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SystemSystem Posts: 12,678
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle for Wandsworth from a LAB perspective

Theresa May had a bit of a cheek turning up in Wandsworth and claiming a victory where the Tories came within a whisker of losing their jewel in the crown council

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  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Firts.JC's not going anywhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    edited May 2018
    Sounds rather like sour grapes for me that Labour threw everything at Wandsworth and the Tories still held it.

    As for Corbyn, if he does form a minority government propped up by the LDs and SNP, the Tories would still be largest party and having the role of opposition in mainland GB all to themselves.

    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    Thanks Don, although electing a woman just because she’s a woman sounds like a terrible idea.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,286
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm afraid in politics there are few prizes for a close second. Had Labour taken control of Wandsworth it would have been a valuable counter-point to the failure to take Barnet. It wouldn't have completely changed the narrative but it would have been hugely significant.

    As it is, all Labour had was winning Plymouth and robbing the Tories of their majority in Trafford (and winning Tower Hamlets I suppose) even though Labour made net gains and the Conservatives net losses overall (and a hundred losses in London).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,286
    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    And they are a month or so after the UK is due to leave the EU. Might be a lot of explaining to do on the doorstep.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    The SNP and Plaid are both internally split over Brexit, like every other party outside Northern Ireland with the possible exception of the Liberal Democrats. While a deal with the Tories would be toxic for them and is very unlikely to happen (although the SNP did have confidence and supply from the Tories from 2007-2011 and it doesn't seem to have done them much harm) I also think Don gravely underestimates how damaging a deal at national level could be to local Labour parties (and it would be ill-received by Plaid members outside the Valleys too).

    The casual complacency Don shows - as ever - is one reason why Labour seem destined to stay in opposition for the foreseeable future.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Sounds rather like sour grapes for me that Labour threw everything at Wandsworth and the Tories still held it.

    As for Corbyn, if he does form a minority government propped up by the LDs and SNP, the Tories would still be largest party and having the role of opposition in mainland GB all to themselves.

    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    Yes that was before the Scottish referendum , and the EU referendum which both threw ,how politics should work up in that air ,especially for the Labour Party.

    One thing Corbyn learnt was, do not be seen siding with Conservatives , like his Scottish colleagues , as you get wiped out.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,971
    RobD said:

    Thanks Don, although electing a woman just because she’s a woman sounds like a terrible idea.

    I agree, a terrible idea in principle and in general, but in this particular case?

    In a scenario where all parties seem devoid of up & coming leadership potential, shut your eyes & stick in a pin has a lot to recommend it. For Labour picking a woman because she's a woman may be a good way of doing that.

    For the Conservatives, going for Sajid Javid because he's ethnic minority may serve the same purpose.

    Good evening, everyone, and many thanks for the article, Don.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    And they are a month or so after the UK is due to leave the EU. Might be a lot of explaining to do on the doorstep.
    I think there is an excellent chance that there will be some unforeseen consequence of Brexit that will colour the immediate aftermath one way or the other.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Labour came close but I think did less well than in the GE. John Curtice said Battersea would have gone blue on the figures. Labour spinners did a poor job managing expectations and have looked silly trying to pretend they had a great victory.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,191
    Didn’t get past the hyper partisan first sentence.

    Next.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    AnneJGP said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks Don, although electing a woman just because she’s a woman sounds like a terrible idea.

    I agree, a terrible idea in principle and in general, but in this particular case?

    In a scenario where all parties seem devoid of up & coming leadership potential, shut your eyes & stick in a pin has a lot to recommend it. For Labour picking a woman because she's a woman may be a good way of doing that.

    For the Conservatives, going for Sajid Javid because he's ethnic minority may serve the same purpose.

    Good evening, everyone, and many thanks for the article, Don.
    Good evening totally agree.

    Emily Thornberry must have a chance , currently on her own merit In any leadership contest.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,138
    Casino_Royale said:

    Didn’t get past the hyper partisan first sentence.

    Next.

    Labour have only one problem - Corbyn and his cabal and the hard left hangers on
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Casino_Royale said:

    Didn’t get past the hyper partisan first sentence.

    Next.

    Spurs , probably will not finish in the top four ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    True and the Tories will almost certainly make a net loss in both councillors and councils as they start from such a high base next year.

    The key statistic next year though will be the NEV share and whether Labour can get a significant lead after only managing to tie the Tories this year
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I have not read a piece of such poorly-written, badly-punctuated, hyperpartisan drivel for a long time. It really is not up to PB’s usual standards.

    Cyclefree, Mr Meeks, TSE or Sean Fear set the bar very high. This falls way below it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Recidivist said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    And they are a month or so after the UK is due to leave the EU. Might be a lot of explaining to do on the doorstep.
    I think there is an excellent chance that there will be some unforeseen consequence of Brexit that will colour the immediate aftermath one way or the other.
    Unforeseen by Remainers, indeed. It's called success.

    Just like the success when we left the ERM, and didn't join the single currency.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Didn’t get past the hyper partisan first sentence.

    Next.

    Labour have only one problem - Corbyn and his cabal and the hard left hangers on
    Sorry to hear about Sir Alex Ferguson , big g.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    edited May 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Didn’t get past the hyper partisan first sentence.

    Next.

    Spurs , probably will not finish in the top four ?
    In important sport, Middlesex have two defeats, a draw and a solitary win against an under-strength Northants side from their first four matches back in the second division. One of the defeats was to Derbyshire, who hadn't won at home in two years.

    At what point will the London media start writing articles about how bad they must be and how they should be playing Minor Counties cricket leaving professional stuff to the grownups?

    (Hint: the answer is somewhere between 'never' and 'longer than that!')
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Recidivist said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    And they are a month or so after the UK is due to leave the EU. Might be a lot of explaining to do on the doorstep.
    I think there is an excellent chance that there will be some unforeseen consequence of Brexit that will colour the immediate aftermath one way or the other.
    You are Macmillan reborn :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    Mortimer said:

    Recidivist said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    And they are a month or so after the UK is due to leave the EU. Might be a lot of explaining to do on the doorstep.
    I think there is an excellent chance that there will be some unforeseen consequence of Brexit that will colour the immediate aftermath one way or the other.
    Unforeseen by Remainers, indeed. It's called success.

    Just like the success when we left the ERM, and didn't join the single currency.
    Mortimer - is it worth reminding you that the 'success' of Britain's exit from ERM condemned the Tories to 13 years in opposition?

    I could live with a successful Brexit, but a success on those lines putting the Jezaster in Downing Street for a decade - I'll pass on that, thanks.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    ydoethur said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Didn’t get past the hyper partisan first sentence.

    Next.

    Spurs , probably will not finish in the top four ?
    In important sport, Middlesex have two defeats, a draw and a solitary win against an under-strength Northants side from their first four matches back in the second division. One of the defeats was to Derbyshire, who hadn't won at home in two years.

    At what point will the London media start writing articles about how bad they must be and how they should be playing Minor Counties cricket leaving professional stuff to the grownups?

    (Hint: the answer is somewhere between 'never' and 'longer than that!')
    Well at least Yorkshire beat Essex after getting only 50 in first innings.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I hope that one day Jeremy will do the decent thing for the party he loves .... That struck me as a very odd statement, unless by 'the party he loves' Don means something other than Labour; Jeremy Corbyn has spent most of the last forty years at odds with the Labour Party, and now he's working all out to complete the takeover of the Labour Party by its far-left opponents.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    edited May 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    I have not read a piece of such poorly-written, badly-punctuated, hyperpartisan drivel for a long time. It really is not up to PB’s usual standards.

    Cyclefree, Mr Meeks, TSE or Sean Fear set the bar very high. This falls way below it.

    Nah, it's important to have Don Brind writing thread headers.

    It reminds us of the ongoing truth of this Daily Mash classic.

    It also helps to explain why when they should be further out of sight of the Conservatives than a gazelle racing a slug, they aren't, deeply frustrating though that is to those of us who hope endlessly for vaguely competent government.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    BoJo on Fox:

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/5781292164001/?#sp=show-clips

    Two observations:
    1. British policy is very sensible
    2. Boris Johnson looks stupid
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,214
    Wandsworth has a homelessness crisis but the scheme has just 9% affordable housing. The homeless are paying the price for decades of Tory failure. They sold thousands of affordable homes but built only a few hundred in their place.

    Yes, because the Tories have been in power for the last 40 years and nothing has happened since the time of Mrs T that might have contributed to houses becoming unaffordable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    edited May 2018
    Theresa May had a bit of a cheek turning up in Wandsworth and claiming a victory where the Tories came within a whisker of losing their jewel in the crown council

    I don't know that that is the right expression to use - they did win in Wandsworth. Not by much, and thanks to FPTP, but they did win. That might make it a less than perfect choice to claim victory, particularly when Barnet was an unequivocal success, but it's not exactly requiring much cheek to claim victory when victory was achieved.

    The Tories deserved to lose.

    When has deserving ever had much to do with whether someone wins or loses?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,377
    Nothing new under the sun. Kenneth Baker's trumpeting that the Tories held Wandsworth in 1990 is regarded as one of the great spin operations of all time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    AnneJGP said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks Don, although electing a woman just because she’s a woman sounds like a terrible idea.

    I agree, a terrible idea in principle and in general, but in this particular case?

    In a scenario where all parties seem devoid of up & coming leadership potential, shut your eyes & stick in a pin has a lot to recommend it. For Labour picking a woman because she's a woman may be a good way of doing that.

    For the Conservatives, going for Sajid Javid because he's ethnic minority may serve the same purpose.
    Perhaps, although even if such identity politic is the main reason, you have to at least have a credible other reason for backing them. Labour and the Tories should be able to manage that so it is not obvious as 'it's time for a x' type arguments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    edited May 2018
    Thanks for the view from the ground in that key battle, Don, although I have to say I think you've missed the mark somewhat on this point in particular.

    His verdict that “against such a shambolic government, Labour should be doing better than this” reflects a widespread view inside and outside the party. Nonetheless I think he is wrong to argue that the current “stalemate is a result that a government at midterm can live with… A draw is not good enough for the main opposition party.”

    That view isn’t supported by the latest prediction from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus which has the Tories, with a lead over Labour of just over one per cent in polling averages falling 18 short of a Commons majority.

    I think that is a misunderstanding of why what is near enough a draw is something the government can live with. It's not because they or anyone else thinks they would be happy with such vote shares as were achieved at an actual GE. I would think it is because the Tories will hope that an effective draw at this point, including holding onto London councils under threat, presages that they will retain enough of an advantage at an actual GE. The key is his use of 'government at midterm'. Yes, the Tories don't want to be level pegging in the national vote come the next GE, but can they live with level pegging at this point of the electoral cycle? Yes.

    That doesn't mean they will be able to benefit at the next GE as they hope, but given where plenty of other government's have been at such a point, they can indeed live with what they achieved, even if they cannot rest on any laurels. Applying that directly to a potential GE scenario strikes me as analyzing the wrong thing.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Here is a good article on the importance of the Magnitsky act to containing Putin.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/vladimir-putin-kara-murza-axe-files/index.html

    Whatever happened to the financial sanctions we were exploring?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Elliot said:

    Here is a good article on the importance of the Magnitsky act to containing Putin.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/vladimir-putin-kara-murza-axe-files/index.html

    Whatever happened to the financial sanctions we were exploring?

    Talking of which, look who's the most prominent foreigner at Putin's inauguration.
    https://twitter.com/Lucian_Kim/status/993422246998953984
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    BoJo on Fox:

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/5781292164001/?#sp=show-clips

    Two observations:
    1. British policy is very sensible
    2. Boris Johnson looks stupid

    I always find it amusing when americans refer to our politicians as 'Mr Secretary' and the like, as he does there.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    The big narrative line about May's government being incompetent is for most just another big labour lie. Brexit is difficult, given the EU at best first want to negotiate.

    However the rest of government, which is what matters to most, just plods on doing a solidly good job. Record employment, tax cuts, better schools, more money innthe NHS.

    May is never going to be exciting, but she does a pretty decent impersonation of a Ronseal tin.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,367
    I really don't see how cheek comes into it.

    May, by going to Wandsworth, made the story the government is hanging on (by its fingertips) when a trip to Barnet would have had the story that the government is making progress and Corbyn is being seriously hurt by his anti-Semitism. But cheek doesn't come into it. Its just the usual incompetence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    That's a lot of councils in a lot of blue shires - and potentially right at the start of the transition period(?). Could be a time of Tory infighting and bitterness.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    saddo said:

    The big narrative line about May's government being incompetent is for most just another big labour lie. Brexit is difficult, given the EU at best first want to negotiate.

    However the rest of government, which is what matters to most, just plods on doing a solidly good job. Record employment, tax cuts, better schools, more money innthe NHS.

    May is never going to be exciting, but she does a pretty decent impersonation of a Ronseal tin.

    Sorry, EU don't want to negotiate. Worst case is UK keeps shelling out at the same rate as now. Why else would the next EU budget cycle show such a big increase?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    saddo said:

    The big narrative line about May's government being incompetent is for most just another big labour lie. Brexit is difficult, given the EU at best first want to negotiate.

    However the rest of government, which is what matters to most, just plods on doing a solidly good job. Record employment, tax cuts, better schools, more money innthe NHS.

    May is never going to be exciting, but she does a pretty decent impersonation of a Ronseal tin.

    Nah, May does not look particularly competent, even considering the vast difficulty of Brexit. She hasn't managed to get the Cabinet to agree on what they want for christ's sake, and it's been nigh on 2 years.

    The wider government seems to me to be creaking a bit, and 8 years is looking tired and increasingly likely to face scandal and cock up, but not generally terrible.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    How long until Boris flounces?
    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/993502127489200128
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,837
    The homeless are paying the price for decades of Tory failure

    This is a bizarre statement, as it was under the Blair/Brown governments that houses became totally unaffordable. The Conservatives may have failed to solve the problem, but it was made by New Labour, and their poisonous decision to keep house prices high to maintain their support in Middle England.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Thanks for the view from the ground in that key battle, Don, although I have to say I think you've missed the mark somewhat on this point in particular.

    His verdict that “against such a shambolic government, Labour should be doing better than this” reflects a widespread view inside and outside the party. Nonetheless I think he is wrong to argue that the current “stalemate is a result that a government at midterm can live with… A draw is not good enough for the main opposition party.”

    That view isn’t supported by the latest prediction from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus which has the Tories, with a lead over Labour of just over one per cent in polling averages falling 18 short of a Commons majority.

    I think that is a misunderstanding of why what is near enough a draw is something the government can live with. It's not because they or anyone else thinks they would be happy with such vote shares as were achieved at an actual GE. I would think it is because the Tories will hope that an effective draw at this point, including holding onto London councils under threat, presages that they will retain enough of an advantage at an actual GE. The key is his use of 'government at midterm'. Yes, the Tories don't want to be level pegging in the national vote come the next GE, but can they live with level pegging at this point of the electoral cycle? Yes.

    That doesn't mean they will be able to benefit at the next GE as they hope, but given where plenty of other government's have been at such a point, they can indeed live with what they achieved, even if they cannot rest on any laurels. Applying that directly to a potential GE scenario strikes me as analyzing the wrong thing.

    If May had not called the election, we would definitely be in mid term. She did call it with a 20% lead , a year later neck and neck is a success against Corbyn ?.



  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,138
    Yorkcity said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Didn’t get past the hyper partisan first sentence.

    Next.

    Labour have only one problem - Corbyn and his cabal and the hard left hangers on
    Sorry to hear about Sir Alex Ferguson , big g.
    He is quite the most inspirational person you could ever wish to meet. I did have the pleasure of meeting with him on a few occassions and even after having met my daughter and I at the beginning of a meeting he remembered our christian names as he left 3 hours later having met hundreds.

    The measure of the man is his wide respect and he is unlikely ever to lose his acolade as the UK's most successful manager.

    He is a labour person through and through but doubt he would find Corbyn an inspiration
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    "Another hundred votes in the right places would have put Labour in power after forty years in opposition."

    This is a pointless statement. It didn't happen. The same could be said in reverse - another hundred or two hundred votes in the right places and the Conservative majority would have been very solid. But it wasn't.

    In FPTP terms, Labour came up short. End of.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    williamglenn said:

    How long until Boris flounces?
    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/993502127489200128

    He and Davis have been whispering such things since they were appointed it seems. Probably never, and a coming to a head was avoided just recently, but at some point they need to use the nuclear option if they are going to whinge all the time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    williamglenn said:

    Elliot said:

    Here is a good article on the importance of the Magnitsky act to containing Putin.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/vladimir-putin-kara-murza-axe-files/index.html

    Whatever happened to the financial sanctions we were exploring?

    Talking of which, look who's the most prominent foreigner at Putin's inauguration.
    https://twitter.com/Lucian_Kim/status/993422246998953984
    Is that Medvedev at the front? He looks quite Faragey in that photo.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Mr. City, Miliband was ahead.

    It is an interesting counter-factual, though. Imagine she hadn't called the election. Would Labour MPs have managed to oust Corbyn? They stopped trying or even being especially critical until he revealed his love of snuggling Russian bears and the rise of anti-Semitism.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    edited May 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Thanks for the view from the ground in that key battle, Don, although I have to say I think you've missed the mark somewhat on this point in particular.

    That doesn't mean they will be able to benefit at the next GE as they hope, but given where plenty of other government's have been at such a point, they can indeed live with what they achieved, even if they cannot rest on any laurels. Applying that directly to a potential GE scenario strikes me as analyzing the wrong thing.

    If May had not called the election, we would definitely be in mid term. She did call it with a 20% lead , a year later neck and neck is a success against Corbyn ?.

    As I recall the media analysis is that the results were mixed, and I agree with that. I didn't say it was a success, the proposition was whether they could live with the results. Given how oppositions often do in locals, given current polling, and especially given London polling, the Tories can live with mixed results.

    As I noted, that doesn't mean they will benefit at the next GE as they will hope to do. But applying the NEV vote share of the locals directly to a GE scenario is clearly silly, since the Tories being able to live with the results is about them living with such a share at these elections not living with such a share at a GE, which was Don's contention.

    Could they have lived with such results vs their expectations of sweeping all before them from last year? Certainly not, but I'm judging it by the current context, not the context of a year ago.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,971
    I think Don's article raises some important points. For example:

    The £9 billion Battersea Power scheme is a symbol of how they are a soft touch for developers – at the expense of local people crying out for a decent home. Wandsworth has a homelessness crisis but the scheme has just 9% affordable housing. The homeless are paying the price for decades of Tory failure. They sold thousands of affordable homes but built only a few hundred in their place.

    Surely in this context what people need are affordable rental properties? IME homeless people aren't generally looking for a mortgage, they need a flat/studio to rent within their means (Housing Benefit).

    That in turn probably means a Housing Association property - but can Housing Associations themselves afford to build in London?

    And, in London, does the value of land or market rate for rental property mean the Council faces constraints around getting the best return for their money?

    I don't have any answers, but solutions do depend on asking the right questions.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. City, Miliband was ahead.

    It is an interesting counter-factual, though. Imagine she hadn't called the election. Would Labour MPs have managed to oust Corbyn? They stopped trying or even being especially critical until he revealed his love of snuggling Russian bears and the rise of anti-Semitism.

    Morris , if she had not called the election , there would have been a better chance that Corbyn would not be leader.

    She would be in a stronger position than now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    williamglenn said:

    Elliot said:

    Here is a good article on the importance of the Magnitsky act to containing Putin.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/vladimir-putin-kara-murza-axe-files/index.html

    Whatever happened to the financial sanctions we were exploring?

    Talking of which, look who's the most prominent foreigner at Putin's inauguration.
    https://twitter.com/Lucian_Kim/status/993422246998953984
    That defence minister could not look more stereotypically like a russian defence minister if he tried.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2018
    If the only idea to extend Labour's appeal is to replace Corbyn with a woman, then Labour have well and truly run into a brick wall. It does feel like they have squeezed the LD/Greens/Non voters as much as they can and have nowhere else to go.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,775
    You're all talking about politics.
    Let's focus on important questions.

    Question 1: are brambles carnivorous?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuzLXxbGc4c
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    Artist said:

    If the only idea to extend Labour's appeal is to replace Corbyn with a woman, then Labour have well and truly run into a brick wall. It does feel like they have squeezed the LD/Greens/Non voters as much as they can and have nowhere else to go.

    What they need, apparently, is for Andrea Leadsom to defect. She can speak as a mother, after all...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,208
    kle4 said:

    Thanks for the view from the ground in that key battle, Don, although I have to say I think you've missed the mark somewhat on this point in particular.

    His verdict that “against such a shambolic government, Labour should be doing better than this” reflects a widespread view inside and outside the party. Nonetheless I think he is wrong to argue that the current “stalemate is a result that a government at midterm can live with… A draw is not good enough for the main opposition party.”

    That view isn’t supported by the latest prediction from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus which has the Tories, with a lead over Labour of just over one per cent in polling averages falling 18 short of a Commons majority.

    I think that is a misunderstanding of why what is near enough a draw is something the government can live with. It's not because they or anyone else thinks they would be happy with such vote shares as were achieved at an actual GE. I would think it is because the Tories will hope that an effective draw at this point, including holding onto London councils under threat, presages that they will retain enough of an advantage at an actual GE. The key is his use of 'government at midterm'. Yes, the Tories don't want to be level pegging in the national vote come the next GE, but can they live with level pegging at this point of the electoral cycle? Yes.

    That doesn't mean they will be able to benefit at the next GE as they hope, but given where plenty of other government's have been at such a point, they can indeed live with what they achieved, even if they cannot rest on any laurels. Applying that directly to a potential GE scenario strikes me as analyzing the wrong thing.

    But it's not "mid-term". Only eleven months into a 5-year term, this is still the "honeymoon period".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,775
    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    viewcode said:

    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country

    Not enough well known 'good' races to choose from, because the Federation is so racist.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    kle4 said:

    Thanks for the view from the ground in that key battle, Don, although I have to say I think you've missed the mark somewhat on this point in particular.

    His verdict that “against such a shambolic govewrong thing.

    But it's not "mid-term". Only eleven months into a 5-year term, this is still the "honeymoon period".
    Well it was Rawnsley who used the term 'midterm'. Is the expression always to mean literally in the middle of a term, or can it be used more broadly to apply to anypoint between elections, or perhaps say the middle three years?

    I said 'this point in the electoral cycle', but in any case the fundamental point was that whether the Tories are right or wrong to be relieved at their performance, their relief is not predicated on thinking they will get the NEV share from these locals, and the same gap (or lack thereof) from labour - it is based on assuming (again, rightly or wrongly) that the result is an indication they will do better at the GE.

    That's why stating that they are wrong to think they can live with the result is incorrect, if based on applying the NEV share. Even if they are wrong to think they can live with it for some other reason, say because it is not really mid term, that method of deciding they are wrong is flawed, IMO.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,377
    williamglenn said:

    How long until Boris flounces?
    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/993502127489200128

    I doubt he ever will. Boris just wants it put about that he was the last true believer in the cabinet for when the inevitable 'Brexit sell-out' materializes. He won't do anything to obstruct it, and he certainly won't reverse it should he become PM, but this will bolster his image with those who matter in the party.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,775
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country

    Not enough well known 'good' races to choose from, because the Federation is so racist.
    They let the Andorians in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    edited May 2018
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country

    Not enough well known 'good' races to choose from, because the Federation is so racist.
    They let the Andorians in.
    Yeah, but you're telling me that humans are the only very populous race in the Federation which is so keen to serve in Starfleet that they make up 95% of all their crews? I call that suspicious.

    With all the new species that the Federation is keen to have join them, I wonder if they use some kind of qualified majority voting system.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Why a woman Don ?- how about the best person who wins because of their talents rather than which box you think they should fit in.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    kle4 said:

    Thanks for the view from the ground in that key battle, Don, although I have to say I think you've missed the mark somewhat on this point in particular.

    His verdict that “against such a shambolic government, Labour should be doing better than this” reflects a widespread view inside and outside the party. Nonetheless I think he is wrong to argue that the current “stalemate is a result that a government at midterm can live with… A draw is not good enough for the main opposition party.”

    That view isn’t supported by the latest prediction from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus which has the Tories, with a lead over Labour of just over one per cent in polling averages falling 18 short of a Commons majority.

    I think that is a misunderstanding of why what is near enough a draw is something the government can live with. It's not because they or anyone else thinks they would be happy with such vote shares as were achieved at an actual GE. I would think it is because the Tories will hope that an effective draw at this point, including holding onto London councils under threat, presages that they will retain enough of an advantage at an actual GE. The key is his use of 'government at midterm'. Yes, the Tories don't want to be level pegging in the national vote come the next GE, but can they live with level pegging at this point of the electoral cycle? Yes.

    That doesn't mean they will be able to benefit at the next GE as they hope, but given where plenty of other government's have been at such a point, they can indeed live with what they achieved, even if they cannot rest on any laurels. Applying that directly to a potential GE scenario strikes me as analyzing the wrong thing.

    But it's not "mid-term". Only eleven months into a 5-year term, this is still the "honeymoon period".
    No it isn't. The popularity clock does not reset just because they had a GE. Effectively we are almost 2 years into a 6 year term. The honeymoon ended long before the 2017 GE.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,971
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country

    Not enough well known 'good' races to choose from, because the Federation is so racist.
    They let the Andorians in.
    Yeah, but you're telling me that humans are the only very populous race in the Federation which is so keen to serve in Starfleet that they make up 95% of all their crews? I call that suspicious.

    With all the new species that the Federation is keen to have join them, I wonder if they use some kind of qualified majority voting system.
    If I might interject, that keen to serve in Starfleet sounds suspiciously like the argument that has been used so often in the past to explain why so few women/men apply for posts in particular industries. It usually boils down to discrimination or prejudice of some sort. Doesn't look good for humans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    viewcode said:

    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country

    Surely some Remainers would also see the EU as the Borg?

    After all, there's someone on here who keeps telling us Resistance is Futile...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,886
    edited May 2018
    Not sure if any of you have seen Star Trek: Discovery on Netflix yet, let alone enjoyed it (I did, BTW!)

    Of course in the Star Trek "Mirror Universe", we don't have an EU and a referendum about Britain leaving it.

    What we have instead is the Brexit Empire, "a fascistic culture described as oppressive, racist and xenophobic, predicated on an unconditional hatred and rejection of anything and everything "other"." Despite covering the entire continent of Europe (not just the EU27 of our universe), The Empire is the antithesis of the EU in every way.

    Heroically standing up to the Brexit Empire are Emmanuel Macron of the French Resistance, and Angela Merkel of the German Resistance, along with Ambassadors Barnier and Juncker, who collectively coordinate efforts by Resistance cells all over Europe, with the eventual aim of restoring Freedom to all the occupied nations.

    Key among the Brexit Empire personnel include Captain Michael Burnham Smithson, Admiral Anna Soubry and Commissar Nick Clegg. But who is the head honcho of the Brexit Empire in this Mirror Universe? Who might be turned on by all this oppression, racism and xenophobia in an alternate dimension?

    Easy: our very own Alastair Meeks.

    Sorry, make that - Emperor Alastair Meeks Augustus Hungaricus Centaurius, Father of the Motherland, Overlord of France, Dominus of Germany, Rex Hispania.

    Anyway, just for a bit of harmless fun - most of you probably have no idea what I mean by "mirror universe". But remember, "Context is for Kings" :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    viewcode said:

    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country

    That's not bad.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Not sure if any of you have seen Star Trek: Discovery on Netflix yet, let alone enjoyed it (I did, BTW!)

    Of course in the Star Trek "Mirror Universe", we don't have an EU and a referendum about Britain leaving it.

    What we have instead is the Brexit Empire, "a fascistic culture described as oppressive, racist and xenophobic, predicated on an unconditional hatred and rejection of anything and everything "other"." Despite covering the entire continent of Europe (not just the EU27 of our universe), The Empire is the antithesis of the EU in every way.

    Heroically standing up to the Brexit Empire are Emmanuel Macron of the French Resistance, and Angela Merkel of the German Resistance, along with Ambassadors Barnier and Juncker, who collectively coordinate efforts by Resistance cells all over Europe, with the eventual aim of restoring Freedom to all the occupied nations.

    Key among the Brexit Empire personnel include Captain Michael Burnham Smithson, Admiral Anna Soubry and Commissar Nick Clegg. But who is the head honcho of the Brexit Empire in this Mirror Universe? Who might be turned on by all this oppression, racism and xenophobia in an alternate dimension?

    Easy: our very own Alastair Meeks.

    Sorry, make that - Emperor Alastair Meeks Augustus Hungaricus Centaurius, Father of the Motherland, Overlord of France, Dominus of Germany, Rex Hispania.

    Anyway, just for a bit of harmless fun - most of you probably have no idea what I mean by "mirror universe". But remember, "Context is for Kings" :)


    I though a mirror image was the same not the opposite.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    Next year will be extremely difficult for the Conservatives. They are defending a lot of seats, and there are quite a few "third of councils" where 2015 was a pretty good year. I would expect to see both Labour and the LDs make significant gains next year.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Floater said:

    Why a woman Don ?- how about the best person who wins because of their talents rather than which box you think they should fit in.


    It's the leadership candidate with the most Labour member votes that wins - not the best person for the job. So that could be a woman.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Not sure if any of you have seen Star Trek: Discovery on Netflix yet, let alone enjoyed it (I did, BTW!)

    Of course in the Star Trek "Mirror Universe", we don't have an EU and a referendum about Britain leaving it.

    What we have instead is the Brexit Empire, "a fascistic culture described as oppressive, racist and xenophobic, predicated on an unconditional hatred and rejection of anything and everything "other"." Despite covering the entire continent of Europe (not just the EU27 of our universe), The Empire is the antithesis of the EU in every way.

    Heroically standing up to the Brexit Empire are Emmanuel Macron of the French Resistance, and Angela Merkel of the German Resistance, along with Ambassadors Barnier and Juncker, who collectively coordinate efforts by Resistance cells all over Europe, with the eventual aim of restoring Freedom to all the occupied nations.

    Key among the Brexit Empire personnel include Captain Michael Burnham Smithson, Admiral Anna Soubry and Commissar Nick Clegg. But who is the head honcho of the Brexit Empire in this Mirror Universe? Who might be turned on by all this oppression, racism and xenophobia in an alternate dimension?

    Easy: our very own Alastair Meeks.

    Sorry, make that - Emperor Alastair Meeks Augustus Hungaricus Centaurius, Father of the Motherland, Overlord of France, Dominus of Germany, Rex Hispania.

    Anyway, just for a bit of harmless fun - most of you probably have no idea what I mean by "mirror universe". But remember, "Context is for Kings" :)

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Not sure if any of you have seen Star Trek: Discovery on Netflix yet, let alone enjoyed it (I did, BTW!)

    I did, despite how 'untrekky' it felt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    AnneJGP said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Question 2: Which Star Trek race is which EU country?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country

    Not enough well known 'good' races to choose from, because the Federation is so racist.
    They let the Andorians in.
    Yeah, but you're telling me that humans are the only very populous race in the Federation which is so keen to serve in Starfleet that they make up 95% of all their crews? I call that suspicious.

    With all the new species that the Federation is keen to have join them, I wonder if they use some kind of qualified majority voting system.
    If I might interject, that keen to serve in Starfleet sounds suspiciously like the argument that has been used so often in the past to explain why so few women/men apply for posts in particular industries. It usually boils down to discrimination or prejudice of some sort. Doesn't look good for humans.
    Indeed so. They have a lot of explaining to do. Either they really do make up a massively disproportionate amount of the Federation, or for some reason other species are not joining its military wing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    And they are a month or so after the UK is due to leave the EU. Might be a lot of explaining to do on the doorstep.
    I see three likely scenarios:

    1. We haven't left the EU yet due to a last minute extension. That might reinvigorate UKIP or OneNation, or it might be seen as irrelevant as the extension was just for six weeks.

    2. We have left the EU, but the transition is just like being in the EU. Hard to know how this plays. I suspect that it won't rebound badly on the Conservative Party, so long as the direction of travel is clear.

    3. We have left the EU in a disorderly manner, and are now completely free of its clutches. But leaving in a disorderly manner is also the most likely trigger of a recession.

    I don't see anything that looks like us staying in the EU. I think 3 is by far the most damaging to the Conservative Party (and indeed, to the longer term cause of Brexit).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    This is a silly article. The Tories did win Wandsworth. There are no prizes for second.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,799
    More obvious spin from Brind. Does he think we don't remember the days when doomed governments (and even a few who turned out not to be doomed) got slaughtered at local elections?

    And he should take a look at a few Labour councils' records on affordable housing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    Sean_F said:

    This is a silly article. The Tories did win Wandsworth. There are no prizes for second.

    I don't know. Labour looked like prize idiots for saying they would sweep London.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,799
    Floater said:

    Why a woman Don ?- how about the best person who wins because of their talents rather than which box you think they should fit in.

    Or go full monty and pick a Jewish woman?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Sean_F said:

    This is a silly article. The Tories did win Wandsworth. There are no prizes for second.

    What, not even a consolation prize?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    I'd vote for satan himself if he was to give me council tax under a grand a year.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    Why a woman Don ?- how about the best person who wins because of their talents rather than which box you think they should fit in.

    Or go full monty and pick a Jewish woman?
    Yvette Cooper would be fine. She is a friend of Israel ! There are plenty of centrist friends of Palestine. Chuka is one of them. Burnham, Sadiq are also but not an MP.

    I would still consider Yvette to be one of the non-Corbynista who could be looked at as future leader. But clearly it has to be Thornberry, not a Corbynista but will be acceptable to them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd vote for satan himself if he was to give me council tax under a grand a year.

    That's crazy man, what cost your soul?!

    Now, if he promised to keep it under a grand a year for an entire council term, then I am onboard (my soul will be fine), otherwise I'm sure it'd be under the first year, well over in the rest.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    An interesting development: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/sessions-says-justice-dept-will-prosecute-every-person-who-crosses-border-unlawfully/2018/05/07/e1312b7e-5216-11e8-9c91-7dab596e8252_story.html?utm_term=.0940ba5f3f28

    The problem it identifies is a real one: there is no real penalty - beyond loss of time - for attempting to illegally cross the US border. The worst that currently happens is that you get deported. (Big deal, you try again.)

    But there is an issue here: this will put enormous pressure on the US criminal justice system, and cost an awful lot of money. If every illegal immigrant is imprisoned for a year, that's $31,000. Add in the cost of the court case, and the associated police time for filing charges, etc., then we're talking serious money, and probably concentrated on a few states.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet

    I think next year's batch of elections will be much more interesting. The Conservatives will be defending 5,000 seats including seats won when Cameron won his majority.

    Next year will be extremely difficult for the Conservatives. They are defending a lot of seats, and there are quite a few "third of councils" where 2015 was a pretty good year. I would expect to see both Labour and the LDs make significant gains next year.
    This year was not bad for Labour though they badly lost the war of expectations.
    By the way, I do not subscribe to the mid-term philosophy. As long as Brexit is dusted and settled [ say, five years after whatever happens ], the electorate will stay loyal to "their" wing with a small swing, possibly towards the soft brexit side.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    4 actual or attempted murders over the weekend.

    Trump will be happy. Guns were used.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't see anything that looks like us staying in the EU.

    That's because your alarm clock has not yet been triggered, but it will be.
    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    What with Durham winning one of the weirdest cricket matches, can Higgins pull off a comeback as well?
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't see anything that looks like us staying in the EU.

    That's because your alarm clock has not yet been triggered, but it will be.
    image
    That shows a soft, soft Brexit. I think Greg Clark's interview and May basically ignoring the War Cabinet and going straight over to the full cabinet tells the whole story. If that does not work, it will be Parliament itself.

    May's "Customs Partnership" and McDonnell's "a Customs Union" will mean the same thing.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd vote for satan himself if he was to give me council tax under a grand a year.

    I could make a really unkind remark about Jeremy Corbyn there.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    rcs1000 said:

    An interesting development: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/sessions-says-justice-dept-will-prosecute-every-person-who-crosses-border-unlawfully/2018/05/07/e1312b7e-5216-11e8-9c91-7dab596e8252_story.html?utm_term=.0940ba5f3f28

    The problem it identifies is a real one: there is no real penalty - beyond loss of time - for attempting to illegally cross the US border. The worst that currently happens is that you get deported. (Big deal, you try again.)

    But there is an issue here: this will put enormous pressure on the US criminal justice system, and cost an awful lot of money. If every illegal immigrant is imprisoned for a year, that's $31,000. Add in the cost of the court case, and the associated police time for filing charges, etc., then we're talking serious money, and probably concentrated on a few states.

    You will have to hire a lot of illegals to administer this increase in workload.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    After the reduction in the number of councillors, the loss of a thousand councillors is now effectively impossible. Next year, may be an exception.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/07/labour-mps-revive-campaign-for-progressive-alliance

    The Liberal Democrats and the Greens had an alliance in Richmond.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    AnneJGP said:

    RobD said:

    Thanks Don, although electing a woman just because she’s a woman sounds like a terrible idea.

    I agree, a terrible idea in principle and in general, but in this particular case?

    In a scenario where all parties seem devoid of up & coming leadership potential, shut your eyes & stick in a pin has a lot to recommend it. For Labour picking a woman because she's a woman may be a good way of doing that.

    For the Conservatives, going for Sajid Javid because he's ethnic minority may serve the same purpose.

    Good evening, everyone, and many thanks for the article, Don.
    Yes. The Sunday Times was not very complimentary of Javid's business dealings.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    kle4 said:

    Thanks for the view from the ground in that key battle, Don, although I have to say I think you've missed the mark somewhat on this point in particular.

    His verdict that “against such a shambolic government, Labour should be doing better than this” reflects a widespread view inside and outside the party. Nonetheless I think he is wrong to argue that the current “stalemate is a result that a government at midterm can live with… A draw is not good enough for the main opposition party.”

    That view isn’t supported by the latest prediction from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus which has the Tories, with a lead over Labour of just over one per cent in polling averages falling 18 short of a Commons majority.

    I think that is a misunderstanding of why what is near enough a draw is something the government can live with. It's not because they or anyone else thinks they would be happy with such vote shares as were achieved at an actual GE. I would think it is because the Tories will hope that an effective draw at this point, including holding onto London councils under threat, presages that they will retain enough of an advantage at an actual GE. The key is his use of 'government at midterm'. Yes, the Tories don't want to be level pegging in the national vote come the next GE, but can they live with level pegging at this point of the electoral cycle? Yes.

    That doesn't mean they will be able to benefit at the next GE as they hope, but given where plenty of other government's have been at such a point, they can indeed live with what they achieved, even if they cannot rest on any laurels. Applying that directly to a potential GE scenario strikes me as analyzing the wrong thing.

    But it's not "mid-term". Only eleven months into a 5-year term, this is still the "honeymoon period".
    Normally the governing party does reasonably well in the first local elections of a Parliamentary term.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't see anything that looks like us staying in the EU.

    That's because your alarm clock has not yet been triggered, but it will be.
    image
    OTOH, both ORB and Com Res recently found majorities in favour of Brexit.
  • CynosargesCynosarges Posts: 44
    "I hope that one day Jeremy will do the decent thing for the party he loves and make way for a woman."

    Don, given the the election of Corbyn and the subsequent strength of Momentum within Labour, I would not be surprised if this led to Diane Abbott being elected leader. Do you really think she could deliver a better result than Corbyn?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,799
    surby said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    Why a woman Don ?- how about the best person who wins because of their talents rather than which box you think they should fit in.

    Or go full monty and pick a Jewish woman?
    Yvette Cooper would be fine. She is a friend of Israel ! There are plenty of centrist friends of Palestine. Chuka is one of them. Burnham, Sadiq are also but not an MP.

    I would still consider Yvette to be one of the non-Corbynista who could be looked at as future leader. But clearly it has to be Thornberry, not a Corbynista but will be acceptable to them.
    Cooper had better work out what she wants to achieve by being in politics, then, because it wasn't at all apparent the last time she stood.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't see anything that looks like us staying in the EU.

    That's because your alarm clock has not yet been triggered, but it will be.
    image
    OTOH, both ORB and Com Res recently found majorities in favour of Brexit.
    Ah but those are clearly polls that cannot be trusted. As far as William is concerned only those polls which show us opposed to Brexit should be considered as worthy of note.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,257
    Cynosarges said:

    "I hope that one day Jeremy will do the decent thing for the party he loves and make way for a woman."

    Don, given the the election of Corbyn and the subsequent strength of Momentum within Labour, I would not be surprised if this led to Diane Abbott being elected leader. Do you really think she could deliver a better result than Corbyn?

    Her mathematical skills might be useful in explaining how a party 56 seats behind has won a majority.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't see anything that looks like us staying in the EU.

    That's because your alarm clock has not yet been triggered, but it will be.
    image
    OTOH, both ORB and Com Res recently found majorities in favour of Brexit.
    Com Res - http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Daily-Mirror_January-2018-poll_EURef-1.pdf
    Remain: 55%
    Leave: 45%

    The ORB Brexit trackers only show what a difficult task the government has to satisfy Brexit supporters.

    https://www.orb-international.com/2018/04/10/orb-monthly-brexit-tracker-april-2018/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,886
    ydoethur said:

    Cynosarges said:

    "I hope that one day Jeremy will do the decent thing for the party he loves and make way for a woman."

    Don, given the the election of Corbyn and the subsequent strength of Momentum within Labour, I would not be surprised if this led to Diane Abbott being elected leader. Do you really think she could deliver a better result than Corbyn?

    Her mathematical skills might be useful in explaining how a party 56 seats behind has won a majority.
    Easy :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
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