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First like Labour in London.0
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Second. Others Greens rather than Kippers in 2014, I suspect.0
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I see the BBC are bleating about the idea of illegal immigrants being deported.
Am I missing something? What is wrong with removing people who are here illegally exactly? It's mental.0 -
#LabourGainLondon
#Kaboom0 -
I cannot see Labour winning in Westminster.0
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So as I expected little net change but could be enough for the Tories to save the furniture in London rather than facing a wipeout0
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FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.0 -
It's being suggested that having the targets encouraged Home Office officials to be unfair when considering the merits of claims by possibly legal immigrants - like Windrushers. Perhaps if they weren't being pushed to deport a certain number of people they wouldn't have deported a bunch of British citizens, is the argument.CopperSulphate said:I see the BBC are bleating about the idea of illegal immigrants being deported.
Am I missing something? What is wrong with removing people who are here illegally exactly? It's mental.0 -
Think this election will be Theresa's nadir.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Ben Walker
@spreadsheetben
2m2 minutes ago
Contact rates in London by...
Party / Inner LDN / Outer LDN:
Con: 17 / 27
Lab: 38 / 31
LDem: 15 / 12
Grn: 5 / 4
(YouGov/Mile End Institute poll)
https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/989456377792942085
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The 2014 figures above are total votes. For others, who frequently put up less than a full state of candidates or more subject to vote sharing (as if it were a second preference!) the difference is quite big. On a highest vote basis others got 26% last time, and even on Today's polling every type of other loses out substantiallyOldKingCole said:Second. Others Greens rather than Kippers in 2014, I suspect.
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The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.0 -
Still going down from 2017 GE?GIN1138 said:
Think this election will be Theresa's nadir.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Ben Walker
@spreadsheetben
13m13 minutes ago
Ben Walker Retweeted Britain Elects
Inner London subsample (containing Wandsworth/Westminster) has gone from Lab 67 Con 17 (Feb) to Lab 58 Con 25 (Apr). Hm.
https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/9894545605603696640 -
Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll. Compared to London as a whole, Barnet now has a huge Conservative lean.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.0 -
In London yes. Tories are going to get an absolute hammering.logical_song said:
Still going down from 2017 GE?GIN1138 said:
Think this election will be Theresa's nadir.CarlottaVance said:
Rest of the country will be more "mixed" of course.0 -
This fall coincides with concerted Momentum canvassing in both Westminster and Wandsworth.old_labour said:Ben Walker
@spreadsheetben
13m13 minutes ago
Ben Walker Retweeted Britain Elects
Inner London subsample (containing Wandsworth/Westminster) has gone from Lab 67 Con 17 (Feb) to Lab 58 Con 25 (Apr). Hm.
https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/989454560560369664
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The regional breakdown shows that in London houses are even more out of reach for most people with the average price relative to average earnings stretching to 13.24, up from 12.91 in 2016.old_labour said:0 -
Tissue_Price said:Pulpstar said:
This micro-analysis is all very well, but outside the scope of the potential accuracy of modern day polling in my opinion. Either Westminter and Wandsworth always were going to go red, or always were going to stay blue. I doubt there has been such a swing in inner London since February, more the polls tracking the VI aren't perfect judges of the actual situation on the ground.CarlottaVance said:
The inner London swing will probably be somewhere between 6.5 and 13% but could still be more or less.0 -
Outside of London the Tories may well make gains compared to 2014 and even be up on GE 2017logical_song said:
Still going down from 2017 GE?GIN1138 said:
Think this election will be Theresa's nadir.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Nothing to do with the wreckers and saboteurs.SouthamObserver said:
This fall coincides with concerted Momentum canvassing in both Westminster and Wandsworth.old_labour said:Ben Walker
@spreadsheetben
13m13 minutes ago
Ben Walker Retweeted Britain Elects
Inner London subsample (containing Wandsworth/Westminster) has gone from Lab 67 Con 17 (Feb) to Lab 58 Con 25 (Apr). Hm.
https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/989454560560369664
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No, neither can I. But I can see them gaining Kensington.old_labour said:I cannot see Labour winning in Westminster.
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The Jewish vote is key in Barnet, it has the highest Jewish population in the UKQuincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.0 -
Significantly more in London, significantly less in the North East thoughold_labour said:0 -
Pic.
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A 7% swing in Wandsworth would result in Con 34, Lab 26, so close, but no cigar.0
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Roughly 3-4% of Barnet are Jewish Labour voters, and they are concentrated in safe Tory wards. Their impact is being wildly overstated.HYUFD said:
The Jewish vote is key in Barnet, it has the highest Jewish population in the UKQuincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.0 -
Will Diane Abbott be the first Shadow Home Secretary to claim a cabinet scalp since 2009?0
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A 7% swing in Westminster gives a result of Con 42, Lab 18, despite Labour finishing ahead in votes.
Labour's problem in Westminster, Kensington, and Wandsworth, is that their support is concentrated in relatively few wards.0 -
An army of Owen Jones devotees hasn't actually persuaded anyone? In fact, the reverse? I am shocked.SouthamObserver said:
This fall coincides with concerted Momentum canvassing in both Westminster and Wandsworth.old_labour said:Ben Walker
@spreadsheetben
13m13 minutes ago
Ben Walker Retweeted Britain Elects
Inner London subsample (containing Wandsworth/Westminster) has gone from Lab 67 Con 17 (Feb) to Lab 58 Con 25 (Apr). Hm.
https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/9894545605603696640 -
Election Data
@election_data
6m6 minutes ago
Polling in London at this point in 2014 :
LAB 44 (now 51)
CON 31 (now 29)
LD 11 (now 11)
UKIP 10
GRN 2
Results in London in 2014 were:
LAB 37.4
CON 26.1
LD 10.2
UKIP 10.0
GRN 9.6
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/989460354097958912
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I think Corbyn will definitely help draw in those Green votes that Labour may have lost vs the 2014 poll.nunuone said:0 -
Given the borough is currently Tory and the Tories narrowly won most wards in Barnet at GE2017 if Labour lose any of their existing Jewish voters it could be fatal for them given they have to make net gains from the Tories to win the boroughQuincel said:
Roughly 3-4% of Barnet are Jewish Labour voters, and they are concentrated in safe Tory wards. Their impact is being wildly overstated.HYUFD said:
The Jewish vote is key in Barnet, it has the highest Jewish population in the UKQuincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.0 -
Yes.Sean_F said:A 7% swing in Westminster gives a result of Con 42, Lab 18, despite Labour finishing ahead in votes.
Labour's problem in Westminster, Kensington, and Wandsworth, is that their support is concentrated in relatively few wards.0 -
Owen Jones has a point, but it's certainly not a bad poll for Labour. Labour could expect big seat gains from the Conservatives in Redbridge, Enfield, Croydon, Ealing, and Merton on these numbers. However, they could not expect to pick up many additional boroughs.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The Tories led by 2% in a general election vote in Barnet last year. That's an apples and oranges comparison.Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.0 -
She's not best placed to claim people who don't know the facts should resign....williamglenn said:Will Diane Abbott be the first Shadow Home Secretary to claim a cabinet scalp since 2009?
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Labour led most national polls before the 2014 Locals, that is not the case nowQuincel said:
The Tories led by 2% in a general election vote in Barnet last year. That's an apples and oranges comparison.Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.0 -
if they had wanted a scalp they wouldn't have sent Abbott to the box.williamglenn said:Will Diane Abbott be the first Shadow Home Secretary to claim a cabinet scalp since 2009?
Seamus must suspect keeping Rudd in place is a better move.0 -
Hence even if the Tories lose all their councillors in Ealing and almost all of them in Enfield and Redbridge the media focus on Wandsworth and Westminster means if they cling on there ministers can do a Kenneth Baker 1990 on election night and say they held the crown jewelsSean_F said:
Owen Jones has a point, but it's certainly not a bad poll for Labour. Labour could expect big seat gains from the Conservatives in Redbridge, Enfield, Croydon, Ealing, and Merton on these numbers. However, they could not expect to pick up many additional boroughs.CarlottaVance said:0 -
doesn't she have enough to do as PM......old_labour said:0 -
It has a good interactive graphic about half way down.old_labour said:0 -
Meanwhile, the rest of the country does not frot itself into a frenzy over a London-only poll.0
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Poll suggests not even many London voters give a toss about Windrush.
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Donald Trump got away with calling Hillary Clinton crooked.CarlottaVance said:
She's not best placed to claim people who don't know the facts should resign....williamglenn said:Will Diane Abbott be the first Shadow Home Secretary to claim a cabinet scalp since 2009?
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Do as I say, not do as I do, eh!CarlottaVance said:
She's not best placed to claim people who don't know the facts should resign....williamglenn said:Will Diane Abbott be the first Shadow Home Secretary to claim a cabinet scalp since 2009?
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Is George on holiday?old_labour said:
Surely the headlines should be:
May trails Labour by 22 points in London
But exclusive poll shows Tories could cling on in Wandsworth and Westminster0 -
....and six months later.HYUFD said:
Hence even if the Tories lose all their councillors in Ealing and almost all of them in Enfield and Redbridge the media focus on Wandsworth and Westminster means if they cling on there ministers can do a Kenneth Baker 1990 on election night and say they held the crown jewelsSean_F said:
Owen Jones has a point, but it's certainly not a bad poll for Labour. Labour could expect big seat gains from the Conservatives in Redbridge, Enfield, Croydon, Ealing, and Merton on these numbers. However, they could not expect to pick up many additional boroughs.CarlottaVance said:0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Is George on holiday?old_labour said:
Surely the headlines should be:
May trails Labour by 22 points in London
But exclusive poll shows Tories could cling on in Wandsworth and Westminster
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Thatcher did go but 2 years later the Tories won a historic 4th consecutive general election victory, when most expected Kinnock would win on his second attemptold_labour said:
....and six months later.HYUFD said:
Hence even if the Tories lose all their councillors in Ealing and almost all of them in Enfield and Redbridge the media focus on Wandsworth and Westminster means if they cling on there ministers can do a Kenneth Baker 1990 on election night and say they held the crown jewelsSean_F said:
Owen Jones has a point, but it's certainly not a bad poll for Labour. Labour could expect big seat gains from the Conservatives in Redbridge, Enfield, Croydon, Ealing, and Merton on these numbers. However, they could not expect to pick up many additional boroughs.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Voting intention for Westiminster elections shows a swing of 0.5% to Labour since last year, in line with national voting intention.0
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I think there is reason to believe that the Conservative vote is more solid in Barnet than in other boroughs.Quincel said:
The Tories led by 2% in a general election vote in Barnet last year. That's an apples and oranges comparison.Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.0 -
Lewisham East bye election anyone ?0
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0
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The Conservative position in both Enfield and Redbridge has collapsed, notwithstanding that both boroughs were close to 50/50 in the Brexit Referendum. I know that levels of owner occupation have plummeted in Enfield North, and suspect that is true elsewhere.HYUFD said:
Hence even if the Tories lose all their councillors in Ealing and almost all of them in Enfield and Redbridge the media focus on Wandsworth and Westminster means if they cling on there ministers can do a Kenneth Baker 1990 on election night and say they held the crown jewelsSean_F said:
Owen Jones has a point, but it's certainly not a bad poll for Labour. Labour could expect big seat gains from the Conservatives in Redbridge, Enfield, Croydon, Ealing, and Merton on these numbers. However, they could not expect to pick up many additional boroughs.CarlottaVance said:0 -
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?
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I think there was a backlog of illegal immigrants who had not been deported that the Home Office was being asked to deal with. The problem was that some Windrush category were wrongly classified as illegal rather than the backlog of illegals finally being deported.Quincel said:
It's being suggested that having the targets encouraged Home Office officials to be unfair when considering the merits of claims by possibly legal immigrants - like Windrushers. Perhaps if they weren't being pushed to deport a certain number of people they wouldn't have deported a bunch of British citizens, is the argument.CopperSulphate said:I see the BBC are bleating about the idea of illegal immigrants being deported.
Am I missing something? What is wrong with removing people who are here illegally exactly? It's mental.0 -
As a Lib Dem ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?0 -
Danny Alexander?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?0 -
Looks as if Europe's titan of banking is going to give up on investing. Doesn't bode well for when Europe tries to go it alone after 2020.0
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Heidi, not Danny...TGOHF said:
As a Lib Dem ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?
(Obviously I would still expect Khan to contest - and win)0 -
yes, labour only have a 2% lead among white voters in London. Tory problems in London is long term because of demographic change.old_labour said:
It has a good interactive graphic about half way down.old_labour said:0 -
Nah - the Blairites are deserting the field of battle .TheWhiteRabbit said:
Heidi, not Danny...TGOHF said:
As a Lib Dem ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?
(Obviously I would still expect Khan to contest - and win)0 -
Trying telling kids about dial-up internet, or even the dark days before the internet and mobile phones (when as a student you had to take your 10p's to the pay phone).....the puzzled look on their little faces is a joy to behold.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
twitter.com/YouGov/status/9894193234951536640 -
old_labour said:
Donald Trump got away with calling Hillary Clinton crooked.CarlottaVance said:
She's not best placed to claim people who don't know the facts should resign....williamglenn said:Will Diane Abbott be the first Shadow Home Secretary to claim a cabinet scalp since 2009?
And Bill Clinton got away with quite a lot with Hillary Clinton too.
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1990 was a good year for the Conservatives in London. They gained Hillingdon and Ealing, and minority control in Brent. But, it was a terrible year everywhere else.HYUFD said:
Thatcher did go but 2 years later the Tories won a historic 4th consecutive general election victory, when most expected Kinnock would win on his second attemptold_labour said:
....and six months later.HYUFD said:
Hence even if the Tories lose all their councillors in Ealing and almost all of them in Enfield and Redbridge the media focus on Wandsworth and Westminster means if they cling on there ministers can do a Kenneth Baker 1990 on election night and say they held the crown jewelsSean_F said:
Owen Jones has a point, but it's certainly not a bad poll for Labour. Labour could expect big seat gains from the Conservatives in Redbridge, Enfield, Croydon, Ealing, and Merton on these numbers. However, they could not expect to pick up many additional boroughs.CarlottaVance said:0 -
That's not even a proper 5 1/4" floppy - its one of those new-fangled 3 1/2" stiffies.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9894193234951536640 -
Amber Rudd has a solution...nunuone said:
yes, labour only have a 2% lead among white voters in London. Tory problems in London is long term because of demographic change.old_labour said:
It has a good interactive graphic about half way down.old_labour said:0 -
10p?FrancisUrquhart said:
Trying telling kids about dial-up internet, or even the dark days before the internet and mobile phones (when as a student you had to take your 10p's to the pay phone).....the puzzled look on their little faces is a joy to behold.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
twitter.com/YouGov/status/989419323495153664
I can remember when you could make a call for 2p!
EDIT: or, failing that, you could ask the operator to reverse the charges, if you were prepared to face the storm of parental wrath that would greet you when the call was connected...0 -
You don't expect Khan to stand or you don't expect Heidi to replace him?TGOHF said:
Nah - the Blairites are deserting the field of battle .TheWhiteRabbit said:
Heidi, not Danny...TGOHF said:
As a Lib Dem ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?
(Obviously I would still expect Khan to contest - and win)
Not sure I'd class her as a Blairite? She is "neutral but not hostile"!
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As we now know, polls in the leadup to 2015 were overstating Labour significantly. Labour are now polling neck and neck, they were in reality not doing that well in 2014.HYUFD said:
Labour led most national polls before the 2014 Locals, that is not the case nowQuincel said:
The Tories led by 2% in a general election vote in Barnet last year. That's an apples and oranges comparison.Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.
2010 Locals (Barnet): 11% Tory lead
2010 General (Barnet): 14% Tory lead
Obviously we can't be certain, since polls can be wrong and voter behaviours change over time. But every poll and election available suggests Barnet voters are more Labour-leaning in locals than generals - and that the current position should be enough for Labour to take the borough. I'm not saying they should be 1/10, but they aren't even 1/2 now! When polling and previous elections point to a Labour gain they should be solid favourites.0 -
Alexander the Great?David_Evershed said:
Danny Alexander?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?0 -
you mean the 3D save icon?SandyRentool said:
That's not even a proper 5 1/4" floppy - its one of those new-fangled 3 1/2" stiffies.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/989419323495153664
Even in my twenties I felt old when an 18-year-old colleague describe as VHS as "what, one of those thick DVDs". My copy of the Lion King is a prized possession.0 -
Give me a hard disc any day.SandyRentool said:
That's not even a proper 5 1/4" floppy - its one of those new-fangled 3 1/2" stiffies.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9894193234951536640 -
Alexander's been backed as the royal baby name. Is there a minimum age? Mind you if they drag this out much longer the royal sprog will have started school before they give him a name. What's the hold up?David_Evershed said:
Danny Alexander?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?0 -
Peter Lilley just told a conference that negotiating an FTA with the EU will be easy and that the EU wants to negotiate a deal that is “the worst one for the UK that the UK will accept.”
He said the two levers/aces up their sleeves are the budget contributions for the UK and NI for the EU.
He said that the reaching of an FTA between the EU and the UK was less likely than people think but that one likely will be reached which will be good for goods, less good for services and least good for financial services.0 -
OK guys how about I prepare the placards and we can decide later who we are actually going to nominateDecrepitJohnL said:
Alexander's been backed as the royal baby name. Is there a minimum age? Mind you if they drag this out much longer the royal sprog will have started school before they give him a name. What's the hold up?David_Evershed said:
Danny Alexander?TheWhiteRabbit said:
A terribly boring question.TGOHF said:Lewisham East bye election anyone ?
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?0 -
Deleted. Beaten to the punchline.0
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Can we now all get back to talking about more important things such as the all out election following boundary changes at South Lakes District Council?0
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The swing in Outer London on these numbers, since 2014, is 3%, which would give Labour a small majority in Barnet, if repeated there. But, I'm expecting the swing to Labour to be much greater than 3% in some Outer London boroughs, like Enfield and Redbridge, but far less in others, like Barnet.Quincel said:
As we now know, polls in the leadup to 2015 were overstating Labour significantly. Labour are now polling neck and neck, they were in reality not doing that well in 2014.HYUFD said:
Labour led most national polls before the 2014 Locals, that is not the case nowQuincel said:
The Tories led by 2% in a general election vote in Barnet last year. That's an apples and oranges comparison.Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.
2010 Locals (Barnet): 11% Tory lead
2010 General (Barnet): 14% Tory lead
Obviously we can't be certain, since polls can be wrong and voter behaviours change over time. But every poll and election available suggests Barnet voters are more Labour-leaning in locals than generals - and that the current position should be enough for Labour to take the borough. I'm not saying they should be 1/10, but they aren't even 1/2 now! When polling and previous elections point to a Labour gain they should be solid favourites.
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Why? Genuinely curious, I have no particular reason to believe it will be uniform. My only personal assumption to deviate from the polls is that Labour have become much more popular in London since 2015 compared to the country nationally, though this is basically baked into my assumption on how much Labour are likely to outperform their GE figures.Sean_F said:
The swing in Outer London on these numbers, since 2014, is 3%, which would give Labour a small majority in Barnet, if repeated there. But, I'm expecting the swing to Labour to be much greater than 3% in some Outer London boroughs, like Enfield and Redbridge, but far less in others, like Barnet.Quincel said:
As we now know, polls in the leadup to 2015 were overstating Labour significantly. Labour are now polling neck and neck, they were in reality not doing that well in 2014.HYUFD said:
Labour led most national polls before the 2014 Locals, that is not the case nowQuincel said:
The Tories led by 2% in a general election vote in Barnet last year. That's an apples and oranges comparison.Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.
2010 Locals (Barnet): 11% Tory lead
2010 General (Barnet): 14% Tory lead
Obviously we can't be certain, since polls can be wrong and voter behaviours change over time. But every poll and election available suggests Barnet voters are more Labour-leaning in locals than generals - and that the current position should be enough for Labour to take the borough. I'm not saying they should be 1/10, but they aren't even 1/2 now! When polling and previous elections point to a Labour gain they should be solid favourites.0 -
I like the technical description for the change in UKIP's polling:
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/9894553711892234240 -
FPT: I agree that we shouldn't regard the IFS as gospel - in particular they aren't particularly specialised in macroeconomics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, well, yes. It's a benefit, just not a state benefit.
Mr. rkrkrk, right. So if a man is hiring someone to do work X, he can pick between a self-employed person charging more, or an employed person charging less, for the same work. That doesn't harm the self-employed at all, does it?
As for the IFS, they're overrated. They criticised an early Osborne budget for not being progressive because it would reduce spending on benefits. The reduction was due to happen because of falling unemployment, decreasing the sum spent on unemployment benefit.
But on this they are right. Your example doesn't make sense.
When I hire a company - I am paying for all of those benefits like holiday and sick leave.
When I hire a self-employed person I pay a rate which effectively includes any holiday or sick leave the self-employed person takes.
But at the moment - the self-employed person will appear artificially cheaper because the employer gets stung with more national insurance.
This change would have hurt the self-employed certainly. But only by reducing the significant tax advantage that they currently receive. And perhaps more significantly - it would reduce the incentive for the pretend self-employed who do this for tax reasons.0 -
I do sometimes wonder what youngsters think when they see what is really a universal save icon on most things, but theyve probably never even seen one in real life. Its maybe the equivalent of using the symbol of an old car crank for starting the ignition in a modern car.SandyRentool said:
That's not even a proper 5 1/4" floppy - its one of those new-fangled 3 1/2" stiffies.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9894193234951536640 -
CarlottaVance said:
I like the technical description for the change in UKIP's polling:
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/989455371189223424
Does the poll adjust for likely turnout though?0 -
Sorry to hear your stiffies are only 3 1/2”SandyRentool said:
That's not even a proper 5 1/4" floppy - its one of those new-fangled 3 1/2" stiffies.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9894193234951536640 -
Expensive, though...David_Evershed said:
Give me a hard disc any day.SandyRentool said:
That's not even a proper 5 1/4" floppy - its one of those new-fangled 3 1/2" stiffies.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/989419323495153664
(I think the first IBM PC with a hard drive, the PC XT, cost around $5000 versus $1500 for the essentially identical model without...)0 -
Tory candidate suspended over 'sweating like a Jew in an attic’ tweet
Presumably the BOD will be organising an Anti Tory rally immediately0 -
https://talksport.com/football/fa-sell-wembley-fulham-and-jacksonville-jaguars-owner-shahid-khan-180426280489
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/6147867/wembley-sold-fa-fulham-owner-shahid-khan-nfl/
Wembley to be sold off, and potentially the Jacksonville Jaguars will shortly be the London Jaguars.0 -
RIP Ceefax - not even a memory....SandyRentool said:
That's not even a proper 5 1/4" floppy - its one of those new-fangled 3 1/2" stiffies.CarlottaVance said:This'll cheer us up.....
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9894193234951536640 -
Mr. rkrkrk, so the 'pretend' self-employed jump ship and become employed. And actual, as it were, self-employed people are left worse off. I don't think that's right or fair.0
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Targets mean something isn't done properly?Quincel said:
It's being suggested that having the targets encouraged Home Office officials to be unfair when considering the merits of claims by possibly legal immigrants - like Windrushers. Perhaps if they weren't being pushed to deport a certain number of people they wouldn't have deported a bunch of British citizens, is the argument.CopperSulphate said:I see the BBC are bleating about the idea of illegal immigrants being deported.
Am I missing something? What is wrong with removing people who are here illegally exactly? It's mental.
If that's been argued successfully then all government targets should be abolished immediately. If not then the complaint is nonsense.0 -
I'm basing my assumption on the fact that Enfield and Redbridge have shown huge swings to Labour since 2010, which have not been matched in Barnet or Harrow East (a seat which is similar to Hendon).Quincel said:
Why? Genuinely curious, I have no particular reason to believe it will be uniform. My only personal assumption to deviate from the polls is that Labour have become much more popular in London since 2015 compared to the country nationally, though this is basically baked into my assumption on how much Labour are likely to outperform their GE figures.Sean_F said:
The swing in Outer London on these numbers, since 2014, is 3%, which would give Labour a small majority in Barnet, if repeated there. But, I'm expecting the swing to Labour to be much greater than 3% in some Outer London boroughs, like Enfield and Redbridge, but far less in others, like Barnet.Quincel said:
As we now know, polls in the leadup to 2015 were overstating Labour significantly. Labour are now polling neck and neck, they were in reality not doing that well in 2014.HYUFD said:
Labour led most national polls before the 2014 Locals, that is not the case nowQuincel said:
The Tories led by 2% in a general election vote in Barnet last year. That's an apples and oranges comparison.Sean_F said:
The answer is this. The Conservatives led by 2% in Barnet last year, when Labour led by 22% across London. Labour now lead by 22% in this poll.Quincel said:FPT:
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.
2010 Locals (Barnet): 11% Tory lead
2010 General (Barnet): 14% Tory lead
Obviously we can't be certain, since polls can be wrong and voter behaviours change over time. But every poll and election available suggests Barnet voters are more Labour-leaning in locals than generals - and that the current position should be enough for Labour to take the borough. I'm not saying they should be 1/10, but they aren't even 1/2 now! When polling and previous elections point to a Labour gain they should be solid favourites.0
This discussion has been closed.