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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,562
edited April 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

William Hill have a market on whether there will be a second EU in/out referendum before the 1st of January 2019, I’m backing the No side.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,057
    second referendum!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    I had a bet on Perez to win. At 401.

    .......
    .......

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,677
    Wot a race.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Same market on Betfair pays 6% return
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.125350912
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I had a bet on Perez to win. At 401.

    .......
    .......

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Was the 401 each way?

    Hope you were watching that race with your notepad?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    You can just about get that on a deposit account, with a govt guarantee against insolvency risk.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    Same market on Betfair pays 6% return
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.125350912

    Sounds more like it, but your link goes to a 404.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,133
    In terms of the logistics, everything would change if a senior Leaver came out against Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Mr. Sandpit, yes.

    If he'd been one place higher I'd've had a three figure* win.

    *I appreciate others here play with three figure stakes, but I don't, and I had especially small stakes on the Force India/Haas bets.

    I'd backed the Haas chaps for podiums as well but didn't do that for the Force India.

    I did finish ahead overall, thanks to backing one of your tips and also the intra-team shenanigans late on. But to get so close, again, with a long odds bet and not quite get there is a bit frustrating.

    Exciting end to the race, though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,065
    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Same market on Betfair pays 6% return
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.125350912

    Sounds more like it, but your link goes to a 404.
    Loads for me. Find it under Politics > UK-Brexit > EU referendum before 2019
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,192
    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    Stark_Dawning said:

    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.

    Except this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/28/brexit-not-a-done-deal-battle-to-stay-in-eu-second-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Reporting on the behind-the-scenes planning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    F1: writing up the post-race ramble but I may well forget little bits and pieces as quite a lot happened.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.

    Indeed.

    There is to be a vote, i think next week, to effectively stop the 'No Deal' option which the hardest Brexiteers secretly long for as that means WTO and no arrangements whatsoever.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: writing up the post-race ramble but I may well forget little bits and pieces as quite a lot happened.

    Anthony Davidson on Sky is talking about differential front end grip!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    edited April 2018
    Just remembered the Raikkonen/Ocon incident is under investigation. A 10s time penalty would cause Mr. Sandpit's tip to become a loser, but my tip on Perez to become a winner.

    For what it's worth, I think they'll just have no further action. Giving a time penalty in such circumstances would be very controversial and probably unfair (the matter should've been settled during the race and I have no idea why it wasn't).

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, and yet I offer my expertise with no need for a subscription!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,354
    Ex-Commons Speaker Lord Martin dies aged 72

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43941759
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Just remembered the Raikkonen/Ocon incident is under investigation. A 10s time penalty would cause Mr. Sandpit's tip to become a loser, but my tip on Perez to become a winner.

    For what it's worth, I think they'll just have no further action. Giving a time penalty in such circumstances would be very controversial and probably unfair (the matter should've been settled during the race and I have no idea why it wasn't).

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, and yet I offer my expertise with no need for a subscription!

    Sadly my Raikkonen tip was for a win only at 22 on Betfair.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,133
    https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1505983/secretary-mattis-hosts-an-honor-cordom-welcoming-poland-defense-minister-marius/

    Mattis says the US is ready to discuss withdrawal from the Korean peninsula.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,065
    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.

    Indeed.

    There is to be a vote, i think next week, to effectively stop the 'No Deal' option which the hardest Brexiteers secretly long for as that means WTO and no arrangements whatsoever.
    If however, there were no deal, Brexit would not stop.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Mr. Sandpit, too late, I already wrote the bit giving you credit for a 26 each way tip ;) [And that was the bet I made].

    If it makes you feel better, in the past I've had people misunderstand my top 3 in qualifying tips before to make money on people getting a podium.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.

    Indeed.

    There is to be a vote, i think next week, to effectively stop the 'No Deal' option which the hardest Brexiteers secretly long for as that means WTO and no arrangements whatsoever.
    If however, there were no deal, Brexit would not stop.
    I suspect one Remain game plan may be to try and steer us into a EEA type arrangement and then see where we are in 2020s when demographics will have done their work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    williamglenn said:

    https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1505983/secretary-mattis-hosts-an-honor-cordom-welcoming-poland-defense-minister-marius/

    Mattis says the US is ready to discuss withdrawal from the Korean peninsula.

    Now we see why the Chinese have twisted Kim's up his back...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    rottenborough said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.

    Except this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/28/brexit-not-a-done-deal-battle-to-stay-in-eu-second-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Reporting on the behind-the-scenes planning.
    Isn't that just reporting on pressure groups that want a second referendum, rather than actual behind the scenes preparations for one?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, too late, I already wrote the bit giving you credit for a 26 each way tip ;) [And that was the bet I made].

    If it makes you feel better, in the past I've had people misunderstand my top 3 in qualifying tips before to make money on people getting a podium.

    Okay I’ll take the credit then. ;)

    Just working out my spreadsheet now, I think Grosjean binning it behind the safety car turned my race from green to red.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,540
    Reading yesterday’s Times. Page 11 has a half page article about the main division of Modern Britain. The article quotes YouGov research that “people who like pineapple on their pizza are more likely to be right-leaning in their politics”.

    There was no citation of the research, sample size or sample period. Very shoddy I thought
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2018
    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited April 2018
    Provisional F1 spreadsheet. Lots of stewards’ enquiries ongoing.

    Safety car 1.25. £20 £25
    Class U15.5 1.75. £10 £17.5
    1st lap LAY SV 1.37 £10 £0
    Raikkonen win 22 £5 £0
    Hartley pts 7 £5 £0
    Gasly pts 7 £5 £0
    Grosjean pts 5 £10 £0
    TOTAL £65 £42.50 (£22,50)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    edited April 2018
    Mr. Sandpit, my sympathies on Grosjean.

    If Raikkonen gets any kind of time penalty, the Perez bet comes off. Tiny sum, but it'd be a 401 each way (effectively 133 or so) winner. However, I really don't think it'll happen.

    Congrats on Hartley. I wonder what odds Leclerc was. I know McLaren were 5 for another double points finish.

    Edited extra bit: just seen this from the BBC livefeed: "Perez has been summoned to the stewards about alleged illegal DRS use. So watch this space."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,354
    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    This is faintly ridiculous:
    https://twitter.com/LukeSmithF1/status/990608619585638400

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,065
    edited April 2018
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    At the time, I was told that it came down to very bad targeting by the Conservatives. The boundaries changed in 2002, and they failed to out which were the new marginal seats.

    Edit: it's not all uncommon for a party to come second in votes, but first in seats in a borough.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited April 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, my sympathies on Grosjean.

    If Raikkonen gets any kind of time penalty, the Perez bet comes off. Tiny sum, but it'd be a 401 each way (effectively 133 or so) winner. However, I really don't think it'll happen.

    Congrats on Hartley. I wonder what odds Leclerc was. I know McLaren were 5 for another double points finish.

    Edited extra bit: just seen this from the BBC livefeed: "Perez has been summoned to the stewards about alleged illegal DRS use. So watch this space."

    Ooh, I just realised Hartley came home 10th - so I’m actually £12.50 (a stake and a quarter) up if the final result looks anything like the provisional one. :)

    A 5s penalty for Perez will demote him to 6th, behind Vettel, Saint and Leclerc who will all move up
    https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2018/races/982/azerbaijan/race-result.html
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
    Heath was MP for Bexley.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095
    edited April 2018
    Stark_Dawning said:

    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.

    I don't know what country you are living in where remainers have been left cowed and broken. People, softer leavers and remainers, have been hammering home that the idea the only true brexit is hard brexit is a nonsense from the beginning, and parliamentarians and the commentariat have been making the case for softer brexits or no brexit continuously.

    And have indeed faced verbal attack - why would they not? As fewer people than should have knew from the start, the vagueness of the referendum question meant that the battle for the type of brexit was inevitable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095
    ExiledInScotland said:

    Reading yesterday’s Times. Page 11 has a half page article about the main division of Modern Britain. The article quotes YouGov research that “people who like pineapple on their pizza are more likely to be right-leaning in their politics”.

    There was no citation of the research, sample size or sample period. Very shoddy I thought

    Perhaps so, but it makes me more inclined to the left leaning nonetheless.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited April 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Yes, the penalty he served during the race was for overtaking before the line at a restart, the new investigation is for DRS misdemeanours. Also Magnussen and Stroll under same investigation.

    It’s gonna be late before bets get settled here!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,057
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    what sort of uni can't (not won't) expel students for drug use?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,057
    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Yes, the penalty he served during the race was for overtaking before the line at a restart, the new investigation is for DRS misdemeanours. Also Magnussen and Stroll under same investigation.

    It’s gonna be late before bets get settled here!
    F1 is a high speed traffic jam, pursued by lawyers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    F1: post-race race ramble:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2018.html

    Staggering that Red Bull has a 50% DNF rate. Haas have thrown away almost as many points. And Bottas should be top of the drivers' race.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Yes, the penalty he served during the race was for overtaking before the line at a restart, the new investigation is for DRS misdemeanours. Also Magnussen and Stroll under same investigation.

    It’s gonna be late before bets get settled here!
    F1 is a high speed traffic jam, pursued by lawyers.
    Today’s event was a cross between the Wacky Races and a very expensive version of one of those banger Demolition Derbys around the streets of Baku. :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,354
    edited April 2018
    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    Surely that should already be a given as a wider punishment for committing any crime on campus.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,354
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    what sort of uni can't (not won't) expel students for drug use?
    The same ones that don't expel those who get locked up for rioting and swing from the cenotaph?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
    Heath was MP for Bexley.
    He was indeed, though he might not have been given that he may well not have won in 1950 if a Communist candidate hadn't taken slightly more votes than his majority. That may well have been the biggest effect the Communists ever had on British politics.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Man U versus Arsenal

    This is the youngest Arsenal starting eleven (average age 24y 67d) in a Premier League game since August 2011.

    Don't they know you can never win anything with kids?
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    Surely that should already be a given as a wider punishment for committing any crime on campus.
    Bang goes the Bullingdon...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,147
    Recidivist said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
    Heath was MP for Bexley.
    He was indeed, though he might not have been given that he may well not have won in 1950 if a Communist candidate hadn't taken slightly more votes than his majority. That may well have been the biggest effect the Communists ever had on British politics.
    Cue the 'EUSSR' meme? :smile:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,147
    SandyRentool said:

    On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...

    That sir is a shrewd observation.

    Have you already done so? If not, may I suggest that the shrewdness of the observation was not matched by your action in making it public...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited April 2018
    Does that say 'Referendum has to take PLEASE before 1/1/19'? Tut tut WH...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,254
    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,677
    SandyRentool said:

    On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...

    The 1975 referendum was about the European Community

    The 2016 referendum was about the European Union
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,095
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    She's toast.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,091
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: post-race race ramble:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2018.html

    Staggering that Red Bull has a 50% DNF rate. Haas have thrown away almost as many points. And Bottas should be top of the drivers' race.

    Good and bad fortune is part of the game, Mr.D.
    Remember Hamilton lost a nailed on win last year as his headrest was insuffieciently nailed on...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,091
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Which would be rather more than a 5s penalty.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/TripeUK/status/990184314569744386
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TripeUK/status/990184314569744386

    :lol:

    "Rudd remains perplexed by increase in salary in July 2016"

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...

    The 1975 referendum was about the European Community

    The 2016 referendum was about the European Union
    You've just saved me my life savings.

    Thank goodness for lawyers!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,129
    Is it time for #SaveAmber ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    SandyRentool said:

    Is it time for #SaveAmber ?

    I thought Labour MP, John Woodock had started that three days ago! :smiley:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,737
    SandyRentool said:

    Is it time for #SaveAmber ?

    Time for the Guardian to pipe down for a couple of hours !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Mr. Divvie, damn it, they could've waited until 12.01pm on Tuesday. Inconsiderate of them, if you ask me.

    Mr. B, that's true. As for Perez, apparently there's a precedent for no serious penalty and it didn't make any difference.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,192
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    So unless May is going with the Ruddian defence of "I don't read letters addressed to me by my subordinates" that means May has known about these targets as well.

    Any statements we can get to the contrary from May?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Home Secretary is so securely wedged in her job, it’s going to take liberal application of lubricant to extract her. Yes, we’re going to need Amber grease.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,663
    Re Rudd, this is dancing on the head of a pin stuff.

    Is (paraphrasing slightly) "we believe it is possible to increase the level of forced deportations by 10% over the next few years", an ambition or a target?

    Is it a throwaway line indicating what she believes is possible, or is it a target against which she should be judged?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,442
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
    I can't see that. They have to know that if Rudd goes then May is next in the firing line and right now the only thing stopping Rudd from blowing this all wide open is the fact she is still in her job. Remember that polling. No one blames Rudd for the original debacle. If she goes May is exposed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,737
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Rudd, this is dancing on the head of a pin stuff.

    Is (paraphrasing slightly) "we believe it is possible to increase the level of forced deportations by 10% over the next few years", an ambition or a target?

    Is it a throwaway line indicating what she believes is possible, or is it a target against which she should be judged?

    An ambition.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Alistair said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    So unless May is going with the Ruddian defence of "I don't read letters addressed to me by my subordinates" that means May has known about these targets as well.

    Any statements we can get to the contrary from May?
    " I know nothing "
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,677

    NEW THREAD

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,192
    Alistair said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    So unless May is going with the Ruddian defence of "I don't read letters addressed to me by my subordinates" that means May has known about these targets as well.

    Any statements we can get to the contrary from May?
    Theresa should be safe. No Tory will wish to imperil Brexit or usher in PM Jeremy simply over an immigration spat. Once Amber is forced out everyone will be urged to 'move on'.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,065
    kle4 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    She's toast.
    Not unless the PM stops supporting her.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,540
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Home Secretary is so securely wedged in her job, it’s going to take liberal application of lubricant to extract her. Yes, we’re going to need Amber grease.

    Bravo. Whale done
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Speaking of 2018 events, Betway have an interesting market on the UK Box Office #1 this year. The top two are:

    Avengers: Infinity War - 8/11
    Star Wars: Han Solo Prequel - 11/4

    Tbh, I rather like Solo for the #1 spot at those odds. Star Wars consistently beats Marvel in the UK. Having said which, I think Infinity War is a particularly strong Marvel film and Solo not quite as strong a Star Wars draw.

    So the ~1/5.5 which you can get by combining them was my bet. No way anything else beats both of them.

    https://sports.betway.com/en/sports/evt/1893191
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,065
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
    I can't see that. They have to know that if Rudd goes then May is next in the firing line and right now the only thing stopping Rudd from blowing this all wide open is the fact she is still in her job. Remember that polling. No one blames Rudd for the original debacle. If she goes May is exposed.
    What's interesting is how few people blame May, as well. Even among labour and Lib Dems, fewer than 50% blame either May or Rudd.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Betway also have a brilliant market on whether an EU member will win Eurovision, 5/6 either way. Can't decide which is value, leaning to 'No' but it's a great idea for a market - bravo Betway!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,153
    Off-topic:

    Unless I'm being daft (perrfectly possible), then Blue Origin are about to launch their suborbital rocket for the eight time. Currently at hold at t-1.58.

    You can watch live at https://www.blueorigin.com/#youtubeZUV53Nn3PhA
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Surely a smokin' hot gun..

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/990622098132537345

    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
    I can't see that. They have to know that if Rudd goes then May is next in the firing line and right now the only thing stopping Rudd from blowing this all wide open is the fact she is still in her job. Remember that polling. No one blames Rudd for the original debacle. If she goes May is exposed.
    What's interesting is how few people blame May, as well. Even among labour and Lib Dems, fewer than 50% blame either May or Rudd.
    Not a new leak. Old news:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/990636472868003845
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Quincel said:

    Betway also have a brilliant market on whether an EU member will win Eurovision, 5/6 either way. Can't decide which is value, leaning to 'No' but it's a great idea for a market - bravo Betway!

    I note Ladbrokes have the same market at the same odds. Wonder who nicked the idea of the other?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    NEW THREAD
This discussion has been closed.