politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of this morning’s YouGov London poll what happened at the capital’s last elections and the Feb 2018 poll
With so little polling or other hard data ahead of next Thursday’s elections there’s a lot of focus this morning on the new YouGov London Poll from YouGov for QMUL.
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Apparently so.
The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.
Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.
As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down
Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/989405379678429184
Is The Mirror alleging Dominic Raab's aide is a sex worker?
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/989396693249650688
On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/989409887322025984
His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/989408841656922112
In an ideal world, it would be Gove. Brexiteers need a prophet to deliver us to Israel (or Palestine for Labour supporters) from out of the bonds of the Common Commercial Policy.
About to watch it again.
Michael Gove would be my second favourite, neck and neck with Jeremy Hunt. Amber Rudd would have been in that pack until this week (though I doubt in reality this week's events will have done her much harm with her electorate).
Boris Johnson is the wildcard. Right now his bubble looks to have burst definitively.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.
Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
I also have the feeling your local cinema has a seat perfectly moulded to you.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Blue/Mr. Walker, oh, piffle and pish to your trembling over-sensitivity.
"Countenance comes from a French word for "behavior," but it has become a fancy term for either the expression of a face or the face itself: "He had a puzzled countenance," or "what a charming countenance!" Countenance can also be a verb meaning to tolerate or approve." [From googling the expression]
The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.
Labour Whips
Verified account @labourwhips
13m13 minutes ago
That's Rudd safe then
Edited extra bit: Mr. Blue, aye. But some would take that nonsense seriously... alas.
A strong majority of British people would encourage the deportation of illegal immigrants.
My view of Hammond's provocative stance to the Brexiteers was basically that he'd given up on any leadership ambitions and was trying to be a good chancellor.
I haven't bet against him. My book is +ve the field and only negative a few (Priti Patel, Damian Green, and by far the worst JRM)
I thin you can do worse than focus on those people who WANT to be PM. At least WIlliamson WANTS to be PM, which is much more than a few similarly priced contenders
Now might be different.
No comment on the story but the photo of Dominic Raab makes him look like he's the lead in a US drama!!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/dup-threatens-bring-theresa-mays-government-climbs-brexit/
The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.
Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.
If Soubry and Clarke want to go down in history as the Con MPs that let in Corbyn then good luck.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337
titter....
Today we should be getting the final YouGov poll for Queen Mary University for the London local elections a week today. I’m not sure whether Owen Jones has reliable informants at either institution, but he tweeted earlier this week that a “bad” poll for Labour was coming.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337 Did cross my mind.....
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Amber_Rudd
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Jacob_Rees_Mogg
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Gavin_Williamson
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Jeremy_Hunt
If the EU won't trust us, why should we trust them?
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/defence/defence-funding/opinion/house-lords/94674/lord-haskel-future-uk-eu-collaboration
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Michael_Gove
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Theresa_May
He has a political tin ear, and lacks people skills and empathy. He is very cerebral and more mathematical, and he’s a bit better at answering questions, but they are otherwise two very similar people. His flaws come across in Fallout, and I’ve had that corroborated by a friend who used to work for him.
Davidson, Hunt or Hinds are all Remainers who’d make much better candidates, even though they have tougher routes to the premiership.
What would “bad” mean? So far there have been two YouGov/QMUL London polls, both putting Labour about 25 points ahead on council voting intention. That would equate to a swing to Labour of about 6 per cent from 2014. The national polls have shifted slightly since these polls were done, so that might imply that the swing has fallen to 4-5 per cent.
That would be smaller than the London swing between the 2015 and 2017 general elections, which was 6.3 per cent. But crucially (as far as the narrative is concerned) it would mean – if the swing were even across the capital – that Labour would fall short in all but one of its target boroughs.
It's almost as if Brexit was designed to disrupt co-operation between European states on every level.
And injustice and unfairness are the defining characteristics of the Windrush (etc) scandal.
There's no coming back from that.
Its almost as if they believe only the UK acts in bad faith....
That does sound reminiscent of when Sky wet itself because the Coalition Government hadn't magically evacuated every British oil worker from Libya. There was a fun moment on Sky a few years ago (the old hand who made the comment has, like most others, since left) when a reporter trying to drum up sympathy for the migrant tide reported on how far they'd travelled and how many countries they'd gone through. The old hand in the studio commented that at that point they weren't refugees but shopping for the country of their choice (or words to that effect).
Edited extra bit: Mr. Flashman (deceased), it's far to the left of the BBC most of the time. Faisal Islam is not impressive (0.1% spike in inflation etc), and it's unfortunate that the excellent Tim Marshall left (for foreign affairs what Andrew Neil is for domestic politics). Mind you, ITV's got the Paul Brand, the political jester who reckoned the Grenfell fire raises questions about what sort of country we are and who governs us, and who nodded approvingly during a soft interview with someone who wanted different entry requirements to Oxbridge based on background. Worst of all was the Russian propaganda that was spun when Porton Down "couldn't identify" Russia as the source of the nerve agent. Which isn't their job. And which ITV News said, the preceding night, wasn't their job.
Annoyingly, all broadcast media is at least a bit suspect. ITV did, apparently, cover the anti-Semitism debate properly. Sky didn't mention it, reportedly, and the BBC buried it at the end (and covering it only briefly) of their news at ten.