politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Coli

Mr. HYUFD, cheers for that answer.

Mr. Uprising, ha, I almost added a mildly expletive description of said mayors. Not in favour of that nonsense either.

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. rkrkrk, what does Australia spend on their healthcare, compared to us? Perhaps we should look at learning from their system.

In Australia it is compulsory for the wealthiest 10% of earners to have private health insurance

No, but they do have to pay a higher Medicare levy if they do not have private insurance.

Hunt needs to put this fire out, fast:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/989773616446291968

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/gaurangmorjaria/status/988737265118703617

So are Gordon Brown and Alan Johnson going to accept the blame too given this problem started on their watch?

I don't think either is active politically, while a certain Home Secretary for 6 years of this period, during which it was ramped up, has put her deputy in the frame.

rottenborough said:

Hunt needs to put this fire out, fast:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/989773616446291968

Tier 2 visas are a Home Office responsibility, not Health Secretary.

Dr. Foxy, aye. Yet Brown was blaming Thatcher two decades after she left office.

Mr. Freggles, thou art a silly sausage.

Morning all

Busy day yesterday rounding off with an evening at Kempton Park for their first jump race evening for many years. I suspect it won't be repeated - had it not been for the roofers and builders attending their social evening, I suspect it would have matched an all-weather meeting. in terms of attendance.

Despite much hype, the QMUL poll told us very little. Much excitement about the rise of the Conservative vote in "Inner" London as the gap closed from 50 points to 34 points but if the pollsters themselves warn you can't necessarily extrapolate the numbers on a borough-by-borough basis why did the Standard immediately assume the Conservatives would hold Wandsworth and Westminster ?

The original 67-17 split in Inner London looked odd and 59-24 looks more reasonable. The Conservatives will probably win 15-20% even in Newham despite their pledge for all secondary school children to enjoy/endure a mandatory 12 hours of sport every week (no laughing at the back).

In Outer London the QMUL poll numbers look static - Labour down 1 if we're being pedantic. Those numbers hide a multitude of sins - large Conservative voters in many areas such as Bromley, southern areas of Croydon, parts of Havering, Bexley, parts of Hillingdon but no one is saying the Tories will regain Croydon but they will pile up votes in places like Sanderstead, Purley and Coulsdon as they always do.

It tells us little about how the likes of Kingston, Richmond, Sutton, Hillingdon and Havering will turn out. I've seen a prediction in terms of Boroughs won/controlled of LAB 23, CON 5, LD 3, NOC 1. Not improbable.

rottenborough said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/gaurangmorjaria/status/988737265118703617

So are Gordon Brown and Alan Johnson going to accept the blame too given this problem started on their watch?

If you want to offer odds against Gordon Brown still being Prime Minister this time next week, I'm sure some of the pb punters will be interested.

I know there are very few Gordon fans on this site. But honestly, does anyone think we would be in the mess the UK is in at the moment, if he had remained PM?

Worse.

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxy, aye. Yet Brown was blaming Thatcher two decades after she left office.

I guess that's the price you pay when the other side of the coin says greatest PM ever, turned this country around, made this country what it is today etc.

Though I imagine at the moment there isn't a huge queue wanting to claim the title of maker of today's Britain.

rottenborough said:

"When you have a big tent, you don't nod politely and sympathetically as folks take an axe to the supports, snip at the tethers and rip up the pegs. There is a hardcore group for whom their opposition to Corbyn is a cypher for their opposition to what Labour is becoming: a mass, democratic movement informed by and responding to the lived experience of millions of people hitherto excluded from mainstream politics."

"...This drives their exaggeration of Labour Party anti-semitism."

https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/len-mccluskey-on-labour-anti-semitism.html

Fair comment by McCluskey and articulately put. This has gone way too far and I hope the inevitable backlash is kept under control.

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting development yesterday. The UK ratified the Unified Patent Court agreement. This means that for the first time in our history, non-UK courts will have jurisdiction over deciding patent validity and infringement in the UK. In practice, this means that a court in Germany hearing a case in German could decide in favour of a German patent holder against a British defendant and issue an injunction preventing the British company selling or distributing the infringing product in the UK. This has never been possible before and represents a significant transfer of sovereignty away from the UK. Ironically, the only thing holding implementation of the system up now is a challenge in the German Constitutional Court. If that fails, it's all systems go. Possibly by the end of this year.

Hmmm I wonder why people don't trust TMay when she says we are leaving THE customs union......

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amazing video of the joint tree planting ceremony on the North - South Korean border.

Obama got a peace prize for nothing

Trump should get one for his efforts over Korea - this would not have happened without Trump

(And I think he is an utter disaster but credit where it is due)

I don't think this has anything to do with Trump. A brutal but entirely rational dictator has got what he wants in terms of nuclear weapons looks to lock in his advantage by normalizing relations to help his economy.

Of course Trump has played a big part in this. The difference in our views is that we both dislike Trump intensely but I am willing to give credit where it is due and am not blinded by political dogma

I suspect that Trump's 'I'm as mad as Nixon' routine scared the Chinese enough to want to finally sit on Kim until he agreed to descale things back a bit.

Thing is, Kim gets exactly what he wants - useable nuclear weapons AND international recognition. Why would he need to be pressured?

FF43 said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amazing video of the joint tree planting ceremony on the North - South Korean border.

Obama got a peace prize for nothing

Trump should get one for his efforts over Korea - this would not have happened without Trump

(And I think he is an utter disaster but credit where it is due)

I don't think this has anything to do with Trump. A brutal but entirely rational dictator has got what he wants in terms of nuclear weapons looks to lock in his advantage by normalizing relations to help his economy.

Of course Trump has played a big part in this. The difference in our views is that we both dislike Trump intensely but I am willing to give credit where it is due and am not blinded by political dogma

I suspect that Trump's 'I'm as mad as Nixon' routine scared the Chinese enough to want to finally sit on Kim until he agreed to descale things back a bit.

Thing is, Kim gets exactly what he wants - useable nuclear weapons AND international recognition. Why would he need to be pressured?

Does South Korea recognise a second state on the peninsular? If not, might it be persuaded - I guess ending the war would amount to that?

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amazing video of the joint tree planting ceremony on the North - South Korean border.

Obama got a peace prize for nothing

Trump should get one for his efforts over Korea - this would not have happened without Trump

(And I think he is an utter disaster but credit where it is due)

I don't think this has anything to do with Trump. A brutal but entirely rational dictator has got what he wants in terms of nuclear weapons looks to lock in his advantage by normalizing relations to help his economy.

Of course Trump has played a big part in this. The difference in our views is that we both dislike Trump intensely but I am willing to give credit where it is due and am not blinded by political dogma

I suspect that Trump's 'I'm as mad as Nixon' routine scared the Chinese enough to want to finally sit on Kim until he agreed to descale things back a bit.

No. It was Trump's trade war with China that scared them. No-one expected missiles to start flying.

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Hunt needs to put this fire out, fast:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/989773616446291968

Tier 2 visas are a Home Office responsibility, not Health Secretary.

A perfectly reasonable question is why -- when we are one of the most scientifically advanced countries in the world and when 50 per cent of our children go to University -- we are short of NHS doctors.

I know people in Wales who wanted to go to medical school, and train as doctors but could not because of arbitrary quotas at medical schools. There is a shortage of GPs and dentists in Wales.

(I know the answer -- it is cheaper to let other countries pay for the education & training of our doctors. )

I was at an interesting meeting with our Medical School admissions lead the other day, preppping for next years round. The stats are pretty good for school leavers with AAA including Chemistry. Over half get a place with their first application, and a further quarter get a place the following year. presumably some of the unfortunate 25% are tempramentally unsuited.

What is lacking is good application and advice at State Schools compared with Private ones in terms of interview preparation, though we do try to level that playing field.

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amazing video of the joint tree planting ceremony on the North - South Korean border.

Obama got a peace prize for nothing

Trump should get one for his efforts over Korea - this would not have happened without Trump

(And I think he is an utter disaster but credit where it is due)

I don't think this has anything to do with Trump. A brutal but entirely rational dictator has got what he wants in terms of nuclear weapons looks to lock in his advantage by normalizing relations to help his economy.

I agree. Kim has turned the collapse of his nuclear testing site into an opportunity. He'll also use Trump's vanity as an opportunity by giving Trump credit for saving the world (but not giving up his nuclear weapons). Trump might even kiss him.

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/gaurangmorjaria/status/988737265118703617

Very powerful. Kick 'em out!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, cheers for that answer.

Mr. Uprising, ha, I almost added a mildly expletive description of said mayors. Not in favour of that nonsense either.

Thanks

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nunuone said:

Try never to have a victim mentality even when you are the victim. It just keeps you down.
https://twitter.com/BigBroHeavy/status/989560186565267457

That is a quite wonderful statement

We need more, much more, of that forgiving generous attitude

I'll look out for it in your next comment about Corbyn

Mr. Divvie, if growth increases significantly in Q2, then it could be attributed to seasonal factors (bad weather most likely). If not, looks worse, but we are due for a cyclical recession.

Worth noting that GDP stats are often revised upwards, which gets little coverage (a decline would, of course, get more).

JonathanD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

It's all X's* fault.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/989785655592062977

*Insert bête of choice.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/989787713606909952

" However, construction contracted by 3.3%, contributing negative 0.21 percentage points to GDP."

I.e. with flat construction we would have been at 0.3% , broadly flat q-o-q, possibly 0.4% given the effect on retail

stodge said:

Morning all

Busy day yesterday rounding off with an evening at Kempton Park for their first jump race evening for many years. I suspect it won't be repeated - had it not been for the roofers and builders attending their social evening, I suspect it would have matched an all-weather meeting. in terms of attendance.

Despite much hype, the QMUL poll told us very little. Much excitement about the rise of the Conservative vote in "Inner" London as the gap closed from 50 points to 34 points but if the pollsters themselves warn you can't necessarily extrapolate the numbers on a borough-by-borough basis why did the Standard immediately assume the Conservatives would hold Wandsworth and Westminster ?

The original 67-17 split in Inner London looked odd and 59-24 looks more reasonable. The Conservatives will probably win 15-20% even in Newham despite their pledge for all secondary school children to enjoy/endure a mandatory 12 hours of sport every week (no laughing at the back).

In Outer London the QMUL poll numbers look static - Labour down 1 if we're being pedantic. Those numbers hide a multitude of sins - large Conservative voters in many areas such as Bromley, southern areas of Croydon, parts of Havering, Bexley, parts of Hillingdon but no one is saying the Tories will regain Croydon but they will pile up votes in places like Sanderstead, Purley and Coulsdon as they always do.

It tells us little about how the likes of Kingston, Richmond, Sutton, Hillingdon and Havering will turn out. I've seen a prediction in terms of Boroughs won/controlled of LAB 23, CON 5, LD 3, NOC 1. Not improbable.

Some interesting comments, although I can assure you that Conservative voters in Bromley are no larger than those in other boroughs

For me, the most interesting question in the Outer boroughs is how the Tories do in the Brexitty wards that used to be good for Labour, but voted decisively for Brexit.

I think your council count understates the Tories and overstates the Liberals.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

JonathanD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

It's all X's* fault.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/989785655592062977

*Insert bête of choice.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/989787713606909952

" However, construction contracted by 3.3%, contributing negative 0.21 percentage points to GDP."

I.e. with flat construction we would have been at 0.3% , broadly flat q-o-q, possibly 0.4% given the effect on retail

1.2% GDP growth year on year. A triumph.

Anyway, the fall in GDP growth is a trend over the last couple of years now and as the ONS says, its broad based.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/989788351564861440

Never read too much into a single quarter's figures.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, if growth increases significantly in Q2, then it could be attributed to seasonal factors (bad weather most likely). If not, looks worse, but we are due for a cyclical recession.

Worth noting that GDP stats are often revised upwards, which gets little coverage (a decline would, of course, get more).

Nobody should pay too much attention to GDP figures. And yet, 0.1% is worse than 0.4%

OblitusSumMe said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

JonathanD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

It's all X's* fault.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/989785655592062977

*Insert bête of choice.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/989787713606909952

" However, construction contracted by 3.3%, contributing negative 0.21 percentage points to GDP."

I.e. with flat construction we would have been at 0.3% , broadly flat q-o-q, possibly 0.4% given the effect on retail

No. If the weather hadn't been bad, so that construction could be flat, then you would also have to subtract from GDP the boost from increased energy supply.

Unlikely to be significant as they are not a driver of GDP:

"Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply grew by 2.3% and contributed 0.04 percentage points to GDP."

@JonathanD

Obviously GDP growth is subdued. 1.2% is nothing to shout about. We will have another year of the same no doubt, maybe more

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nunuone said:

Try never to have a victim mentality even when you are the victim. It just keeps you down.
https://twitter.com/BigBroHeavy/status/989560186565267457

That is a quite wonderful statement

We need more, much more, of that forgiving generous attitude

I'll look out for it in your next comment about Corbyn

I would not hold your breath.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, indeed. Bit like looking too much at one poll.

Mr. Me, aye. Although some silly persons would describe a 0.1% rise as a spike.

No doubt that Leave meme will be updated to reflect the decline in GDP per person.

RoyalBlue said:

Some interesting comments, although I can assure you that Conservative voters in Bromley are no larger than those in other boroughs

For me, the most interesting question in the Outer boroughs is how the Tories do in the Brexitty wards that used to be good for Labour, but voted decisively for Brexit.

I think your council count understates the Tories and overstates the Liberals.

So easy to type voters when meaning votes and no auto-correction either.

Not my prediction by the way - I've said before the LDs will have a MeatLoaf election and be singing "two out of three ain't bad" next Friday morning.

Indeed, only twice (94-98 and 06-10) have the LDs held all of Kingston, Richmond and Sutton at the same time. It's a big ask.

You're a Tory and you obviously want to spin positively Conservative prospects so let's try a little honesty for a change.

I think the key Boroughs are Kingston, Richmond, Sutton, Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon and Havering. They currently split CON 6 LD 1 NOC 1

I think the post-election split will be CON 4 LD 2 LAB 1 NOC 1 - what do you think ?

Mr. Meeks, mocking Faisal Islam's unique and unorthodox approach to a 0.1% rise in inflation is nothing to do with remain/leave or the EU, just ridiculing a very daft slant a journalist took when inflation rose by the smallest possible increment.

GIN1138 said:

Happy GDP Day PB.

0.1% is... Bad!

Bring back George.

He grew the economy, reduced both the deficit and the number of the work-shy claiming unemployment benefits.

Not being an economist but I guess this GDP figure will have a sub optimal impact on the deficit figures ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not being an economist but I guess this GDP figure will have a sub optimal impact on the deficit figures ?

The ONS had the benefit of a preliminary estimate.

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/989793424051179522?s=21

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Happy GDP Day PB.

0.1% is... Bad!

Bring back George.

He grew the economy, reduced both the deficit and the number of the work-shy claiming unemployment benefits.

And then he blew it all in the referendum....

Jonathan said:

This govt really isn't very good.

Maybe not, but compared with the alternative...

eristdoof said:

Foxy said:

I was at an interesting meeting with our Medical School admissions lead the other day, preppping for next years round. The stats are pretty good for school leavers with AAA including Chemistry. Over half get a place with their first application, and a further quarter get a place the following year. presumably some of the unfortunate 25% are tempramentally unsuited.

What is lacking is good application and advice at State Schools compared with Private ones in terms of interview preparation, though we do try to level that playing field.

When I was a lecturer at a Russel Group Uni it was easy to tell the private school pupils because they all blew their own trumpet in the same style, ie. wrote and said what their school told them to. The good prospective students would come across as individuals regardless of school background and interview nerves.

How did the control group get on?

steve_garner said:

French GDP growth in Q1 0.3%.

and everyone there is on strike.

steve_garner said:

French GDP growth in Q1 0.3%.

Yes, after growth of 0.7% in Q4 2017. In half a year they have had almost the same amount of growth as we have had in a full year.

And Spanish GDP was +0.7% for Q1 2018.

Its just as well the UK has Europe to pull us along at the moment.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989800111294287872

Does AfD have a British branch then?

TOPPING said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/989793424051179522?s=21

(How) does Trump not benefit from this?

It's due to a conciliatory S. Korean leader, not Trump.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989800111294287872

Does AfD have a British branch then?

Yeah...Momentum....

JonathanD said:

steve_garner said:

French GDP growth in Q1 0.3%.

Yes, after growth of 0.7% in Q4 2017. In half a year they have had almost the same amount of growth as we have had in a full year.

And Spanish GDP was +0.7% for Q1 2018.

Its just as well the UK has Europe to pull us along at the moment.

We’re doing worse than France?

The shame. THE SHAME.

This truly is a national humiliation.

nunuone said:

TOPPING said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/989793424051179522?s=21

(How) does Trump not benefit from this?

Oh I think he does. As much as I hate him, I think being unpredictable can help in foreign affairs. Your adversaries will think "hmm you know what he's soooo crazy he might just do it".

Trump will benefit politically. It is just that his threats against NK had very little to do with it.

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

geoffw said:

TOPPING said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/cnn/status/989793424051179522?s=21

(How) does Trump not benefit from this?

Or, how has this not benefited from Trump?

Kim Jong-un has got the usable nuclear weapons he wants and is now turning his attention to shoring up his diplomatic position, mainly to help his languishing economy. Trump can either poop the party and keep applying sanctions, maybe turning the screw a bit, or he can declare peace in our time and congratulate himself on his negotiating prowess in getting the deal and in this way normalise North Korea. I wonder which he will do?

Somewhat answering my own question, I think other US presidents would be wary of going full in for a Kim lovefest. Trump doesn't care if he thinks it plays well with the US electorate and his self-regard. It doesn't make any difference to North Korean nuclear weapons - they are there for Kim to keep and threaten to use when the occasion arises. At least it recognises the reality of the situation, which is safety of a sort.

I think we may be underestimating how quickly things could develop. Kim spoke about the Koreas being "one nation" and mentioned unification.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Hunt needs to put this fire out, fast:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/989773616446291968

Tier 2 visas are a Home Office responsibility, not Health Secretary.

A perfectly reasonable question is why -- when we are one of the most scientifically advanced countries in the world and when 50 per cent of our children go to University -- we are short of NHS doctors.

I know people in Wales who wanted to go to medical school, and train as doctors but could not because of arbitrary quotas at medical schools. There is a shortage of GPs and dentists in Wales.

(I know the answer -- it is cheaper to let other countries pay for the education & training of our doctors. )

I was at an interesting meeting with our Medical School admissions lead the other day, preppping for next years round. The stats are pretty good for school leavers with AAA including Chemistry. Over half get a place with their first application, and a further quarter get a place the following year. presumably some of the unfortunate 25% are tempramentally unsuited.

What is lacking is good application and advice at State Schools compared with Private ones in terms of interview preparation, though we do try to level that playing field.

I agree with your last comment. Too many state schools don't know how to prepare their pupils for entry into competitive medical schools.

The large Coleg in my North Walian town has sent precisely ONE person to medical school in the last 10 years.

That is one of the things that I find desperately depressing -- there is so much talent in our schools already that is not being nurtured or encouraged, and then we find ourselves short of doctors.

Some Universities, such as UEA, run foundation programmes for applicants from areas not traditionally going to Med School, so as to get these pupils up to speed. They do as well as other students post admission.

That is the sort of support we aim to give, and no dumbing down.

Ditch the interviews, ditch the personal statements and you'd also ditch the preparation bias, as well as saving time and money.

At Leicester we do not look at the Personal statements, and do 8 mini interviews including some with actors as patients.