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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Be wary of YouGov’s finding that Britain’s voting intentions is classless
Queues like I've never seen out the polling station in hackney pic.twitter.com/oDUBM7wBVj
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It'd be interesting to see a plot of the class subsamples over time. Hard to tell if the recent poll was an outlier or not.
Indeed, Mr. Herdson.
Mr. Loony, sensible as ever
A court can declare any corrupt vote void. If it does, this nullifies the Prime Minister’s notification to the EU of the UK’s intention to leave.
Does it really? The executive doesn't need the approval of a referendum to conduct diplomacy.
Edit: as a commenter pointed out, the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 provides a firm foundation for the A50 notification.
I'll get my coat....
The big questions therefore are whether it is (long term) temporary, or permanent re-alignment, and whether Brexit reflects its culmination or will bring about an acceleration. If the latter in both cases then we will see a shift in politics as dramatic as the one in the US that switched the geography of Republican and Democratic support in the 20th century, with rich and poor states switching places..
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
Our constitutional requirement is that any vote must be free and fair
The referendum informed the decision to trigger Article 50, but it was the Parliamentary vote based on it that formally did the deed with the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017.
Sympathetic as I am to the writer, it has to be accepted that the UK’s actions do satisfy the need to arrive at the decision by the UK’s constitutional requirements. Ironically, if Gina Miller hadn’t intervened, the UK’s government’s fatal error would have stood and, the fraud exposed, the EU would not have accepted that the UK had legitimately served Article 50
Parliament voted to enact the corruptly expressed 'will of the people'
If the vote was corrupt, the 'will' was corrupt and Parliament was misled (constitutionally a bad thing...)
https://i.redd.it/cc19pq4y0xn01.jpg
Not to mention the £9mn for HMG's Remain pamphlet.
What then? Referendum II: Refer Harder?
It's an interesting possibility but I think it's unlikely to occur.
Also, this tweet entertained me. Perhaps Corbyn would look less like a Leninist if he didn't dress like one.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/995054259975737344
"“If we don’t get the negotiation right, your economic security and prosperity will be put at risk”" [Mrs M last year]
"The government is not yet in freefall only because it has not finished building its own scaffold"
"Bystanders in the EU are slowly accepting that there is no clever subplot behind the superficial chaos and no method in the madness"
"One year after May threatened us with the consequences of a botched negotiation, she has not even begun to discuss a final deal, and does not know what to ask for when she does. She is right that our children and grandchildren’s jobs are at risk. And it is more important to save their jobs than hers."
I expect it would be very different from last time.
Social media companies have already announced they are not accepting advertising during the Ireland referendum, so that whole dynamic would change. No Cambridge Analytica.
The prominent players would also be different.
BoZo would be compelled to campaign for Leave again, but his £350m has already been annulled by him, so he would need a new gimmick. Dan Hannan has admitted Brexit isn't working out like he thought, so not clear what pitch he can make next time.
Of course if Tezza leads Remain then we are out with an increased majority
What's different and mildly entertaining about this case is that it appears some of the nastier elements in our political system have been caught committing actual fraud, for which with luck they will be given jail terms so we can all point and laugh at them.
What's worrying about the blogpost is that a law lecturer at one of our leading universities doesn't appear to have a grasp of basic law (somebody who is unaware that the role of our courts is to enforce the law, not interpret our unwritten constitution is not somebody who can be considered to be cluefull). King's College can't be too fussy in its hiring procedures. That said QMUL employed Tristram Hunt...
Edit - he also appears to be unaware of the law of libel. Hasn't the Electoral Commission ruled out Leave using CA?
For instance the AB class includes many more public sector employees than it did in the early 1980s
I’m not sure it’s a useful analysis
The new divide now seems to be xenophobes/Powellite/Leavers versus cosmopolitan/Remainers.
Though it's never been clearer to know which group you fit into it's never been more difficult to know which party comes closest to representing you.
52 seconds into this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23egCxDucfo
Or:
https://twitter.com/Tim_R_Dawson/status/975057023405576192
I'm quite surprised, given the interests of this site, that you appear unaware of that.
AIUI it was an existing hat but through the filtering it lost some of the definition so looked more like a Russian hat. Or something.
A sequels are so depressing.
What we have here is a politician with a history of social media faceplants - Joanne Cherry - attempting to use a perfectly simple rejection of a trollish complaint about Corbyn as mud to sling at the BBC, and making herself look silly (again).
All simply and straightforwardly explain in the article Cherry seems not to have bothered to read properly.
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/974748439476166656
For the millionth time: The manifesto cannot be implemented while a member of the EU or the single market.
You were never left wing, you're a liberal who has run out of space for posturing and is reverting to form.
Stop posting on a politics forum as a party member and go read the relevant material before posting again.
All the polls are wrong IMHO . None can be trusted
"The hat was photoshopped on" is not 'using the term photoshopping generically'. It is repeating a specific - entirely untrue - claim.
The image was distorted (a little too tall) because the people who complained took their photos on a curved screen (says the article).
Corbyn presumably wears a Lenin hat because he likes it, and the associations that goes with it. If the hat fits - wear it.
Anyway - I'm off to a RYA Push the Boat Out event for a free trial of some sailing boats.
It is one of the programme’s charms, and is in no way an indication of political bias - other than the habit of not taking politicians quite as seriously as they take themselves.
If you enjoy such parlour games that is your prerogative. But don't imagine you are part of a proper political debate. In fact you are helping close it down.
Thank you, as always, David, for the Saturday piece. TBH, when I see the word "class" in any political analysis or commentary, I switch off or remember fondly John Law's classic sketch on the Frost Report.
I would also suppose that the shifting tectonic plates of "class" mean Stephen Timms must consider his hyper-marginal 43,000 majority under threat.
Seats change because areas and regions change as people, business and industry move in and out. East Ham South was once a Conservative area - I suspect even the staunchest Conservative supporter would concede that's unlikely now. Seats change as parties change and we can all map how seats have become more one-sided or less so with time.
It may be mobility is far greater than we imagine but it's a different kind of mobility - perhaps less social and more cultural. People like people like themselves - people like to be with the people they want to be.
The successful politician identifies with that cultural theme - they become either the spokesperson or the role model for that which a large section of the population aspires to be. Margaret Thatcher was the epitome of middle class suburban culture in the post war period - Blair was the evolution of that to the 1990s and Cameron to the next generation.
Neither May nor Corbyn are where Britain is now or where it is going and it is only the mutual fear (or antipathy) that preserves both like anachronistic flies in amber.
Next.
We read every one of the 3,517 Facebook ads bought by Russians. Their dominant strategy: Sowing racial discord
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/05/11/what-we-found-facebook-ads-russians-accused-election-meddling/602319002/
Has there been a similar study of how Russia duped Britons into voting for or against Brexit or that man in the funny hat?
(hat-tip: reddit)
Earlier, you wrote: "You do realise the hat was photoshopped on?"
Then you wrote: "I don't follow the news. That is why I am better informed about current affairs than most people on here. I was using the term photoshopping generically. The details of how the image was distorted to misrepresent Mr Corbyn don't matter."
Given that, and the second sentence in the second post, I'm afraid it does rather make you look like an astroturfer.
I'd agree on Corbyn up to a point though I think "traditional working class" Labour is not what some nostalgically remember. It is changing and becoming less deferential to and less respectful of the economic order (one of the consequences of 2008 perhaps). As the moderate centre left economics seemed to fail so disastrously, more radical solutions have gained credence and are represented by Corbyn/McDonnell.
As for May, you are a conservative and I'll take your word on that. I have my doubts - I begin to suspect her and Corbyn's relationship is entirely symbiotic. When one goes the other will swiftly follow.
Conversely, May probably plays better to the nostalgic notion of what conservatism was as distinct from what it is or could be. I consider her interventionist on a scale Heath and Heseltine would appreciate and her willingness to use the mechanisms of the State to force through policy seems a world away from Thatcherite notions of self-reliance and self-responsibility and a small State.
She is far too authoritarian for me and I'm surprised so many so-called "liberal" Conservatives are comfortable with her use of State power but all you have to say is "Corbyn" and everyone falls into line.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/11/george-osborne-reveals-delight-discovering-jewish/
But, suppose for the sake of argument, that Gina Miller had never brought her case? The EU would surely have treated an A.50 Notification by the Government as valid. They have no interest in arguing over our constitutional law.
Previously they would sit in the corner of the pub wailing into their pint of mild. Now they can sit in their mums basement and crywank with like-simple-minded people 24/7.
Hopefully just a fad.
Corbyn is certainly a good fit for Radical Left Britain, but not so much for either more centrist Labour voters, or for people who switched to Labour over Brexit.
Now the dog needs his delayed morning walk....
Wasn't one of his relations peripherally involved with Lord Lucan?
If judged by the number and volume of pb threads dominated by his legacies, Edward Heath is surely the greatest Prime Minister of all time.
Mr. F, indeed. I do wonder if they'd do that now, given the chance.
Mr. Recidivist, you are a silly sausage. You said the hat was photoshopped on. Then you said how well-informed you are, after admitting you didn't know it was not. Then you claimed 'photoshopped on' doesn't mean it was put on in photoshop.
Astroturf indeed.
The U.K. has only had three great post-war PMs - all Tories - McMillan, Thatcher, and Blair!
Heath is mid-table.
Edit: Probably one above Cameron.
The public sector middle class has been trending leftwards.
There are variations to these general trends - the collapse in the LibDems in SW England will have seen Labour gain working class votes while in Scotland the Conservatives would have gained unionist middle class votes.
In that sense, the last ten years of non-majorities (2015 aside) can be seen as a return to the norm after the outstanding achievements of Thatcher, then Blair.
http://bloghd.blogspot.co.uk/2010/05/george-osbornes-alleged-jewish.html
I hesitate to use the word unspoofable, but...
I note you specifically claimed it was 'photoshopped on', not distorted in some fashion. Even if you used photoshopped generically to refer to some kind of digital manipulation, you were clear on the manner that manipulation took - putting it on.
The hat story is one of the silliest stories on a long time, I cannot believe it is back. The government is in enough a shambles, it might even collapse, and some are still upset about how Corbyn's hat looked.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848
The gains Thatcher made with C2s after council house sales have been accelerated by the Tories post Brexit and the Tories won the strongly pro Brexit skilled working class at the last general election helped by defections from UKIP which did particularly well with that group in 2015. C1s however were almost tied between Labour and the Tories as this is the group which has seen the biggest decline in home ownership due to rising house prices, the group hit hardest by university tuition fees rises and also the group which was most divided in the EU referendum.
Indeed there is now a far bigger dividing line based on the age of voters and particularly between pensioners and the young than there is over social class.
He and Thatcher are the most consequential post war PMs with Churchill having been a great war PM but less great post war.
Which it won't, we've seen over and over stories on any true or fake associations don't harm him.
There were also plenty of Labour figures like Roy Jenkins who were pro EEC and plenty of Tories like Enoch Powell who were anti EEC, it was and still is the Liberals who were most pro a European Union from Jeremy Thorpe to Nick Clegg and indeed Jenkins would eventually join the SDP in part because of that
Was it when he realised his middle name was Gideon?
[/Tim Mode Off]