politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of this morning’s YouGov London poll what happened at th

System · April 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of this morning’s YouGov London poll what happened at the capital’s last elections and the Feb 2018 poll

With so little polling or other hard data ahead of next Thursday’s elections there’s a lot of focus this morning on the new YouGov London Poll from YouGov for QMUL.

Read the full story here

Nigelb · April 2018

Firstish ?

Apparently so.

rottenborough · April 2018

Definitely 2nd.

Scrapheap_as_was · April 2018

3rd like Spurs ... ??

Nigelb · April 2018

Off for a coffee and a spot of Pepys.

TGOHF · April 2018

Voter ID should help the pundits on accuracy.

HYUFD · April 2018

I doubt the poll will prove too dramatic, most likely it will just show a slight narrowing of the Labour lead which may be enough for the Tories to keep their most vulnerable councils like Wandsworth and Westminster

rottenborough · April 2018

HYUFD said:
I doubt the poll will prove too dramatic, most likely it will just show a slight narrowing of the Labour lead which may be enough for the Tories to keep their most vulnerable councils like Wandsworth and Westminster

Enough to give Owen Jones the vapours?

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2018

On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now

rottenborough · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now

If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.

Theuniondivvie · April 2018

Twitter just isn't for some people.

https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/989405379678429184

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · April 2018

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:
I doubt the poll will prove too dramatic, most likely it will just show a slight narrowing of the Labour lead which may be enough for the Tories to keep their most vulnerable councils like Wandsworth and Westminster
Enough to give Owen Jones the vapours?

That's a fairly low bar tbh

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. Divvie, aye, he should've spotted that. That said, many here have fallen for a parody or suchlike before.

GIN1138 · April 2018

Morning PB.

Is The Mirror alleging Dominic Raab's aide is a sex worker?

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. Gin, I have already offered my insight on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/989396693249650688

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2018

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.

I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female

RoyalBlue · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.
I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female

Put your trust in Truss!

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

Synchronise watches:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/989409887322025984

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2018

RoyalBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.
I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female
Put your trust in Truss!

One of several to keep an eye on

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. Blue, nay, shall be Mordaunt who succeeds May. This would greatly be pleasing unto the wallet of Morris Dancer.

GIN1138 · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.
I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

After her disaster with the select committee yesterday I think Ms Rudd needs to do the honourable thing.

HYUFD · April 2018

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.

Given Hunt is awaiting the outcome of a Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards Investigation on his financial dealings and bar Gove has the worst yougov approval rating of any Cabinet Minister I doubt it. The biggest beneficiary of problems for Rudd, Hunt and Boris is Rees-Mogg unless a new younger figure emerges, Mogg is doing the rubber chicken circuit at the moment and they are selling out fast

HYUFD · April 2018

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:
I doubt the poll will prove too dramatic, most likely it will just show a slight narrowing of the Labour lead which may be enough for the Tories to keep their most vulnerable councils like Wandsworth and Westminster
Enough to give Owen Jones the vapours?

Here's hoping!

RoyalBlue · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Blue, nay, shall be Mordaunt who succeeds May. This would greatly be pleasing unto the wallet of Morris Dancer.

In that case I would be well pleased, but sadly would gain no pieces of silver

old_labour · April 2018

GIN1138 said:
Morning PB.

Is The Mirror alleging Dominic Raab's aide is a sex worker?

If he was not charging her rent for the use of that desk, he is a poor type of Tory.

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RoyalBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.
I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female
Put your trust in Truss!
One of several to keep an eye on

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.

HYUFD · April 2018

Gove, Rudd and Williamson all amassing 5 figure warchests for leadership bids

https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/989408841656922112

Anazina · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Blue, nay, shall be Mordaunt who succeeds May. This would greatly be pleasing unto the wallet of Morris Dancer.

Mordaunt is hopeless.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2018

TGOHF said:
Steven Gerrard is the next Rangers manager ? That’s left field..

LA Galaxy and now Sevco, Steve G does like helping out newly formed football teams get on the map.

RoyalBlue · April 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RoyalBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.
I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female
Put your trust in Truss!
One of several to keep an eye on
In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.

If by sane, you mean one populated by androids (without emotion chips).

In an ideal world, it would be Gove. Brexiteers need a prophet to deliver us to Israel (or Palestine for Labour supporters) from out of the bonds of the Common Commercial Policy.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2018

Infinity War. OMG.

About to watch it again.

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Miss Anazina, thy dark countenance and doom-mongering sways me not!

TheScreamingEagles · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Blue, nay, shall be Mordaunt who succeeds May. This would greatly be pleasing unto the wallet of Morris Dancer.

It is going to be Jeremy Hunt and you all know it.

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RoyalBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.
I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female
Put your trust in Truss!
One of several to keep an eye on
In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
If by sane, you mean one populated by androids (without emotion chips).

In an ideal world, it would be Gove. Perhaps it shall be...

By sane, I mean fitted to take over as Prime Minister by virtue of long experience of the highest levels of government.

Michael Gove would be my second favourite, neck and neck with Jeremy Hunt. Amber Rudd would have been in that pack until this week (though I doubt in reality this week's events will have done her much harm with her electorate).

Boris Johnson is the wildcard. Right now his bubble looks to have burst definitively.

Gardenwalker · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Anazina, thy dark countenance and doom-mongering sways me not!

Racist.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2018

HYUFD said:
Gove, Rudd and Williamson all amassing 5 figure warchests for leadership bids

https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/989408841656922112

Waste of money for Rudd and Williamson

RoyalBlue · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Anazina, thy dark countenance and doom-mongering sways me not!

Somewhat unfortunate choice of words... are you Amber Rudd’s special advisor?

rkrkrk · April 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.

He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. Eagles, Hunt is acceptable, though only pleasing to a goodly measure for mine coffers.

I also have the feeling your local cinema has a seat perfectly moulded to you.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Blue/Mr. Walker, oh, piffle and pish to your trembling over-sensitivity.

"Countenance comes from a French word for "behavior," but it has become a fancy term for either the expression of a face or the face itself: "He had a puzzled countenance," or "what a charming countenance!" Countenance can also be a verb meaning to tolerate or approve." [From googling the expression]

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

The have been some huge fluctuations ins the QMUL polling

TheScreamingEagles · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Eagles, Hunt is acceptable, though only pleasing to a goodly measure for mine coffers.

I also have the feeling your local cinema has a seat perfectly moulded to you.

They do. I live near the country’s best cinema.

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.

Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Synchronise watches:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/989409887322025984

on a point of order the council is Sutton (no Cheam)

old_labour · April 2018

Labour Whips
‏Verified account @labourwhips
13m13 minutes ago

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RoyalBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On illegal immigration targets of course there were targets, indeed why would anyone think otherwise.

The problem I see is that Amber Rudd seemed clueless on it and to be honest, seems out of her depth at present. TM was strict but if the media think that by attacking Rudd and TM over being strict on illegal immigration is a negative issue, they misjudge the public mood.

Windrush is a absolute disaster and wrong, but too many are conflating the issue with illegal immigration.

As far as I am concerned Amber Rudd's admission that she has known about the problem for months and that she was unable to deal with the target question is as good a reason as any for her to make her own decision to step down

Irrespective her leadership hopes are all but extinguished now
If Rudd is out, then maybe Hunt's chances are looking better. Speaking for my book.
I am annoyed with Amber and think she may have to go before the HOC today and depending on her answers she may or may not survive. As a conservative member I would not vote for Amber.

On the wider issue of TM successor I think the candidate will come from the new intake and almost certainly be female
Put your trust in Truss!
One of several to keep an eye on
In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
If by sane, you mean one populated by androids (without emotion chips).

In an ideal world, it would be Gove. Perhaps it shall be...
By sane, I mean fitted to take over as Prime Minister by virtue of long experience of the highest levels of government.

Michael Gove would be my second favourite, neck and neck with Jeremy Hunt. Amber Rudd would have been in that pack until this week (though I doubt in reality this week's events will have done her much harm with her electorate).

Boris Johnson is the wildcard. Right now his bubble looks to have burst definitively.

I certainly think that remainers (Hammond, Hunt, Davidson) quite apart from anything else need Brexit to be a fait accompli

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2018

Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then

Anazina · April 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:
Steven Gerrard is the next Rangers manager ? That’s left field..
LA Galaxy and now Sevco, Steve G does like helping out newly formed football teams get on the map.

Glasgow Rangers have a serious problem with sectarianism. Until they eject the flag waving bigots I would advise anyone who values their own reputation to steer clear. They are a great club with many decent fans ruined by a hardcore rightwing following.

RoyalBlue · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Eagles, Hunt is acceptable, though only pleasing to a goodly measure for mine coffers.

I also have the feeling your local cinema has a seat perfectly moulded to you.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Blue/Mr. Walker, oh, piffle and pish to your trembling over-sensitivity.

"Countenance comes from a French word for "behavior," but it has become a fancy term for either the expression of a face or the face itself: "He had a puzzled countenance," or "what a charming countenance!" Countenance can also be a verb meaning to tolerate or approve." [From googling the expression]

We were both joking you silly billy

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. Meeks, not the same odds, but a similar thing happened with Swinson.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Blue, aye. But some would take that nonsense seriously... alas.

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Meeks, not the same odds, but a similar thing happened with Swinson.

I know people who made a very tidy sum indeed backing Vince Cable to follow Tim Farron. I'm kicking myself that I didn't follow them because their logic was impeccable and came to pass.

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then

It's about quotas. Rudd will say no doubt that "measures are not taken arbitrarily to meet targets" and everyone will move on.

A strong majority of British people would encourage the deportation of illegal immigrants.

rkrkrk · April 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.

You make good points.
My view of Hammond's provocative stance to the Brexiteers was basically that he'd given up on any leadership ambitions and was trying to be a good chancellor.
I haven't bet against him. My book is +ve the field and only negative a few (Priti Patel, Damian Green, and by far the worst JRM)

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. Meeks, I only made a little but got very lucky with timing. I'd backed Swinson the day before Farron announced he was stepping down. Her odds tumbled and I hedged. After that, excepting Davey (I think) I was online and heard live as each chap declined to stand, so I kept backing the remaining candidates before the bookies could update the odds

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.
You make good points.
My view of Hammond's provocative stance to the Brexiteers was basically that he'd given up on any leadership ambitions and was trying to be a good chancellor.
I haven't bet against him. My book is +ve the field and only negative a few (Priti Patel, Damian Green, and by far the worst JRM)

Basically my book as well.

I thin you can do worse than focus on those people who WANT to be PM. At least WIlliamson WANTS to be PM, which is much more than a few similarly priced contenders

tlg86 · April 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.
You make good points.
My view of Hammond's provocative stance to the Brexiteers was basically that he'd given up on any leadership ambitions and was trying to be a good chancellor.
I haven't bet against him. My book is +ve the field and only negative a few (Priti Patel, Damian Green, and by far the worst JRM)
Basically my book as well.

I thin you can do worse than focus on those people who WANT to be PM. At least WIlliamson WANTS to be PM, which is much more than a few similarly priced contenders

Just remember, Michael Gove said he didn't want to be PM during the EU referendum.

felix · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then

I think Labour are making a mistake to focus on illegal immigration.

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

tlg86 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.
You make good points.
My view of Hammond's provocative stance to the Brexiteers was basically that he'd given up on any leadership ambitions and was trying to be a good chancellor.
I haven't bet against him. My book is +ve the field and only negative a few (Priti Patel, Damian Green, and by far the worst JRM)
Basically my book as well.

I thin you can do worse than focus on those people who WANT to be PM. At least WIlliamson WANTS to be PM, which is much more than a few similarly priced contenders
Just remember, Michael Gove said he didn't want to be PM during the EU referendum.

I don't think he every started, back then.
Now might be different.

TOPPING · April 2018

Interesting listening to a presentation by Google. Be afraid be very afraid.

Theuniondivvie · April 2018

Anazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:
Steven Gerrard is the next Rangers manager ? That’s left field..
LA Galaxy and now Sevco, Steve G does like helping out newly formed football teams get on the map.
Glasgow Rangers have a serious problem with sectarianism. Until they eject the flag waving bigots I would advise anyone who values their own reputation to steer clear. They are a great club with many decent fans ruined by a hardcore rightwing following.

At the risk of torturing a metaphor, a bit like Leavers and the fruitcakes, racists and loonies that inconveniently got them over the line. The flag waving bigots represent a very handy chunk of season ticket money; can the 'The Rangers' afford to alienate them?

TGOHF · April 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:
Steven Gerrard is the next Rangers manager ? That’s left field..
LA Galaxy and now Sevco, Steve G does like helping out newly formed football teams get on the map.

Your Sevco patter is a bit 2012 - you need to check out the #Res12 moonhowling if you want to be down with the inbred kids on the street.

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/26/security-alert-after-housing-ministers-aide-caught-in-sex-website-sting

No comment on the story but the photo of Dominic Raab makes him look like he's the lead in a US drama!!

TGOHF · April 2018

Soubry's tea is out

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/dup-threatens-bring-theresa-mays-government-climbs-brexit/

The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.

Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.

HYUFD · April 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Synchronise watches:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/989409887322025984
on a point of order the council is Sutton (no Cheam)

Sutton is already LD and a Tory target

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

TGOHF said:
Soubry's tea is out

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/dup-threatens-bring-theresa-mays-government-climbs-brexit/

The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.

Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.

The DUP has to threaten to; that's where it gets its political capital from. If it made clear it would NEVER vote against the government, they might as well be Tory MPs.

FF43 · April 2018

DavidL said:
I know that letters were sent to every Judge "reminding" them that what is called a "plane Stopper", where the Court grants an interim order preventing a removal, cost the country more than £10,000 and that such orders should not be granted lightly. The cost of the flight included the cost of the staff who went with the deportee.

At the present time estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the UK vary between 450k and 850k. It is, as they say, a target rich environment. Why on earth would the HO not have targets for expulsions given the present backlog will take between 10 and 20 years at the current rate? If Rudd really doesn't have targets now there is something far wrong with the way she runs her department. The number of expulsions actually achieved, roughly 40k a year, is pathetic given the money spent.

Which is the true scandal of Windrush. Someone deported is a result. No-one cares that there are human beings who have made their lives here and are vulnerable and scared. It's all about the numbers.

CarlottaVance · April 2018

Greetings from foreign parts - anyone else having problems logging into HSBC....online seems to be down and when I got through on the phone the lady on the other end said 'everythings fine'...but then left me holding as her screen refused to load.....

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

TGOHF said:
Soubry's tea is out

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/dup-threatens-bring-theresa-mays-government-climbs-brexit/

The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.

Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.

Neither Nigel Dodds nor Anna Soubry would have any particular problem with the whole of the UK being in the customs union.

TGOHF · April 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TGOHF said:
Soubry's tea is out

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/dup-threatens-bring-theresa-mays-government-climbs-brexit/

The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.

Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.
The DUP has to threaten to; that's where it gets its political capital from. If it made clear it would NEVER vote against the government, they might as well be Tory MPs.

Very helpful to May actually.

If Soubry and Clarke want to go down in history as the Con MPs that let in Corbyn then good luck.

CarlottaVance · April 2018

And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

titter....

Today we should be getting the final YouGov poll for Queen Mary University for the London local elections a week today. I’m not sure whether Owen Jones has reliable informants at either institution, but he tweeted earlier this week that a “bad” poll for Labour was coming.

TGOHF · April 2018

You gov London poll out at 11am apparently.

BannedInParis · April 2018

Anyone else get the strong sense we're marching up the hill only to march back down again?

old_labour · April 2018

TGOHF said:
Soubry's tea is out

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/dup-threatens-bring-theresa-mays-government-climbs-brexit/

The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.

Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.

It seems to me they are saying if Northern Ireland has to stay in a customs union and single market, then the mainland will have to do the same. Could the DUP end up killing off a meaningful Brexit?

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

CarlottaVance said:
And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

You'd think this poll was gold!!! As I say there have been some big swings in previous polls for QMUL, which is I think both a product of the electorate (particularly a chunk who are relatively young, affluent, but pro-Remain) and the nature of the polling

old_labour · April 2018

CarlottaVance said:
Greetings from foreign parts - anyone else having problems logging into HSBC....online seems to be down and when I got through on the phone the lady on the other end said 'everythings fine'...but then left me holding as her screen refused to load.....

Mad Vlad up to his usual tricks?

CarlottaVance · April 2018

And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

old_labour said:

CarlottaVance said:
Greetings from foreign parts - anyone else having problems logging into HSBC....online seems to be down and when I got through on the phone the lady on the other end said 'everythings fine'...but then left me holding as her screen refused to load.....
Mad Vlad up to his usual tricks?

Did cross my mind.....

Sean_F · April 2018

CarlottaVance said:
And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

titter....

Today we should be getting the final YouGov poll for Queen Mary University for the London local elections a week today. I’m not sure whether Owen Jones has reliable informants at either institution, but he tweeted earlier this week that a “bad” poll for Labour was coming.

I'd be very surprised if it didn't put Labour at least 10% ahead.

HYUFD · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then

As of this morning of the leading leadership contenders Rudd is still ahead on -34%, then Boris on -37% then Rees-Mogg on -38%, Williamson is on -57%, Hunt is on -63%

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Amber_Rudd

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Jacob_Rees_Mogg

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Gavin_Williamson

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Jeremy_Hunt

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

titter....

Today we should be getting the final YouGov poll for Queen Mary University for the London local elections a week today. I’m not sure whether Owen Jones has reliable informants at either institution, but he tweeted earlier this week that a “bad” poll for Labour was coming.

I'd be very surprised if it didn't put Labour at least 10% ahead.

10pp ahead would be terrible

CarlottaVance · April 2018

Lord Haskell fails to ask;

If the EU won't trust us, why should we trust them?

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/defence/defence-funding/opinion/house-lords/94674/lord-haskel-future-uk-eu-collaboration

OldKingCole · April 2018

TGOHF said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TGOHF said:
Soubry's tea is out

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/dup-threatens-bring-theresa-mays-government-climbs-brexit/

The DUP has warned it will bring down Theresa May's Government if Northern Ireland is forced to stay in the Single Market or Customs Union after Brexit.

Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, said his party would vote against the Government if any of its "red lines" on Brexit were crossed.
The DUP has to threaten to; that's where it gets its political capital from. If it made clear it would NEVER vote against the government, they might as well be Tory MPs.
Very helpful to May actually.

If Soubry and Clarke want to go down in history as the Con MPs that let in Corbyn then good luck.

Compared to Cameron being the Tory PM who let in May?

Tykejohnno · April 2018

felix said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then
I think Labour are making a mistake to focus on illegal immigration.

Just to prove these nutcases will not be cracking down on any immigration.

HYUFD · April 2018

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then
As of this morning of the leading leadership contenders Rudd is still ahead on -34%, then Boris on -37% then Rees-Mogg on -38%, Williamson is on -57%, Hunt is on -63%

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Amber_Rudd

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Boris_Johnson

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Jacob_Rees_Mogg

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Gavin_Williamson

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Jeremy_Hunt

Gove is on -67%, May on -43%. So Rudd, Mogg and Boris do better than May, Williamson, Hunt and Gove do worse.

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Michael_Gove

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Theresa_May

Casino_Royale · April 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.

I know you might not believe me, but this honestly has nothing to do with his views on Brexit: Hammond offers nothing May doesn’t.

He has a political tin ear, and lacks people skills and empathy. He is very cerebral and more mathematical, and he’s a bit better at answering questions, but they are otherwise two very similar people. His flaws come across in Fallout, and I’ve had that corroborated by a friend who used to work for him.

Davidson, Hunt or Hinds are all Remainers who’d make much better candidates, even though they have tougher routes to the premiership.

CarlottaVance · April 2018

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

titter....

Today we should be getting the final YouGov poll for Queen Mary University for the London local elections a week today. I’m not sure whether Owen Jones has reliable informants at either institution, but he tweeted earlier this week that a “bad” poll for Labour was coming.

I'd be very surprised if it didn't put Labour at least 10% ahead.

Per Number Cruncher:

What would “bad” mean? So far there have been two YouGov/QMUL London polls, both putting Labour about 25 points ahead on council voting intention. That would equate to a swing to Labour of about 6 per cent from 2014. The national polls have shifted slightly since these polls were done, so that might imply that the swing has fallen to 4-5 per cent.

That would be smaller than the London swing between the 2015 and 2017 general elections, which was 6.3 per cent. But crucially (as far as the narrative is concerned) it would mean – if the swing were even across the capital – that Labour would fall short in all but one of its target boroughs.

TGOHF · April 2018

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.
I know you might not believe me, but this honestly has nothing to do with his views on Brexit: Hammond offers nothing May doesn’t.

He has a political tin ear, and lacks people skills and empathy. He is very cerebral and more mathematical, and he’s a bit better at answering questions, but they are otherwise two very similar people. His flaws come across in Fallout, and I’ve had that corroborated by a friend who used to work for him.

Davidson, Hunt or Hinds are all Remainers who’d make much better candidates, even though they have tougher routes to the premiership.

Hammond has neither the personality, the friends or the minerals to win a leadership election.

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

CarlottaVance said:
Lord Haskell fails to ask;

If the EU won't trust us, why should we trust them?

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/defence/defence-funding/opinion/house-lords/94674/lord-haskel-future-uk-eu-collaboration

It's a bit difficult for foaming Leavers to proclaim how much they hate the EU and then turn round to complain that for some reason they're having difficulty getting EU member states to continue to co-operate with them on other matters.

It's almost as if Brexit was designed to disrupt co-operation between European states on every level.

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.
I know you might not believe me, but this honestly has nothing to do with his views on Brexit: Hammond offers nothing May doesn’t.

He has a political tin ear, and lacks people skills and empathy. He is very cerebral and more mathematical, and he’s a bit better at answering questions, but they are otherwise two very similar people. His flaws come across in Fallout, and I’ve had that corroborated by a friend who used to work for him.

Davidson, Hunt or Hinds are all Remainers who’d make much better candidates, even though they have tougher routes to the premiership.

The first seven words were sufficient.

Sean_F · April 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

titter....

Today we should be getting the final YouGov poll for Queen Mary University for the London local elections a week today. I’m not sure whether Owen Jones has reliable informants at either institution, but he tweeted earlier this week that a “bad” poll for Labour was coming.

I'd be very surprised if it didn't put Labour at least 10% ahead.
10pp ahead would be terrible

It would only be bad compared to expectations. By comparison, the Conservatives led by 10% in 1978, and Labour led by 10% in 1994.

Roger · April 2018

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/americans-startled-by-spectacle-of-president-who-can-speak-english?mbid=nl_Borowitz 042518&CNDID=23335673&spMailingID=13384830&spUserID=MTMzMTgwODIxODQ0S0&spJobID=1382218759&spReportId=MTM4MjIxODc1OQS2

TGOHF · April 2018

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
And on topic...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/989418745507598337

titter....

Today we should be getting the final YouGov poll for Queen Mary University for the London local elections a week today. I’m not sure whether Owen Jones has reliable informants at either institution, but he tweeted earlier this week that a “bad” poll for Labour was coming.

I'd be very surprised if it didn't put Labour at least 10% ahead.
Per Number Cruncher:

What would “bad” mean? So far there have been two YouGov/QMUL London polls, both putting Labour about 25 points ahead on council voting intention. That would equate to a swing to Labour of about 6 per cent from 2014. The national polls have shifted slightly since these polls were done, so that might imply that the swing has fallen to 4-5 per cent.

That would be smaller than the London swing between the 2015 and 2017 general elections, which was 6.3 per cent. But crucially (as far as the narrative is concerned) it would mean – if the swing were even across the capital – that Labour would fall short in all but one of its target boroughs.

So Labour likely to be 20+ points ahead in London on this poll ?

OldKingCole · April 2018

Tykejohnno said:

felix said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then
I think Labour are making a mistake to focus on illegal immigration.
Just to prove these nutcases will not be cracking down on any immigration.

Like Big G upthread I don’t think the British people like illegal immigration at all and they’re not that keen on immigration atnyway. However if there is one defining characteristic of the English it is that they don’t like injustice. Something to do with the rule of law.

And injustice and unfairness are the defining characteristics of the Windrush (etc) scandal.

Fenster · April 2018

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In a sane world, Philip Hammond would be clear favourite. When Theresa May steps down, which may not be for a while and possibly with Brexit a fait acoompli, his virtues might have been reappraised even by the nuttier Brexiters.

His odds are far too long in my view. Yes, I have made sure I've got him onside.
He's so unpopular with the members if the Con Home polls are to be believed.
If we end up staying in the customs union/soft Brexit - he is going to be the fall guy who gets blamed. If we get hard Brexit and the economy deteriorates - he is going to be blamed.

Struggling to imagine a future where the Con membership views him positively enough to make him leader.
Alistair Darling was 100/1 to succeed Gordon Brown at one point. When the contest came around, he was looking like a very credible contender when he announced his intention not to stand.

The Conservative membership is currently blinded by Brexit. There will come a point - hard to imagine I know, but bear with me - when they realise that Brexit isn't everything. At that point, Philip Hammond will be reappraised at least partially. The question is how much and whether that's before the next leadership election.
I know you might not believe me, but this honestly has nothing to do with his views on Brexit: Hammond offers nothing May doesn’t.

He has a political tin ear, and lacks people skills and empathy. He is very cerebral and more mathematical, and he’s a bit better at answering questions, but they are otherwise two very similar people. His flaws come across in Fallout, and I’ve had that corroborated by a friend who used to work for him.

Davidson, Hunt or Hinds are all Remainers who’d make much better candidates, even though they have tougher routes to the premiership.

Hammond is the man known round the office as 'CHEESE DICK'.

There's no coming back from that.

AlastairMeeks · April 2018

The swing won't be even across the capital. There are areas of London where the Conservatives should be gaining seats.

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. Fenster, Oliver Cromwell's successor and son was known as Queen Dick. His rule was neither long nor glorious.

TheWhiteRabbit · April 2018

The 2014 results Mike uses above are on total votes, which makes comparison much more difficult. The 2014 results on a highest vote basis were 37.4% to 26.1% which should be more comparable.

CarlottaVance · April 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:
Lord Haskell fails to ask;

If the EU won't trust us, why should we trust them?

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/defence/defence-funding/opinion/house-lords/94674/lord-haskel-future-uk-eu-collaboration
It's a bit difficult for foaming Leavers to proclaim how much they hate the EU and then turn round to complain that for some reason they're having difficulty getting EU member states to continue to co-operate with them on other matters.

Its a bit difficult for foaming Remainers to demand we unilaterally offer things like security treaties or citizens rights then act astonished when the EU banks the proposal and simply asks for more.

Its almost as if they believe only the UK acts in bad faith....

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2018

The standard of journalism at Sky is so poor. They do not seem to understand the difference between illegal immigration and Windrush. Samantha Jane Mee interviewed the daughter of Clayton Barnes who left the UK in 2010 and was refused re-entry in 2013. Mee asked Clayton Barnes daughter if the Home Office had been in touch and the daughter affirmed they had but was annoyed because the home office asked her for her father's name and she responded by saying because he had been on television they should know. !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Both Mee and the daughter wanted instant answers on compensation which I understand will need legislation to be put in place

Gardenwalker · April 2018

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:
Lord Haskell fails to ask;

If the EU won't trust us, why should we trust them?

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/defence/defence-funding/opinion/house-lords/94674/lord-haskel-future-uk-eu-collaboration
It's a bit difficult for foaming Leavers to proclaim how much they hate the EU and then turn round to complain that for some reason they're having difficulty getting EU member states to continue to co-operate with them on other matters.
Its a bit difficult for foaming Remainers to demand we unilaterally offer things like security treaties or citizens rights then act astonished when the EU banks the proposal and simply asks for more.

Its almost as if they believe only the UK acts in bad faith....

And yet, it appears that the U.K. is doing all the asking.

TGOHF · April 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:
The standard of journalism at Sky is so poor. They do not seem to understand the difference between illegal immigration and Windrush. Samantha Jane Mee interviewed the daughter of Clayton Barnes who left the UK in 2010 and was refused re-entry in 2013. Mee asked Clayton Barnes daughter if the Home Office had been in touch and the daughter affirmed they had but was annoyed because the home office asked her for her father's name and she responded by saying because he had been on television they should know. !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Both Mee and the daughter wanted instant answers on compensation which I understand will need legislation to be put in place

Sky news has gone full Guardian lefty libtard handwringer - unwatchable these days.

Morris_Dancer · April 2018

Mr. NorthWales, *Sarah Jane Mee.

That does sound reminiscent of when Sky wet itself because the Coalition Government hadn't magically evacuated every British oil worker from Libya. There was a fun moment on Sky a few years ago (the old hand who made the comment has, like most others, since left) when a reporter trying to drum up sympathy for the migrant tide reported on how far they'd travelled and how many countries they'd gone through. The old hand in the studio commented that at that point they weren't refugees but shopping for the country of their choice (or words to that effect).

Edited extra bit: Mr. Flashman (deceased), it's far to the left of the BBC most of the time. Faisal Islam is not impressive (0.1% spike in inflation etc), and it's unfortunate that the excellent Tim Marshall left (for foreign affairs what Andrew Neil is for domestic politics). Mind you, ITV's got the Paul Brand, the political jester who reckoned the Grenfell fire raises questions about what sort of country we are and who governs us, and who nodded approvingly during a soft interview with someone who wanted different entry requirements to Oxbridge based on background. Worst of all was the Russian propaganda that was spun when Porton Down "couldn't identify" Russia as the source of the nerve agent. Which isn't their job. And which ITV News said, the preceding night, wasn't their job.

Annoyingly, all broadcast media is at least a bit suspect. ITV did, apparently, cover the anti-Semitism debate properly. Sky didn't mention it, reportedly, and the BBC buried it at the end (and covering it only briefly) of their news at ten.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2018

OldKingCole said:

Tykejohnno said:

felix said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Diane Abbott has UQ request granted on Amber Rudd at 10.30am

That's Rudd safe then
I think Labour are making a mistake to focus on illegal immigration.
Just to prove these nutcases will not be cracking down on any immigration.
Like Big G upthread I don’t think the British people like illegal immigration at all and they’re not that keen on immigration atnyway. However if there is one defining characteristic of the English it is that they don’t like injustice. Something to do with the rule of law.

And injustice and unfairness are the defining characteristics of the Windrush (etc) scandal.

Absolutely agree and Windrush needs dealing with urgently but the media and labour are turning this into an argument on immigration more widely and that will not be popular

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