lot* better in the next GE than Hague did in 2001!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Ed and Emma Double Surname just got an ice cream in South Shields
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013

    So is Ed turning in to William Hague as leader ? He's taken the job at too young an age and has blown his chances.

    I've been thinking for a while that there are very striking similarities between the two. Hague was lucky enough not to become PM when not ready for it.

    Meanwhile, what on earth is François Hollande smoking?

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/04/17/20002-20130417ARTFIG00530-hollande-la-depression-se-prolonge-en-europe-a-cause-de-l-austerite.php

    It's a very novel approach, attacking 'austerity' whilst carrying out France's most rapid fiscal squeeze since WWII (much faster than anything Osborne is doing). Utterly bizarre, especially given that the French deficit is quite low anyway (although total debt is even worse than ours).
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    Why are gender gaps only worth commenting on when they show the Tories are behind with women?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    The count of the first ballot to elect Italian President of Republic just finished. Marini failed to get the 2/3 required. He needed 672 votes. He got just over 500.
    It was a secret ballot, but it's obvious (also given what it has been said last night) that PD is hugely divided and many didn't vote Marini this morning.

    Around 200 MPs overall didn't vote as their parties indicated.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited April 2013
    Here is an amusing little graph, the climate models versus reality:

    http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Temperature_CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSS_WUWT_18Apr13.png

    For Commentary to put it into context you can read this:

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/18/part-2-thomas-stocker-interview-luning-ipcc-increasingly-unable-to-maneuver-detached-from-reality/

    And for a complete belly laugh you can read Mr. Delingpole's delightful gloat:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100212713/time-to-shoot-the-husky-dave/

    Just a reminder Cameron's father-in-law picks up £1,000 a day from because of Policies Cameron is so keen to promote. What About Nick Clegg's family? How much does his wife earn from her work in the field? Oh, and then there is Tim Yeo, who is Chairman of the Energy and Climate Change Committee, was also last year alone, paid £100,000+ by companies involved in renewable energy.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Hague trailed Blair by 30 points in the leader ratings, Ed has had a lead over Dave for the last year

    well slight difference in the times tim. Hague was up against the UK's premier snake oil salesman when snake oil was all the rage. The size of poll gap doesn't really matter, the poll gap you should worry about is he's not 20 points ahead at this point. If Ed doesn't get in to No 10, does he retire at 44 and go follow his brother in the US ? What purpose would he have ?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    UKIP's share at 15% is now considerably bigger than Labour's lead over the Tories, in a poll that showed no swing to the Liberal Democrats. I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Blank sheet of paper fail....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    So is Ed turning in to William Hague as leader ? He's taken the job at too young an age and has blown his chances.

    I've been thinking for a while that there are very striking similarities between the two. Hague was lucky enough not to become PM when not ready for it.

    Meanwhile, what on earth is François Hollande smoking?

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/04/17/20002-20130417ARTFIG00530-hollande-la-depression-se-prolonge-en-europe-a-cause-de-l-austerite.php

    It's a very novel approach, attacking 'austerity' whilst carrying out France's most rapid fiscal squeeze since WWII. Utterly bizarre, especially given that the French deficit is quite low anyway (although total debt is even worse than ours).
    merely "french multi-tasking" Richard. The ability to say one thing while doing the complete opposite.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Grandiose said:

    I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.

    Why make something up when the tables tell us precisely where they are coming from?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    Those are reasons for commenting on the gender gap. My question was why you only comment on it in relation to polling that shows the Tories substantially behind with women and not so much (or at all that I have noticed) in relation to polling that shows a different story.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Long after challenges to Ed were talked about, the proportion of Labour voters satisfied with Ed (52%) are still much lower than Cameron's (72%). I wonder about the effect on these figures of the Conservatives being reduced to more of a core vote, but I don't think that's enough, since new converts to a party are presumably more likely to be satisfied with their leader.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    @tim

    Don't neglect to mention that the Conservatives are ahead among men
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Llama, perhaps the most bonkers statement, even better than the Independent article about snow becoming a real rarity in the UK, was by the Chief Scientific Officer about 10 years ago. He claimed that by the end of this century Antarctica would be the only habitable landmass.

    It's ridiculous. Energy prices are higher than necessary because of this quasi-religion.

    And even if it's right there's no way the West could decrease carbon emissions enough to balance the rise from China, India, Brazil and so on.

    On an unrelated note, I'm verging dangerously close to being productive today, you'll be pleased to hear.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    As I've also pointed out before Miliband also has a weird lead among the over 75's
    A 23% lead this month - huge
    Can't explain that one.

    Something to do with tha war and people thinking Dave would be useless in the trenches?

    maybe care home workers are filling in their postal votes.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "I'm verging dangerously close to being productive today, you'll be pleased to hear."

    Big Smiley face thing!

    Now, don't spoil it by following discussions on here.


    P.S. You are spot on with your comments on the Climate Change religion.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Neil said:

    Grandiose said:

    I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.

    Why make something up when the tables tell us precisely where they are coming from?
    I've explained before why I don't believe the tables give the most accurate picture of the UKIP effect.

    Also I do believe mine to be a more favourable reading for Labour than the tables would suggest since, as I say, the bigger the differential the more Labour have lost votes elsewhere as their lead over the Tories hasn't changed.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    So Labour are viewed as less ready to form the next government now than they were two years ago. (net 29% disagree vs net 26% in April 2011) Tories were +5% in 2008.

    Explains why Blair has felt the need to give Milliband a bit of a hurry-up.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    @Neil

    I think these figures give an indication of what it is necessary to explain:

    June 2012: CON 31; LAB 40; LIB DEM 10; UKIP 6
    April 2013: CON 29; LAB 38; LIB DEM 10; UKIP 15
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.

    And it's colon, capital D you mean :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited April 2013
    I've updated the thread header with a link to the data tables and incorporated some of the graphics into the thread

    My work here is done now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited April 2013
    Ok one final observation.

    Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.

    If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.

    *Innocent Face*
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Today's YouGov

    Of 2010 LD voters, 20% say Don't Know for their VI.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    UKIP votes comes from
    4% of 2010 Labour voters
    8% of 2010 Lib Dem Voters
    23% of 2010 Tory voters
    The left has to be seriously worried about the damage UKIP will do.

    Where has the other 65% come from?

    Which party had most 'stay at home' voters in 2010?

    In 2010 Labour was down to its core vote - so so few of them shifting to UKIP should come as no surprise.....

    Its your 2010 'stay at home' voters you should be worrying about.....

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.

    And it's colon, capital D you mean :D

    Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Grandiose.

    2010 Tories went to Don't Know after the omnishambles and then moved to UKIP?

    God knows why the Tories are in denial about who is being hit by UKIP, every poll tells the same story.

    "who is being hit by UKIP"

    I don't understand this: if you're right, as you may well be, then there's still a failure for Labour in not catching those people that left the Tories after 2010. UKIP's rise has still been achieved without damaging the current Conservative vote. Certainly it may have an impact on their likelihood to return to the Conservatives, but what that impact is requires careful thought.

    The Conservatives are at most 7% down on their GE performance. 5% is typical from YouGov, 4-5% from ICM.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Llama, I'll consider that for the future.

    Might see how it goes with the comedy. That's going to be shorter, so the cost should be less (if I go that way).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Ok one final observation.

    Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.

    If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.

    *Innocent Face*

    TSE

    for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    23% of 2010 Tories is 9% of the electorate.

    If 9% of the electorate voted Con in 2010 and would now vote UKIP then the Conservatives have gained 4% or so of the electorate from somewhere else, because they're only around 5% down on 2010 according to the majority of pollsters. If they've lost votes to anyone else, then that 4% would rise again.

    [Assuming you mean of people who chose to vote in 2010, rather than the electorate as a whole.]
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.

    And it's colon, capital D you mean :D

    Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.

    sensible idea, are you volunteering ?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    Meanwhile, what on earth is François Hollande smoking?

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/04/17/20002-20130417ARTFIG00530-hollande-la-depression-se-prolonge-en-europe-a-cause-de-l-austerite.php

    It's a very novel approach, attacking 'austerity' whilst carrying out France's most rapid fiscal squeeze since WWII (much faster than anything Osborne is doing). Utterly bizarre, especially given that the French deficit is quite low anyway (although total debt is even worse than ours).

    Perhaps he sees France joining the Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal club, and wants to choose and shape french 'austerity', before his actions are dictated to him.

    Also, if you're already unpopular, you have less to lose by doing unpopular things!
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited April 2013
    "Are you really saying that a non-British nation should have the right to use the British concern"

    An academic question given that an independent Scotland will be every bit as much a British nation as what remains of the UK.
  • Ok one final observation.

    Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.

    If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.

    *Innocent Face*

    TSE

    for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
    I mean this in the nicest possible way, but Clegg is turning into quite the cockroach.

    He's got the resilience to withstand everything.

    One of the threads that ended up on the cutting room floor was entitled

    "Could Clegg and the Lib Dems be the only constant in government this decade"

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    As an aside, I do so love the 'insights' of PB Tories into French socialist thinking.

    Hollande plans to impose a supertax on the ultra-wealthy -

    "The man's a maniac!"

    Hollande doesn't impose a supertax on the ultra-wealthy and cuts the deficit (not the NHS) instead -

    "The man's unhinged!"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Ed Campaigning with Emma Double-Yellow-Line in South Shields - but avoids double yellow lines by taking the Metro:

    http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/hundreds-turn-out-to-greet-ed-miliband-1-5590823
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Grandiose

    It might be that people are missing the significance of the growth in the UKIP polling figures. What happens of instead of it being a bubble as per the SDP in the early eighties it turns out to be like Labour in the early decades of the twentieth century?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Ok one final observation.

    Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.

    If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.

    *Innocent Face*

    TSE

    for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
    I mean this in the nicest possible way, but Clegg is turning into quite the cockroach.

    He's got the resilience to withstand everything.

    One of the threads that ended up on the cutting room floor was entitled

    "Could Clegg and the Lib Dems be the only constant in government this decade"

    personally Mr Eagles I'd be retrieving that one off the cutting floor, since it's not actually that daft a concept. Imo if Cleggy had put voters wishes first ( like uni fees ) instead of his activists ( constitutional dabbling ) he would now be the kingmaker of UK politics.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "What happens of instead of it being a bubble as per the SDP in the early eighties it turns out to be like Labour in the early decades of the twentieth century?"

    Well, in that case it becomes - *puts on Canadian accent* - a terrrr-ible decade for the Conservatives.
  • @Grandiose

    It might be that people are missing the significance of the growth in the UKIP polling figures. What happens of instead of it being a bubble as per the SDP in the early eighties it turns out to be like Labour in the early decades of the twentieth century?

    Now is Nigel Farage, a latter day Keir Hardie or the Ramsay McDonald de nos jours?

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    @JamesKelly

    What you say is as important as what you do.

    Osborne is doing with deficit reduction what the Bank of England does with inflation. The Bank of England's inflation target is almost never met, but there is still every confidence that it will be met some time in the future.

    Hollande can't say the same thing: even if we substitute "growth" for "deficit reduction" the parallel isn't quite the same because the way confidence in growth might take effect (consumer spending, for example) is different to how confidence in deficit reduction might (the interest rate on gilts, for example). I don't think it makes as much sense Hollande's way.
  • Ok one final observation.

    Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.

    If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.

    *Innocent Face*

    TSE

    for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
    I mean this in the nicest possible way, but Clegg is turning into quite the cockroach.

    He's got the resilience to withstand everything.

    One of the threads that ended up on the cutting room floor was entitled

    "Could Clegg and the Lib Dems be the only constant in government this decade"

    personally Mr Eagles I'd be retrieving that one off the cutting floor, since it's not actually that daft a concept. Imo if Cleggy had put voters wishes first ( like uni fees ) instead of his activists ( constitutional dabbling ) he would now be the kingmaker of UK politics.
    I decided to run with the constitutional reform thread instead.

    I'll run it during my next stint as guest editor.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Grandiose said:

    UKIP's share at 15% is now considerably bigger than Labour's lead over the Tories, in a poll that showed no swing to the Liberal Democrats. I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.

    It's always possible that the L/Dems will be known as the "New Squeezed Middle"
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.

    And it's colon, capital D you mean :D

    Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.

    sensible idea, are you volunteering ?
    Mr. Brooke, I should be proud if Mr. D. were to ask me to proof read his new book and (subject to negotiation) I am sure my fees would be modest - perhaps a credit on the frontispiece and, maybe, a meal at a very nice curry house I know in Leeds the next time I am up there. However, given that in my post suggesting an external editor I managed to misplace an apostrophe, I might not be the right chap.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    The only way in which the bizarre behaviour of François Hollande makes any sense is if he is using the word 'l'austérité' to mean something different to what the rest of the world means by it. If he doesn't think tax rises count towards 'l'austérité', and if he thinks you can hike taxes with no adverse effect on growth or employment at all, then I suppose what he is saying kinda makes sense, daft though it is.

    Anyway, he's testing the theory to destruction. I'm glad we're not directly the experimentees. Not yet, anyway, although I fear Ed M may share some of the same delusions.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.

    And it's colon, capital D you mean :D

    Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.

    sensible idea, are you volunteering ?
    Mr. Brooke, I should be proud if Mr. D. were to ask me to proof read his new book and (subject to negotiation) I am sure my fees would be modest - perhaps a credit on the frontispiece and, maybe, a meal at a very nice curry house I know in Leeds the next time I am up there. However, given that in my post suggesting an external editor I managed to misplace an apostrophe, I might not be the right chap.

    well it sort of depends what people want in a proof reader, however since you are one of this blog's pre-eminent pedants it might be hard to find better. I'd offer myself but the concluding text would just be stuffed full of awkward typos like when I pontificated on the baking crisis. Sometimes I'm just all thimbs. ;-)
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    SeanT said:

    The further rise of UKIP.

    As NOT predicted by Mike Smithson and "tim" of pb

    And on it goes.

    Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Alanbrooke

    " ... since you are one of this blog's pre-eminent pedants ...."

    Gosh!

    *Blushes"
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "If he doesn't think tax rises count towards 'l'austérité', and if he thinks you can hike taxes with no adverse effect on growth or employment at all, then I suppose what he is saying kinda makes sense, daft though it is."

    PBToryspeak-to-English translation : If he's a socialist, unlike me, and not a true-blue Tory like me, then I suppose what he's saying makes sense, even though I don't agree with it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    SeanT said:

    The further rise of UKIP.

    As NOT predicted by Mike Smithson and "tim" of pb

    And on it goes.

    Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.

    please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    23% of 2010 Tories is 9% of the electorate.

    23% of 2010 Tories is 6% of the electorate.

    So where has the other 9% of UKIP's 15% come from? None from "Stay at home Labour"?

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013

    "If he doesn't think tax rises count towards 'l'austérité', and if he thinks you can hike taxes with no adverse effect on growth or employment at all, then I suppose what he is saying kinda makes sense, daft though it is."

    PBToryspeak-to-English translation : If he's a socialist, unlike me, and not a true-blue Tory like me, then I suppose what he's saying makes sense, even though I don't agree with it.

    Good lord, you really are both objectionable and an idiot, aren't you?

    I've been trying to understand the puzzle of how Hollande's comments about austerity match the actions he is carrying out, which by any standards are extremely austere (much more so than Osborne's). Do you have an alternative explanation, or is your mindset governed entirely by anti-Conservative prejudice?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    @JamesKelly - James, a favour please, if you are allergic to using the 'quote' button, would you mind putting the @name of whoever's post you are replying to please?

    Replies to nameless posts are difficult to follow.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    SeanT said:

    The further rise of UKIP.

    As NOT predicted by Mike Smithson and "tim" of pb

    And on it goes.

    Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.

    please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
    Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Good lord, you really are both objectionable and an idiot"

    Another one for the "PB Tories covering themselves in glory" scrapbook. Do carry on, Richard - it all helps!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    It looks like the Times will soon run a piece on Labour MEPs shortlisting. Michael Savage is trying to contact on twitter an omitted candidate and the East Midlands shortlisted candidate who was sitting on the selection panel at the same time.

    If someone here is subscribed to the Times, can you tell who wrote that piece 3 years ago?
    https://login.thetimes.co.uk/?gotoUrl=http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "James, a favour please, if you are allergic to using the 'quote' button, would you mind putting the @name of whoever's post you are replying to please?"

    I'm allergic to both, to be honest, although I'll try to remember to put the name, even if I don't include a @ before it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    The further rise of UKIP.

    As NOT predicted by Mike Smithson and "tim" of pb

    And on it goes.

    Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.

    please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
    Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england

    jitters about what ? I am getting tediumitis, it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections, most of which has been a slow process of deflation as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality. Excited activists getting carried away isn't going to help UKIP.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "... as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality ..."

    *Sniggers"
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    AlanBrooke -

    "it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"

    You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.

    But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical.

    If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    *Sniggers"

    Before you snigger too hard, old chap, I'd better just let you know that Alan is lying through his teeth when he says that the SNP used to be a republican party. He's probably aware that he's lying, but who knows.
  • Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical.

    If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.

    You'd be surprised by the chutzpah of some people in divorce proceedings.

    Arsenal footballer Ray Parlour has been ordered to pay his ex-wife Karen a third of his future earnings in a landmark divorce settlement, which has sparked a national debate about marriage.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3890507.stm
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    AlanBrooke -

    "it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"

    You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.

    But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.

    Yeah. yeah jimbo

    Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical."

    Not at all. If you mean "national" in the sense of "a nation that is British", then the UK excluding Scotland is arguably less British than an independent Scotland would be, because it includes non-British territory.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, I remember hearing about the Parlour disgrace at the time. It's absolutely appalling and indefensible that such a judgement was reached.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say."

    You really should tell her to stop singing the 1997 Scottish Tory anthem - if it didn't help Michael Forsyth then it's unlikely to be much use now.

    And "Nein zur Tartan Steuern!" has probably had its day as well.

    But I salute your wife's political and marital fortitude.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    "... as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality ..."

    *Sniggers"

    "... as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality ..."

    *Sniggers"

    I'm just waiting until Sturgeon insists the monarch's head is put on scottish notes. Role on James III or David I
  • AlanBrooke -

    "it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"

    You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.

    But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.

    Yeah. yeah jimbo

    Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say.

    I'm really disappointed in you Mr Brooke.

    You missed a golden opportunity to reference Arthur Donaldson into that.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    The further rise of UKIP.

    As NOT predicted by Mike Smithson and "tim" of pb

    And on it goes.

    Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.

    please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
    Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england

    jitters about what ? I am getting tediumitis, it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections, most of which has been a slow process of deflation as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality. Excited activists getting carried away isn't going to help UKIP.
    Actually, when I read your utterances I'm not quite sure which political party you support. Ukips growing numbers are obviously upsetting you nevertherless. Perhaps I can cheer you up a little. Ukip are now getting so many people applying to be candidates for the locals, that they are having a problem with getting enough cash to support this great effort. Care to offer a donation?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    AlanBrooke -

    "it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"

    You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.

    But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.

    Yeah. yeah jimbo

    Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say.

    I'm really disappointed in you Mr Brooke.

    You missed a golden opportunity to reference Arthur Donaldson into that.
    Mr eagles that would just be greedy.
  • @andrea

    Your link doesn't work, but from my Times search, the article that you are referring to was written by the following people.

    David Brown, Fran Yeoman and Victoria Swalwell
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I'm just waiting until Sturgeon insists the monarch's head is put on scottish notes"

    Alan, you seem to be in pain. Perhaps a trip to a therapist might be in order, so you can construct a comforting new national identity that can flourish without depending on keeping another country captive.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    I take some pride in being one of the few posters here who has never voted for a party that once boasted the future leader of the British Union of Fascists as a prominent MP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    The further rise of UKIP.

    As NOT predicted by Mike Smithson and "tim" of pb

    And on it goes.

    Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.

    please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
    Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england

    jitters about what ? I am getting tediumitis, it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections, most of which has been a slow process of deflation as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality. Excited activists getting carried away isn't going to help UKIP.
    Actually, when I read your utterances I'm not quite sure which political party you support. Ukips growing numbers are obviously upsetting you nevertherless. Perhaps I can cheer you up a little. Ukip are now getting so many people applying to be candidates for the locals, that they are having a problem with getting enough cash to support this great effort. Care to offer a donation?

    I'm what's known as a stay at home blue atm. And since the kippers gave me a Blairite idiot as an MP for 5 years I doubt I'll be making a contribution. However since I tend to be a eurosceptic I quite often throw pebbles in the pond when kipper activists make idealistic claims which won't stand the test of time. Hence why imo bigging things up ultimately works against you; I've yet to see a kipper present a well thought through argument on leaving Europe.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Who thinks the MMR vaccine is unsafe?

    1% of Tories
    3% of Labour
    12% of Lib Dems (hippies)
    28% of UKIPers (fruitcakes)

    Charles should go and flog his single vaccines at the Kipper conference, they love a good conspiracy theory.
    Shame the single vaccines are Eastern European imports.

    You can get measles and rubella vaccines from Sanofi Pasteur & I am very confident with them. Mumps is more challenging - I don't like the trial data on the Czech hamster product (Purevax?) And having been round IIL's facility I wouldn't give one of their vaccines to my dog (if I had one). That's precisely why I made the comment that is a more challenging debate on 2 single vs MMR: mumps is the least bad of all the diseases (and if it was rubella that there was an issue with it would be no contest). But there's no conspiracy: I don't need to make the decision for some time: the question is whether the downsides of not having mumps protection + the upside of the old age of innoculation with single vaccines are better overall that the higher rates of both SSI and system reactions from MMR. Of course single vaccines cost more in terms of time and cash, but that's not a considerationfor me when my daughter's health is concerned.

    Tim: as always this is not as black and white as you like to paint; this is not soime nutty question about autism or other conspiracy theories. This is documented concerns about multivalent vaccines and evidence of (acceptable) levels of reaction. Now, respectful, STFU.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    UKIP votes comes from

    4% of 2010 Labour voters
    8% of 2010 Lib Dem Voters
    23% of 2010 Tory voters

    It makes a difference if those 8% of LD voters were originally ex-Labour voters who'd shifted between 1998 and 2010 - although it might be they are not winnable by Labour anymore in which case it doesn't matter.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.

    Surely they can use any currency they wish, they just can't insist that the BoE or CoE involve them decision making.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    I take some pride in being one of the few posters here who has never voted for a party that once boasted the future leader of the British Union of Fascists as a prominent MP.

    "I'm just waiting until Sturgeon insists the monarch's head is put on scottish notes"

    Alan, you seem to be in pain. Perhaps a trip to a therapist might be in order, so you can construct a comforting new national identity that can flourish without depending on keeping another country captive.

    ah yes the SNP = Scotland crap. James there hasn't been a vote yet, the SNP can bring it forward at any time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical.

    If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.

    Mr Dancer, absolutely they can keep on using the currency if they want to (RoI did so for 20+ years after independence).

    They just can't expect a seat on the MPC or the BofE to act as lender of last resort.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited April 2013
    "James there hasn't been a vote yet"

    You're correct - the Scottish people have never, at any point in the last 306 years, been consulted on whether they actually want to be part of the United Kingdom.

    "the SNP can bring it forward at any time"

    What in God's name do you think they're doing, man? The date has been set, the campaign is under way. The No campaigners will hopefully not be hampered too much by their prior association with the leader of British fascism.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited April 2013

    "James there hasn't been a vote yet"

    You're correct - the Scottish people have never, at any point in the last 306 years, been consulted on whether they actually want to be part of the United Kingdom.

    "the SNP can bring it forward at any time"

    What in God's name do you think they're doing, man? The date has been set, the campaign is under way. The No campaigners will hopefully not be hampered too much by their prior association with the leader of British fascism.

    You mean Arthur Donaldson, that former future leader of British Fascism, I thought he'd be associated with the yes side?
  • I can't believe, what is in effect a voodoo poll, is getting quite such prominent media coverage

    Blow for Yes campaign as 70% say No at Napier

    THE Yes campaign suffered a fresh setback yesterday when it emerged that students at a ­second Scottish university have rejected the idea of independence by a massive majority.

    In a poll of students at Edinburgh’s Napier University, an overwhelming 70.5 per cent said they would vote No in the referendum. Just 29.5 per cent said they would vote Yes.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/labour-to-back-full-income-tax-powers-for-holyrood-1-2900287
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited April 2013
    "Arthur Donaldson you mean?"

    No, Oswald Mosley. I've yet to hear from you about how you feel towards the man who was a prominent Conservative MP. And perhaps we should have a chat about Lord Halifax some time...

    (NOTE : Posted before you edited your comment to make it even more peculiar.)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    @andrea

    Your link doesn't work, but from my Times search, the article that you are referring to was written by the following people.

    David Brown, Fran Yeoman and Victoria Swalwell


    Thanks TSE. The headline was something like "Unions to push Labour to the left".

    As it was a pretty clueless (wanting to be nice) article, I needed a reminder on who wrote it. Just to put other pieces on the subject into context.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I can't believe, what is in effect a voodoo poll, is getting quite such prominent media coverage"

    You should believe it. You're reading it in the Scotsman.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    "James there hasn't been a vote yet"

    You're correct - the Scottish people have never, at any point in the last 306 years, been consulted on whether they actually want to be part of the United Kingdom.

    "the SNP can bring it forward at any time"

    What in God's name do you think they're doing, man? The date has been set, the campaign is under way. The No campaigners will hopefully not be hampered too much by their prior association with the leader of British fascism.

    They're putting off the day as long as they can.
  • "Arthur Donaldson you mean?"

    No, Oswald Mosley. I've yet to hear from you about how you feel towards the man who was a prominent Conservative MP. And perhaps we should have a chat about Lord Halifax some time...

    Like Mr Mosley, Mr Donaldson was interned.

    To be honest, people who were MPs/Leaders of political parties before my father was born, I really don't think is going to swing the independence vote one way or the other.

    And on that note, I'm off to see one of Scotland's finest actors at the cinema, Mr Gerard Butler, in Olympus Has Fallen.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "They're putting off the day as long as they can."

    Hardly. The mandate they secured in 2011 was for a referendum "well into the second half" of this parliamentary term - which started in May 2011 and will finish in May 2016.

    They're actually holding it remarkably early.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Like Mr Mosley, Mr Donaldson was interned."

    And unlike Mr Donaldson, Mr Mosley was interned on some kind of rational basis - ie. he was, actually, a fascist, rather than a threat to the British state because he supported democratic self-determination for the Scottish nation.
  • "Like Mr Mosley, Mr Donaldson was interned."

    And unlike Mr Donaldson, Mr Mosley was interned on some kind of rational basis - ie. he was, actually, a fascist, rather than a threat to the British state because he supported democratic self-determination for the Scottish nation.

    The report I'm reading says

    "Donaldson, who had been thrown out of the SNP in 1940 because of his extreme nationalist views"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    "Arthur Donaldson you mean?"

    No, Oswald Mosley. I've yet to hear from you about how you feel towards the man who was a prominent Conservative MP. And perhaps we should have a chat about Lord Halifax some time...

    (NOTE : Posted before you edited your comment to make it even more peculiar.)

    In what sense was Oswald Mosley a 'prominent Conservative MP'? He was elected as a Conservative MP once. Going on to be an independent MP, and a Labour MP.
This discussion has been closed.