politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the third Thursday of May exactly a year ago Mrs May launch

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

How long until it all becomes ancient history? Presumably you have no problem being in a political union with a country that dropped bombs on us and killed thousands of our people.

And what about Dresden? Are we guiltless?

That's not the point I'm making. The point I'm making is that people in this country were supposed to just accept it.

Personally I have a higher opinion of the Irish than most remainers on here. I don't think they'll start killing each other.

anothernick said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or accept there will be some sort of border as far as technology allows.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

Probably because the technology to make it work does not exist.

On land borders.
But ports ?

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

How long until it all becomes ancient history? Presumably you have no problem being in a political union with a country that dropped bombs on us and killed thousands of our people.

And what about Dresden? Are we guiltless?

Less guilty than the Irish, who remained neutral against the regime that wanted to commit more evil than any other in world history.

Elliot said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or accept there will be some sort of border as far as technology allows.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

And you are in for a big letdown.

You think I will be let down if there is any hint of a return to a troubled island of Ireland? What kind of idiot are you?

I am saying two things: first, that it would be a huge mistake to fuck with the border; and secondly that precisely because it would be a huge mistake, no UK government will indeed fuck with it.

My personal feelings have nothing whatsoever to do with it. Meanwhile, your desire for Brexit at any price, would happily see a return of one of the most troubling elements in our society in recent, and not so recent history.

The people of Northern Ireland have moved on from the toxic attitudes of paramilitarism. I don't see why the rest of us should be held to ransom by a handful of religious bigots that get upset at flags.

For you also.

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or accept there will be some sort of border as far as technology allows.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

It depends what you mean by "work". MaxFac doesn't remove the infrastructure. It just means some people get through infrastructure quicker. It is actually more useful at Dover (and at any potential Irish Sea customs posts) than on the Irish land border...

Precisely.
I was suggesting >nothing< at the border.

I misunderstood. That's the NI backstop. The DUP wouldn't be happy if it really happened.

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Personally I have a higher opinion of the Irish than most remainers on here. I don't think they'll start killing each other.

People living on the border don't want any new barriers, however insignificant.

If infrastructure is vandalised will it be replaced? How many times? Will it be protected by other measures? How far would you go to enforce the new legal status quo?

Given that the island of Ireland is, err, an island, I wouldn't worry about smuggling. So I wouldn't put up a border on our side. What the EU make RoI do, however, well that's up to them.

TOPPING said:

Elliot said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or accept there will be some sort of border as far as technology allows.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

And you are in for a big letdown.

history.

The people of Northern Ireland have moved on from the toxic attitudes of paramilitarism. I don't see why the rest of us should be held to ransom by a handful of religious bigots that get upset at flags.

For you also.

"The overwhelming majority of nationalists support Sinn Féin’s peace strategy and vote in increasing numbers for that party despite constant accusations from ONH and other republican dissidents that the movement Gerry Adams and the late Martin McGuinness helped to shape had “sold out” on traditional republican principles."

Elliot said:

williamglenn said:

Elliot said:

I don't see why the rest of us should be held to ransom by a handful of religious bigots that get upset at flags.

Indeed.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/856242373483008001

I've made my distaste for Farage clear on many occasions. He doesn't start riots over it thankfully.

When he said he would "don khaki and pick up his rifle" if he didn't get his Brexit, he was just having a lark?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Elliot said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

If we do get a deal with the EU on brexit in name only,which of the brexit ministers Davis,Fox or Johnson will disown it first ?

None of them.

If Gove didn’t resign after betraying the fishermen then you’ll be in for a long wait.

A delay of a windfall by three years is in no way a "betrayal" compared to no windfall at all. You are deliberately pushing a narrative you know to be untrue.

Leading Tory Leave campaigner Michael Gove slammed by his own MPs over Brexit fishing rights 'betrayal'

Scottish fishing leaders described the deal as “far short” of acceptable, while the Fishing for Leave campaign group accused David Davis of an “abject, disgusting betrayal” and demanded both he and Mrs May resign.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/03/19/ruth-davidson-warns-pm-protect-fishing-final-brexit-deal-transition/

Faragist group called it a betrayal and everyone else said it was disappointing and wanted guarantees on the final deal.

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Personally I have a higher opinion of the Irish than most remainers on here. I don't think they'll start killing each other.

People living on the border don't want any new barriers, however insignificant.

If infrastructure is vandalised will it be replaced? How many times? Will it be protected by other measures? How far would you go to enforce the new legal status quo?

Given that the island of Ireland is, err, an island, I wouldn't worry about smuggling. So I wouldn't put up a border on our side. What the EU make RoI do, however, well that's up to them.

De facto what you'd be doing is saying that 'their side' starts at the coast, and it wouldn't be long before that became the de jure position too.

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

If we do get a deal with the EU on brexit in name only,which of the brexit ministers Davis,Fox or Johnson will disown it first ?

None of them.

If Gove didn’t resign after betraying the fishermen then you’ll be in for a long wait.

You better hope the word betrayal doesn't start appearing next to the Tory party name,nice to know you think it is.

It is economical and political gravity kicking in.

The Tories will be able to frame it as the sound economic choice, call it the long term economic plan if you like.

Boris has set the ground with talk of an amnesty for illegal immigrants.

williamglenn said:

Elliot said:

williamglenn said:

Elliot said:

I don't see why the rest of us should be held to ransom by a handful of religious bigots that get upset at flags.

Indeed.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/856242373483008001

I've made my distaste for Farage clear on many occasions. He doesn't start riots over it thankfully.

When he said he would "don khaki and pick up his rifle" if he didn't get his Brexit, he was just having a lark?

You think he is going to actually do that?

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Personally I have a higher opinion of the Irish than most remainers on here. I don't think they'll start killing each other.

People living on the border don't want any new barriers, however insignificant.

If infrastructure is vandalised will it be replaced? How many times? Will it be protected by other measures? How far would you go to enforce the new legal status quo?

Given that the island of Ireland is, err, an island, I wouldn't worry about smuggling. So I wouldn't put up a border on our side. What the EU make RoI do, however, well that's up to them.

And so you decide, in full control of your control, not to have any borders. The EU has two options. Put up a border between EU (Eire) and NI - in which case listen to Fianna Fail and, for that matter, Theresa May. Or not put up any border, be super happy with regulatory alignment (because that will be the only circumstances under which it is considered) and wait to hear from the DUP on what would be in effect a de facto united Ireland with a border in the Irish Sea between that entity and the UK.

But it's all academic. The more anyone sane thinks about it, the more we are going to have to stay in the Customs Union.

Now I am first to believe that some kind of fudge will emerge (a known unknown) but I am damned if I can work out what it will be.

Elliot said:

williamglenn said:

Elliot said:

williamglenn said:

Elliot said:

I don't see why the rest of us should be held to ransom by a handful of religious bigots that get upset at flags.

Indeed.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/856242373483008001

I've made my distaste for Farage clear on many occasions. He doesn't start riots over it thankfully.

When he said he would "don khaki and pick up his rifle" if he didn't get his Brexit, he was just having a lark?

You think he is going to actually do that?

No, but some people who follow him might.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-security-farright/police-arrest-four-including-soldiers-over-suspected-far-right-terrorism-idUKKCN1BG1BN

Elliot said:

TOPPING said:

Elliot said:

TOPPING said:

Elliot said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

And you are in for a big letdown.

history.

The people of Northern Ireland have moved on from the toxic attitudes of paramilitarism. I don't see why the rest of us should be held to ransom by a handful of religious bigots that get upset at flags.

For you also.

"The overwhelming majority of nationalists support Sinn Féin’s peace strategy and vote in increasing numbers for that party despite constant accusations from ONH and other republican dissidents that the movement Gerry Adams and the late Martin McGuinness helped to shape had “sold out” on traditional republican principles."

Yes. Exactly. Until we get a border between the 26 and the six counties. What a recruiting sergeant.

A border consisting of some security cameras and some lorry parks. There is worse in my local petrol station. Now perhaps a few idiots behave stupidly over it but the vast majority of people have moved on. Perhaps you think we should be held to ransom by those few idiots, but I don't.

Ireland more or less has always been at the mercy of "a few idiots". A lot easier to dismiss them on here than in the real world, as everyone from Lloyd George onwards (including Michael Collins) has found out.

sarissa said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

How long until it all becomes ancient history? Presumably you have no problem being in a political union with a country that dropped bombs on us and killed thousands of our people.

And what about Dresden? Are we guiltless?

Basil Fawlty: Is there something wrong?
German Guest: Will you stop talking about the war?
Basil Fawlty: Me? You started it.
German Guest: We did not!
Basil Fawlty: Yes, you did. You invaded Poland!

On a related matter, is anyone going to tonight's Dambusters 75th anniversary gala screening at the Albert Hall or (like me) a live screening at this local cinema? Looking forward to the spanking new 4k digital print.

I bet they leave out the dog.

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

How long until it all becomes ancient history? Presumably you have no problem being in a political union with a country that dropped bombs on us and killed thousands of our people.

And what about Dresden? Are we guiltless?

Whilst I agree that we should not dwell on the past nor use it to justify current actions, this sort of moral equivalency is pretty sick.

Recidivist said:

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

the EU accounts for just 14% of global GDP, extracting further economic gain out of that 14% to the exclusion of the rest has never made any sense. Staying in the customs union guarantees that outcome.

No it doesn't. This is why all of your analysis is completely and utterly flawed.

The EU is signing trade deals with the rest of the World, and as members we get our share of that.

Being a member gives us more clout in the negotiations, and always has.

Exactly.

Exactly wrong.

Brexitism rests on several fallacies, which are recited ad nauseum on here.

1. The fallacy of opportunity.
This is the idea that because the EU is “only” c48% of our trade - and in relative decline, we should leave to take advantage of other opportunities. It ignores the fact that EU FTAs comprise a further c20% of our trade, not to mention the clear counterexample of Germany’s export success.

2. The fallacy of independence.
This is the idea that we too can be Norway - who is tightly integrated with the EU via EFTA, or Switzerland - ditto via bespoke and contentious FTAs - while pursuing a “WTO” Brexit. In reality, the U.K. must and will have a close relationship with the EU.

3. The fallacy of individuality.
This is the idea that we are better negotiating trade deals alone for ourselves than diluting our demands with 27 other countries. It ignores the clear advantages of negotiating clout that accrue as part of a global trading superpower.

4. The fallacy of unemployment.
This is the claim that the EU is detrimental to the U.K. because of high rates of unemployment in the Med countries. The connection between the £-based U.K. economy, and the €-based economies is never made.

5. The fallacy of democracy.
This is the claim that the EU is somehow not democratic. First, this ignores both the role of the EU parliament, which needs to approve key appointments and initiatives of the EU Commission. Second, it is naive. An elected EU President and Commission (which is what is implied) would create a real alternative powerbase in Opposition to the nation states. No nation wants this is as it would be a real step toward a federal superstate.

6. The fallacy of protectionism.
This is the tenet that the EU is a protectionist cartel, ignoring that it has more FTAs than any other international entity, not to mention the significant arrangements with much of Africa and the Caribbean due to special provision for former colonies.

Have I missed any?

Carolus_Rex said:

sarissa said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

How long until it all becomes ancient history? Presumably you have no problem being in a political union with a country that dropped bombs on us and killed thousands of our people.

And what about Dresden? Are we guiltless?

Basil Fawlty: Is there something wrong?
German Guest: Will you stop talking about the war?
Basil Fawlty: Me? You started it.
German Guest: We did not!
Basil Fawlty: Yes, you did. You invaded Poland!

On a related matter, is anyone going to tonight's Dambusters 75th anniversary gala screening at the Albert Hall or (like me) a live screening at this local cinema? Looking forward to the spanking new 4k digital print.

I bet they leave out the dog.

If you love dogs there's a three part special about a dog starting this Sunday on BBC1 at 9pm.

A Very English Scandal about a dog called Rinka.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

How long until it all becomes ancient history? Presumably you have no problem being in a political union with a country that dropped bombs on us and killed thousands of our people.

And what about Dresden? Are we guiltless?

Whilst I agree that we should not dwell on the past nor use it to justify current actions, this sort of moral equivalency is pretty sick.

Another one falls for Goebel's line that a major rail junction 60 miles from the front line with the Soviets was of no military value.....Berlin endured much heavier bombing with much lower casualties.....nothing to do with local preparedness of course.....

Gardenwalker said:

Brexitism rests on several fallacies, which are recited ad nauseum on here.

[snip]

Have I missed any?

7. The fallacy of exceptionalism.
This is the tenet that the EU might be fine for them, but Britain is just too special for it.

8. The fallacy of power.
This is the idea that Brexit would be a negotiation of equals and that the EU would be running round at the behest of German carmakers to offer us whatever we want.

Elliot said:

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

How long until it all becomes ancient history? Presumably you have no problem being in a political union with a country that dropped bombs on us and killed thousands of our people.

And what about Dresden? Are we guiltless?

Less guilty than the Irish, who remained neutral against the regime that wanted to commit more evil than any other in world history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dublin_in_World_War_II

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or accept there will be some sort of border as far as technology allows.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

It depends what you mean by "work". MaxFac doesn't remove the infrastructure. It just means some people get through infrastructure quicker. It is actually more useful at Dover (and at any potential Irish Sea customs posts) than on the Irish land border...

Precisely.
I was suggesting >nothing< at the border.

I misunderstood. That's the NI backstop. The DUP wouldn't be happy if it really happened.

Why ?
It needn't be a de facto border between GB and Northern Ireland - just applying the same rules at >all< UK ports, without discrimination, in order to satisfy the EU's pencil-heads.

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or accept there will be some sort of border as far as technology allows.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

It depends what you mean by "work". MaxFac doesn't remove the infrastructure. It just means some people get through infrastructure quicker. It is actually more useful at Dover (and at any potential Irish Sea customs posts) than on the Irish land border...

Precisely.
I was suggesting >nothing< at the border.

I misunderstood. That's the NI backstop. The DUP wouldn't be happy if it really happened.

Why ?
It needn't be a de facto border between GB and Northern Ireland - just applying the same rules at >all< UK ports, without discrimination, in order to satisfy the EU's pencil-heads.

The DUP has already taken any hint of an Irish Sea border off the table.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Elliot said:

I don't see why the rest of us should be held to ransom by a handful of religious bigots that get upset at flags.

Indeed.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/856242373483008001

That he isn't afraid of showing his desired direction of travel, unlike British politicians who pursued EU integration by stealth?

I think that's unfair to British politicians. If they had been doing that, we'd never have held the referendum in the first place. Their problem was more profound than that - a kind of false consciousness whereby they convinced themselves that we had an arms length relationship with the EU and weren't really that dependent on our relationships within it.

Hopefully after Brexit is reversed this will end and we'll start to see the EU flag flying alongside the Union Jack in the same way other member states do.

surby said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

.

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or accept there will be some sort of border as far as technology allows.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

Fianna Fail seems against it as they perceive it would lead to a border.

A similar system hasn't lead to that in Switzerland. Their concerns should be noted and ignored.

Another one either oblivious to our recent history or unpatriotic enough not to give a fuck. That said you are young, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

I cross the Swiss/German border a lot. I've never been stopped and I've never had to make a customs declaration, that's both on foot or in a car.

Our car was stopped along the Swiss-French border. Only for a cursory inspection of the booth.

There's pretty major border infrastructure on the motorway between Annecy and Geneva - all traffic was stopped there when I went through a few months ago. Inspection was fairly cursory but a frictionless border it isn't.

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Or aproceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

It depends what you mean by "work". MaxFac doesn't remove the infrastructure. It just means some people get through infrastructure quicker. It is actually more useful at Dover (and at any potential Irish Sea customs posts) than on the Irish land border...

Precisely.
I was suggesting >nothing< at the border.

I misunderstood. That's the NI backstop. The DUP wouldn't be happy if it really happened.

Why ?
It needn't be a de facto border between GB and Northern Ireland - just applying the same rules at >all< UK ports, without discrimination, in order to satisfy the EU's pencil-heads.

The DUP has already taken any hint of an Irish Sea border off the table.

Not a border - simply a record of trade flows through all UK ports.
Would apply equally to traffic between (say) Liverpool and Bristol.

This is worth a read.

https://twitter.com/max_read/status/996841366083850240?s=21

Gardenwalker said:

This is worth a read.

https://twitter.com/max_read/status/996841366083850240?s=21

I read that this morning. It really is very interesting and shows why the working classes are voting the way they are.

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single marke Ireland.

Or aproceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

It depends what you mean by "work". MaxFac doesn't remove the infrastructure. It just means some people get through infrastructure quicker. It is actually more useful at Dover (and at any potential Irish Sea customs posts) than on the Irish land border...

Precisely.
I was suggesting >nothing< at the border.

I misunderstood. That's the NI backstop. The DUP wouldn't be happy if it really happened.

Why ?
It needn't be a de facto border between GB and Northern Ireland - just applying the same rules at >all< UK ports, without discrimination, in order to satisfy the EU's pencil-heads.

The DUP has already taken any hint of an Irish Sea border off the table.

Not a border - simply a record of trade flows through all UK ports.
Would apply equally to traffic between (say) Liverpool and Bristol.

Yep I get that but at some point there would need to be eg. Rules of Origin details made known otherwise there would be the opportunity for regulatory arbitrage.

Indeed - but that still doesn't mean any kind of border between NI and rUK. It does mean a whole load of work (either developing expensive solutions, or actual work), and would be something of a PITA - but it does square the circle.
And it leaves a certain amount of room for fudge, if the flow of goods isn't massive.

In any event, don't blame me - I voted remain.

Interestingly no DUP signatories....

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

Brexitism rests on several fallacies, which are recited ad nauseum on here.

[snip]

Have I missed any?

7. The fallacy of exceptionalism.
This is the tenet that the EU might be fine for them, but Britain is just too special for it.

That may be your reading of it. Another reading is that Britain - by virtue of a very different legal and political culture (and history) - is different to (not better or more special just different) the majority of the states in the EU. And that, as a result of QMV, the way the majority were developing the EU was in a way which was becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Britain. (See for instance the way most EU states describe free movement as just that whereas the British regard it as immigration.). That could have been resolved by a more flexible approach rather than a one-size-fits-all approach but, for various reasons, that was either not on offer and/or not taken up.

The equivalent Remainer fallacy would be the fallacy that because lots of British travel abroad, have foreign friends, work in Europe etc that somehow Britain is becoming more European which rather focuses on the superficial and underestimates the reality of how different, under the surface, apparently similar countries are.

There is the equivalent Atlanticist fallacy, of course, which does not appreciate how very different the UK and the US are and witters on, instead, about a special relationship which only ever existed in Churchill's understandable desperation 1940 - 1945.

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:

Brexitism rests on several fallacies, which are recited ad nauseum on here.

1. The fallacy of opportunity.
This is the idea that because the EU is “only” c48% of our trade - and in relative decline, we should leave to take advantage of other opportunities. It ignores the fact that EU FTAs comprise a further c20% of our trade, not to mention the clear counterexample of Germany’s export success.

2. The fallacy of independence.
This is the idea that we too can be Norway - who is tightly integrated with the EU via EFTA, or Switzerland - ditto via bespoke and contentious FTAs - while pursuing a “WTO” Brexit. In reality, the U.K. must and will have a close relationship with the EU.

3. The fallacy of individuality.
This is the idea that we are better negotiating trade deals alone for ourselves than diluting our demands with 27 other countries. It ignores the clear advantages of negotiating clout that accrue as part of a global trading superpower.

4. The fallacy of unemployment.
This is the claim that the EU is detrimental to the U.K. because of high rates of unemployment in the Med countries. The connection between the £-based U.K. economy, and the €-based economies is never made.

5. The fallacy of democracy.
This is the claim that the EU is somehow not democratic. First, this ignores both the role of the EU parliament, which needs to approve key appointments and initiatives of the EU Commission. Second, it is naive. An elected EU President and Commission (which is what is implied) would create a real alternative powerbase in Opposition to the nation states. No nation wants this is as it would be a real step toward a federal superstate.

6. The fallacy of protectionism.
This is the tenet that the EU is a protectionist cartel, ignoring that it has more FTAs than any other international entity, not to mention the significant arrangements with much of Africa and the Caribbean due to special provision for former colonies.

Have I missed any?

The fallacy that the EU's interest lies primarily in a good trading deal with the UK. Although that is a desirable thing, its first priority is the integrity of its system and the value of membership. Both of which Brexit threatens.

The fallacy that divergence is better than compliance. Compliance enables trade and has value.

I voted remain and agree with a lot of Gardenwalker points. However, I honestly don't think you could call the EU democratic. We have a voice but the cost of the other benefits is a lack of democracy.

The other point I will make is that if you have a minimum wage somewhere North of Birmingham you are not likely feeling a great deal of the benefits. I hear it repeatedly said that people wouldn't vote to make themselves worse off, and in response I note the number of Labour voting ABC1 types in last years election.

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster, even if we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

It's far better if we have a vote on the deal, reject Brexit heavily, and *then* go through the soul-searching to process why we ever got to that point in the first place. That's the time when we should join the Euro.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

Hmm, haven’t some been arguing we should stay in?

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

It's far better if we have a vote on the deal, reject Brexit heavily, and *then* go through the soul-searching to process why we ever got to that point in the first place. That's the time when we should join the Euro.

We should never join the Euro.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

Hmm, haven’t some been arguing we should stay in?

Yes, but talk is cheap, the ones who deliver it will be the ones accused of treason.

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

It's far better if we have a vote on the deal, reject Brexit heavily, and *then* go through the soul-searching to process why we ever got to that point in the first place. That's the time when we should join the Euro.

We should never join the Euro.

That idea was put to the people in 2016 and they rejected it.

Anyway it's far too nice a day to be inside for a moment longer than necessary.

It may be my frivolous pea-brain but every time I read about MaxFac I keep wondering what a cosmetics company has to do with Brexit......



(BTW for @BeverleyC: Geoffrey Taylor's book on Dresden explains why Dresden was a legitimate military target not just a beautiful city mindlessly destroyed for no reason. Oh - and for @Topping (and anyone who reads Arabic) this may be of interest - http://cdn.timesofisrael.com/blogs/uploads/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-15-at-15.59.31.png.)

Bye all. The garden awaits.

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

Brexitism rests on several fallacies, which are recited ad nauseum on here.


4. The fallacy of unemployment.
This is the claim that the EU is detrimental to the U.K. because of high rates of unemployment in the Med countries. The connection between the £-based U.K. economy, and the €-based economies is never made.

Come, come: the connection has been made. The unemployment in the Med countries is one reason why some many of their young are working in the UK. That has brought home the reality of FoM in a way that has surprised and displeased some.

The real fallacy is not this but that this is a bad thing. It is on the whole a good thing but which does have some significant costs, which have not been fairly shared, something often ignored by Remainers moaning about xenophobic Leavers.

The point I failed to articulate is not that.
It’s the idea that the EU is a failed economic project (witness unemployment in the Med) and that if we stay in it will keep us back somehow too.

In that sense, unemployment in, say, Italy is a non sequitur. But thank you (and others) for your builds and corrections.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

Hmm, haven’t some been arguing we should stay in?

Yes, but talk is cheap, the ones who deliver it will be the ones accused of treason.

So they would only be “Jo Cox’d” if they went through with it? Hmmm.

I like to think that they would simply get demolished at the ballot box.

The far right is on the rise once again in the UK.

Sadly.

anothernick said:

surby said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

.

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

To prevent a border of some sort in Ireland we have to be in the Single Market. That is a given.

If we are in the Single Market then there is freedom of movement. Agreeing to stay in a CU simply sets the stage for remaining in the SM whether you, Corbyn or May want it or not.

Neither the single market nor the customs union alone are sufficient to avoid a border. It's true that if you had to pick one, the single market gets you further than the customs union, but we need both. The only way round this is to jettison Northern Ireland.

Now personally I am in favour of a united Ireland but not by imposition. I return to my previous position which is if Ireland and the EU want a hard border then that is their affair. We should simply proceed as if there is no need for one and let them play catch up.

The lack of political nous in saying so what if there is a border in Ireland is astounding. To be so unaware of what happened in Ireland over the past 10, 40, 400+ years is extraordinary. And all in the pursuit of your blessed Brexit.

How many different ways do you need to be told: there will be no border on or around the island of Ireland. If you really think the UK government is going to fuck with this issue you are more clueless than even your daily posts suggest.

Why would MaxFac at all significant UK ports (including in NI), with no significant Irish border infrastructure, not work ?

Fianna Fail seems against it as they perceive it would lead to a border.

A similar system hasn't lead to that in Switzerland. Their concerns should be noted and ignored.

Another one either oblivious to our recent history or unpatriotic enough not to give a fuck. That said you are young, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

I cross the Swiss/German border a lot. I've never been stopped and I've never had to make a customs declaration, that's both on foot or in a car.

Our car was stopped along the Swiss-French border. Only for a cursory inspection of the booth.

There's pretty major border infrastructure on the motorway between Annecy and Geneva - all traffic was stopped there when I went through a few months ago. Inspection was fairly cursory but a frictionless border it isn't.

Yes. I am sure if it was not a car but a truck or commercial vehicle, the checks would have been different.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

Hmm, haven’t some been arguing we should stay in?

Yes, but talk is cheap, the ones who deliver it will be the ones accused of treason.

So they would only be “Jo Cox’d” if they went through with it? Hmmm.

I like to think that they would simply get demolished at the ballot box.

The far right is on the rise once again in the UK.

Sadly.

You are referring to the rise in reported hate crime? Electorally, I see no evidence of this.

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

Not sure Leavers will accept that compromise.
They will ask why it is taking so long to do something they believe is so simple.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-history

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

Not sure Leavers will accept that compromise.
They will ask why it is taking so long to do something they believe is so simple.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-history

Even the Guardian admit he said it won’t be easy in practice. It should be easy because the UK is in full alignment with EU law and regulations.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The compromise on the customs union question is obvious and is apparently going to be taken. Britain will remain in something that is substantially the customs union for a time-limited and potentially renewable period while the zealots use the time to do extra Charms classes at Hogwarts to come up with a magical solution.

So the UK will end up in position in which it continues to suffer most of the disadvantages of EU membership but enjoys few of the advantages. The exact opposite of the prospectus offered by Leave at the referendum.

Yup: if this is really what is on offer we may as well stay in.

Indeed but Leavers are obsessives, any politician who proposed that would get Jo Cox’d.

Is the toxic environment we live.

Far better we Leave and if people see it is a disaster we rejoin on worse terms than we currently have.

Joining the Euro might be the ultimate legacy of Farage, Gove, and Boris.

Hmm, haven’t some been arguing we should stay in?

Yes, but talk is cheap, the ones who deliver it will be the ones accused of treason.

So they would only be “Jo Cox’d” if they went through with it? Hmmm.

I like to think that they would simply get demolished at the ballot box.

The far right is on the rise once again in the UK.

Sadly.

You are referring to the rise in reported hate crime? Electorally, I see no evidence of this.

I wonder how many votes the far right got in the local elections? Personally I don't think of UKIP as far right, but I know many people do, and if you look back over the last twenty years at the number of votes for the BNP, and latterly UKIP, I think the far right is in retreat.

surby said:

Our car was stopped along the Swiss-French border. Only for a cursory inspection of the booth.

One of my favourite examples of Swiss efficiency was a friend who travelled to France to buy a turkey at a time when (unbeknownst to him) the Swiss were banning turkey imports due to a health scare - he routinely bought food in France because it was cheaper.

At the border, the Swiss asked if he was carrying any poultry, and he said yes. They told him he couldn't bring it in and therefore had a choice of throwing it away or turning back into France.

He thought about it, turned back, and drove 40 km to the next border post, this time hiding the turkey in the boot under a pile of clothes. He drove up to the border and said cheerfully "Nothing to declare". The Swiss customs official smiled delphically: "And what about the turkey, sir?"

That said, there have always been border posts that are only enforced by roving spot checks a kilometer or two inland.