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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay should make Nicky Morgan HomeSec which could make the pas

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    Cyclefree said:


    Abuse of women is morally bad and is also legally bad, rightly in my view. I do not see a good reason for legalising a form of abuse of women (which is what prostitution in reality is) because ..... well ..... it always happens and always will.

    Sorry, have to disagree here. Abuse of women and prostitution are two different things. There is an overlap, but they are NOT the same. Prostitution has an intersection with, but is not a subset of abuse.
    The same applies to drug use and criminality in my opinion.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    BTW Congratulations to TSE.

    Finally got a betting tip right.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163

    will you be resigning for misleading us?
    No. I've misled you before and I'll no doubt mislead you again (I'll try not to though).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Sajid Javid's appointment a shrewd choice by May for Home Secretary and his John Major like rise to such a senior post now makes him a prime candidate to be next Tory leader
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    GIN1138 said:

    I thought after the Hague and IDS experience the Tories had determined never to have another bald leader? :D
    Churchill was bald
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,421

    Why no new thread on who to back as new Culture Secretary?

    I think Boy George should be Culture Club Secretary
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Cyclefree said:

    I think that you are naive in thinking that interviews of women working in brothels will root out abuse and coercion. Or, indeed, that men will only go to legal establishments.
    On the contrary, I think signs of abuse in adults are often very visible to people sufficiently resourced. Legal brothel workers could also have regular case workers they form relationships with that regularly inundate then with guidance on how to leave the trade.

    Equally, I think the vast majority of punters would use the legal trade, particularly if you ramped up punishments for going to non-sanctioned brothels.

    In both cases compliance would never be 100% but it would be orders of magnitude better than the current system where the authorities can not even identify the women involved.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163

    Why no new thread on who to back as new Culture Secretary?

    is there a market?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801
    HYUFD said:

    Churchill was bald
    That's going back a long way... ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    He sends his children to private schools. He has a taste for Havana cigars. In common with many of Thatcher’s children of his Tory generation, he is as dry as dust on economic issues and well to the right on most other subjects.

    This makes his a disorientating story for many on the left because it confounds their expectations of how someone from that background ought to think and where they should end up. Rather than acknowledge that there is any cause for celebration in a self-made Asian man with a working-class background reaching the cabinet, Labour MPs have jeered at him for being rich and not being a woman.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/13/rise-of-sajid-javid-social-mobility-immigration-coalition-cabinet-david-cameron-tories
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    Cyclefree said:

    I think that you are naive in thinking that interviews of women working in brothels will root out abuse and coercion. Or, indeed, that men will only go to legal establishments.
    It'd help though.
  • is there a market?
    Is there a vacancy ?

    What’s happened to Matt Hancock ?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Cyclefree said:

    Again, a comparison of apples & oranges. Adultery is consensual.

    And we do legalise attitudes by legalising acts. See the whole history of gay rights in this country which is a pretty good example of an initial legalisation of previously criminal acts leading, thankfully, over time to a very different and better attitude to homosexuality.

    Abuse of women is morally bad and is also legally bad, rightly in my view. I do not see a good reason for legalising a form of abuse of women (which is what prostitution in reality is) because ..... well ..... it always happens and always will.
    Prostitution is usually consensual. Gay rights became acceptable because of the force of logical argument that it didn't have negative effects. Prostitution is not like that. More equivalent to smoking.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    What is it with the legs akimbo thing?

    https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/990901350551703552
  • A trend started by George and followed by others including Mrs May.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    A trend started by George and followed by others including Mrs May.
    It looks completely ridiculous.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    Churchill was bald
    Churchill was Prime Minister but not party leader -- not till Chamberlain died.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,534
    You're so vain you probably think this headline's about you.
    https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/990866357309837312
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    French Presidential aircraft a lot more bling than the UK part time tanker....

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/990903340514111489
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    The stance best taken avoid Home Office banana skins.....
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Glad to see she has chosen Javid - I hoped that she’d do that last night, so hopefully he can deal with the problem. I agree with Nick Palmer’s earlier post that Javid has shown emotional intelligence on a range of important issues, certainly in a way that has struck me.

    I’m intrigued by the suggestion earlier upthread that ‘most normal people’ think Windrush is being ‘exaggerated’ as I’ve seen no evidence of that. Last time polling was done on the issue most people supported Windrush generation by quite large majorities (like 78%).

    I’m also bemused as why anyone is shocked that Corbyn supporters are already critical of Javid. They are the opposition, of course they will look for things to criticise him on. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see ‘nasty tweets’ aimed at him (unfortunately), the tweets actually posted here are not really that ‘nasty.’ I’m also unsure of the suggestion that people will be swayed against Labour by nasty tweets from Corbynistas toward Javid - I can’t see voters voting on what randoms say on Twitter as opposed to the immediate issues that affect their life. There are lots of nasty tweets aimed at Diane Abbott, but I don’t think many on here think those sway anyone to Labour.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,018
    Elliot said:

    Prostitution is usually consensual...
    Is it ?
  • A trend started by George and followed by others including Mrs May.
    It started in Blackadder 3
  • HYUFD said:

    Sajid Javid's appointment a shrewd choice by May for Home Secretary and his John Major like rise to such a senior post now makes him a prime candidate to be next Tory leader

    So a Remainer might succeed May, told you that was a very strong possibility.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    So a Remainer might succeed May, told you that was a very strong possibility.
    Possibly though Javid was I think a closet Leaver, he was always very Eurosceptic but backed Remain out of Cabinet collective responsibility
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    He sends his children to private schools. He has a taste for Havana cigars. In common with many of Thatcher’s children of his Tory generation, he is as dry as dust on economic issues and well to the right on most other subjects.

    This makes his a disorientating story for many on the left because it confounds their expectations of how someone from that background ought to think and where they should end up. Rather than acknowledge that there is any cause for celebration in a self-made Asian man with a working-class background reaching the cabinet, Labour MPs have jeered at him for being rich and not being a woman.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/13/rise-of-sajid-javid-social-mobility-immigration-coalition-cabinet-david-cameron-tories

    The left pretty much universally denies that Mrs Thatcher was a woman, for the purposes of debates about feminism, so believing that Mr Jarvis is not really Asian should be a doddle.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    A trend started by George and followed by others including Mrs May.
    Has no one told them they look ridiculous? Its like he's preparing to sprint for the exit - or the opening of the Sales at M&S.....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Is there a vacancy ?

    What’s happened to Matt Hancock ?
    Good point. So DCMS and DCLG are different.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    So a Remainer might succeed May, told you that was a very strong possibility.
    Elsewhere it's HS don't get to be PM

    make your mind up
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    Sajid Javid's appointment a shrewd choice by May for Home Secretary and his John Major like rise to such a senior post now makes him a prime candidate to be next Tory leader

    What has he going for him ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Has no one told them they look ridiculous? Its like he's preparing to sprint for the exit - or the opening of the Sales at M&S.....
    he looks like he has just followed through
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Elliot said:

    Prostitution is usually consensual.

    I don't think that's true. I'd say the vast majority of prostitution in the UK is non-consensual and dependent on sex trafficking from SE Asia and Eastern Europe.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    Every time a Tory minister does that ridiculous pose another thousand votes are added to Corbyn's pile.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    Pulpstar said:

    Every time a Tory minister does that ridiculous pose another thousand votes are added to Corbyn's pile.
    Pile - in the plural - looks the operative word.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Anyways what is the betting for Spurs finishing outside the top four in the premier league ?
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    The leaks , at various intervals, and always at critical moments, must have come from someone / someplace who knew "everything".

    It also cleverly distracted from the policy to administration and competence.

    It has to be No.10. It is not in the interest of Brexit supporters to get rid of Rudd.
  • Elsewhere it's HS don't get to be PM

    make your mind up
    He's a good trading bet.

    Always nice when a working class kid of Pakistani heritage does good.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    HYUFD said:

    Churchill was bald
    Churchill doesn't count as an exception to the rule that 'bald men don't win' because he was up against Attlee, so the public weren't given a choice (though when Attlee was up against Baldwin or Eden, he lost).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    surby said:

    What has he going for him ?
    Ex officio the Home Secretary is a leading contender -- especially if, as expected, TM hands over in office so that the new leader is immediately Prime Minister. Forget the fantasies about JRM or Rory or Kwasi or any other rising star who could take over as Leader of the Opposition and look at the Cabinet and in particular the great offices of state.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Churchill doesn't count as an exception to the rule that 'bald men don't win' because he was up against Attlee, so the public weren't given a choice (though when Attlee was up against Baldwin or Eden, he lost).
    IDS never lost.

    John Howard in Australia won 4 elections despite his baldness, all against those with a full head of hair
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,534
    It's slightly unfair to capture a still frame. If you saw a video it would be clear he was just doing some aerobics to warm up for the speech.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Reliable statistics about prostitution are almost impossible to come by (unsurprisingly). That leads to an innate bias towards what's talked about, whether that be high class hookers, crack junkies selling themselves or non-consensual sex trafficking. All of these exist, but their proportions are hard to establish.

    The internet has made possible a much more informal form of prostitution, akin to Airbnb, with people dipping in and out according to need/desire/taste. I suspect, since few of us imagine friends and acquaintances moonlighting in this way, that this is hugely underestimated. But what do I know? I don't have statistics either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    surby said:

    What has he going for him ?
    He has a higher approval rating with Yougov than May, Hunt, Gove, Boris and Mogg
  • Yorkcity said:

    Anyways what is the betting for Spurs finishing outside the top four in the premier league ?

    I'm there tonight to find out.... God I hope my bets don't come in
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. HYUFD, bad history of bald chaps doing well in the UK, though.

    Mind you, I might just laugh my head off watching Labour react to a Conservative Prime Minister of Pakistani descent. If it happens.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    He's a good trading bet.

    Always nice when a working class kid of Pakistani heritage does good.
    Or ex-investment banker replaces ex-investment banker at the Home Office.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    Nigelb said:

    Is it ?
    This is when the absence of PB's foremost prostitute authority is most keenly felt.
  • Mr. HYUFD, bad history of bald chaps doing well in the UK, though.

    Mind you, I might just laugh my head off watching Labour react to a Conservative Prime Minister of Pakistani descent. If it happens.

    Is why I'm a Tory.

    We don't need exclusive shortlists.
  • Right I'm off to have lunch and do some shoe shopping with my winnings.

    I shall post pictures of the Amber Rudd/Sajid Javid shoes later.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Cyclefree said:

    legal and, therefore, as somehow acceptable

    This is where you're going wrong. Not all bad things should be banned by the government.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Churchill doesn't count as an exception to the rule that 'bald men don't win' because he was up against Attlee, so the public weren't given a choice (though when Attlee was up against Baldwin or Eden, he lost).
    Attlee beat Churchill in 1945 and 1950. In 1951, Attlee's Labour won the popular vote but lost the election, so I'm not sure how to count that one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,534

    Right I'm off to have lunch and do some shoe shopping with my winnings.

    I shall post pictures of the Amber Rudd/Sajid Javid shoes later.

    Hopefully while posing in the Sajid stance?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Tories will be pretty happy with that I would have thought
  • Ipsos MORI

    Labour and the Conservatives are virtually level pegging in the poll, which has the parties standing at Tories 41 per cent (-2), Labour 40 (-2), Liberal Democrats 10 (+4), and the Greens and Ukip on two each.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-ratings-dip-to-lowest-level-since-before-last-general-election-a3827051.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Unlike George to pass on an opportunity to take a pop at Mrs May:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/990911105592684545
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Ipsos MORI

    Labour and the Conservatives are virtually level pegging in the poll, which has the parties standing at Tories 41 per cent (-2), Labour 40 (-2), Liberal Democrats 10 (+4), and the Greens and Ukip on two each.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-ratings-dip-to-lowest-level-since-before-last-general-election-a3827051.html

    The Cablegasm takes off!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Right I'm off to have lunch and do some shoe shopping with my winnings.

    I shall post pictures of the Amber Rudd/Sajid Javid shoes later.

    Amber Rudd/Sajid Javid wellingtons for this weather.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I'm there tonight to find out.... God I hope my bets don't come in
    Hope you have a good evening and Spurs settle some nerves.
    I was hoping they could win the fa cup, but top four is a must now.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2018
    Thanks for posting. So it’s still all square (which was my inclination last week), with the trend of Corbyn’s poor ratings continuing. Question is, will Labour voters overlook their misgivings about Corbyn? Depends on how badly they want the Tories out by 2022.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    surby said:

    The leaks , at various intervals, and always at critical moments, must have come from someone / someplace who knew "everything".

    It also cleverly distracted from the policy to administration and competence.

    It has to be No.10. It is not in the interest of Brexit supporters to get rid of Rudd.

    Whoever it was, they certainly lucked out with Rudd pointlessly lying to parliament
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Unlike George to pass on an opportunity to take a pop at Mrs May:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/990911105592684545

    Ind should get fired if that is true.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    The Cablegasm takes off!
    all those kippers going back to the LDs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited April 2018
    For comparison in the 2014 Local Elections when the wards up on Thursday were last contested Labour got 31% the Tories got 29%, UKIP got 17% and the LDs got 13%
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    edited April 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Sorry, have to disagree here. Abuse of women and prostitution are two different things. There is an overlap, but they are NOT the same. Prostitution has an intersection with, but is not a subset of abuse.
    The same applies to drug use and criminality in my opinion.
    usual bollox, if it is being sold freely by consent how can it be abuse
    PS: completely different if being forced to do it by someone
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Though I’d be shocked if the LDs got 10% at a GE under Cable.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    So a Remainer might succeed May, told you that was a very strong possibility.
    ex-Remainer.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    He has a higher approval rating with Yougov than May, Hunt, Gove, Boris and Mogg
    Partly because no one knows him.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Mr. Glenn, that's true. Likewise with Miliband eating the sarnie (although that was his own team's idea, which makes it even odder). Film anyone eating a sarnie and you could pick a number of stills that look awful.

    Mr. Eagles, indeed, you've achieved great things without any need for a 'dressed like a colourblind parrot' shortlist.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Apparently Trump supporters are now saying the UK is facing shariah law, now we have a Home Secretary of Muslim background.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009

    Hopefully while posing in the Sajid stance?
    What an absolute plonker he looked like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited April 2018
    surby said:

    Partly because no one knows him.
    No one knew John Major in 1990 and he won a historic 4th term for the Tories in 1992
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    MaxPB said:

    I'm still very annoyed that Kwasi isn't getting a look in. He needs a role in the government.

    Why should he ? He is articulate and possibly competent. Not much demand for such a bloke.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,380
    malcolmg said:

    usual bollox, if it is being sold freely by consent how can it be abuse
    PS: completely different if being forced to do it by someone
    Prostitution can be consensual, or it can be abusive. But, I don't believe for one moment that you can ever succeed in banning it. Prostitution is illegal everywhere in the US except Nevada, but no one would suggest it doesn't take place.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Elliot said:

    Apparently Trump supporters are now saying the UK is facing shariah law, now we have a Home Secretary of Muslim background.

    They've been saying that for since Khan became London mayor. They are as nutcase as the Corbyn mob, perhaps even more so.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TGOHF said:

    ex-Remainer.
    Remainers who accept the result are pretty obviously the centre ground within the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and very close to the centre ground of the country too).

    I'd suggest the centre ground amongst the Tory membership is more like "Leave, but more in sorrow than anger".
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I think all Tories are happy that a Corbyn led Labour party is on 40%.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2018
    Elliot said:

    Apparently Trump supporters are now saying the UK is facing shariah law, now we have a Home Secretary of Muslim background.

    See their reaction to the Alfie Evans case as well.
    Yorkcity said:

    I think all Tories are happy that a Corbyn led Labour party is on 40%.
    Was thinking this as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,534
    Elliot said:

    Apparently Trump supporters are now saying the UK is facing shariah law, now we have a Home Secretary of Muslim background.

    Trump supporters from Saint Petersburg, probably.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,264
    I always view that as a symbol of trying to ride two diverging horses.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Javid, interesting choice - his task is to move on before Brexit hits.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    Unlike George to pass on an opportunity to take a pop at Mrs May:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/990911105592684545

    I expect Rudd was close to Osborne, epecially as a follow remainer.

    It is a scandal, and the Windrush stuff is more important, but it does seem just a matter of poor communication and confusion within the HO, rather than anything fundamentally corrupt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,018

    This is when the absence of PB's foremost prostitute authority is most keenly felt.
    It has occurred to me not infrequently that many (most ?) of us have only second hand knowledge of subjects we pontificate on. This would seem to be one of them.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    The Cablegasm takes off!
    LDs are higher profile atm because of local-election campaigning. I expect them to do well on Thursday.

    Longer term, I really can't predict what the post-Brexit political landscape will be like. Part of me thinks that it won't affect most people very much (well, at least not in the sudden, harmful ways that a few people will be affected), so the Corbyn effect will continue to squeeze the LibDems. But there's also the distinct possibility that they will do a "reverse Ukip" and take a lot of votes from Labour and the Tories at the next election.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,607

    This is where you're going wrong. Not all bad things should be banned by the government.
    You have it the wrong way round. It is those arguing for prostitution to be legalised who need to make the case for this. Not those who think it a bad thing and not to be encouraged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,018
    MattW said:

    I always view that as a symbol of trying to ride two diverging horses.

    It's definitely a stance that would be strong and stable only if practiced by a tripod...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    News from Italy: Five Star Movement are calling for new elections in June if talks fail.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Cyclefree said:

    You have it the wrong way round. It is those arguing for prostitution to be legalised who need to make the case for this. Not those who think it a bad thing and not to be encouraged.
    Why? Aren't things legal by default?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    Has any HS ever come from outside the cabinet while the party is in government? I can't think of an example, or certainly not a recent one. Leon Brittan would be closest, as Chief Secretary to the Treasury before his appointment.

    The only one May might stretch a point for is Brokenshire, unless she wants to really confuse everyone by offering it to Greening.

    Edit - it's also interesting to note that for all the flak he gets on here, Williamson's constituents think very highly of him and won't hear a word said against him.
    Roy Jenkins was not in the Cabinet until appointed Home Secretary by Harold Wilson at the end of 1965. Prior to that he had been Minister of Aviation.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,607
    Elliot said:

    Prostitution is usually consensual.
    Hmm ..... that's what men using prostitutes like to think. They turn a blind eye or prefer not to inquire into what the unpleasant and brutal reality is.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,607
    MattW said:

    I always view that as a symbol of trying to ride two diverging horses.


    Whatever it is they look stupid, like a small child who's just learned to walk but has forgotten what to do next in mid-step.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Cyclefree said:

    You have it the wrong way round. It is those arguing for prostitution to be legalised who need to make the case for this. Not those who think it a bad thing and not to be encouraged.
    You think all bad things should be illegal by default, without needing evidence that banning it will help???
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited April 2018
    Nigelb said:

    It has occurred to me not infrequently that many (most ?) of us have only second hand knowledge of subjects we pontificate on. This would seem to be one of them.
    It's one where few are going to admit to any first hand knowledge on either side of the transaction.

    Anyway, prostitution itself is legal. There are a range of activities closely connected with prostitution that are illegal. As it happens, I think English law strikes a pretty good balance in this area.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,167
    What's Javid's view on ID cards?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    HYUFD said:

    IDS never lost.

    John Howard in Australia won 4 elections despite his baldness, all against those with a full head of hair
    Failing to get to the starting line because your own party dumps you counts as a loss.

    There are exceptions, as with Howard, but they're rare. I did an article on this 9 years ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/01/do-bald-guys-always-lose/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Dadge said:

    LDs are higher profile atm because of local-election campaigning. I expect them to do well on Thursday.

    Longer term, I really can't predict what the post-Brexit political landscape will be like. Part of me thinks that it won't affect most people very much (well, at least not in the sudden, harmful ways that a few people will be affected), so the Corbyn effect will continue to squeeze the LibDems. But there's also the distinct possibility that they will do a "reverse Ukip" and take a lot of votes from Labour and the Tories at the next election.
    Where the 17% who voted UKIP in 2014 goes will be key on Thursday
This discussion has been closed.