politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori Political Monitor for April
Mr Miliband has the highest net satisfaction rating of the three main party leaders, on minus 16 compared with Mr Cameron’s minus 28 and Mr Clegg’s dire minus 44. Only Mr Farage has a positive net rating, at 8.
Assets and liabilities can (and should) be divided. But the question of currency is an ongoing concern. Are you really saying that a non-British nation should have the right to use the British concern, have the Bank of England as lender of last resort and (presumably) have a say over interest rates whilst at the same time having total independence over fiscal policy?
That's Sturgeon's position, and it's distinctly fishy.
It's deranged. An agreement could be reached over a common currency but it would necessarily involve some degree of fiscal limits for Scotland. Or, Scotland could have its own currency. But you can't have independence over fiscal policy whilst claiming the currency of a foreign country. It's mad. Why not choose the US dollar, or the Vietnamese dong?
F1: practice is at a more civilised hour, so I plan on offering a qualifying tip this time round. This means the pre-qualifying piece should be on Saturday morning, rather than tomorrow.
I would pay double the license fee if they would just stop broadcasting those dreadful weekday 6.30 pm "comedies".
When I was young and rebellious all comedy on the BBC was stuff my parents liked. Now that I'm older it's all left-wing student "humour" (note: it's not humorous).
So is Ed turning in to William Hague as leader ? He's taken the job at too young an age and has blown his chances.
I've been thinking for a while that there are very striking similarities between the two. Hague was lucky enough not to become PM when not ready for it.
Meanwhile, what on earth is François Hollande smoking?
It's a very novel approach, attacking 'austerity' whilst carrying out France's most rapid fiscal squeeze since WWII (much faster than anything Osborne is doing). Utterly bizarre, especially given that the French deficit is quite low anyway (although total debt is even worse than ours).
The count of the first ballot to elect Italian President of Republic just finished. Marini failed to get the 2/3 required. He needed 672 votes. He got just over 500. It was a secret ballot, but it's obvious (also given what it has been said last night) that PD is hugely divided and many didn't vote Marini this morning.
Around 200 MPs overall didn't vote as their parties indicated.
Just a reminder Cameron's father-in-law picks up £1,000 a day from because of Policies Cameron is so keen to promote. What About Nick Clegg's family? How much does his wife earn from her work in the field? Oh, and then there is Tim Yeo, who is Chairman of the Energy and Climate Change Committee, was also last year alone, paid £100,000+ by companies involved in renewable energy.
Hague trailed Blair by 30 points in the leader ratings, Ed has had a lead over Dave for the last year
well slight difference in the times tim. Hague was up against the UK's premier snake oil salesman when snake oil was all the rage. The size of poll gap doesn't really matter, the poll gap you should worry about is he's not 20 points ahead at this point. If Ed doesn't get in to No 10, does he retire at 44 and go follow his brother in the US ? What purpose would he have ?
UKIP's share at 15% is now considerably bigger than Labour's lead over the Tories, in a poll that showed no swing to the Liberal Democrats. I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.
So is Ed turning in to William Hague as leader ? He's taken the job at too young an age and has blown his chances.
I've been thinking for a while that there are very striking similarities between the two. Hague was lucky enough not to become PM when not ready for it.
Meanwhile, what on earth is François Hollande smoking?
It's a very novel approach, attacking 'austerity' whilst carrying out France's most rapid fiscal squeeze since WWII. Utterly bizarre, especially given that the French deficit is quite low anyway (although total debt is even worse than ours).
merely "french multi-tasking" Richard. The ability to say one thing while doing the complete opposite.
I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.
Why make something up when the tables tell us precisely where they are coming from?
Those are reasons for commenting on the gender gap. My question was why you only comment on it in relation to polling that shows the Tories substantially behind with women and not so much (or at all that I have noticed) in relation to polling that shows a different story.
Long after challenges to Ed were talked about, the proportion of Labour voters satisfied with Ed (52%) are still much lower than Cameron's (72%). I wonder about the effect on these figures of the Conservatives being reduced to more of a core vote, but I don't think that's enough, since new converts to a party are presumably more likely to be satisfied with their leader.
Mr. Llama, perhaps the most bonkers statement, even better than the Independent article about snow becoming a real rarity in the UK, was by the Chief Scientific Officer about 10 years ago. He claimed that by the end of this century Antarctica would be the only habitable landmass.
It's ridiculous. Energy prices are higher than necessary because of this quasi-religion.
And even if it's right there's no way the West could decrease carbon emissions enough to balance the rise from China, India, Brazil and so on.
On an unrelated note, I'm verging dangerously close to being productive today, you'll be pleased to hear.
I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.
Why make something up when the tables tell us precisely where they are coming from?
I've explained before why I don't believe the tables give the most accurate picture of the UKIP effect.
Also I do believe mine to be a more favourable reading for Labour than the tables would suggest since, as I say, the bigger the differential the more Labour have lost votes elsewhere as their lead over the Tories hasn't changed.
So Labour are viewed as less ready to form the next government now than they were two years ago. (net 29% disagree vs net 26% in April 2011) Tories were +5% in 2008.
Explains why Blair has felt the need to give Milliband a bit of a hurry-up.
UKIP votes comes from 4% of 2010 Labour voters 8% of 2010 Lib Dem Voters 23% of 2010 Tory voters The left has to be seriously worried about the damage UKIP will do.
Where has the other 65% come from?
Which party had most 'stay at home' voters in 2010?
In 2010 Labour was down to its core vote - so so few of them shifting to UKIP should come as no surprise.....
Its your 2010 'stay at home' voters you should be worrying about.....
Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.
And it's colon, capital D you mean
Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.
2010 Tories went to Don't Know after the omnishambles and then moved to UKIP?
God knows why the Tories are in denial about who is being hit by UKIP, every poll tells the same story.
"who is being hit by UKIP"
I don't understand this: if you're right, as you may well be, then there's still a failure for Labour in not catching those people that left the Tories after 2010. UKIP's rise has still been achieved without damaging the current Conservative vote. Certainly it may have an impact on their likelihood to return to the Conservatives, but what that impact is requires careful thought.
The Conservatives are at most 7% down on their GE performance. 5% is typical from YouGov, 4-5% from ICM.
Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.
If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.
*Innocent Face*
TSE
for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
If 9% of the electorate voted Con in 2010 and would now vote UKIP then the Conservatives have gained 4% or so of the electorate from somewhere else, because they're only around 5% down on 2010 according to the majority of pollsters. If they've lost votes to anyone else, then that 4% would rise again.
[Assuming you mean of people who chose to vote in 2010, rather than the electorate as a whole.]
Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.
And it's colon, capital D you mean
Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.
It's a very novel approach, attacking 'austerity' whilst carrying out France's most rapid fiscal squeeze since WWII (much faster than anything Osborne is doing). Utterly bizarre, especially given that the French deficit is quite low anyway (although total debt is even worse than ours).
Perhaps he sees France joining the Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal club, and wants to choose and shape french 'austerity', before his actions are dictated to him.
Also, if you're already unpopular, you have less to lose by doing unpopular things!
Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.
If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.
*Innocent Face*
TSE
for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
I mean this in the nicest possible way, but Clegg is turning into quite the cockroach.
He's got the resilience to withstand everything.
One of the threads that ended up on the cutting room floor was entitled
"Could Clegg and the Lib Dems be the only constant in government this decade"
It might be that people are missing the significance of the growth in the UKIP polling figures. What happens of instead of it being a bubble as per the SDP in the early eighties it turns out to be like Labour in the early decades of the twentieth century?
Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.
If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.
*Innocent Face*
TSE
for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
I mean this in the nicest possible way, but Clegg is turning into quite the cockroach.
He's got the resilience to withstand everything.
One of the threads that ended up on the cutting room floor was entitled
"Could Clegg and the Lib Dems be the only constant in government this decade"
personally Mr Eagles I'd be retrieving that one off the cutting floor, since it's not actually that daft a concept. Imo if Cleggy had put voters wishes first ( like uni fees ) instead of his activists ( constitutional dabbling ) he would now be the kingmaker of UK politics.
"What happens of instead of it being a bubble as per the SDP in the early eighties it turns out to be like Labour in the early decades of the twentieth century?"
Well, in that case it becomes - *puts on Canadian accent* - a terrrr-ible decade for the Conservatives.
It might be that people are missing the significance of the growth in the UKIP polling figures. What happens of instead of it being a bubble as per the SDP in the early eighties it turns out to be like Labour in the early decades of the twentieth century?
Now is Nigel Farage, a latter day Keir Hardie or the Ramsay McDonald de nos jours?
Osborne is doing with deficit reduction what the Bank of England does with inflation. The Bank of England's inflation target is almost never met, but there is still every confidence that it will be met some time in the future.
Hollande can't say the same thing: even if we substitute "growth" for "deficit reduction" the parallel isn't quite the same because the way confidence in growth might take effect (consumer spending, for example) is different to how confidence in deficit reduction might (the interest rate on gilts, for example). I don't think it makes as much sense Hollande's way.
Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.
If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.
*Innocent Face*
TSE
for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
I mean this in the nicest possible way, but Clegg is turning into quite the cockroach.
He's got the resilience to withstand everything.
One of the threads that ended up on the cutting room floor was entitled
"Could Clegg and the Lib Dems be the only constant in government this decade"
personally Mr Eagles I'd be retrieving that one off the cutting floor, since it's not actually that daft a concept. Imo if Cleggy had put voters wishes first ( like uni fees ) instead of his activists ( constitutional dabbling ) he would now be the kingmaker of UK politics.
I decided to run with the constitutional reform thread instead.
UKIP's share at 15% is now considerably bigger than Labour's lead over the Tories, in a poll that showed no swing to the Liberal Democrats. I think the occam's razor here is that the proportion UKIP voters taken from Lab is only slightly different to the Tories'. There are other possibilities, but I consider this more likely.
It's always possible that the L/Dems will be known as the "New Squeezed Middle"
Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.
And it's colon, capital D you mean
Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.
sensible idea, are you volunteering ?
Mr. Brooke, I should be proud if Mr. D. were to ask me to proof read his new book and (subject to negotiation) I am sure my fees would be modest - perhaps a credit on the frontispiece and, maybe, a meal at a very nice curry house I know in Leeds the next time I am up there. However, given that in my post suggesting an external editor I managed to misplace an apostrophe, I might not be the right chap.
The only way in which the bizarre behaviour of François Hollande makes any sense is if he is using the word 'l'austérité' to mean something different to what the rest of the world means by it. If he doesn't think tax rises count towards 'l'austérité', and if he thinks you can hike taxes with no adverse effect on growth or employment at all, then I suppose what he is saying kinda makes sense, daft though it is.
Anyway, he's testing the theory to destruction. I'm glad we're not directly the experimentees. Not yet, anyway, although I fear Ed M may share some of the same delusions.
Mr. Llama, it's not an issue (distraction) because the last check is so monotonous I do a page or two, then check pb.com, then do a page or two.
And it's colon, capital D you mean
Mr. D. I have mentioned this before. Get yourself an editor. Proof reading one's own stuff is tedious, inefficient and, most importantly, ineffective (beyond the banal we can't see our own mistakes). Getting an editor doesn't need to be expensive or even, in this internet world, cost you anything, nor would it cause you to lose control of content, but it would save you day's of effort that could be better and more productively used.
sensible idea, are you volunteering ?
Mr. Brooke, I should be proud if Mr. D. were to ask me to proof read his new book and (subject to negotiation) I am sure my fees would be modest - perhaps a credit on the frontispiece and, maybe, a meal at a very nice curry house I know in Leeds the next time I am up there. However, given that in my post suggesting an external editor I managed to misplace an apostrophe, I might not be the right chap.
well it sort of depends what people want in a proof reader, however since you are one of this blog's pre-eminent pedants it might be hard to find better. I'd offer myself but the concluding text would just be stuffed full of awkward typos like when I pontificated on the baking crisis. Sometimes I'm just all thimbs. ;-)
Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.
"If he doesn't think tax rises count towards 'l'austérité', and if he thinks you can hike taxes with no adverse effect on growth or employment at all, then I suppose what he is saying kinda makes sense, daft though it is."
PBToryspeak-to-English translation : If he's a socialist, unlike me, and not a true-blue Tory like me, then I suppose what he's saying makes sense, even though I don't agree with it.
Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.
please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
"If he doesn't think tax rises count towards 'l'austérité', and if he thinks you can hike taxes with no adverse effect on growth or employment at all, then I suppose what he is saying kinda makes sense, daft though it is."
PBToryspeak-to-English translation : If he's a socialist, unlike me, and not a true-blue Tory like me, then I suppose what he's saying makes sense, even though I don't agree with it.
Good lord, you really are both objectionable and an idiot, aren't you?
I've been trying to understand the puzzle of how Hollande's comments about austerity match the actions he is carrying out, which by any standards are extremely austere (much more so than Osborne's). Do you have an alternative explanation, or is your mindset governed entirely by anti-Conservative prejudice?
@JamesKelly - James, a favour please, if you are allergic to using the 'quote' button, would you mind putting the @name of whoever's post you are replying to please?
Replies to nameless posts are difficult to follow.
Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.
please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england
It looks like the Times will soon run a piece on Labour MEPs shortlisting. Michael Savage is trying to contact on twitter an omitted candidate and the East Midlands shortlisted candidate who was sitting on the selection panel at the same time.
"James, a favour please, if you are allergic to using the 'quote' button, would you mind putting the @name of whoever's post you are replying to please?"
I'm allergic to both, to be honest, although I'll try to remember to put the name, even if I don't include a @ before it.
Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.
please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england
jitters about what ? I am getting tediumitis, it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections, most of which has been a slow process of deflation as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality. Excited activists getting carried away isn't going to help UKIP.
"it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"
You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.
But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.
Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical.
If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.
Before you snigger too hard, old chap, I'd better just let you know that Alan is lying through his teeth when he says that the SNP used to be a republican party. He's probably aware that he's lying, but who knows.
Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical.
If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.
You'd be surprised by the chutzpah of some people in divorce proceedings.
Arsenal footballer Ray Parlour has been ordered to pay his ex-wife Karen a third of his future earnings in a landmark divorce settlement, which has sparked a national debate about marriage.
"it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"
You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.
But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.
Yeah. yeah jimbo
Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say.
"Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical."
Not at all. If you mean "national" in the sense of "a nation that is British", then the UK excluding Scotland is arguably less British than an independent Scotland would be, because it includes non-British territory.
"it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"
You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.
But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.
Yeah. yeah jimbo
Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say.
I'm really disappointed in you Mr Brooke.
You missed a golden opportunity to reference Arthur Donaldson into that.
Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.
please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england
jitters about what ? I am getting tediumitis, it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections, most of which has been a slow process of deflation as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality. Excited activists getting carried away isn't going to help UKIP.
Actually, when I read your utterances I'm not quite sure which political party you support. Ukips growing numbers are obviously upsetting you nevertherless. Perhaps I can cheer you up a little. Ukip are now getting so many people applying to be candidates for the locals, that they are having a problem with getting enough cash to support this great effort. Care to offer a donation?
"it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"
You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.
But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.
Yeah. yeah jimbo
Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say.
I'm really disappointed in you Mr Brooke.
You missed a golden opportunity to reference Arthur Donaldson into that.
"I'm just waiting until Sturgeon insists the monarch's head is put on scottish notes"
Alan, you seem to be in pain. Perhaps a trip to a therapist might be in order, so you can construct a comforting new national identity that can flourish without depending on keeping another country captive.
I take some pride in being one of the few posters here who has never voted for a party that once boasted the future leader of the British Union of Fascists as a prominent MP.
Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.
please don't bore us with with weeks of bigging it all up. A poll's a poll that's all, it's the vote that counts.
Alanbrooke, you are getting the jitters but that's no reason to snap at our nigel4england
jitters about what ? I am getting tediumitis, it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections, most of which has been a slow process of deflation as the euro led neutral republic muted in to the sterling loving, NATO monarchy on the first clash with reality. Excited activists getting carried away isn't going to help UKIP.
Actually, when I read your utterances I'm not quite sure which political party you support. Ukips growing numbers are obviously upsetting you nevertherless. Perhaps I can cheer you up a little. Ukip are now getting so many people applying to be candidates for the locals, that they are having a problem with getting enough cash to support this great effort. Care to offer a donation?
I'm what's known as a stay at home blue atm. And since the kippers gave me a Blairite idiot as an MP for 5 years I doubt I'll be making a contribution. However since I tend to be a eurosceptic I quite often throw pebbles in the pond when kipper activists make idealistic claims which won't stand the test of time. Hence why imo bigging things up ultimately works against you; I've yet to see a kipper present a well thought through argument on leaving Europe.
1% of Tories 3% of Labour 12% of Lib Dems (hippies) 28% of UKIPers (fruitcakes)
Charles should go and flog his single vaccines at the Kipper conference, they love a good conspiracy theory. Shame the single vaccines are Eastern European imports.
You can get measles and rubella vaccines from Sanofi Pasteur & I am very confident with them. Mumps is more challenging - I don't like the trial data on the Czech hamster product (Purevax?) And having been round IIL's facility I wouldn't give one of their vaccines to my dog (if I had one). That's precisely why I made the comment that is a more challenging debate on 2 single vs MMR: mumps is the least bad of all the diseases (and if it was rubella that there was an issue with it would be no contest). But there's no conspiracy: I don't need to make the decision for some time: the question is whether the downsides of not having mumps protection + the upside of the old age of innoculation with single vaccines are better overall that the higher rates of both SSI and system reactions from MMR. Of course single vaccines cost more in terms of time and cash, but that's not a considerationfor me when my daughter's health is concerned.
Tim: as always this is not as black and white as you like to paint; this is not soime nutty question about autism or other conspiracy theories. This is documented concerns about multivalent vaccines and evidence of (acceptable) levels of reaction. Now, respectful, STFU.
4% of 2010 Labour voters 8% of 2010 Lib Dem Voters 23% of 2010 Tory voters
It makes a difference if those 8% of LD voters were originally ex-Labour voters who'd shifted between 1998 and 2010 - although it might be they are not winnable by Labour anymore in which case it doesn't matter.
If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.
Surely they can use any currency they wish, they just can't insist that the BoE or CoE involve them decision making.
I take some pride in being one of the few posters here who has never voted for a party that once boasted the future leader of the British Union of Fascists as a prominent MP.
"I'm just waiting until Sturgeon insists the monarch's head is put on scottish notes"
Alan, you seem to be in pain. Perhaps a trip to a therapist might be in order, so you can construct a comforting new national identity that can flourish without depending on keeping another country captive.
ah yes the SNP = Scotland crap. James there hasn't been a vote yet, the SNP can bring it forward at any time.
Mr. Kelly, you appear to have accidentally conflated the meaning of British from the national (ie UK excluding Scotland), which was what I meant, to the geographical.
If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.
Mr Dancer, absolutely they can keep on using the currency if they want to (RoI did so for 20+ years after independence).
They just can't expect a seat on the MPC or the BofE to act as lender of last resort.
You're correct - the Scottish people have never, at any point in the last 306 years, been consulted on whether they actually want to be part of the United Kingdom.
"the SNP can bring it forward at any time"
What in God's name do you think they're doing, man? The date has been set, the campaign is under way. The No campaigners will hopefully not be hampered too much by their prior association with the leader of British fascism.
You're correct - the Scottish people have never, at any point in the last 306 years, been consulted on whether they actually want to be part of the United Kingdom.
"the SNP can bring it forward at any time"
What in God's name do you think they're doing, man? The date has been set, the campaign is under way. The No campaigners will hopefully not be hampered too much by their prior association with the leader of British fascism.
You mean Arthur Donaldson, that former future leader of British Fascism, I thought he'd be associated with the yes side?
I can't believe, what is in effect a voodoo poll, is getting quite such prominent media coverage
Blow for Yes campaign as 70% say No at Napier
THE Yes campaign suffered a fresh setback yesterday when it emerged that students at a second Scottish university have rejected the idea of independence by a massive majority.
In a poll of students at Edinburgh’s Napier University, an overwhelming 70.5 per cent said they would vote No in the referendum. Just 29.5 per cent said they would vote Yes.
No, Oswald Mosley. I've yet to hear from you about how you feel towards the man who was a prominent Conservative MP. And perhaps we should have a chat about Lord Halifax some time...
(NOTE : Posted before you edited your comment to make it even more peculiar.)
You're correct - the Scottish people have never, at any point in the last 306 years, been consulted on whether they actually want to be part of the United Kingdom.
"the SNP can bring it forward at any time"
What in God's name do you think they're doing, man? The date has been set, the campaign is under way. The No campaigners will hopefully not be hampered too much by their prior association with the leader of British fascism.
No, Oswald Mosley. I've yet to hear from you about how you feel towards the man who was a prominent Conservative MP. And perhaps we should have a chat about Lord Halifax some time...
Like Mr Mosley, Mr Donaldson was interned.
To be honest, people who were MPs/Leaders of political parties before my father was born, I really don't think is going to swing the independence vote one way or the other.
And on that note, I'm off to see one of Scotland's finest actors at the cinema, Mr Gerard Butler, in Olympus Has Fallen.
"They're putting off the day as long as they can."
Hardly. The mandate they secured in 2011 was for a referendum "well into the second half" of this parliamentary term - which started in May 2011 and will finish in May 2016.
And unlike Mr Donaldson, Mr Mosley was interned on some kind of rational basis - ie. he was, actually, a fascist, rather than a threat to the British state because he supported democratic self-determination for the Scottish nation.
And unlike Mr Donaldson, Mr Mosley was interned on some kind of rational basis - ie. he was, actually, a fascist, rather than a threat to the British state because he supported democratic self-determination for the Scottish nation.
The report I'm reading says
"Donaldson, who had been thrown out of the SNP in 1940 because of his extreme nationalist views"
No, Oswald Mosley. I've yet to hear from you about how you feel towards the man who was a prominent Conservative MP. And perhaps we should have a chat about Lord Halifax some time...
(NOTE : Posted before you edited your comment to make it even more peculiar.)
In what sense was Oswald Mosley a 'prominent Conservative MP'? He was elected as a Conservative MP once. Going on to be an independent MP, and a Labour MP.
Comments
Assets and liabilities can (and should) be divided. But the question of currency is an ongoing concern. Are you really saying that a non-British nation should have the right to use the British concern, have the Bank of England as lender of last resort and (presumably) have a say over interest rates whilst at the same time having total independence over fiscal policy?
That's Sturgeon's position, and it's distinctly fishy.
It's deranged. An agreement could be reached over a common currency but it would necessarily involve some degree of fiscal limits for Scotland. Or, Scotland could have its own currency. But you can't have independence over fiscal policy whilst claiming the currency of a foreign country. It's mad. Why not choose the US dollar, or the Vietnamese dong?
A Tory master class in how to annoy your actual and potential supporters.
I would pay double the license fee if they would just stop broadcasting those dreadful weekday 6.30 pm "comedies".
When I was young and rebellious all comedy on the BBC was stuff my parents liked. Now that I'm older it's all left-wing student "humour" (note: it's not humorous).
It's as though they're doing it to spite me.
UKIP PEB viewed 21,333 times on their official channel
LIb Dems PEB viewed 2,086 on theirs
Meanwhile, what on earth is François Hollande smoking?
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/04/17/20002-20130417ARTFIG00530-hollande-la-depression-se-prolonge-en-europe-a-cause-de-l-austerite.php
It's a very novel approach, attacking 'austerity' whilst carrying out France's most rapid fiscal squeeze since WWII (much faster than anything Osborne is doing). Utterly bizarre, especially given that the French deficit is quite low anyway (although total debt is even worse than ours).
Why are gender gaps only worth commenting on when they show the Tories are behind with women?
It was a secret ballot, but it's obvious (also given what it has been said last night) that PD is hugely divided and many didn't vote Marini this morning.
Around 200 MPs overall didn't vote as their parties indicated.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Temperature_CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSS_WUWT_18Apr13.png
For Commentary to put it into context you can read this:
http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/18/part-2-thomas-stocker-interview-luning-ipcc-increasingly-unable-to-maneuver-detached-from-reality/
And for a complete belly laugh you can read Mr. Delingpole's delightful gloat:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100212713/time-to-shoot-the-husky-dave/
Just a reminder Cameron's father-in-law picks up £1,000 a day from because of Policies Cameron is so keen to promote. What About Nick Clegg's family? How much does his wife earn from her work in the field? Oh, and then there is Tim Yeo, who is Chairman of the Energy and Climate Change Committee, was also last year alone, paid £100,000+ by companies involved in renewable energy.
Those are reasons for commenting on the gender gap. My question was why you only comment on it in relation to polling that shows the Tories substantially behind with women and not so much (or at all that I have noticed) in relation to polling that shows a different story.
Don't neglect to mention that the Conservatives are ahead among men
It's ridiculous. Energy prices are higher than necessary because of this quasi-religion.
And even if it's right there's no way the West could decrease carbon emissions enough to balance the rise from China, India, Brazil and so on.
On an unrelated note, I'm verging dangerously close to being productive today, you'll be pleased to hear.
Big Smiley face thing!
Now, don't spoil it by following discussions on here.
P.S. You are spot on with your comments on the Climate Change religion.
Also I do believe mine to be a more favourable reading for Labour than the tables would suggest since, as I say, the bigger the differential the more Labour have lost votes elsewhere as their lead over the Tories hasn't changed.
Explains why Blair has felt the need to give Milliband a bit of a hurry-up.
I think these figures give an indication of what it is necessary to explain:
June 2012: CON 31; LAB 40; LIB DEM 10; UKIP 6
April 2013: CON 29; LAB 38; LIB DEM 10; UKIP 15
And it's colon, capital D you mean
My work here is done now.
Clegg is clearly more unpopular than the government.
If the Tories ditch the Lib Dems then they get rid of the voter repellent that is Clegg and the Lib Dems, that's one way to victory.
*Innocent Face*
Of 2010 LD voters, 20% say Don't Know for their VI.
Which party had most 'stay at home' voters in 2010?
In 2010 Labour was down to its core vote - so so few of them shifting to UKIP should come as no surprise.....
Its your 2010 'stay at home' voters you should be worrying about.....
I don't understand this: if you're right, as you may well be, then there's still a failure for Labour in not catching those people that left the Tories after 2010. UKIP's rise has still been achieved without damaging the current Conservative vote. Certainly it may have an impact on their likelihood to return to the Conservatives, but what that impact is requires careful thought.
The Conservatives are at most 7% down on their GE performance. 5% is typical from YouGov, 4-5% from ICM.
Might see how it goes with the comedy. That's going to be shorter, so the cost should be less (if I go that way).
for as much as people claim to hate Cleggy, I can't help but notice that the chap is still there and will be until at least 2015. And for all the abuse thrown at him that the man is an idiot he still seems to be exerting a fair degree of influence of the national debate and in all likelihood could once again hold the balance of power. Those who have written him off like Mr Huhne or Mr Fox have a tendancy to get written off first, I can't help but think Young EdM may yet come to regret not agreeing with Nick.
If 9% of the electorate voted Con in 2010 and would now vote UKIP then the Conservatives have gained 4% or so of the electorate from somewhere else, because they're only around 5% down on 2010 according to the majority of pollsters. If they've lost votes to anyone else, then that 4% would rise again.
[Assuming you mean of people who chose to vote in 2010, rather than the electorate as a whole.]
Also, if you're already unpopular, you have less to lose by doing unpopular things!
An academic question given that an independent Scotland will be every bit as much a British nation as what remains of the UK.
He's got the resilience to withstand everything.
One of the threads that ended up on the cutting room floor was entitled
"Could Clegg and the Lib Dems be the only constant in government this decade"
Hollande plans to impose a supertax on the ultra-wealthy -
"The man's a maniac!"
Hollande doesn't impose a supertax on the ultra-wealthy and cuts the deficit (not the NHS) instead -
"The man's unhinged!"
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/hundreds-turn-out-to-greet-ed-miliband-1-5590823
It might be that people are missing the significance of the growth in the UKIP polling figures. What happens of instead of it being a bubble as per the SDP in the early eighties it turns out to be like Labour in the early decades of the twentieth century?
Well, in that case it becomes - *puts on Canadian accent* - a terrrr-ible decade for the Conservatives.
What you say is as important as what you do.
Osborne is doing with deficit reduction what the Bank of England does with inflation. The Bank of England's inflation target is almost never met, but there is still every confidence that it will be met some time in the future.
Hollande can't say the same thing: even if we substitute "growth" for "deficit reduction" the parallel isn't quite the same because the way confidence in growth might take effect (consumer spending, for example) is different to how confidence in deficit reduction might (the interest rate on gilts, for example). I don't think it makes as much sense Hollande's way.
I'll run it during my next stint as guest editor.
Anyway, he's testing the theory to destruction. I'm glad we're not directly the experimentees. Not yet, anyway, although I fear Ed M may share some of the same delusions.
Won't be long before UKIP are polling 20% plus, with the immigration next year set to be all over the media prior to May 2015, believe me UKIP are not conveniently going to go away before the next election.
" ... since you are one of this blog's pre-eminent pedants ...."
Gosh!
*Blushes"
PBToryspeak-to-English translation : If he's a socialist, unlike me, and not a true-blue Tory like me, then I suppose what he's saying makes sense, even though I don't agree with it.
So where has the other 9% of UKIP's 15% come from? None from "Stay at home Labour"?
I've been trying to understand the puzzle of how Hollande's comments about austerity match the actions he is carrying out, which by any standards are extremely austere (much more so than Osborne's). Do you have an alternative explanation, or is your mindset governed entirely by anti-Conservative prejudice?
Replies to nameless posts are difficult to follow.
Another one for the "PB Tories covering themselves in glory" scrapbook. Do carry on, Richard - it all helps!
If someone here is subscribed to the Times, can you tell who wrote that piece 3 years ago?
https://login.thetimes.co.uk/?gotoUrl=http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/
I'm allergic to both, to be honest, although I'll try to remember to put the name, even if I don't include a @ before it.
*Sniggers"
"it was the same when the Nats bigged up all they were going to do post 2011 elections"
You'd better hope that isn't a precedent, Alan, because as you know the SNP secured a historic triumph in the May 2012 local elections. Their first ever win in the popular vote, and only their second win in terms of seats. A bigger increase in their share of the vote than any other party, and a bigger increase in number of seats than any other party.
But I'm sure you haven't conveniently forgotten about that.
If you leave a country you can't keep the currency unless the country you left agrees. It's like divorcing someone and then demanding to keep a joint account.
Before you snigger too hard, old chap, I'd better just let you know that Alan is lying through his teeth when he says that the SNP used to be a republican party. He's probably aware that he's lying, but who knows.
Arsenal footballer Ray Parlour has been ordered to pay his ex-wife Karen a third of his future earnings in a landmark divorce settlement, which has sparked a national debate about marriage.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3890507.stm
Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Sterling as wee wifie might say.
Not at all. If you mean "national" in the sense of "a nation that is British", then the UK excluding Scotland is arguably less British than an independent Scotland would be, because it includes non-British territory.
You really should tell her to stop singing the 1997 Scottish Tory anthem - if it didn't help Michael Forsyth then it's unlikely to be much use now.
And "Nein zur Tartan Steuern!" has probably had its day as well.
But I salute your wife's political and marital fortitude.
You missed a golden opportunity to reference Arthur Donaldson into that.
Your link doesn't work, but from my Times search, the article that you are referring to was written by the following people.
David Brown, Fran Yeoman and Victoria Swalwell
Alan, you seem to be in pain. Perhaps a trip to a therapist might be in order, so you can construct a comforting new national identity that can flourish without depending on keeping another country captive.
Tim: as always this is not as black and white as you like to paint; this is not soime nutty question about autism or other conspiracy theories. This is documented concerns about multivalent vaccines and evidence of (acceptable) levels of reaction. Now, respectful, STFU.
They just can't expect a seat on the MPC or the BofE to act as lender of last resort.
You're correct - the Scottish people have never, at any point in the last 306 years, been consulted on whether they actually want to be part of the United Kingdom.
"the SNP can bring it forward at any time"
What in God's name do you think they're doing, man? The date has been set, the campaign is under way. The No campaigners will hopefully not be hampered too much by their prior association with the leader of British fascism.
Blow for Yes campaign as 70% say No at Napier
THE Yes campaign suffered a fresh setback yesterday when it emerged that students at a second Scottish university have rejected the idea of independence by a massive majority.
In a poll of students at Edinburgh’s Napier University, an overwhelming 70.5 per cent said they would vote No in the referendum. Just 29.5 per cent said they would vote Yes.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/labour-to-back-full-income-tax-powers-for-holyrood-1-2900287
No, Oswald Mosley. I've yet to hear from you about how you feel towards the man who was a prominent Conservative MP. And perhaps we should have a chat about Lord Halifax some time...
(NOTE : Posted before you edited your comment to make it even more peculiar.)
Thanks TSE. The headline was something like "Unions to push Labour to the left".
As it was a pretty clueless (wanting to be nice) article, I needed a reminder on who wrote it. Just to put other pieces on the subject into context.
You should believe it. You're reading it in the Scotsman.
To be honest, people who were MPs/Leaders of political parties before my father was born, I really don't think is going to swing the independence vote one way or the other.
And on that note, I'm off to see one of Scotland's finest actors at the cinema, Mr Gerard Butler, in Olympus Has Fallen.
Hardly. The mandate they secured in 2011 was for a referendum "well into the second half" of this parliamentary term - which started in May 2011 and will finish in May 2016.
They're actually holding it remarkably early.
And unlike Mr Donaldson, Mr Mosley was interned on some kind of rational basis - ie. he was, actually, a fascist, rather than a threat to the British state because he supported democratic self-determination for the Scottish nation.
"Donaldson, who had been thrown out of the SNP in 1940 because of his extreme nationalist views"