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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds that ex-Londoners are more likely to vote LAB even after they’ve left
NEW POLL – Been working with @election_data looking at how ex-Londoners (those that moved out of London in past 5 years ) voted in the last couple of elections. TLDR – They swung towards Labour https://t.co/aL2xQh8hLU pic.twitter.com/ru4hw0cvAS
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Wow just out of court after a very hot and sweaty day and I get a first. Things are looking up.
Like Corbynistas.
Victory for Fleet Street and the hacks!
It should also be noted that the Tories have been making inroads into the Brexit voting Midlands, including winning seats like Mansfield and Nuneaton that even Kinnock won
Cool and raining here in the NW. Proper weather.
PS Hope you escaped with a light sentence. Mr L.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/992662175243292672
Labour is not suddenly going to start sweeping the south east and East Anglia. However, there are a clutch of seats that look newly vulnerable to them. Labour don't need to take 60 seats in the south east and East Anglia: 15 would do them very nicely.
1. Londoners move into surrounding constituencies, boosting the potential Labour vote.
2. The longer Londoners live in those constituencies, the more they adopt the voting habits of the locals, boosting the potential Conservative vote.
What would be interesting is whether or not (and I suspect not) those moving away have different average voting preferences to those remaining.
"We surveyed more than 25,000 voters last weekend – after the local elections – to identify a sample of respondents who have left London in recent years, to find out which parties they supported in the 2015 and 2017 general elections, as well as the 2016 EU referendum. The results are striking. On attitudes to Europe, those who have migrated out of London in the past five years were more likely to have voted remain than those they were leaving behind, breaking 66% remain to 34% leave.
At the 2017 general election, Labour experienced similar swings among these ex-Londoners as it did among those who remained in London, increasing itsvote share by 11% on the previous election among ex-Londoners while the Conservatives’ vote share fell by 3% (a seven-point swing to Labour).
The net result means that Labour held a 12-point lead over the Conservatives among these ex-Londoners in the 2017 general election, with the parties on 47% and 35% retrospectively.
Historically speaking, you might have expected these voters to be much more Conservative. Many can be described as affluent young families with suburban mindsets. Seven in 10 are ABC1 social grade. However, over the last two years they have moved from supporting the Conservatives, then the remain side in the European referendum, and now Labour."
It's hard to avoid the B word when looking for an explanation of this type of movement.
I've laid the Lib Dems on Betfair, the Greens should have a serious tilt at coming 2nd in the forthcoming BE I think.
Plus the Tories could pick up more seats in the Midlands and parts of the North
In despair, the wealth-earners are voting Labour. While the wealth-takers are quite happy to close down others’ opportunities as they will still get their pension, benefit etc.
There is definitely potential for a Brexit vote for the Lib Dems, especially if Corbyn whips against the Lords amendments, but the 2006 result must have been to do with Blair-weariness, Iraq etc. which simply doesn't apply to Corbyn; he's what some of those LD's wanted all along.
Disclosure: ex-Londoner, Tory then, Tory now.
But as they get older, they get more of a stake in things as they are and less eager to embrace any change that comes along, so older people do tend to be more Conservative, especially for some reason after they stop working - Labour usually has a majority of people of working age, but is miles behind after 65.
Whether all these dynamics will remain true is an interesting question!
what is it about Londoners that they cant conceive that anywhere else has as many views as they do.
Are you all forced fed Cold Comfort Farm or something ?
Bizarrely, 92-yr-old Mahathir has pledged to put Anwar Ibrahim into power - the protege turned rival Mahathir jailed for “sodomy” in 1998.
There’s still hope for Ken Clarke. Or even Lord Heseltine!
Living in London makes no sense nowadays unless you are tied to the capital through work. My saving in housing costs will pay for enough visits to London each year, staying in a central London hotel, to enjoy its cultural offering at the same rate as I have previously by travelling in by tube from the suburbs, through to an age when I expect to either be in some care home or telling for the LibDems at the pearly gates.
Although it is true that Remainers did best with ABs and Leavers with C2s and DEs
Is the ABC system purely based on income?
The class divide in politics, at least amongst the working population, has now all but disappeared. The idle rich still lean toward the Tories, and the idle poor toward Labour, but for everyone else, class/occupation is no longer any indication of voting behaviour.
Affluent Anywheres and impoverished Somewheres. Perhaps.
Luckily for the Tories, though sadly for the country, there are more idlers than workers, and the trend is likely to continue.
Edited extra bit: and huzzah for the defeat of the censorious Witchsmeller Pursuivant!
At the last general election the Tories won ABs and C2s, Labour won DEs and the two tied C1s.
Though it is also true to say the LDs get the highest percentage of their support from ABs and UKIP the highest percentage from C2s and DEs
One customer said had he wanted to see potted plants and curtains he would have bought a furnishings catalogue.
https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/994252653722046465?s=21
But the serious point remains: the income earners are trending Labour, those on benefits and pensions toward Tory.
Thus, given the UK’s economic geography, the South is trending Labour, the North Tory.
Not wholesale of course, but enough to make a difference.
Tsk tsk
As I said on the last thread it is imperative that we increase home ownership and reduce private renting, not only is it bad for us as a party, it is economically questionable as it concentrates wealth among fewer people and reduces the spending power of working age people.
The writing is on the wall folks!
All of those measures would take the heat out of the housing market.
I see the problems, I propose solutions!
Anyway, I must be off. For those into The One Hundred*, it resumes tonight, 9pm, E4. What mischief will our improbably attractive nuclear holocaust survivors get up to now?
*I know, it's meant to be The Hundred (The 100). But The One Hundred reminds me of Xenophon's Anabasis. It also resumes for those not into the series.
Lowering house prices may well be popular with aspiring home owners, but deeply unpopular with existing ones.
On the Continent, often other dynamics apply.
A hotbed of pro Brexit Tory MPs as well - Bernard Jenkin, James Cleverly, John Whittingdale, Kemi Badenoch, Will Quince and last but not least Priti Patel! How could you go wrong which ever area you move to.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Same deal with Berlin or Frankfurt property compared to London.
Personally I am unsure which is the better balance but the idea that large scale home ownership is necessarily automatically better for the country seems a case unproven. And certainly at the moment the widely held belief that homes should be an investment rather than just somewhere to live - with the associated need for ever increasing house prices - is seriously damaging our economy and our social wellbeing.
What we need in this country is a serious rebalance of house prices - deflation of probably at least 30%. But no Government will countenance that because of the damage it would do to so many people who see their house as their pension.
Today's old people were once young and do you think they were Tories when they were young? Were they born Tory?
It would also hold nominal rents steady all else being equal making that aspect superior.
Of course if you're trying to move house some rental sector is needed else your chain will have a much greater probability of failure.
The Bill will scrap current boundary review and replace it with new one with:
- 650 seats (not 600)
- Tolerance 92.5 to 107.5 (not 95 to 105)
- NI fixed at 18 seats irrespective of population changes
- Reviews every 10 years (not 5) after first review - see below
All other rules as per current review.
First review - Boundary Reports to be issued before 1 October 2020 so would still mean new boundaries on above basis before next GE as long as Govt survives post October 2020.